5-On-5: Post All Star Break Edition

Johnny 5 is alive! And, so are the Cavaliers as they head into the “second half” of the season. The trade deadline shakeup hit this team like a proverbial lightning bolt, infusing them suddenly with a new level of sentience and basketball IQ. Not unlike Johnny 5 though, with essentially a new Cavs 5 to incorporate (if you include Cedi), the team is a veritable blank slate that is just starting to learn about itself in the larger world of the NBA. They’ve also got limited time (just 26 more games) to figure things out before the opposition comes in force to try and shut them down in the playoffs. Hopefully, like Johnny 5, the Cavs can evade the competition and short circuit their attempts to capture their Eastern Conference crown… or their best player in the off-season.

Our own team of five, Mike, Eli, Cory, Tom and EG, take on five burning questions on the heels of the All Star Break. They tackle the impact of the seismic deals, which addition can help the most, evaluate how Koby Altman did, consider any other additional pieces and speculate on the future plans of the Chosen 1.

What a great time to be alive again Cavs fans!

The trade deadline deals have seemingly improved the Cavs already… what’s their ceiling?

Mike: I’m going to say that the Cavaliers finish with one more win than last season at 52-30. That would have them going 18-8 the rest of the way, which would be impressive, but not absurd for this team. The schedule lightens up as March goes on, and the Cavaliers certainly have enough talent to win 69% of their games from here on out. A bit of a regression after the first two games for the new-look Cavs is to be expected, but that should be followed up with a sustained high level of play at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs. While it wouldn’t shock me if the Cavaliers caught the Celtics for the second spot in the Eastern Conference, staying in the third seed is the most likely outcome. As far as their ceiling in the playoffs, the Cavaliers can outlast the Raptors in the East, but would likely need an injury to a key opposing player to be able to take down the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals.

Eli: The Cavs have won three games technically since the deadline with game one against the Hawks being a prime example of addition by subtraction. While the Cavs have good momentum for a post All Star game run, coupled with a relatively easy remainder of schedule, they should look to improve their playoff seeding. Currently, the Cavs sit at 34-22 with 26 games remaining. While only two games back of the Boston Celtics and the tiebreaker, it’ll be an arduous task to catch the Toronto Raptors who are 6.5 games ahead in the standings. The team will likely try their best to incorporate the new guys and bring back “fall guy” Kevin Love sooner rather than later. I predict the Cavs will win at least 19 games out of 26, giving them a record of 53-29 and second place in the Eastern Conference standings. For LeBron, the number one seed doesn’t matter as he has won road playoff games in every series he has played essentially except for the Finals. However, with LeBron being motivated and hopefully challenging himself, the Cavs will try to set a goal to win as many of their 26 games and enter the playoffs strongly. Also, this is likely the year that LeBron hits his goal of 82 games played.

Cory: Our deja vu back to the 2009 will continue as LeBron will reprise the role of his first tour of Cleveland as the maestro of the hardwood. His stat lines will mirror those of Russell Westbrook’s MVP or bust season, but they won’t be gaudy as the Cavs will play winning cohesive basketball. LBJ will dictate the offense, and his supporting cast will play their roles, and shut their mouths. The difference being that this cast is deeper, younger, more athletic, and will have a vastly superior second option in Kevin Love once he returns from his hand injury. The Cavs will finish strong to nurture their growing chemistry rather than shut it down for their final five games as they have the past few seasons. They’ll go a league best 20-6 the rest of the way to finish the season 54-28, good for the second seed in the East behind the Raptors. For the fourth consecutive year, there will be basketball in June at the corner of Ontario and Huron. I see their chances in the Finals the same way I did last year. If the Warriors are healthy, and don’t fall victim to the disease of me, the Warriors will probably win in six games. If a key Warrior gets nicked up, or the Rockets come out of the West, the Cavs will win another title.

Tom: Their ceiling is probably an NBA championship this year. In a vacuum, Nance Jr., Hill, and actually playing Cedi give the Cavs the length and defensive tenacity to move to the middle of the pack on that end of the floor. But this isn’t about vacuums, it’s about fit. The Cavs have the right personnel to switch everything against the Warriors, Rockets, Thunder, Celtics, and Raptors. And they’ve got enough 3-point snipers to fill two NBA teams. I expect the Cavs to rise to the occasion in the Eastern Conference against a much improved Celtics/Raptors squad – they might even need to knock off both. Getting past the Warriors (or even Rockets) will be a tall order, as those teams have more firepower at the top and more 2-way players. For the Cavs to break through they will either need guys like Kevin Love, Rodney Hood, and J.R. Smith to add significant value at both ends, or they will need LeBron to have the greatest finals in NBA history (topping even his 2016 Finals). It can happen.

