ECF Preview: How To Catch A Leprechaun

Isaiah Thomas may have lost a tooth, but he still has his pot of gold intact. The luck of the Irish continued last night against the Washington Wizards, as the Boston Celtics outlasted John Wall’s bench deficient squad in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference Semi-Finals series. The decisive game was close for most of three quarters until Boston’s #4 leaf clover took over with some help from his man-bunned, arm-tugging sidekick who rode in to save the day on his rainbow unicorn. Yep, our old pal Kelly had a career night, chipping in 26 points to help the Celtics bench press the Wiz reserves 48-5, and (finally) land Boston a chance to take on the Cavs in the Conference Finals starting Wednesday.

The Cavs, for their part, have been hanging out for the last nine days, catching up on rest, recuperation and relaxation. If there is such a thing as too much time off, it’s possible we’ll see the effects of it as this next series kicks off in earnest. After all, Game 1 will be on the road, in the noisy TD Garden against an emotionally charged team who relish their role as underdogs even as the number one seed in the East, while the Cavs haven’t even been allowed to scrimmage this week. It would be understandable, and even somewhat acceptable if the wine & gold were to start off slow, and possibly even drop a game to the scrappy Celtics. Yet, that first game might just be the best chance Boston has to scamper away with a victory to avoid a sweep at the hands of LeBron and company.

With so much time off, it’s easy to forget just how little trouble the Cavs had in sweeping both the Pacers and the Raptors. It’s also easy to forget that both Indiana and Toronto were statistically better defensively than Boston throughout the regular season, and the Cavs had no problems averaging 116 points per game against the C’s while going 3-1 against them. It’s also easy to forget that the last time the Cavs visited Boston, with the number one seed on the line, Cleveland blew their doors off… destroying them 114-91. And, even though the complacent Cavs surrendered that advantage by dropping their last four games of the regular season, it might not be a bad thing to start the ECF on the road. The last time that happened, the Cavs burned their way through Atlanta and finished the Hawks off in a clinching sweep at home. It never hurts to have a superstar who has an ongoing consecutive streak of playoff series with a road victory.

Beyond the luck of the leprechauns, let’s take a closer look at the tangible and intangible matchups in this next round as both teams look for the gold at the end of the rainbow…

The Backcourts

MFQ vs. The King in the Fourth: The similarities between these PGs outweigh their differences. In fact, the primary difference is essentially their stature (Kyrie is 6’3 while IT is just 5’8). Aside from that, their games are fairly comparable. Both are tremendous scorers. Both have a variety of moves to get to the rim. Both can be dead-eye three point shooters. Both excel in fourth quarters. And, of course, both are to some degree liabilities on defense. Kyrie is down a bit on his average from the regular season (23.8 vs. 25.2) and his shot has been off (40% from the field, 28% from three). However, he’s maintained his 5.8 assists per game, and upped his steals from 1.2 to 1.5 per game in the playoffs. His defense has still been rough in the playoffs, but not as bad as you might think. According to ESPN stats and information, Jeff Teague, Paul George and Kyle Lowry were able to score over Kyrie when he was their primary defender (20-of-36 this postseason), but he has held everyone else to a combined 7-of-36 from the field. Thomas has also seen his offensive numbers dip. He’s down from 28.9 ppg in the regular season to 25.4 in the post season. Additionally, his shooting percentage has taken a hit ( 46% vs 44% from the field, and 40% vs 34% from downtown), though he did make 46% from three against the Wiz. IT is also sharing the ball more in the playoffs, dishing out 6.5 assists per game. Defensively, he’s the next best thing to a sieve, although the Celtics have figured out ways to hide him in the first two series.

Bottom Line: Though I’m comparing them for this matchup, odds are there will be few times that they wind up guarding each other. It’s doubtful either could stop the other without help. The key will be which one can generate more offense for their respective teams. Fortunately for Kyrie, he’s got a couple of other guys who can create shots and a multitude of guys who can knock them down. Unfortunately for Isaiah, most of this burden falls on his slight shoulders.

