Following an improbable, highly exciting three game win streak against Western Conference teams best characterized as somewhere between good and excellent; the Cavs are one game outside of the 8th seed in the East. Six of their remaining eleven March games are against teams with winning percentages below five-hundred. Anderson Varejao should return later this month. The trade deadline is a few days away – how should the Cavs respond?
While I’m not a proponent of “tanking”, the Cavs still need to focus on the future. I am super psyched about the three recent wins, especially against OKC (seriously – who saw that coming?), but the sixteen games in twenty four days in April is daunting and could very well leave this young Cleveland team outside-looking-in regardless of their mid-March moves. For me, the win streak hasn’t changed the view on trade deadline questions.
Trading Sessions still seems to be the right move. After this season, his player option likely won’t be picked up. Acquiring a first round draft pick beats the value of twenty-seven more games of Ramon.
Moving Jamison as part of a three team trade, even at the expense of taking back a contract with a year or two left on it, can have benefits. If the right deal doesn’t surface though; move on, enjoy the rest of Antawn’s time in Cleveland, and try free agency this summer.
Don’t trade anything that could be useful in the future, solely for a 2012 playoff push. Chris Kaman trade rumors come to mind.
I look forward to hearing other’s thoughts on the win streak and if it changes your perceptions of the 2012 trade deadline.
Someone retrieve my diatribe about how “2016 is a horrible goal” from the comment monster, will you please?
Mallory -
Have you watched Lamb, Rivers, or Beal play? Lamb and Rivers are top 5 talents in last years draft. Did I say all 3 were going to be stars? No, but all 3 are scorers that can create their own shots and upgrade the most glaring need on our roster. Would you rather:
- Get swept by the Bulls (avg per game differential -30 against them this yr)/win maybe 1 home game vs the Heat (avg per game differential -16) and draft Meyers “Robin Lopez Jr” Leonard OR
- Miss the playoffs and draft one of the 3 mentioned SGs
What Cavs team do you honestly think would be better off in 2013? Better yet, who are you even targeting in the draft if the Cavs make the playoffs and have a mid round pick? Or does your prisoner of the moment mentality not allow you the ability to plan that far out?
Wilson Chandler @ $11m, seriously? Kevin Martin signing? I hear the Magic may need a new GM…you could be a part of the team that watches Howard walk right out the door because they have a roster of middling overpaid talent and no flexibility.
Sometimes I think there is no way you could actually believe some of the things you say. Other times I think you are very smart and are purposely taking such opposing views in order to generate a debate, and if that assumption is correct I applaud you for a job well done of baiting the highly opinionated Cavs following here into a discussion.
I think that the Cavs have a huge shot at winning the games this year guys… We sure have acted like a team lately and I feel like Sessions has made a huge contrubution to our team… I think we might have a chance to make it to the playoffs this year because the knicks are losing and we are winning so why talk about the future when we still have a chance this year i mean we are only 1 game behind and still like 29 games to go… We seem to have done well right now and im excited that we will maybe get in this year.. if not get a good draft pick and help irving a little more and then maybe win next year
John -
What proof do you have that Lamb, Rivers, Or Beal is surefire pros? You don’t. Remember Wesley Johnson? I’m sure Minnesota does too. You have no way of knowing how good those guys will be.
Frankly, I think you’re misinterpreting my desires to see us win as bring prisoner of the moment. I have always said that I am fine with losing, but prefer to win. If we must lose, let it happen naturally.
Hoopsdogg made a great point that is trapped in the monster right now (Kevin has to unleash it) about just how good Kyrie is. He furthers his excellent point by explained that the situation OKC is in means that, eventually, one of their guys is going to have to take a huge pay cut or just walk. This is no way to build a team beyond four years.
Obviously I want us to get as much talent as possible – it’s silly to think that I’m so confined to the now that I think we’re on the verge of greatness – we’re not. But to assume that all three of the guys you mentioned will be stars is just silly – you know as well as we all do that chances are only one of them will be a real impact player. Even in the best of drafts there are only a couple guys that you’d consider superstar talents.
I’ll admit I like playing devil’s advocate – I think we’ve had some excellent discussion here so far. I just wish everyone would tone down the full on attacks.
Whoooooops – Lamb Beal or Rivers ARE surefire pros. Gaaaahhhh I need to wake the heck up.
Antawns un-reproducible shooting and turnstyle defense won’t be missed, especially from a mentoring standpoint. He may be able to lend insight to young guys about how to behave off the court, but he can teach them little of value on it.
