Southwest Division Preview

Southwest Division Preview

2018-09-19 Off By JMay

[Editor’s Note: This is the fourth installment of our annual six part series of division previews. If you missed you the Pacific Division , the Northwest Division, or Southeast Division previews, click away on the links provided above.]

Dallas Mavericks

Additions: Ryan Broekhoff (free agent), Devin Harris (free agent), DeAndre Jordan (free agent), Ding Yanyuhang (free agent), Luka Doncic (drafted No. 3), Jalen Brunson (drafted No. 33), Ray Spalding (drafted No. 56), Kostas Antetokounmpo (drafted No. 60)

Subtractions: Kyle Collinsworth (waived), Seth Curry (Trail Blazers), Yogi Ferrell (Kings), Terry Larrier (waived), Doug McDermott (Pacers), Johnathan Motley (traded to the Clippers), Nerlens Noel (Thunder), Chinanu Onuaku (waived)

Outlook: The Dallas Mavericks had one of the splashier off-seasons in the NBA this year. They started things off hot when they were able to trade up to the number three pick in the draft and select the heralded Euro-Star, Luka Doncic. The Mavs followed that up with the signing of their previously pursued desired center, DeAndre Jordan. With the big man finally on the roster and the hopeful Doncic looking to take the league by storm, the Mavs suddenly have a reason to look past the ending of the Dirk era.

The Mavs now have a back court featuring Dennis Smith Jr., one of last year’s rookie standouts, and Doncic. They also feature Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, and the aforementioned Jordan. Things are beginning to look up for Mark Cuban and the gang after several years of middling to bad teams in the twilight of Nowitzki’s career. Though the pride and joy of Dallas still remains on the roster, his role has been increasingly diminished as he has aged. Now, the Mavs have an opportunity to send Dirk off on a positive note, if not necessarily a particularly high one. The Western Conference is, after all, an utter blood bath, making it unlikely that the Mavs will snatch a playoff spot.

Nonetheless, I’m sure Dirk would prefer to go out while ushering in the next generation of Maverick’s basketball. He can now do so while grooming his possible Euro successor. Doncic will get the opportunity to learn from the best player to ever come out of Europe and it can only mean good things for his young career. And while CtB’s EG has taken on the role of resident contrarian when discussing the rookie PG’s future success, it seems pretty unanimous that his career will be long and prolific.

What success looks like: I’m sure the Mavs would love to make the playoffs. Truly, if they were in the East, they might actually have a shot. Unfortunately, Dallas will have to fight through Golden State, Houston, San Antonio, Utah, Portland, Denver, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, New Orleans and both LA teams. Seriously, the entire Northwest Division could make the playoffs. That’s a tall order and one I doubt comes to fruition. A far more likely version of success would be Luka Doncic winning rookie of the year and showing how foolish it was for Atlanta to trade down and for no other teams to make a pass at the young guy. This version of success leaves no doubt as to who the next face of Dallas’s franchise will be and the Mavs can continue to build around their new cornerstone.

Cavalier theft targets: The Mavs have a glut of point guards. With the additions of Doncic and Brunson, Dallas now features a roster of four point guards. And while J.J. Barea is of no interest, maybe Dallas will look to move one of Brunson or Dennis Smith Jr. upon finding out that Luka is the real deal. I’d love for the Cavs to pick up one of those two to provide some assurances in case Sexton doesn’t work out. Short of that, maybe the Cavs can look to grab Matthews’s expiring contract for a playoff push if the opportunity is right.

Preseason Grade: P. As in, it did not take any particularly Prescient front office to see that Luka Doncic has the Potential to be quite special. And while I don’t think that adding Jordan really does much for Dallas one way or the other, Doncic’s addition makes it a Possibility that the Mavs have a new cornerstone to build around.

Houston Rockets

Additions: Carmelo Anthony (free agent), Michael Carter-Williams (free agent), Marquese Chriss (trade with the Suns), James Ennis III (free agent), Brandon Knight (Suns), Vincent Edwards (drafted No. 52), Isaiah Hartenstein (drafted No. 43 in 2017)

Subtractions: Ryan Anderson (traded to the Suns), Trevor Ariza (traded to the Suns), Luc Mbah a Moute (Clippers), Aaron Jackson (waived), De’Antony Melton (traded to the Suns)

Outlook: Well, things just got a whole lot more entertaining in Houston. And while they Rockets might be more entertaining from the outside looking in, it seems unlikely they will actually be better. Anthony hasn’t looked like a piece that can make his team better since he played for the Denver Nuggets. His addition is like that of a new character being added to Days of Our Lives. Sure, things just got interesting, but does it really improve the quality of the show?

