Quick Note: I got selected to serve on a jury today, so I might have a little less time for this stuff. By the way, still can’t drink legally. What a country.
Alright, this stuff is a big deal. A really, really big deal. In fact, the Cavs pretty much just finished up their major moves for the off-season, assuming they get Channing Frye with the remainder of their mid-level, and I now believe I have a vague idea of what this team’s plan post-Shaq deal is.
Big Point #1: Yes, Varejao was indeed indispensible.
At some level, Varejao is a paradox. He’s a role player, but he plays core minutes and he’s getting core money.
I’m trying to sum this up as cleanly as I can, and this is about the best I can do: I believe that Antawn Jamison is a significantly better player than Anderson Varejao. If I had one game to win tomorrow and didn’t know who the rest of my players were, I would pick Jamison. However, if you replaced Anderson Varejao with Jamison last year, the team would have won 5-10 less games. It goes beyond “ability” vs. “fit”-the things Anderson does not do well, which are myriad, are replaceable. The things he does do extremely well are not. Those things are, in order:
1. Team Defense
Mike Brown’s defensive scheme, which might be the best in the NBA, relies on a few keys: shut down the three-pointer, close off the paint. There’s not a lot of ball-pressure, there’s not much gambling in the passing lanes, and it’s not built around big shot-blockers patrolling the paint. All it is is hands in the face of shooters on the perimeter and bodies in between the dribbler and the basket.
You can see this when the Cavs defend screen-rolls, the bread-and-butter of almost every offense. While most teams’ big man switches or hedges on the screen, Cavalier big men show hard and chase the dribbler all the way out to half-court before rotating back to the paint to shut off driving lanes. Nobody on the team does this anywhere near as well as Andy; in the entire league, maybe only a healthy KG does it better. Andy’s long arms, incredible pace, quick feet, amazing defensive IQ, and his abilty to get the charge (yes, I realize he sells them with vigor, but his feet are almost always in position) make him uniquely qualified to do the most important job for this defense, which is the cornerstone of the team.
2. Finishing at the Basket
The bread-and-butter of our offense is LeBron driving to the basket, obviously. To make that work, you need a guy who the defense must respect to keep them from using two guys to wall off LeBron going to the hoop. A pick-and-pop guy just isn’t going to do it; good-shooting bigs shoot the midrange J at 40-45%, and LeBron at the rim is a 70% proposition. The math just doesn’t work. That’s why you need a guy like Andy, who can use off-ball movement and dives to find the weak spots in a cheating defense and finish at the basket at 67%.
If you leave Andy free, he’s going to get a layup, which no defense can allow. He’s not going to get 20 points a game, but he’s going to force his man to stick, and the points come from LeBron having freedom to drive. In crunch-time, when the offense goes to heavy pick-and-roll action, nobody makes the roll better than Andy.
On both ends, it’s other guys, particularly LeBron, making the spectacular plays, but it’s often Andy who allows those plays to happen. He’s a piece of this core, he’s consistently been the best big man in the LeBron era, and I’m glad that got recognized.
Big Point #2: Anthony Parker was a big get.
Okay guys, here are the facts:
Player A: 8.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.7 SPG, 46% FG, 71% FT, 32% 3-PT
Player B: 10.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.2 SPG, 43% FG, 83% FT, 39% 3-PT
Player A is Trevor Ariza. Player B is Anthony Parker. Both have stalwart defensive reputations, and play similar offensive games based around catch-and-shoot threes and open-court and broken-floor drives to the basket. And Ariza’s 3-PT % was easily his career high; Parker’s 3-PT % was his career-low by 4%. He’s older and has less upside, but he comes much cheaper and this is a win-now team.
This is the guy we wanted. He can allow LeBron to play the four, can guard fast 4s and big 3s, loves the open corner three as much as anyone (in Toronto they call the corners “Parkerville”), and doesn’t need the ball to be effective. Ferry’s coveted this guy since he came back over, and now he finally has him. This guy is the super-Wally we needed to make more small-ball lineups work.
My issue is that he plays the same role as our two cheap, promising young athletes, Tarence Kinsey and Danny Green, but again, this is a win-now team and I get minimizing risk.
Big Point #4: The Power Forward we think works best alongside Shaq is LeBron himself.
I’ve made this point before, but I’ll make it again: Good threes are much, much easier to find than good fours. And LeBron is a phenominal four in limited minutes. He can’t handle the play-in-play out defensive responsibility the 4 requires for 40 minutes, and offensively we need LeBron getting more touches than he can get at the 4, but for spurts it’s going to be devistatingly effective. The plan appears to be to take LeBron at the 4 from change-of-pace gimmick to serious part of our strategy, and I’m completely on board. Speaking of…
Big Point #5: Shaq is a change-of-pace player, not a guy to be plugged in for 40 a night, and he appears to be being treated accordingly.
