The Cavaliers’ Rotation: In Or Out?

It’s finally here. After months of waiting, questioning, wondering, and worrying, the playoffs have arrived Cavalier fans are hoping for something special. While defeating teams like the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs will undoubtedly be a daunting task, the Cavaliers have the talent to play with, and beat, any team in the league. But how to best use that talent? Which players should see the floor, and which should be on the bench, only to be used in case of an emergency? Here’s a look at each Cavalier’s chances of being part of the team’s playoff rotation.

Locked In

LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, Matthew Dellavedova, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert

These guys are locks. There’s absolutely no point in debating any of them. The only questions are things like who will get the most minutes out of Smith, Shumpert, and Dellavedova—likely something that is based on matchups—and if Lue will be willing to pull Irving for Dellavedova if the situation seems to require it. Shumpert has struggled this season, but his defense—and the Cavs’ lack of great depth on the wing—will keep him on the floor if he’s healthy, a relatively big if.

On The Outside

Jordan McRae, Dahntay Jones, and Sasha Kaun

Both Kaun and McRae have been  the definition of fine in their first seasons with the Cavaliers. Neither has seemed overwhelmed during their garbage time minutes, but neither has done anything to have the fans clamoring for more. The only way either man sees time in the playoffs is either in a blowout or due to several injuries, so let’s hope for the former. Of the two, McRae may have been slightly more likely to see the floor, considering the injuries to Mo Williams and Iman Shumpert, but the signing of Jones, who has played in 49 playoff games in his career, likely knocks McRae down a peg. Jones is what he is, a 35 year old journeyman whose been out of the league since last season. He won’t be rattled by the moment if called upon, but the Cavaliers really hope that they don’t have to do so.

Likely In

Channing Frye

Frye has cooled off considerably after a torrid start to his tenure with the Cavaliers, and is now shooting a much more human 37.8% from three, a bit below his career average of 38.6%. He’s also averaging just 16.2 minutes per game, his lowest total since the 2008-2009 season. Tyronn Lue also seems hesitant to play Frye alongside Kevin Love for any significant minutes due to both men having reputations as poor defenders. Despite all of this, it’s highly unlikely Frye isn’t a part of the playoff rotation. He’s as good a floor spacer as any big man in the league, and teams are unlikely to ignore Frye just because he has struggled for a few games. All shooters go through dry spells, even the best of them. The Cavaliers have also played well with Frye on the court, particularly on the offensive end. It’s possible he doesn’t get much time in a certain series due to a poor matchup, but he seems to have solidified his role as the Cavaliers’ third big man.

Likely Out

James Jones

After being a semi-regular member of the rotation last season, Jones has played in just 46 games this season, and just 19 since the New Year. Jones can still shoot it, averaging 40.4% from deep this season, but what he adds in spacing the floor he more than gives up in terms of defense and rebounding. In many ways Frye is a bigger and better version of Jones, and he’ll get the minutes, but it’s nice to know that Jones will be ready if the Cavs need him.

Mo Williams

Williams obviously isn’t healthy, and his reunion with the Cavaliers hasn’t gone the way either side would’ve hoped, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t have an impact on the team’s playoff run. Williams is still the kind of scorer who can get hot and carry a team for a few minutes, and he’s an absolutely luxury as a third point guard. If Irving or Dellavedova are in foul trouble, the Cavaliers can turn to Williams and know that they are still putting a legitimate point guard on the court. But if things go as planned, then Williams likely won’t see much time, if any.

Right On The Bubble

Timofey Mozgov

Timofey Mozgov is shooting 56.5% from the floor—61.5% since the All Star Break—while averaging 12.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes. He’s also averaging 2.0 turnovers, which is actually lower than his career average of 2.3 per 36. While Mozgov’s basketball demise has been somewhat overrated, it’s also true that the Cavaliers have been significantly worse with him on the floor, and that hasn’t changed as his shooting has improved. His defense has dropped off this season, and while the coaching staff tried to rebuild his confidence with a starting role, it has become increasingly obvious that they no longer have faith in him. If he can rediscover the confidence and aggression that made him such a force last year, Mozgov could still help against teams with traditional big men such as the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, and Miami Heat, but that seems less and less likely.

Richard Jefferson

Jefferson has been in the rotation for all but a few games this season, and he’s given the Cavaliers everything they could have realistically expected when they signed him. He’s a good outside shooter, still has some ability to create off the dribble, and always conducts himself like a pro. Two issues could put him outside the playoff rotation. One is his defense, which has been pretty bad all year, and the other would be Tyronn Lue simply deciding to give more minutes to the wing players ahead of Jefferson. Pat Riley has often said that in the playoffs, you play eight and trust seven. It’s hard to see Jefferson as one of the eight core rotation players in the postseason, but Shumpert’s injury lingering would make him a lock for some minutes.

Tyronn Lue has been juggling his rotation since he took over as head coach, and what looks likely today could be far different than what the team does tomorrow. Still, a starting lineup of Irving, Smith, James, Love, and Thompson seems likely, with Dellavedova, Shumpert, and Frye as the main pieces off the bench. Whether this lineup is enough to carry the Cavaliers to a championship is debatable, but there’s no doubt that it has the ability to make this playoff run a memorable one.