Like when the trees sprout small green buds and the first spores of pollen inflame ever so slightly the inside of an allergic’s nose, causing him to sneeze, I feel dread. I know the sentiment is expressed only in cautious murmurs at the moment, but let me address the thimble-sized elephant in the room: if the Cavs slip into the playoffs this season, the slate that Chris Grant scrubbed clean following LeBron’s departure last summer will begin to yellow.
This sounds counterintuitive, but in the NBA, Purgatory is not unlike Hell. The difference is Hell comes with a catapult. A .500 record and an eight seed afford a team the ability to draft Rodney Stuckeys and Robin Lopezes: players who can contribute to a good team, but should not, under any circumstances, be tasked with shouldering a team’s scoring load or playing 37 minutes a game. The problem is most .500 teams aren’t a Rodney Stuckey away from competing for a championship. The Cavaliers certainly aren’t. Which is why they need another year with access to Hell’s catapult. They need a selection in the top five of the upcoming NBA Draft.
I argue this because I subscribe to the theory that it’s incredibly difficult to compete for a championship without a superstar. This is based on what I’ve seen transpire over the last decade in the NBA. Here’s a list of the best (and, yes, in a couple cases one can quibble over my choices, but bear with me for a moment) player on each of the last 20 teams to make the NBA Finals, with the winning team on the left and the losers on the right:
2001-02: Shaquille O’Neal (Lakers) v. Jason Kidd (Nets)
2002-03: Tim Duncan (Spurs) v. Jason Kidd (Nets)
2003-04: Chauncey Billups (Pistons) v. Shaquille O’Neal (Lakers)
2004-05: Tim Duncan (Spurs) v. Chauncey Billups (Pistons)
2005-06: Dwyane Wade (Heat) v. Dirk Nowitzki (Mavs)
2006-07: Tim Duncan (Spurs) v. LeBron James (Cavs)
2007-08: Kevin Garnett (Celtics) v. Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
2008-09: Kobe Bryant (Lakers) v. Dwight Howard (Magic)
2009-10: Kobe Bryant (Lakers) v. Rajon Rondo (Celtics)
2010-11: Dirk Nowitzki (Mavs) v. LeBron James (Heat)
Most of these squads were well-constructed teams with good coaches, talented role players, and even multiple All-Stars, but they also, with the exception of the Pistons teams that made back-to-back Finals in 2004 and 2005 and the 2009-10 Boston Celtics, had at least one of the five best players in the league. I don’t think the data lies here: a team needs an elite talent to have more than a slim chance of making the NBA Finals.
The question, then, if we accept that point, is whether or not we think Kyrie Irving will become an elite talent. Predicting with any certainty what level Irving will be playing at in three or four years is like predicting the finds of a spelunking expedition without much knowledge beyond “it’s a big cave.” It’s imprudent to assume any rookie will grow into the next Chris Paul or Dwyane Wade, and a team can’t really know if they have a franchise player on their roster until he becomes one. For every Derrick Rose, there are even more Chris Boshes and Pau Gasols—players who, at a young age, exhibit the potential to become superstars, but instead become excellent second and third options. There’s no shame in being Russell Westbrook-ish, but there’s also no reason for the Cavs to assume a 19 year-old who’s looked promising in 13 professional games is a savior.
And if the ceiling for Irving ranges from “pretty darn good” to “transcendent,” then Tristan Thompson hopscotches through the rubric. Right now, he’s a baby-faced stalk of thunder without name. He has immense athleticism and toughness, but little skill. He might emerge from the gym a few summers from now with a face-up game and a 17-footer, start posting 15-9, and anchor a Cavalier defense that ranks sixth in the league. He might finish right behind Dwight Howard in the Defensive Player of the Year voting. He might never figure it out. He might be an eighth man. He might make me start disliking Canada. (It would be all his fault.) He will probably be something else entirely. A combination between Serge Ibaka and a marmoset that breaks my vocabulary.
My point is you can’t bank on players who imbibe illegally. Reality can take flame to projections. If the success of a small-market team depends principally on luck in the draft, and if a player who imprints himself upon the NBA landscape like a meteor comes along only once every couple of years, then teams like Cleveland, Sacramento, and Milwaukee should want two shots at picking in the top five.
