5-On-5: All Star Break Edition 2017

The first pictured stats selection is from 55 games into last season, and the second picture shows the first 55 games of this season. They’re very similar.  It’s nice to the see the Cavs are actually hitting more 3s and shooting them better this year. The biggest difference this year though is that the team doesn’t play consistently. One night they’ll have 25 assists and the next they’ll have 11. Some nights they blow 17 point leads and others they hold teams to 40% shooting. If the Cavs get healthy and play more consistently, they’re going to be terrifying.

Cory:

Even with the lengthy absence of J.R. Smith, and the recent loss of Kevin Love, the team is in a much better place than they were at last year’s All-Star Weekend. A year ago, LeBron was pining to play with his banana boat friends, presumably elsewhere.  The team was less than a month removed from firing David Blatt, and we were arguing whether Griff could con Danny Ainge into getting Jae Crowder AND Avery Bradley for Love in a trade.

Nate:

The Cavs are the basketball equivalent of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. You cannot measure their current position (in terms of quality of play) and simultaneously measure their direction (whether they’re getting better, worse, etc). That applies to every aspect of their organization and personnel. Will LeBron be cranky this week? Will it mean he’ll be mad or lazy? Is Kyrie trolling the media or does he really think the earth is flat? Will he be shot hunting or assist hunting? Will Shump keep his game simple, or will he overdribble? Are we getting getting gator arms Frye or a rebound, roll, and three maven? By the time you’ve pinned any of these guys down, they’ve already changed direction.

Fortunately, the Cavs use this principle to their advantage and can morph to defeat any defense – when they want to. By the time a team has schemed to defeat their platoon of three point riflemen, they’re throwing lobs to Tristan Thompson. Just when you think they couldn’t defend my Mom, they hold hold the Wolves to 15 in the fourth. So the short answer? Who the hell knows? The Cavs shooting is better, light years better, and that’s without J.R. LeBron can hit threes again. Kyrie’s at 39%. Shump’s at 40%. Everyone rotation guy save Tristan (and arguably Richard Jefferson) can flat out shoot the rock. But with Kevin Love and J.R. Smith still returning from injury, the Cavs struggling to defend, and their inability to fill the void of Timo (hulking big man) and Delly (backup guard who can guard two positions, run the offense, and super-irritate people). They’ll get there, though. The long answer? No. They’re not better. But they will be.

EG:

Better is a hard term to quantify at the moment… primarily due to the various injuries and set backs the Cavs have faced so far this season. As a result, they show intermittent glimpses of being the fully operational battle station… mixed with odd rotational anomalies and defensive inconsistencies. If you break it down, you’d have to say that LeBron is having a statistically better year (in fact maybe one of the best statistical years in terms of efficiency, assist rate and three point shooting of his career), though his usage also seems way up with no backup PG. Kyrie is having a much better year than last year (mostly since he’s not coming off a broken kneecap), and has found a way to tap his inner facilitator more frequently (he’s had more double digit assist games this year than he’s had in the first four years of his career combined). Kevin Love (before the injury) was having his best statistical year to date as a Cav, and deserved his All Star selection. The supporting cast is also better than last year’s. Shump is shooting better, Frye is more effective and Korver is a major upgrade (especially once JR comes back). The one thing that’s worse than last year is the defense, but how much of that is a combination of mid-season malaise, guys being out, and teams giving the reigning champs their best shot nightly? They do also sometimes miss the ballhandling and grit of Delly, but not as much as it seemed like they would. So, yes, I would say when it’s all added up, they are better…

2) With the trade deadline and buyout period approaching, this team needs: a) a playmaker; b) another big; c) all of the above; d) none of the above?

B.  They need another big.  Iron Man Tristan Thompson can’t play 48 minutes a night at C. Kevin Love fills in admirably from time to time but the Cavs need to take his injury history seriously. LeBron doesn’t commit to shutting down power forwards, Channing Frye really can’t defend anyone, and while the Derrick Williams signing was a great pickup, it’s unclear how he’ll fit into the playoff picture. Andrew Bogut swinging a buyout from the Mavericks and signing for the minimum in Cleveland is the best case scenario.  We’ll find out in a few days.

