The following post is fairly critical of the Cavs’ draft day decisions. I will preface the post by noting that the Cavs have much more information at their disposal than I do and surely have very talented people working on their player evaluations. They could also have a big trade in the works. Finally, it is foolish to evaluate a draft one day afterwards. With that said…
My reaction to the Cavs’ draft is confusion. Draft day started with so much promise. The Cavs had the 1st and 4th picks, two second rounders, a huge trade exception, and an owner willing to spend money. The options seemed limitless and, at a minimum, it appeared the day should end with the Cavs having two long-term starters and a quality role player in tow. Something completely different happened. No picks were bought or traded for; instead a pick was traded away. At #4, the Cavs reached for a player that most had in the 8 – 10 range; who also plays the same position as two of their three best players under the age of thirty. Of their fifteen players, the Cavs have four point guards and six power forwards. Are the Cavs trying to remake themselves as the Minnesota Timberwolves? The trade exception expires in two weeks. Surely a trade is coming. This can’t be the last memory prior to a depressing lockout, can it? For pick by pick analysis:
Kyrie Irving – Kyrie should be the Cavs point guard for the next 12 years. If I was taking a glass half-full approach, more time would be spent discussing this pick.
Tristan Thompson – After the Irving pick, my assessment of the Cavs current roster of players under 30 would have been:
Part of the 10 year plan – Kyrie Irving
Part of the 5 year plan – Anderson Varejao
Gets one more year to prove he belongs as a starter in the five or ten year plan – JJ Hickson
Belongs in the NBA, but isn’t part of future plans – Daniel Gibson, Ramon Sessions. I’m sorry, Boobie. You were fine when the Cavs dominant ball handler was a 6’9” small forward. Now that the dominant ball handler is 6’3”, it’s time for us to go our separate ways. Thanks for the memories and good luck with your continued NBA career.
Players with one more year to prove they at least belong on an NBA bench – Samardo Samuels, Ryan Hollins, Semih Erden, Christian Eyenga, Manny Harris & Luke Harangody.
The top five are point guards and power forwards, so the Cavs could really use a center and some wing players. Hickson, Gibson, and Sessions would have been available for the right price. Fortunately for the Cavs, the best player available was a center; Lithuanian Jonas Valanciunas. Jonas is seven feet tall with a 7’-4” winspan. He has been a great U18 player in Europe and had a very promising season in the Euroleague, the second best professional basketball league in the world. Some scouts thought he could eventually be the best player from this draft; and two of the best run organizations in basketball (Spurs and Thunder), were rumored to want to trade into the lottery to draft him.
Then the Cavs draft Tristan Thompson. I liked Thompson well enough and had him rated as the #11 prospect; but he wasn’t the best player available and fills a lesser need than Valanciunas. Despite being a freshman, Thompson is 20 years old (2 months older than Derrick Williams, 14 months older than Valanciunas). Thompson has great potential as a defensive player, but overall he is very raw. A few random stats on him:
Draftexpress.com compared 17 big men’s situational play. Overall, Thompson was fourth to last for points per possession (ppp). His 0.747 ppp on post-ups was second to last and his 0.654 ppp on jump shots was the worst, despite taking less than one jumper per game.
Thompson got to the free throw line more frequently than any other big man; however he only shot 49% when there. Thompson is a very raw offensive prospect. He scores on putbacks, cuts, and occasionally in isolation situations when he can beat less athletic players off the dribble. He will face many fewer “less athletic” players in the NBA.
Thompson was a great offensive rebounder, grabbing 14.0% of available offensive rebounds. If he can eventually rebound with the same efficiency in the NBA, he would be a top five offensive rebounder for a power forward. The flip side is that he only grabbed 13.6% of available defensive rebounds. It’s pretty rare for someone to rebound better on offense than defense. Even if he can grab defensive rebounds at the same rate in the NBA as in college; he would rank as a bottom ten power forward in the NBA, comparable to players like Danilo Gallinari and Rashard Lewis. His poor defensive rebounding is generally attributed to poor fundamentals and positioning. He definitely needs to improve these skills in order to fill his most likely role in the NBA.
Hopefully time reveals that this draft is a huge success for the Cavs, but one day later it’s hard to get excited about Tristan Thompson at #4, considering the huge potential that the start of draft day promised.
