5 on 5: Offseason Edition

CLEVELAND, OH – JUNE 22: Cleveland Cavaliers General Manager David Griffin waves at fans during the Cleveland Cavaliers Victory Parade And Rally on June 22, 2016 in downtown Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/NBAE/Getty Images)

If you listen to many NBA beat writers, they’ll tell you that there really is no offseason anymore. The marathon regular season is followed by the marathon postseason, which is immediately followed by the NBA Draft, free agency, and before you know it, training camp is right around the corner. Even your NBA Champion Cleveland Cavaliers will have many decisions to make. Which free agents do they decide to keep? Which do they let go? Are there any trades to be made? Elijah, Cory, Mike, Robert, and Ben took a look at how they might handle some of the decisions facing the Cavaliers over the next few months.

1. Which Cavalier free agent does the team most need to keep? Who should they let walk?

Robert: While he’s not technically a free agent until he declines his player option for 2016-17, LeBron James is expected to opt out and sign another one-and-one deal. Despite the rumors of his imminent departure to Los Angeles, James has stated that he intends to stay in Cleveland making him (duh!) the Cavs biggest priority in free agency. After James, keeping J.R. Smith in a Cavs jersey seems like a no-brainer for GM David Griffin. Now that he’s represented by Klutch Sports, expect negotiations with the Cavs to go the distance — especially since he just got done playing the best all-around ball of his career in 2015-16 — but an engaged Smith fits too well with the rest of this over-the-cap roster to let him get away.

It’s probably incorrect to assume that since Matthew Dellavedova fell completely out of head coach Tyronn Lue‘s rotation by the end of the Finals he’s on his way out the door. Delly played a significant role in the playoffs, he was just abused by Golden State in the Finals. Still, with Kyrie Irving showing that he can actually play a little defense when he wants to, the Cavs stocking up on back-up point guards to groom (Canton Charge guard Quinn Cook and 2016 second rounder Kay Felder are both not without their intrigue), and the luxury of Mo Williams opting in at a low salary, the Cavs might think it most prudent to let Delly walk.

Mike: For most of the year, I would have said Matthew Dellavedova, but now I’d lean towards J.R. Smith. In this era of pace and space, along with teams constantly switching on defense, Smith’s abilty to shoot with high accuracy on a high volume from beyond the arc make him incredibly important to the Cavaliers’ offense. He’s the ultimate pressure release for a team built around a Big Three. He also has the size to guard almost any wing player, which helps LeBron James play more time at power forward. Dellavedova is a very good defender and outside shooter, but he doesn’t have the size or overall shooting ability of Smith. That being said, the Cavaliers should not go into next season with Mo Williams as the primary backup point guard.

As far as the second part goes, I’d let Timofey Mozgov walk. While there’s a good chance Timo bounces back at least a little next season, the rising salary cap means that the Cavaliers would probably have to pay big bucks for a player who would likely be their fourth big man, fifth if you count the time James will spend at power forward. That’s just poor financial planning.

Elijah: Besides LeBron, who committed to coming back next season, I believe the free agent they need to keep most is J.R. Smith.  I know Delly is important as a backup PG and Mozgov provides sizes in the interior, but J.R. was a legitimate two-way player for most of the year.  He has the ability to shoot lights out and also reduces the defense burden on LeBron James greatly.
The Cavs should let Mozgov walk.  Going into next year, the Cavs have TT, Love, Frye, and Kaun under contract and there’s no need to pay the price to keep Mozgov as a 4th big.  Delly will be an interesting case since he is a restricted free agent.  The Cavs may not be interested in paying any large sum of dollars for him.  Dahntay Jones has a non-guaranteed deal so he may get waived for an opportunity at a “better” player.

Cory: They need to keep J.R. Smith the most. Cleveland is his perfect NBA city, and he’s become absolutely beloved by the fans for being himself. He’s going to get paid on a short term deal, and spend his free time signing pipes for the next couple of years.

I’m not against bringing Mozgov back on a small deal. We had great fear last season after the Tristan signing that the team wouldn’t be able to afford Mozzy. I’m assuming he was hurt most of the year physically, and he’s an emotional dude. A $5 million deal for one season is perfect for both sides. We know his potential isn’t what we saw last season.