EG: In the span of a week, these trades renovated the Cavs from a drop ceiling to one of the cathedral variety. Prior to the deadline, I was looking forward at the remaining schedule with trepidation… wondering if the Cavs could even make it to 45 wins to hold onto the 6-8 seed. Now, they’d currently be favorites in all but three or four contests until the end of the season. They have 14 home games, compared to 12 on the road… and, while just over half of those remaining (14) are against current playoff teams, only three (Spurs and two with the Raps) are against top three teams in either conference (and all three are at the Q). There are only three back-to-back situations left for the Cavs (and only this week’s vs. Washington and @ Memphis in the next month), so their new younger legs should stay decently rested. All of that to say that it’s not hard to imagine the Cavs catching the Celtics for the two seed… but they might just run out of remaining games to overtake the Raptors (although if they can sweep the last two games against them, who knows?). 20-6 gets them to 54-28, probably snags the two seed and makes them once again the favorites to get back to the Finals… where they give the Dubs all they can handle.

Who’s your favorite new piece? Who will make the biggest impact?

Mike: No disrespect to Larry Nance Jr., who’s a hometown favorite and who I think can be a core piece for years, but I’ve always been a big fan of George Hill. Whether it was with the Spurs, Pacers, or Jazz, he has always seemed to play smart, winning basketball. He’s a terrific outside shooter who can play on or off the ball, and has shown that he can take on a larger role in the offense when necessary. While his defense had slipped significantly this season with the Kings, that’s likely to be expected when you play with an organization that is the NBA equivalent of the Cleveland Browns. Here’s a fun fact, did you know that ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus had rated Hill higher than Kyrie Irving in each of the previous four seasons? It’s not a perfect statistic, but for Hill to be consistently rated so high shows what kind of player he is.

Eli: Of the new players added, Rodney Hood is most likely to make the biggest impact in the long run while Nance will likely do so in the short run as the Cavs are currently short on playable big men. Hood has a smooth jumper and basketball smarts to match, especially on the offensive end. Pre NBA draft lottery in 2014, I was very bullish on Hood, thinking he’d be the perfect wing compliment to Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. Obviously, a different path was forged via ping pong balls, but Hood can likely learn to use his immense physical tools to get better on defense and continue to build on his offensive game. Hood fits very well with the Cavs because he’s low usage and high efficiency but also has defensive potential. In a series of small-ball, Hood has the versatility and size to guard 2-4 which is invaluable in today’s game. The Jazz essentially took some cash and Jae Crowder to do the deal with Cleveland which is odd as Hood has more upside with the caveat being that Hood will seek to get paid.

Cory: That’s honestly a tough one, and you could make a case for any of them. I’m gonna go with Jordan Clarkson. In his Cavaliers debut, he did some things that reminded me of Kyrie in a way. He doesn’t have Kyrie’s ball handling, but he can shimmy his way through the lane. His shoot looks crisp too. The Cavs will use a committee to replace Kyrie’s buckets, and Clarkson can get buckets. He’s hit 39.4% of his catch and shoot threes on the season (Kyrie is at 38.1% btw), and he’ll have more open looks from downtown over the next 26 games than he has over the past four years in LA.

Tom: My favorite new piece is Larry Nance Jr. obviously for nostalgia reasons — I’ve always been a huge Larry Nance fan. But I also fell in love with the idea of Nance Jr. the player after reading the scouting report that Zach Lowe published:

“An executive once told me Nance is one of the only players he has ever seen who is thinking of only one thing every second on the court: What can I do, in this very moment, to help my team win? Nothing else clutters his internal monologue — no ruminating about points, how long it has been since he shot the ball (he’s a little jumper-phobic), or where the party is after the game.”