Also mallory, Winning and losing culture to me seems to be more about the ethos and personality of the leaders on a team. When the most talented guys on the team take their profession seriously, you have a winning culture, when they care more about bling and ho’s and branding, you don’t. Kyrie and Verajoa are both extremely serious about their profession, and I don’t think a year or two of missing the playoffs would change that. I could be wrong, but I have faith in both of those guys to ensure talent gets utilized properly.
The clearest path forward to me is trading pieces that won’t be here when we are contending for pieces that will, instead of watching them walk so we can overspend on FA’s who may or may not be redundant to our young core, when we can maintain cap flexibility and spend on FA’s when we are actually a piece or two away.
Matt –
I agree COMPLETELY that we’ve got two very professional players in Kyrie and Verajao. What that means for the future remains to be seen (obviously)
But would you trade Jamison for a second round pick? I really don’t think I would. The only way I see Antawn going is if we can pull off a huge trade. I happen to think a big shakeup for a guy that could potentially be around for a little longer is probably our best move. How it gets done, I don’t know.
I say maybe trade Sessions but if we win tomorrow then I dont know if we should
If they don’t trade Sessions now, we will watch him walk away for nothing. It wouldn’t be a good move for a team that’s trying to gather assets. Plus, his trade value is pretty high at the moment.
HoopsDogg,
I unspammed your post.
I don’t think anyone is trying to wait until 2016 to be a contender, but realistically in the 2014 post-season, Kyrie will have just turned 22. Has a 22 year old ever lead a team to a championship? Also, I disagree that anyone doesn’t know how good Kyrie is. I think everyone acknowledges that he is awesome, but what does that mean? They need to go all in trying to create a contender in the next two seasons? I don’t know how that makes any sense. If the Cavs win 48 games in 2013 – 2014 and have accumulated 4 or 5 other solid under 25 players, and still have a great cap situation, do you really think Kyrie is going to be itching to leave?
The Thunder do have an issue with having so many max to near-max players, but there are alot worse problems to have.
HoopsDogg,
To some extent, I’m more concerned with signing free agents to 4 year contracts this summer or in summer of 2013. Once Baron Davis comes off Cleveland’s minimum salary hold, the Cavs only have 3 players under contract for $19 million in 2013 – 2014. Even accounting for 2012 and 2013 1st round draft picks, they’re going to need to pay someone currently unknown $25 – $30 million in 2013 – 2014. If those contracts extend until 2015 – 2016 or 2016 – 2017, then the Cavs really have an issue with rookie extensions butting up against the luxury tax. It’s the issue that New Orleans ran into when they extended Paul and Utah when they extended Williams and Millsap.
I’m not sure exactly what you’re getting at in your comment, but it seems totally reasonable for the Cavs to:
- Trade Sessions and Varejao and acquire draft picks & a contract. Get Varejao back. Sign a couple of small free agents. Win 44 games next year.
- Make a couple more 1st round draft picks and sign another middle of the road free agent in summer of 2013. Win 49 games in 2013 – 2014, as Kyrie firmly takes his place as a top 5 PG.
- Approach the 2014 trade deadline with Kyrie, Varejao, Thompson, Gee, the five players that have been selected in the 2012 and 2013 first rounds of the draft, and one big expiring contract. They’re already a really solid young, up and coming team, and they can either try to swing a big trade or sign a big free agent in 2014, with a lot clearer picture of what their future extensions look like.
I don’t think anyone is advocating for a prolonged, depressing re-build, just a little patience and hopefully some extra first round draft picks at this trade deadline.
@ Mallory
As far as a trade for Jamison; if there’s a way to pull off this rumored trade of Josh Smith and Marvin Williams for Sessions and Jamison that I’ve heard about, I think the Cavs should do it. Even throwing in the Miami Heat 2013 1st round pick, if needed. Josh Smith would replace Antwan’s scoring. Williams shores up the 3. He’s solid on both sides of the ball and shooting %40 on 3pt this season. Smith and Williams are known quantities, as opposed to unknown lottery picks (certainly, we’ve had that discussion). Best of all, if I’ve done the math correctly, making that trade puts the Cavs at 47.3 mil for next season. Additionally, they could cut another 4.7 off that by not picking up the option on Daniel Gibson. Although, I think they should. Of course they’ll have to cut into that number by resigning Gee. I have no idea how much that will cost.
I think this would leave the Cavs with SG as their only major hole. But they would have their own draft pick, and cap space to make a FA signing (Nick Young?).
