5 on 5: 2017 NBA Finals Edition

Which Finals freshman will have the biggest impact on the series?

Eli: For the Cavs, I have to believe its Kyle Korver. Sure he’s a defensive liability against whoever he’s guarding, but his offensive game is so important to the Cavs because his three point ability opens up space for everyone else. Coach Lue probably won’t be able to play Korver heavy minutes, but if he has one of those 5-7 during a stretch, he’ll be a deadly weapon.

Sam: Deron Williams’ ability to play with Kyrie and LeBron makes the offense more potent, and when one of the stars rests he can assume more of the distribution duties. If he can play Shaun Livingston to a draw, the Cavs chances are significantly improved. Also, he’s playing in The Finals, and Chris Paul isn’t…

Nate: Deron Williams has been playing at an elite level the entire playoffs. Let’s talk a 69 TS% and an offensive rating of 130 and a defensive rating of 111 for a net of +19 per 100 possessions. Clearly, playing with LeBron agrees with him. Last season’s playoffs? 71 offensive rating and 126 defensive for a net of -55 per 100. Yikes!

This year, Deron has been put in a position to play some of the best basketball of his career, and the limited minutes he plays is perfect for him. He ensures there’s no dropoff when Kyrie or LeBron are on the bench, at least offensively. Will he fare as well when guarded by Livingston or Iguodala? Perhaps not, but right now you have to give him the benefit of the doubt.

David: Don’t take this as complete fact, but off the top of my head, Deron Williams, Derrick Williams, Kyle Korver, David West, ZaZa Pachulia, and JaVale McGee are the only players in this series that haven’t been to a Finals before. Deron Williams has the best chance to make a huge impact. If he can give LeBron and Kyrie just five minutes a night where they don’t have the ball in their hands, it will be huge, especially if he does it when they’re on the bench. Williams is smart enough to lead a second unit and dictate a pace that keeps the Warriors from racking up points. It helps that he has been very slightly above average in the playoffs. He has a 2.5 to .9 assist to turnover ratio and has gone 50% from behind the arc.

Will there be a Deron Williams and/or Kyle Korver game in the Finals? I think we get a Korver game. Maybe

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Cory: It feels like Kyle “American Eagle” Korver has had a relatively quiet postseason thus far only going for double digits in three contests, but he could have a bigger impact than any of the other Finals freshman. I thoroughly believe that the Bogut injury last season had a bigger impact on the series outcome than Draymond’s suspension. They couldn’t protect the rim anymore, and LeBron and Kyrie ate them alive on penetration. This year, Korver can sit in the corner and wait and let the Warriors pick their poison. Stay home on Korver and the Cavs will feast in the paint. Leave your man to rush the rim, and Korver will make them pay three points at a time.

Which team will have more questions to answer this summer with a Finals loss?

Eli: The Cavs for the simple reason that LeBron isn’t getting any younger. He will turn 33 next December, and a significant retooling would be necessary to keep up with the Warriors. If the Cavs want to make a serious makeover, dealing Love or Kyrie would probably be necessary.

Sam: The narrative all season has been that Golden State were robbed from a repeat last season due to circumstances, and that this seasons title is a forgone conclusion after adding Durant to the best regular season team ever. They have no excuse in this series, and if they don’t win, stars heads could roll. No one outside of Cleveland is giving the Cavs a chance, so if they lose, they will be as a very good team with a transcendent talent who lost to one of the greatest rosters ever built.

David: The Warriors for sure. They went out and got Kevin Durant because they were beat by the Cavs when they were up 3-1. A loss in the Finals would make them realize they can have all the talent in the NBA, but if they have no mental toughness to deal with adversity, it means nothing. The Cavs are a collection of superstars and former superstars. If they lose, it’s already what most of the world expected. Curry is also due for a new contract this summer as well as Durant. The Warriors will have trouble negotiating and shelling out for both of them if they loss their second Finals in two years.

Cory: American social media is funny in the sense people don’t really care if you’re arrogant, as long as you can back it up. Floyd Mayweather is a first ballot A-Hole Hall of Fame member, but he always cashed the checks that his mouth wrote.  The Twitterverse will never, EHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHVER let Warriors fans and players live down another lose to the Cavs in The Finals. The 3-1 jokes aren’t just a Cleveland thing either. There are real life ramifications also with Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green being the only players of their core under contract. I don’t think Durant is a lock to stay there if they lose.