Finally, Nance Jr’s skills as a screen setter, passer, and dive man give the Cavs a dangerous pick and roll option with LeBron. All that said, George Hill might make the biggest impact even if it’s not obvious. Part of the reason the Cavs lost the will to even try is that they were essentially playing 4 on 5 in the half court since Delly signed with the Bucks. It’s telling how much we appreciated the job Jose Calderon did at the PG spot, which was essentially: he slid his feet and tried. Hill has the length, strength, and intelligence to keep most of the ball handlers in the NBA at bay. The Cavs, if they care to, can now develop defensive schemes and chemistry around the types of disadvantages most teams worry about — how to defend the weak side, how to rotate after a hard closeout, how to trap and recover. Up until now, they’ve essentially foregone anything other than trying to stay with their own man because anything else was essentially futile anyway. My sleeper pick for biggest impact: Cedi Osman. I know he’s not a new piece, but with Crowder gone he may get more minutes and he can have a huge impact if he becomes a reliable corner 3 point shooter.

EG: It’s impossible not to love the idea of another kid from Akron coming home to play for the franchise that has his dad’s number hanging in the rafters. I love everything about that storyline, not to mention everything about Nance Jr.’s game. He’s long, athletic, smart, humble and he hustles on every play. He’s also only scratched the surface of what he become as a dynamic roll and dive man. If Larry can develop a reliable mid-ranger like his pops had… look the hell out. That said, my pick for the most impactful of this new group is the other Laker who came with Nance in the deal. People in L.A. didn’t fully appreciate what Jordan Clarkson did for that team… probably because he was never really heralded as a star like some of their other youngsters. Yet, on many nights, he was the only thing that made the Lakers watchable. The kid can score, both often and in a myriad of ways. Plus, he’s the one new guy who has swagger to burn.

Was there any other player you wished the Cavs had traded for, or did Koby get the job done?

Mike: Koby Altman did as well as anyone could have realistically expected at the trade deadline. His moves made the Cavaliers younger, more athletic, better defensively, and added perimeter shooting. While I’m thrilled with the moves, it’s been reported that the Cavs could’ve gotten DeAndre Jordan for what they gave up to get Clarkson and Nance. If Altman had come away with Jordan, Hill, and Hood, I certainly would’ve been pleased with that as well.

Eli: Koby got the job done but there were still some players I hoped the Cavs had traded for. As the resident trade machine fiend, the Cavs would have made my day if they had gotten Dewayne Dedmon, a 7-foot rim-protecting, corner three point shooting big man. Other than not getting a rim protector at some level, which could still be had via the buyout market, Koby knocked it out of the park by not giving up the Brooklyn pick and changing the locker room dynamics. In a vacuum, the Lakers trade didn’t look great, but that coupled with the George Hill and Rodney Hood deal made the day not only a home run, but a grand slam as the immediate needs and future protections are in place for long years of prosperity for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Cory: I’m pretty happy with the return, but I still wanted a versatile defensive monster like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. I like that the Cavs are out running, and I CAN’T WAIT for Love to return and throw go routes to Hood and Clarkson. But, the only way the Cavs have a realistic shot at beating the Warriors is if they slow things down, and dictate the pace. A guy like MKG might be a black hole on offensive, but so is Tristan. MKG could switch on any member of the Warriors “Death Squad,” or simply smother and neutralize a player like Klay Thompson.

Tom: Koby did his job for sure. I’m impressed and thrilled. But, let’s not forget the real reason the Cavs were able to trade away six players who were barely worth more than expiring contracts and bring back four rotation players (three of which are young) — ownership willing to absorb even more unprecedented salary. There is no other player that was seriously discussed as available that the Cavs missed on. I think DeAndre Jordan would have given the Cavs a higher ceiling at both ends but I’d rather have Nance Jr. C.J. McCollum would have been nice, but I don’t think he was really available. George Hill was the guy I wanted, the Cavs got him — and so much more.

EG: Koby got the job done so thoroughly that I decided to never intentionally misspell his name again. Some people might have considered the first round pick to the Lakers an overpay, but they weren’t giving up Nance without it. I’m thrilled that the DeAndre deal that almost happened (according to the Woj piece) never materialized… mainly because I’d be allergic to having both DJ and TT on the same team (talk about an abundance of one-dimensional fives). I don’t believe the buzz with the Hornets was ever real… so that leaves maybe Dewayne Dedmon as the lone wishful remaining piece. But, honestly, it turned out better than anything I imagined… not just because of who Koby got… but because of who he was able to unload.

What pieces does this team still need to target in the buyout period?

