5-on-5: Push To The End Edition

Let’s face it: the Cavs haven’t been the most fun team to follow this year. Now that they are no longer must watch TV though, we here at the blog have all been watching a bit more of the NBA as a whole. We may not be witnessing the Greatness of J.R. Smith tossing soup at people, but we can still watch Anthony Davis and Rich Paul try to talk their way out of situations that demanding a trade to a highly specific team creates. There’s about 25 games left till the playoffs, come check out what the Cavs:The Blog team has to say about the rest of the season.

1. What team in the East improved the most at the trade deadline? Did they do enough to beat whoever comes out of the West?

Mallory Factor: This is the question I’ve struggled the most with since the deadline. Initially, I was firmly in the Toronto camp (I mean…Marc friggin’ Gasol!  And now Lin too!).  That being said, I think Tobias Harris is the perfect fit for the lack-of-three-point-shooting 76ers. The dude compliments every other piece so nicely that in the long-term there’s no question he’s going to be the part we all look back at with approval. He’s going to re-sign and be a part of that team for a long time.  Next to Embiid and Simmons, Harris works way too well.

That being said, we’re all overlooking the Bucks who ALSO added a long four who can kind of defend, hit 3s, and switch on defense.  Giannis obviously gives Milwaukee the ability to get a ton of different looks on the court, and Mirotic is versatile enough to fit into all schemes nicely.  He’s been underrated for a while, and he’ll prove to be a nice answer there. The conundrum is that this is all massive speculation: any of these three teams can and should be considered to make it out of the East. That’s how firm of an upgrade each team’s acquisition was. But beating a five all-star lineup?  Nope.  Not going to happen.

David Wood: It has to be the Raptors. A lot of the media around the league has been doubting the Marc Gasol trade saying that the best lineup for the Raptors is when they play a small group with Serge Ibaka at the five. Those people are missing the point. Gasol is the smallest of the hulking centers. He can step out and hit a 3-ball. He can roll to the rack. He can run the offense from the elbows. And, he’s a smart enough defender that no matter who he switches on the outcome won’t be too bad. He knows how to bounce off a small guy and back to a big without creating a window for an offense.

The Raptors have a chance against whoever comes out of the West. On top of Gasol adding a big’s size to smaller lineups, he could anchor an ultra physical group. If the Raptors get crazy and play Kyle Lowry,  Pascal Siakam, Kawhi Leonard, and Ibaka with Marc, that’s really scary. Those guys are long, quick, and could eliminate almost all shots at the rim. Also, what do you do if you’re the Warriors and Gasol is playing twenty feet off Green anchoring the paint ? Launch 3s with mostly all 6’6” plus guys running you off the line? It could work, but as everyone knows: if you live by the 3, you die by the 3.

Nate Smith: My gut tells me the Sixers, and not for the reasons you think. Yes, Tobias Harris is good. He’s a good rebounder who can play both forward spots, and he posts an dRPM around zero. Add in my boy, Der Kinderlumper (Boban Marjanovic) and his dRPM of 2.29, Mike Scott, Jonathan Simmons, and James Ennis III, and this team has a never ending supply of wings that can switch most positions and who can shoot (if Jonathan Simmons gets his shot back – no guarantee). Base a bench lineup around the super energy of McConnell, or the unstoppable size of Boban, and this team can come at you in waves. Oh, and that starting lineup is deadly, and they have so many wings. I just think they’re the deepest team in the East… and the best dancers.

Did we just become best friends?

New Sixers Tobias Harris and Boban Marjanović

Dance sessions 🤣

Philly will love these guys#HereTheyCome
🎥 @tobias31 pic.twitter.com/2vkEIMZsQV

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) February 6, 2019

Evil Genius: The popular pick here might be the Sixers and their splashy deal for Tobias Harris, but I’m going to give the nod to the Raptors and the dimension Marc Gasol will add to their already experienced mix of playoff tested vets. The big Spaniard is a terrific complement to Serge Ibaka at the five (or even allows him some time at the four), and provides the kind of floor spacing Jonas Valanciunas never could. After Vic Oladipo went down, Toronto became my favorite to emerge from the East… and the Gasol pick up only bolsters that vibe. But, no… barring a major injury in the Bay Area, nobody in the East will take more than a game off the reigning champs in June.

Justin May: I’m going to go with the Raptors here. I think Gasol fits in a lot better with Toronto than Harris does in Philly. The big man is going to give them an inside threat they didn’t have and one they will need going against the Warriors. It’s been proven that bruising up the Dubs is a good way to take them out. Gasol was on all of those Grind House teams that gave the Warriors fits. The Raptors are set up to be a much better version and stand the best chance to pull off an upset.

