I think Omri Casspi is a fine player. He can run the floor, he can knock down open three-point shots, he’s athletic, and he plays hard. I think he’ll be a solid player in this league for a long time, and now he’s wearing a Cavalier uniform. Oh, and he fills a gaping hole at the small forward position.
To be honest, though, I feel like this trade was more about Hickson than it was about Casspi. Everyone who reads this blog knows that I worship two things: defense and efficiency. I feel teams should be build around those two things.
For all his talent, J.J. Hickson was neither an effective defensive player or an efficient offensive player. The Kings got more upside in this trade. There’s no real getting around that. If Cousins decides to play in the paint instead of launching jumpers next year, Hickson refines his mid-range game and gets easy buckets off of Cousins’ passing instead of launching his own mid-rang jumpers, and Hickson learns to play defense like an NBA 4 should, than Hickson and Jog DMC could be one of the best frontcourts in the league. Casspi doesn’t offer that kind of upside.
However, what I think we’re seeing with the Hickson trade and the Thompson pick is an admission that the original run-and-gun Cavaliers idea didn’t work out. A defensive mentality needs to be put in, and the team used its fourth pick on one of the best defenders in the draft. The offense needs to become more efficient, and the team used the 1st overall pick on a floor general who also happens to be a hyper-efficient scorer.
Hickson showed flashes of greatness throughout his time as a Cavalier, especially after Baron came aboard. Some people probably believe he was talented enough to wait for. However, the management feels differently, and I can’t help but agree with them. I wasn’t willing to spend another year waiting for Hickson to get comfortable with his jumper, learn proper post footwork, or learn how to show and recover on defense. Rebuilding is different from waiting, and building a team around what Hickson could someday become is the definition of waiting.
The Cavs aren’t ready to contend for a playoff spot, but they appear to be done playing the waiting game. They’re ready to build a solid team, build around good defense and efficient offense. It won’t happen overnight, but if the team stays the course on the court and in the front office, it will happen offensively. I’m much more willing to wait for that team to come together than I was willing to wait for J.J. Hickson to put it all together.
I think that is a fair assessment, and I agree; everything the cavs have done since the end of the season has shown a dedication to a real rebuilding era, culminating in an actual NBA contender.
Will Andy most definitely be our starting center this year? And will Antwan be the starter at 4?
How about the locker room effect (affect? anybody know the difference? can’t we just settle on aeffect?)? I mean, reports were that hickson clashed with Byron last year. What do we know about this Casspi fellow? They tell me Sacremento had an . . . “interesting” lockerroom. Let’s assume that’s the case. Doesn’t this move improve the Cavs lockerroom while adding to the issues in Sacremento? Honestly, I really think the Cavs got the better end of the deal. Hickson may have the higher potential, but in order to reach that potential, he’ll essentially have to transform ino a completely different player. How often does that happen? How often does that happen after being the type of headcase that has a half-season long clash with a head coach? Maybe the cavs could have gotten a better deal, but who knows what sort of deals teams will be able to make after the new CBA. I’m certainly OK with the one Chris Grant made yesterday.
Everyone has known Hickson has been available for quite awhile now and this was the best we could get. I mean that in a positive way for Grant. The same advanced stats that probably led us to draft Thompson are the ones that lowered Hickson’s perceived value and forced us to get rid of him. I go to the same church of basketball as John. Defense and efficiency. I hated watching Drew Gooden and I hated watching Hick most of the time.(note: Gooden has been a MUCH better player than Hickson). People can get better at skills and and even learn new things, but I have serious doubts that Hickson will ever have adequate hands or a basketball brain in his head. I don’t care how athletic he is, unless he refuses to take a shot off the bounce and learns how to rotate on D, he will never be an important player on a great team. Considering he come into the league with the Mike Brown defensive system and STILL doesn’t get it, I don’t see it happening.
As for Casspi, I don’t quite understand how his numbers sank so drastically after mid Jan 10. He had a 5 game streak or so over 20 points on very efficient scoring, and then has been worse ever since. Yeah, I guess PR appearences could account for some of that, but it would be nice to see him get closer to the previous numbers.
Having a tall 3 for our team is really helpful. Especially as we will likely play a relatively small backcourt frequently with Baron and Kryrie together or Boobie etc. (hopefully Sessions will no longer be on the team)
I hope that we make a qualifying offer to Oden. I still strongly believe he will have a very strong career. Plug him at Center with Andy, Tristan as the other primary big men, and we have a real defensive frontcourt. If we can, I would really like to get Andy back at the 4 for most of his minutes. He is one of the best defenders on and off ball in the league, so defensively, unless he is going against Howard, it isn’t a huge problem, but his PER for and allowed is much better as a PF. We shall see how this pans out.