#32 pick – This pick was confusing when the Cavs picked Justin Harper. Another power forward? The Cavs and Timberwolves should play one game next year where all that plays is point guards and power forwards. Anyways, Harper was at least a quality addition and a player that I had rated as #31 in the draft. Then the Cavs traded him for future 2nd round picks. What? I thought the Cavs were the team that was going to be buying draft picks; or they were going to trade #32 and #54 to move into the late part of the first round. Instead they punted? Perhaps with the lockout coming, the Cavs thought it was better to have picks in future years. Maybe they tried to trade into the late first round and draft Nikola Mirotic, but the Bulls made a better offer. Regardless, as far as short term satisfaction is concerned; the outcome of the #32 pick is surely lacking. Even for long term considerations, the value of two picks in the 40 – 50 range is unlikely to have better benefit than picking someone at 32 this year.
Milan Macvan – This is a throw away pick. Macvan is 6’9”, 265 lbs. He is technically a center in Europe, but there is no way he ever plays center in the NBA at 6’9” with poor athleticism (so the Cavs drafted another PF). Even as a PF, many expect he will never play in the NBA; both due to lack of necessary ability but also due to lack of desire to come to the NBA. He is a totally serviceable center in the Euroleague, and I wish him a great career. If the Cavs wanted to stash a Euro here; they could have drafted Adam Hanga (who the genius Spurs drafted at #59) or Georgi Shermadini, a 7’-1” center who had a PER of 23 in fifteen Euroleague games this year. There were also at least ten American players that were drafted later or weren’t drafted, that are more likely to see minutes in the NBA than Macvan (ten players with a chance greater than zero).
Like most Cavs fans, I was disappointed by yesterday’s outcome. I hope that several years from now, when I re-read this, all I can think is: “Wow, I was really dumb for doubting the Cavs. They never would have won their NBA championship if Tristan Thompson didn’t lock down Kevin Durant like that. I wonder if they’ll retire his jersey some day?” For now though; I’ll hope for an interesting trade, a 2011 – 2012 NBA season, and the start of the Kyrie Irving / Tristan Thompson era in Cleveland. (I added Thompson to the last sentence as an edit. Welcome to Cleveland, Tristan. Hopefully any doubts only drive you to become a better player.)
LOVE your ending
Question: Have you guys watched Grant’s Presser from last night? If so, do you think he is straight lying about how much he loves TT? If not, then what is your criticism of his reasoning for choosing TT (i.e. TT was the highest player on their board, and they believe the best strategy it to take the best talent regardless of position)?
It seems like everyone is upset by the choice, but no one is addressing the presented rationale by Grant. Overall I trust Grant, and since he seems truly fired up about TT, I am behind him. If you are not behind Grant, can you explain why? Particularly, why do you trust your own scouting of Jonas more than his?
Where does your trust in Grant come from Bryan? This is his first NBA draft as a GM. Since he joined the Cavs in 2005 we’ve only had picks in the 06, 08, and 09 drafts. And who is to say that Ferry wasn’t making the decisions then. So what kind of NBA draft track record are you going by that you trust Chris Grant?
The fact is we got a PF who has almost no offensive game whatsoever. He is a project who really doesn’t fit with what we have now. I mean are they going to stick him out there with Varejao and play two PF’s who can’t score? Or stick him out there with Hickson and play two PF’s one who only plays on defense and one who only plays on offense? And if he is meant to be a project why not get Valanciunas and let him stay in Europe for another year.
With the #4 pick in the NBA draft you should be able to get more than a decent defender with no offensive game. I hope I’m wrong and this kid turns into a solid starter. But to me it seems like the #4 pick got us a rotation PF.
Bryan,
I certainly don’t suggest Grant is lying about liking Thompson. I don’t “trust” my scouting more than the Cavs either. I’m a fan with a computer and an opinion. The Cavs certainly have resources beyond my comprehension.
The reasons I don’t like Thompson at number 4 are explained in the article. He has a very unrefined offensive game and he is a very poor free throw shooter. I don’t have very good information to quantify his defense besides blocks and steals. When I wrote the Kawhi Leonard profile, I went through the play by play data from 17 SDSU games, thinking I would determine that SDSU’s defense was much better with Leonard on the court. I ended up determining the contrary; over those 17 games, SDSU was 7 points per 100 possessions worse on defense with Leondard in the game (they were better on offense though). I haven’t looked that closely at Thompson. All I know is that Texas was +323 with him on the court and +45 when he was off the court. He played about 31 minutes per game, so Texas was better per minute when he played (but not as good as some others in the draft based on this simple method). The Cavs surely have much better informaton to quantify Thompson’s defense; like the player he’s guardings production, per possession data for Texas when Thompson is on-court / off-court, etc. At a minimum, I know he is largely a one way player right now.
