On the Valanciunas buyout
2011-06-21Well, things have just gotten more complicated. According to Chad Ford, there are some buyout issues with Jonas Valanciunas, who most mock drafts had going to the Cavs with the #4 pick and whom I’d kind of fallen in love with. Obviously, things are now more complicated than they were. As I see it, the Cavs now have the following options:
1. Draft Irving at the #1, Draft Valanciunas at the #4, and wait a year for Jonas to come to these United States of America. This would be what I would want, but it appears unlikely the Cavs will pursue this option.
Here’s my justification: Do I think that Valanciunas will be a better player in the 2012-13 season than Kanter or any other non-point guard player who will be available at the #4 spot? I do. Do I believe the Cavs are ready to make a serious playoff run in 2011-12? I do not. Given those two conclusions, I think it makes sense to take the best player, wait the year, and not settle on a lesser player because of impatience.
Top-5 picks do not come often. And if the Cavs end up being horrible again and getting another high-lottery pick next season instead of flirting with the 7th or 8th slot, I think that would ultimately be for the best. The variable here is that we never know exactly how buyouts will go — the Cavs certainly wouldn’t want to risk a Rubio, or, dare I say it, Fran Vasquez situation.
2. Take Irving at the #1 spot and take Kanter with the #4 if the Jazz go with Knight. If the Jazz go with Kanter, you take a risk on either Vesely, Leonard, or Biyombo with the #4. I like Kanter a LOT less than I like Valanciunas, because I worship at the altar of Joakim Noah and Tyson Chandler and think Al Jefferson is the most overrated player in basketball. This DX tidbit is pretty much a deal-breaker for me on Kanter:
This lack of experience shows up first and foremost on the defensive end, where Kanter was incredibly ineffective in the film we watched. His fundamentals, instincts and positioning leave a lot to be desired. He can often be found standing straight up in the paint with his arms down, putting in little to no effort. He rarely boxes out his opponent and generally looks disinterested in anything that has to do with defense. He rarely bends his knees and often fails to get back in transition–doing very little to protect the paint when he does.
From DraftExpress.comhttp://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Enes-Kanter-5168/#ixzz1Ptfnq191
Yikes. Thanks, but no thanks.
Vesely is a huge question mark. I don’t know much about Leonard, but he seems to scream “need pick.” I could actually sell myself on Bismack. He would be considered a MASSIVE reach, but it looks like he’s the best defensive player in several drafts, and the team DESPERATELY needs a defensive identity.
Varejao’s high-post skills actually do exist, he’s a natural 4 on defense, and both Varejao and Biyombo are great post defenders as well as great help-side/rotation defenders. There are worse default options than being able to roll out one of the best defensive frontcourts in the league. And a Biyombo/Hickson froncourt could actually work defensively, even though I think Hickson’s high-post skills aren’t good enough to make that frontcourt really click offensively.
3. Take Williams with the #1 and pick either Knight or Walker with the #4. I don’t love this. I’m 95-100% sold on Irving, 75-80% sold on Williams, and maybe 50% sold on Walker and Knight. Maybe they’ll become the next Durant and Westbrook, but I’m of the Moneyball theory of scouting to some extent — pro basketball isn’t a great place for guys to remake themselves. Knight and Walker weren’t efficient in college. Irving was hyper-efficient. Williams was hyper-efficient, but he doesn’t have a defensive position and the Cavs desperately need a defensive identity.
This draft is about building from the ground up. I think that starts with a guy who can definitely run an offense (Irving), and a guy who can help give the Cavs a defensive identity at the 4. I don’t know if an offense can be built around Williams, and in this scenario, the Cavs don’t address any defensive concerns. I don’t like that.
4. Try and pull off a trade with the #4 and land Irving and Williams. I actually have mixed feelings about this (DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE), but Williams is certainly a hell of an offensive player, and an Irving/Williams tandem would give the Cavs something to build around offensively.
The question here is whether it can actually happen. I have no idea what it would take to get that #2 pick. If it’s Hickson, Baron Davis, and the #4, done, although I would honestly have some reservations about giving up on Jonas. For the love of Pete, he’s a true 7-footer who loves defense and rebounding and shot 70% from the field and 90% from the FT line. Defense and efficiency incarnate. I LOVE defense and efficiency, which is why I hate Antawn Jamison.