I thought Hickson was just turning the corner. The second half of the season he had many 15+ rebound games, albeit with many less than 5 rebound games. He has too much potential to trade away even more so because we will not see Sac’s pick for probably 5-6 years. I feel like the rift between him and byron scott caused Grant to try and rush a deal for JJ before the lockout. I think we could have done better than this. It all seemed rushed.
I think this trade puts a lot of pressure on Kryie Irving and Tristan Thompson. For all his flaws on defense and rebounding, he was the teams only low post threat. Now Kyrie is going to have to create shots for everyone else. Tristan’s offense will need to develop quicker. I’d feel better about this trade if the draft pick wasn’t so heavily protected. Still, I think Chris Grant was put in a tough spot due to the lockout.
@Dustin: affect = verb, effect =noun
In a way, it’s a win-win situation. If the Cavs never get that first round draft pick, they will at least have the consolation that J.J. Hickson wasn’t good enough to make Sacramento any better. And if they do get a first round draft pick, well, then they get a first round draft pick.
check the “ask mary” column this sunday in the plain dealer and you’ll see my question asking whether or not she thinks we might trade for Casspi. I am totally in tune with this team =)
Would have been a slam dunk if not for the protections on the pick, but then again, Sac might not have done the deal w/o them. At least we won’t have to spend the summer wondering why we had so many PFs. I say good job Grant, as long as Hickson doesn’t turn into the next Amare in a few years. But like Krolik wrote, the same advanced stats that made us draft TT probably showed that Hickson’s weaknesses.
I agree that JJ turned a corner after the allstar break with respect to his rebounding and level of effort, but he was not a shot blocker (or even shot alterer) or strong interior presence that i believe tristan thompson will be…. in 3-4 years. Who knows, maybe JJ will figure it out. It took Josh Smith 6 or 7 years in the league to figure out how to use his skills effectively.
Patience, cavs fans.
I think the Cavs gave up on waiting for JJ to reach his potential. Mike Brown ended up benching JJ and Byron Scott did as well. JJ got back in the line-up more because Andy and Jamison were hurt than any other reason. As a C, JJ didn’t have to think as much and never learned how to play the PF position – which is where he needs to be. I assume other teams realize his lack of development as well and that why we couldn’t get much more for him.
On the other hand, I think Casspi may be a little underrated. Not saying he is going to be a star, but looking at his numbers and considering he’s going into his third year in the league, we should expect him to improve to maybe a 15 and 6 guy (plus we’ll see his rols as a bigger part of our offense than his role in Sac with Tyreke and Cousins). Add his defensive impact and I think we really got the better end of this trade. Now we also consider a future first round pick and unless JJ does become the next Amare (I don’t think he’ll be anything near that) we really got a good deal.
Please make the playoffs next season Kings!
Am i the only one not sold on his defense? Last year to help their defense the Kings benched Casspi and their D got much better in the process….Now maybe he didnt fit their defensive system but ppl are talking about him like he is a defensive stopper and he is not that. I mean right now are best defensive players are Varejao, boobie, Joey Graham, SKYenga, and Casspi? that doesnt sound like a good defense to me.
I don’t really get this argument. What is the difference between waiting for Hickson and waiting for Tristan Thompson? J.J. Hickson had value, in his production and in his potential. Yes he also came with drawbacks. Every player does. (Is Tristan Thompson, who makes less than half of his FTs, going to be a model of efficiency? Is he going to rebound better than J.J.?)
I can understand if management decided that he was a “fatally flawed” player. But he doesn’t have to be the centerpiece of our team. He may never have reached his potential and become “qualified” to start for a good team. But he’s more than qualified to make a team better coming off the bench, even assuming no further improvement. And I just don’t see his value represented in our return. (Nor do I see the logic in pairing him with DeMarcus Cousins, though that’s a different discussion.)
Couldn’t we have at least gotten a real first-rounder back for him, even if it was likely to be a later pick? I am becoming really discouraged with this rebuilding process, because I thought the team was going to really scrap for extra picks in this draft and next year’s, and sift through as many prospects as possible to find those hidden gems. Since the Clippers trade, which was admittedly spectacular, they haven’t pursued that approach–not buying into the late first round, throwing away our two second-rounders, and not getting a real draft pick in return for J.J. (himself an important and still draft-age prospect).
