Grading the Haywood Trade Options

Friday, we discussed the ins and outs of the Brendan Haywood contract and the assets it could garner. “It’s Gold,” I noted, as the team which receives Haywood can immediately waive him for no money, or even trade him again to a team with cap room to receive a sizable exception (who can then waive him or trade him again). Haywood’s contract is going to get passed like a giant tub of popcorn at an Inside Out matinee.

As we discovered yesterday, the Cavs cannot receive players back in any sign-and-trade deals because they are over the luxury tax apron. This means the Cavs have four options with regards to Haywood.

1. Release Haywood to save Dan Gilbert at least $30 million in payroll and luxury tax payments.
2. Trade Haywood for a $10,522,500 trade exception to be used at some point later in 2015-2016. This gives Cleveland much less flex flexibility than does trading Haywood this summer when his contract can be combined with other players’ and they can take back up to $13.25 million in salaries with Haywood’s contract alone.
3. Hold on to Haywood and trade him sometime after Dec. 15th, when players signed during the summer of 2015 can be traded. This is the option I’m sure Haywood would enjoy, as he’d be payed around a third of his $10 million contract.
4. Trade Brendan Haywood for a player or players currently under contract. Those players have to have salaries totaling approximately $7-$13.25 million dollars. Also, the Cavs only have this year’s first round pick, a bunch of future second rounders, and a 2018 first rounder to bargain with. Ted Stepien, eat your heart out.

So lets explore some possibilities for option four, with our standard CtB grading system. Please note that salaries are approximate and based on this year’s salaries, which could be slightly different from next season’s.

Dwyane Wade; salary $16.1 million: Jacob Rosen at WFNY debunked this idea yesterday, but I’ll reiterate. To join the Cavs, Wade would either have to opt out of his $16.1 million dollar deal, and then sign for Cleveland’s $3.373 million exception, or the $1.5 million veteran’s minimum. That’s not happening. The other option would be for Wade to opt in to his contract, and then for the Cavs to engineer a trade for his large contract.

The Cavs would have to send about $2.4 million more worth of salaries over to Miami to make the trade math work. They’d have to be creative about how they find that $2.4 million, since no player on the roster, besides Mike Miller — which would be a cruel bit of irony — makes around that amount. Matthew Dellavedova could be signed-and-traded (the Cavs can trade away such players, but just can’t receive them). Joe Harris and this year’s two signed draft picks could all be packaged together, 30 days after the draft.

So yeah, Dwyane Wade is just trolling Pat Riley with the possibility that he’s going to the Cavs, and I’m sure Riles is just rolling his eyes. Grade: Troll Doll.

Avery Bradley and Evan Turner, Celtics; salary $10.5 million: their salaries fit the bill, but Bradley shoots 35% from three, and Turner 27%. The Cavs can do better. Plus, why would Cleveland want to give up a draft pick to help the Celtics clear cap room. Grade: Arby’s. You’ll eat it if there’s nothing else, but you’d better be stuck in the middle of nowhere.

Jarret Jack and Alan Anderson*, Nets; salary $7.5 million: They fit the the bill as a playmaker and a shooter, but with Jack at 31 and Anderson at 32, their better days are behind them, and I’d be shocked if Brooklyn wants to keep them on the books. Jack shot terribly from three last year (27%), and Anderson is only a 35% three point shooter in his career. Plus, we’ve been on the Jack coaster before, though I would be able to make Todd Bridges jokes every game, again… Grade: Iron Dragon: one of Cedar Point’s weaker coasters. Born in the 80s, and only worth riding if all the other lines are interminable. *Note: Alan Anderson has opted not to renew his player option and is now a free agent.

Marvin Williams and Matt Barnes, Hornets; salary $10.4 million Would probably take a future first or a swap at some point with Charlotte, but Williams would have spelled ‘Bron for sure in the finals at the three, and can stretch the floor at the four with a 36% three point percentage. He’s 29. He’s an average defender at best, and a below average rebounder, but he’s not a Shawn Marion type liability as a jump shooter. Barnes is a tenacious defender with a very solid 3.17 RPM last year, but he’s also 35 and his shooting fell to 27% from three in the playoffs. He’s only on the hook for one more year, but I’m not sure how much he has in the tank. He also tends to foul hard and cause static on the court, for good or ill. Also, note that Charlotte can’t reacquire Haywood till after July first. Grade: Lukewarm Iced Tea (might still be good if you add ice cubes from LeBron’s liquid nitrogen rejuvenator).

