ALL THE REBOUNDS!
2014-10-07
If you tuned into the Cavs preseason opener against Maccabi Tel Aviv Electra (pretty sweet name…Electra) you may have noticed the Cavs dominated the boards. I mean, completely and utterly dominated. The final disparity was 64-36. Varejao, Love, and Thompson all had double-digit rebounds and they had 15 offensive rebounds between them. If a preseason game against a non-NBA opponent isn’t piquing your interest, I’ll just cut to the chase: Love, Varejao, and Thompson, are ELITE rebounders.
I haven’t (yet) done any numerical analysis to characterize the wins-added value of rebounding. I can say that making broad generalizations about individual rebounding is dangerous. It’s an interesting topic to ponder. Should you crash the glass or get back on D? There have been studies done that show a player’s rebounding numbers don’t always translate to positive things. You can “steal” rebounds from your teammates without contributing to your team’s overall rebound rate. J.J. Hickson appears to be the poster child for this. Neil Paine delved into this recently:
Superficially speaking, Hickson appears to be one of the league’s best rebounders, averaging 10.8 boards per game (sixth-best in the NBA) with a 21.7 rebounding percentage (fourth-best). However, there’s plenty of evidence that many of those rebounds have simply been stolen from his teammates, not opponents. Only Anderson Varejao and Reggie Evans have a bigger differential between their own rebounding rates and those of their teammates, but at least Varejao and Evans lead their teams to above-average rebound percentages while on the floor — and improve their teams’ rebounding when in the game. Despite Hickson’s gaudy individual stats, the Blazers have a negative net rebound rate with him in the lineup, and they actually rebound at a better rate when he’s not on the floor.
So with the similarly “gaudy” rebounding numbers of Wes, Wild Thing, and Canadian Dynamite, should we expect them to steal rebounds from each other? The rest of the team? How will their individual rebounding prowess benefit the team’s overall rebounding?
Enter Randall Cooper (@laughingCavs) of gotbuckets.com and his Four Factors APM (FFAPM). The “four” in FFAPM breaks basketball into four components: Shooting Percentages, Rebounding Rates, Turnover Rates, and Free Throw Rates. FFAPM shows how a team out/under-performs opponents in these four categories when a player is on the court.
Here’s how the Cavs’ trio of rebounding savants fare using 2-year FFAPM data. (100 is best, 0 is worst. Think of Madden rankings)
K Love: DRB – 96, ORB – 88
Varejao: DRB – 89, ORB – 97
Tristan: DRB – 80, ORB – 86
That’s solid on both ends. We knew these guys could snag a ton of boards, but their teams are also significantly outperforming the opponent in rebounding when they are on the court. (Here is how the distribution percentiles shown here correspond to real numbers.)
Alright, so peace of mind for everyone – even if the individual raw rebounding numbers drop for each player the Cavs should be a juggernaut on the glass (at both ends). Let’s check out other notables in FFAPM rebounding.
Brendan Haywood: DRB – 95, ORB – 90 (whoa…)
SUPERDOVA: DRB – 94, ORB – 67 (Advanced stats, where the Delly doth RULE!)
LeBron James: DRB – 50, ORB – 31
Pretty much everyone else on the Cavs is a net negative in the rebounding department, even Shawn Marion, which was a disappointment to me. At one time (6+ years ago) Marion was Elite in FFAPM for rebounding. Alas…
But Delly. Holy Dingo! (Can we get Fred McLeod to say “DINGO!” instead of “BINGO!” when he drains corner 3s? Use social media for something good for once, America.)
Delly is the best Guard (PG or SG) by a wide margin in defensive rebounding FFAPM. Only one Small Forward (Danny Granger) has a higher value than Delly.
Always doing the little things
Basically, if the Cavs want to get every. single. defensive rebound they could trot out a lineup that looks like this:
Kyrie (45)
Delly (94)
LeBron (50)
Love (96)
Haywood (95) / Varejao (89)
If they trot out this lineup (which is totally a conceivable lineup) they will never give up an offensive rebound. This lineup features three totally elite rebounders and we’re not even counting LeBron! I’ve seen a lot of LeBron over the years. I can say with confidence that when he really wants to get a rebound he does, and coasts the rest of the time. He’s not great at boxing out and clearly he’s average according to FFAPM. But when he decides he really needs to grab the board he’s going to raise his game.