I know Valanciunas is 7′ tall, 245 lbs with a 7’4″ wingspan. He played 61 games this year in professional European leagues, including 15 games in the Euroleague (the best competition in Europe). At 19 years old, per 40 minutes across all 61 games he averaged 20+ pp40, 14+ rp40, 3+ bp40 with nearly 70% fg shooting and over 80% ft shooting. In his Euroleague games he averaged 20 pp40, 15 rp40, and 1.8 blocks per 40 with 70% shooting and 89% ft shooting. Besides the fact he was foul prone, he was awesome. He needs to improve his strength and defensive instincts, but those are things that should come with time. We know that Valanciunas can rebound and finish at the basket in leagues with players stronger than him. In general, this just sounds better to me than what I know about Thompson.
Obviously, I hope to be wrong.
There is a lot we don’t know. The Cavs worked out all these guys and studied tape so they know how each guy plays. They know they could sign TT right now (or soon). Many lessons have been learned from Rubio (contract nightmare) and Darko (look up his pre-NBA stats…had an 18-15 vs Pau in the 2006 Worlds).
Get over it! I’m sorry, but this is ridiculous.
Krolik, I blame you for letting one of your buddies post here. TT is a fine pick, he provides skills. Better and more consistent skills than JJ.
It was readily apparent that this draft was not talented. It was weak. Yet for some reason everyone is up in arms we dint invest heavily in this! What am I missing?! This is a long process that were starting and trying to take shortcuts is how you end up at the beginning. TT has as much star potential as anyone else after the first 2 picks here. I choose to support the cabs management instead of being miserable. I suggest everyone else get on board too. You don’t turn a mid market franchise around overnight in a weak draft. We came out of the draft with 1, maybe 2 long term answers. I’m satisfied. I’m rooting for a lockout and Austin rivers.
Kevin,
I agree with your analysis of Big V and respect the care you put into. There is a lot controversy amongst Cavs fans about the TT pick, so I am trying to assess whether the controversy comes down to 1) differences in scouting opinions between the fans and Grant, or 2) a belief that the Cavs actually made a blunder and didn’t get what they wanted, (i.e. the Cavs really wanted Big V, but took TT in the hopes of being able to trade down and get Big V plus an additional pick later) or didn’t properly prioritize the positions they needed to fill (i.e. a C is more important than a PF so choosing TT was folly).
If the controversy is driven by 1), then all we can do is wait, and see whose scouting opinion turns our to be right. Given how much noise there is in evaluating talent, its tough to really be overly critical about the choice if Grant and his staff really believe in TT.
If the controversy is drive by 2), then I think fans have a right to be deeply concerned, because it suggests incompetence on the front office’s part.
When I first saw the pick, I actually thought 2) was the case. But after watching how fired up Grant and Scott were, I felt that 1) was the case. I generally agreed with their argument that they had to take the top 2 guys on their board regardless of position, and I generally believe that that is what they did. So now I am OK with it.
From your response, it sounds like you are also in camp 1).
Dave,
The 2006 world championships were three years into Milicic’s NBA career. Stats I have found for Milicic as a teenager in Europe (2002 – 2003) are in 20 mpg, he averaged 9.5 ppg and 4.6 rpg on 48% fg shooting and 67% ft shooting. He rebounded and scored much more poorly than Valanciunas.
Cake and eat it?,
John Krolik and I have never met. My “reaction” piece is admittedly glass half empty. I am happy that the Cavs now have Irving. Thompson is also definitely a talent upgrade. Regarding “shortcuts”; I think taking Valanciunas, who won’t play until 2012, is less of a shortcut that taking Thompson.
Well like my name says im going to start watching the cavs next season. The reasons? Well i dont have a favorite team(not from the states) and i think its going to be fun to watch this team grow
To be fair, there was not anybody that was great fit at 4. It is a little silly to get heart broken over a 19 year old European who may not come to the league for.a year or two. You could criticize over any player they got at 4. In addition, 2nd round picks have very little value in the nba. I venture to.say 5% make it in the league, which may be high
Macvan? Why bother? How about taking a shot on someone like Jereme Richmond from Illinois who has NBA athleticism and a ton of potential?
And I love the people who think we shouldn’t be criticizing our GM. I’ve said this before… Chris Grant chose a career path that invites criticism of his actions. He knew what he was getting into. That’s what sports is all about.
He may be vindicated. But there is just as good of a chance that he will fail. While I wish him the best, I’m not going to sit on my hands and give him a free pass because it’s his first draft in the big boy chair. I watched the video. I looked at the stats. I think viewing Tristan Thompson as a potential reliable NBA rotation player on a good team is unrealistic. You’re 20-years-old with no offensive game to speak of? Is it just going to appear out of thin air?
