5-on-5: 2018 NBA Finals Edition

The Cleveland Cavaliers survived the Boston Celtics in a contentious seven game series to make it to their fourth straight NBA Finals. Oh, and that would be LeBron’s eighth straight, if you’re counting. The accomplishment, especially with this roster and this set of coaches and this front office, is one of LeBron’s greatest accomplishments as an athlete. The Herculean effort it took for him to will this team to the Finals could very well be one of LeBron’s Twelve Labors bestowed upon him in order to achieve basketball immortality. I know that this playoff run will, at the very least, be solidly cemented within the memories of every Cavs fan to flick on the TV over the past eight weeks.

Unfortunately, what lies ahead of James and his band of merry men may very well prove to be insurmountable. The West Coast plague known as the Golden State Warriors looms ahead in the mist covered future battlegrounds of Oracle Arena (appropriate for the Hercules metaphor, right?) and Quicken Loans Arena. To help us make sense of the challenge that we’ve been awaiting since October, Cavs: the Blog brings you a 5-on-5 to discuss some of the major story lines going into the 2018 NBA Finals.

How many games do the Cavs take from the Warriors? Do they have a shot at stealing the championship?

JMay: I think, unfortunately, there is just too much going against LeBron in this fourth iteration of the Cavs v Dubs. Not only does LeBron have one of his weakest supporting casts ever, but he’s often having to actively overcome a baffling coaching staff, loads and loads of minutes, a complete and utter collapse of three point shooting, and bonehead plays by any number of role players. Not to mention that the Warriors still have four All-Stars, two former MVPs, and a ball-movement, pass-happy play style that gives the Cavaliers defense fits. I think the Cavs will be lucky to steal two games.

Eli: The Cleveland Cavaliers reached the NBA Finals for the fourth straight year due to the greatness and excellence of LeBron James. As much as we can hope for a championship, considering that last season we saw a better Cleveland team with Kyrie Irving fall in five games, it would be very hard to convince one to believe this iteration of the Cavs could do much better. LeBron in that series averaged a triple-double and was still fairly efficient. As a fan, my heart wants to believe the Cavs can overcome and beat the odds one more time with LeBron James but my head tells me it’s a task too great to steal the championship.

Right Down Euclid: Gun to my head I say 1 but as a fan I’d say 30% of the time we win every time and we go on to win in 7. The story lines are just too juicy for the universe to allow a mundane gentleman’s sweep and no one outside the Bay Area wants to see it. Meanwhile if the Cavs win, LeBron is indisputably vaulted into a neck and neck race for GOAT status. Also, I’m not a conspiracy guy but it definitely would behoove the NBA to officiate this in the good guy’s favor. A 2-2 rivalry record over 4 years and an icon approaching folkloric status at the height of his powers is a far better situation for the league than having a team that will run the tables for the foreseeable future due to a 1-time salary cap glitch.

The Cavs have a chance if they can take a page out of Boston’s book and commit to stifling defense and ratchet down to a pace slower than molasses in January. We really have no excuse not to know every single one of the Warriors’ plays and tendencies at this point, whereas the Cavs are both a new team and generally an enigma to everyone involved. If LeBron can control the pace of the game like he did in the 4th quarter Sunday night against Boston and we can limit Warrior run-outs then anything is possible.

EvilGenius: They absolutely have a shot at stealing the championship… provided a few things break their way. All the groundwork is laid already though. Zero chance given to Cavs by the pundits? Check. Against all odds mentality? Check. An intermittently sloppy, disengaged, overconfident Dubs squad? Check. Apex LeBron in effect? Check. Key injury to primary LeBron stopper? Check. Cavs playing free and easy with house money? To be determined. Nobody outside of Cleveland will probably give the Cavs more than one game… but, I think they take three of the first six… and anything can happen in a Game 7.

Nate: “Steal!?” Who’s trying to “Steal” anything? Win, yes. Steal, no. Nothing is given. Everything is earned. On paper, this might look like a walk for the Dubs, but games aren’t played on paper, and this Dubs team is the laziest and shallowest of the last four years. Further, their best LeBron stopper is hurt. The Cavs can play deep and at the very least force a game seven. And we know then that anything is possible.

Who will be each team’s biggest “X-Factor”?

