Just a few thoughts in the settling dust
2009-06-14
First off: Adande absolutely killed it in today’s Dime. Just a wonderful piece, especially written on deadline in all the noise and emotions that must go with players you’ve known that long getting a championship. Hollinger’s Ariza piece is sensational, as well.
Pretty much the only emotional solace that any Magic fan can take from this game is that it pretty much put to bed any notions of this being a fluke championship for the Lakers-one legitimate win in Orlando wins that series for the Lakers in pretty much any scenario, and they got that tonight. And the only two blowouts in the series went to the Lakers.
Game 2 is tough and Game 4 is downright heartbreaking, but the Magic would absolutely have lost with only one of those, and even with both they’d still be staring at having to take one of two in Staples. In a sealed environment, I think the Lakers take this one in 6 the vast majority of the time if you play it 10,000 times. The Magic blew a win to take it down to five, and didn’t capitalize on a 50-50 shot to take it to seven. There was a puncher’s chance that the Magic could beat the Lakers four times, but no chance for them to beat them five.
And this was the Lakers’ year. Windows in the NBA are 1-3 years long, and the Lakers made the most of their 2nd shot to be a championship team. Now Odom, in all likelihood, leaves this off-season, and while I’m not sure anyone really knows just how much Odom helps or hurts that team, I think his loss is going to hurt them very, very badly-there are so many amazing things he does on a basketball court. Fisher gets that much older, Bynum is Bynum, et cetera. With Gasol and Bryant suiting up every night, they could absolutely repeat, but I personally don’t see them having another mid-60 win juggernaut-type season in them, although that’s also possible if Bynum can step up and Kobe can keep from declining.
As for the Magic, I have them as my championship favorites next year provided they can re-sign Turkoglu and the Cavs don’t make a move. Nelson coming back will be huge, and their only limiting factor-Dwight’s propensity not to assert himself as the best player on the floor-certainly doesn’t hurt them against the Cavs, whom he murdered. And there’s also the chance Dwight comes back with some simple post moves and goes into the 25-27 PPG range, although I wouldn’t bank on that.
There’s a lot to like about this Laker team if you can get past everyone’s pathological need to make everything they do well a function of Kobe, up to and including Dwight Howard missing free throws and the Magic allowing a clean three-point look with one possession left. Gasol might be my favorite non-Cav to watch go to work in the league-he’s pretty much single-handedly keeping post moves alive. Lamar Odom is an amazing human being who happens to play basketball at a ridiculously high level. Derek Fisher is as class as they come. Sasha Vujacic didn’t score a point in the finals. And Kobe the actual person, once you can separate him from the myths that other people surrond him with, is a cool guy who’s worked as hard at this game as any other human being and absolutely deserved a championship as the alpha dog.
And this team bucked some trends-they play offense, play it at a fast pace, and unapologetically outscored people on their way to the championship. They brought Lamar off the bench. They killed the “championship team’s dont have weird body language in 2nd-round games” crap that plagues elite teams for entire seasons before they actually play the championship games, which it turned out the Lakers were pretty good at.
The Lakers had to produce this year, and they did. Next year it’s our backs to the wall with Z reaching old age, our expirings expiring, and of course, the Summer of Doom looming. Let’s hope we can seize the opportunity.
As for Shaq, we don’t give up anything we want basketball-wise, so I don’t have a problem with it, although I wonder what we do with Z, think he’s risky, and think there’s a chance he could take away our strengths while he shores up our weaknesses. Good to see that Ferry isn’t sitting pretty, though.
And now the 0ff-season begins. It’ll be fun. Stay tuned, campers.
What I hate about the way this season ended is that it bodes so badly for next year. Every other one of the NBA’s top 4 teams has an injury-related reason why they could conceivably come back much better next year. The Lakers could have Bynum returning to top-5 center form (not to mention the emergence of the very young Ariza as a super role-playing wing in the mold of James Posey). The Magic have a returning all-star PG in Nelson, which shores up the only (sort-of) weakness in their lineup, plus a more experienced Courtney Lee. The Boston Celtics… Read more »
I like the idea of giving up Wallace and Sasha for Shaq. Our offense is already really slow, I don’t think he’ll have any real effect on it. Although I would really love to get Odom. It may be a long shot, but I think putting him on a team that, I think, has more discipline, will stop his on-again/off-again production and make him a consistent player.