The team doesn’t need anyone else. Finding Derrick Williams was huge for the Cavs. He can play some of LeBron’s minutes when Kyrie is running the show with the second unit, and can fill in when LeBron is given nights off. Keeping LeBron fresh needs to be Tyronn Lue’s number one priority. Kyle Korver was a great pickup too because he knows how to make the right pass, which, again, is something the team needs when the King sits. That’s a boring answer though. I’m actually hoping the Cavs try to get Ben McLemore. There was a three-week stretch where the King’s wing man put up LeBron level numbers. I remember reading an article about it a year or two ago, but I can’t find it now. I’m 90% sure that article existed. Ben has some upside and in the right situation he could hit open shots and push the ball in transition. The fact that Cleveland could lock him up as a restricted free-agent with upside makes him even more intriguing.

It would be great to have both, but I highly doubt that anyone they pick up will play more than a handful of minutes in the playoffs. As much as we all miss Delly for his rescued from a coal mine podium moments during the 2015 playoffs, and Moz for looking like the worlds largest hostage in cable access sports bar commercial, neither of the played much in The Finals, and they played as many minutes in game seven as I did. The injuries to Smith, and Love have made the team look shallow, but once they are all healthy, they will be ten deep and more versatile than last years squad. If I had to pick, I’d want another playmaker more than a big. If I were to make a trade, I’d see how bad Minnesota wants to move Rubio, and how bad Thibs really wants Shump. Rubio’s career has stalled, but perhaps he’s really a third guard on a contender, and not a starter. With the cap explosion the past few seasons, his salary isn’t that bad. His lack of an outside shot is negated by my day dream of him running the pick and roll with LeBron, and them being flanked by Korver, Irving, and Love awaiting an open three. Also, Rubio (0.58) is posting a superior DRPM to Shump (-0.06) this season.

Yes, a guard and a big, mainly for insurance and regular season purposes. The main reason they need a guard, is that they’re two deep on ballhandlers right now and Kyrie and LeBron both start. If the Cavs lose either of them in the playoffs, they’re not repeating regardless. But they would at least be able to survive and have a shot at advancing if they had someone who could fill in for a two week injury. Same goes with the bigs, though the Cavs are a little more likely to be able to survive that. I still say my preferred targets are Shelvin Mack (even though he’s not a great shooter) and Jeff Withey for a future second. I guess Tim Frazier and <insert Pelicans big man here> would work. If they move Shump I want it to be for Rubio or a non-Mozgov big and a guard from the Lakers.

None of the above for the playoffs, because the Cavs already have 10-11 guys that have earned a spot in the post-season rotation… and we know that Ty Lue will ultimately whittle that number down to eight in most critical games. Where they could use all of the above is for active bodies to keep themselves fresh through the brutal month of March and the mostly inconsequential days of early April. The truth is, that there just aren’t a lot of big men out there that the Cavs can afford to trade for… or even pick up in a buy out situation. Sure, I’d love to have Andrew Bogut too, but even if he gets bought out by Dallas, does anyone realistically think the Cavs would be his first choice or that another contender wouldn’t offer him more than just a vet minimum? Better to just pick up a decent D-League banger to absorb extra time. On the playmaker front, there may be more options available with the fallout in Sacto, although my primary preferred target (Tim Frazier) is about to become the starter in NOLA… and his back up could very well be Quinn Cook (sorry NOMAD).

If I had to guess I’d say Kevin Love, if only because he was looking so comfortable at times this season, and J.R. never really settled into a groove even before the mid-December injury. There will be some time to acclimate the sharpshooters back into the fold.  The Cavs may look discombobulated again as they approach the playoffs — but all that matters is that the lightbulb goes on when the real season begins.

J.R. Smith is going to come back stronger because he only hurt his hand, and he has presumably been running and working out to keep an NBA ready body. Love isn’t able to do much with his body until his knee is healed. Unfortunately for the Cavs, Love is the bigger x-factor. Kyle Korver isn’t Smith defensively, but he hit 3s and gets open the way Smith does. No one on the team can do the things Love does offensively. When the team plays Love, James, Irving, and shooters, they just score too much. Love has to be in the all shooting lineup, because he can rebound with bigs and still stretch the floor. No one else does that. And, let’s face the facts. This team needs to score a ton if they hope to repeat.