It’s hard to do, but think of Shaq as a 310-pound J.R. Smith or Ben Gordon. He’s going to provide a lot of offensive pop for 25 minutes, but he doesn’t have the two-way ability, versatility, or conditioning to say “he’s our starting center” and call it a day. The move is fitting Shaq into the existing lineup, not fitting a new rotation around Shaq.
Big Point #6: Our best 5 players are not best served playing on the same lineup.
One more time: the spacing doesn’t make sense with a frontcourt of Shaq, Andy, and LeBron. It might work, but it’ll take away from what all of them do best. We’re not going to have a pretty, sweet-looking, dominant 5-man rotation on paper. And that’s not the end of the world. Shifting lineups and “show” starters are the way of the league. 12 guys play a game, not 5. Crunch-time is still a question, but I’ll get to that later.
For now, here’s what I see as our basic frontcourt rotation plan. (Caveat: I am willing to admit that Mike Brown knows more about how to make this basketball team work than I do. Crazy, right? But this is my best guess as to what everyone’s thinking at this point.)
Unit #1: The Starting Lineup
C: Ilgauskas (total minutes at this point: 8)
PF: Varejao (8)
SF: James (8)
Notes: This lineup works. We all know this. Don’t fix what isn’t broken.
Unit #2: Shaq In, Z out at about 4:00 in the 1st quarter
C: Shaq (4)
PF: LeBron (12)
SF: Parker (4)
Notes: Offensive blitz here to end the quarter-at this point, I think we rest LeBron defensively here, keeping him on the perimeter, while have AP plays the 4 role defensively showing and rotating, and dare a big power-forward to punish us. (Pop quiz: name all the ACTUAL power-forwards in this league-Duncan and Gasol don’t count, because they’re really centers-who are legit post-up threats. Fewer than you’d think.)
Unit #3: LeBron’s 1st Rest
C: Shaq (7)
PF: Frye (3)
SF: Parker (7)
Notes: Defense not great here, but Frye keeps the spacing and Mo and Shaq are an AMAZING luxury as a 2nd-unit offense.
Unit #4: Andy back in
C: Andy (11)
PF: Frye (6)
SF: Kinsey/Green (3)
Notes: Pretty speculative with the younger guys, but Parker gets a blow, and this is a short-time unit.
Unit # 5: Starters Back
C: Z (11)
PF: Andy (14)
SF: LeBron (15)
Unit #6: Finish With Shaq
C: Shaq (10)
PF: LeBron (16)
SF: Parker (10)
Again, I stress that this is REALLY rough. Really, really rough. This is more lineups than MB will probably end up using in the actual games, but I went with a lot of lineups to represent the possibilites. And still unanswered is if we can sign Frye (and if he can bounce back to rotation-quality form), if Shaq will consent to coming off the bench, how much Z still has in the tank, etc. The real problem here is that Shaq/Andy doesn’t work offensively and Shaq/Z obviously doesn’t work defensively, and it’s hard to give both of them their minutes.
In the second half, I’d expect to see huge stretches of Shaq/LeBron/Parker or Andy/Z/LeBron, and in crunch-time if offense is needed it’s probably Shaq/LeBron/Parker or Andy/LeBron/Parker as a defensive lineup (provided the other team doesn’t have a 7-foot low-post threat they’re comfortable throwing it down to in crunch-time.)
I’m having a tough time making the math work when Z, Shaq, and Andy all need minutes, but it’ll be fun to see this team figure it out-too much talent is a good problem to have. And I’ve just realized that I completely left JJ Hickson, who I’m really high on, out of the discussion: if he can play with Shaq, lives get a lot easier.
whatever you need to believe that andy was worth $50 mil for 6 years. go ahead and write it down.
nevermind that a slightly richer man’s andy varejao was inked today by another team without so much as a peep from the cavs. $26 mil over 5 years is all that it took the nuggets to sign chris andersen. but let’s not even mention that. let’s go ahead and break this down.
1. “However, if you replaced Anderson Varejao with Jamison last year, the team would have won 5-10 less games.” (My head almost blew up when i read this. No one that reads this blog ACTUALLY buys this right? Because i’ll tell you right now… No gm in the NBA believes this. Lebron James sure as hell doesnt believe this. Hell… even Andy probably doesnt believe this. You’re THAT guy huh? Hey, want antawn jamison on your team? – No i’m good, I’ve got Andy Freakin Varejao.)