I’ve also heard that Tyson Chandler might be available. I would love to see that happen, too. Assuming he’s all healed up and ready to go, of course.
The Magic weren’t hitting the 3 that well at all against Philly or Boston and still took care of them. The Cavs were the worst defense (at least perimeter defense) that the Magic saw in the playoffs. I know they ranked near or at the top in those categories in the regular season, but the 76ers were dead last in perimeter defense in the regular season and Orlando couldn’t get an open 3 to save their lives against them. Playoffs are a different animal. That, and the Cavs had no interior presence to stop Howard, forcing the double team which… Read more »
I absolutely agree that Gasol is keeping post moves alive but equal credit must also go to Yao & Al Jefferson as both of those guys can give the business to anyone, not to forget Duncan also though he’s on his last legs. Ultimately though, the quality of big men in the league at present is horrible, putbacks & dunks do not constitute an offensive repertoire, I’m looking at you David Lee, Joey Pryzbilla, Greg Oden, Jason Thomson, Eric Dampier, Joachim Noah, Sammy Dalembeurt, Nene, Tyson Chandler….. I think you see where I’m going with this. God bless Hakeem.
@kj… do you have stats on which Magic players were taking open 3s in which series? I wonder about that… they did get plenty of 3s in the Finals, and many were open, but I wonder how many were open for Alston in particular. I do think the Lakers made an effort to close harder on Lewis, Turk, and Pietrus. That said, they cooled off. It happens. I think with a healthy Nelson they really could have challenged the Lakers, because PG defense is the Lakers’ primary weakness. If Howard develops on offense, though: takes care of the ball, is… Read more »
[…] Looking at 2009-10: “As for the Magic, I have them as my championship favorites next year provided they can re-sign Turkoglu and the Cavs don’t make a move. Nelson coming back will be huge, and their only limiting factor-Dwight’s propensity not to assert himself as the best player on the floor-certainly doesn’t hurt them against the Cavs, whom he murdered. And there’s also the chance Dwight comes back with some simple post moves and goes into the 25-27 PPG range, although I wouldn’t bank on that.” [John Krolik/Cavs the Blog] […]
if you want facts i got one for you. the magic beat the cavs in 6 games. they are a better basketball team than the cavs. lebron is a truly phenomenal player, but the rest of the team is crap. mo included. im sure they will make some deals and he’ll get a ring eventually, but with this group they are going nowhere. i know that hurts to hear, but all my teams suck now save the magic too so i know the feeling.
@synde & the dude haha! let’s see, we could look at stats that i posted, which are FACTS or take your guys’ opinion. which shall we do? are you guys seriously suggesting that the magic didn’t get open 3’s against the lakers and plenty of them? yet, i’m the one who should ‘”take the blinders off.” hi-larious! take a look at those stats i posted again and then tell me again how CLEARLY better the lakers were…puhleeze. the magic won the EC for one reason and lost the finals for one reason: 3-point shooting. oh, wait actually two reasons! i… Read more »
Yeah, I should comment that three-point shooting is predicated on rhythm, and if you’re being taken out of your rhythm by having defenders like 7-0 Gasol, 6-10 1/2 Odom, 6-8 Ariza, 6-8 Walton, and 6-7 Bryant running at you instead of West, Williams, Gibson, Pavlovic, and Wally World, it’s tough to suddenly find your rhythm when you do have an open three. That explains the Magic’s lower 3-pt percentage in the Finals in a nutshell.