Advantage: Even. IT will probably outscore KI in the series, but only because he’ll have to just to keep the Celtics close in these games. The truth is that Kyrie is just as dynamic of a scorer as Isaiah, and for the first time in the playoffs, will face an even poorer defender. Thomas will probably continue to get some favorable whistles to get to the line, but overall this feels like a wash (which is a victory for the Cavs).

Swish vs. Zero Tolerance: Neither of the starting SGs for these teams had a particularly healthy year, but both are rounding into shape in the playoffs. J.R. Smith didn’t exactly live up to his nickname this season, averaging just 8.6 ppg on some subpar 35% shooting across the boards in just 41 regular season games. However, even though his points are down in the post season (6.4), his shooting has improved to 44% from the field and downtown. He’s shooting less, focusing his attention and efforts more on perimeter defense and helping to shut down opposing stars (Paul George and DeMar DeRozan). Speaking of defense, Avery Bradley has embraced his Zero Tolerance moniker, shutting down Jimmy Butler in the first round and helping thwart John Wall and Bradley Beal in the second. He’s also averaged nearly 16 points a game in providing some support for Thomas in the scoring department. Though he struggled early in the series against the Wizards, he broke out in Game 5 and 6 (29 and 27 points respectively), and has raised his post season three point shooting to 38%.

Bottom Line: J.R. only played in two of the four games against the Celtics in the regular season, and only really had an impact in the last game. Bradley had his ups and downs against the Cavs, but always plays hard nosed defense. Each of these guys will be counted on to up their perimeter game, and it remains to be seen who can be more consistent on both ends.

Advantage: Celtics. It’s very possible J.R. could have a Swish type game, but the Cavs haven’t needed that just yet, and he’s had a checkered past in the Garden (see Jae Crowder). It’s more likely that Bradley makes a bigger impact defensively, and is also called on to make more shots in the series.

The Frontcourts

The King vs. The Beast: As with last year, this seems like a pretty easy one to call… LeBron is at perhaps the pinnacle of his power, and Crowder is… well, he’s got similar hair to last year’s matchup, DeMarre Carroll. As good as LeBron was during the regular season (26.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 8.7 apg, 1.2 spg, .6 bpg, 55% fg, 38% 3pfg), he’s been even better in the playoffs (34.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 7.1 apg, 2.1 spg, 1.5 bpg, 56% fg, 47% 3pfg!). The only reason his assists have been down slightly is due to Kyrie’s uptick in dimes in the series with the Raptors. Most notably, however, is that he’s stuck to his promise of raising the bar on his free throw shooting for the playoffs. He’s gone from 67% in the regular season to 73%, and hit 83% against Toronto. The King has also started to lock in defensively, providing defense where needed in his free safety role. Crowder (or The Beast from the Northeast as some chowds like to call him), like his dreadlocked predecessor (along with PJ Tucker this year), has tried to make a name for himself as a guy who “plays LeBron tough.” He’s also a decent 3 and D player (40% behind the arc during the season), although he’s dropped off a bit from deep in the playoffs (31%). He consistently gives the Celtics about 13 points and six or seven boards a game, and provides them with gritty (if undersized) defense.

Bottom Line: There’s really not much Crowder can do to slow LeBron down, other than just try and stay between him and the hoop and hope he cools off from downtown this series. Meanwhile, LeBron should only continue his high level of playoff excellence, while getting his shooters involved.

Advantage: Cavs. The King should easily banish The Beast as he continues to feast on the East.

Canadian Dynamite vs. The Godfather: “Aw man… you again?” is what you can imagine Al Horford saying when these two meet in the circle for the jump. Has any undersized big man ever owned a finesse big man more than Tristan Thompson has Horford? You wouldn’t blame Al if he banned brooms from his domicile after the last two post-season Cavalier sweeps over his former Hawks. Yet, this might actually be The Godfather’s best opportunity to get a modicum of payback against Canadian Dynamite. TT’s scoring and FG% are both down a bit from the regular season (7.8 and 53% vs. 8.1 and 60%), but his rebounding is up (10.6 vs. 9.2) and his FT shooting is less of a liability (57% vs. 50%). Still, Horford is having a breakout post season, averaging 16 ppg, 7.5 rpg and 5.8 apg, while shooting an incredible 64% from the field and 58% from three. Though the Celtics still usually come up short in the battle of the glass, Horford has helped make them somewhat respectable in the playoffs.