Ben: J.R. Smith. Swish was crucial on both sides of the ball. His dedication to and implementation of the defensive game plan enabled the Cavaliers to slow down the Splash Brothers. Without his focus, the defense would have crumbled. Offensively, J.R. was the catalyst to the Cavalier three-point barrage post All-Star break, culminating in the layup fest of game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The opponents’ terror of Swish’s hot shooting opened up the floor for everyone around him. Smith mixed in just enough dribble drive game to keep defenses honest. Let’s be clear, Klutch Sports will make sure that LeBron’s highlight alley-oop tandem stays together. I guess that leaves Mozzy as the guy to let walk? We all know that Timofey had a rough season. It cost him millions, but probably not enough to chase away a team in need of a big man. He will still likely cash in for eight figures per year. Letting Mozgov and Mo Williams walk provides a small possibility of retaining Mathew Dellavedova. I doubt it will happen though. As well as Delly played throughout the regular season and most of the postseason, the Cavs seem unlikely to match a big offer sheet for the restricted Wombat. Delly deserves a big contract from a Central Division team. The Pistons or Bucks seem to be more likely destinations than the Land. I will miss him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2roFfhMCX7M

2. If the Cavs were to use the Trade Exception created when Anderson Varejao was dealt to Portland, who do you see as a realistic target for the team?

Robert: I think the trade exception only comes into play if a team in the Kevin Durant sweepstakes thinks it has the inside track and needs to clear a little extra cap space quickly. Remember the flurry of deals the Cavs had to make in order to clear the space to sign James in 2014? Same idea. But with the Cavs unlikely to be first in line to help the Western Conference contenders (the Warriors and Spurs) who already have confirmed meetings with Durant, another team would have to enter the mix in order for the Cavs’ trade exception to be realistically in play.

Mike: There’s a lot of guys out there, and the consensus seems to be that the Cavaliers have a need for a large 3-and-D wing. Wilson Chandler seems like he may be a good fit here. While the Denver Nuggets obviously like Chandler considering the three-year $36 million contract they gave him last fall, there are some reasons to believe he may be available. First off he’s been injury prone throughout his career, playing 72 or more games just three times in ten seasons and missing all of last season with a labral tear in his right hip. The Nuggets are also getting younger, building around players such as Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, and Will Barton.

Still, Chandler is a solid player who can score in transition, defend multiple positions, and is an adequate three-point shooter. With the salary cap spiking, $12 million a year is a fair price for a solid starter or bench player who has a big role. He’s not Trevor Ariza, but considering the Cavaliers trade assets—or lack thereof—Chandler may be a more realistic option.

Elijah: My wish target would be a player like Trevor Ariza or Corey Brewer….  Both are extremely long, play good defense, and shoot threes at an acceptable rate for the most part.  I also believe both are a bit out of the price range of the Cavs.  Jeremy Lamb hasn’t had a good career up to this point, but Charlotte was dangling him with the 22nd overall pick which was probably the most realistic possibility.  Dan Gilbert has shown the willingness to spend on this team and maybe Griffin and the rest of the front office really like someone in the back half of the first round.
Another player of potential interest would be a wing like Ben McLemore as the Cavs were often linked to him last year.  If the Kings are ready to cut ties with him, maybe the Cavs can throw a future 2nd round pick and absorb him.

Cory: With the cap explosion, teams won’t be throwing away talent to duck the luxury tax. The only real tasty possibility is if a team needs to clear cap space for Durant or Horford and they need to dip low enough to give out a max deal. If I’m the Spurs and I can woo Kevin Durant, I’d gladly toss Danny Green away for nothing to make it happen. If I’m the Cavs, I’d gladly take the tax ramifications that would come with his addition. You’d think San Antonio could get a draft pick for him from a team with cap space though, so I’m not holding my breath on that scenario. If they use Andy’s TPE, it will be near the deadline.

Ben: I doubt the Cavs will use it unless an injury forces their hand. All of that changes if Cleveland ends up trading Love in the off-season, but as of now, I don’t see it happening. Still, it is a nice chip to have in your back pocket.