Smith is my favorite Cav, but it’s Kevin Love for sure. In a way, the Korver acquisition is J.R. Smith insurance. If Smith isn’t playing air guitar after hitting a heat check three, they’ll be okay, because they have three other guys who can do it with less charisma. Injuries are never a good thing, but the Cavs are fortunate that Love should have a few weeks at the end of the season to get back into the swing of things before the playoffs start. As nice as having a consistent scoring option like Love is, they uber need his rebounding.

J.R. comes back stronger. He was probably able to work himself into better cardio shape and work with his left hand. Kev should be ale to sit in a chair and shoot for hours though. Kev is more critical to the Cavs’ chances from a rebounding, scoring, and post play perspective, but they can’t do it without both of them.

I get the sense that Kevin will probably be more disciplined in his approach to getting back into form on his return than J.R. (plus he’s got that Chocolate Milk advantage). It also seems like J.R. got the yellow light from the Cavs to just take his time getting right. It’s entirely possible that they come back within a week or so of each other, although I could see J.R. pushing a little more now that the Cavs are down another man. This might sound crazy, because the Cavs definitely count on Kev’s rebounding, post play and floor stretching ability, but especially in the Finals (if there’s indeed a rubber match with the Dubs) a healthy J.R. Smith is crucial for not only his penchant for hitting contested triples, but also his perimeter defense on guys like Klay Thompson. “The Stop” aside… the Cavs don’t win the Championship without that eight point burst from J.R. to start the second half of Game 7… or his hounding of Klay in that game.

Yeah.  People overthink these things.  He’s the best player in the league.  He would have won Finals MVP if the Cavs had lost a few months back, despite playing in a series with five other All-Stars, including the two-time league MVP.  The Cavs have the 3rd best record in the NBA and he’s the straw that stirs the drink.  Right now I’d give the nod to Harden or Westbrook but I’d put LeBron 3rd.

LeBron isn’t the MVP. He takes too many possessions off on both sides of the floor at this point. He happily talks to refs, instead of playing transition defense 10 times a game. Offensively, he dribbles too much because it takes less effort than running around off the ball and making opposing defenses scramble, which would open up his teammates. I’m all about Russell Westbrook for MVP. He’s putting up a near triple double every night, and he has zero guys on his team that space the floor and make his life any easier offensively. He even locks it down on defense when he’s mad or the game is close. He’s willing the Thunder to a first round exit.

I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that LeBron wins the MVP. Westbrook’s team will probably finish seventh  in a watered down West. Triple-double average or not, guys on seven seeds don’t win the MVP. Harden’s numbers are bananas, but he’s a completely one-way player, and D’Antoni’s offensive system has already awarded a pair of regrettable in retrospect MVP awards to Nash. Curry and Durant will offset one another. Kawhi Leonard is the best two-way candidate, and his personal growth, and the Spurs record in spite of Duncan’s retirement will put him higher in the vote than he’s given credit for now. If LeBron wins his fifth Maurice Podoloff award, it will be because voters remember his domination of The Finals, and his team finished with the best record in the East while missing two of their starters for a decent chunk of the season. Oh yeah, and he’s still throwing up 26/7/8 stat lines that seem pedestrian for him after 14 seasons, but would be a career year for anyone else.

You can’t loaf your way through December and January and be an MVP contender. You just can’t. LeBron spent entire games not guarding anyone. I don’t know. Maybe the other guys do that too. Harden definitely does, but Russ doesn’t, and KD is the Dubs’ second best defender now. I know Kawhi never does. I guess it comes down to which guy is doing the most for his team. If Nash won two MVPs then Harden should definitely win for this year. He won’t though. It’ll be Russ because we use a base ten numbering system due to the fact that we have ten fingers and toes. If we had eight, everyone could average a triple double.