2. Where does Anthony Davis end up this summer? The Lakers don’t seem like they have enough to give for him and Davis has essentially said he won’t re-sign if he lands in Boston. And, oh yea, Kyrie Irving, might not even be staying in Boston to be a Davis co-star.

Justin: My guess is that he does end up in LA. Did Dell Demps get fired because he turned down that godfather offer from the Lakers? I don’t know. It just seems destined. I mean, LeBron always gets what he wants, and he has made it clear he’s willing to sell out any non-Klutch player on his road to getting it. Hopefully the Celtics trade away Tatum and Kyrie still leaves for the Knicks.

David: I honestly have no idea where he lands, but I’m leaning towards it not being Boston or LA. Boston has the assets to trade, but it’s too risky. Davis can’t lead a team by himself so the Celtics are out of luck if Irving leaves, and Davis won’t go there if he isn’t sure Kyrie is going to stay. It’s a sorta catch-22 at this point. Kyrie has made it that way with his non-committal attitude. And, the Lakers just don’t have the assets for him.

If Davis is serious about winning, he should force his way to Denver. See the trade below. Pairing himself with Nikola Jokic would guarantee some deep runs. On top of that, New Orleans would get a solid player in Gary Harris, a solid prospect in Michael Porter, and a little filler with Juan Hernangomez. There’d also be some picks included. And, if the Pellies are worried about a lack of veteran presence, there’s a way to work Paul Millsap into the trade if Denver picks up his team option for next year.

EG: The answer to this depends on who wins the Draft Lottery. If it’s the Knicks, there’s a decent chance AD winds up in the Big Apple, maybe even with KD or Kyrie. If not, the Celtics with a package of Jayson Tatum and multiple first round picks is the most attractive. I never believe the hype, and that whole “he won’t re-sign in Boston” narrative reeked of smoke screen politics. Even with the Dell Demps ouster (likely more for his inability to build a team around AD than his public sandbagging of Magic in negotiations) it’s doubtful anyone in N.O. has any strong desire to do the Lakers and Klutch any favors, especially in exchange for their dog’s dinner of young non-stars. Personally, I think it would be hilarious if the Pels opted to hang onto AD until next year’s trade deadline… but then again I’m pretty evil.

Nate: Davis ends up in Boston, unless Denver decides they want to wade in. To counter EG, I don’t think there’s any way the Knicks are dumb enough to trade Zion (especially now that Dolan’s entertaining bids for the team), and the Pels aren’t making that trade without him if NY has the first pick. If New York ends up without the first pick (like second through fifth), the Pels have a shot. The interesting thing is that Zion is so good that whoever ends up on a team with Zion (aside from KD) will be taking a back seat to Williamson within two years.

Anyway, I don’t think New Orleans wants to trade AD to anyone in the West, and unless Magic can somehow work a miracle three way deal, Davis isn’t ending up on the Lakers. The Clippers might be able to pull it off if they ended up with 2-4 pick (if the Pels really wanted to spike the football on the Lakers), but unless something weird happens (and plenty could) the fix seems to be in for Boston.

Mallory: Davis recently opened up to the idea of re-signing in Boston, so I think they’re still the favorite.  And, like the Kawhi and PG13 situations, I’m hoping that AD being sent to a winner quells his desires. Honestly though, I’m exhausted of Davis and the dynamic shift that’s starting to happen in the NBA. I can’t remember where I read it, but one of the many, many NBA pundits out there had a hot take that I agreed with: essentially, never have we seen a superstar attempt to control his fate so far in advance of his contract expiration.  And, him doing that is wrong for a multitude of reasons.

I get that we’re all addicted to the drama of the NBA. Viewership numbers in the NBA are down, but click numbers on NBA articles are generally strong.  But that’s the issue – we care more about the news than the product on the floor.  That, of course, is in part to the resignation that the Warriors are likely headed to a three-peat.  But it’s also because the players have made it clear to the fans (ya know…the people who ultimately pay their salaries) that leading as a winner means less than taking the easy road.  Durant set the standard and now everyone is following.  The constant game of chess that is NBA player movement has honestly becoming exhausting. I’d love to see some numbers on roster turnover now versus 1990.  I’m guessing it’s higher.

So yeah, where does AD end up?  I’ll say Boston because they have the pieces.  I hope he doesn’t go to LA because I think you’ll see a power dynamic shift unlike anything you’d ever seen before (Lebron getting his way in a way that, frankly, no player should get).  But if he goes there I STILL don’t think they’re an automatic winner. I’d like to see him end up in NYC because 1. I live here and that would be fun and 2. That fanbase is starved.