2. ‘Mike Brown’s defensive scheme, which might be the best in the NBA…You can see this when the Cavs defend screen-rolls’ (i guess we already forgot about the orlando series. Sans jameer nelson btw. And mike brown’s defensive scheme was majorly responsible for them losing that series. He didnt even bother to make any adjustments. Maybe send different looks and double teams to howard? Another reason why the cavs will be a regular season team, not a playoff team- awful coaching. Also, the elite teams in the nba had a field day against them in the regular season).
3. (Hyperbole much?) “Nobody on the team does this anywhere near as well as Andy; in the entire league, maybe only a healthy KG does it better.” (Ya. And the dos equis guy really exists too. Nobody in the NBA shows harder than Varejao when defending the pick and roll? Wow, i know you watch all 82 for the Cavs. But you do watch other NBA games too right?)
4. “you need a guy who the defense must respect to keep them from using two guys to wall off LeBron going to the hoop. A pick-and-pop guy just isn’t going to do it” (The cavs’ problem isnt that they cant score inside the paint. It’s that they dont have anyone that can consistently make OPEN JUMP SHOTS. Even worse now, Shaq will be clogging the lane. So when Lebron drives to the hoop, you want Lebron to drive hard, Shaq to be parked in the lane, and then Andy to dive to the basket?… I dont think you’ve thought this through. You dont think big, lanky, long-armed teams like LA- Odom, Bynum, Gasol or Boston- Garnett, Perkins, Wallace will have a field day with this? All they need to do is clog the lane and you can say bye bye to offensive production. I know you want to play ‘Bron at the 4, but that cant happen for more than 10-15 mins per game. Especially not in crunch time. )
5. “A pick-and-pop guy just isn’t going to do it; good-shooting bigs shoot the midrange J at 40-45%… the math just doesnt work.” (Here’s a little math. The last THREE teams that won NBA championships just happen to have a big man that can shoot a midrange, while having a penetrating a person that can go to the hoop. Gasol, Garnett, Duncan. Your witness).
I wont even visit the Anthony Parker proposition. I have to stop after reading about Andy Varejao being the second coming of Bill Russell. Even then. $50 mil for 6 years? My goodness. You’re paying an undersized PF that can’t score, cant create his own shot, cant post up, cant make a midrange J, a player that defenses can sag off, rebounding and defensive specialist (no blocking though) $50 mil for 6 years? Congratulations! You’ve made the Ben Wallace mistake all over again.
The good news for Danny Ferry is, that he didnt overpay the most for a player during the day. Bargnani set to make $50 mil for 5 years. But at least he can get his own shot. Hell, at least he can make a shot outside of 5 ft. from the basket.
I really cant emphasize enough what a joke of a signing these are. Both of them. And not a single negative peep from the voice of Cavs nation (Yes cavstheblog. I consider you the best Cavs blog out there. No equivocation. Hence my disappointment in this post).
[...] Anthony Parker appears Cleveland-bound, so cross him off your biannual exception wish lists. Should be good times for the Cavs. [...]
I am happy with the moves (especially if they can find a shooting big like Frye to add for what money is left). I agree that the contribution of Andy cannot be understated, and while they may have overpaid a little, not by as much as people think. Big men get paid a lot, particularly ones who average basically 8 and 8 in limited minutes and give the energy/defense Andy does. I am glad to have him locked up for years to come, so we at least have some idea of our core in 2010-2012. I am also worried about how they will fill the lineups, but I’m sure MB will come up with something.
I don’t know a whole lot about Parker, but I know Ferry has wanted him for awhile, and I trust Ferry. Hope they sign Frye, I think he has the potential to get back to his All-Rookie form. That’s right, for those who don’t know, he was on the All-Rookie team before he got traded to a poor fit in Portland (think Shannon Brown here), and thus got buried on the bench.
Krolik, why don’t you just drop following someone on Twitter until you get a 94th follower. Would hate to see your rep hurt like LeBron getting dunked on!
Ok, so, what about 2 guard? Who starts? Parker or Delonte? I say Delonte, but let Parker come off the bench. Now, I think the Cavs are 1 starter away from being AWESOME. Weird rumor on hoopshype about Gerald Wallce for Wally and Hickson. Now I think that rumor’s bunk. The ONLY way that Charlotte would do it is if we signed Wally to a massive 1 year deal at 14 million and we took back Diop or Nazr Mohammed with Wallace. Which, would be extremely irresponsible, fiscally. But maybe Charlotte is desperate enough to cut long term contracts, so they’ll trade Wallace. I’d love to see the Cavs get one more big swing, and then run a huge lineup of Parker, LeBron, Wallace, Andy, Shaq/Z. That team would be hard to score on in crunch time. I think they’re one more swingman away.
so, wait:
varejao: 5/6 yrs, $42-50 million
marion: 5 yrs, $39 million
birdman: 5 yrs, $26 million
this is fucked up.