Here’s a (subjective) list of players drafted over the last decade who are capable of being the best player on a championship contender* and their draft position:
LeBron James (2003, 1st overall)
Carmelo Anthony (2003, 3rd overall)
Dwyane Wade (2003, 5th overall)
Dwight Howard (2004, 1st overall)
Deron Williams (2005, 3rd overall)
Chris Paul (2005, 4th overall)
Kevin Durant (2007, 2nd overall)
Derrick Rose (2008, 1st overall)
And that’s it. That’s the list. Anyone else needs either an outstanding supporting cast (like Rondo had in 2009-10) or to play alongside a superstar (like Blake Griffin is with CP3) to have legitimate title hopes. LaMarcus Aldrige is one of my favorite non-Cavaliers in the NBA, and the Blazers are a talented team, but his chances of playing in the NBA Finals dipped significantly the moment Brandon Roy’s (6th overall, by the way) knees started expressing contempt for everyone who enjoyed watching Roy play basketball.
It’s important to note that none of the guys listed above were drafted outside the top 5. Plenty of good players get drafted later, obviously: Amare Stoudemire (9th), Joe Johnson (10th), Rudy Gay (8th), Rajon Rondo (21st), et al. But the ones who act as the keystones on championship squads are almost always drafted in that first handful of selections. Having more ping pong balls means a better chance at landing Carmelo, not Amare; Durant, not Gay—players between which the distinctions are crucial.
So, I propose a strange rally cry: continue bottoming out, Cavaliers! Flip Andy Varejao for assets. Flip Antawn Jamison into Lake Erie. Flip off. Let’s party. Let the young guys run around. Free Skyenga! (Then probably cut Skyenga.) Accumulate “moral victories.” Build camaraderie through misery. Lose entertainingly. Lose spectacularly. Dominate a game and then forfeit with eight seconds left. Go stupidly into that good night. Binge drink on badness.
Then, after the smell of burnt hair dissipates, sober up. Assemble a table of People Who Know What They’re Doing. Pore over scouting reports. Hold workouts. Scrutinize. (It’s very important that you scrutinize.) Watch game tape. Interview dudes. Sweat over ping pong balls. Watch more game tape. Scrutinize again. Consult college coaches. Consult scouts. Take other smart people out to dinner and consult them. Assemble your war room. Field trade offers. Don’t waver. Then make the pick. Make sure you believe in it.
It sounds exhausting. I’m sorry it sounds so exhausting. But you’re building a skyscraper. Those things take time and steel. The Cavaliers have plenty of one.
———————
*The way that I did this, in my head, was by looking at the Kobe-led Lakers of 2008-09, and asking the question: “If you replaced Kobe with [Player X], would that Laker team still make it to the Finals?” So, for example, I think if you replaced 2008-09 Kobe with present-day Derrick Rose, that Laker team still makes the Finals. If you replace 2008-09 Kobe with present-day Russell Westbrook? I think LA falls a little bit short. For someone like Dwight Howard, who isn’t a guard, I plugged Howard into the center slot, took Andrew Bynum off the team, and replaced Kobe’s shooting guard spot with a 2008-09 Bynum-level shooting guard (so, like, Kevin Martin or whomever). It’s a little convoluted and obviously subjective, but I think it works pretty well.
My sentiments exactly. When I look at the list of teams with worse records than us, my heart sinks. As presently constructed, with Andy running wild and Kyrie ever-improving, I think we’re better. We need to draft in the top 7. By any means necessary.
I very much agree with this. Forward to CG.
Agreed with everything but trading Varejao for assets, at this point. If anything this season has shown that the Cavs aren’t as far away as we thought they might be from being relevent again. Andy is never going to be more than the 3rd or 4th best player on a championship team so keep him around through next season and see where we’re at. I’m not sure what the return would be for Jamison but I’d trade him asap for whatever they can get. No sense in letting his contract expire unless they intend to sign Sessions to a long term deal.
I think there are three main factors contributing to the Cavs relative success so far:
1) Having KI and TT on the team, which has added talent and energized guys like Jamison to play decently.