Jerry Buss has always paid up to keep his championship teams together. Ariza is an LA native who played high school and college ball here. Odom has said he’ll take less money to stay here, and he’ll also only consider teams that have a nearby beach and sunny weather. So, that leaves the Clippers and the Heat as his alternatives. Reasonable contracts for these two would be 3 yrs/$9 million per for Odom and 3 yrs/$6mm per for Ariza. And if someone offers Trevor a little more in years and/or salary, then Buss will either match it or come close… Read more »
and by the way, did you ever think that maybe the magic’s shooting “came back to earth” because they were playing a much better team in the finals than the ecf? yeah didn’t give that any thought did you? fact is, the better team wins a 7 game series 99% of the time. and guess what, the cavs only lasted 6. marinate on that for a bit.
kj, seriously? the cavs are the favorites? that “jump-shooting” team you talk about as being “who we thought they were” absolutely worked the cavs this year. just give credit where credit is due. the cavs were EXACTLY “who we thought they were”. Lebron, and a bunch of regular guys. that, my friend, won’t get you past a “jump-shooting” team, or the celts; let alone the championship. your team didnt make the finals. take the blinders off, look at it from a basketball fan’s perspective and not a cavs fan, and voila! the cavs are still 3rd best in the east.… Read more »
With how high of a priority and the kind of contract that Ariza is going to get, I don’t see the Odom math working anymore, even if he takes a paycut. And if both of them come back, I think the Lakers absolutely stay at the championship level.
I don’t know why you think Odom is as good as gone. He’s said repeatedly this year that he’ll take less money to stay with the Lakers, and I don’t know why he’d do that if it was his plan to bolt. Of the two players I would say it’s more likely that Ariza might split, but there aren’t that many teams who could offer him more than the MLE, which I’m sure the Lakers are prepared to offer him. Odds are good the Lakers will pay what it takes to keep both players anyway, simply because Buss has never… Read more »
Helllloooooo Cleveland Fans !!!
We are all witnesses to…
…THE 2009 NBA CHAMPION “LOS ANGELES LAKERS”
Haha, this blog is funny. Too bad I’m not a wagering man. If I were, how much would you like to bet Odom remains a laker? How much would you like to bet that Boston and Cleveland remain favorites in the East even if they sign Turk? You don’t know your own team well enough. Wasn’t your biggest gripe against Kobe that his style didn’t translate to playoff success? Eat it. The only reason I even came here is because you’re on the TrueHoop banner above. Do you even watch the sport? You don’t know your own team well enough… Read more »
here’s some stats that i think prove my point. the magic shot their asses off against us and then they came back down to earth. check these out: Magic: ECF 103.7 PPG, 214/444 FG, 48%, 62/149 3PT, 41.6% 3PT, 132/179 FT, 75% FT, 12.7 TO, 19.3 AST, 38.2 REB Finals 91.2 PPG, 161/376 FG, 43.5%, 38/115 3PT, 33.3% 3PT, 96/139 FT, 69% FT, 14 TO, 18.4 AST, 38.2 REB Cavs, ECF: 101.2 PPG, 219/485 FG, 45%, 42/130 3PT, 33.3% 3PT, 127/170 FT, 73% FT, 11 TO, 18.7 AST, 37.7 REB Lakers, Finals: 100.6 PPG, 190/416 FG, 46%, 32/86 3PT, 33.3%… Read more »
the celtics, an old team, will be a year older. to put them as the number one contender defies logic. and john, the magic as the favs? why? they are exactly what every basketball observer thought they were. a jump-shooting team. when a jump shooting team gets hot ( iirc, they shot almost 49% from 3-pointland from game 6 of the celtics series to game 6 of the cav series) they look great. when they don’t (hello laker series!) they get beaten. that and as windy pointed out in the PD the other day, howard goes out of his mind… Read more »
Obviously you have to put the Celtics back up top as the #1 or #2 contender for the championship. Espcially considering how well they match up with teams like Orlando and LA. The Cavs are the biggest, and may be the ONLY, obstacle I see for a healthy Celtics roster next year, barring father time’s effect on the big three.
If all I’m giving up for Shaq is Wallace and Pavlovic, I do it in a heartbeat. The biggest concern I have is one that’s thus far been unspoken – can Z effectively come off the bench? He’s a rhythm shooter, so will not starting disrupt his ability to score? I do think it’s worth the risk to find out, though I’d rather have Amare. I think that’s more of a possiblilty than people are mentioning because Amare’s already mentioned wanting to go to NY. If Phoenix thinks they can’t keep him, they’re going to have to trade him soon…