Gerald Henderson*; Hornets, salary $6 million. Gerald could replace Marvin Williams in this deal. Henderson would be a fantastic finisher on the break, is a solid defender (1.08 dRPM), but only has a career 33% three point mark, and was 31% last year. He has a little bit of wiggle and a lot of hops left, and is a decent passer with a low turnover rate, but he’d definitely take a first rounder to pry him from the Hornets, and maybe not even then. Grade: Fitbit IPO — probably a little overpriced. *Note: Henderson has since been traded to Portland.

O.J. Mayo and Caron Butler, Bucks; salary $12.5 million. Caron’s $4.5 million is probably the price Cleveland would have to eat to get Mayo, but Milwaukee needs some space to re-sign Khris Middleton and if they want to lure any free agents. At 27, Mayo would take at least one first rounder, and probably two to pry from the Bucks, and I’m not sure they make the deal to a division rival regardless. O.J. is a shoot first combo guard with a 6’5″ frame, who can get his own shot or create for others. But, at 27, he’s been a perennial tease and a letdown when the playoffs start (career 47 TS% in four career playoff series). Still, he can shoot and create, and has the same kind of gravity that J.R. Smith has as a floor spacer. Mayo has also always been the first or second option on the floor, and playing third or fourth banana for the Cavs could really benefit him, as could playing with a superstar like LeBron. Caron would get a stretch pay buyout. Grade: Your neighbor’s carbon fiber road bike. You’d love to have it, but you probably can’t afford it -and he probably wouldn’t sell it to you, anyway.

Jared Dudley, Bucks; salary $4.25 million. He could replace Mayo in the deal above, and the Bucks might be a lot more intrigued. Six-foot-seven Dudley is still a decent 3-and-D guy with a 40% career three point mark. He smoked the Bulls in the playoffs behind the arc, shooting 57% there, and adding 2.4 steals a game. He also posted a whopping 2.47 dRPM last year. He would be a decent replacement if J.R. or Shump walk. He’s a high level 29 year old role player. Grade: A third set of headphones. You probably don’t need another, but it couldn’t hurt.

Jose Calderon, Knicks; salary $7.1 million.  Help the Knicks clear even more cap room by removing one of their only serviceable players? Is Calderon a good fit in the triangle? Maybe, maybe not. He shot 42%/42%/91% last year, averaging only 9.1 points and 4.7 assists in 30 minutes a game. Calderon posted an abysmal -4.04 RPM last year, but we’ve seen what players can do when they go Snake Plissken and Escape from New York. Calderon can still make plays, and he can still shoot… and he can still get injured, and he can still can’t guard anyone. Grade: James Jones, point guard edition.

Channing Frye, Magic: salary $8.2 million. Frye signed a four year $32 million dollar contract last year, and went from one of the league’s best Real Plus Minus players, at 5.09, to a -1.4 RPM player. The Magic’s coaching certainly had something to do with it, as Hornacek used Frye to the best of his ability, and the Magic were a mess all year. Channing still shot 39% from three last year, but his finishing percentage around the basket dropped from 62% to 39%. His rebound rate also fell to a career low 8.9%. At 32 years old, either Frye has lost some explosion around the basket, or the Magic weren’t using him right, or a bit of both. Three more years at $8 million per is s a lot of money to pay for Frye, but he can theoretically play three positions, and is still a knockdown shooter. Also, the Magic probably have to decide they’re giving up on him before the Cavs could afford him. Grade: The Rashard Lewis award for the player currently in the middle of a “sign and retire” contract.