2) An easy schedule. Look at the Cavs’ results and name one good win, I dare you. They haven’t beaten a team over .500 yet this year and have the second easiest SOS at this point in the season. The next month will be tough and I expect the losses to pile up against teams like Miami (3x), Chicago, Dallas, Boston (2x), Orlando, the Clippers, and 76ers.
3) And probably most importantly, we haven’t had any injuries. The only player to miss any time due to injury this year has been Parker against GSW. Unfortunately with this crammed schedule, the injury bug will eventually bite this team and hurt their record.
I still expect them to draft from 7-9 with the possibility of trading up.
Great Post.
Flip Jamison into Lake Erie Rofl
Liked the writing, and you make a compelling argument. A few thoughts:
Wow, did you just make Dan Gilbert’s and every other whiny owners point. Reading this is DEPRESSING. It’s like the Cavs have 3 chances, and all of them are less likely than Frodo destroying the ring. So the first chance is to draft a future top-50 all-time HoF-er of which about 1 comes out every 1.5 years. But that’s not enough. Then, you need to suck ass despite having this sort of talent infusion so that you get an all-star the very next year. Then you need to manage your money, have player’s talents peak at the right time, and still nab some talent and veteran leadership to fit. So basically, we need to draft the next David Robinson, watch him get hurt and the franchise tumble, win the lottery, draft the next Tim Duncan, and go from there. Oh and we have to hope that if we accidentally drafted Penny Hardaway instead, that he stays healthy. So that’s our first shot.
Second chance is to be OKC which still hasn’t won anything, is not favored to beat Miami, and will have to part with Russell Westbrook next year at the latest once his rookie contract is up. So we draft future hall of famer Kevin Durant, perennial all-star Russell Westbrook, put some nice veteran pieces around them and then add James Harden for good measure so we can lose to the collusive heat.
Third chance is to be the ’02 Pistons, which I still believe is the most realistic. Solid chemistry, depth, great PG play, stifling defense, and a crafty mid-season trade (Sheed) that puts us over the top. It’s only happened once in 30 years (or maybe more I don’t know) but it almost seems the most likely. i supposed you can argue that the 05-07 Spurs were one superstar, 2 great late draft picks (Ginobili, Parker), and great coaching, defense, chemistry.
You know how never has to draft in the top 5, tank, and then draft in the top 5? The Lakers and Celtics.
How depressing is this seriously? Look at Portland. Oh, your future franchise center is going to just never play for you, your future hall of fame SG is going to retire at 25. That future you thought u had with all-stars at SG, PF, and C? poof.
We had 7 years of the best player in the NBA and couldn’t win. Denver had 8 years of Melo and tons of talent around him and couldn’t win, OKC hasn’t even made it to the conference finals with Kevin Durant, easily the best college player in decades, and NO couldn’t win with Chris Paul and assorted former all-stars. All these teams hitting the lottery – no championships.
I have three basic thoughts on this.
First, I agree that it takes alot of luck for a market like Cleveland to build a champion.
Second, I agree with Alex. I still think the Cavs will end up in the mid-lottery. I know they’ve played 10 road games against 4 home games, but they have been as healthy or healthier than every team in the league, they’ve played relatively poor teams, and the schedule hasn’t been too hyper-aggressive yet. The Cavs have 22 back-to-backs on the schedule this year and have only played 3 of them. Tuesday on the secnod night of a back-to-back, they lost to a bad team at home that was missing one of their best players.
Third, the Cavs have Irving, Thompson and Varejao. They have 14 draft picks (7 first round) in the next four years and $25-ish million in cap space to use over the next two years. If all those assets and that cap space can’t be turned into a perennial 50+ win team, that will be depressing. Assuming this team is a perennial 50 win team, maybe makes a couple of conference championships…I think I can live with that. And maybe they luck into a Pistons type championship one year.
Any chance we can have a shot at landing Brook Lopez? Looks like the Nets are not going to extend him, and we have a piece in Jamison with a large expiring contract that could be off their books at the end of the year in order to sign Howard if he does not get traded by the deadline. Without Lopez healthy, the Nets have not enough assets to get Howard, or to keep Deron. Meanwhile, the Cavs may care less if Lopez plays any this season, and may prefer not to have him play…
The ping-pong ball concept just generally sucks.