Nate: The Warriors have much more to lose, especially Kevin Durant. If he can’t get it done there, is he so embarrassed he doesn’t go back, or does he have a sense of unfinished business? Cleveland will keep rolling with the same game plan (if CavsDan wants to keep losing money), and despite LeBron being a year older, they have a core of Kyrie, Kev, & TT who are all on reasonable contracts for their production. The worry is their bench. Will guys keep taking minimums to chase a ring if Golden State seems unbeatable? Will the NBA close the buyout loophole? Still the Warriors have put so much ego on the line while the Cavs have quietly put together the greatest bench since the 80s and are a LeBron and Deron flu away from being 12-0 going into the finals. The Cavs can recover from this. Not sure the Dubs can.

What is the most intriguing matchup in the series?

Eli: LeBron versus Durant of course. LeBron has to be dominant for the Cavs to have a chance, while KD is out to prove that his decision was right, and that he can become a champion, and emerge from LeBron’s shadow in the league pecking order. LBJ will likely be transcendent during the series, the question is will the gap between his performance and Durant’s be enough to repeat.

Sam: Though the Kyrie/Steph, and LeBron/Durant matchups battles forged in hoops heaven, from a series impacting standpoint, it’s got to be Love/Green. Green’s combination of facilitating and defensive mastery allows the Warriors to be everything that they are. K-Love was pretty much a no show last year until his gritty performance in game 7. Love has to play like an All NBA forward for the Cavs to have a chance. I’ve never been more confident in Love’s fit with the Cavs following his stellar season and postseason.

Nate: Yeah, the headline guys are fun, but this series might come down to TT versus ZaZa. It’s the only position where the Cavs have a pronounced advantage. Tristan should own Patchouli Oil. The X-Factor will be: how long do the Dubs leave Zaza in? Do they counter with Javale, which should be a fantastic battle, or do they go small and move Dray to the five? Move Dray to the five, and suddenly he can’t be as good of a help defender, and Love has a matchup advantage over whoever they counter with.

David: The best matchup this series is going to be Stephen Curry going against the ruthless Cavalier offense. The Cavs picked on him relentlessly in the Finals. They made sure nearly every action offensively involved him fighting through screens or switching onto a bigger guy. The Warriors now have K.D. to help from the weak side, but Curry will have to figure out a way to survive on some switches. There is only so much straight up help and recover defense Golden State can play without becoming depleted on the other end of the floor.

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Cory: During the 2012 NBA Finals between the Heat and Thunder we all assumed that Durant and LeBron would be an annual June festivity like Father’s Day, or me making fun of people for going to terrible Dave Matthews concerts. Injuries, a frugal owner, and the emergence of the Warriors kept the Thunder from holding up their end of the bargain. Five years later, this is the rematch and these two players have the most on the line. Durant has been in LeBron’s shadow since he entered the league. He left a title contender for their biggest conference rival. If he doesn’t win, he’ll face hard criticism for another year that he doesn’t have championship mettle. LeBron is on a quest to be the only player in the history of the league without a shadow in front of him, and this series is the biggest test of his career. If he beats this team, with Durant, he’s in a class with Jordan, and Jordan alone.

Who is the x factor for each team?

Eli: The x factor for the Cavs is Kevin Love. He played like Minnesota Kevin against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals putting up 22 and 12. If Love can continue his strong play on both ends of the court, it will be a huge addition to the Cavs chances in comparison to his performance in last seasons Finals.

For the Warriors, I’m going with Draymond Green. Green is an elite defender, and he’ll be playing point forward, and even center at times. He’ll look to bully smaller defenders like Richard Jefferson in the paint, and blow by less agile opponents like Love. His goal in the series isn’t victory, but domination.

Sam: J.R. Smith has shown occasional flashes since coming back from back from his thumb injury, but he has yet to reestablish himself as the 3-point release valve that the Cavs need to constantly play at the next level. He’s converting on 45% of his triples, but he’s only attempting four per game. If Smith can hit two or three a game, their chances in the series greatly improve.

For the Warriors, I’m going with Andre Iguadola. If he can hound the Cavs on the perimeter, and convert on his open three point attempts like he did two years ago, the Cavs are in trouble.

Nate: Cleveland’s X-Factor is Kyrie. He’s been up and down this playoffs, and he’ll need to be more up than down. The extended schedule is great for his balky knee, but he needs to play as well as he did for the last three games in 2016 for the whole series, on both ends of the court. For the Warriors, it’s Klay thompson, who hasn’t thrived this playoffs with the lower usage Kevin Durant brings. Klay’s got a 49 TS% and is below 40% on field goals from inside the arc. Suddenly, he’s a guy you can double off of. If Klay gets his form back, the Dubs are a very difficult out. If he doesn’t, then the Cavs have more than a puncher’s chance.