Bottom Line: Ever since he hurt his thumb, TT hasn’t been quite as automatic with his push shot, although he’s still been able to throw down lobs for dunks. He’s also still playing some terrific defense, and should continue to win the rebounding advantage over Horford. But, if Al continues to shoot well and spread the floor, the Cavs might have to use Channing Frye or smaller lineups with KLove or LeBron at the five.

Advantage: Even. Canadian Dynamite should still explode to give the Cavs extra possessions, but the Godfather won’t be as easy to refuse as he was in Atlanta.

Menace vs. Tall Money: I never knew this before (and I’m still not sure why this is), but apparently the common nickname for Kevin Love at Cavs’ practices is “Menace.” I mean, maybe it’s an inside joke, since there’s very little you might consider menacing about a Banana Republic cover model who chugs chocolate milk. Still, Love will probably live up to his name if the Celtics can’t figure out a way to guard him… provided Kelly Olynyk isn’t busting out his arm bar move again. Kevin’s averages are down from the regular season in points (13.8 vs. 19.0) and rebounds (9.1 vs. 11.1), but his shooting has stayed strong at 43% from the field and 41% from deep. His usage rate wasn’t quite as high in the first two rounds, but that should change in the ECF. His counterpart for the Celtics, Amir Johnson, has essentially become a token starter at this point. Johnson (who earned the nickname “Tall Money” from Drake in his Raptor days) is only averaging 3.1 ppg and 2.1 rpg in just over 11 minutes per game in the post season. While he can provide an additional physical presence, he’ll most likely give way to the likes of Olynyk or Jaylen Brown if the Celtics go small.

Bottom Line: Love’s ability to not only stretch the floor but also pound down low for rebounds and post-moves gives the Cavs a dimension that the Celtics can’t match easily. Expect Johnson to continue to be a token starter, or possibly even get replaced if things look bleak early for Boston. It would take an entire series of Olynyk Game 7 vs. the Wiz performances to counter-balance Love.

Advantage: Cavs. Kevin Love continues to menace the Celtics while avoiding the menace that is Johnson’s long haired replacement.

The Benches

La Flama Blanca, Deep Frye, Shumpman and ThreeWill vs. Dirty Unicorn, The Cobra, The Poet and Hot Chocolate: Both teams have gotten good games and bad ones from their respective benches. The Cavs tend to ride their starters longer than the Celtics, and Boston has a deeper complement of athletic bodies they can throw at the opposition. The Cavs have age and experience on their side, while the Celtics have youth and aggression. Collectively, the Cavs’ bench has shot the lights out from beyond the arc as Channing Frye (55%), Kyle Korver (49%), Deron Williams (60%) and Iman Shumpert (40%) have all been hot. The Celtics’ bench has also shot well, though not quite as well, with Olynyk (35%), Marcus Smart (39%), Gerald Green (41%) and Terry Rozier (44%) all above average. Only Jaylen Brown (22%) has struggled.

Bottom Line: While both benches can make a difference in this series, Boston’s has the greater opportunity since they are almost guaranteed to see more minutes on the floor. Given how physical the series could become, it’s a decent bet we may see more of Richard Jefferson and Dahntay Jones in certain spots as well.

Advantage: Even. The shooting of the Cavs’ reserves should balance out the defensive energy of the Celtics. And, while the Boston bench will probably score more, the Cavs’ bench will likely be more efficient.