The worst 6 teams shouldn’t be ranked at all.
Even worse in the NFL.
When I read stuff like “Colts can lock in the number 1 spot” – that simply hurts….
Great read…I agree with mostly all of your article. I just don’t want to let go of Andy. If we do end up having the opportunity to draft an up and coming Center, who better to mentor the kid than Andy? His level of effort and energy is unmatched by anyone in the NBA (IMO). His attitude and motor is exactly what you want out of a player at any position. Imagine Tristan Thompson with Andy’s ability to cut to the hoop at the right moment or how well he plays the pick n roll with KI? Or Andy’s ability to demolish the opposing guard’s nose with a single blow?
Trade Jamison (Sir Chuck-A-Lot) for anything you can get. (maybe left over snuggies from past promotions?)
As Kevin stated, we already have an abundance of future draft picks. It’s time to pick and choose who we want to help nurture this young squad. I think Andy’s presence is more valuable than anything we could get in a trade for him.
I was literally thinking this moments before I read this article. I decided to look at some mock drafts, just to get an idea of where people have this draft class falling (specifically Sully!!!) and it sort of hit me – we’re drafting waaaayyyy too late. Obviously I knew we were doing well in relation to the rest of the league, but this is absurd. Someone break Andy’s hand or trip Kyrie and sprain his ankle or something.
But seriously, I think Alex nailed it – it’s a little too early to start sounding the alarm. The season is VERY young, and we’ve played the bottom of the barrel. As long as we make the lottery at all, even at a low chance to win, I think we’re in fine shape.
Another quick note – lets not pretend every top 5 pick is a home run. You touched on it with Kyrie, but it should be stressed WAY more for the future draft, considering we have NO sample size of what these guys can do in the NBA. A top 5 pick, in reality, means squat. Looking at that Stuckey draft from 2007, we saw Durant go 2 overall, and the likes of Jeff Green, Yi, and Brandon Wright get drafted. The point is, ya we need a superstar, but we have no idea if we’re going to get it, so intentionally tanking is a VERY high risk, low reward strategy. I’m with Kevin in saying that, with the assets we have now, if we can’t get a decent team together, it’ll be a serious disappointment.
Also, just to tack this on about the 2007 draft, as we all know, Oden went #1, furthering my point that nothing is a given, and it’s extremely risky to assume we’re going to get a home run with whatever high pick we could land.
Just enjoy the ride and stop worrying. At least we’re (somewhat) relevant again.
I have been worried about the same thing. However, I offer a few counterpoints:
1) Its waaay to early to see how good/bad this team is. Even though when I look at teams with worse records and I think we’re definitely better than them its too early to tell.
2) The lottery is literally a crapshoot. We got the #1 pick last year off a pick that was projected to be at #7 or #8 I believe. Therefore, intentionally sucking to get a higher pick is folly–especially when they may or may not turn out.
3) To that end we want to develop a winning culture/attitude in our younger guys especially with the aftermath of DecisionGate/JerseyBurning. In short, Cleveland fans need something to be excited about after last year’s abysmal team.
But, I do wish we could trade Jamison (if thats even possible) and Sessions (love him but not sure if he + KI can work at the same time) and give more minutes to TT.
Haha DK and I are apparently on the same page.
Great essay — and this is what the blog, besides being a solid site to read game summaries, should be at its best with. Thanks for a good read.
Perfect read. I can’t convince my friend that 8th seed would be awful, I’ll have to send him this article.
And Mallory, “VERY high risk, low reward strategy.” what is the high risk? We won’t be the 8th seed and get embarressed by Miami or Chicago? Thats not risking anything if you ask me, and every spot you fall lower increases your odds significantly of drafting higher. Yes, we lucked out like crazy last year, but it would be folly to assume the 2% chance is going to beat the 25% on a regular basis.
The problem is you can’t instill a culture of losing and expect the players to snap out of it in a second. We need to try to win, and fail. This means KEEPING jamison and telling him he needs to take more and more unorthodox shots as the season progresses, and hope andy misses significant time with a non-career altering injury.