Birdman and Varejao are not the same player. Birdman is a block specialist, Varejao is more of a position defender. Their styles are completely different. You also missed the point on his Jamison remark. Jamison does a lot of things Andy does not do, like anything on offense outside of 5 feet, but we have other guys who do that same thing. Jamison cannot do the things Varejao is good at, and we have no one else on this team who can. On your second point, you adjusted the sentence to make your point, so its really just not valid. On your third point, again, you are just wrong, Varejao is an excellent show defender on the pick and roll. The Cavs do have guys who can hit open jump shots – Parker, West, Mo, Z, maybe Frye if we get him, so I don’t know what you are complaining about. Z and Frye would be those big men who can step out and shoot the J. Further, teams do no sag off of Varejao; when they do, he makes a weakside cut and makes the easy basket. Watch the first 5 minutes of Game 1 of the Orlando series, they were playing a soft zone on LeBron and the first couple of baskets the Cavs got were from Varejao sneaking under the hoop and getting an easy layup. After that, they didn’t sag off of him anymore. And Varejao is not undersized, he is 6′11. A lot of your points are just misinformed, which makes you appear ignorant. You mainly just missed the point Krolik was trying to make and took it the wrong way. Yea, the overpaid for Varejao, and he wouldn’t have gotten as much money elsewhere, but he wouldn’t be as effective elsewhere as he is in Cleveland, and we had to keep him because of how great of a fit is. And I don’t know what Ben Wallace mistake you are referring of. We didn’t sign him, we traded a crappy overpaid SG in Larry Hughes for him. Again, you just appear ignorant
Perfectly said Ricky. The Natural just wants to rain on the parade.
@Ricky.
I think by ignorant, you mean astute.
My first point is to call out the author for some extreme hyperbole. Mainly that the Cavs would win 5-10 less games if they had Jamison instead of Varejao. If you really think this, i have some great beachside property in Utah I want to sell you. I get that Varejao is a different player than Jamison. Brings different things. But to suggest that the Cavs would be less successful with Jamison is absurd. Do you agree?
My second point isnt really about Varejao. It’s about another exaggeration, which states that Mike Brown’s defensive scheme is the best in the league. Maybe in the regular season. Against inferior teams with which they pad their regular season. But in the playoffs, he got exposed for what he is, a one-trick pony that couldnt make adjustments. Best defense in the league?… hardly.
On my third point, again, this is too much hyperbole. No one in the NBA is better at showing on the pick and roll than Varejao, save Garnett? That statement is just as bloated as Andy’s new contract. Again, i didnt say he isnt a good pick and roll defender. But to say he’s the best, and to pay him like he’s the best, is completely absurd.
On my fourth point, I dont know if you watched the Orlando series, but what I saw was players getting the kick-out from ‘Bron and bricking and bricking and bricking and bricking from the 3 point line. They need a core player to shoot at the midrange. Like i said, when Lebron drives to the hoop, you expect Shaq AND Andy to dive to the lane? How crowded do you want it to be down there? This strategy cannot work. Yes I saw Game 1. The Cavs lost that game didnt they? I also saw the Cavs only legitimate loss at home. To the Lakers. Who sent an extra wall of defenders when Lebron drove to the hoop. They were long enough to bother Lebron and long enough for the passing lanes to be shut down inside. So what is Shaq and Andy gonna do when Lebron drives to the hoop? You tell me. By the way, I also watched the rest of that series. Andy’s point totals. 4, 4, 9, 7, 14. Yup. That’s $50 mil material.
My fifth point argues the author’s notion that having a pick and pop guy isnt going to work. Well, I contend that it worked pretty well for the last 3 NBA champs. Who had Gasol, Garnett, and Timmy. So i dont know where his notion came from. (I think that if you signed a pick and pop guy… Krolik would be singing a tune that says “wow, that’s exactly what we need.”)
Andy is LISTED at 6′11. Doesnt mean he is. And anyways, he “PLAYS” small. This is hard for me to explain to someone who knows very little about basketball. But i guess i can say that he’s not as atheltic as other PFs. He’s not as lanky.
