Northwest Division Preview

[Editor’s Note: This is the second installment in our annual six part series of division previews. EvilGenius led things off with his stellar Pacific Division Preview and Cory Hughey is at bat today with a breakdown of the Northwest Divison. Key to every team in this series will be the teams’ additions, subtractions, storylines, a prediction of how far they’ll go this season, and a new wrinkle for this year…a spotlight on a player we’d love to have and a player we love to hate from each team.]

The Northwest Divison will probably be the least competitive division in the league, not that winning your division really matters anymore other than a hoisting a banner and printing thousands of tee-shirts that will be on the clearance section of NBA.com two months later. The Thunder at full strength are the only team with a punchers chance of getting to the Conference Semi-Finals or beyond. The Jazz are ready to break out of their cocoon, and could threaten to grab a late playoff seed. It gets ugly after them as the Nuggets, Blazers, and Timberwolves are all headed to lottery land. 

Denver Nuggets

Additions: Emmanuel Mudiay (draft), Nikola Jokic (draft), Nick Johnson (Houston), Joey Dorsey (Houston), Will Barton (re-signed), Jameer Nelson (re-signed)

Subtractions: Ty Lawson (Houston)

Storylines

1. Who will be on the roster after the All-Star break? I assume the only players who won’t be discussed during trade talks are Nurkic and Mudiay. For contenders looking to add a player to put them over the hump, few teams will be as willing to move talent in their prime as Denver.

2. After the trade dust settles, will they challenge Boston for the biggest draft war chest in the league? They are already owed protected picks from Portland, Houston, and Memphis (via Cleveland). Denver also has the right to swap first round picks with the New York, with no protections. If the Knicks win the lottery, Denver will be making the pick thanks to the Melo deal.

Player I’d Love to Have: Jusef Nurkic. He’s probably the only player on the Nuggets roster they flat out wouldn’t trade, and he’s the reason Timofey Mozgov is a Cav today. Nurkic was third at the pivot last season in DRPM, and he makes $8 million per year less than the rotating cast underneath Varejao’s fun hair. If there was a redraft of the 2014 draft today, he’d go third at the latest.

Player I love to Hate: Take a moment out of your day for this one. Clear your mind. Take a deep breath. Now slowly exhale. Relax and think about that yoga jazz. Say an ‘om’ or two. Are you relaxed? Good. Now take the peaceful serenity you’ve just experienced and digest the fact that coming into this season JJ freaking Hickson has made $22 million in his career. Don’t throw your phone. It will cost a weeks’ wages or more to replace. Don’t smash your magic mouse either. Those suckers are $50 a pop if you’re lucky. Glass breaking. Glass breaking always soothes a rage, and you’ve always hated your girlfriend’s stupid coffee mug with the cat on it. First, put your shoes on. Then take one last look of hate at her ridiculous cup. Now, smash it on the floor and seethe in anger for a moment. Next, take your lady friend’s cat and place it on the table. Take a picture of the cat and broken mug with your phone (Good thing you didn’t smash your phone). Text it to your girlfriend, and blame the cat.

Prediction: 34-48 or 20-62

I kind of like the Nuggets, because in a way I feel bonded with their fan base by being humiliatingly ditched by a star. Their secondary logo with the pick axe is an Eyes Wide Shut fun fest of complimentary colors, simplicity with local ties, and the threat of violence. It’s nearly perfect. If they built a world class amusement park within an hour of Denver, I could totally live there. My only requirements to live in a city are that they have good beer, an NBA team and top shelf roller coasters. Denver hits two out of three. If you were curious, the only NBA cities that hit all three are Los Angeles, Orlando, Charlotte, Boston and Cleveland.

If the Nuggets don’t trade Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, and Danilo Gallinari, I could see them being a competitive late lottery team that falls short by a couple games. Mudiay’s size and athleticism really intrigues me. He has a better shot at being a star than Russell. Nurkic could take another step and become a top-40 or so player. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be against them blowing it all up. The top four in the West aren’t going anywhere anytime soon and you can always sell the future to a fan base for a couple years, especially when they are mile high.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Additions: Karl-Anthony Towns (draft), Tyus Jones (draft), Nemanja Bjelica (draft rights), Damjan Rudez (Indiana), Kevin Garnett (re-signed)

Subtractions: Chase Budinger (Indiana), Gary Neal (Washington)

Storylines

1. Do they make some moves for an unlikely playoff push? The organizational mandate after the Love trade was that they wanted to end their decade of rebuilding. They have a lot of potential trade chips on the roster. With the drafting of Towns, Pekovic and Dieng are moveable. Rubio still has fans around the league. Bennett is… nevermind.

