The draft is over, so this will be my last posting to Cavs:the Blog for a while. Writing these entries does take a lot of time. Lots of credit to John Krolik, for maintaining such a high quality blog for the last several years.
My “reaction” to the draft was a look at draft day from a “glass half empty” perspective. This will contrast that; reflecting on things that went well, as I want to end on a positive note. The negative reaction was based on spending a lot of time, as the Cavs: the Blog Draft Expert, thinking about the draft and having formed opinions on what the Cavs could do. I strongly preferred the Cavs to draft Jonas Valanciunas with #4. I preferred the Cavs do something like trade the #32 and #54 to the Spurs for #29, and take Jimmy Butler. Or at #32, draft Jon Leuer and keep him. Basically something to end up with a player from the 32 pick. At #54, I preferred a lot of players over Milan Macvan. I was unsatisfied with three of the Cavs four picks and dwelled on that. I still would have preferred different selections (and am confused about all the PF’s), but ultimately I’m just a fan with a computer. The Cavs have ways to quantify player contributions that I can’t begin to understand, and they like Tristan Thompson. Here are the positives I see in the drafted players:
Kyrie Irving – It’s folly to forget the Cavs’ good fortune of acquiring the #1 pick in the draft. The Cavs took on an extra $12 million in salary commitments to acquire a likely late lottery pick in a weak draft. Obviously this pick became #1 and has allowed the Cavs to begin laying a great groundwork for the future. Kyrie Irving is an excellent young point guard. The low end of his potential is considered as an above average NBA starter and the high end is as an All-Star. He’s everything a point guard should be; an efficient scorer, good shooter, quality distributor, hard worker, and intense defender. At 19; he is mature and confident, and appears to have a great NBA career ahead of him. On Thursday, the Cavs re-building process took a big step forward in acquiring Kyrie Irving.
Tristan Thompson – Going into Thursday, the Cavs had one player under 25 that was potentially a part of the long range plan (my opinion, see draft reaction). With Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson, that number has tripled. Thompson still needs to develop his offensive skills, but he undoubtedly brings a lot to the table on defense. He has good size and strength for a 20 year old and was the most agile big man at the draft combine. Thompson should be able to defend power forwards in the post, on the perimeter, and even cover some small forwards. Per 40 minutes, he averaged 3.1 blocks and 1.2 steals in his freshman year. He had very effective defensive games against two other lottery power forwards. In a narrow NCAA tournament loss, he held Derrick Williams to 17 points on 42% true shooting, and in a mid-season victory over Kansas, he had five blocks while the Morris twins struggled to the tune of 26 total points on 42% true shooting. As John noted in his post draft summary, the Cavs were very lacking in defense last year; and Irving and Thompson will both step in and begin restoring the Cavs commitment to defense. Finally regarding Thompson; I would be remiss to not mention that he rated as the third best prospect in John Hollinger’s 2011 draft rater. Hollinger’s draft rater is not perfect, but it historically has been good at picking top performing big men.
So there are definitely positives from draft day that I didn’t discuss in my “reaction”piece. Similar to the reaction though, I still am look forward to an interesting trade, a 2011 – 2012 NBA season, and the start of the Irving / Thompson era in Cleveland (complete with a championship where Thompson shuts down Durant).
Tags: Draft Profiles
TT actually rated A’s the top prospect in Hollingers rater. He was third on Hollingers personal board though. Overall I agree with this article MUCH more than the first one. I too wanted Johan at four, however I trust the Cavs and Hollinger much more than myself. It will def be interesting to see what they do with the rest of the roster now that our most talented players all play PG or PF.
I really don’t think JJ is part of the long term plan. I fully expect him to be traded, or simply let go to the free agent market when the time comes.
Kevin,
Thanks for this.
I know, as fans, we tend to expect the world from our teams and with the advent of the Celtics and Heat putting contenders together in a few short months, it’s easy to get ahead of ourselves get frustrated with the piecemeal approach that seems to be the best plan for long-term success of mid-market teams.
I know even less about draft prospects than you, and admittedly was anticipating with the rest of the basketball world Valanciunas with the 4th pick. As much as it may be undesirable, this draft signals that the “pieces” we assume we have in JJ, Samuels, etc. are sub par and not viewed by management as real contributors on contending teams. I applaud the decision from that aspect of not steadfastly sticking by guys we don’t truly believe in. I’m happy that Grant has the cajones to (more or less) admit that the current PF on the team was not going to get it done, so we didn’t hesitate upgrading (in their opinion) even though we could have gone for fit.