And to Mr. Downer Tom Pestak, this is sports, its not that depressing. It takes every team a lot of luck to win a championship, why should we be any different? Wah Wah wah we aren’t boston or L.A. If you can’t deal with it switch allegiances, if it was easy it wouldn’t be fun.
Also by the way tom and you to Colin, MELO is one of the most overrated players in the NBA. No defense, and he kills his teammates efficiency with his black hole melo time offense. Its a wonder his team ever made the Conference championship game. Denver isn’t missing him a bit ever since that trade, I’ll tell you that.
Lastly Tom, give durant and company some time, they are still young and went to the conference champ last year.
Matt –
While I agree that getting into the playoffs as an 8 seed isn’t worth it (and I’m 100% on board with you about that, make no mistake) I think you’re missing what I meant by what I wrote before. We can’t intentionally tank. You (and DK) touched on it when you said losing culture isn’t easy to kick – I would go farther and say that losing culture is the hardest thing to shed as an NBA team. Look at teams like the Warriors, the Clippers, etc. etc. These teams have perennially been terrible, drafted high often, and STILL remain bad (obviously the Clippers are in a good place now, but not because of how they drafted). The point is sucking to win later is a terrible strategy. I’d much rather have a team of talented young guys who want to win, and do win, then a team of talented young guys who make a lot of mistakes, get into bad habits, and don’t grow properly, but with the caveat of again drafting high. Yes, the Thunder got extremely lucky in how they drafted, and had a smart GM to boot, but that’s the rare exception, not the rule.
I think what we can say with at least some certainty after these few games is that Kyrie (and TT to some degree) is a natural born winner. You can’t teach that and you certainly don’t want to discourage it. If we lose some close fought games, then awesome, we’ll at least know that his desire to win and compete is still intact, and we’ll end up with a good pick to boot. What we don’t want to do is slowly sink and flounder, and encourage the kind of mindset that you propose – making decisions based on the ability to MAYBE be good in the future. That kind of mindset, i.e. Letting Jamison shoot and miss, hoping Andy misses time, etc. etc. could potentially be really harmful.
The point is, everyone needs to stop acting like we should tamper with what we have, which is clearly a good thing. Look at a player like John Wall – last year he was considered a savoir, and yes, he very well may turn out to be one, but that team can’t win, and I would say their roster is even more talented than ours. There’s a reason for that – culture and mindset. Lets not lose what we have – it’s worth more than the chance to draft high and MAYBE end up with a star. We’re going to have plenty of picks in the future, and a lot of cap space, it’s not like we don’t have many many options.
I’ll end with this – a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush – what we have now is a lot to build off of – why would you wish against that? If it happens, fine, but I think we need to stay the course as is – it’s worked so far and that’s more than we can say about last year.
“Here’s a (subjective) list of players drafted over the last decade who are capable of being the best player on a championship contender* and their draft position:
LeBron James (2003, 1st overall)
Carmelo Anthony (2003, 3rd overall)
Dwyane Wade (2003, 5th overall)
Dwight Howard (2004, 1st overall)
Deron Williams (2005, 3rd overall)
Chris Paul (2005, 4th overall)
Kevin Durant (2007, 2nd overall)
Derrick Rose (2008, 1st overall)
The fact that none of those players save Wade have won a championship shows how flawed your list is. Manu Ginobili was the 57th pick of NBA in 1999. Tony Parker was the 28th Pick. Paul Pierce 10th pick. Kevin Garnett 5th pick. Dirk Nowitzki 9th Pick. Kobe Bryant 13th pick. Rajon Rondo 21st pick. Look at last year’s Memphis team, which was VERY good: Zach Randolph 19th pick, Marc Gasol 48th pick. All those players were obviously under-valued at the time they were drafted. But the teams that picked them or acquired them put them in a position to win, and developed them into great players with a culture where winning was (sometimes after a lot of trial and error) expected.