2. Does Kevin Garnett choke one of his teammates? If I was a gambling man As my descent into full blown gambling addiction matures, I’ve began contemplating odds on just about everything. Just for fun, I’ve set the opening odds on which teammate Garnett will physically assault, with the favorite being Shabazz Muhammad (3/2) and the long shot being Nikola Pekovic (50/1). I would definitely pay more to watch Pekovic and Garnett fight in locker room than I ever would for some crummy boxing PPV. I’m also going to set the over/under on number of times this season I get blackout drunk and shed a crocodile tear while watching Andrew Wiggins Vines at 4.5. I kind of like the over.

Player I’d Love to Have: Andrew Wiggins. Now that Love is signed longterm, the fear that the Wiggins trade could be the next highlight on the Cleveland failure package is gone. That being said, Wiggins going to be an absolute witch for a decade on the wing, capable of guarding four positions, and his offensive growth will be the evil sprinkles on top. If nothing else, Drew will be MKG with a decent jumper. That’s his floor. The primary reason I was against the deal is that LeBron is really a PF, and as he loses athleticism, he’ll play in the post more often. I saw Love as a great luxury, and that small forward will be a need for the cash strapped Cavs in the near future.

Player I love to Hate: Anthony Bennett. It’s not his fault Chris Grant drafted him first overall. People lose sight of the fact that he was universally projected as a top five pick in a draft without a clear cut pecking order at the top. At least he had a productive summer for team Canada. I’d like to see him in a functional organization before I admit that he’s a lost cause. Dallas is absolutely devoid of young talent, and if Carlisle can’t fix him, then I’ll call him a bust. Why hasn’t that trade happened?

Prediction: 28-54

A healthy Rubio, along with the addition of Towns, and Wiggins’ natural maturation makes me want to believe that they can take a step towards relevance. Of any of the lottery teams, they have the most intriguing young core. Wiggins and Towns have the potential to be the foundation of an elite defense. Garnett, Tayshaun Prince and Andre Miller are getting 401k checks this season to mentor the young team.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Additions: Cameron Payne (draft), Enes Kanter (re-signed), Kyle Singler (re-signed)

Subtractions: Perry Jones (Boston), Jeremy Lamb (Charlotte)

Storylines

1. Will Durant’s upcoming free agency be a distraction? LeBron’s free agency hysteria happened before Twitter fully broke out of its shell. What Durant does next July will be a daily question for a team that has more questions going forward than concrete answers.

2. NBA lore is littered with college coaches who couldn’t cut it in the NBA. It’s a completely different game, and the coach doesn’t have nearly the power over the team that he did in college. Will first time NBA coach Billy Donovan be able to handle the NBA circus? We’re talking about a guy who took a job with the Magic and backed out the following day. The Thunder will have more outside noise this year than anyone. Donovan will also be coaching Saint Weirdo. Every NBA coach Waiters has had thus far has been fired the following year.

3. Will the Thunder be remembered as the dynasty that never was. During the 2011 Finals, it seemed as though they had the youth and core to be an all-time team. Four seasons of bad injury breaks later, and it could all implode. If anything, they are the blue print for why the Love deal was necessary. You never know when your title window will close.

Player I’d Love to Have: The only answer is Durant. If Andy takes one for the team and retires after this season, the Cavs would be below the anticipated $89 million salary cap, and thus eligible to receive sign and trade players. Love rejoins Westbrook in OKC and Durant, LeBron and Kyrie eviscerate the league for the next six seasons. If Durant is determined to leave OKC, Love is as good of a replacement as they could realistically hope for. I’m just being greedy.

Player I Love to Hate: Dion Waiters. You can’t truly hate something, without loving it first. I hate that I believed in Dion so much. I hate that I burned $100 on a Dion Waiters throwback jersey that’s buried in the former Cleveland players graveyard in my closet. I hate that he and Kyrie couldn’t make it work. There’s a part of me that still thinks he’ll become a gem. There’s another part of me that thinks he’s fundamentally flawed, and he’ll either be playing in Europe in two years or he’ll own a carwash in Philly.

Prediction: 65-17 Eliminated in the Western Conference Finals

Durant and Westbrook are the best combo in the league, and they are flanked by Ibaka, who is an albino alligator asset who can stretch the floor and protect the rim. If all three are healthy during the playoffs, they could win the title. I see them having the best record in the league and dropping to the Clippers in a tight Western Conference Finals. If Durant leaves, the dominoes will drop. Westbrook will scoot to LA the following summer and a page one rewrite of franchise will begin. I’m leaning toward Durant re-signing for no other reason than I can’t see him walking away from Westbrook and Ibaka. This isn’t Aldridge leaving Portland. Sometimes the grass is only greener on the other side of street because your neighbor is a raging alcoholic who plays scratch-offs all day on his porch and doesn’t pick up his dog’s excrement.