I actually have no problems with the draft. The Cavs got Irving, the best player in this draft. Everyone after Irving and Williams were/are projects. The Cavs went with the project they liked the most. No problems with that. Also don’t see why people are upset about trading Justin Harper. They didn’t see anyone that warranted drafting, so they moved the pick for two seconds in 2013 and 2014. With Dwight Howard likely on his way out, those picks could be high up. The last pick was a draft and stash.
So like I said, no problems with the draft.
Having had a day to process, I still think this is a bad omen for the Chris Grant era. Luckily Kahn trumped him by taking a 26 year old rookie from Africa whose age was listed wrongly. In the words of Alan from the Hangover, “Classic.”
I really don’t like the excuse makers who say give him the benefit of the doubt, and this is the first year of rebuilding, the rest of us know nothing… Chris Ford recently wrote a column about how scouting is getting so much more advanced and statistical rankings are getting so much more complex, and yet teams are drafting worse than they ever have. Part of this problem is due to a complete and total lack of common sense when it comes to building a “team.” Part of the rule is you get guys who are Alpha Dogs and surround them with players that complement them.
I know an Alpha Dog when I see one, and I fear Kyrie Irving is too quiet to be such. Also, you can’t take the “wait till next draft” approach in the NBA because you could be the worst team in the league and be drafting fourth every time. You have to take the guys who you think will be good as soon as possible, because if they’re good in 5 years, they’ll be good for someone else (see Jermaine O’Neal, Tracy McGrady, Anderson Varajao, Ben Wallace, Chauncy Billups, Joe Johnson, etc). If you take a project, he has to be able to develop within 3 years at the most, or you’re giving up on him or trading him. This is the fear I have with Tristan Thompson.
Finally, I really was irritated to have you talk about trading Boobie and Andy. They’re the last link to the Cavs finals team, and the teams that have carried us to the playoffs. They’ve played their hearts out for Cleveland and I love them. They are character guys who leave it all on the floor and generally play the game the right way. They are guys you have to have in the locker room to show young players how to be pros. Don’t trade them just to get “talent.” If you’re not rooting for players who have busted their butts for you, and you want to see them go, you’re just rooting for laundry. This was probably the mistake we made with Z. Who knows what that trade said to LeBron about loyalty. Don’t repeat the same mistakes. Center the team around defense, work ethic, and character. That’s Z and Boobie to a T. Don’t trade them to chase “talent.”
Gllad to see people are cooling down about the idea that Thompson was some sort of botched trade — agree with Brian that Chris Grant seems pretty authentic when he sings this guy’s praises, for better or worse. Appreciate all the draft analysis you’ve done Kevin, both in this piece and those before it. I had my eyes on Jonas as well, though wasn’t shocked by this pick. I think I’m a glass half-full guy who’s managed to talk myself into this. I think the pure FG% numbers are hard to project because Thompson was asked to do more for Texas than Valanciunas is for his Lithuanian team. Thompson seems adequate as a garbage bucket guy off offensive rebounds and as a pick and roll finisher. That’s the entirety of Jonas’s game. Thompson tried to do a little more with some leaners, some shots out to ten feet, some shots on the move and his conversion rate was low. From the perspective of Texas maybe I’d be mad he took those since they were inefficient possession uses (though arguably more efficient than a 25 footer from Jordan Hamilton), but from the point of view of the Cavs it doesn’t really bother me — might even mean he’s closer to developing those weapons than JV. The free throw percentage is troubling and that was a red flag I worried about with Vesely, so I guess I have to be honest and harp on it with Thompson too.
Defensively we’re wowed by Jonas’s size and say “oh, but he fouls too much, but whatever.” That fouling is a symptom of him basically being an entirely raw defensive player. I agree that with his frame and age that he has plenty of time to develop these skills. But Tristan Thompson was an elite level college defender (albeit at the 4) as a college freshman. He’s more advanced in every facet of the game except free throw shooting. He’s a year older and three inches shorter. You weight those and I don’t think the answer is obvious. Again, I professed my desire for Valanciunas to be the pick before, but I don’t feel like this was a reach. In 5 years there will probably be 4 or 5 guys from the top 10 that pan out. I hope we have 2 of them.
HoopsDogg,
I appreciate your comments on all of my posts. For the record, I had Varejao as someone to build around.