So what does this mean? Teams aren’t going to get second chances against the Cavs, that’s for sure. Put the RingZZZ in the bag right? Eh, maybe not. But my gut tells me that coupling so many elite rebounders with LeBron and Kyrie is going to lead to a lot of fast breaks without the potentially negative tactic of jumping passing lanes. We saw it on display yesterday, with Kevin Love looking to throw touchdowns on almost every board. Additionally, a lot of these guys are elite at offensive rebounding. While some argue going for offensive boards isn’t a net positive, Chris Bosh’ offensive board and kick out to Ray Allen was the difference between the Spurs winning back to back championships. Netting an extra possession after a team has played 23 seconds of superb defense is just back-breaking.
The Cavs should win the possession battle most nights. With all their offensive firepower, opposing teams better make the most of their possessions. I expect teams to really try to slow down the pace against the Cavs (who are going to want to make every game a track meet). Good teams will be as patient as possible, trying to draw free throws and get easy interior buckets. Unlike last season where the Cavs gave up an asinine amount of 3-pointers (the trade-off for fixing their transition D and their interior D) this team may not mind 3s quite as much since those long misses could lead to insta-fast breaks.
Here’s hoping the Cavs leverage their elite skills en route to a deep playoff run.
*all FFAPM data courtesy of Randall Cooper and hosted at www.gotbuckets.com
**Neil Paine is a fan of Randall’s FFAPM and used it in a fivethirtyeight article this summer.
If there’s a statistical theory that exists that suggests Delly is twice the rebounder that Lebron is and just as good as Love and Varejao, then that statistical theory should be taken out back and shot. Delly is NOT going to be a significant rotation player. Just because Delly is the type of player you were growing up (a hustler and scrappy because you sucked on offense) doesn’t mean you have to be an out of your mind homer for him. Was he decent last year? Yea, maybe, because the team was a steaming mess! A scrappy hustler looks pretty… Read more »
Wipe that ridiculous cheshire cat grin off your face, Gollum (and get the damn ball across half court). The stat doesn’t say Delly is a better rebounder, it says the team outrebounds the other team when he’s on the court. Better than any other guard in the league (and most forwards). Delly’s going to play more than 5 minutes a night and here’s why: he’s the best backcourt defender on the team and can play either guard position. He’s perfectly complimentary to high usage stars like Kyrie, Dion, LeBron and Love, and so he’s going to play. Also, everyone just… Read more »
No way does he play more than 14 minutes a game. 5-10
If the Cavs weren’t going to play Delly they’d have waived him before his contract guaranteed. He’ll earn a healthy contract next season. I like the young but solid guard core.
Expect Haywood to be DNP-CD nightly until he is traded.
Is it possible to block commenters who just state the same things over and over and over and over and over and…
(Not mentioning any names)
I’ll name him for you. Cols714.
Cols714 might keep saying the same two things over and over again, but one of them is on the money: The Cavs should be the best team in the NBA, starting THIS year. Most of us know this, but don’t want to say it (for good reasons); but Cols doesn’t mind being out front. As for Delly, I am guessing Cols is the kind of person who likes to argue, and finds it hard to quit. I didn’t watch a lot of the team last year, but from what I saw, it was obvious that the Cavs were a better… Read more »
I love Ray Allen. He’s one of the most fundamentally sound guards I’ve ever seen. He is so good about getting points in transition, and he’s a great closer. He’d be fine to be in that role by himself. If you need two free throws at the end of a game, you get him the ball. However, he can’t guard anyone any more. Don’t mind him on the team. James Jones won’t be playing at all, anyway. But the biggest problem this team is going to have on defense is dribble penetration which will get the bigs in foul trouble.… Read more »
Ray Allen partially suffered from being in Miami’s insane defensive system, just like James Jones. Anyone who struggled to keep up with their hyper trapping rotations just wound up looking slow and exposed. Blatt’s sure to run a more manageable defensive system for everyone involved. I hated watching the Heat the past four years, but James Jones looked like the worst defensive player of all time when I saw him play on that team. But the couple times I’ve seen him play on the Cavs he looked a lot less like a liability on that end. I still wouldn’t call… Read more »
Great points. I never thought Allen looked all that “bad” per se, but when he had to play more than 20 minutes a night, he got exposed. He’s a specialist at this point in his career.
Jones: I see a guy with no knee bend and very poor lateral movement. Perhaps he can be a decent system defender, but I’ve never been impressed.
I’ve never gotten the impression that Allen is a good locker room guy. Not that I’ve heard a ton of bad stuff about him but I disinctly remember him throwing a fit about coming off the bench one year in Boston when he was struggling. I also can’t recall him helping anyone’s shot improve.
Another point taken. Allen is a pro’s pro. He works his butt off at his craft, and that’s a great way to lead by example. However, he can be a Prima Dona. It’s a fine line I suppose.
Not so fast on Ray Allen.
Nuts. Sounds like he will end up here though.
Yes cause this team certainly needs another 3 point shooting wing who can’t defend lol.