I’ve said this before… but I really wish the NBA would adopt the MLB model of an MVP for each Conference. While I believe that LeBron is absolutely in the running for MVP of the League… he’s unquestionably the MVP of the Eastern Conference. Every other legit candidate resides in the West. And, it’s just as easy to make a case against most of them in favor of LBJ… After all, the Warriors were already a 73 win team before KD showed up, so despite his stats, you could remove him and GS would still be a championship contender (though his presence takes some shine off of Steph). Russ is on the verge of history with his averaged triple double… but for a seventh seed that has no shot at a ring. Harden has the added degree of difficulty of switching positions, yet is the antithesis of a two-way player. In my mind, that leaves LeBron and Kawhi as the two Most Valuable Players to the success of their teams. Both are potential champions with them… and both struggle to make the playoffs without them…

Yes, the Celtics and the Wizards are desperately trying to win every game, and the Cavs’ sense of urgency waxes and wanes.  The Wizards are 21-5 since Christmas.  That’s the best record in the NBA, even better than the Warriors (20-5).  I could easily see either team surpassing the Cavs in the regular season.  I’m actually surprised more people aren’t talking about this.

No. Even with Love out, the Cavs have two stars. The talk of their free fall by some people was not that thought out. The big three are all stars, but most of the time, they aren’t stars at the same time. Love and Irving will go off on a night when James is struggling… Love and James will go off on a night when Irving is struggling… etc. The nights when all three go off are the nights when the Cavs really blow teams away. No team in the East scares me right now. None of them have more than one true star besides the Raptors. It’s easy to scheme for one guy. And, in the case of the Raptors, DeMar DeRozan can go Kobe 81 all he wants. Twos still aren’t worth more than threes, which is why the Cavs will gladly let him shoot away as they make Kyle Lowry’s life somewhat difficult in the playoffs.

I get that Celtics GM Danny Ainge has to feel like he won the trade, but now is the time to make the big move for Jimmy Butler. If Ainge could get Butler for the 2017 Brooklyn pick swap, Marcus Smart, and Amir Johnson’s bloated corpse, it should have been done yesterday. He would still have tons of assets to make other moves, including Brooklyn’s unprotected pick in 2018 (worst trade of all-time). Remember that b.s. proverb “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush?” Jimmy Butler is in his fricking prime, he’s a top 10 talent, and averages $18 million per season over the next two years in a league where Otto Porter is going to make more than him in six months. The thing with draft picks is that you never know. You don’t know if he’s mentally ready to handle pressure (Anthony Bennett). You don’t know if he’s just a tall guy who doesn’t really love basketball (Michael Olowokandi). You don’t know if he can handle the pressure of being a franchise face, and will hit the bottle, rather than rehab (Greg Oden). I don’t want them to do the deal, because it makes the Celtics infinitely scarier, but they really should.

The Cavs could be caught for a top seed. I mean teams don’t put Isaiah Thomas on his a** enough. Toronto with Ibaka could be interesting. They could beat Cleveland for the top seed if they got hot and the Cavs fart around. They’ll never beat Cleveland in the playoffs though, unless the wheels seriously fall off the wagon. The real threat is if Boston decides they want to win now. They could grab Butler and Robin Lopez or Taj, and then they’d be interesting. They have a lot of really tough defensive guards and Marcus Smart is looking like a brute as a starter. They could match the Cavs at most every position, but they wouldn’t have Cleveland’s shooting. They’d be tough and thuggy though. That team would be a great Dubs primer. Though it might take too much out of Cleveland to beat them. Lets hope Danny sits on his piggy bank.

Both the Celtics and the Wizards easily could… and if they do, I’ll assume that it’s because Ty Lue finally decided to get LeBron some rest by sitting him on select back to backs in March and April (there are six of them in the former and two in the latter, so basically one a week for the rest of the regular season). It won’t mean anything, however. I mean, we all saw what happened to the Atlanta Hawks two years ago when they snagged the top seed… straight to the broom closet. Not saying it would be easy to go win in Boston or Washington, but LeBron seems to relish beating teams in their buildings in the playoffs… and nothing chokes the life out of a challenger more than heading to the Q down a game or two to a healthy LBJ led squad.

The thing that drives me up the wall about the Cavs is… when Kay Felder plays with LeBron and the Cavs have him stand in the corner while LeBron handle’s the ball, or even worse, when they have Felder set screens for LeBron. However, I go to my happy place when… they tally at least two dimes for every turnover.  Usually means some prolific long range shooting and a W.

The thing that drives me up the wall about the Cavs is… all of the isolation play. However, I go to my happy place when they… have possessions with less than nine combined dribbles by Irving and James.