Every two weeks I’ll give a little recap of what our youngsters are up to, how they looked, and what to expect. With the help of our resident stat guru, Mr. Kevin Hetrick, I’ll dive into their stats a bit and see if we can get the whole picture.
How exciting are these young guys? I know it’s very early, that we’ve had a small sample size, and that things could turn very quickly, but is anyone unhappy with our picks right now? Yes, we haven’t seen Krolik’s favorite, Valanciunas, play yet, and I’m still not certain Thompson is a full time starter (he’s averaging 18.4 minutes a game and has maxed out at 25 minutes) but so far I like what I’ve seen.
Kyrie has essentially met or surpassed all my expectations in his first 8 games. There have been bumps, but that’s to be expected for a rookie, particularly one who played only 11 games in college. In the last five games (the first five of January) Kyrie has averaged .500 on threes (which includes last night’s 0-3) and .476 on the rest – impressive considering he wasn’t particularly heralded for his shooting abilities as much as his vision and smarts. Additionally his defense – lateral movement, switching off the P&R, ability to keep his man in front of him – is extremely impressive for someone so young, and he’s even averaged a block a game. He’s also been pretty good with the ball in his hands, averaging 5.1 assists per game (an average that came down due to his low assist total last night) with only 3 turnovers a game, which isn’t too shabby for a guy still learning the pace of the NBA game.
With Kyrie, I only have a few minor reservations. Irving has a tendency to, if he starts slow, go completely cold from the field. When he’s good, he’s great, but, as we saw in those two games against Toronto, he’s capable of complete meltdowns. Kyrie has also had some slight problems with ill-advised passes to inside men. Once or twice a game it’s not unusual to see Kyrie, while pushing the pace down the floor, dish the ball down low despite two or three of the opposing team’s defenders standing in the way, well aware of what’s coming. But, as I’ve always said, this is a very young, inexperienced player we’re talking about. He’ll only get better, smarter, and more consistent, and I think the final results will be very very good.
Some interesting data that Kevin sent to me:
“After last night’s game, Irving’s usage is 28.1 (according to Hollinger’s method)…higher than any rookie in the last 10 years. That’s 3rd of all PGs in the NBA so far this year and 8th of ALL players. I think that’s pretty fascinating.
Obviously using this many possessions could be good or bad. Irving’s been pretty good though, ranking 26th of 64 PG’s in true shooting percentage and only 39th of 64 in percentage of possessions that end in a turnover. He’s scoring relatively efficiently and taking care of the ball well enough. He could stand to improve on the turnovers, but for a 19 year old rookie, who is a starter (playing other teams’ starters) and basically has free reign to be as aggressive as he wants, the fact that he’s taking care of the ball better than 25 NBA point guards seems pretty good actually.”
That basically says it all. I think the future is very, very bright for Mr. Irving
Tristan Thompson, as many of you probably already realize, is my new favorite Cav. I absolutely love his game; he plays with a ton of energy and power, and while he’s very raw, has all the tools to, if well coached, become a special player. Unlike Kyrie, Thompson isn’t really a jack of all trades, but what he does do he does very very well. As an interior defender, Tigger has the ability to guard most power forwards, and, if and when he adds some weight, could probably play a very similar style of defense to Andy. Basically, despite his height, TT is able to succeed using pure atheleticism and a constant motor that badgers his man into missing their shot or turning over the ball. The kid literally bounces all over the place, throwing his ridiculous wingspan in the air, until something good happens. As you’ll see in Kevin’s stats, he’s a blocking machine! The only red flag I’ve seen so far is his defensive rebounding, which is pretty sub par for a player of his talent level.
On offense, Thompson is equally energizing and impressive. He’s extremely good at throwing the ball down with authority, and makes a lot of good decisions when shooting. Thompson has a decent arsenal of moves when he has the ball in his hand, and I’ve even seen him make some ill-advised but impressively good jump shots. He’s shooting .471 from the field, an average that will certainly go up as his minutes increase and he’s able to get into an offensive rhythm. In addition to his talents with the ball in his hand, Tigger is equally great when the ball is in the air. Tristan is an offensive rebound magnet, averaging 1.5 offensive boards a game in only 18.4 minutes per game. Still, TT has a lot of learning to do developing post moves. But once he does that, I think he could be a force inside on offense.
I really wish Byron would let Tristan play more than the measly minutes he’s giving him now. Why he keeps favoring Antawn over Tigger is beyond me. I wish he’d let the kid play and give him a chance to get into a groove and develop his game.
Kevin, again, provided some excellent info about Tristan to think over:
“Through 01/08, TT is now 8th of 297 players who have played six games
or more, with 3.54 blocks per 40.”
If Scott would let Tristan play, I bet we’d see even more highlight reel moments from the young Canadian.