Those are the options as I see them. We’ll see which one the Cavs go with on Thursday. For now, I’m sad that Cavs: The Blog’s official man-crush on Jonas Valanciunas seems like it will end before it ever really got a chance to begin. I shall weep for thee, Jonas. By the way, a pox on the house of Harrison Barnes, unless the Cavs are really bad again next season. (I actually might have taken Jonas over Barnes. I’m telling you, I am/was a man obsessed.)
Also, any time Sasha Kaun wants to come over, that would be very nice.
Living near SLC in a town with many Jazz connections… one thing the local Jazz Nation folks are saying is that if they aren’t 110% sold on Brandon Knight… Kanter is their next choice. (Call it the “Jimmer Effect”… they can always get a decent PG at #12) If Utah were to take Kanter at #3, then the draft gets even more interesting. There are teams that only like BK (and not Jimmer or Kemba) so #4 becomes more valuable… and makes the draft crazier. p.s. how can we use the TPE (in total or in parts) to get picks?… Read more »
@Different Nathan posting frequently makes me feel obliged to post as well, and I agree with him that the Cavs should be a lot more interested in getting many (2 or even 3?) mid round picks instead of the top 2 picks…this draft is weak at the top but a lot of talent will still be on the board later in the first round.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cavs took Kanter at 4 and waited for the #6 pick to be on the clock before pulling the trigger on the Wizards trade. That would take the guesswork out of the equation
If the name of the game is patience, we should just pick at the spots we have and see what we get. No sense in trading around unless its a total slam dunk in favor of the Cavs. Next year and the year after there will be drafts with players projected to be just as good if not better.
Okay, I did my part for Jonas:
Yeah but we had old slow ben wallace and he never had a 7′ 6.16″ wingspan
Biyombo appears to be Ben Wallace 2.0. We’ve already seen what that looks like on offense with him and Andy on the floor at the same time. Wallace was pretty beastly in his prime (against a fairly weak Eastern Conf), but I don’t know how well a player like that would do against the likes of Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum.
I am 100% sold on getting Biyombo i would even use the 4 pick to get him.
DEFENCE!!DEFENCE!!DEFENCE!!
4 for 6+18 sounds great, unless Toronto nabs Valanciunas! I just want to plead with Grant and Gilbert: PLEASE DO NOT LET SHORT TERM CONSIDERATIONS HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THIS DRAFT. And I agree that the unlikely yet catastrophic prospect of Kanter sitting out in a lockout should far outweigh the likely yet totally okay possibility of Valanciunas developing in Europe for a year. Correct me if I’m wrong, but if staying a year is mandated in his buyout agreement, that’s probably a trade-off for making it very easy for him to leave after that, right? (Thus making a Ricky… Read more »
Apparently, according to the guys at WFNY, the Cavs are talking with Washington now about moving the 4 for the 6 and 18. That would allow the Cavs to still get Valanciunas and then also get the extra mid-round pick.
I’d love that.
Big-V staying a year in Europe might be a blessing in disguise. If the NBA gets locked out for next season, Jonas would be over in Europe getting playing minutes, while a guy like Kanter would be back in moth-balls for yet another year. In 2012, Ilguaskas would also be out of contract in Miami, and could possibly be brought back as the perfect coach/mentor for Big-V as he starts his NBA career.
@Alex – It was actually 15 boards a game. Even better…
Sashaaaaaaaa, come out and plaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyYYYYYYYYYYY
@Hoops: I believe you mean Josh Smith, shot-blocking extraordinaire, not Joe Smith “and his exploding knees”. That looks like a great trade, but if the NBA goes to a harder cap, that might scare the Cavs away. On another note, Brandon Knight is a good player but nowhere near the level of Kyrie Irving. He’s much more inefficient than Irving on offense and doesn’t have any true PG skills to speak of, and just about every advanced statistic supports that claim. Volume shooting PGs are great players off the bench, but not players you want leading your team night in… Read more »
there is nothing, no evidence at all, to suggest that brandon knight is a better basketball player than kyrie irving. nor is there anything to suggest a higher upside.
i want Irving. after that, i just want someone that could be a help on an 04 Pistons type championship team, because thats the only way i see the Cavs getting to the promised land
The cavs would be idiots to not draft Williams at #1 and Knight at #4. Irving will be just another over rated Duke player. The Cavs will satisfy their need for a beastly 3 spot and still have Knight around at pick #4, who is just as good if not better than Kyrie Irving.