I also like Gibson and fortunately for everyone, I have nothing to do with Cavs’ personnel decisions. The Cavs have four point guards (including Gibson) under contract for the next two years. Moving Davis will be hard, so if the Cavs can trade Sessions or Gibson, they should consider it. Gibson may be better off with a contender that has more immediate use for him.
A few thoughts.
First, THANK YOU to someone who finally wrote an article that takes some perspective into account when analyzing the Cavs picks. Looked at from all angles, good and bad. It is important to not take what the front office says to the media as the absolute truth.
With that being said, sometimes reporters put these guys in a situation where the truth comes out. Listen to the interview on the ESPN Cavs team page with Colin Cowherd and Chris Grant – Cowherd asks him about the TT pick, and Grant says TT and Kyrie were “guys on the top of our board.” Cowherd then follows up with a question of if Kanter and TT were available at 4, would he have still selected TT? – Grant avoids the question and repeats “Tristan was very high on our board all year, Colin.”
As a GM, you are not going to say “Oh, yeah…we wanted Kanter and had him higher than TT.” And to the great observation made by Bryan on the potential failed Jonas swap with Charlotte – a GM is not going to say “Oh yeah, we drafted TT to trade him and then got screwed when Toronto took him at 5. Welp, welcome to Cleveland, Tristan.” What kind of vote of confidence would that be? Like Bryan, I pray this is not what really happened.
I wanted Jonas. When you have a chance to add an athletic, fit 7 footer to your roster that plays defense and shoots well from FT – and the fact that next year’s C talent is even worse, I think you have to pull the trigger. Maybe the contract situation was murkier than reported, but we are at a stage of rebuilding where next year doesn’t matter. Stash the guy overseas and lose more games than you would if he was here and give your team more lottery balls.
Still very early to make judgement on these selections but it is refreshing to know someone else was able to recognize that we avoided filling our top 3 needs whatsoever (SG, SF, C). I’m no expert, but it just seems like common sense goes out the window sometimes in these drafts, i.e. taking Christian Eyenga over DaJuan Blair/Sam Young, etc a few years ago (Yes, I thought that on draft night so it’s not just hindsight). Would have been nice to maybe take a flier on a guy like Marshon Brooks who we were only a few spots away from. Who knows, maybe if we took TT to trade him, we would be sitting here talking about how Chris Grant is a wizard for getting the guy they wanted (Jonas) and getting an extra pick from Charlotte and using it on a top SG.
With all of that opinionated garbage being spewed, here is the positive rationale I’ve come up with – BScott is sick of dealing with JJ’s inconsistency and no D so they got his replacement in TT (who actually is a Hickson clone, just younger). I think there is a gap in the value we hold for JJ and the value he could get from other teams on the open market in 2013. Why not trade this guy now and get some young talent or potential lottery picks instead of nothing later. This should be a complete rebuilding, so keep JJ the II since he is on par age wise with Kyrie. And the same said for Varej, who has more value to another team than to us. Lovey dovey feelings are great and all, but these are professional athletes that are driven by prick owners that will follow the trail of dollars. It’s a simple business move to recognize when to buy and when to sell. We should be able to at least get that part right.
i dont know what any of you guys are talking about. Thompson is better then any foreign player to come out and i think he is the thrid best player in this draft. If u are doubting him just look at his game that he played against Kansas, he dominated the morris brothers. No foriegn basketball players are doing that. You guys need to open ur eyes foreign players hardly make it the nba.
Well, according to Hollinger, who has a far better track record of predicting draft prospects than anyone, Thompson WAS the best player available and the third best player in the draft. I think his numbers and track record hold just a little bit more weight than “Jonas is better because I say so”.
base,
I took a quick look at the box scores for Texas’ games against Kansas and Arizona. I recall from watching the Arizona game that Derrick Williams struggled offensively against Thompson. A quick box score summary:
In the two games that Thompson played two games against the Morris twins, the first time he was very good in a Texas victory. In 38 minutes, he had 12 points, 6, rebounds and 5 blocks in 38 minutes. Marcus Morris was held to 16 points on 17 shots with 7 rebounds. Markieff (in 23 minutes) had 10 points on 7 shots with 5 rebounds.
In the second game, which was a Kansas win; Thompson had 7 points, 2 rebounds and 1 block in 11 minutes. He was in foul trouble all game with 4 fouls in those 11 minutes. The Morris’ combined for 31 points on 18 shots with 15 rebounds (54 total minutes).
In the NCAA tournament game against Arizona, Thompson’s #4 seeded Texas team lost a close battle against #5 seeded Arizona. Derrick Williams had 17 points on 14 shots with 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals in 29 minutes. He also had four turnovers. Thompson had 3 points, 6 rebounds and 4 blocks in 36 minutes.