JMay: The biggest X-Factor for the Cavs will be George Hill. His defense is going to be very key in slowing down Curry. If the Cavs can eliminate Curry’s influence on the game when he explodes for more than 4 or 5 three pointers, they’ve got a chance. Hill’s long arms should be enough to give Curry pause and if he can stay physical, Steph should have a difficult time getting buckets.

For the Warriors, Klay Thompson will be their biggest X-Factor. That is, if you can consider a player of his caliber an X-Factor still. Draymond will be taking a lot of the post defenders, the Cavs wanted to sign Jeff Green to help answer “who guards KD?”, not to mention the time LeBron will spend on him. Curry will take Hill. But if JR can’t follow Klay around the court all series long, his shooting ability is going to cripple the Cavs defense and open the court for the Warriors.

Eli: The Cavaliers’ biggest X-Factor will be… Jeff Green. As much as we lamented some of the questionable choices and inability to consistently knock down open three pointers, Green’s impact will be on the defensive end where I suspect he will be tasked with guarding Kevin Durant for very long stretches. If the Warriors are determined to play Looney (if Iguodala remains out), the Cavs can counter by using Love at center, Green to guard KD, and LeBron could start out guarding Draymond Green. “Jeff is my guy” and perhaps all those minutes LeBron and Lue played him were to prep Mr. Green to help defend the Warriors to the best of the Cavs’ ability.

For the Warriors, besides Iguodala’s health, the X-Factor will be Nick Young. A streaky shooter who played a lot due to the Igudala injury, Young could potentially see a good amount of minutes in bench-centric units to give the Warriors spacing and shooting.

RDE: The obvious answers are Iggy for the Warriors and George Hill for the Cavs. But at this point Iguodola is much more of a nuisance than anything close to a LeBron-stopper and his on/off doesn’t show much of a disparity in the playoffs. He does still lead the NBA in making his elbows nearly touch when complaining about calls. Hill is more of a W-factor (as in the letter before X or win-factor) meaning if we can’t get ECF home game George Hill averaging 15 points a game throughout the series, then we will get swept.

The sad fact on this Warriors team is that Kevin Durant is actually their X-Factor. In games 4-6, The Front-Running Cupcake averaged 26 points on 36% shooting and the Warriors went 1-2. When the front running starts and he’s hitting 30 per and 50%+ then it almost becomes mathematically impossible to stop them.

On the flip side, the Cavs XX factors are our 2-headed 2 guard JR and Kyle Korver. The Cavs are 7-1 when JR scores in double digits in these playoffs and 5-5 when he doesn’t. Korver, meanwhile, can be a one man Warrior’s team when he knocks down in two 3’s in a row but has had some conspicuous dry spells at key moments going to last years Finals. Honestly, I think KK’s legacy is a bit on the line in this series and hopefully he’s up to the challenge.

EG: If we’re not picking from the All Stars on each team, the biggest X-Factor for the Dubs could be Jordan Bell. Why are you picking a rookie contributor, EG? Well, given the lingering leg injury to Andre Iguodala, Golden State will need all hands on deck to try slowing down LeBron James. Sure, they’ll use Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and probably even a bit of Klay Thompson for the job, those guys will need to conserve some energy for the offensive side of things as well. Enter Bell, who has been sneakily effective for the Warriors in the post-season as a physical defender. For the Cavs, it’s fair to say it might just be a rogue’s gallery of X-Factors depending on the night. My best guess is that if Kyle Korver can rise up and knock down the open shots he couldn’t in last year’s Finals, that could be the difference in a game or two.

Nate:  Ty Lue is definitely the X-factor, but is he an X-Factor, as in the reformation of early X-Men: Cyclops, Jean Gray, Angel, Beast, and Iceman? No, he’s definitly more like X-Force: the band of misfit mutants that Deadpool recruits in his latest sequel. Is he Domino, the girl who creates random events of good luck all around her? Probably not. Is he Zeitgeist, the acidic vomit spewing mutie? Doubtful. Bedlam? Badass played by Terry Crews? Um, no. Is he Vanisher? The invisible man who you’re never quite sure is actually there or not? There’s a distinct possibility. But no. Sadly, Lue is Peter, an ordinary guy who just thought the ad for X-Force looked cool. In Reynold’s perfect deadpan, Wade Wilson exclaims “you’re in!” when Peter applies.