And this is why I’m really not all that excited about signing him. We have plenty of shooting in our lineup. We have a coach who preaches and teaches off ball movement anyways (and brought in a lot of guys who are more than capable of off-ball movement.) So all the things that Allen has done historically well, we have. He’s clearly a player in decline. Even as good of a shooter as he is…and as easy as it might be to hide him on defense with all the talent we have, he still isn’t even remotly close to being… Read more »
Allen, Miller and Jones are all three versions of the exact same player- a spot up shooter too old to do anything else in their late 30s. I don’t see the point in having all three of them split 15 minutes a game.
No I think the team would benefit a ton from Ray Allen.
Right now there are 3 guards (unless you include AJ Price).
If any of Kyrie, Waiters, or Delly goes down you’d have to slide LeBron to a guard spot (which he can do on offense) but then he’s gotta chase people all over the perimeter.
Having a 4th guard that is one of the clutches spot-3 point shooters of all time would help.
Yeah that’s a good point.
Yep. Right now the rotation is
Lebron
Love
Irving
Waiters
Andy
Marion
Miller
Thompson
Jones
Haywood
Adding Allen to that improves things quite a bit
Ray Allen’s real value is probably more in the locker room than on the court at this point. I would like him to mentor Dion.
You forgot Delly, who will be in the rotation (as much as you might not like it.) That’s 11 people in a rotation when most teams don’t go much past 10 anyways. (Yes, I know we dress 12.)
Expect Irving, Waiters, James, Love, TT to get the lions share of the starters minutes.
Expect for Delly, Marion, Miller and Varejao to be our most common bench guys with spot duty for Haywood and Jones.
Wow, you really do hate Delly huh. Good thing Blatt loves the kid. And considering he’s probably the best defensive guard on the team, I’d say it’s a safe bet that he’ll get his share of minutes.
His shooting has been in steady decline for a few years now. His defense is atrocious. He’s had a fantastic career…but he’s not who he used to be.
Also, we have James Jones and Mike Miller who will be getting minutes at the 2 as wings anyways. As long as we don’t lose two of Delly, Kyrie, Dion at the same time, we’ll be fine.
Tom your leaving out Miller who will play alot of 2 guard minutes. I see very little use for Allen. If we have a slew of injuries he will be nice but is Ray Mother trucking Allan goi to be cool backing up Mike Miller and Matthew Delladova? Doubt it. I see him causing chemistry issues ala his last year in Boston when he was forced to come off the bench (Not sure if it was his last season but it happened for a few weeks). Right now we are perfect. When Irving gets hurt Dio/ moves to point, Miller… Read more »
Allen won’t have to be backing up Delly. He would play instead of Delly.
Miller, Allen, and Jones are all going to play ahead of Delly.
Cols, I don’t know if you just enjoy jerking everyone’s chain, or if you actually have some reason to fixate on Delly.
But it is obvious to anyone who has played any ball that Delly is surely in the main rotation, and quite possibly a starter. There is a good chance that Delly will start ahead of Dion. This does not mean he is better than Dion, just that it makes more sense that way.
Oh hey, we just signed Ray Allen. BEST OFFSEASON EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why is signing a declining shooter who doesn’t play defense a good thing?
Anyone worried at all about this team need to go read Zach Lowe at Grantland. This team is going to be great. They are going to destroy everyone on offense and the boards and their defense will be capable. If you have fears, go read it here.
Another guy who loves Delly
An alternative theory on Delly is that he was playing in lineups that tended to play against opponents’ weaker lineups. APM/RAPM type statistics attempts to control for this (as opposed to basic plus/minus, which completely ignores it), but there are fundamental “identification” problems in how it works due to the limited overlap in who players play with and against. A Not to sound douchey, but I have a PhD and have worked with these types of models for 15 years (in non-NBA settings), so I know how they work quite well. APM/RAPM are the best conceptual statistics around in my… Read more »
Shouldn’t it be enough to say that he’s a good backup though? Most backups play against other backups, so it’s not enough to say that he’s a great overall player, but within the backup pool, he is pretty damn good. That still seems important.
The Cavs clearly think they need to upgrade the backup guard position. That’s why they brought in Miller, Jones, and are trying to get Ray Allen. If they thought Delly was half as good as the guys at CtB do, they wouldn’t bring in these guys.
Delly is not going to play much, it at all this year.
Those guys are all wings.
Yeah, but they can all dunk! Don’t you watch sportcenter? Only dunkers are worthy of minutes.
With the team so cap stretched and half our bench a year or two from retirement I expect Delly to get his share. Back up guard isn’t going to decide the title for us but last year proved he is a capable NBA player. The team would be crazy to not see whether he’s worth hanging on to for another few years.
