Destination: 2013, Scenario 2
2012-01-26
In this second installment of potential paths to turn the Cavs into a rising, 50 win team by 2013, the focus will be on several trades for this year.
First though, I want to discuss my expertise with the Collective Bargaining Agreement, or more precisely, my lack of expertise. Case in point is that in the first Destination: 2013 Scenario, the issue of “front-loading” contracts drew some skepticism. I should have referred to “signing bonuses”, which may be allowable (see here and here). Ultimately it’s not important whether the “front-loading” was legal or not; if the contracts were constructed normally, the Cavs’ salaries go up by $2.2 million in 2013 – 2014 and instead of Omri Casspi as backup SF, the scenario is forced to go with “2013 Miami 1st rounder”. Essentially, there’s minimal difference. And that’s the important point; any CBA misapplications in these posts should be minor enough to not affect the big picture. If this proves untrue, I am prepared for a public scolding.
In this scenario, three trades will continue stocking the Cavs’ cupboard with young prospects. These trades are:
Antawn Jamison to Charlotte for Desagana Diop, Matt Carroll, Derrick Brown, and Portland’s 2013 1st round pick (owned by Charlotte) – This is a salary dump for Charlotte. They’re able to take the $11 million they owe Diop and Carroll off the books for 2012 – 2013. They get hometown guy Antawn Jamison earlier than planned (Jamison has discussed a desire to finish his career with Charlotte). They would have nearly $25 million in cap space available in the summer of 2012 for Michael Jordan to pursue a big free agent in addition to re-signing Jamison and D.J. Augustin. For this flexibility, Charlotte’s price isn’t too high; they give up a kind-of-young, kind-of-decent small forward and a future, late first round pick. The Cavs get those assets in exchange for the right to overpay two players for a year. Mychel Thompson and Luke Harangody would be waived.
Ramon Sessions and Cavs 2012 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City for Cole Aldrich and Reggie Jackson – The Thunder are a team trying to win a championship this season, and a season-ending injury to Eric Maynor has left them with a roster hole. Enter Cleveland to the rescue! Sessions is an experienced option to spell Russell Westbrook for 15 minutes during the regular season and 8 minutes every playoff game. OKC parts with two young pieces they don’t need. Cole Aldrich was a lottery pick just 18 months ago, and despite struggles in limited NBA time, he was very effective in a D-League stint last year; finishing third in blocks per game and defensive rating and fifth in defensive rebounding percentage. In two D-League playoff wins, he averaged 12.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks. He’s big, young, & cheap and a more appealing back-up center option than what the Cavs currently have. Reggie Jackson was the 24th pick in last year’s draft, and the Cavs could take a look at him as a long-term backup to Irving.
Cavs 2012 1st round draft pick plus Hornets 2012 2nd round draft pick (Cavs owned) and Portland 2013 1st round draft pick (Cavs owned, see above) to team with #3 draft pick in 2012 draft –For now, I’m staying the course of previous posts and assuming that the Cavs win 25 games and end up with the #8 pick in the draft (this thought is fading quickly. I may have to recalibrate after the back-to-back with Boston). The Hornets pick will be around #35 and the Portland pick should be in the 20 – 25 range. A third team would be brought in offering a late 1st round pick (let’s say 24th) for the 33rd and 35th picks this year. So the Cavs’ primary partner in this trade ends up with #8 and #24 in 2012 and #23 in 2013 for the #3 and #33 in 2012.
This seems reasonable to me, considering how redundant the 2012 draft will be for big men. ESPN projects 7 of the top 13 picks as power forwards, with 11 of the top 15 as centers or power forwards. The #3 pick this year will likely not be viewed as a “mega-star waiting to happen”. There is a relatively good chance that the team at #3 can say, “there will be someone we like at #8, plus we get two other decent picks…let’s take the trade.”
This scenario is counting on it and with the third pick in the 2012 draft, the Cavs select Harrison Barnes. The Cavs fill the roster with one-year contracts to Derrick Brown and others (Ray Allen for 1 year, $8 million anyone?), and have an up-and-down 2012 – 2013.
