Podcast Episode 94: Good Charlotte, Average Week, Bad Kyrie, Potent Perceptions in Practice
2016-04-04https://soundcloud.com/ctb-5/podcast-episode-94-good
Nate analyzed the win over the Hornets, I analyzed the win over the Hawks, we piled on Kyrie as much as we could, we played a very long game of Potent Perceptions that focused on defensive-minded but still elite lineups around the NBA and LeBron’s incredible play of late.
We finished it off with some very long stories about having our perceptions biased by salesmen and women. Be warned: if you want nothing to do with Tom and Nate’s personal stories about salespeople, just end the podcast at the 1:28 mark.
If you reflexively defend Kyrie Irving maybe just skip this podcast entirely. Here’s your iTunes link.
I listen to the salesman stories too. LoL You guys are greenhorns! Always check the scam alerts from your local police facebook page. Check your BBB and google their company like this. Complaints on Business XYZ from local area or state. Tom you did good to stick to your guns on NOT signing anything. I always tell them that is my motto and if they don’t like it, they can leave but in a very nice voice. WE had a pesty and downright intrusive oil man hound us on oil rights from our property. He came to our house when… Read more »
Just finished listening. Tom, you are so good telling stories like that. That was hilarious! I think most of us have been the victim of a hard sell like that at some point. All you’re thinking is ‘just shoot me’.
Tom, you and your wife seriously need to watch ‘Tin Men’. After that experience, you’ll love it.
Still listening. Really, really good podcast. You guys hit the nail on the head on Kyrie. I am very concerned Lue will pander too much on Kyrie to the point I think we lose a playoff game . However, I think there is no way in Hell Lebron puts up with it. If Kyrie has another Hawks game where he doesn’t even recognize a pic Lebron is setting up for him in crunch time & leaves a runway open for opposing point guards, I don’t see Lebron putting up with it. I think it will get very in your face… Read more »
WOW… that was a crazy game. Roy Williams and the UNC guards blew that game. Had mismatches down low all game, but the guards couldn’t exploit them because they didn’t move the ball well enough or quickly enough around the perimeter. Credit to Nova’s ball pressure and fronting the post… but geez…
I still can’t believe Nova won… Jay Wright…. phenomenal coaching job. Nova has stud shooters… wouldn’t mind that Jenkins kid as the Cavs’ version of Draymond Green.
Villanova put on a defensive clinic. They were switching on every screen, and made every attempted pass to the NC bigs a chore. (heck, they made even perimeter passes risky) Villanova was great every game in the tourny, and they are the deserving champs. A really fun team to watch.
LOL that was a team basketball clinic both offensively and defensively! I agree… really enjoyed watching them. Honestly reminded me of Duke. Super smart, great shooters… not exactly overwhelming athleticism. But damn can they play…
When I saw them play against Oklahoma, I knew they win the championship. Their defense was stifling & nothing I have ever seen on a college level. Also they had a lot of upperclassmen .
I took it back to newest on top after a duel with Tom. We thumb wrestled over it, and we’re leaving it as is for now while we work with the developers to try to fix some of the issues, especially the comment sorting on replies.
This is perfect. This is what I had in mind all along.
This is the way it should be (sorry TP!)
Nice Tin Men shout out — it’s an early Barry Levinson movie, and it’s really worth watching. Go watch it. Some really funny scenes in that one.
WOW! What an amazing finish to the Championship game! Two unbelievable threes from each team! Cue the Crying MJ meme for the next week…
I’m trying to remember a more insane finish than this game. Anybody?
There have been many in the history of the tourny as a whole, but it’s the craziest in the championship game since NC State against Houston back in the day.
The nutty Northern Iowa / Texas A&M game from earlier this year is probably the biggest. Just an insane comeback/collapse.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2016/3/20/11274222/northern-iowa-texas-a-m-collapse-ncaa-tournament
My alma mater, Barton College, had a pretty crazy ending in 2007:
Yeah I’m watching. Pulling for Nova
Quite a win.
Anyone watching the title game? College basketball is really bad.
But it’s a tight game. Lots of drama.
College basketball is awesome. 100% effort 100% of the time. Imagine how good the Cavs would be if they played as hard as these guys?