Miami became crippled with their lack of youth after they traded all their picks. We should not do the same.
Actually isn’t odd that they have brought in 0 back up point guards. And that Dellly was the lone cheap asset that didn’t get dumped. Zeller, Karasev, Wiggins, Picks galore, Gee, Bennett. Somehow Delly survived. I think the Cavs LOVE Delly.
Cols714 hates Delly. This became even more evident when the faux-Delly-Fetish occurred over at FTS. Pay him no mind.
They have Irving, Waiters, Lebron to bring up the ball and act as PG. Delly isn’t going to be doing this.
Cols at some point you indicated Delly was turnover prone. Maybe based on his summer league stint. Of Guards that logged more than 1000 minutes the last two seasons, Delly is tied for 10th in FFAPM for limiting turnovers. He has not figured to be a liability bringing the ball up the court or initiating offense. Also, you need at least one backup guard, preferably two. I expect Delly to get more minutes per game than he did last season. Mike Miller is rarely going to be playing guard, he will replace LeBron and show in small ball lineups where… Read more »
Delly won’t be acting as a PG, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t come in and guard them. He doesn’t have to initiate the offense to be a PG. Derek Fisher was a PG…his job was to shoot open 3’s and defend…and keep the offense moving. That’s what he did and made a career out of.
That’s all that we’ll ask Delly to do…and since that is (essentially) the limit of his talent…that’s all that he’ll do.
Delly is the mini Andy. When he was on the floor he dominated long rebounds. His hyper activity combined with his high IQ made him elite at this. This was a big reason why he was able to push the ball down the court quicker than anyone else. Which lead to the Cavs scoring more, which helped his +/- stats a lot.
Random Delly Data- Breakdown of opponents he shared the floor with and how many total minutes he logged against them:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12p2cG5YeVSr2kw5sykykkdt2wHdKTrs3TqCc7STPutQ/edit#gid=228281025
Not surprising he was Mike Brown’s attack dog for Bradley Beal, after the way Beal abused the Cavs in the first 2 and a half quarters of that Nov 20 game.
Since we don’t have a like button, i’ll type it out. I like this comment.
What this all means to me is that the Cavs can afford to play up close on the perimeter to minimize open threes, because they will at almost all times have at least two elite rebounders on the court to work the boards. They can sacrifice proper positioning because they have players who will figure out how to get the boards anyway, even if they have to work harder for it. The flipside strategy- pack the paint to absolutely maximize rebounding- gets you Mike Brown numbers. You are left susceptible to teams that get hot from outside. We’ve seen how… Read more »
Yeah, I agree with you. The idea the article presents that the Cavs might want teams to shoot 3’s on them seems backwards to me. Because they’ll either get hot and be hitting 3’s, or be missing, resulting in the most difficult defensive rebounds that exist. For an elite defensive rebounding team, you’d want the rebounds to be short and predictable. And as far as fast breaks go, Love can catch them right underneath the hoop and work with that just fine.
Under no circumstance do I think open 3s are acceptable. What I said was “this team may not mind 3s quite as much since those long misses could lead to insta-fast breaks.” In other words, it might not be as bad for this team when the other team wants to fire away from outside.
The Cavs seemed to do everything better with Delly on the floor last season, some things by chance and others because he’s scrappy and awesome. Maybe his teammates get super amped when he’s running the floor with them; The Superdova Theory of Gravitational Sports Psychology.
The Delly rebound numbers struck me as odd, too. I’d blame it on colinearity, but no one else on the Cavs experienced this. Another year’s worth of minutes will prove if this is a fluke or not.
It struck me as odd at first to until i thought back and remembered how every time there was a long rebound during “Delly Time” (you know those 15-2 runs over 5 minutes that he would spark) Delly came up with them or would knock them to a team mate. I assume they will come down a little but not a lot. I would love to see a stat on rebounds gathered outside of 10 feet. I would bet a lot of money that Delly was in the top 10 in that category
A while ago, I started a discussion with one Mr. Brooklyn Cavalier about meeting up to watch games this season, other expat Cavs fans started grouping into various cities to find places to meet up to watch the games, but nothing much came of it. I figured I’d try to help this along, so I created Cavs: The Coffee Klatch the Google Group for Cavs:The Blog readers who would like to meet up in the real, physical world in order to watch Cavs games, drink beers, possibly even eat food and talk about the Cavs and life. http://tinyurl.com/puud6g2 – ask… Read more »
Apparently Google checks the human bit for you, so no need to do that bit, just join!
Didn’t get approved right away, FYI.
On it. You’re in now, sorry!
The elite rebounding will fit nicely with the elite 3-point shooting and elite transition attack. What’s not to like?