Heading into the summer of 2013 (approximate $62 million cap), Cleveland’s existing obligations (and salaries) would be Anderson Varejao ($9.1 million), Kyrie Irving ($5.9 million), Harrison Barnes ($4.6 million), Tristan Thompson ($4.3 million), Cole Aldrich ($3.2 million), and Reggie Jackson ($1.3 million). After almost knocking off the Heat in the first round of the 2013 playoffs (ultimately wearing them down, leading to a third straight Finals defeat), the Cavs use the 15th pick in the draft to choose Brazilian seven-footer, Fab Melo out of Syracuse. Melo and the other 1st round pick total $3 million. Omri Casspi’s option would not be picked up, and Alonzo Gee was re-signed after 2011 – 2012, starting at $1.5 million per year. Finally, Daniel Gibson would be kept at $3 million per year. The team’s commitment to those 10 players in 2013 is $36 million; the other $26 million would be offered to:
Paul Millsap –It’s not sexy, but the acquisition adds an offensive force to the front line. A four year, $46 million contract (starting at $11 million) will take Millsap through his age 28 – 31 seasons. Last year, he averaged 17 & 8 on 58% true shooting. He has one of the better power forward jump shots and is a fierce rebounder. Utah is unable to justify spending this amount on Millsap, as they consider the upcoming contract extensions for recent top 5 picks Derrick Favors & Enes Kanter.
Kevin Martin – To reach an even higher level, Cleveland pursues a fourth source of offense along Irving, Millsap, and Barnes. Martin has been one of the NBA’s best scoring two-guards for over a half-decade. A high-salary, short-term offer is made for 2 years and $20 million, similar to, but more pricy than recent contracts for Jamal Crawford and Richard Hamilton. Houston decides it’s not justified to tie up this money on a thirty year old, as they go all-in pursuing James Harden, Steph Curry, Tyreke Evans or Demar Derozan.
Tiago Splitter – With Varejao, Millsap, Tristan T, and Fab Melo in fold; this is a luxury buy. Nearly 7 feet tall, Splitter rebounds well and scores efficiently, providing a 4th big man to keep the rookie from being overly relied on. Also it’s a gimmick; once you start amassing tall Brazilians, it’s hard to stop. Andy, Tiago, and Fab can do whatever it is that giant Brazilians do in Cleveland. In order to steal him from the Spurs, the Cavs offer 4 years, $20 million (starting at $4.8). The Spurs start a rebuilding process that summer and can’t justify paying Splitter through his age 32 season.
The 2013 – 2014 roster is (ages in parantheses):
PG – Kyrie Irving (21), Reggie Jackson (23), 2013 2nd round pick, – With Irving in his 3rd year in the league, he’s makes his first Eastern Conference All Star team.
Wings – Kevin Martin (30), Harrison Barnes (21), Daniel Gibson (27), Alonzo Gee (26), Miami’s 2013 1st round draft pick – Martin and Barnes represent a huge offensive upgrade from the current roster. Gibson, Gee, and the first round pick are relied upon for defense. Barnes would be the team’s 6th man, with a defensive minded player starting over him.
Front Court – Paul Millsap (28), Anderson Varejao (31), Tristan Thompson (22), Tiago Splitter (29), Cole Aldrich (25), Fab Melo (22) – Millsap and Varejao operate as one of the league’s better starting tandems. In his age 22 season, TT has developed into a great first big man off the bench.
The team probably isn’t a future champion, but an all-star point guard, three additional quality scorers, and a deep front line – that’s a 50+ win team and the average age is only 25.
The most crucial step towards building a champion relies on trading “assets” for the “final pieces”. There are 5 players under age 25 not named Kyrie, Harrison or Tristan. There are also seven draft picks total in 2014 & 2015. Ideally some of this can be packaged with an expiring contract to acquire the right veterans to push the team over the top, similar to the Pistons acquiring Rasheed Wallace in 2004.