Mike: I don’t know that there’s likely to be any players bought out who would actually have a spot in the Cavaliers’ rotation. A stretch big to replace Channing Frye would be nice, but it’s hard to see a player like that becoming a free agent. The Cavs should focus on finding bench players who understand their role, but could move into the rotation if injuries demanded it. Considering they don’t have to be bought out until March 1st to be playoff-eligible for a new team, I have no idea who these players could be. If they give one of their two open spots to a strong locker room presence like Kendrick Perkins, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. Maybe Perk can’t play anymore, but he’s undoubtedly a great guy for a team’s culture. It could be worse. Derrick Rose and Isaiah Thomas look like they can’t play anymore, and weren’t great in the locker room, but the Cavs still kept them for over half the season. At least Perk can be an enforcer, as we well know.

Eli: The Cavs could still use another wing defender and rim protector. With two spots available, they could fill both needs, but due to the luxury tax the prevailing belief is the Cavs will wait until the very last second to add players to avoid that for as long as possible. Currently, Andrew Bogut and Tony Allen seem to be the most desired players from the fans, and while both are extremely old, both players could bring some value by stabilizing the locker room. The Cavs could also possibly bring Dahntay Jones back, as he has been with the Cavs for the championship runs the past two seasons. Ultimately, the luxury tax money will keep the Cavs from being too active in the buyout market until the very last moments, unless a player like Dewayne Dedmon or Nerlens Noel become available.

Cory: They have more than enough depth, but I’d be interested in Nerlens Noel if he can get a buyout from Dallas. He’s underachieved his entire career, but he’s playing for his future, and the defensive talent that made us drool before the 2013 draft is still in there somewhere. He has the lateral agility to switch onto smaller players, and would instantly become the Cavs’ best rim protector since Ben Wallace. The only downside to signing Noel would be that LeBron could hold the Cavs hostage because Noel is a Klutch client, and he’d get like $18 million per year or something. If given the option of Noel or Tristan long term, I’d rather have Noel, if for no other reasons than he is longer, more athletic, and doesn’t have a miniature version of himself growing inside of a Kardashian.

Tom: The Cavs are 11 deep. And, buyout guys aren’t generally top performing two-way players. But the Cavs would do well to add a defensive specialist and/or enforcer type. I kinda want the Cavs to get Tony Allen just because he’s archetypal and the Cavs are all about archetypes. Also, the Great Grindfather is the best nickname I’ve ever heard. I want to unleash Ohio’s T-Shirt economy on Tony Allen.

EG: Once Kevin Love returns, Ty Lue is already going to struggle to find minutes for everyone he currently has in the rotation… so, it’s unlikely any of the buyout candidates who are looking to play much will even consider the Cavs. I’d love to see them bring in Tony Allen and Kendrick Perkins just to have tough nosed vets who can infuse their nastiness into the DNA of this team’s defense. Plus, it would be hilarious to sick the old Grind Daddy on Steph Curry for a few possessions a game in the Finals.

Were these moves enough to convince LeBron to stay in Cleveland? If not, where does go?

Mike: Who knows, but I’d like to think that they could help LeBron see a future with the Cavs as a more feasible option. Before the trades, James was looking at a Cavaliers roster that was aging, had one other All-Star in Kevin Love, and a pair of first round picks that, if they are used to draft two rookies, would’ve been unlikely to help him in his pursuit of another title. Now he still has the fellow All-Star, plus several other younger players who are just hitting their primes in Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, and Larry Nance Jr. If another All-Star becomes available, the Cavaliers could use the salaries of Hill, J.R. Smith, or Tristan Thompson along with the Brooklyn Nets first-round pick as the beginning of what could be a solid offer to that player’s team. Essentially, the Cavaliers can show James a path to sustained excellence, something that was harder to do before. That certainly can’t hurt when trying to convince him to stay in Cleveland. If James does leave, I’m not sure where he goes. The Lakers don’t have the players to fit around him, he’d be playing in the shadow of so many other greats, and I can’t see him dealing well with Lavar Ball. Houston would have to gut their roster, and he’d have to share the ball with both Chris Paul and James Harden. Either move would also take him out of the weaker Eastern Conference. In the East, the 76ers have an intriguing young core, but it’s hard for me to see James going there. All things being equal, I’d take the Cavaliers over the field when it comes to guessing where James will be next season.