He “dominated” in one of those three games.
You didn’t just want Valenciunus, you wanted the moon,
” at a minimum, it appeared the day should end with the Cavs having two long-term starters and a quality role player in tow”
THAT’S AT A MINIMUM YOU SAY. This is a bad draft, we knew it going in. The cavs were shit out of luck when they got picks at the top of this draft. To forget all this as you go in, and expect to have gotten two starters AND a role player AND use the trade exception to buy a player (separate rant: which player? who? name someone? this isn’t the English Premier league or MLB where money is the only thing you need to improve your team. Especially with in all likelihood a hard cap coming to the NBA, it may even be smarter not to use the TPE on a terrible contract with an mediocre to decent player attached (think baron davis and antawn jamison) and as everyone’s favorite rookie, inexperienced, juvenile GM says “maintain roster flexibility.” Before the next NBA game is played, the NBA playing field is most likely going to be vastly different.) is just plain silly. It is.
Kyrie Irving was the closest thing to a sure thing in this draft, and he’s a cavalier. In a weak draft, an event that on an average year will see 50% of its first round players make no impact whatsoever (please don’t research that fact; i clearly haven’t) I think getting Kyrie Irving is the only real victory to be had. Everything else, from taking a 7’0” with a 7’4′ wingspan project to taking a 6’8 with a 7’2” prospect isn’t all that big of a leap.
This whole article wreaks of cynicism for cynicism’s sake, And excuse my extreme reaction, but this is the attitude that for so long was finally gone in one of the Cleveland franchises and it dissapoints me to see it creeping back. We have one of the best owners in the NBA committed to winning and a GM with the forsight and, up to this point, a plan. I don’t want to kill this pick, I want to cheer it on and look to the future. IF all this offseason produces is Kyrie Irving. That’s a success. We were making moves to be in the top 10 of a lottery that was bereft of talent. I can’t wait to see how aggressive we get next year.
p.s. sorry for the “Krolik’s friend” comment. It was unproductive and unfair.
Oh, and the line I really wanted to use after I quoted you was – “It appears you were glass half full before the draft simply so you could be glass half empty after it.”
I thought it was clever, so imagine it up there, too.
First off- thanks for having this blog.
I really want the Cavs to pickup undrafted David Lighty now. I really can’t believe he didn’t get picked up by someone, and we need to capitalize on it and get him. Anyone else think he’d be a great fit on the Cavs?
My biggest disappointment with the draft is that no sweet deals were made. That 4 pick I feel like had a lot of value that we could have leveraged, yet didn’t. I was really dreaming of getting the rumored #2 pick and landing Williams. That would have been awesome. When we didn’t get Kanter, then it put us in a weird spot for any pick, because everyone left would have been overvalued at four in this draft. That being said, I’m soooo glad they didn’t pick JV. I’m too nervous and leery about tall skinny Euro big guys “that have a soft touch” and play more of a finesse style. “If you can get a 7 ft. Center- you should”- and have two Ryan Hollins on our team? No thanks. TT is a beast and now we can finally get rid of JJ Hickson- the guy seems like a cancer to the team (like Moe Williams). Get all the lazy and entitled players off the Cavs roster.
TT’s shooting will improve (how can it not?), but lemme point out a stat I find strange with TT- his def. rebounding stat; weird to have more offensive rebounds then defensive rebounds. It’s not a good thing, but it certainly isn’t bad. Defensive rebounds are in a sense “gimmes” or “expected.” Offensive rebounds on the other hand are extremely valuable, especially in the NBA as it creates a second opportunity to score and possession time is extended. If someone is a good rebounder, then offensive boards indicate it. Why were his def. rebounds so low at Texas if he’s such a good offensive rebounder? idk.
Last thing. On ESPN Radio, after Lebron choked (YESSS!!!), one of the radio host pointed out and opined that strong leaders have strong fathers and gave a lot of good examples. FYI- that’s Kyrie, and not Lebron. Kyrie is going to be the bedrock of this team, and I have soooo much confidence in this kid. He’s got a killer in him, and it comes out on the court. Just look at the way he came into Duke (!), as a freshman, and ran the team with complete confidence. He’s not worried about the glitz and the glamor and throwing baby powder up in the air- only winning, which is what we should get used to experiencing again soon with this guy.