And there it is, through a hazy future I can see it…the 2016 NBA Champion Cleveland Cavaliers!
Ok, I just did the research. Gordon is below average for efficiency in the NBA. Thru 3 years he compares similarly to Wesley Person or Stephon Marbury. Whatever we do, we do NOT want Eric Gordon.
This is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever read. But to all those who are so high on Eric Gordon. He stinks. He’s way overrated. I watched him every game at IU. Granted I haven’t seen him in the pros as much (and he now has a max contract with NO), but he’s incredibly inefficient. He makes bad decisions with the ball. He’s just not who you want with the ball in his hands.
The Salary Floor will be at 85% in 2012-2013, and then in 2013-2014 it raises to 90%. I think James Harden is actually a very realistic scenario given what they are paying Westbrook, Perkins, and Durant. As for Millsap, if you look at his numbers as a starter outside of last year after D-Will left, (they were a mess), they’re very good. I’m probably overvaluing him at $15 million, but not by much. He’s one of the best kept secrets in the NBA. I think there are some intriguing free agents next year: Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson (offer won’t be… Read more »
Tom,
That breakdown may be scary. I wonder if that will change at all now that the deals are a little shorter and players are more frequently playing for their next contract.
James Harden was offered a max deal in the first scenario, because he’s young and that seemed necessary to pretend to get him to leave OKC. Obviously no max contracts in this scenario, except for potentially Kyrie’s eventual extension.
Kevin, Directionally, you are right on target. Ownership/management of the Cavs have to be looking to do two things. First, is to try and build a team that can, as soon as possible, be viewed by the fans as being “legitimately” competitive at the highest levels. Secondly, is to achieve organizational sustainability. It is simply “good business.” I say this to highlight something that is going on that people don’t discuss very much, and that is the progress the Cavs are making in building team depth. I have yet to see a championship caliber organization that doesn’t recognize this fact… Read more »
This is very, very interesting, but it does not look at what the other teams of the NBA could be like by then. There could be multiple “Big 3’s” in the association by this time and the roster that is projected for the Cavs would most likely not have the star power to take these teams.
Kevin, Simply trying to get to 90% in individual years shouldn’t be incentive enough to go after a guy like Gordon. As far as better options making a large offer to Spencer Hawes in hopes that his performance so far this year (22 PER, 91 Drtg) is indicative of his future value than Gordon in my mind. Or even offering Greg Oden a contract that guarantees him a bit more money than he could get elsewhere for a few really Cavs friendly options and then give him the Zydrunus treatment and limit his minutes. But there are other, frequently better,… Read more »
I’d love to see a breakdown of how players performed AFTER getting a max deal.
The full scenario above is far too complicated to happen. Also, trades packages on draft picks rarely happen. You need a partner to dance and the more complicated things get…it just doesn’t happen that way.
The Cavs are most likely going to keep their estimated #8 pick.
A trade would center on Ramon or Anderson. Yet, Andy has an amazing contract regardless of his age.
The Cavs will make one or two signings this summer to fill their salary.
Too many steps and this “hazy” scenario is a mess.
Baconisgood,
I don’t completely disagree with you on the free agents, but I think that starting next season, NBA teams will need to have salary equal to 90% of the salary cap. If that’s correct, the Cavs would need to sign $20 million worth of someone beyond the 10 players I originally listed. Millsap and Martin are good targets. This plan really relies upon future unknown trades, with the Cavs trading young talent, draft picks and expiring contracts. Martin could even be that expiring contract.