The product on the court is less than awesome. They play hard. The drama is real. But the long shot clock. The terrible reffing and the lack of transcendent players makes it a poor product. IMO
I’m not really understanding how the replies to comments are being listed right now. Different comments are being listed differently and not necessarily according to chronological order. Conversations are a bit difficult to follow. I guess you decided not to do indent over replies, thought that usually helped in deciphering which reply is to which comment.
Agreed that comments are very confusing now. After a few replies, it’s hard to follow conversations that you aren’t actively engaged in.
Yeah. I like the comment section prior to re-branding CtB. Besides that I’m perfectly fine with all the other stuff.
Just needs a few more levels of nesting. Otherwise I like it much better than the old site.
running jumper’s reply to my reply was indented, but then I hit refresh to see if there were new comments and the indent went kaput.
What Cols said. A few nesting will do.
How about these comment settings? I changed order from Oldest (top) which is the old way. This makes it easier to follow replies. The limited nesting is because it looks bad on mobile displays.
Oh I see. I use my iPad so I don’t encounter much problems on nesting. Just a little confusing at times to see which reply is which. I guess don’t take my word for it, everyone should be able chime in so we can settle this for the long run..
Although you have to scroll to the top to start a new conversation now, right?
Finally got a chance to listen to the Pod… terrific stuff guys! Potent Perceptions is fast becoming a favorite of mine… Don’t personally subscribe to the “bench Kyrie” philosophy myself as I think it would do more harm than good at this late stage of the season… I still believe that Ky will figure things out.
Awesome window/gutter stories! You guys have the patience of Job to listen to those spiels for that long! I would have forcibly removed them from my property after the first 5 minutes… ;)
EG you are missing some serious debate down below in the comments section…
Or in this case now… above… ;)
Really, the biggest thing weighing down this team is Mozgov’s horrific play. The starting lineup with Mozgov is getting crushed by 16 points. The starting lineup with TT is crushing by 14 points.
If we are going to talk about benching someone who sucks, that’s the obvious choice. Lue should start TT in the playoffs for most games.
In general, you’re right that Moz has been a problem this season. (And they talked about that on the podcast.) As for starting TT, it depends on matchups and how much energy TT can sustain starting vs. coming off the bench. (That was an issue earlier this season when Lue started TT for a stretch of games.)
But also, to respond to your subtext, the fact that Mozgov has struggled doesn’t mean no one else has struggled. Those are some really negative stats for Kyrie that Tom posted downthread.
Mozgov has had some really good games in the last couple weeks. But in general, he and Kyrie have killed the team this year. If Lue starts both of them, he should pull both of them early and have them run with the second unit. Delly and TT should get more run with the first unit.
Mozgov is not on the Court when the Cavs are, routinely, giving up huge leads in the third and fourth quarters. Kyrie, however, is often on the Court when that is happening.
First question. Did you actually listen to the podcast? I’m seriously skeptical that you did, cause the entire point was that benching isn’t a punishment or some knee jerk reaction. It’s a way to best distribute minutes between three superstar players. I point to one of the greatest shooting guards of the 21st century, Manu Ginobili, as evidence of how it can work and get Kyrie, LeBron, and Love to each play at their best and maximize their talent. The fact that you didn’t mention any of my actual points made during the podcast (including Manu) make me think you… Read more »
No, I think tedious is accurate.
Nice rant. Considering that I live blog some of your podcasts I think you are way off base. But if it makes you feel better I enjoy this site and the commenters here. Even you.
So that’s a no, you didn’t listen? That’s what I thought. You’re arguing against some preconceived notion of what I said, rather than what I actually said.
Dude will not be able to compute that. Sorry Nate. I assure you he will dodge your post, or either concede to some of your points then hibernate at a time. And then in the right moment, when a game favors his opinion he’ll harp again on his fictional (dumb) narrative as he always do.
No, Cols for the vast majority of the time does NOT listen to the podcasts. Because he obviously doesn’t, I just scroll over his comments.
Tom, the thing I really don’t understand is when you talk to Mark Neal you sound like a normal Cavs fan who believes this team is really good and you don’t go out of your way to bash any of the star players.