Yes, he will finally get to play with another member of the beloved Banana Boat Crew in buddy Chris Paul. Yes, Houston was able to resign breakout star Clint Capela. Yes, they were able to get out from under Ryan Anderson’s horrible contract. But they also lost some key pieces from last year’s team. Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute were absolutely cornerstones to the success Houston saw. Both were rangy wing defenders who could hit the three at a decent clip. Those two allowed them to match up with Golden State defensively in a way only maybe Utah could match. The difference is that Houston’s offense was electric in a way the Jazz could never replicate.

Sure, Michael Carter-Williams is a good defender. But the guy just cannot shoot. In his five years as an NBA player, MCW has never shot better than 27% from three. For a team that relies on high-variance and three point makes, a player who can’t shoot but plays on the perimeter doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. It will be hard for Houston to match last season’s success, especially with CP3 a year older. I doubt even James “The Golden Turd” Harden will be able to lift this team to last year’s heights.

What success looks like: Anything short of the Western Conference Finals is failure. And truly, Houston’s got championship aspirations, I’m sure. However, short of a miracle, I don’t know if a single team in the NBA has anything near what the Dubs can put on the court. In my mind, if they are able to replicate last season’s success and avoid exploding on the launching pad, that has to be considered success this season considering no team with ‘Melo has looked better after adding him in quite some time. It didn’t work out in Denver, it didn’t work out in NYC, and it didn’t work out in OKC. What makes Houston think they’ll be any different?

Cavalier theft targets: I’m not really intrigued by any of Houston’s “get-able” players. Really, I would have loved giving MCW a look last season when we were in desperate need of perimeter defense. I could look past his inability to shoot if it meant finally having another competent defender at the guard position. This season, I don’t think he’s worth the effort. However, if the Cavs can unload some of their glut to take him off their hands, I’d strongly consider it. Maybe Houston wants to give JR a chance with his old buddy ‘Melo? After all, they might need a bit more shooting after dumping Anderson and losing Ariza and Mbah a Moute.

Preseason Grade: C because Daryl Morey must be Crazy if he thinks Anthony can still Contribute to a Championship.

Memphis Grizzlies

Additions: Kyle Anderson (free agent), Omri Casspi (free agent), Shelvin Mack (free agent), Garrett Temple (trade with the Kings), Jaren Jackson Jr. (drafted No. 4), Jevon Carter (drafted No. 32)

SubtractionsDeyonta Davis (traded to the Kings), Tyreke Evans (Pacers), Dakari Johnson (waived), Omari Johnson (waived), Jarell Martin (traded to the Magic), Ben McLemore (traded to the Kings)

Outlook: Not much has changed in the Grind City except maybe a few healthier players? Unfortunately, one of those players is Mike Conley, whom I’ve always loved but can never stay healthy. Conley is, in my opinion, one of the most underappreciated point guards in a guard heavy league. He’s just always managed to get hurt at the most inopportune times and does so pretty frequently. I suppose a healthy and happy Marc Gasol is still a formidable player but the 33 year old big man is no longer a spring chicken and it’s begun to show. Though he’s slowing down, the addition of his three point shooting the past two seasons could serve to prolong his career.

Ultimately, for the same reason the Mavericks will have trouble breaking into the playoff picture, so too will the Grizz. There is just too much competition out west and the likes of Omri Casspi, Kyle Anderson, Chandler Parsons, and Mario Chalmers just aren’t going to be enough. Jaren Jackson Jr. has some growing to do as an NBA player before he’s capable of carrying a heavy load for Memphis and they let Tyreke Evans, one of their surprising standouts from last season, walk for nothing.

What success looks like: Conley finally manages to stay healthy for a full season and without a playoff push, gets a nice long summer to continue that streak of good health. Gasol stays happy without Fizdale as his coach. Jaren Jackson Jr. progresses towards becoming the newest addition in a long line of successful Grizzly big men. If they are able to move one of their aging vets for more picks, that will be icing on the cake.

Cavalier theft targets: Maybe Andrew Harrison? The 23 year old guard is a long 6-6 and averaged 9.5 points and 3.2 assists last season while shooting 33% from three. Maybe if the Grizzlies need to get out from under some contracts, the Cavs can help them and take Harrison as payment. At this point, I’d rather give him a look than waste any more minutes on JR Smith.

Preseason Grade: D because it was pretty Doltish to let Evans walk for nothing when he had plenty of mid season suitors willing to part with a few assets. Maybe if they’d traded Evans they’d have been bad enough to jump into the top three and have a shot at Doncic.