Greivous Vazquez* and James Johnson, Raptors; salary $8.9 million. Vazquez was on my fantasy team last year, and he’s as big of a trick or treat player as there is in the league. His 41%/38%/76% shooting percentages say it all. Also, at 6’6″, you’d think he’d be a better defender. But he can run an offense, doesn’t turn the ball over, and can shoot the three. Toronto probably isn’t looking to trade him or Johnson, as their salaries are reasonable for their positions, but if Toronto wants to clear cap room, these are the guys. Johnson is a Ben Werth favorite, and he’s a scrapper. He posted a 1.98 RPM, and provides some serious energy on defense at the power forward position. He doesn’t rebound like TT, but he’s a better shooter and shot blocker, and has the defensive chops to switch onto wings and guards like TT. He certainly would give the Cavs some leverage and insurance in the Canadian Dynamite negotiations. Plus, he’s tied with Wilson Chandler at the third spot on the list for the weirdest NBA neck tattoos. Grade: Rather have Delly and Tristan bobble heads. *Note: Greivous Vasquez has since been traded to Memphis.

Wilson Chandler and Randy Foye; Nuggets, salary $9.8 million. Chandler plays like a sine wave. One month he’s up, one month he’s down. In February he posted abysmal splits of 39%/25%/100% (only nine free throws in eight games while taking 117 shots). In March he went 50%/44%/73% and averaged 13.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. He’s a volume shooter, who can get his own shot, averaging 12.5 shots a game with a 20% usage. But he’s 6’8″, can play both forward spots, and guard some of the league’s shooting guards. He’s a decent passer, but just an average defender. We’d have to see where he’d fit in limited minutes for Cavs at the wing or forward. He also posted a lousy -2.8 RPM last year, but the Nuggets were lousy in general. 31 year old Foye is a throw-in who can hit some open shots, but is strictly a jump shooter at this point in his career and a bench combo guard. He posts Boobie Gibson-esque shooting splits of 37%/36%/82%  He can give you some minutes but they don’t come cheap with a -4.4 RPM. Grade: Puzzle pieces from the the wrong puzzle.

Dino Gallinari; Nuggets, salary $10.9 million; Gallinari is probably not gettable, as he’s only 26 and his scoring took a big upswing towards the end of the year when he proved he was fully recovered from an ACL injury that took him out in 2013. Dino’s 47 point outburst in April turned some heads, even if he had a pedestrian shooting season of 40%/36%/90%. The six-foot-ten Gallinari can play the three or the four and could spell LeBron, but it would be tough to find him minutes. He’s an average defender, but posts a very nice oRPM of 2.1. I imagine his shooting stats would go up if he weren’t the primary option, but where do the Cavs play him? Grade: 87 D’Antonis.

Jamal Crawford; Clippers, salary $5.5 million. The six-foot-five inch Crawford has seen his efficiency drop precipitously in the last two years, and by the time the playoffs had rolled around he was posting a career playoff low 45 TS%. Jamal is also 35, and is one of the worst perimeter defenders in the league (-4.4 DRPM, worst among shooting guards). His contract also makes getting a third team involved necessary, as the Clips don’t have the bodies to get to the minimum in salary the Cavs have to take back. Grade: Like the first two Jurrasic Park sequels, I’m just going to pretend this last paragraph didn’t happen.

Jeremy Lin*, Vander Blue, and Ryan Kelly; Lakers, salary $10.3 million. This trade scenario was floated earlier this week. Here is the response from resident Lakers watcher and Jeremy Lin disliker, EvilGenius.

Lin’s completely ball-dominant. Without the ball, he just doesn’t know how or where to move on the court (something that baffles me, given his purported high basketball IQ). He’s not a particularly good spot up or three point shooter though, so even if he did know how to space the floor, it wouldn’t amount to all that much.

Jeremy tends to dribble incessantly, often dumping off the ball to a big man with a short shot clock, or trying feebly to finish at the rack. He’s not an especially good finisher (that I’ve seen), so he winds up looking like a slightly better version of Delly on his drives. It’s fine for talented scorers like LBJ or Kyrie to be ball dominant, because there’s a greater likelihood of a scoring opportunity.

Lin’s best performances were under D’Antoni’s offensive system since it required a fast pace, rapid thinking and shots early in the shot clock before the defense can get set. He’s struggled more in the Houston (and now Lakers) systems under McHale and Grumpy respectively.