But you get around Nate and you turn into this different person. It’s really odd. I’d like a CtP with Mark Neal Tom, not Nate Tom.
When I’m on with Mark, he sets the agenda and he asks the questions. It’s why we spend so much time talking about the elite teams: Warriors Spurs, and the jokes: 76ers, Lakers, Knicks, Nets. It’s not just a Cavs segment, it’s supposed to be a look around the NBA for the Dayton region (which is a college basketball town).
I don’t come in and say: “Hey Mark, I want to break down the different between how the Cavs pick and roll offense operates under Kyrie vs Delly”.
OK OK. Sorry.
Honestly, Tom, keep at it. I don’t ever find you too negative or unrealistically harsh. All those moments Cols says you aren’t being positive, I find refreshingly level headed. I’m so tired of the general talking heads on national shows. Either they are so sensationalized its nauseating or they don’t know anything about what is actually going on with the team. Everything isn’t sunshine and rainbows just because we have a good team.
And honestly, I was so hot during that atlanta game, it pained me to write as even-handed of a recap as (i think) I did. The guys on the blog have changed my perceptions of other players. And if I don’t watch those players enough, my instinct is to trust them. I’ve seen hundreds of hours of Kyrie. Nothing Nate or Ben or Windhorst or anyone else says is affecting how I feel about his game. If you listened to the pod, I gushed for, i dunno, a combined half hour about LeBron, TT, Frye. Nate gushed about Kevin Love.… Read more »
I definitely act differently on our pod than on Dayton radio. Some of it is the format, some is the agenda, some is because I’m trying to mimic the style of the producers of the show, and some is because I’m not really looking to generate discussion/debate – I’m looking to inform an audience that has 1/10th of my knowledge of the Cavs/NBA.
On CtB: half of the commenters are more plugged in than I am. Different audience, different format, I set the agenda, etc etc.
Is it really that surprising?
Yeah OK. I just want the optimistic Tom to show up on CtP
It pains me to point this out, but Irving>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Delly
Of course he is. No one disputes that he’s not a better play in a vacuum. Is he a better fit alongside LeBron at all times? Hell no. Most of the time? Not sure. It’s debatable. Any of the time? Yeah. It’s why he starts. https://vine.co/v/ij0b9TxlUIQ followed by this https://vine.co/v/ij0bXupEAIa You’re telling me Kyrie is better suited to make these plays? If so, I missed the games where they executed and got easy baskets in the half court. LeBron is NEVER going to sit in crunch time. Ever. LeBron >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Kyrie in talent, performance, stamina, and clout within the org.… Read more »
Tom, you just showed the most stubborn CtB poster that the earth indeed isn’t flat. But maybe Cols will think your footage of those Delly assists that KI doesn’t make is doctored. Kind of like some people still believe the moon landing was filmed in a studio.
Cols’s opinions don’t actually bother me at all. On the surface, they are totally reasonable. What’s unreasonable is the way he responds to our takes with these orthogonal platitudes. Like, I disagreed with Gordon, but he believes the same thing as Cols. But Gordon explains that he thinks it makes more sense for a player to work through his issues. He’s not disputing my point, that Kyrie was playing like garbage and probably sabotaging the team’s chances, he’s just saying he sees something more important in the alternative. Fair enough. Cols says “I guess I need to remind you guys… Read more »
I love this idea that I don’t change my mind Things I’ve been wrong about 1. Delly. I didn’t think he could actually be useful, but he went from sucky to good this year 2. TT. I didn’t think he could be good, but for this I mostly blame Mike Brown for trying to turn him into a jump shooter. Lue and Blatt have figured out that he should never shoot outside of 6 feet and it works for him. I’m against this idea that just because LeB is able to finish off a lob pass (and look at that… Read more »
Well don’t skimp on the “track record” resumes. Delly has been a huge factor in 2 finals wins. Delly also had a podium game against Chicago in the closeout game. Delly’s +/- per minute is higher than Kyrie’s this season. You said: “We do this every single week. CtPodcast overreacts to whatever the most recent sample is and fails to acknowledge the track record of the players involved.” So then issue you have is not with the analysis, but the length of time we allow trends to settle. OK. What if the trends we’re seeing “sub-par chemistry between LBJ and… Read more »
So let’s cherry pick Delly’s two (and only two) good games from last year’s playoffs and ignore how horrible he was the rest of the playoffs last year? He shot 34%, with 2.7 assists and 1.8 turnovers per game. That’s horrible. If we get that kind of production from our PG it’s over and we have no shot at beating the GSW/OKC/SAS.
