The Point Four-ward: Finals Fantasy

Four points I’m thinking about the Cleveland Cavaliers…

1.) I’m carrying a fair amount of dread into the NBA Finals rematch between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors that tips off Thursday night at Oracle Arena. I’m sure I’m not in the minority either. Cavs fans saw what these Warriors could do over the course of six games last June. The rest of the free world who hadn’t already borne witness (or is that word trademarked?), tuned in this year to see an even better version of last year’s champs run roughshod through the league on their way to 73 wins, a new regular season record.

Of course, these two teams are different than the ones that met in last year’s Finals. The Cavs are healthy, hungry and have never looked better, with LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love finally looking like the larger-than-average Three Cavs fans have been waiting for. The Warriors face real questions about Stephen Curry‘s health, but are also the more tested of the two teams after surviving seven games worth of exchanging haymakers with the Oklahoma City Thunder. So much has changed for both teams since they last met in late-January that it’s tough to make any hard-and-fast predictions based on the regular season.

Take a look at the playoff stats for both teams, though, and you can see the Cavs may actually have a chance. The two best teams statistically are, in fact, the two teams remaining and there’s not as much separating them as most (and, in particular, my unsinkable sense of foreboding) think.

2.) The Warriors still play much faster than the Cavs, averaging nearly ten full possessions more (101.67 to 91.83) per 48 minutes. But, this year, it’s the Cavaliers who come into the Finals sporting the best offense in the playoffs with an Offensive Rating of 116.2. Compare that to the second place Warriors at 109.8 and you have a Cavs team scoring five points per 100 possessions more than their NBA Finals opponent. That’s the same difference that separated the Warriors and their second round opponent, the Portland Trailblazers.

The Cavs are actually tied for Assist Ratio (the number of assists a team averages per 100 possessions) with the lauded passing of the Greatest Show on Hardcourt at 18.3. The Warriors top the Cavs’ work on the boards, pulling down an average 44.6 rebounds a game compared to 43 for the Cavs. But, when you adjust those stats for pace, the Cavs are outperforming the Warriors there, as well. The Cavaliers are nabbing 53.7% of the total rebounds in their games, to the Warriors’ 48.9%.

The Cavs sport a better True Shooting Percentage (59% to 56.8%), are averaging fewer turnovers (11.6 to 14) and are shooting better from both the field (47.5% to 46.4%) and three (43.4% to 40.3%).

Of course, the Cavs’ defense hasn’t been as good, giving up two points more per 100 possessions, but, in the end, their net rating (Offensive Rating minus Defensive Rating) is 13.4, a healthy clip ahead of the Warriors’ own 8.9.

Now, these are just numbers… and a lot went into these particular numbers shaking out the way they have. While both teams have enjoyed their share of blow-out wins, the Cavs’ offensive stats enjoyed the benefit of some record-breaking shooting against the Atlanta Hawks, while the Warriors were impacted by playing games without Curry and against a stout Oklahoma City Thunder defense.

Still, “just numbers” suggest some cause for the Cavs and their fans to enter Game 1 not content to just let the Warriors run over them for their second title in two years.

[All stats courtesy of nba.com]

3.) If you’re looking for one player who could swing this series, look no further than Warriors foward/center Draymond Green. Green, a 49% shooter from the field during the regular season (38.8% from three), shot just 35.4% from the field and 20.8% from deep in the Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder. When the Warriors go small, look for Green to be matched up, at least for stretches, with Kevin Love, who should be a more favorable match-up for Green than the more physical, longer Steven Adams.

But when I point to Green as a potential X-Factor, it’s not because he might get his offensive groove back against the Cavaliers. It’s because he is dangerously close to missing one or more Finals games.

While his now-infamous kick to Adams’s kiwis in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals didn’t get Green ejected, it was later upgraded to a Flagrant 2. The NBA uses a point system to enforce repeat flagrant offenders. A Flagrant 1 is worth one point and a Flagrant 2 is worth two points. Green, after the league retroactively hit him with a Flagrant 1 against Michael Beasley in the first round, has three flagrant points heading into the Finals.

And three points is where things start to get interesting. According to nba.com:

A player will receive the points set forth above for each flagrant foul committed during the Playoffs. If the player’s Playoff total exceeds 3 points, he will receive an automatic suspension following the game in which his point total exceeds 3 points and for each additional flagrant foul committed during the Playoffs, as follows:

Player at 2 points commits a FFP2: automatic one-game suspension

Player at 3 or 4 points commits a FFP1: automatic one-game suspension

Player at 3 or 4 points commits a FFP2: automatic two-game suspension

Player at 5 points or more commits a FFP1 or FFP2: automatic two-game suspension

With the officials being fairly quick to level flagrant foul rulings this postseason — and with Green known for having a feisty personality — his next flagrant foul would be a huge loss for the Warriors.

Look for Matthew Dellavedova, the team’s only real known pest now that Anderson Varejao is wearing Warriors blue and gold, to try to get under Green’s skin. Though, if that’s the plan, someone please remind Dellavedova to wear a cup.

4.) This Cavs team is hands down the most talented team in the franchise’s 46 years of existence. When they are clicking, they are a joy to watch. For much of the year, though, they didn’t click, so few people (myself included) gave them a chance against whoever came out of the West.

Somewhere during their dismantling of the Atlanta Hawks, though, the idea that the Cavs might actually have a chance against whichever team emerged from the Western Conference Finals started creeping out from the recesses of my brain. Had the Thunder taken Game 7 in Oakland, I would have proudly predicted the wine and gold to take their first ever NBA title.

But against the Warriors?

I do think the Cavs have a chance and I think the depth of this year’s team could give the Warriors some problems. Still, while this isn’t the same Cavs team that tried to turn last year’s Finals into a bruising cage match (and left having taken most of the bruises themselves), I think the Warriors will cap off their historic year by, for a second year in a row, winning in six.

C’mon, Cavs… Time to prove me wrong.