I think if you look at some of the guys that are playing well this year like Jon Luer, Marshon Brooks, Markieff Morris, etc. You can get very good players in the teens and twenties in the NBA draft, and you can trade for good players. Heck. David Lee is a 30th pick and Monta Ellis is a 2nd rounder. Not that these players are “championship players,” but they could be very good players on a championship team. If Dallas showed us anything last year, it’s that you have to stay as good as you can be for as long as you can be, and when you make your run, and it looks like things are gelling for you, have the will, determination, talent, and forsight to win. If there’s anything else your list shows, is that tanking to get a few more lottery balls doesn’t get you a championship (just ask Rick Pitino who lost out on Duncan and then drafted Billups and Joe Johnson, and then traded them away).
It’s time to sit back and enjoy what the Cavs have done so far. The team’s current talent level, especially Irving’s, will serve as a great equalizing mechanism as far as the draft is concerned. Players like LeBron, and Durant with Westbrook were not able to take their teams from the early lottery to the playoffs in one year. If the Irving led Cavs make the playoffs it will probably mean that they already have their big time star to lead them forward. If they fall short they will get a better position in the lottery and increase their chances of getting that additional piece they need in the next draft.
The Cavs have given themselves as good of a chance as possible to beat the system by collecting draft picks. By having seven first round and another seven second rounders over the next four years, they have greatly increased their odds. The hard part is getting lucky and getting the best player in a draft at least once, to go along with having those extra opportunities. They have already done that with Irving.
Being patient is hard but it should be made a lot easier knowing that the Cavs got a special talent in Irving and another solid long term asset in TT very early in the rebuild.
As far as panicking and trading Varejao that idea is crazy. The chances of both getting a pick that would be high enough, and then using it to get a player good enough to replace him are way too small. His contract relative to his value would also be hard to replace. Remember that with the new CBA, the Cavs would have to acquire someone off of the NBA junk pile to replace his salary to meet minimum salary requirements next year. I would love to also keep Sessions as a key backup and role player. With his having a player option on his contract for next year they may have to move him. His future with the Cavs is probably the one issue to have some concern about.
HoopsDog,
Thanks for bringing your insight into this. It’s not about where you draft good players as much as that you at some point do draft them. Good scouting( see Tristan Thompson pick) and extra opportunities(seven first rounders in the next four years) are also big factors in being able to do so.
The T-Wolves have nine lottery picks on their current roster, seven of which were between sixth and second picks, with three being second overall picks.
What HoopsDogg said.
@matt – “if it was easy it wouldn’t be fun?” Seriously what? I can’t comprehend that going to need you to either elaborate, tell me that was an autocorrect typo, or tell me you meant playing MegaMan3 not watching Cleveland Sports.
I think this debate essentially comes down to whether we want to trade Varejao. Most of us agree trading Jamison and/or Sessions makes sense.
The decision to trade AV, then, comes down to evaluating the following question:
Is a team built around KI, TT, no Vaerjao, (roughly) the 8th pick in next year’s draft, and (roughly) a mid-first rounder in some future draft (from trading AV) more likely to win a championship than a team built around KI, TT, Varejao and (roughly) the 12th pick this year?
I fail to see how anyone can have such a definitive opinion on such a complex question. The answer obviously depends greatly on your beliefs about KI, TT, and AV’s potential, as well the potential of someone picked 12th versus 8th. Its the classic “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.”
I am surprised by how so many smart Cavs fans condescendingly assert that this decision is simple or obvious. It is similar to the knee jerk reaction to the drafting of TT.
PS: HoopsDogg makes a great point.
Bryan,
I think you’re completely, 100% right about the situation – it is complex, and there is no definitive answer. I think that’s why the reactions on here about standing pat are so charged – right now we know what we have, where as if we were to trade Andy, who knows what could happen. Yes, both your hypotheticals yield some serious uncertainty, but we do know, at least to some degree, what we currently have. That’s more than we can say if we trade Andy for a mysterious pick, and wait as we potentially tank and pray on winning the lottery.
The fact is, no one can predict how anything can turn out. What we (and the Cav’s organization) can do is weigh the pluses and minus, and see what results in the highest odds of success. Like you said, it’s a classic bird in the hand, meaning what we have now is certainly worth more than we could potentially have.
When I say worth more, by the way, I mean worth more by way of odds and knowledge. There is the potential I’m 100% wrong and whoever is drafted at #8 or 7 or whatever turns out to be the best player ever, but that’s much less likely than them turning out to be mediocre, and of equal value to someone you could get a few picks later.