David: LeBron is the King for a reason. He will lead the Cavs. If he isn’t playing amazingly, the Cavs have no chance. Cleveland needs Love and Irving to step up at the right times, but even if those two are succeeding, LeBron needs to be on point to ensure their contributions are able to push the team to that “next” level. On the Warriors, Curry will be the biggest factor. When he’s on fire from deep, it’s very hard to stop him no matter how good the defense is. He will abuse switches. He will swing the ball quickly getting guys open shots with a big on him, or he will get past them to the rack. And, he can just rise up with little to no space. Durant is scary, but I’d take Durant isoing over having to defend an entire team’s Curry enabled motion offense any day.

Cory: Iggy for the Warriors. I’m assuming Kyrie will generally be stashed on Iggy when he’s in the game. This Warriors team isn’t as deep as it was last year. If his gimpy knee gives him trouble going forward, . They would lose their best perimeter defender, and the Cavs wings would be able to run amok.

For the Cavs I’m going with Brampton Ontario’s favorite son Tristian Trevor James Thompson. The Warriors don’t have a lot of chinks in they armor, but rebounding might be their biggest and Thompson’s greatest still. The Warriors switch everything defense is nearly as affective as two years ago, but an offensive rebound and kickout resets the chess board before they can rotate. Thompson is also the x factor because he’s Steph Curry’s Canadian kryptonite.  Curry shot a putrid 9 for 26 in last year’s Finals while Thompson was his primary defender.

What’s your Finals prediction?

Eli: The Warriors scare me. They followed up their 73 win season, and Game 7 narrow loss by adding perhaps the second best player in the league after James. But the Cavs have James, and he’s never been better. This Cavs team prefers being the underdog. They grow from the challenge. The Vegas line for the series has the Warriors as a heavy favorite, and LeBron’s team has been betting underdog in the Finals in six out of his eight appearances. I’m not betting against LeBron James. Cavs in six.

Sam: Cleveland has been better on the road during these playoffs than at home, and I can’t shake the sentiment that this series is going to live up to the hype. There’s no pressure on the Cavs to repeat, and that’s when LeBron is at his most dangerous. The Cavs will slow the series down, as they have the past two Finals, and LeBron and Kyrie will wear the Warriors down. The series is going to be epic. Cavs in seven.

Nate: Cavs in six. Cleveland has been holding back for this series all season, whereas Golden State has been trying to just fit everyone in and adjust to the loss of Luke Walton and Steve Kerr. I’m firmly convinced the Cavs have been saving the Jumbo Lineup/Wildcat Offense for this series and also have a dozen other tricks up their sleeve. As weird as it sounds, Cleveland has more matchup options, because they’re just deeper. Now GS is more athletic than any team they’ve faced, but Cleveland just has more shooters. Everyone on this squad can shoot threes save Tristan. When it boils down to a possession game, Cleveland’s shooters (and, DUH, LeBron James) should make the difference.

The Cavs will jump them in one of the first two games, and the fact that the Cavs have lost a game this postseason already will help Cleveland. It will take longer for the Warriors to mentally recover. The NBA did Cleveland an enormous favor with the schedule too. The only games with just one night off are the two in Cleveland: advantage, Cavs. With at least three days to get ready for every other game, it favors the older team, who just happen to have the greatest player in the universe, gunning to be the greatest of all time.

David: The Cavs came back from being down 3-1. It happened, and the media is going to echo that fact this whole series. If the Warriors get to the point where they have to close out the series, that fact is going to be haunting them. It will be haunting Durant the most. The Warriors had to go and get him, so he better deliver. That’s a ton of pressure. As of right now, the Cavs, well, LeBron, are mentally tougher than Golden State until Golden State shows they’re not. Cavs in seven.

Cory: The Warriors obviously should be favored in the series. They have home court. They have more all-stars. They are out for revenge…But I just can’t get past their first game against the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors got pummeled like Scut Farkus for the first three quarters. Someone finally hit the bully back and they got owned.  The Warriors battled back and narrowly won after injuring the Spurs fulcrum player. If Kawhi doesn’t go down, we aren’t talking about 12-0, but I’m glad that they are 12-0. They are due, and they are going to get punched in the mouth again Thursday night and the two teams will trade blows over the next two weeks. This time, the Cavs will get to have a parade on Father’s Day because they are winning on their own court on June 15th. Cavs in six.