The jury is still out of course, but from where I stand it looks like the team has squandered about 5 important opportunities since they took Kyrie Irving #1. It is hard for me to see how, after next year’s draft, the team will have a good core in place. Whereas, if they had drafted Valanciunas, kept J.J. (or traded him for a 1st-rounder), and picked up a couple of guys with potential later in the draft (like Brooks, Butler, Honeycutt, Leuer), I would feel great about our chances next year to round out our core with one of the star SF’s or PF’s in the lottery and whatever else we can get in that draft. That seemed doable, but with this approach I have no idea how it can come together.
I think I want the Cavs to get another lottery chance next year. (Needs: first team quality C, SF, SG)
Casspi is, at best, a sixth man type, imo. But, how to put this, he’s much more cognitively developed than JJ.
So: a piece but not a major one.
2012 could be a top ten D, 25-30 wins and another shot at the balls. Here’s hoping. . .
@Robin – Actually, I don’t recall Hickson ever being very productive in limited minutes off the bench. Whenever his minutes went down, both under Mike Brown and Byron Scott, he seemed to disappear altogether instead of making a contribution proportionate to his time on the floor. And the advanced stats referenced above certainly do not indicate that he is “currently,” without making improvements, a player that would help a contender off the bench. Even in the best stretch of his career, the last 30 games or so of last season, his poor defense and inefficient offense offset the big rebounding numbers. I don’t know much about Omri Casspi, so I’m not saying that was the “right” move – just that I think JJ’s trade value was lower than many fans believed. Really, he probably had more trade value last off-season, because he was still more of a blank slate in terms of NBA performance.
I do wonder whether the Cavs might have done slightly better on the draft pick side of the deal (i.e., less lottery protection) had they gotten it done on draft day before making their 2d pick on draft day and tipping their hand to Sacramento by picking TT. But I think we have to assume that, at the time this deal was made, this was the best offer out there. Hickson’s been on the trading block so long that the Cavs front office certainly knows the market for him by this point.
I really wish there wasn’t as much lottery protection on that draft pick but the more I look into some of the statistics, the better I feel about the trade.
Taking a look at Hollinger’s PER (where 15 is considered the league average), Hickson received a rating of 15.67 and Casspi an 11.76. One thing to remember, though, is that this does not really take into account of a player’s defensive abilities, which would imply that Hickson’s rating is too high and Casspi’s is slightly low. As many people here and on other sites have said, Casspi’s PR obligations hurt his performance, though it is difficult for me to tell exactly how much. However, it is safe to say he had poor year and is expected to improve next year. The best I could find was Hollinger’s projected 2010-2011 PER, which was 13.79 and may compensate for his issue. So just going by PERs, we traded a barely above average player for a barely below average one + a 1st round pick.
Also, I’ve tried to crudely account for the “Baron Factor”, aka the affect a pure PG can have on other players. Sacramento didn’t have a pure PG last season so I will compare Casspi’s whole season to Hickson’s pre All-Star stats. Casspi’s shooting numbers (2pt%, 3pt%, FT%) were 44.5-37-67. Hickson’s were 44.5-0-64. As you can tell, Casspi and Hickson shot the same from inside the arc and had similar FT numbers. Although 44.5% isn’t good by any standards, it definitely makes Hickson look worse since he doesn’t have 3 PT range. Any good PF shoots at least 50% from 2. Per 48 minutes, Hickson averaged four more shots pre All-Star break but only five more points. This also supports the argument of Hickson getting his numbers by being a volume shooter.
Rebounding is the big loss in this trade, as Hickson averaged 5 more per 48 minutes. However, if Tristan Thompson can pick up the slack on that end, there isn’t much we are losing. Add in the conditional first round pick and, statistically speaking, it looks like we ended up on the right end of this trade.
And on a completely different note, I believe Byron prefers to teach offense to a good defender (TT) than defense to a good scorer (JJ). Plus, now we have 14 picks (7 first and 7 second) over the next 4 years.
@ Dr P.- I put the likelihood of 25-30 wins being well above 500 ball next year at at least 50%.
Hickson definitely showed flashes last year. Ultimately, I think the Cavs will regret this trade. Casspi seems like a shorter Vladomir Radmonovich. But like I said, I really feel bad for Hickson. He finally started to get it towards the end of last year. (Anyone remember his last game against Chris Bosh?) He has ability, he just needs focus, hands, and consistency. But his numbers from last year are really skewed because he was horrible the first half of the season. Hickson completely has the ability to be a starting PF in the NBA who can average 18 and 11I think if you put him on the Bulls last year, they beat Miami. He’d be a good player on the Knicks or Suns. Casspi is not better than a 7th man on a good team (ala Radmonovich).
I agree with the “7th man on a good team” claim, but didn’t everyone say Hickson would probably end up as a 6th man or at best a 4th man on a good team.