3. What Cavalier has been the biggest surprise this season.

Mallory: I’ll give one good and one bad.  The good?  It has to be Nance Jr.  I don’t think he’s a star (or even borderline that) and he’s still a pretty bad defender, but initiating the offense through him has been one of the few genuinely enjoyable things about the Cavs this season.  He’s an adequate passer and moves well.  It’s been fun!

For my bad, I’ll say Sexton.  He’s been a disappointment on D and it’s almost pathetic how many mid-range jumpers he chooses to take over 3s (where he’s shooting a very very good 39.2% – seriously, how is he not taking WAY more 3 at that clip?!).

Nate: C’mon, Mal! Nance is a fantastic defender. He just fouls too much. Nance isn’t an adequate passer, he’s a phenomenal passer. He just has to get in a rhythm with the lineups they play. They’ve juggled him with so many players it’s a wonder he doesn’t turn the ball over more. But for me, the leadership has been the most impressive thing he’s shown. Junior gets on Collin when he screws up, and praises him when he plays well. Nance makes his displeasure with bad defense known, and puts guys in the right spot. You can tell his teammates respect him cause he busts his butt. Larry’s a young vet who’s only going to get better.

I don’t consider Cedi a surprise since I knew he could be this good. If his defense gets better (to generate transition opportunities), and he plays with a good point guard, he can be a 22 PPG scorer in this league. Honorable mention? Tristan Thompson’s newfound ability to adequately finish with his junky jump hook. Hopefully, it leads to the ability to move him in the offseason to clear the center spot for Larry long term.

EG: It’s tough to say, since much of the team has been so plagued with injury or traded away. That said, it’s no surprise that Kevin Love has missed 50 games due to injury. It’s no surprise that Collin Sexton struggled for a while as a rookie… or that Cedi Osman struggled by trying to take on too much… or that Jordan Clarkson is a defenseless volume chucker off the bench. I guess in the grand scheme of things, I’ve been most surprised with Tristan Thompson’s ability to not only be highly productive (when healthy), but also a seemingly pretty good team leader. Ask me this question again in April, and I might have to say new addition Marquese Chriss…

Justin: Well, it’s got to be Clarkson, right? Playing with Delly has really done wonders for his game. He definitely still has games where he is jacking up shots left and right, but his game has been much more watchable of late. I mean, he had five whole assists last game. That’s something, right? He’s not averaging any more assists this year than usual (2.4), but he’s improved if you go by the eye test. He’s also no longer forced into the ill-fitting role of point guard. Delly running the second unit allows Clarkson to do pretty much the only thing he knows how to do out there, score.

David: It’s Collin Sexton. After two months of watching him play, I was really worried. He took too many mid-range jumpers and couldn’t get his shot off at the rack. He’s morphing though. Here’s his shot chart through January. 44.4% of his shots came in that dreaded long-2 area, despite the fact that he’s a rather good 3-point shooter.

Here’s his shot chart for 2019.

He has cut his mid-range jumpers down by 17%! And, he’s shooting more 3s and making more of them. Aside from his shot distribution, he has recently shown that he has a Westbrook-esque ability to simply grab a rebound on a miss or make and gun it down the court for an easy basket. He’s probably a top ten fastest guy with the ball already! And, he’s played every game so far this season. That’s rare for a rookie.

4. Seeing as we’re a Cavs Blog, we have to touch on the LeBron James’ situation. Did James finish off his career as a playoff relevant player by going to the Lakers?

Nate Smith: Unless James gets hurt again, the Lakers will make the playoffs as the seventh seed. LeBron will find a way to add a shooter off the scrap heap, and build up the team he was tearing down. They should go get the Jimmer from China. James could even make the second round in the seventh seed. Everyone will forget he’s the GPSJ (greatest player since Jordan) but James aint beating the Dubs. Bron didn’t finish off his career, but I expect if the Lakers do not add serious pieces in the offseason, James will quietly ask for a trade, and a team like Miami might give the Lakers one. We haven’t heard the last of LBJ. This season will leave a bad taste in his mouth.

David Wood: LeBron isn’t making another Finals during his career. He may not even make it out of the first round. And, that’s all because he wanted to go to the West and thought he wouldn’t age more. In the West, LeBron can’t take nights off. If he’s LeCoasting too much, his team isn’t making the playoffs. If he gets injured for too long, his team probably misses the playoffs. And, his team doesn’t have the assets necessary to do any upgrades. They have players that are decent, but no one is good enough to pair with another guy to swing big in a trade without gutting the team. If he had stayed with the Cavs, he probably would have made the Finals again. Heck, they could have even tried to swing a Kevin Love, Collin Sexton, picks, and Tristan Thompson for an Anthony Davis and salary dump trade. Love is better than anyone the Lakers currently have. Sexton has more upside than anyone on the Lakers.