Nate was wrong then and Nate is wrong now. If Nate had his way our starting lineup would be Delly, Casspi, CJ Miles, Anthony Bennett and Shaun Livingston.
Well I just named 3 games. Arguably 3 of the most important games in franchise history that you are trying to dismiss. Also, Delly’s not a box score stats guy. We’ve been through this. I don’t know where that final lineup comes from. Nate hated the Bennett pick and openly mocked the pick and Bennet’s game more than any human being I ever came across. Don’t recall his fondness for any of those other guys either. I thought the Cavs did themselves a disservice by not playing Casspi at all, killing any trade value he may have had. I wanted… Read more »
CJ Miles <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< JR Smith, who is awesome this year.
Nope. Kyrie>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>JR
I would like to add an additional point here: defenses play KI and Delly VERY differently on PnRs with LBJ. It really is silly to show a couple of successful PnRs from Delly and LBJ as evidence Delly is a better fit with LBJ. This stuff is complicated. Even with large samples of plus/minus data, it is tough. KI and Dellt play very very differently, they tend to play AGAINST different lineups, and THOSE lineups play different strategies that take away different things from them. My view: Kyrie NEEDS to play at the top of his game. If he doesn’t… Read more »
Yep. Way to pick up the mic after I dropped it. Did you also chug beers?
LOL. I did not – because I am at work.
PS:
Let’s be honest. You have never – ever – dropped the mic. Ever. You couldn’t stop talking if your life depended on it.
While I don’t believe that’s gonna be the narrative for the long run as Kyrie is still maturing and too talented not be able to be a great running partner with Lebron. I think, for Cols part anyway, is that Kyrie is still the best option in the future but we’re battling against time here as the playoffs are coming and Ky is failing to mesh with our best player so far. With regards to how teams play the both of them, you think defenses are allowing Delly to be a passer/set up guy and Kyrie be a scorer? Because… Read more »
Dude Delly destroyed the Bulls and the Hawks. He was amazing when the Cavs turned into a defensive juggernaut throughout last year’s playoffs.
A hobbled Irving shot better, had more assists, less turnovers, and more steals than a healthy (until the doughnuts) Delly did in the playoffs last year.
Kyrie’s offensive rating was 120 to Delly’s 95!!!!
Kyrie’s defensive rating was 104 to Delly’s 108!!!!
So better on offense and defense by both traditional and statty stats. Do you wish to revise your statement.
/drops mic, chugs beers
You said the Cavs have no chance to win against GSW with Delly.
They did twice and he was a major factor.
This season’s O Rating and D Rating paint a different picture.
Kyrie: 110.4 O Rating 104.8 D Rating.
Net Rating of 5.3
Delly: 109.5 O Rating and 99.3 D Rating.
Net Rating of 10.2
So, almost double.
But you know what. As much as a love “staty” stats. These aren’t the stats I’m looking for.
Oh! I found them.
Wow. So, not only is Delly’s net rating 5 points a game (or per 100 possessions) higher than Kyrie’s this season, but also LeBron’s rating is 20 points better WITHOUT Kyrie than with him, and 23 points better WITH Delly than without him.
Those are shocking disparities.
Nope. Golden State is historically great.
Cols, imagine a self-driving Porsche that keeps running off the road…
You also Cols’ed out at me early in the season for suggesting Golden State was better than the Cavs.
You build the offense around the Formula 1 car (LeBron), not around the Porsche (Kyrie). If you need to use the Cruze as the pace car, you do it.
Kyrie can score off the PnR. LeB is awesome, which is why this works with lesser players like Delly. So yeah, get Kyrie in there and the same stuff happens but he can also put the ball in the hoop himself.