On defense, he’s kind of a disaster. I’ve seen him stick to screens worse than pre-LBJ Kyrie, and despite his length, he just doesn’t seem to move his feet defensively to stay in front of quicker PGs. In this respect, it would be better to at least have a defensive-minded PG (like Delly).

Lin’s early success was primarily due to D’Antoni’s use of him (fast-paced offense, little attention to defense), rather than Jeremy’s touted basketball IQ. He seems like he should be an above-average backup PG, but he has been exposed as a marginal one. Ironically, he’d probably flourish in the system that had him first, Golden State, although Kerr made much of Lin’s inattention to defense back when he was an analyst.

The Cavs would be better off sticking with Delly for defense and bringing in a more offensive minded and less ball-dominant PG to augment him.

Oh, and he (still) primarily goes right. BUT, he’d help CavsDan recoup his losses with a fat Chinese TV contract. Also Ryan Kelly and Vander Blue are innocuous. Grade: Evil sermon. *Note: Jeremy Lin is now a free agent. Criticism still stands.

Courtney Lee and Vince Carter; Grizzlies, salary $9.4 million. Memphis needs to clear the decks to pay Marc Gasol. Dumping these two is the way to do it. At 29, Lee’s still a solid defender who’s turned himself into a 3D player. He shot 40% there last year, and 47% in the playoffs. He’s six-foot-five, can guard most wings, and has a reasonable $5.4 million dollar contract. Carter is 38, is in his 16th year in the league and has two more years on his deal and shot 33%/30%/80%, failing to average double digits for the first time. Stick a fork in him. Grade: Discount rack at the back of the grocery store – sometimes you get a good deal, and sometimes you just get spoiled lettuce.

Jeff Green; Grizzlies, salary $9.2 million. Green was not the game changer in the playoffs that Memphis hoped he’d be. Do they cut bait, or try to see if he improves with a training camp under his belt? Another combo forward, Green might have a problem finding minutes on the Cavs, but he has played the two-guard before. He’s a bit of a utility knife on offense: he does a lot of things OK, but nothing super well, but he can get his own shot. And he likes to shoot. He shot 43%/36%/83% last year, has a very low assist rate, and plays meh defense. He posted a -3.57 RPM. He’s the best scorer on a bad team. Grade: Larry Hughes +four inches.

Kevin Martin and Chase Budinger, Timberwolves, salary $11.8 million. Martin can still shoot. He averaged 20 points per game last year on 55 TS% and 39% from three as the ‘Wolves primary option. His mere presence opens the lane. But he’s 32, has two more years left at $6.8 per, and can’t guard anyone (-3.3 dRPM), but he’d rival Kyrie as the best shooter on the team. Could Cleveland hide him on D? Chase Budinger is another 3 and D small forward, and can really only play small forward at 6’7″. He’s also not a great defender, but can shoot 37% from three, and that’s about it. Also, do the Cavs want to give the Wolves any more picks? Grade: Turkey cold cuts – you don’t really want to eat them, but they might be the only option in the house.

Anthony Morrow, Jeremy Lamb, Steve Novak, Thunder; salary $8.8 million. The Thunder are/is (I hate non-pluralized team names) just over the tax apron, and want to improve. Morrow is one of the league’s best shooters from three, and one of the worst shooters from two. Lamb’s been a perpetual tease in OKC, and is mostly out of the core now that Dion’s there. Steve Novak makes $3.8 million because he got to play with D’Antoni in New York for a couple years. He can hit open threes in practice. I doubt OKC does this deal without a pick and a way to turn it into more players for them, which the Cavs don’t have. But does Clay Bennett want to pay the tax? Grade: The wheel: the worst good hand in Hold’Em.

P.J. Tucker, Danny Granger; $7.8 million. P.J. is a solid player I wanted the Cavs to chase last year. But he is 30. Danny Granger is probably toast at this point in his career. PJ can play defense and shoot and is six-foot-six. Phoenix is two million under the cap, so there’s probably no reason to make this deal other than the fact that Robert Sarver’s crazy. Grade: The famous empty juice box for a snack pack lunch trade.