Which of this statements is false? Andy cant shoot midrange or longrange consistently. Andy isnt really a post up player. Andy cant create his own shot. Overall, he cant really score. He’s mainly on the team for rebounding and on the ball defense. He cant really protect the rim the way Camby or someone like that does. The Ben Wallace comparison writes itself.
I think you missed MY point. The overpayment of Andy is ridiculously atrocious. The point is made that the Cavs NEEDED him because he fits what they are trying to do. The thing is, last i checked, Lebron was unhappy with the status quo. And the way things are done in Cleveland came up far short of winning a championship. So maybe it’s time to mix things up. Think outside the box. And maybe not bid against yourself when signing Andy Varejao.
None of this was mentioned in Krolik’s blog. No i didnt miss his point. I just think he erred greatly and ignored a lot of Andy’s massive shortcomings and the absurdity of the money he was paid.
So what about THAT was ignorant?
Krolik’s assessment of Varejao is as exaggerated as the contract. (BTW. Andy was a FA this year. You gave him a contract. Hence you signed him. How difficult is that, Ricky?)
I’d rain on a $60 million parade for Varejao too. Turkoglu was more important and harder to replace for the Magic’s playstyle, and he wasn’t worth $10 million/yr to them. Verejao is a MLE player, even for what he provides to the Cavs. That’s a lot of money eating into an ever-shrinking cap for a lot of years for a player who’s already reached a very limited ceiling.
Varejao maybe got slightly overpaid but who didn’t this offseason. He plays good defense and plays his role well and he’s only like 26. I really doubt they can go with Shaq off the bench though. He’ll say he’s fine with it at first and all that but there’s a reason his departure from all his teams have been at least a little messy. Also the Ariza/Parker comparison seems a little unfair. Here’s some other facts about those two.
Player A 14.6 pts 7.0 reb 2.9 ast 54.4 true shooting %
Player B 13.0 pts 4.8 reb 4.1 ast 52.4 true shooting %
Player A is Ariza’s numbers per 40 and B is Parker’s numbers per 40. You also have to factor in that Ariza was on a much better and deeper team which means less shots. I know Parker is cheaper but Ariza is definitely better, and 10 years younger.
First of all, everyone needs to simmer down. Let’s look at this rationally. AV signed 6 year contract for 42 mil, and the last year is only partially guaranteed. With incentives (which means he will be earning the extra money here people) could bring it up to 50. Basically, he’s going to be getting 7 mil a year with a possibility of a little over 8 if we he isn’t bought out of the last year and reaches all of his incentives. Last year he made almost 6, so basically, Ferry gave him a 1 mil a year raise.
Is that worth it to keep a guy who has played a major role in this team’s success over the past 3 years? I say yes. You also have to consider that every player is looking for a raise so you weren’t going to sign him at the same price, had to give him something. Also, if you want LeBron to be loyal to the franchise and to Cleveland and not leave in 2010, the franchise has to show a little loyalty itself by committing to core players. From what I can tell, LeBron loves playing with AV and values his contributions on the floor and to the team. You can say all you want, but you can’t deny the fact that AV has played a crucial role in building the identity of this team and getting them to where they are at today.
Another thing to consider is what were the other options? Odom isn’t leaving the beach unless you pony up 15 mil, guys like millsap and david lee want 10 to 12. They are a little more talented, but are they worth the extra 4 mil a year? Plus, you never know how they’re going to fit in with our team and our system. You know AV works in our system so don’t fix it if it aint broken. Also, with guys like Millsap and Lee, they also play a lot in the paint and have limited face up games so there would still be issues with clearing the lane for LeBron. If we would have let AV walk, we’d be going to battle every game with J.J Hickson and Darnell Jackson as our top two 4’s on the depth chart. That’s a little scary to me. Finally, don’t look at the deals Marion and Anderson got and criticize what AV got. Anderson is coming back from a drug suspension and had been out of the league two years. He had to prove himself and that’s why his contract was so low given his production and importance to the team. He was basically a rookie again and you don’t sign rookies to ridiculous contracts. If he had been in the league for 3 or 4 years with no incidents and did what he did, some GM would have grossly overpaid him to the tune of 9 mil a year. As for Marion, that’s Dallas overpaying him. He’s 31 and his numbers have been declining since leaving phoenix. With out Steve Nash, he isn’t and will never again be an all star. Maybe Jason Kidd will help revitalize him, but he’s getting old as well. I would have been pissed if we signed Marion to that contract. I guarantee you AV’s PER will be higher than Marion’s over the next five years.