New Orleans Pelicans

Additions: Garlon Green (free agent), Darius Morris (free agent), Jahlil Okafor (free agent), Elfrid Payton (free agent), Julius Randle (free agent), Kenrich Williams (free agent), Tony Carr (drafted No. 51)

Subtractions: DeMarcus Cousins (Warriors), DeAndre Liggins (waived), Rajon Rondo (Lakers)

Outlook: Things are starting to look pretty grim for the Pelicans. Rumors have already started that Anthony Davis is going to be looking elsewhere at the end of this contract. And who can blame him? The Brow will be entering his seventh season with New Orleans and in those six previous seasons, Davis has only truly seen one major signing or trade, that of DeMarcus Cousins. From the outset, it wasn’t clear that that was even a good move, considering Cousins’s mercurial attitude and propensity to anger quickly on the court. Nonetheless, Cousins performed pretty well when on the court for the Pels, as he averaged 25.2 points per game and 12.9 rebounds per game in 2017-18. I’d say that’s a good bit better than “pretty well”. Unfortunately, his tenure was cut short by injury and then he up and decided to align himself with the Dark Side and join the Warriors.

Now, Davis is looking at a roster that is lackluster, at best. None of their signings over the summer are really anywhere close to difference makers. Rondo seemed to be making a comeback, at least in the playoffs, but he opted to try his luck out in LA with ‘Bron. Julius Randle is a nice young player but he’s not what they need. Nor is Elfrid Payton and his Gumby hair. The Western Conference is deeper than ever, and that’s saying a lot as it’s largely been the better conference for the past decade. I just don’t see how this iteration of the Pelicans can amount to much of anything, even with Anthony Davis. You’ve got to start wondering when it’s going to be time for the Pelicans to start fresh.

What success looks like: I don’t even know what success looks like for the Pelicans anymore. Maybe success turns out to be that a few of these acquired young guys have breakout seasons that give a ray of hope to the front office in their attempts to resign Davis in the future. Maybe success is finally deciding it’s time to give up on the Anthony Davis era and trade him for a monster package of future firsts or a new corner stone all-star. Either way, they can’t keep treading water because eventually, Davis is going to want a shot at more.

Cavalier theft targets: In the event the Cavs choose to move on from Kevin Love (I hope they don’t) Mirotic is a nice young piece that the Cavs could go after if the Pelicans seem to be floundering. I’d love to pair Davis and Love together in Cleveland but if New Orleans goes that route, other teams will be able to present more enticing packages. Jrue Holiday’s $25.9M contract is way too much for my liking, and the rest of the roster is basically filler. Too bad Emeka Okafor never turned out to be anything…

Preseason Grade: No letter grade, just groans from the front office. The Pelicans did not do well this off-season.

San Antonio Spurs

Additions: Marco Belinelli (free agent), Dante Cunningham (free agent), DeMar DeRozan (trade with the Raptors), Jakob Poeltl (trade with the Raptors), Quincy Pondexter (free agent), Lonnie Walker IV (drafted No. 18), Chimezie Metu (drafted No. 49)

Subtractions: Kyle Anderson (Grizzlies), Danny Green (traded to the Raptors), Kawhi Leonard (traded to the Raptors), Tony Parker (Hornets), Brandon Paul (waived)

Outlook: A lot has changed in San Antonio. No one is left from their previous triumvirate of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. Duncan and Ginobili are retired, Parker joined the Hornets, and the presumed crown prince of Alamo City has been traded to the Great White North. Pau Gasol is still around but he is long past being the all-star of his youth. Still, things just don’t get cloudy in San Antonio the way they do here in North East Ohio.

The Spurs were able to reload on the star front with DeMar DeRozan. Even though I have never been a fan of DeRozan’s game, I’m excited to see what he can become under Pop’s tutelage. He’s still only 29 and has got a few more years of athleticism left. His game should be able to adapt and improve within San Antonio’s system. They also added a young center in Jakob Poeltl and I have no doubts that he’s going to look great on the Spurs. They’ve still got LaMarcus Aldridge, even though his presence hasn’t led to much success, he might benefit from the fresh blood DeRozan represents.

No matter what, the Spurs seem to always surprise everyone around the League. Just when you think this is the year San Antonio will be bad, Pop’s got them sitting squarely in the race for the playoffs. I would imagine this is another one of those instances.

What success looks like: DeMar DeRozan integrates and adjusts flawlessly to the new system oriented team. His play pairs beautifully with Aldridge and the Spurs have no trouble slipping in to one of the late seeds in the playoffs. From there, they give one of the top four seeds a run for their money, yet again surprising everyone around.

Cavalier theft targets: I’ve always like Patty Mills. If things implode, however unlikely, maybe San Antonio will give him up so the Cavs can have another experienced PG for a playoff push. Other than that, maybe Belinelli doesn’t work out and the Cavs can get him for cheap to give them another shooter in the event the Cavaliers aren’t themselves tanking.

Preseason Grade: E for Entirely Expected. I absolutely Expected San Antonio to get a better deal for Leonard than the Cavs got for Kyrie, and they certainly did. I also Expect they will perform Entirely well without Kawhi. It’s the Spurs.

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