This whole debate reminds me of Moneyball – basically you have to place value on a certain situation, and examine it as such. Is Andy’s talent equal to the value of whatever the worst possibility is weighted and averaged with the best possibility? I’m no risk manager/statistician, but I have a feeling Andy is probably a better asset, which is why the Cavs have been so reluctant to part ways with him.
The problem with arguing that each championship team / contender must have a superstar, is that superstars are defined by bringing their team to the championship. So – if you bring your team to the championship, you are inevitably one of the top 5 players… (like Jason kidd or Chauncey Billups for example), whereas if you lose in the first round, you’re dismissed as not good enough (Tracy McGrady, for example). SO – this is completely self-fulfilling.
There are a lot of possibilities as the what could happen if the Cavs traded Anderson Varejao. My biggest concern is that it would be hard to replace his skillset, especially when you consider his reasonable contract. His contract is favorable both dollar-wise and length-wise. He’s not just a bird in hand. He’s a bird in hand with a hard to replace skillset at a reasonable price.
@Tom, I did in fact mean if it was easy it wouldn’t be fun. Any competition that is not hard loses a lot of its interest. If the cavs had an easy season where they won every game by 20 points it would be fun, but nba championships were easy things in general to win no one would care. If the cavs won every game by 20 points for 10 years I would probably stop paying attention entirely. You want the league to be competitive, you want the championship to be worth fighting for, and you want to see your team claw and scrape for their goal. (or at least I do) If you want that, then you have to accept that it is going to be a hard thing to do, and it is not guaranteed, and you are going to need some luck.
But ya, Hoopsdogg does have a good perspective. Obviously I don’t want the cavs to intentionally tank, but if we can get a good draft pick via a trade that hurts us this year, we should do it. And meanwhile I will hope personally we lose a lot of closely contested games and that andy and boobie miss significant time with non-major injuries, and dream of what we could build if we get kidd-gilchrist, drummond, or barnes if they pan out.
I also notice the trend that elite point guards are raved about all season long, then come finals time none are left. Chauncey billups is the only player listed as the best on his finals team that plays pg, and he is easily the worst player on that list, and was at the time very arguably not the best player on the most balanced team on that list. Noticing this make me see a very real limit in kyries ability to lead us to the promised land without a ton of help. Playoffs are about Post Defense, and once that intensity picks up little guys have a harder time of it. Ball movement is a good thing too, and having overly dominant ball handlers seems to spell doom as well. Fisher totes the rock for kobe a little at least, and kobe was always compelled to feed the big men whenever he actually won in the playoffs, Kidd and rondo were pass first pg’s and lost, Dirk doesn’t bring it down the court. The only player on the list who thoroughly dominated the ball every time on offense the way Derrick Rose, Deron William, and Chris Paul and those do-everything pgs was lebron in 07, and he’s pretty much the most naturally gifted athlete on the planet and got swept.
Kyrie will need players around him who he’ll feel the need to feed consistently. Unless you all are satisfied with amazing regular seasons and no championship.
Oops, I forgot Kidd’s on the list too (rondo too, but i won’t count that as Garnett was easily the better player during their playoff run), but he’s also one of the worse players on the list as well. And none of those guys were stopping points of the offense the way a rose, melo, paul, or iverson like are. For Kyrie to not fall into the trap of thinking he has to carry the offense every time down he’ll need players around him that humble him on offense. If he ends up like Rose or Paul in that way it won’t be good.
I’d way rather be having this conversation than complaining about how much the Cavs are paying Larry Hughes to stink it up and take a bunch of shots in the hopes of finding the longed-for #2 scoring option to LeBron. I hope that Bryon Scott finds the right combination in the Cavs locker room and on the court to really make this work as a team effort. Keep Boobie around and if Varajao can stick through tough couple of years, why not keep him around? He’s a great player and Jamison (the final ghost of Larry Hughes syndrome, as far as I’m concerned) will be gone (or flipped, get him to the Celtics quick!!!).
Little late to this party but is there really a chance that anyone here sees of the Cavs making the playoffs? I cannot believe its possible with this lineup. Lottery is a lock.
In no universe is Carmelo a championship player. Sweet Jesus…