Dividing Up The Frontcourt Minutes

With the Cleveland Cavaliers set to open their season against the Chicago Bulls tomorrow night at the United Center, things are looking up for LeBron James and company. Kevin Love has returned to action. Anderson Varejao is healthy. Tristan Thompson has returned to the team after signing a five year $82 million deal, and is expected to play, Tuesday. LeBron James will also likely play after dealing with some back trouble for the past two weeks. While Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert are still out, the Cavaliers are beginning to gain the depth they had hoped to create this offseason.

The funny thing with professional basketball though, is that depth isn’t always that easy to manage. Part of the reason NBA players have been able to reach the highest level of play is the fact that they have the highest level of confidence in themselves. Show me an NBA player who doesn’t think they should be playing significant minutes, and I’ll show you someone who will soon be a former NBA player.

In the case of the Cleveland Cavaliers, they are blessed with a relatively deep and talented frontcourt. Kevin Love is an All-Star caliber player whose combination of elite rebounding, passing, and outside shooting are truly unique. Timofey Mozgov is far and away the Cavaliers’ best rim protector with the ability to play both as a roll man and in the post on offense, and the Cavaliers’ defense was significantly better upon his arrival from the Denver Nuggets in January. Tristan Thompson is an elite—sorry David—offensive rebounder and pick-and-roll finisher whose ability to switch onto perimeter players defensively was a big part of the Cavaliers’ postseason success. Anderson Varejao is still a high energy big man who has become an extremely skilled offensive player to go along with his own solid rebounding ability. Even newcomer Sasha Kaun has been described by general manager David Griffin as possibly a rotational player for the team. The question is, are the minutes there for each man?

It’s common to talk about the minutes of different players in vague terms without really thinking about the minutes available. The fact of the matter is that there are just 96 minutes of court time that are available to these men. While all five can play center or power forward, none can play down any farther. Last season, Love played 33.8 minutes per game, his lowest since his second year in the league, but still the most of any Cavalier big man.  Mozgov also started after he joined the team, averaging 25.0 minutes per game. Despite not starting, Thompson actually played a bit more than Mozgov at 26.8 minutes per game. Before tearing his achilles tendon, Varejao was the Cavaliers’ starting center, averaging 24.5 minutes per game. This adds up to 110.1 minutes per game, and that’s not even taking into account any time for Kaun. Furthermore, LeBron James will likely spend some time a power forward this season, and David Blatt has used James Jones almost exclusively as a stretch four since he joined the team.

So how does David Blatt manage the minutes for his big men? Whose minutes get cut? Who doesn’t play? This question may be surprisingly easy to answer. It starts with Varejao, who is likely the fourth big man in the Cavaliers’ rotation. Andy has looked solid in his return to the court, but there is simply no way that he plays anywhere near 24 minutes a game given his age and injury history. Another factor some would point to as a reason to play him less would be his negatively impact on the court last season, although that could be partly attributed to small sample size as well as the Cavaliers’ overall struggles. After all he did have a higher RPM than players like Chris Bosh, Zach Randolph, and Paul Millsap the prior season. No matter what, if the Cavaliers want Anderson Varejao healthy for the postseason, it simply makes sense to keep his minutes down as less time on the court means fewer chances for an injury to occur. Because of that it makes sense to cut Varejao’s minutes per game by just over 50%, and play him a rather conservative  12 minutes a game. This number should allow Varejao to stay sharp while also reducing his chances for injury. If Love and Thompson—both of whom are under contract for five more years and have less reason to push for more minutes—play slightly less at 33 and 26 minutes per night respectively, and Mozgov keeps his average at 25 minutes per game, that comes out to 96 minutes per night, exactly what the Cavaliers have to give.