Justin: Yes. The first feeling I had the moment I heard the news was that LeBron had waved the white flag. Sure, he might speak to the contrary on a regular basis but does anyone who is actually being honest with themselves believe that the Lakers represented the best strictly basketball move out there? My guess is no. The funny thing is, it’s pretty clear he hates losing and is grating against that reality already. Who knows, maybe he really did have more faith that the Lakers would draw other big name talent. For James and his crew to make the playoffs, he’s going to need to kick it into gear immediately and he won’t be able to rest at all in the back half of the season. He might squeak in, but he’s not going to have enough left in the tank to perform the same playoff heroics he has the past four seasons.

Mallory: TBA here – I won’t rule the Lakers out of the playoffs because the Kings are young and the Clips will eventually fade, but I think Lebron screwed his legacy over mightily by going to LA.  For one thing, failing to make the playoffs in a market like Los Angeles would be an absolute catastrophe.  LA fans are notoriously unforgiving, and jumping ship from the shallow East to the deep West will be seen as a mistake.

The biggest issue is Lebron went to one of the biggest media markets and tried to orchestrate things behind the scenes in the same we he’d done it in Cleveland and Miami.  The thing is, LA is neither as loving (in Cleveland’s case) or uninterested (in Miami’s) to overlook his brattiness.  And, doing it on such a big stage and FAILING exposed Lebron’s workings in a way they’d never been before.  What happened to all that conversation about letting the Lakers develop their talent over time?  It was lie, duh, and I think none of us were shocked by that.  But the rest of the world?  They’re starting to see the franchise-killer that Lebron can be. But we all know going to LA wasn’t about life DURING basketball, which, you know, makes me think the decision is legacy-killing all the more.  After all, Lebron James is, first and foremost, a basketball player.

EG: Relevant is a difficult word to quantify in this instance. On many levels, LeBron has been and will continue to be the most relevant NBA player this side of Michael Jordan. If you’re going solely by his results on the court, it’s simply too early to tell. We’ve all witnessed first hand what LBJ is capable of achieving… even against all odds (2016), or with replacement level assistance (2015, 2018). It’s hard to count him out, or even bet against him if the playoffs are in sight because he’s transcendent in the postseason. Here’s a contrived conspiracy theory to mull though: LeBron, realizing his best scenario this season is an eight seed and a first round sweep at the hands of the Warriors, shuts it down in March citing his not fully healed groin. Behind the scenes, he helps convince KD to leave GS for either the Lakers or the Knicks, weakening the Dubs enough to take one last two year run at the Finals, possibly even winning one more ring to become the first player ever to help lead three different franchises to a championship.

5. What team in the West can give the Warriors a real challenge in the playoffs?

EG: Honestly, none of them. Golden State could easily go 16-0 in the postseason this year… further fueling KD’s departure. 2020 should be a fun year in the NBA.

Mal: Gah, no one.  I love love LOVE this Nuggets team, and I could see a Kings team stealing a game or two based purely on young energy and excitement.  But, let’s be honest – the Warriors are (and should be) the massive favorites to once again coast to a championship.  There’s really not that much to say; even when they’re coasting, they’re still, on a night-to-night basis, way way wayyyyy better than everyone else.

Justin: You know what? I don’t think the Warriors biggest challengers this year are even out West at all. The East has some real bruisers at the top and it’s going to be tough for the Warriors to face whoever it is coming out of the East. That being said, it’s probably still the Rockets. I’d love for the Nuggets to get their shot, but I don’t think they are quite ready. Denver is another piece away. The Rockets have still have a lot of firepower. We’ll see.

David: Unfortunately, I don’t think anyone out West is taking the Warriors out. Houston is a great team, but they’re mentally weak. James Harden has to prove that he can do what’s he’s doing now, in the playoffs. Or, against a long locked in Kevin Durant or Andre Igoudoula. I’d say Denver, but they’re too young still and need just little more talent or a solid veteran to overcome that fact. It’s going to be a team with a physically imposing big man that can flex the Warrior’s defense and give them a hard time. Then again, they did add Boogie.

Nate: If the Nuggets or Rockets can take a couple games off them, and wear them down, then the Sixers can get them. The Raptors are too fractured with Kawhi looking like he’s got his bags packed, and the Bucks don’t have enough clutch shooting. Jimmy Butler will get inside the Warrior psyches and start tearing this team apart from the inside, pitting KD against his teammates. Joel Embiid will take it as a personal challenge against Cousins, and they’ll run huge lineups where they single out Curry and abuse him over and over. But I don’t trust the Sixers’ youth or Brett Brown against Steve Kerr. The Dubs also have the SGPSJ (second greatest player since Jordan) in Steph Curry, who can beat you from 40 feet in. The Sixers can win, but it will take a LeBronian effort to do it. I don’t know if they have that in them yet.