Eli: LeBron doesn’t owe Cleveland anything as he delivered a championship to the city. At the same time, it’d be great to see LeBron end his career in Cleveland as the team is now set up to compete for a long time with young pieces like Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr. and the Brooklyn draft pick. At LeBron’s advanced age, it’s hard to fathom that he could make a legitimate contender of the Lakers in one season by bringing himself and someone like Paul George. LeBron is bigger than a market and doesn’t NEED Los Angeles to be successful as he’s already doing so. Does he have two homes in LA and allegedly checked out a school there? Does it matter? I’d own another home if one of them had the n word spray painted on my gate too because an incident like that is too close for comfort. The moves definitely give the Cavs some flexibility and youth, which the team didn’t have prior to the deadline. From my perspective, it should be enough to keep LeBron in Cleveland to end his career, but if he were to leave, I think he’d want to team up with CP3 somewhere (likely Houston). LeBron knows that legacy is huge for him, and going to the West to potentially not make the Finals or join the team with the best record in the NBA would not give him any favors in the eyes of history. At the end of the day, the Cavs gave their best shot to keep the best player in the world in Cleveland, but he has earned the right to make his choice.

Cory: The truth is that no one knows. Miami didn’t become the favorite in 2010 until a day before The Decision. LeBron’s bigger than basketball BFF Wade flew cross-country with LBJ the day before the “I’m Coming Home” alibi that broke Twitter and Wade didn’t have a clue. No one knows what LeBron will do. I think he stays though. If there was a perfect ready made team for him to join and win another title, I’d be scared. I just don’t see that. The Rockets would have to shed a ton of salary to make it happen, and having three uber ball dominant players just wouldn’t work. It’s not going to be the Lakers. If Kristaps was healthy, and the Knicks had cap room for two max free agents, I’d be worried. They don’t. For all of the garbage that’s spewed about Dan Gilbert, he’s kept his promise to LeBron with his check book. There might be four owners in the league that would openly lose money in exchange for a shot at a title. Gilbert is one of them. For all the reasons page view poachers list that LeBron will leave, there’s more reasons for him to stay.

Tom: The moves did two things: 1) They made the Cavs better now and younger going forward, while keeping the Nets pick. From a talent/future prospects perspective, the Cavs are in a good place. They should be the favorites in the East for the next few years. 2) The Cavs organization hit a home run. It’s no secret LeBron is very difficult to deal with/collaborate with. Gilbert in my opinion had every right to say “screw this guy” and try to reload the team on his own terms. Seriously. Imagine spending a historic amount of money a team, half of which are represented by LeBron’s agency, only to watch LeBron himself essentially throwing games. All while your son is about to undergo life-threatening surgery. Gilbert has a job to do — authorize money to make the team better. He’s done that for over a decade. A lot of people gave LeBron a free pass in 2011 because the thought was “The Cavs were getting kinda old and slow.” My counter was always: “yeah, and Gilbert would have paid out the ass to completely overhaul the team” — you know, exactly what he just did last week. I’m at peace about LeBron and his decision. I recognize him to be the greatest basketball player I’ve ever witnessed. I also know he’s an entitled pain in the ass. There have been so many times over the decade plus where LeBron could make things much easier on the Cavs organization, which, in turn, would translate into better outcomes for the team. He’s valued himself over the health of the team time and time again. If he leaves after this year, I won’t be that surprised because this is who he is. I hope he decides to stay — and I think the Cavs are well positioned to have him getting back to the finals every year.

EG: In all honesty, LeBron must have seen these moves as a huge relief. I have zero doubt that, all things being equal, LeBron would prefer to not leave and to retire as a Cav. Yet, before the trades, all things were not equal because there were ill-fitting, ill-tempered and ill-conceived pieces on the court and in the locker room. Had Altman not pulled the trigger, and Gilbert not endorsed the moves, it would truly have been a death march to an early playoff exit. The Cavs still would have expiring deals and the Nets pick, but sticking around for another season of depression and disappointment would most certainly have been a deterrent to James. He may no longer have a true second star playmaker like Kyrie, and he may still harbor a grudge that the Cavs acquiesced to his trade demands. But, he’s got everything else he could hope for with a team of young, athletic, smart and hungry role players and shooters surrounding him… plus, the means to acquire more with whoever gets drafted using the Nets pick. So, no… I don’t think he goes anywhere… but, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him just exercise his player option for next year to keep the pressure on them. And, anyway, so many of the other scenarios out there for him to go and join make little sense in terms of money, cap space and supporting cast. LeBron never needed to be convinced to stay in Cleveland… he wants to be here. The Cavs just needed to not foolishly drive him away.