“Although those problems were eventually worked out, it was clear Hickson wanted to cash in big on his next contract. Sources close to the process confirmed that part of the reason for the initial falling-out between Hickson and Scott was Hickson’s infatuation with shooting long jumpers, believing a consistent 16-foot jump shot was the missing piece to a maximum contract (or close to it). Scott wanted him to spend more time in the paint collecting rebounds.
Hickson told the Beacon Journal in March he believed he was the best power forward in the league, so it’s a fair leap to assume he wanted to be paid as such next summer.”
Were we really going to give Hickson $12+ million per year to be the 4th or 5th best player? At least now we have a role player who will be paid like a role player and another 1st rounder. If that source is correct, I definitely believe we won in this trade. Grant would never have thrown away that much money. Again, I think they could have managed to get a better pick but the last thing we need is a “me first” player hassling Kyrie to pass him the ball more.
There are a lot of different ways of looking at this statistically, but the truth is that Casspi was a more efficient offensive player than Hickson last year. His effective field goal percentage was 49.6% to Hickson’s 45.8%. For every 100 possessions, Casspi scored 106 points, Hickson only 98. Casspi had an offensive win share rating of positive 1.1. Hickson’s OWS was a negative 0.2. Plus, Hickson’s big statistical run at the end of the season came against a bunch of weak defensive teams like the Knicks, Sixers, Raptors, Warriors, etc…while Jamison was sitting out and the Cavs had no one else to score for them.
I don’t know what all went on behind the scenes for the Kings last year that resulted in Casspi’s demotion, but he played hard and produced when given minutes. He will be in a much better position not having to play with the ball-hogging Kings this year.
Will there be a post at some point about the Cavs’ projected starting lineups? With all the drafting and personnel changes I know my head is spinning a bit trying to figure out what the various rotations will be, and I would love a “big picture” post to put it all together. Do the Cavs, for instance, appear to have a decent (and even possibly cohesive) second unit? What role is Andy going to play next year? Is it absolutely a given that Antwan J. is going to be traded? Any noise about Ramon/Baron starting issues at point? Anyway, the point being that it would be great to read more about how these various pieces/players might interact to beat up on teams like Detroit (hopefully we can still take some satisfaction on that front next year courtesy Dan Gilbert) and make an effort to be competitive against somewhat faltering but still formidable teams like Orlando.
Forget about LeBron, I’m ready for the “post-J.J., post-Jamario, post-Mo, post-fragmented and in the cellar era” Cavs.
Excuse my error — I think Kyrie-Baron is the starting guard lineup for next year, with Kryrie at point and Ramon and Boobie as backups, yes?
Our best post players: Jamison, Samuels, and Davis. Scary stuff. Still, it’s not really a post-up league any more.
Antawn Jamison does not play defense. Fact. Baron Davis is not a viable long term option for this team. Fact.
That being said, is anyone else really happy that we have these two veterans around who can fill it up on a given night. Honestly I have spoken to so many who think Cleveland had a terrible season because Lebron left. I am quick to point out we lost a 7’3″, a 7’1″, a former starting 2 guard, and had injuries to our next best two players as well. Nobody knows what we’re capable of but I am hopeful. We have our best defender and anchor back, we have our veteran scorer (volume shooter though he may be), back. We have an incredible young point guard to build around. This team will lok entirely different, sometime in 2012
I posted this comment on another website and I thought it fit here as well.
While I understand if people don’t like this trade, I do think the Chris Grant does have a clear vision for the kind of players he wants. Simply put, he’s looking for high intensity, high character players with good motors who can run the floor and are efficient looking at advanced stats. Remember that John Hollinger had Thompson rated as the 3rd best prospect in the draft. Also, the Kings were statistically a better team when Casspi was on the floor, suprisingly this is not true about the Cavs and JJ Hickson. Regarding the shooting guard position, I think that the most likely long term option for the Cavs is to fill this through the 2012 draft as they are likely a lottery team and this draft is supposed to be heavy in wing players. There is one player who comes to mind who definitely fits into the Cavs focal points of character, athleticism, and effort, and that’s Demar Derozan of the Toronto Raptors. It would take a lot to get Derozan (possibly Anderson Varejao) due to his age (22), contract (a little over 2 million in each of the next two years), and production (17ppg). That being said, he is a high intensity player who can finish at the rim and has a great mid-range game. Derozan could be looked at as more of a scoring guard than a shooting guard as he is not a good three point shooter (just over 13% for his career), but he takes very few three pointers and his strengths and weaknesses offensively would be complemented by Casspi, who is an excellent shooter with a poor mid-range game. He also has some work to do defensively, but this is due more to mental errors than lack of effort.