Thus far, I could not be happier with Cleveland’s 2011 draft. Both Kyrie and Tristan show a ton of promise for the future, and are playing like seasoned vets already. I’m under the firm belief that we’ve only scratched the surface both players talents, and, if that’s the case, the rest of the league is in for a very good, very scary Cavalier future.
My one quibble, as I’ve said before, is that Byron won’t give these two guys a chance to play together. It’s an absolute travesty how little time they’ve spent on the court together. It would be one thing if we were in serious contention for a playoff spot, but we’re not going to win this year, and, even more, Jamison and Ramon haven’t played well enough to warrant taking time from the two rookies. I have a hunch that, once the record begins to dip lower and lower, we’ll start to see them playing together. Once that happens, watch out NBA!
I’ll be back again in two weeks to go into more depth about what our young heroes have been up to. Until then, enjoy!
I cringed when you first started using your cutesy nickname for Tristan Thompson. This time I just stopped reading the remainder of your post as your comments about Thompson seemed to lose more and more credibility as you kept referring to him as a goofy effeminate tiger.
Now I’m a draft expert and a stat guru…time to update my resume. Irving shot 45% on 3′s at Duke, so I hoped that he’d also knock down the NBA three.
All the analysts said that last years draft was full of good role players, but didn’t have a star. After 8 games from Kyrie, there’s at least one player in that draft class who has a ceiling of “star”.
It will be interesting to see TT get more minutes against the other team’s first string. So far, his shot blocking has been what has most suprised / impressed me. He blocked shots in college, but it’s often hard to tell how well that will translate to the NBA.
*Quip? I think you mean quibble. But whatever : ) Nice analysis
Isaac – you’re definitely right. I updated that. Thanks for the heads up.
I quickly wanted to mention something that I neglected to in my post, but it critically important to Thompson’s game. The kid is amazing at getting to the line, but TERRIBLE at free throws. He was bad in college, so this was to be expected, but he’s currently shooting 41.7% which puts him well below his college average of 46.2%. Oof.
TT:
I love Tristan as well, and have been ridiculously surprised by his strength around the rim. That being said, he has already been figured out to a degree. He was getting tons of birds in the first few games. Scouting reports caught on quickly and have clearly informed their players to stay down on Tristan’s upfake around the rim. He is going to have to go up quickly a few times to get that upfake working again.
His weak-side defense has been great at times and not so great at other times. Part of the reason for his occasional poor weak-side and his always poor defensive rebounding is his crazy desire to block every shot. I love this about him, but he will have to learn when he really has no chance of altering the shot. When he understands that, he will know how to play angles more efficiently , and especially, keep his man off the offensive glass. Though, another reason he doesn’t defensively rebound well is that he really doesn’t seal his man with leverage. Unfortunately, this isn’t something that normally improves. There are certainly effort rebounds, and I have no doubt that he will suck up many of those, but all good rebounders understand how to box out from about age 12. It’s as much of a talent as being a good shooter. Yes, one can improve, but one is unlikely to change the ceiling(other than JKidd’s spot up shooting, didn’t see that one coming). It’s ok. We will have to make sure that he plays with an incredibly good defensive rebounder at all times. So far, he hasn’t had that luxury except for the seconds with Andy. In general, for a number 4 pick in a less than strong class, he has been really good and I think he will continue to get better. One must remember that a number 4 pick really isn’t that high. Paul and maybe Bosh and Westbrook, are the only superstars that have come out of the 4th pick in the past 30 years. Usually you are hoping for a really solid second guy on your team, and would be thrilled with an all-star and content with a solid starter. On a very successful team, Tristan might squeak into an all-star game in with a great defensive year. I would be even more in the possible all-star line of thinking if he showed great instincts as a roller off the pick and roll, but he is only average. Certainly no Tyson Chandler. I was rather apathetic about this pick as I wasn’t thrilled with any of the remaining guys on the board that time, but I doubt we will look back and want to put forks in our eyes. Sure if Jonas becomes Sabonis, then maybe, but who knows at this point.
KI
Kyrie has vastly exceeded my expectations. I don’t know whether it was the inherent Clevelander pessimism, or just the repetitive reports denouncing this as a bad draft, but I really should have done more of my own scouting on this guy. He is a flat out stud. He is a real shooter and this is HUGE. People didn’t mention his silky stroke nearly enough during draft time. Because he only played 11 games, his high 3pts percentage didn’t seem convincing, and most of the highlights show him getting to the rim without Derrick Rose or John Wall athleticism, it seemed like Irving was likely to be a rich mans Mike Conley, or a very poor man’s Chris Paul. He is such a better athlete than he was given credit, but really the shooting is what sets him apart and what gives him the opportunity to be a star. It took Paul until his third season to even become an average shooter for a guard. Wall, Rose and Westbrook are all freaks of nature, but none can shoot at all. (Yes Rose has gotten better, but he still takes way too many outside shots and he couldn’t hit a thing when it mattered. He is not a natural shooter.) The fact that Irving is as quick as he is with his great handle, has a legit 6-2 frame and a great shooting touch, he not only can be an all-star, but be one for years after he loses a step. I still don’t think he has SUPERstar talent, but there are really only a few of those guys in the league. I would take him over Wall.