Now recently Irving has been shooting horribly, but do you really think a good shooter like Kyrie is going to remain in a slump for long?
Nope. So you start Irving and bring Delly in off the bench when needed.
Cols, you’re missing the point by focusing on Kyrie’s shooting slump. Has Kyrie ever facilitated like that for LeBron in crunch time?
Thanks Phil. I noted in the atlanta recap that I didn’t really care that Kyrie was missing everything. I got upset when LeBron tried setting a screen for Kyrie in crunch time and Kyrie at first didn’t take it, LeBron tried again, and Kyrie ran into him. It was a lost possession. I brought it up in the podcast too: that it wasn’t Kyrie’s individual sucktitude that made me think he should have been benched: it was the way LeBron was doing everything short of organ donation to make sure the Cavs stayed alive, and Kyrie being out there was… Read more »
Love the discussion here about Kyrie and Delly. The only thing I’d like to point out is that I can’t remember LeBron EVER cutting that hard to the basket off a Kyrie PnR – especially the first one. I find it hard to believe that Kyrie would have just not passed LeBron the basketball for those two wide open dunks.
I think that until (and if) KI changes his game, he’s going to be a classic ‘good stats/ bad team’ guy. I hate that description, since it’s a BIll Simmons favorite (frankly, Bill Simmons himself is a classic ‘good stats/ bad team’ guy…and he’s just as oblivious about it as the players he mocks).
I thought KI was turning a corner last year, but if he did, he turned right around again this year.
Tom I really loved that upper clip. You see the intensity here being infectious. Lebron’s on the floor and he’s not looking for anyone to help him up. Delly is leading the way back to defense and Lebron is SO on board. This got me pumped because it’s a glimpse of playoff chemistry.
There has to be accountability out there. If you are not moving the ball, if you are not playing hard on defense, you get benched. No matter who you are. You want to win, you implement this. Coaching to players, everybody.
Great point guys on how the concept that you have to play your star, your more expensive player, no matter how bad he is playing is complete lunacy. Good organizations DO NOT run this way, as Nate points out.
The Cavs are a good organization and are doing just fine. They’ve assembled a team that made the Finals last year and will most likely do so again this year. They are a nice mix of youth and veterans with a very high upside.
LeBron deciding to show up again had nothing to do with organizational skill, unless you consider accidents of geography skill. Which you very well may based on your posts to date.
You should have a CavsTheTweets poll on whether Kyrie should start or come off the bench.
Listened to the first hour on my commute this morning. Had a chuckle when Tom referred to the podcast being long in the tooth right around the hour mark — less than halfway through the whole thing!
That anyone would consider having Irving come off the bench shows how far the analysis over here has fallen.
Analysis based on evidence is a horrible thing.
And the evidence is that Irving is a good player who had a bad week. You don’t choose to bench a guy because of a bad week. That’s knee jerk coaching at its worst.
Not a bad week, a bad season. Did you see Mike P. ‘s comment below about Pluto’s column and lineups?
Cavs chances at a ring rely on Kyrie buying in to an offensive system and playing defense with all his heart. Only way they’ll put themselves in a position against the Warriors where anything can happen.
Cavs should lose on purpose to keep Toronto gunning for the top seed and not resting players. Sasha Kaun! report to the scorer’s table.
Haha! Love it. Apparently, Sasha is the only Cav to have won a national championship in college. #Winning
Random question: you both mention MKG as somehow key to Hornets. I was surprised by that. He is solid role player, but have never been anything beyond that. Marvin Williams is basically same player, but bigger. Batum is also a better version of MKG.
Yep. MKG just isn’t a key player. He’s such an offensive zero that his defense can’t make up for it. He’s a poor man’s Tony Allen.
I didn’t mention MKG at all. Anyway Batum has pretty much filled MKG’s role this season.
You didn’t mention MKG’s name but when Tom said, ““When Kidd Gilchrist went out, I wrote them off.” You said, “Absolutley.” I took that to me you “Absolutely agreed that when MKG went out, you wrote them off.”
Sorry If I misunderstood that exchange.
I’d written them off long before that. Just agreed that the MKG injury didn’t help things.
