Lottery Odds
2011-04-25
From John Bena at Fear the Sword:
1. Minnesota Timberwolves – 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. Cleveland Cavaliers – 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. Toronto Raptors – 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. Washington Wizards – 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. Utah Jazz (via NJ) – 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. Sacramento Kings – 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. Detroit Pistons – 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (via LA Clippers) – 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. Charlotte Bobcats – 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. Milwaukee Bucks – 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
Just a reminder of where the Cavs sit in terms of the lottery odds, since we’re only four weeks away. You know those moments in the playoffs when LeBron would drive, draw three defenders, then kick it out to Mo Williams, who would take aim, rise, and fire, and you—having already watched Mo clank many similar attempts off the rim—would feel a distinct sense of helplessness as the ball hurtled towards the rim? That’s what watching the lottery will be like for me. And if we end up with the 7th and 12th picks, I wouldn’t be surprised if I incredulously exclaim “[Gosh darn it], Mo!”
They should lower the chances for teams like Minnesota and the Clippers who always seem to be up there. How many top picks do those teams have to get before they are good? It’s like they are never punished for drafting horribly.
Not that a top pick is anything that you even want this year…
Remember though, the best would be 1-2… (though I’d rather get 2-3 and let Minnesota take the bust off the board).
Shouldn’t the chances of Utah and Sacramento be (almost) even?
“In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#1990.E2.80.93present:_Weighted_lottery_system
Thanks for that factoid, Scott. I didn’t know how the new lottery system worked, so that’s helpful.
Scott is correct. The worst slot the Cavs would pick at would be 5th with their own pick.
Just thought I’d let you know, you switched Utah and Sacramento. A week or two ago the NBA held a tiebreaker for the 5th spot in the lottery, and Sacramento won.
For the clips pick, the odds are considerably better that it turn out 1-3 than it turn out 10 or 11. Most likely it will be 8, decent chance of 9, small chance of 1-3… very very small chance of 10 or 11.
And yes, lower than 5 or lower than 11 would not be possible. Sort of like Mo’s last second jumper.
My understanding is that the new structure is that the first three picks are determined by the ping pong balls, with the rest done by record. So the worst place the Cavs could pick with their first selection would be 5th (if neither they nor the T-Wolves get one of the top 3 picks). With the Clippers’ selection, the worst this could be would be 11th, which would only be possible if all three of the top 3 picks go to the low-probability teams with seeds 9-14, causing everyone else to get pushed back three spots. So the only possible… Read more »
I’m not sure what my reaction would be if we got the 7th pick. Or the 12th for that matter. Confusion?