Looking at the NBA champions since Jordan retired from the Bulls you have- 5 Lakers wins- 3 with Kobe and Shaq- Kobe Drafted and Shaq signed as a FA 2 with Kobe (draft) Gasol (trade) Odom (Trade) Bynum (Draft) 3 Spurs Wins- 2 with Duncan and Robinson (drafted) 1 with Duncan, Parker and Ginobli (drafted) 1 Celtics win with Pierce, Rondo, Perkins (drafted) and Garnet/Allen (traded) 1 Heat win with Wade (drafted) and Shaq (traded) 1 Pistons win with Billups (FA), the Wallaces (trade) Rip (Trade) Tayshaun (draft) Okur (draft) 1 Dallas win with Dirk (draft) , Chandler (trade), Terry… Read more »
Kevin
i like the second scenario cuz i like harrison barnes but i think he will be a starter on the cavs. The cavs are in need of a strong long post scorer that can get his own shot thats why i like the millsap signing, second anthony parker and sessions are garbage. so i like ur idea but the cavs will probably not do any of these things and they will linger right around 8 or 9th best team in the east.
Dave, I traded up to get Harrison Barnes for two reasons. First, I never want to acquire the same player twice in these scenarios. I drafted Kidd-Gilchrist in the first scenario. Second, I decided that in each scenario the player drafted in 2012 would be the player that I cover in my monthly draft profile. Actually, I still like Kidd-Gilchrist better than Barnes. HoopsDogg, The goal of this scenario was to trade Jamison and Sessions for young players. It’s hard to find a really good destination for Jamison that doesn’t involve taking back really bad contracts. Brown is young and… Read more »
I like the Sessions and 2nd round pick for Jackson and Aldrich trade. It’s realistic and makes sense for both teams.
I still say there is some way to get Brook Lopez from the Nets, given Howard lets his contract expire this year. At that point, the Nets have very little use to overpay a 2nd option center. If it gets down to the end of the deadline and the Nets want to create salary room for Howard, maybe we can swing Jamison for Lopez in a creative way. Give them Sessions too, I don’t care…
I think we’ll have to see how Barnes plays in the tournament. He seems like he’s coasting a bit right now. As for the first trade, why would the Cavs pay $11 million in extra salary for two garbage players in order to get a late first rounder (that they could buy for $3 million), and a mediocre small forward (they already have two). I’d much rather they just bank Jamison’s cap space and make a run at some free agents this summer. I like the Cole Aldrich/Reggie Jackson pickup, and it makes sense for both sides. Great trade, even… Read more »
Fun to think about but I just can’t see the SA giving up Splitter. Duncan is on his last legs. Now the Millsap idea is intriguing. Al Jefferson, Harris, and Millsap expire at the same time with Favors up the next year. Someone might have to go.
I don’t like the musical chairs with the 1st rounders either. I’d just take the best Forward at #8 (which is a little pessimistic). Kidd-Gilchrist and Sullinger aren’t bad options.
Nupe,
I’m not extremely psyched about Barnes, but being the 6th man on a good team in his 2nd season isn’t intended as a slight. A decent number of players that are good enough to be starters come off the bench for strategic reasons. That is how Barnes’ role is intended.
@NUPE The Brazilian government might be intrigued too -and have you guys noticed how, um, “passionate” Brazilian fans are? Can you imagine the Q with a few hundred vuvuzelas? Whoa.
“Andy, Tiago, and Fab can do whatever it is that giant Brazilians do in Cleveland.”
I almost spat coffee all over the computer after reading this. Nicely done. Now I’m really curious to know what they actually do.
Getting Eric Gordon would be my dream scenario. Great scorer, good defender, solid passer although a bit undersized for the 2 guard position. But an Irving, Gordon back court would be amazingly interesting, their skills are similar but dont overlap enough to not get in each others way. And the perfect compliment to it would really be Boobie because he can shoot and play D. Call me crazy but Gordon would be perfect for the motion too. His ability to drive, shoot and play the pick and roll fits everything that the motion offense screams for. However I don t… Read more »
Tnteresting thoughts on what can happen. Not having anything sounding like a chance for a championship until 2016 is kind of depressing though. Not that I don’t agree with you, but because I do. Barnes as the teams 6th man? A) that would be great to have a prospect like him coming off the bench. B) Giving up two first round picks (one of them being top 10) and a second round pick for a 6th man seems like a steep price to pay. I guess that emplies that you don’t think Barnes is going to be that superstar that… Read more »
Any chance the Cavs try to sign an offer sheet for Eric Gordon this summer?