The Coaches

The Answering Machine vs. The Professor: As a player, Tyronn Lue was known as “The Answering Machine” because he was able to shut down Allen Iverson. Nowadays, it’s because of the answers he has to come up with not only to stop opposing players, but to defend his team’s sometimes lackadasical performances. His schemes to stop the other team’s best player (PG-13 in round one, DeMar DeRozan in round two), have helped propel the Cavs to yet another perfect playoff record through the first eight games (just like last year). After all the seeping dread of losing games and minutes played down the stretch of the regular season, Lue has the Cavs ready and rested for the ECF. On the opposite sideline, Brad Stevens (yes… this guy!) has finally made good on his anointment by the media as the pre-eminent “basketball genius” of his time. Okay, that’s extreme hyperbole. At least The Professor has finally won a playoff series or two after getting skunked in his first two post seasons. In all fairness, Stevens has done a lot with fairly average talent (outside of IT’s offensive ability), and brought his team back from the brink (down 0-2 to the eighth seed Bulls in round one), channeling their emotions into physical, scrappy play. Hopefully, they don’t injure anyone this round.

Bottom Line: One coach won a title when nobody expected him to… and the other coach hasn’t won much of anything despite high expectations. Brad Stevens is certainly a smart and talented coach, but Ty Lue has shown he knows how to push the right buttons when it matters.

Advantage: Cavs. The Professor has more bodies and emotional tactics, but when it comes to finding answers… Ty Lue is a machine.

The Intangibles

Rest vs. Momentum: The Celtics are coming off a long and hard fought series over the Wizards. Even though they’re the number one seed, they believe the world sees them as perpetual underdogs. They’ve got momentum on their side, having played and won just yesterday, and they have home court advantage. The Cavs have played only eight games in 33 days (as opposed to 13 for the Celtics), and are probably as well-rested and as healthy as any time all year. They exhibited little rust in Game 1 against Toronto, but nine days off might have a negative effect on their sharpness. Still, they’ve shown the ability to come into hostile environments and dominate behind an energetic LeBron.

Advantage: Cavs.

The Arc vs. The Line: The Cavs have been destroying teams from behind the three point arc, but have also cleaned up their issues at the free throw line in the playoffs. The Celtics have also done well from three, but rely on Isaiah Thomas to draw contact and get to the stripe with frequency. According to ESPN Stats and Information, the Cavs have made 55% of their uncontested 3-pointers this postseason, the best in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Celtics defended the 3-pointer well in the last three games against the Wizards, holding them to 27 percent shooting (22-of-82). Overall, as a team the Cavs have made 43.4% of their threes to 37.3% for the Celtics. Both teams have shot 77% from the line.

Advantage: Cavs.

Offense vs. Defense: For as good as the Cavs have been offensively, the Celtics have also shown they can score well (at least at home). The challenge for the Cavs will be finding the open shooters on offense, and keying on Thomas on defense without giving up open shots. As ESPN Stats and Information notes, the Celtics have attempted 73 more uncontested shots than any other team this postseason. They’ve actually been below average making those open looks (57 percent, league average is 58 percent). When the shot is contested, the Celtics make only 40 percent of their tries, which is worst among the four remaining teams. For Boston, they have to continue to be aggressive on defense and play the passing lanes to force turnovers, since they’re almost guaranteed to get out-rebounded by the Cavs.

Advantage: Cavs.

The ‘Land vs. The Garden: Boston has a history of championships on its side, as well as an incredibly loud (borderline obnoxious) fan base when they want to be. But, Cleveland is now also a city of champions, and the Q can get just as loud as the TD Garden.

Advantage: Even.

Prediction

I didn’t predict a sweep for either of the first two rounds, as I thought both Indiana and Toronto had elements that could challenge the Cavs for at least a loss or two. And, even though Paul George went off, and had the Cavs down by 25 in one game, I turned out to be wrong on both counts. In my humble opinion, the Raptors and Wizards both have more talented players than the Celtics, yet the Celtics have played better team basketball (or, at least good enough to get this far). There’s also unknown elements like the officials imposing their will (see Game 4 of round one in 2015), or Emperor Stevens giving Order 66 to his team to start headhunting. Something tells me that either the long layoff could cost the Cavs Game 1, or Boston could rally to take Game 2, but not both. The Cavs will find the secret to trapping the leprechaun, and end the Celtics’ run of luck 4 games to 1 before going for the pot of gold in the Finals.