Eric Bledsoe, Suns; salary $13 million. Now we’re getting somewhere. Speaking of crazy Suns’ owner, Robert Sarver, word is Phoenix is shopping Mr. Bledsoe — one of the best two way guards in the league. So why can’t the Cavs get all of Klutch Sports’ clients in one town? Well, reportedly the Suns are in talks with the Knicks for the number four pick (which makes no sense if you’re the Knicks). If that falls through (and Larry Dolan doesn’t override Phil Jackson to get Bledsoe, who’d be terrible in the triangle) it would take a LOT from the Cavs, and even more from Klutch to get this done. We’re talking this year’s pick, the future Memphis pick, and probably a future first-rounder, and even that might not be enough. Cleveland has to hope someone the Suns really want falls to 24. Then Cavs starting backcourt would be a holy terror on both sides of the ball. Grade: Klutch.

Alec Burks; Jazz, salary $9.2 million. Burks got a $40 million dollar extension last year, and then tore up his shoulder. Utah has cap room and a bright future. I doubt they want to move him, and it would take the deal I proposed for Bledsoe to do it. If they do want to do it, Cleveland should be wary of his shoulder. Plus he only shot 41% from the floor last year (he has Dionitis). Burks, though, can play either guard spot or small forward with his handling, passing, and shooting. At 23, he’s the kind of player Griff says he’s looking for. Do the Cavs have enough to do it? Do they want another guy with a gimpy shoulder? Grade: All you can eat seats at the Q’s next arm sling giveaway.

Tyreke Evans; Pelicans, salary $11.3 million. 25 year old Evans is a violent slasher and finisher at the rack, but a shooter? Not so much. A career 28% gunner from three who upped it to just 30% last year, Evans still unrepentantly jacks up 2.9 triples a game. But, he threw up 16.6 points, 6.6 dimes, and 5.3 rebounds per game last year. Why’s he even being mentioned here, when the Pelicans had an über successful season? Well, we heard a rumor that new coach Alvin Gentry is shopping him. Ty is the kind of guy the Cavs need: a 25-year-old playmaker who can get his own shot. But while he’s a good finisher (56%), his second best shot is the 16+ foot two (39%).  At six-foot-six ‘Reke can play all the way to the four in small lineups (he has the build), and he would give the Cavs flexibility, but would he just piss LeBron off when he jacks up bad Js? Also, the Cavs would have to sell the farm for this one too. Grade: a newly registered domain from GoDaddy – heytyrekeevanspleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com.

Rudy Gay; Sacramento, salary $12.4 million. Rudy plays they high volume scoring game, but throughout his career it hasn’t translated to wins (he has one career playoff appearance). He averaged 21 points, 5.9 boards, and 3.7 assists in 35 minutes a night last year. He’s a scorer who can get his own shot, can score anywhere on the floor (and tries to), and would solve some scoring drought problems for the Cavs. He’s strictly an offensive player, with a 2.9 oRPM, and a -2.5 dRPM. He plays the same position on the floor as LeBron, but could play the four as well. Rudy is 28 now, and his contract extension is backloaded and pays him $61.4 million over the next four years, with a $21 million dollar charge when Rudy is 31. That is a lot of money to pay for a fourth scoring option. But if free agency doesn’t go as planned? Well, then the Cavs ought to pick up the phone and call the Kings. Rumors are that George wouldn’t mind moving him before his contract becomes a problem. Hard to think the Cavs have the assets, though. Grade: Cadillac Escalade, America’s most overpriced car. (It’s a $63,000 Silverado).

Conclusions: I’m exhausted. All of these guys have warts. As we can see, the options aren’t stellar, and I’ve left off guys I think would be redundant, awful fits, or would be consolation prizes if the unthinkable happens in free agency (cough cough, Spencer Hawes or Ryan Anderson, cough). It’s tough to trade when you’re so far over the apron, but of all these ideas, the Eric Bledsoe deal and the O.J. Mayo deal seem the best, but they’re also the most pie-in-the-sky. The Cavs will probably get two or three medium quality players at best: Jarrett Jack, Grievous/Johnson, Morrow/Lamb/Novak, or even the Jeremy Lin platter. We’ll see what happens. Let me know if I forgot anyone.