I don’t understand everyone’s fascination with Lighty. He was slightly above average as a fifth year senior in a down year of talent. How in the world does that translate to good NBA player? Danny Green was a better prospect than him and we saw how well he turned out. Who is the last fifth year senior to have an impact in the NBA?
Here’s my extremely amateur analysis of the Cavs trade options, numbered by who I would like to see them trade the most.
1. Davis: This is likely impossible, at least without taking back an equally bad or worse contract.
2. Jamison: The expiring contract likely has value to other teams, but the Cavs would have to take that much back in salary, and I don’t think teams would want to send quality young talent just for the chance to save money. Maybe a gullible contender would send us a late first round pick and some filler. It would have to be a lot of filler because Jamison’s contract is some high number that I’m too lazy to look up. Still, I’d consider that deal.
3. Sessions: A lot of teams would be happy to have Sessions. NY reportedly has interest, though what could they offer? Ideally, they’d trade Davis instead, but Sessions could probably get more in return. Maybe packaged with someone else the Cavs want to dump.
4. Hickson: Probably has the most value of the four on this list so far. Given the logjam at the 4/5 and gaping hole at the 2, 3, as well as the fact the HIckson plays no defense, I think the Cavs should trade him before the season starts.
5 and 6. Boobie and Varejao: Don’t really want either traded, but they represent the best chance to improve the team long term. Varejao, at least, has a lot of value to other teams. And he’ll be on the wrong side of thirty once the Cavs start to improve (fingers crossed). Would only trade him for a really good offer.
Josh,
My rationale on Valanciunas is briefly discussed in a response above and also in a previous draft profile. Click on draft profiles on the right hand side of the main page and scroll down. I probably posted it about a month ago.
Regarding Hollinger’s Draft Rater, it is imperfect and even he admits that. Also Valanciunas was only one behind Thompson in the 2011 draft rater. I like Hollinger, but in 2010 he had Evan Turner over John Wall. In 2009, he had Ty Lawson over Blake Griffin, Danny Green over James Harden, and Nick Calathes at #6. 2008 was probably his worst year; when Michael Beasley was a “sure thing”, Derrick Rose was a “solid first rounder”, Darnell Jackson was rated above JJ Hickson, Mike Green was a first rounder, George Hill “better update his passport”, Joe Alexander was “a solid first rounder” and Russell Westbrook was “riff-raff”
kavsfan,
Valanciunas has always been described as different than the typical Euro bigman. He rebounds aggressively and finishes strong near the basket.
cakeandeatit?,
I still stand by the “two starters and a role player” statement. Many people thought this draft was short on stars, but long on role players. The #32 pick seemed like a solid place to expect a future rotation player. And hopefully the Cavs have drafted two long term starters. I won’t argue that they haven’t, just that I liked Valanciunas better than Thompson.
I agree with your sentiment about the trade exception, and don’t think the Cavs should use it just for the sake of using it. There were rumors about the Cavs using it to pick up a lottery pick and that was part of why I refer to the day starting filled with promise. I wasn’t trying to be “cynical for cynicism” sake. I was one of the Cavs:the Blog “draft experts” and thought I’d post my reaction to the draft. My initial “reaction” was that I was confused about the draft. I also look forward to the Cavs’ new start whenever the NBA plays again.
Maybe I’ll talk to John about letting me post a “glass half full reflection” to contrast my “glass half empty reaction”.
Thanks for the response, Kevin. I appreciate your posts, and those of the whole CavsTheBlog crew. I’ve probably been posting too much on here, but it was nice to see I wasn’t the only person baffled by Tristan Thompson. I wasn’t generally responding to you in particular, but everyone who wants to get rid of every serviceable player we have who isn’t on a rookie contract, and last year it seemed like Boobie was one of the few people who was really fed up with the Cavs losing, and trying to break out of it, which to me is invaluable. Keep up the good work.
First, I was getting the feeling listening and reading all the draft stuff that a lot of these international players were getting overblown. The weak draft and prob the success of Dirk played into this. Not that foreign players are bad, but they are usually a bigger unknown than college players, and that has to be factored.
Second, I think TT was drafted for a trade. However, there is no way the front office mad that pick without believing that they would b ok if a trade fell through. Of course Big V and an extra pick would have ideal, but TT with no extra pick is better than a shaky contract situation in Big V with no extra pick.
