“Varejao, second on the team in PER (18.7), the only member of the Cavaliers with at least a 1.0 win share, and currently 29 years of age, has long been a target of several NBA franchises due to his relatively friendly contract and unrelenting energy when on the court. The issue with a potential trade of Varejao, aside from the public relations impact of a transaction involving a fan favorite, would be the considerably thin frontcourt – Ryan Hollins, Semih Erden and Samardo Samuels - that would be forced into a considerably larger role.” [Scott Sargent on the possibility of a Varejao trade this season]
“Scott, who uses 10-game intervals to evaluate progress and ponder rotation tweaks, inferred that Casspi’s position is safe for now. He also said it’s fair to assume that Samuels could lose minutes to Semih Erden, who returned to the lineup Sunday after missing the first seven games and all the preseason with a broken thumb.” [Tom Reed]
“Joe Prunty is Scott’s offensive coordinator, and Jamahl Mosley handles the defense. What about lead assistant Paul Pressey? ‘Paul is my Mr. Everything,’ Scott said. ‘He does a little bit of everything for me. (Newcomer) Nate (Tibbetts) is obviously learning from all those guys. We’ve got a great staff. Guys work their butts off. Obviously, this summer we had a lot of work to do, especially on the defensive end, so me and Jamahl talked about what we needed to do and areas we needed to get better.’” [Bob Finnan]
I know it isn’t massively important (and that this isn’t a Cavs the Blog article), but why anyone still uses PER when we know this…
“Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.”
… is beyond me. We seem to be reaching a stage where basketball analysis includes stats, but the one all the writers have picked up on is the worst one. Facepalm. I mean seriously: PER has Jamison as an above average player, and Sessions nearly as valuable as Varejao. Which anyone with eyes and an internet connection knows to be utter crap.
The other big problem with PER: It underates fouls per minute. So it over rates big guys like Greg Oden with decent field goal percentages who get a lot boards and blocks, but can’t stay in the game because they’re always in foul trouble.
I get Isaac’s point, but all these stats have their uses. I mean if you have a guy with a high PER, but a bad efficiency rating or true shooting percentage, you know he’s a chucker. Still it lets you figure out who’s putting up numbers, and who’s just floating out there.
There’s lots of new advanced stats, like adjusted plus minus, wins shares, 3 and 5 man lineup efficiency stats, and this does not even get into the dark arts of advanced defensive statistics like defensive composite score. They all have their uses.
Anyway, the point of the stats is to make you realize that Jamison and Sessions ARE above average players in certain areas, and to get you past your personal biases. What most of these stats need (especially PER) is a standard deviation chart to go along with them. If you track PER on per game basis, standard deviation will help you see who is consistently good, and who knows how to pick up stats in bunches, or beat up on bad opponents (I use it all the time in Fantasy Football). Ramon and Jamison probably have a very high standard deviation, meaning they’re very inconsistent, whereas Andy’s is probably low. Players with high standard deviations are probably perceived as bad more often because the bad impression they leave on you in the games where they’re lousy.
It’s halftime and I haven’t been able to watch the game. Jamison is 3-12, 0-2 at the stripe, and at -8. No more box scores for me while he’s on the team.