As a fan prior to the draft, my dream scenario was a trade back to get Valanciunas and then a wing scorer in the mid teens (ideally brooks), but it’s also reassuring to know we didn’t go all in on players we didn’t truly believe in. We are going to be bad next year. I’m excited to see Kyrie and TT develop with some of the other pieces (Varejao, Semih, who knows, maybe this time JJ gets the message and goes crazy, but I’m glad we aren’t relying on it anymore), but I look forward to a top pick next year as well. The wing scorer that everyone wants was simply not around in this draft. I know, I know there were guys with that potential, but I’m more comfortable passing on a derrick williams and in favor of laying a base down with a PG who can gain experience in the princeton offense without undue pressure and some new pieces to recommit the team to defense.
Of course, the real cynic in me is rooting for a lockout! No embarrassing losing streaks, a guaranteed top 5 pick, and a year off from that team in South Beach.
I too am coming to terms with the TT pick. Does anyone know what the chances are of us making a trade before the lockout??
It’s gonna be a realllyyy long summer if I’m stuck wondering what we are going to do with 6 PFs and 4 PGs :/
I’m also starting to like the tt pick, but if he is to start (which would be very possible if hickson is traded), there is no way we can start both thompson and verajeo. None of them know how to play offense (except if thompson develops a jump shot, which will not be happening in one season). So then we would need a good scoring 5 so andy can become the 6th man again and become the backup for both the 4 and 5. Marc Gasol anybody?
I tend to think that TT being on the roster signals that JJ is on the way out. I’m assuming either TT or Andy will come off the bench, and we’ll get some other big to supplement the floor spacing.
Andy’s better offensively than people give him credit for, he sets good screens, finishes well, and cuts off the ball very effectively. For the time being, it’s going to be about how Andy fits, we’ll have TT for a while, he’ll find his nice later. Regardless of if we play Andy @ the 4/5, he needs to be partnered with a big that can force defenses to respect him 15 ft. from the basket.
TT and Andy can start together. Wanna know why? Cause the cavs are going to be bad this year (if there is a year). They can start and they can be active and they can learn how to play defense with one another and they can work on their fft within the offense and they can lose. It’s going to happen. We can accept it and we can embrace it. This is a multi-year project, and this year (if it happens) is about starting anew and getting our foundation down. Last year sucked, but it had to happen, we had to bottom out and get some talent. It’s going to be a low scoring, defensive team this year. Kyrie, Parker(or other plug in – ramon, Baron, Boobie, Gee, Graham, what have you – this is the real, real big hole), Eyenga, TT, and Andy makes for a very active, young and strong defensive lineup that I’m looking forward to see grow together (and in all likelihood fail together this year.) It’s sad, but I’m already looking forward to next years draft. This, as oppose to other teams (who are not good NBA franchises) feels different, because I wholeheartedly trust this management team. From the owner to the GM to the coach. I believe in their commitment to winning.
I completely agree with Cake and easy it?
The problem with the draft is that you figure out who it is you want you team to draft and then you talk yourself out of everyone else and talk yourself INTO that (those) player(s). In this case I waffled back and forth between Irving and Williams and it wasn’t until I read all the advanced stats on irving that I was convinced that he has the potential to be as good as Chris Paul. (not saying he will ever be nearly that good – just saying he has the tools) I, too, talked myself into Jonas so TT was a pretty big letdown, and I, too, much like a lot of the readers here have since talked myself into the pick. After all, if Hollinger had him rated number 3 and he really does have a relentless motor, he could be a stud. I’m alarmed by the lack of defensive rebounding and FT shooting, but I think he will definitely learn how to get in position for boards. I am sure he will never be better than a 55-60% FT shooter, but Shaq and Ben Wallace have 5 titles between them. Great write up, Kevin.
We could also start thompson and jj as our 4s and 5s. That way, hickson will be the lone offensive weapon and could potentially score 18 to 20 ppg, thus increasing his trade value. Also, something that I just found out (although many people already knew this) is that if there is a full season lockout, you have to find the average of what your teams record was for the past 5 seasons. The cavaliers averaged out at 48 wins per season, so they will pick in the 18-25 range. Definitely not where you want to be drafting if you are a rebuilding team.
That is valuable knowledge. So the cavs need some games this year. I think the crazy part is, I am already looking forward to next year’s draft where there are at least 3 wing players in the top 10 worthy of a pick. I want the Cavs to get Irving and TT some time this year as nothing matters until 2012-13
Hopfully (but not likely) they can reach an agreement before a lockout starts.
I was surprised by the TT selection. But upon further review, I like it. The Cavs are rebuilding only partly on the basis of talent — they’re also looking for the right kinds of guys. Think of it as an OKC Thunder or Dallas Mavs sort of thing, rather than an Celtics/Lakers/Heat model. They know that they must find high-caliber leaders and teammates who are also really good players to build this team in Cleveland. Not just raw talent alone. Because of free agency, history of the league, market size and geography, the Cavs brass knows that they are somewhat unlikely to have league MVPs at their disposal. Theirs will not be a superstar-driven team. That once-in-a-lifetime moment happened in the LBJ-era, and it’s not happening again.