Thank you Steve for illustrating why it is not a gross overpayment and making a lot of great points
The Natural: I actually did mean astute. My bad. Thanks for clearing that up
I will give you that Shaq and Andy won’t be an ideal duo to play at the same time, but it probably will work out where they won’t have to if the Cavs can sign Frye and get good burn from Hickson and Jackson.
Cavs would be a bad defensive team with Jamison on the team and not Varejao. But a better offensive team. So maybe not 5-10 games, but probably even at best.
And Andy is 6′11. This isn’t the NCAA. All players are officially measured before they are drafted. Maybe he plays small, but when he is bringing down offensive boards he certainly doesn’t appear small
Where did you see that LeBron was unhappy with the status quo? I’d like to read that quote. I’m not sure what the status quo is, they have made numerous moves the past couple of years, the roster from when the made the finals a few years back has nearly been completely changed over: unless I’m forgetting someone the only holdovers are LBJ, Gibson, Z, and Varejao. Nevermind the massive trade last year that changed half the roster. So if you could explain the status quo for my tiny brain, that would help, and also if you could link to something where LeBron said that he is upset with the status quo, that would help too
The Ben Wallace comparison is off-base, because Varejao is an excellent finisher around the rim. Wallace is not. I have witnessed him having a dunk blocked by the rim before.
Andy didn’t have a great Orlando series, but that’s because like big men, he can’t guard Dwight Howard and can’t chase Rashard Lewis around. It was a bad matchup for him. But after the first few minutes of game 1, they didn’t sag off Varejao but rather they stayed close to him. He wasn’t a problem in creating space. Also, guys like Mo and Delonte did miss a lot of shots but that is not normally their game, they are usually good shooters. Against Boston and LA, Varejao is much more useful
Varejao’s worth in basketball is not easily put in statistical terms, he does so many things that don’t show up in the box score. I said that they overpaid for him, but not by much. It is definitely not an atrocious contract
Finally, I agree that pick and pop big men are nice to have and are important. But a guy like Varejao is important too.
Yeah, as a Mavs fan that Marion deal is ugly, but he can still finish at the rim and play good defense which is exactly what the Mavs need him for rather than him trying to create his own shot on a bad Miami/Toronto team. Also with the roster so old already I like the decision to just make one last push and be awful in 3 years rather than sit in 45 win purgatory like the Pistons.
Further, Krolik said Mike Brown’s defense “might” be the best in the league, and he was referring to the system they run. It is similar to the defense Boston runs, only they have better players running it when KG is healthy. And still, it is far from a definitive statement saying it is the best. Other teams have better defenses because of personnel, but the Cavs run a very good system, but unfortunately they had Mo guarding PGs and Z guarding Cs
“A lot of people are killing the Cavs for the Varejao deal. I didn’t think it was that bad. The last year is a partial guarantee, the per-year numbers aren’t ridiculous (he starts under $7 mil this year), and if they pushed it much lower OKC or Portland could have made a push for him — remember, he was unrestricted. He’s not a scorer, but he’s an elite defending big who can rebound. Historically, teams have paid for that.” John Hollinger in an ESPN.com chat. A person whose opinion I value highly
I take issue with a few things in Krolik’s post regarding Andy’s ability to get this team to the next level. For one – not starting Shaq? Not going to happen. Also, if you believe Shaq will be such a good passer out of the post for LBJ (like he was for Wade, Kobe, as well as 3pt specialists Damon Jones, and Antoine Walker) he can just as easily pass to a flashing Andy along the baseline.
Also, when you break the deal down – it comes down to the MLE for this year and going forward – there are a bunch of incentives and the last year’s not guaranteed, etc. So it’s not a bad deal – I think the Andy signing is fine.
Here’s my concern – Anthony Parker.
year 1
Player A : 23.6 Min 46%FG 4.7-10.3 Attempts per game 43% 3P% 13.1 PPG.
Player B: 33.0 Min 42% FG 4.0 – 9.4 Attempts per game 39% 3P% 10.7 PPG
Those are Wally and Anthony Parker’s numbers using the last time Wally got some consistent shot attempts. After coming to the Cavs, Wally went to 3.0-8.4 Attempts per game in 07-08 and 2.4 – 5.4 Attempts per game this past season (though his 3P% was higher this year in a Cavs uni than last year in a Cavs uni – the numbers above are from his time in Seattle).
My question is – everyone is thinking Anthony Parker is going to give us some big boost off the bench….. um, where is that logic coming from? Wally played almost 10 less minutes, and scored just 2 points less. And he was inconsistent at best (4/5 one night for 12 points, 1/4 and 2/5 the next two games and a 7 ppg average). The easy litmus test is to look at the higher # of FGA’s per game and compare it to PPG. If it’s almost a 1-1 ratio – you don’t have an efficient player. Bad news – A Parker fits that mold.