Very importantly, both of these guys have great character. They are bright kids, work hard, but have a good swagger on the court. This is huge. (not the most important thing, but very important.)
Moving forward, we need a third big man who can defensively rebound and can hit the mid-range J, and for the love of god, a wing player who can actually ball. Then we might have something.
Scott is using his rookies the right way. He’s put Kyrie in a good position by surrounding him with seasoned vets (minus Casspi). While its not the most talented supporting cast, there are a lot of things they can teach our young point guard as well as provide a calming effect on him.
Thompson benefits from going up against other bench guys, as he still has a long way to go until he’ll be an effective starter. By not putting both rookies out there the team is avoiding the mental lapses that come from having too many young guys with not enough experience under their belts, which in time could form bad habits.
Little by little Scott is letting them play together. But like against Portland after TT forced a couple bad shots he was rightfully yanked and replaced with Jamison. Hopefully its moves like that from Scott that will get it through to Tristan that he can’t be a blackhole (once he gets the ball in the post have we ever seen him pass it? As of now he wants to throw the ball at the basket as fast as possible any way he can.)
Both our rooks are playing well, actually, with the exception of Casspi I think the entire team is playing well. We regressed some against a very good Blazer team, but overall, the team has outperformed expectations.
Kyrie is living up to what I expected, a little too many turnovers and he hasn’t gotten as many assist as a ‘pure PG’ should. But considering his age and only 11 games last year, I think I’d have to give him a B or B+. Once he makes cleaner passes, and reduces turnovers, he can earn an A, but to date, he’s not there.
TT I’d give a solid C+. I love his energy, how he goes after every shot and plays so agressively on defense. However, he has to rebound better – no excuse for that. Also, he needs to hit at least 60% of his FT’s if he wants to be a real difference maker in this league. I like what we are getting from him, and honestly I think that part of the reason many Cavs fans are so ‘high’ on him is because his relatively modest expectations coming in. He’s proven that he’s worthy of a top 10 pick, I’m still not convinced that JV wouldn’t have been a better choice. I really like what he has shown so far, and I understand why Jamison (who’s just flat out better offensively and has improved defensively from last year) is getting more time. What concerns me is the fact that TT is playing primarily against second string players. If/When he start playing against more starter quality PF’s, I don’t know if his blocking and energy will have the same kinds of effect. Also remember, it’s not like we’ve played many good teams so far, which means the quality of backups he’s been playing against have been even ‘lower’ than the league average. It would be interesting to see what his stat line per 40 minutes looks like against starters versus second team players. I really love his hard work and effort (reminds me of Andy), I just don’t know if it will translate against starting PF’s. I don’t expect a #4 overll picke to necessarily be a superstar, but I do expect them to be a servicable starting quality player. As of now, I’m not ready to say that TT has proven that to me.
Also, about this ‘Tigger’ thing. Mallory explained it the other day, and I totally get why this nick name makes sense. However, I just don’t like it. My ‘concern’ is that some drunk fan will start to yell out Tigger! and another fan could acutally here another word (that starts with an “N’) and that could cause all sorts of problems. Also, Pooh characters are great for women and kids, but I’m not sure a grown professional athlete wants to have that kind of nickname. Again, I totally get and can even agree with why Tigger is fitting, I just don’t like it and think it can lead to problems or unfortunate jokes.
“But like against Portland after TT forced a couple bad shots he was rightfully yanked and replaced with Jamison…” who forced even worse shots! (rimshot please).
But seriously folks, I’ve noticed Kyrie’s rebounding getting better on defense. He’s doing better at sealing his man and jumping after the board, and he’s not been trying to block EVERYTHING. He’ll get there. The big thing he needs to be doing is figuring out a free throw stroke (which is the biggest difference between him and Big V, who shot 88% one season). TT is epically bad right now, like Ben Wallace bad, and part of the pump faking being a problem, is that teams just know they can foul him to limit his effectiveness. He might actually be better shooting jump hooks from the line than free throws. This has to get better, because he might end up like Andreis Biedrens, the man who is afraid to be fouled, and you can’t play TT in the last six minutes at all.