It’s immediately apparent that Peter is completely out of his element, much like Ty Lue has been most of this playoffs. As Ben has noted, he has, at times, not even approached the knowledge level of an average NBA fan in his coaching ability. If Ty gets his powers and figures out how to play his best lineups, then the Cavs have a shot. If we see Rodney Hood and Jordan Clarkson over Cedi, then they’re toast.

Remember when Mike D’Antoni played Ryan Anderson in Game 7, and the Warriors torched it for like four straight possessions? Ty has to stay out of those situations, and make adjustments immediately if he finds himself in one. He almost got burned with Clarkson and Nance in Game 7 against the Celtics. Fortunately he veered quickly. If Ty learns to make adjustments and walk away from certain match-ups when they’re doomed, then he’ll survive.

Which match-up will be the most interesting to watch?

JMay: Of course all eyes will be on James and Durant but I think this is the year the Love shows out against Green. Kevin has had the past two games off as he is in the concussion protocol. He’s also sat out previous games this playoff run. If he is healthy, he should have rested legs and strength to go against Draymond whom he’s seen get the better of him in three straight playoffs. Love’s shot will need to be on from outside and he can’t shy away from contact in the post but his much improved and often overlooked defense on Draymond will hopefully be a difference maker.

Eli: LeBron vs. Durant is the default answer because Durant will want to guard LeBron. However, I’m intrigued to see how George Hill will try to guard Steph Curry. Sure, he’s older and not quite as athletic as he used to be, but Hill has an extremely long wingspan and will relish the opportunity of being in the NBA Finals. If George Hill can bother Steph enough to force the offense to flow more with Durant, that is one way the Cavs can try to trick GSW into playing a different brand of basketball than what they’ve done for most of the season.

RDE: I’d love to see LeBron embarrass Draymond but I think Hill on Steph will be the most critical assignment for us. If Hill can stick to Curry and make his life miserable and the Cavs can tackle Durant with a mix of Green, LeBron, TT, and Nance then that’s our best chance.

Kerr versus Lue is another interesting one to watch as well. Both have a history of not making adjustments quickly enough and Lue definitely out coached Kerr in 2016. As much as we grouse about him, Ty has generally bumbled his way to success when it mattered. He’s stubborn but I do generally think there’s more to him than meets the eye and he is a bit of an X-Factor for us as well if he can properly manage minutes between Love, TT, Green, and Nance, which will not be an easy task.

EG: I usually get a headache watching most of the Warriors play basketball. That said, I do like watching LeBron and KD square off in isolation. So much of the burden for the Cavs rests on LBJ’s shoulders, and so little of the Warriors rests on KD’s, but they’re still the two best players on the planet. KD got the best of LeBron last year… but even with the added responsibility I expect LBJ to turn the tables a bit this year.

Nate: I’m going with my favorite match-up, to pick who should start. Few people play Klay Thompson as well as Kyle Korver. Kyle plays lock-and-trail D as well as anyone in the NBA, and navigates screens well, probably because he’s a master of using them. I’d start Kyle because he defends Klay much better than JR. Klay rarely isolates, and if they go that route, then sure, play Smith. Otherwise, just play Kyle and watch him guard a version of himself 10 years younger.

Will this be LeBron’s best Finals performance regardless of the outcome?

JMay: As good as James has been, I don’t think he’s going to be able to top last year’s triple double. He just doesn’t have enough people consistently making shots to open up his game in the way it does for him to really shine on the offensive end. He also needs to conserve a lot of energy on the court because he’s likely going to sit for less than a dozen minutes over the course of the entire series. That means less effectiveness on the defensive end. It’s all good though, he’s already proven to us and everyone else that he has put everything he has into this Cavaliers team.

Eli: LeBron averaged a triple-double in the last Finals and the Cavs still lost. Since the meltdown against Dallas, no one can say with truth that LeBron didn’t perform in the Finals. I fully expect LeBron to show up and probably continue to at least average 34-9-9 like he has this postseason but it still will likely not be enough. Like James has said this year, he has nothing left to prove to the world but maybe he has one more challenge to himself this season that he hopes to overcome.