All about the Cavs still starting the “big three” to not “hurt their egos”. However, I would pull Kyrie pretty quickly in the first and third Q’s and really run him a lot with the second unit.
Listened all the way for my commute and still so much to go… Still, I think I disagree with some of the big points about Kyrie. I don’t think he should come off the bench. Delly will lose some effectiveness playing primarily against other team’s starters. I don’t agree that he should be off the floor in crunch-time. He’s too much of a weapon, and his liability as a transition defender is mitigated in that situation. I think the last 5 game stats for Kyrie have been skewed by his health. He was sick for one game and he hurt… Read more »
As my daughter told me last week: “Dad, my excuses hurt!”
Even more reason Lue should have rested him in the second half.
Yep. No way should Kyrie come off the bench.
No way should Mr. 4th Quarter sit during crunch time.
Knee-jerk opinions because of one bad week are the worst part of CtB.
Cols complaining about knee-jerk opinions. Seriously?
It’s not one bad week. It’s a mediocre year for KI, since he has returned. Can you read that KI first appears at #12 in the top three player combos for the Cavs? Your comments sometimes are like still claiming the earth is flat.
If you notice, my opinions do not change from week to week or game to game, or even, like on this blog, from minute to minute.
Kyrei has been great in the past, there’s no reason to suspect that he’s suddenly trash. So thinking that Kryie should be benched or come off the bench or not play in crunch time considering his history of awesomeness is the very definition of knee-jerk opinion.
Although I don’t advocate trading Kyrie, there is legit reason to suspect why he’s suddenly playing trash (not to level of expectations is the proper word) as of late, namely being unhealthy for the most part of the season. That’s an obvious. And it’s not that he’s gonna be trash forever like what your mind expresses through understanding opinions of others. He’ll get trough this. Relax Cols, you’re panicking..
I’m not panicking. I’m not the one advocating benching Irving or sitting him in crunch time or any such nonsense. Those moves are panic moves.
The non panic move is to continue to play him because he will work through whatever problems he’s having.
Yes, the Cols opinions never change, not from week to week, game to game, or even based on new evidence. Flat earth is flat. Forever.
Consistency is not a virtue unless it correlates to something positive.
Knee-jerk opinions without even listening/reading are the worst part of Cols714.
well he was terrible, and now the excuses for his play are the he was hurt. The first thing is undeniably true, the second may be true, and given a lot of other signs that the Cavs were desperately trying to actually win the game (I get the regular season wins aren’t the end all be all) then it doesn’t make sense why Lue played him so many minutes in the 4th. he didn’t have it. The team couldn’t figure out how to run the offense with him in the 4th. He’s a minus defender. This was obvious to everyone… Read more »
I am going to listen to the podcast now, and don’t know if you reference Terry Pluto’s Sunday column on top Cavs lineups. Pluto updated the best three player combos assuming at least 250 minutes of playing time. The stats are per 100 possessions: James, Love, Shump: +22 James, Delly, Love +20.5 James, Love, Thompson +19.2 James appears on 6/7 of the top three combos, Love 4/7 and Delly 4/7. I am glad your summary mentions piling on Kyrie, since he first appears in the top combos at #12. James, Thompson, Irving +12.7. The worst combo is Irving, Moz, Love… Read more »
I can’t believe I made it to the end of Tom’s gutter estimate story. Now that is what I call a stem winder.
I would have paid the 3 grand. Not for the clean gutters but for the friendship with Gutterbot 900.
Had not heard the term “stem winder” before. Great colloquialism.
I LOVED the discussion on the gutters! You must be an awesome negotiator Tom! Gutters for only $3,000. The next podcast should hit the 3 hour mark!
haha. well, you were warned!
The thing I really enjoyed was hearing the give and take between you and your wife vis-a-vis the gutter sales pitch story because it made me think wives are the same the world over. We recently bought a new(ish) car. I first wanted to get a brand new car A, which cost X. My wife did the wife thing where she didn’t say no, but hemmed and hawed and raised the one concern that actually mattered (“I am not sure we can afford to spend that much”) and a bunch of smokescreen concerns apropos of nothing to act as red… Read more »