A guy that never excelled as anything other than a starter, scores a career best 12.5 PPG on 4.8-10.1 FGA per game while shooting 43% from 3 and 81% from the line? Ugh. And now you’re asking him to come off the bench for some scoring punch. That strategy failed with Sasha AND Wally – explain how it will work with A Parker?
@Ricky.
If i remember correctly Hollinger also picked the Rockets and the Nuggets against the Lakers. Funny you quoted hollinger because he’s a stats kind of guy. And you just mentioned that Andy’s worth isnt measured with stats.
Umm… also, do you really need a quote from James to know that he’s not happy with what management has done with the Cavs in the past? The endless NY references arent enough for you. How about the fact that he’s hurting the team indirectly by keeping the franchise in limbo which then prevents other FA’s to committ to the Cavs past this year? But hey, if you need a quote… i guess im out of luck.
Ok. Andy is a main component of what the team is about. The problem with this is… this team is about losing to elite teams. That’s why im saying. Maybe instead of Andy, (or Shaq)… maybe Ferry could’ve gone in a diff direction. Marcus Camby from the Clippers was on the block. Birdman was out there. Two players that can play help defense. Camby can shoot the midrange. And Birdman is a much better finisher. David Lee was out there. He might not be as good a defender but he can at least hit a midrange shot and is just as good if not a better rebounder. Ditto with Millsap.
Also, how many times do you i have to read Frye’s name from one of your responses? Channing Freaking Frye. Wow. If you’re counting on Channing Frye for reliable minutes, this team is in for a world of hurt. Too bad the Cavs arent playing in the Pac-10. Next you’ll be telling me that Ike Diogu is a great player too. Pac10 all stars!!! And even then, you realize you’re paying your front starting frontline 27 mil next year. Too bad they need Channing Frye to balance it out right? Awful.
@Steve
I agree that Andy is a useful player. This is a GROSS overpayment. If Ferry wasnt so incompetent, this would’ve been a smaller number. Youre right. Millsap and Lee are out there. Demanding 10 mil +. So after they get paid, who else has the money to offer Varejao? Andy is good. Just not 50 mil good. That figure is off by about 14 million. Sad.
@ The Natural
I would have loved to have gotten Camby. I don’t think he was available though, the Clippers wanted to keep him over Kamen and Randolph because of his short contract. But you are right, he would have been very nice. I’m pretty sure the Cavs did try to get him at the deadline too. Birdman is a different story. I am a fan of his, he is obviously a great shot blocker, but you are wrong to mention that he is a much better finisher. I know its hypocritical of me to say Varejao can’t be measured and stats and then use stats, but thats what I’m going to do to prove my point. Birdman’s eFG% in the immediate basket area was 54% and on dunks was 89%, while Varejao’s was 63% and 95%. Also, no way Cavs could get David Lee with the MLE, sign and trade is possible but after getting Shaq I’m not sure the Cavs had much to offer, other than Varejao, but that would get tricky. Also, David Lee is not a good midrange shooter as you claim, he is actually very similar to Varejao. His jump shot eFG% was 35%, while Varejao’s was 34%. Neither is good, but Lee does do a lot of the same things that Varejao does (in fact he has a slightly better rebound rate), and will probably get a deal around the same value as Varejao. Also, Millsap’s eFG% on jump shots was 36%. He will also get a deal around what Varejao got. I would recommend looking at 82games.com before you make claims about what players can and can’t do. You said that Birdman is a better finisher than Varejao and that Lee and Millsap can hit the midrange shot – those things are all untrue
I just mention Frye because he is a good shooter who will produce well if he gets consistent minutes. You are taking what I said way out of proportion.
What endless NY references do you mean with LeBron? Was it wearing a Yankees hat 3 years ago? Was it when he said New York was one of his favorite cities? I live in Cleveland, but hell NYC is one of my favorite cities, its a pretty awesome place. But their basketball team is bad. If he hated this area so much he wouldn’t hold his annual AAU showcase in Akron, it would probably be in NYC or LA or something. You are crazy if you think he is unhappy with what management has done, or you just don’t pay attention. He came out and said he liked the Shaq deal, same for Mo Williams a year ago. Keeping the franchise in limbo? Is D-Wade not doing the same thing? He said that he will stay in Miami if they are a Championship contender, and LeBron has said the same thing. He has always said how he loves it in Cleveland. Not that this has much to do with Anderson Varejao
There is not a team in the league that uses all 12 of it’s players on a consistent basis. The last two or three players are rookies or “in case of emergency break glass” injury players. The cavs will have an 8 or 9 man rotation except when there is a blowout. And do you honestly believe that shaq will not be starting?! You’re to young to be drinking so it must be crack.
