The Point Four-ward: Looking (Somewhat Ambitiously) Ahead

Four points I’m thinking about the Cleveland Cavaliers…

1.) J.R. Smith’s three point explosion against the Chicago Bulls on Sunday (8-17 FGs… all three pointers) had many Cavs fans on Twitter talking about the team’s starting two guard and his contract status. After all, Smith has a player option for just under $6.4 million for next season. If he were playing like he was as a member of the New York Knicks earlier this season, Smith likely would have picked up that option. And, right now, $6.4 million for the type of production Smith is providing is a bargain.

In Cleveland, Smith has thrived and the team has thrived with him. Cavs head coach David Blatt has referred to Smith as “a godsend” and LeBron James has said the 6-8 Smith has been “everything we needed and more.”

Derek Fisher, Smith’s former coach in New York, said that Cleveland’s roster has allowed Smith to excel by being more of a catch-and-shoot player than a playmaker, a role in which he struggled to play for the Knicks this year. And it’s true that when Smith has shot the ball well from deep, the Cavs have looked darned near unstoppable. That all adds up to a player who, at 29 years old, will probably be looking to capitalize on all of the public adoration showered on him by the Cavs by turning it into a long-term — and much more lucrative — deal.

But is tying up a ton of money in Smith really a smart move for the Cavs going forward?

2.) The Cavs are going to have plenty of roster questions to answer after the season.

A lot can change between now and the free agency period, but assuming Smith does, in fact, opt out of his deal, the Cavs will have to deal with his free agency along with the expected free agencies of Kevin Love, the possible free agency of LeBron James and the restricted free agencies of Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert. Mike Miller will likely pick up his $2.85 million player option, Shawn Marion will retire and, if I were to guess right now, I’d say that the team finds some money to re-sign James Jones, the patron saint of good locker room guys, to a cost-effective deal.

The salary cap is about to increase significantly, so that will allow the Cavs to spend a bit more to keep this season’s successful rotation together before they are plunged fully into salary cap hell — and there’s always the chance that Thompson and/or Shumpert could wind up playing out their contract on the qualifying offer in order to become fully unrestricted free agents the following summer.

Still, what is Smith worth to the Cavs? If you were Dan Gilbert, would you pay him $9 million a year? If you were David Grffin, would you feel good about offering Smith $10 million a year? And at what point does a player’s value to a particular team start to bring his price down in regards to other teams around the league?

Barring an epic post-season slump that shoots the Cavs out of several games, though, expect the Smith to get paid. After struggling to fit Dion Waiters into the starting (or backup) shooting guard role for the past two years, the seamlessness with which Smith has fit in (at least thus far) is worth the Cavs keeping him here for the remainder of his prime.

3.) While many of you were probably watching Duke play Wisconsin in the NCAA Championship Game on Monday night, I had the opportunity to watch the Brooklyn Nets take on the Portland Trailblazers at the Barclay Center in Brooklyn, NY. This game was originally scheduled for back in January, but was canceled by the threat of a coming Snow-pacalypse (that never came) and rescheduled for this week.

I watched the game with a bit more of a rooting interest than I’d normally bring to a late-season Nets/Blazers match-up. The Nets, after all, should they continue winning could hold on to the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and set up a meeting with the likely second-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. I’d actually get to catch two Cavs playoff games in my local viewing area. In my book, that’s worth a few claps for Deron Williams and Brook Lopez.

It’s funny, though: when I originally agreed to take the pair of season tickets off the hands of a very generous friend, I thought “Great. I’ll get to see one good team, at least.” I just wasn’t expecting that team to be Brooklyn.

4.)  Granted, the Blazers were playing without All-Star forward LeMarcus Aldridge (rest), but the Nets still overcame 36 points from Damian Lillard to win 106-96 and, in doing so, looked like a much feistier potential first round opponent for the Cavs than, perhaps, the seeding (and the Nets play for much of the season) would lead one to expect.

Brook Lopez scored 32 points on 15-25 shooting to go along with nine rebounds and one block for the Nets, who also saw a throwback game from Williams (24 points, 10 assists) and strong contributions from Thaddeus Young (20 points, five boards) and Bojan Bogdanovic (15 points and a team-high +20).

Lopez, in particular, has been on a tear of late, winning the Eastern Conference Player of the Week award for last week. From nba.com:

Lopez led the Nets to a 3-1 week behind team-leading averages of 20.8 points (sixth in the conference), 10.3 rebounds (fourth in the conference) and 2.0 blocks (tied-fifth in the conference). Lopez shot better than 50 percent in all four contests, and ranked seventh in the East for the week with a field goal percentage of 59.4. He recorded two point-rebound double-doubles, including a 30-point, 17-rebound outing during a 114-109 win over the Toronto Raptors on April 3.

The past few seasons of injuries and disappointing play from Williams and, to a lesser degree, Lopez, along with the future-mortgaging deal that brought in Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett on the downside of their careers, meant that the championship window never really opened up in the Barclays Center. Still, the Nets have a coach in Lionel Hollins whose time with the Memphis Grizzlies showed that he could get the most out of his roster, as long as that roster was willing to defend and rebound. Hollins now has a mix of youth and experience on his roster. It’s a mixture that may never be great but, if Williams and Lopez are playing up to their potential, can still be deep, versatile and very good.

Hollins got on Lopez earlier in the season for not rebounding enough, something that has always been an issue for the 7-0 big man who, when he’s healthy, may be the best offensive center in the league. While Lopez’s season-long rebounding average (7.3) won’t wow anyone, over the last 10 games he’s averaging a nearly-respectable-f0r-a-seven-footer 8.8 rebounds a game. In the month of April, it’s up to 9.8. If Hollins has finally helped Lopez get over the rebounding hump — and, of course, as long as Lopez remains healthy — the Nets still have a solid building block on their roster.

In a match-up against the Cavs, Lopez’s strong recent play places a greater demand on Timofey Mozgov, who may actually see some fourth quarter minutes as the Nets are unlikely to try to beat the Cavs by going small. If the Nets get Mozgov into foul trouble, that would certainly ratchet up the degree of difficulty for the wine and gold.