RDE: I don’t know. For the first time in eight seasons LeBron is heading into the finals without a true wing man. He’s played 742 minutes so far this post season. In the previous three seasons he averaged 540 with Kyrie alongside him for almost all of them. At the same time, I think we’re starting to take him for granted in the sense that everyone just expects him to keep doing this. Mental fatigue is just as big of an issue as there’s very few people in this world with the types of expectations on them on a nightly basis as LeBron. I can see him potentially having an iconic shot or 2 but it would be tough for him to top what he’s done in years past.

EG: Yes, primarily because he’s a more complete player than he was in each of the previous Finals. He did it all in 2015 (no disrespect to Delly intended), once Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving went down, but it was at the cost of efficiency. He was a monster in 2016, but had an equally devastating sidekick in KI sharing the ball. As great as he was in 2017, the performance had a fatalistic overtone with his comments going into those Finals. This year, he has transformed himself into Destroyer of Worlds LeBron… making the impossible somehow possible.

Nate: Yes. Bron’s risen to the occasion at every level this year, and his teammates have given him just enough to overcome. James has mastered controlling pace and using it to his advantage. He knows when to conserve energy, when to slow it down, when to burst, when to drop a game, and when to turn on the jets. Look at the way he slowed down the Boston game and then drove in the nail with two transition buckets: one for himself, and one for Hill. James is averaging the most points since Jordan in a playoffs, and aside from the turnovers, playing the best ball of his career. He will take what Golden State gives him and devise the best plan for defeating it.

What’s the most important thing for the Cavs to do to win the Finals?

JMay: The most important thing for the Cavaliers to do to win the Finals is to make the open shots. There might not be many of them in this series and if they toss up as many bricks as they did against Boston, they won’t have enough offense to combat the fully operational Death Star that is the Warriors. Or are they a Star-Killer now? Golden State won’t offer the same rookie “yips” that the Celtics did and they will need every easy bucket they can get to win this one. If they can maintain the defensive intensity they’ve shown over the past three series and hit their shots then that will be as good as shot as any for the King to take down the reigning champs.

Eli: For the Cavs to win the Finals, they’re going to have to play defense like they did in Game 7 of the ECF. Let the Warriors shoot only contested shots and get a little lucky on a few misses. LeBron is going to go super-nova but he’s going to have to help get the Cavs in position to score in waves of quantity (I.E. Korver/Smith/Green/Hill all score 10+ consistently). Maybe the Warriors overlook the Cavs too because no one is giving Cleveland a chance.

RDE: Playing inspired defense while taking care of the ball will be critical, but the absolute most important thing is making a decent showing in at least four 3rd quarters. It feels like a disaster in the making that the Cavs typical worst quarter is basically when the Warriors win games. But actually, over the course of these playoffs, we’ve won the 3rd quarter by 6 points. We’ve played Boston even and smoked Toronto. Meanwhile, the Warriors are +127 in their playoff 3rd quarters. Given how cocky these Warriors are, we can probably win 1-2 games just by coming out and smacking them in the face in a couple of third quarters. However, if we continually let them win the 3rd quarter by 10+ points, this series will be over faster than Larry Nance Jr. can get his 3rd foul.

EG: I’ll quote the great Gregg Popovich here and just say… “turnovers.” Quite simply, the Cavs need to take care of the ball on their end… while forcing the Dubs (who frequently play way too fast and loose for even Steve Kerr’s taste) into hemorrhaging possessions. It’s still going to take a Herculean effort by LeBron and his supporting cast actually making a decent amount of their open looks… but if they can fundamentally control the turnover differential, that could be the baseline to the most improbable upset in NBA Finals history.

Nate: The Cavs have no room for error. They have to realize that and cannot waste a game, a quarter, a run, or even a possession. There is no room for Ty experimenting with crappy players like Rodney Hood and Jordan Clarkson. There is no room for Ty, conversely, exhausting the King.  There is no room for repeated defensive mistakes. There is no room for LeBron throwing lazy turnovers. As hard as the Indy and Boston series were, this will be harder. The Cavs have to value the ball, play smart, and play hard. This means lineups that make sense (Cedi as 7th-8th man), and balanced offense and defense in all lineups. This means LeBron and George Hill have to take care of the ball every game. This means they can’t lose Curry on screens, or let Durant get going. The Cavs have to know this, play with with the confidence that they’re going to execute at this level, and get it done. They can. Will they?