Question: are the NBA rules different than the NFL in trading picks? the other night it seemed like NBA teams made their selections and then traded the players afterward, in the NFL the teams usually trade the picks and then make their own selections. Seems like a higher risk selecting the player b4 you make the trade
Kevin, of course Hollingers system is not perfect, but I would think you would agree it’s been the most accurate of anything out there in predicting players NBA success, and some of his big busts, like Rose, he has explained going in that the system is unkind to freshman PG’s (which makes Irvings rating even more impressive). Also, if you look at past players rated as highly as TT, there has basically been one bust, Sweetney, and that was due to weight, not ability. And I wasn’t saying that TT was rated vastly better than Johan, just that not only was he rated similarly, but was actually rated higher. So to me getting that mad that we didnt draft a lower rated player is crazy. I wanted Johan too. In my very limited opinion, he was the best fit. But I trust Hollinger way more than mine (or yours or anyone else here’s) subjective opinion. If the Cavs, like Hollinger, had TT A’s the third best prospect it would have been dumb to pass on him just because we have other PF’s. Draft the best player and figure the rest out later.
ill give u that he only dominated one of those games but offensivley his not great. its his defensive attributes will give him a name in basketball. Those morris twins are older and hes only a freshman. I think if he would have stayed another year we might be talking about as a top three prospect. Im just saying the cavs are looking for the future and not now with him cuz they still have Hickson and Andy is really a power forward not a center. Plus the nba season for next year is still up in the air so u might be able to groom him.
If the cavs could have gotten JV and another first round pick, I would have been for it. As is and like I said, I still really like the TT pick. We upgraded the 4 position so now we can actually feel good about trading out our other 4 position players. Keep Varejo though- I love him, and he can play center. Also, Byron Scott seems to be slowly but surely shaping this team into people who have the right attitudes, characters, and work ethics and Andy is the epitome of that. I’d only ever want to trade Andy if it’s a really really good deal, and even then it would be sad.
I’ve heard that Scott has mentioned the idea of running the floor with both Byron and Kyrie, much like Barea and Kidd did in this past championship. Not a bad idea I think- get two of our best ball handlers and scorers out there together, and help address the 2/3 needs. With that said, I’m a fan of Davis and think he should be kept. He seems to have matured and seems really excited to be on this Cavs team, as evident by his efforts once he got to Cleveland and the immediate impact he had (wins). Also, his beard is definitely one of the best in the NBA .
David Lighty- typically 5th year seniors aren’t too impressive, but this guy played all those years with
Oden, Turner, and this last with Sullinger, all in the hopes to win a championship. On any other team where Lighty wasn’t always in somebody’s shadow, he would have been the key guy. Instead, he was always a role player, and developed into a really good one, which is exactly what the Cavs need at that position. He’s really consistent, super athletic, really good at defense, and an above average offensive player, and works his butt off. He has the “character quality” that I think Byron is promoting. Here’s a good reason too- he would be able to play immediately which can’t even be said of TT. Lastly, the worst but still valid reason, is he’d be a fan favorite.
The #32 pick was confusing at first, especially followed by our last pick, “The Van.” I was wanting a “wise” pick at 32 to help the teams position holes, but with trading it out for future picks I saw it as an even clearer indication that trades will be happening. The future picks I feel do have decent value to us, especially after this years draft and all the change it will hopefully bring. We can asses team needs later with them, after we see how this all pans out.
Non Sequitor- Tristan Thompson I think is going to look a lot cooler throwing down an oop-assist from Irving than JV ever would have.
Some more commentary on the big draft day and good old Lebron to boot :>)
http://basketballiguide.com/basketballiguide/Article/5516/Cavs—New-draft-redux—.aspx
Btw, can one of you guys, whether it be colin, kevin, our john krolik, make an article about all of the free agents that the cavaliers would be interested in? Or about possible trades that the team can make?
Good article. GM Grant says things i like in the link below
http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2011/06/draft_picks_just_the_first_ste.html
Good article about Kyrie’s history and his Fathers
http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2011/06/for_kyrie_and_dred_irving_a_lo.html
One more- this talks about the comparison and breakdown of Kyrie’s college year to derrick rose’s and chris paul’s. It’s unbiased and fair, and gives good reason to be really hopeful.
http://hoopstats101.blogspot.com/2011/05/2011-nba-draft-card-kyrie-irving.html
If TT is the long-term plan at PF and JJ and Andy are not, then what are your thoughts on trading one of them to Golden State for Monta Ellis? Seems like a mutually beneficial trade, since the Cavs need a SG and GS needs frontcourt help to compliment David Lee. Cavs would probably need to throw in another player (or two) such as Sessions (as back-up PG to Curry) to sweeten the deal for GS, but may be an option to use the TPE. With so many rumors about Monta wanting out and GS just drafting Klay Thompson it seems like it may be an option to pursue. Thoughts?