3. Who are some bargain basement free agents the team should be interested in? 

Robert: With the salary cap going up so drastically, I have no idea what a “bargain basement” free agent is going to look like this year. Normally, I’d try to talk myself into Jared Dudley taking the Cavs tax payer exception (approximately $3.5 million according to Real GM), but Jared Dudley’s probably going to get some $10-$15 million offers. The Cavs just don’t get to play in the (free agent) pool this summer. Probably, they end up using what money they do have to spend to give Finals-MUVP (Most Unexpectedly Valuable Player) Richard Jefferson a raise from the veteran’s minimum deal he played on this year.

Mike: When I think of bargain free agents, I think of guys who will likely command somewhere from the tax payer mid-level exception down to a veteran’s minimum contract, but could contribute if called upon. Guys like Brandon Rush, Brandon Bass, Chris Kaman and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute could make sense as a fourth big man or wing off the bench. Wesley Johnson was actually 17th among small forwards in Real Plus-Minus last season, and will likely decline his player option. Solomon Hill would be intriguing given his age and production last season, particularly in the playoffs, but he will likely get a larger offer than the Cavaliers can give.

Elijah: The Cavs have had two straight years of finding “bargain” free agent finds that made the team better in Shawn Marion and RJ.  It’s possible that RJ comes back on (probably the mid-level) if he wants.  Players who are past 30 and seeking a championship that I’d like to see the Cavs be interested in are Aaron Afflalo and Luol Deng.  Deng is probably a long shot since he is probably looking for one more payday but Afflalo may want to look for a championship at this point in his career.  Other than that, a veteran backup PG or wing should interest the Cavs.

Cory: There’s a couple guys I’m interested in, but I’m going to with Cleanthony Early, whom went one selection after Joe Harris in the 2014 NBA draft. Early was one of just 34 small forwards in the league who posted a positive DRPM (.11). He was dirt from downtown (.267), but I’m just looking for a guy who can switch on pick and rolls, and I think he’s got the size and lateral quickness to guard three positions.

Ben: The team is already full of the bargain basement players. With James Jones, Richard Jefferson, Sasha Kaun, and Mo Williams all likely to return on minimum deals, the Cavs don’t have room for guys that play at that level. I suppose Griffin could bring Andy back with his pal Barbosa on minimum deals. A guy like Gerald Henderson might be available. In reality, it’s hard to know what the new salary cap will do to the lower guys on the totem pole. Any number of quality players could end up becoming available for the minimum. Those same guys could end up making six to 10 mil a year depending on the situation. How much do we think O.J. Mayo will make next year? This is about to get very interesting.

 4. Is there a free agent that you think/hope might be willing to take less than market value to chase a ring in Cleveland?

Robert: Of course, there is. But chances are that he’s already on the roster. James Jones is expected back. Jefferson has back-tracked on his claims that he’s hanging them up. You can throw Mo Williams into this category, as well, with Mo opting into the second year of his modest two-year deal. How many ring chasers does one team need?

With players who might usually fall into this category (Joe Johnson, for example) likely to find much more than the minimum elsewhere, the Cavs may look for a player coming off a significant injury who is looking to re-establish himself… maybe, someone like Mario Chalmers. He has a history with James (though, not all of it good) and, if he can come back strong from his torn ACL, could provide the Cavs valuable two-way play off the bench.

Mike: Luol Deng would be great, but likely has no interest in coming back to Cleveland. It’s unlikely he would settle for what the Cavs could offer him, but Jared Dudley would be a tremendous fit. Dudley’s a great three-point shooter who can defend the forwards that LeBron doesn’t want to when they would share the floor together. He’s also known as a tremendous worker and locker room presence. Richard Jefferson gave the Cavaliers everything they could ask for and more last season and especially in the playoffs, but Jared Dudley would be an upgrade over Jefferson.

Elijah: A dream scenario would be to have Pau Gasol come to Cavs to chase a ring similar to the way David West did last year, turning down a big deal for a good chance at a ring.  Speaking of David West, he too may also be a player interested in taking less than market value again for an opportunity to win a ring.

Afflalo isn’t as sexy as the guys mentioned above but he might be a good fit.

Cory: Joe Johnson. I don’t hold grudges. Sure I’ll go through a period on nuclear pettiness, that may or may not involve signing people up for Craigslist casual encounters all across the country, and a subscription to The Watch Tower, but eventually I move on. Joe Johnson picked the wrong girl at the dance, and he knows it. If he’s willing to take whatever the Cavs can offer him, I’m down with him being the offensive punch off of the bench.