When Has a 22 year old ever led a team to a championship: Magic Johnson (team admittedly already loaded). But LeBron led Cleveland to a finals at 22. Shaq was 23 his first finals, as was Dwayne Wade (Winner/MVP). Tim Duncan was 23. Hakeem Olajawan was 24. Kareem was 24. Bill Rusell 23. Tony Parker 21, 23, and 25 (debateable equivalency). The scary thing about this: only Magic, Wade, and Parker were guards. Tony Parker probably most resembles Kyrie out of this group, but he had Duncan, Robinson, and Manu. Kyrie’s a better shooter though. I realize we’re discussing rarified air here, but Kyrie’s rookie season is surpassing some of these guys’.
HoopsDogg,
Besides Lebron, each of those players either was a top ten big man of all time or played with a top ten big man of all time. The Cavs need to find one of those…
I guess one thing we can agree on and really the thing that has made the trade deadline so important (twice I’ve posted something deadline related that’s drawn 60+ comments) is that Kyrie is great. Re-building has been made tons easier, and the important re-building decisions came so much sooner, due to drafting him with the first lottery pick of the re-build. It’s very exciting.
Agreed on the big man thing, but it is no longer a big man’s league. Well, maybe it is if you count Nowitzki.
Posted a comment on lottery/all-star/ROY statistics – Why does it say my “comment is awaiting moderation?”
There is something I think many people are missing regarding Sessions not picking up his player option to stay with the Cavs. The teams that need a PG next year for the most part are over the CAP. They will not be able to pay him much more than his player option if they can even pay as much. I don’t see him getting big money to go elsewhere and isn’t that why most of us expect him to opt out of Cleveland?
My comment seems to be on some form of a “timeout punishment” so here’s the gist of my response:
4 ROY’s in last 50 years came from outside the top 10: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Rookie_of_the_Year_Award
Chance of drafting an all-star in the draft: http://www.dollarsforballers.com/draft/allstarsdraft.html
Draw your own conclusions
Jag, I expect him to opt out of cleveland because he will make at least 5 million/yr somewhere, and that is more than the cavs should spend on a back-up to Kyrie. Also, if sessions has the option to play here or elsewhere for a similar contract, he’ll likely pick the team he has a chance to start with. A.K.A. elsewhere.
the MLE is still at 5 million or so, so there will be teams after him for at least that much.
I’d hate to see Sessions go-love his hustle. But I suppose I would rather get something of value for him now while he’s getting attention than lose him to free agency. As much as Jamison aggravates me with some of his quirks (erratic shooting/poor free throw %),he is that steady veteran hand on a young team that we can’t afford to lose.Let him retire as a Cav. Can’t we just bundle Casspi, Hollins, Erden and Samuels for an average big man who works his ASS off every night? A junk yard dog like Reggie Evans or Tyler Hansbrough. Ahh, wishful thinking.
The mid level exception is $3M for teams that are over the CAP and paying luxury tax, like the Lakers.
It is $5M for teams over the CAP and under the tax threshold.
My point is that if the Cavs want to keep Sessions it won’t take much more than the $4.5M he is already getting to do so.The only teams under the CAP that might be interested are Utah, Portland and Phoenix. Utah has little room and would have to not re-sign CJ Miles. Portland will be limited by what they end up paying Batum. If Nash goes back to Phoenix why would Session go there, plus they have the rights to Aaron Brooks. Ramon might not really have that many options.
Given Jag’s points, The Cavs could keep Ramon and sign and trade him in the offseason if they desired.
You could probably put NO and Atlanta on that list of needing a PG. NO will be well under the cap, and Atlanta can still use their amnesty. If the waived Johnson, they’re at 40 mil. The Cavs are running a risk by not trading him now.
OK, scratch that about NO. They might be satisfied with Jarrett Jack. He’s actually having a very comparable season to Sessions.
I just pray that Ramon Sessions doesn’t get traded. He’s so calm and professional and does an Excellent job of backing up Kyrie. They both are great point guards, so it really wouldn’t matter to me who started. I think Kyrie does better at the game winning shot though. I just feel why take a chance getting rid of Ramon, when we already have a quality point guard. The kid has been moved so much it’s terrible. He doesn’t have any Drama issues. He’s one of my favorite players, and I just hope we can keep him in Cleveland. Ramon is very unselfish and gets everyone involved, professional, plays hard, and doesn’t have a problem coming off the bench. If you get a point guard coming out of college, we will have problems, because they’ll want to be in the starting line-up, and that’s not happening with Kyrie doing so well. So, let’s just wait for the draft and leave everyone alone and things will work themselves out. Let’s not Ask for trouble.