Maybe he should try underhanded. Supposedly there’s a guru who says he can teach anyone to shoot at least 75% that way. Is it this guy? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtN1pguD7Fw
As for Brian’s thoughts on Tristan being a black hole, it may go back to Scott and the guards. I’ve not seen this team run a re-post since Shaq was here. Big men are reluctant to give the ball up if they think they’re not getting it back. Still, Andy and the coaches need to teach all the other bigs how to pass out of the double, because they’re all terrible at it.
As for Kyrie, the more I watch him, the more I think he could be a one of a kind player. His handle is ridiculous, and better than Paul’s was when he came into the league (last player I saw with a handle this good as a rookie: Dwayne Wade). He’s also a very good shooter, and when he gets his legs under him for the midrange shot, I really think he has the ability to be a +50% field goal guard (elite company). His vision seems very good for an eight game rookie, but what strokes me most about him lately: his coordination around the basket. He can finish with both hands on either side. He also seems to be always under control, but have an “extra gear” in the open court that catches people off guard. Given his height, he actually has higher upside than Chris Paul.
Also, he’s never had a chance to really get in elite shape. With a real offseason of NBA caliber training this year, he’ll likely come back more chiseled, which I think will help him in the midrange and around the basket. I still think he might be a little doughy from the 10.2% body fat he had at the combine. He’s listed at 6’2″ and 190. By comparison, Nash is listed at 6’3″ and 178. Also Kyrie looks like he’s still growing. From the way he’s been blocking shots, and just from the look of him, that 6.4 foot wingspan he had at the combine seems conservative.
In short, Kyrie can be as good as he wants to be as a pure point. The bar of “the next Chris Paul” is not too high, and he could, given his size advantage, be a better defender. He’s shown the ability to be a better three point shooter too. I wanted to take Derrick Williams with the #1 pick, but I’m happy with Kyrie, and I think he could prove me wrong. If anything, he’s far and away the most “ready to play” rookie in the 2011 draft. I hope he keeps growing.
“But like against Portland after TT forced a couple bad shots he was rightfully yanked and replaced with Jamison…” who forced even worse shots! (rimshot please).
But seriously folks, I’ve noticed Kyrie’s rebounding getting better on defense. He’s doing better at sealing his man and jumping after the board, and he’s not been trying to block EVERYTHING. He’ll get there. The big thing he needs to be doing is figuring out a free throw stroke (which is the biggest difference between him and Big V, who shot 88% one season). TT is epically bad right now, like Ben Wallace bad, and part of the pump faking being a problem, is that teams just know they can foul him to limit his effectiveness. He might actually be better shooting jump hooks from the line than free throws. This has to get better, because he might end up like Andreis Biedrens, the man who is afraid to be fouled, and you can’t play TT in the last six minutes at all.
Maybe he should try underhanded. Supposedly there’s a guru who says he can teach anyone to shoot at least 75% that way.
As for Brian’s thoughts on Tristan being a black hole, it may go back to Scott and the guards. I’ve not seen this team run a re-post since Shaq was here. Big men are reluctant to give the ball up if they think they’re not getting it back. Still, Andy and the coaches need to teach all the other bigs how to pass out of the double, because they’re all terrible at it.
As for Kyrie, the more I watch him, the more I think he could be a one of a kind player. His handle is ridiculous, and better than Paul’s was when he came into the league (last player I saw with a handle this good as a rookie: Dwayne Wade). He’s also a very good shooter, and when he gets his legs under him for the midrange shot, I really think he has the ability to be a +50% field goal guard (elite company). His vision seems very good for an eight game rookie, but what strokes me most about him lately: his coordination around the basket. He can finish with both hands on either side. He also seems to be always under control, but have an “extra gear” in the open court that catches people off guard. Given his height, he actually has higher upside than Chris Paul.
Also, he’s never had a chance to really get in elite shape. With a real offseason of NBA caliber training this year, he’ll likely come back more chiseled, which I think will help him in the midrange and around the basket. I still think he might be a little doughy from the 10.2% body fat he had at the combine. He’s listed at 6’2″ and 190. By comparison, Nash is listed at 6’3″ and 178. Also Kyrie looks like he’s still growing. From the way he’s been blocking shots, and just from the look of him, that 6.4 foot wingspan he had at the combine seems conservative.
In short, Kyrie can be as good as he wants to be as a pure point. The bar of “the next Chris Paul” is not too high, and he could, given his size advantage, be a better defender. He’s shown the ability to be a better three point shooter too. I wanted to take Derrick Williams with the #1 pick, but I’m happy with Kyrie, and I think he could prove me wrong. If anything, he’s far and away the most “ready to play” rookie in the 2011 draft. I hope he keeps growing.
Please stop calling me Tigger.
^ What he said.
Well I actually like the nickname Tigger and encourage you to continue using it! Haters gonna HATE.