Portland Trail Blazers

Additions: Pat Connaughton (draft), Al-Farouq Aminu (Dallas), Gerald Henderson (Charlotte), Noah Vonleh (Charlotte), Mason Plumlee (Brooklyn), Ed Davis (Lakers)

Subtractions: LaMarcus Aldridge (San Antonio), Wesley Matthews (Dallas), Nicolas Batum (Charlotte), Robin Lopez (New York), Steve Blake (Detroit)

Storylines

1. Will they be the worst team in the West? Four of their five starters from a year ago are gone, and none of the scabs replacements come close to the guy they are replacing.

2. Is Lillard a top-five fantasy player this season? He’s going to have a Westbrook-like usage rate this season, and he’ll exert zero effort on defense. 30 points per game is in play this year for Lillard.

3. Will Paul Allen say screw it and fire Neil Olshey for losing the roster, and let up and coming Portland comedian Ian Karmel and his roommate Ron Funchess run the organization? Mandatory mustaches for players? Wrestling themed uniforms? The leagues first nacho cannon? Why not? They were two of my favorite Kibitz Room comedians and the fact that there wasn’t a reality show set at their apartment is a crime against humanity. NBA TV is always looking for content and they could right that wrong airing the zany antics of Karmel and Funchess as they rebuild the franchise into a real life Jack in the Box commercial.

Player I’d Love to Have: Maurice Harkless. He was buried on Orlando’s bench last season, but I low-key wanted the Cavs to deal for him this offseason. In the current NBA, you can’t have enough versatile wings, and Harkless posted a 0.66 DRPM. He’s got a 7′ wingspan and decent athleticism. His career 3P% of .303 isn’t great, but you’d think it would improve with the attention LeBron, Love and Kyrie attract.

Player I love to Hate: Chris Kaman for no other reason than he looks like Erick Rowan, who wasn’t deserving of being pushed in the Wyatt Family.

Prediction: 18-64

Maybe Vonleh taps into his pre-draft potential. Maybe Plumlee’s flashes of brilliance become a feature attraction. Maybe Aminu scores 20 points in a game this year. That’s a sad list of maybes, and maybes don’t make gravy. It’s going to be rough year for one of the best fan bases in the league. They still have an All-Star caliber player, but having one isn’t nearly enough in the nuclear arms race of the West. We’ve experienced the affect of losing a star player and receiving nothing in return and it was brutal. At least they have funky donuts and great beer.

Utah Jazz 

Additions: Trey Lyles (draft), Raul Neto (draft rights), Tibor Pleiss (draft rights), Joe Ingles (re-signed)

Subtractions: Jeremy Evans (Dallas)

Storylines

1. Will they grab a playoff spot?  After the All-Star break the Jazz went 19-10, and posted the best Defensive Rating in the league giving up only 94.8 points per game.

2.  Will Gobert win Defensive Player of the Year? He held opponents to shooting 40.8% at the rim. Just for some context, perceived future superstar Andre Drummond’s opponents shot 48% at the rim.

3. Will Derrick Favors pass Mike Conley as the guy proclaimed to be the most underrated player in the league? He posted a superior RPM than Blake Griffin and Kevin Love last season. His contract also looks like an absolute bargain (four years, $49 million), when you see the figures that Tristan Thompson has turned down. The Jazz would start doing Fireball rotgut whisk-schnapps promotions before they would trade Favors straight up for Thompson.

Player I’d Love to Have: Rudy Gobert. There’s no where near enough Jameson in my apartment for me to delve into the players Chris Grant could have selected during his tenure on the rusty throne. Gobert was available when the Cavs selected Russian party boy, and current Brooklyn Net, Sergey Karasev.

Player I love to Hate: Trey Burke for no other reason than he’s from Columbus and he went to Michigan. I don’t have a deep visceral hatred of Michigan that most Buckeyes do. It’s too far away for me to really hate them. Living in Youngstown, I have to deal with Methadone County (Mercer County) Pennsyltuckians on a daily basis. I hate Western PA more than Ted Cruz hates dopamine.

Prediction: 45-37 Eliminated in the first round

I’ve only driven through nuclear testing areas of Utah, but I’ve heard nothing but good things about Salt Lake City. The Jazz’s talent is home grown and they are in a much better spot than most of the cosmopolitan NBA teams.