Varejao is a lot of things both negative and positive but undersized at power forward? Since when is 6′11″,260 lbs. undersized? That’s not even undersized at center. Now if you meant lack of strength rather than size, i agree completely. Lebron needs to get him in the weight room and add some lean muscle to his brazilian buddy.
Would you rather have Brandon Bass who just turned 24 at 4 years, $18 million or Varejao at 5 years, $50 million (with the last year only partially guaranteed)? Or how about Paul Millsap at 4 years, $34 million? Those deals make the Varejao contract look even worse. “Slightly overpaid” is *slightly* understated.
Frye is gone.
So, uh… Drew Gooden, this is awkward. Sorry we traded you, but, uh, we’re kind of looking for a power forward.
They didn’t have money for Millsap or Bass. How hard is it to understand that Varejao was the only option? Besides, I’d take Andy over Bass. Millsap…. we’ll wait and see what he does as a starter for a full season. Assuming he ever becomes a starter.
“Didn’t have money for Millsap or Bass”? Except… the money that was used to overpay Varejao… I’m bleeding from my ears. It’s okay to take off the rose-colored glasses and question your team’s move every once in a while. LeBron isn’t going to stay or leave based off you wondering on the internet if Danny Ferry is crazy or not.
Billy, let’s see if we can break this down. The Cavaliers were, are, and have been over the cap since the season ended. When a team is over the cap, they CANNOT extend any offer they want to any player, unless they own the bird rights on that player. To own a player’s bird rights, said player would have to have been on the team x number of years (can’t remember how many). This means that the Cavs could extend that offer to Varejao, and Varejao only. There literally was NO money to offer Bass or Millsap. The MLE is around 5.7 mil, the BAE is around 2.2 mil. If the Cavs had thrown both at Millsap, it still wouldn’t have matched what he was offered by Portland. The reason the Blazers could offer that deal is because they were UNDER the cap. Besides, throwing all of their exception money would have been in incredibly foolish thing to do. And, to be quite honest, I don’t think the move is as crazy as people seem to think it is. When compared to last year, Andy is just getting a half million raise. The last year is only a partial guarantee, so its no big deal either. The deal was rather smart because it only increased Varejao’s salary slightly, but probably soothed his ego greatly.
Oh, and no one should buy the whole “no one else was bidding on him” idea because you never know what will happen (i.e. Charlotte signing Varejao to offer sheet two years ago).
You can’t combine the bi-annual exception and the MLE…none of you know how the salary cap. Billy, its a 6 year deal, 42.5 of which is guaranteed. Get your facts straight
The more I think about Danny Green, the more excited I get. He fits the exact profile of the wing we needed. The only question is whether he will be good enough at the things he’s supposed to be good at. It worked out pretty well for North Carolina.
I really don’t think he’s worth 50 million over 6 years but the Cav’s probably made a good move if he’s that indispensable to your team. Reminds me of the Luke Walton signing – a guy we had to pay off a few years back just to salvage something of value from those seasons. The brunt of Andy’s contract won’t be for a few years and with Shaq + Lebron’s contracts coming off the books you guys are STILL going to have a ton of cap space to resign said players to your team.
That being said your stuck with this guy and if Andy starts to suck balls next year you’re going to be stuck with him for a long time. The Cav’s definitely overpaid but sometimes you have to lock up good pieces when you can.
Krolik -
In my opinion the Cavs would be fucking crazy not to start Shaq. Shaq has never not started and putting him on the bench could really fuck him up. You guys made this move to bring in the BIG DIESEL and in basketball you never leave your biggest cars in the garage. Plus your paying this guy 20m+ this year and treating him like the Pistons treated AI is not going to get it done.
Z is not a quality center starter come playoff time but Shaq still is. Now you could argue that the Cav’s will get by just fine with Z starting (like last year) but eventually your team will have to get use to Shaq playing starter minutes so you can be in rhythm coming into the playoffs
This is a little off-topic, but did anyone see the Cavs first summer league game? The recap says Eyenga scored 14 points, but the box score says he scored only 1 point and Jawad WIlliams had 14 points. Anyone know? It’s the same on espn and nba.com.
[...] The Haze Is Beginning To Clear Up [...]
TK is playing himself right off of this team. Have you caught either Summer League game?
Interesting post. I’m not entirely sure what you meant about the KC holiday shopping event though, could you elaborate?
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