How about the #4 & Ramon Sessions to the Wizards for #6 and #18? Clears out our back court, gives the Wiz a good backup combo guard, and gives us two picks. Valanciunas and Tobias Harris anyone?
So the Hawks are reportedly shopping Joe Smith for a veteran in the last year of his contract. Would you trade inneficiency and no defense, for inneficiency and lots of defense?
As for Valanciunas, I agree with you, because IMO Kanter’s a workout warrior stiff. I actually like the fact he has buyout problems (I don’t know why this is “news.” This was widely known for the past year.) Draft Kanter, and then offer to trade him to the Wizards or the Bobcats who have picks in the lottery and the late teens if “Big V” slides back there.
I disagree about Jonas completely. I think many people make the mistake with Euro players of assuming their size and skills will translate to the NBA because they look good on paper. History shows that is not the case. Kanter will also struggle with the NBA. With the 4 pick I would take a player who can focus on defense and rebounding. Rebounding is the one skill that can translate right away. I’m not sure who that would be but I would make sure they were a good defensive player since offense can be found much easier.
I agree with Sam. I could see benefits to “no-buyout” Jonas over “with buyout” Jonas. In a lockout, Valanciunas can continue developing in competitive basketball games. He will be even more ready for the NBA when he does come over in 2012. Also the Cavs have 13 players under contract for 2011-2012. Not that some aren’t replaceable, but the Cavs will need to buy a couple of players out if they draft 4 players that they want on next year’s roster.
So I take it you will not be taking Valanciunas in the Basketball Jones mock draft? I suppose attempting to predict what the Cavs will actually do is your role in the event, but I would respect the risky pick for 2012-13 (assuming the world doesn’t end that December) I agree on doubts about Kanter, think about the Lopez twins. Would you rather have Brook as a centerpiece or Robin as a rotation big/6th man? I take the useful defensive center over the non-transcendent offensive center. Plus rebounding is important. I heard that once, I think Hollinger even has stats… Read more »
It would be great if they could somehow trade the 4 to Washington, who loves Kanter, for the 6 and and 18. Draft Jonas at 6 and the best available wing at 18.
Totally agree with the limited downside to stashing Jonas for a year. Also, if god forbid the NBA locks out next year, that means Kanter could potentially go 2 full years without playing organized basketball. That seems to be a deal breaker on him for me
Awesome post, Krolik. The potshot at Jamison was hilarious, as your potshots at Jamison always are. If Jamison ends up getting traded, I still hope to see a few of those scattered through your game recaps, in memoriam.
This blog is so bias against Kanter and so pro-Jonas they can’t write well balanced reasoned stories. Kanter > Jonas. You’ll all see.
Another option could be to find a team picking 9 – 12 that likes Kanter. Trade #4 for their pick plus another asset. I like Alec Burks as a value in this range. The Cavs could start rebuilding around a backcourt of Kyrie Irving, Alec Burks and Jimmy Butler. Add a shooter off the bench and that’s the start of something. Again I really like Valanciunas, as after a year playing professionaly in Europe we know what he can do. At 19 though, I’ve gathered that his defense is still somewhat of a project. With experience, he should be able… Read more »
John, I agree with you that the Cavs should still draft Valanciunas. Regarding Kanter’s defense though, the DX comment you reference is from high school basketball games against what DX calls “poor competition”. I’ve listed several other reviews of Kanter (by DX) through the years where they like his defense. The issue with Kanter for me is that there is little known about him, so it’s impossible to know exactly what you’re getting. Following the Nike Hoop Summit, DX said: “Kanter had some excellent possessions in practice, coming up with some blocks by being a step ahead of the play… Read more »
I’ve kind of fallen for Jonas too, and am sooo hoping that Chad Ford was making an assumption with the ‘that nixes him at 4’ statement. I’m thinking of sending a tweet to Dan Gilbert telling him that we’ll be patient.