It’s perfectly logical. Irving’s calm demeanor, polished leadership (and big-time PG talent) are a perfect fit for the above philosophy. TT fits this too. His energy and work-ethic are just as important as the rebounding and defensive talent he flashed at Texas. I think Grant sees a kid who is on the verge of rounding out his game, because he has the work ethic and smarts to develop. And a guy who happily did whatever it takes to win at Texas – did all the dirty work from day one.
Almost all NBA players improve their shooting as their careers progress. You never see a pretty shooter all of the sudden turn into a defensive stopper and gritty rebounder, though. TT should be a rotation guy with energy in his rookie year….probably also in foul trouble a lot, to be honest. So while Jonas would have been cooling his heels in Europe, we’ll have a guy learning in the league. And he’s a guy who has already shown lots of improvement.
Now the Cavs need to focus on wing players — and this draft didn’t really have any of those, so I applaud that they didn’t over-draft a wing just based on need. They can look for 2s and 3s who can be closers on offense and solid defenders.
I have enjoyed these posts and comments because my opinions have followed a similar trajectory. We all convinced ourselves JV was the guy b/c of where the scouts and opinions were trending – and we even suspected front office incompetence (in large part due to Woj’s reporting of our interest in trading down to get him).
But I think most of us recognize that the “incompetence” scenario is extremely unlikely. Gilbert isn’t an idiot millionaire like the Maloofs. He is shrewd. He would not have a staff of gamblers and panickers.
So I firmly believe they picked the guys they wanted. We can only know if they were right over a period of years, as the talent develops. And we will likely never know the reason why they passed on JV.
Butwhile we certainly don’t owe Grant the benefit of the doubt, it is actually more interesting to speculate on their reasoning (rather than bashing it).
For the JV pass, I can think of a few possible explanations -
-The most widely asserted is the buyout issue. This alone can’t be the reason. If they knew they were getting him in 2012, and they want him, then they pick him. An issue may be that the agreement was in place, but unsigned – is there a chance he doesn’t come until 2013? Is there a risk of worse? We’ll see what happens with Toronto.
-We tend to talk about prospects in terms of ceiling – and a lot of folks seem to think JV had a high one. But they are likely looking at “probability of reaching ceiling”, “probability of bust”, and everything in between. I suspect that on this measure, TT was the safer pick – a high probability of achieving “starter on championship team” level, and though JV could be more, perhaps the risk was too great that he’d be less. A lot of us thought this was a pick to swing for the fences, but they may not see it that way.
-Maybe our front office is deeply committed to stats. Not only did TT score highest in Hollinger’s model, but BB Prospectus (in a different stat model) had him in the top 3. It seems that, historically, his strengths translate very well.
-The interview. All GMs talk about “character” but there’s definitely reason to believe that the Cavs have stronger opinion about character than most teams. It’s not like JV was unknown to them. Grant went to Lithuania twice… they flew JV to Cleveland the day before the draft. Maybe something wasn’t clicking. Maybe they have a personality litmus test that he didn’t pass.
Of course, a (good) GM can never explain why they passed on someone, so we’ll probably never know… but we do know that they made their decision with a lot of information on hand.
Honestly, the trade at 32 is even harder to figure out. It’s just hard to believe that someone (Tyler Honeycutt) isn’t even worth even a camp invite to see if he’s better than Alonzo Gee. So what could be going on? They had to know that there was at least some small chance of these guys developing into something good… In their model, though, that chance must have been too small for the cost of development. And the value of two unspecified second round picks must have greater value – as trade sweeteners – than specific names. Picks have no cost/salary associated with them, and with CBA change that is probably a driving factor.
As for the Macvan pick, I just have two thoughts – they wanted someone who was definitely not coming over for a few years (I believe he has an NBA out after 3). I wouldn’t say he has no chance of ever coming – I think they took him because he could come over and be a role player with almost no development. He’s a great passer and can knock people down with his wide picks. A useful fifth big man on a champioship contender.
I am certain, unfortunately, that there will be no more moves until the lockout is done. And while this is disappointing (Gilbert spoiled us with his willingness to take on BD’s salary) it is definitely a wise move. If they did something aggressive only to be totally handcuffed for 2 years with the new CBA, we’d all think they were morons.
So it’s basically time to go to sleep on the basketball front for 3-5 months… I hadn’t heard about the “5-yr win avg” for determining lottery pick – I hope that’s not true!
I saw it on a comment on realcavsfans.com. Hopefully that isnt true but if it is hopefully we can have a full season. I would hate it to have no football or basketball next season.