Obviously there are still questions. When does LeBron play power forward? What about James Jones and Sasha Kaun? In the case of LeBron, it’s important that we remember that not only does he not like to play the four, but that play down in the post and having to bang with big men more often likely wouldn’t be great for his back, which seems to have become a chronic issue. Even if he’s no longer quite the freak athlete he used to be, there is no sign that James won’t continue to be athletic enough to play small forward for the duration of his career. While there is no doubt that he will play power forward at times, it is a strategy that the Cavaliers will likely only need to use sporadically, especially since a Love-Thompson front court allows the Cavaliers to match most small ball lineups defensively while still playing big.

James Jones has given the Cavaliers more than anyone really expected of him since he signed with the team prior to last season. He’s a tremendous outside shooter and locker room voice who competes at both ends of the floor. But an honest assessment would tell you that Jones probably shouldn’t be a regular member of the rotation. Despite trying hard, Jones is an enormous liability on the defensive end, lacking both the strength to guard power forwards and the quickness to keep up with perimeter players. When his shot is not falling, Jones is virtually unplayable, and a player like that is best used as a specialist used in certain situations, which tend to arise as a particular game is being played versus certain matchups. Finally, given his injury history, Varejao will likely be given the night off on a fairly regular basis—either due to coach’s decision or yet another injury—and Jones can slide into his spot, spacing the floor while playing alongside Thompson or Mozgov.

This still leaves Sasha Kaun. This is where the harsh reality of the NBA comes in. Before the season, one could reasonably argue the Kaun was the Cavaliers’ fourth big man in the rotation, ahead of Anderson Varejao. After a preseason in which Kaun averaged 2.7 points and 3.5 rebounds in 18 minutes per game, that hardly seems the case. Kaun has looked solid defensively, particularly around the rim, but he seems to be a mediocre rebounder and limited offensive player. While Kaun did post extremely high field goal percentages in Europe, he hasn’t quite found his rhythm around the rim as he adjusts to the NBA. That will likely improve somewhat, but for now Kaun seems somewhat similar to the player he is replacing, Kendrick Perkins. That isn’t bad for a team’s fifth big man, it’s just not good enough for  third big man on a contender. For now it seems likely that Kaun will get most of his minutes in blowouts and when another big man needs a night off.

Another important thing to consider is that the Cavaliers have 20 sets of back-to-back games this season, fifth most in the NBA. Given the health issues of some players as well as the team’s desire to make sure that everyone is peaking for the playoffs, it seems likely that the rotation could vary when the Cavaliers play consecutive nights. A fairly probably scenario would be something like Varejao not playing in the first night of the back-to-back, but playing 25 or more minutes the second night as one of Love, Mozgov, or Thompson gets the night off. As we’ve discussed Kaun or Jones will also likely get minutes these nights to give other big men some rest. This doesn’t mean that Kaun would play Kevin Love’s minutes if Love were to sit a game out. Rather Kaun might play ten to fifteen minutes while another big man, say Tristan Thompson, sees his minutes jump that night. This strategy could be used with any player to keep him both fresh and rested.

While all of this may seem like a bit of a convenient solution, it’s also a realistic one for the Cavaliers. In fact, it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Love average something closer to 30 minutes per game considering he will still be working his way back from injury early, and the Cavs will likely make sure he is both sharp and fresh for the playoffs. This would also allow some more leeway for different lineups, giving James some time to play brief minutes at power forward, or allowing Varejao or Jones a bit more run a times. While David Blatt will no doubt want to find a rotation that he likes, there is also no doubt that the minutes various players get will likely fluctuate night to night.Regardless, having a surplus of quality players competing for minutes is something every title contender needs. This was never more apparent than during the NBA Finals, when the Cavaliers were decimated by injury and David Blatt wasn’t willing to play veterans such as Kendrick Perkins, Shawn Marion, Mike Miller, and Brendan Haywood. And who could blame him? The Cavaliers were carrying dead weight at the end of their roster. Now, with the return to health of Love and Varejao and the addition of Kaun, the Cavaliers seem to have a frontcourt that is both deep and diverse. That alone could make all the difference this season as the Cavaliers try to take care of the unfinished business of winning an NBA Championship.