Ben: The long awaited return of Professor Andre Miller!!! The Cavs already have enough geezers, but that would be fun. Jared Dudley, Wesley Johnson, or Courtney Lee would be provide nice wing help. None of them is likely to sacrifice any cash in order to chase a ring, but if the market plays out strangely, they could be left without homes. If it comes down to signing on the cheap with a defending champion or a signing on the cheap with a lottery squad, I like Cleveland’s chances.

5. Which Cavalier currently under contract should the team explore trading?

Robert: I want to say Iman Shumpert, but I’m not sold that the team is so disappointed by Shumpert that they’ll trade him just to trade him. Besides, players with the same glaring flaws as Shump will soon be signing contracts in excess of the 4-year/$40-million deal Shumpert signed with the Cavs last summer.

And, no, I don’t think they trade Kevin Love this summer. That deal will always be in play — and the Celtics, long known to be Love’s heaviest pursuers, just keep making their glut of young players deeper — but winning the championship means that the Cavs can be patient. Maybe Love has a “monster” year in which he’s okay averaging 15 and 12 and embracing his new defensive role as “Curry stopper.” Ya never know…

Mike: The problem here is that any player we would want the Cavaliers to trade would be someone who had a disappointing year.  The Cavaliers should look into trading Iman Shumpert, but what kind of value could they get for him after a down year? Would the Kings be willing to trade Kosta Koufos and Ben McLemore for Shumpert considering their lack of perimeter defense? Probably not, but with the Kings you never know. The Kevin Love rumors will always be there, but Tyronn Lue has been outspoken on his opinion that Kevin Love will be a part of the team next season. It’s also incredibly difficult to trade a player of Love’s caliber and get equal value in return, especially considering the role Love has had for the Cavaliers over the last two seasons. The beautiful thing about being the Champs is that there is no pressure to make a trade, at least for now. 

Elijah: It seems that even winning a championship still hasn’t quelled the Kevin Love to Boston rumors.  I would not be a fan of that trade but many people believe it would be beneficial to all the parties involved.
Personally, the only Cavalier I would really consider trading would be Shumpert.  Unfortunately, it seems as though Shump can’t grow past the silly mistakes.  He still commits some strange fouls and hijacks the offense at the worst times (see games 3 and 4 in Cleveland).  He also has a larger-tha- market contract for 3 more years which makes it unlikely for him to be moved.  Ironically, the player I’d want back in the deal would be a more consistent player that is just like Shumpert, a defender a long and quick defensive-oriented player who can knock down open three point opportunities.

The Cavs don’t have to make any big splashes this offseason besides replacing RJ if he does retire.  Griffin will have his work cut out for him to find some wing depth, but other than that, the Cavs are in a good position for their title defense next season.

Cory: I’m not going to borrow John Adam’s 26-inch bass drum and pound away on it as a rallying cry for them to trade anyone. I’m assuming that Iman Shumpert was injured during much of the season and during his disastrous playoff performance. I dig that after his lackluster season, the $31 million remaining on his contract is the biggest albatross on the ledger. I just can’t imagine the Cavs getting an asset in return for him at this point. He’s only 25, and they need more wings capable of defending multiple positions, not less. I would hold onto him, and I’d hope that he can finally tap into his potential this season. If he can stay healthy, be an elite defensive wing, and just plant himself in the corner and drill wide open threes at a 40% clip, he’ll be worth his deal. His room for growth is one of the many reasons I’m optimistic that the Cavs can repeat.

Ben: Many of us would roam the countryside in search of a team willing to take Shumpert off the Cavalier’s books. But I’m not sure what that does for team chemistry. Is he so close to J.R. and Bron that we can expect him to remain in Cleveland for the duration? At this point, there is no need to explore any other trades. Cleveland is in the ultimate position of power. If another team wants to grab any of the Cavaliers’ talent, they will have to come to Griffin. A championship has completely changed Kevin Love’s value. It has put Kyrie back into “untouchable” status. It’s a different world. At the same time, it would be foolish to assume that the team is perfect and cannot be upgraded by making a major move. Yes, Griffin and LeBron will listen to any and all offers, but I’d be shocked if anyone is moved before the season.