Podcast Episode 55: 2014 Training Camp!
2014-09-28
The Cavs first practice kicked off on Sunday. Kyrie Irving called it “surreal.” We here at at CtB can hardly believe it either. Our first on-the-court glimpse of this Cavs team is only a few days away. Until then, we’ll have to fantasize. While visions of half-court alley oops danced in our heads, Robert, Ben, David and I hopped in the podcast booth for a 2014 training camp preview. Who will lead this team? Are there hidden storylines? Who’s going to start? Who’s going to close? Does Mike Miller have a better ‘do than Andy? We answered all these questions and more.
You can hear us on SoundCloud at https://soundcloud.com/ctb-5/ctb-podcast-55-2014-training-1 .
You can also subscribe to the podcast through iTunes at http://feeds.soundcloud.com/users/soundcloud:users:64011415/sounds.rss .
The team plays better when Delly’s on the floor. His individual stats don’t necessarily prove it, but team stats should. Everybody else’s game elevates when he’s playing. He doesn’t get credit for that, but he should. The team’s biggest problem last year was that – aside from Delly and Varejao – they didn’t have anybody that made others play better. Delly is better than most people here know . . . and he’s going to get his minutes. Blatt is one who’s savvy enough to know his value. I hate analytics. Not because they’re not useful, but because those that… Read more »
Analytics have a role, but there are a million of them, they don’t measure everything, and they can be in conflict. For example, what index measures a key Delly strength: annoying the other team’s players, tiring out the point guard bringing the ball up the floor, etc? Also, sorry for sounding dismissive of Hot Sauce’s points above. They are OK points. I got into the “arguing zone” and kind of overamped my points. I have often argued both sides of some issue. Decades ago a friend and I drove to Key West and wound up arguing for days about if… Read more »
Actually, the Cav’s have done pretty good with undrafted shooting guards. Remember Bobby Phills? The Hornets and Pelicans are currently fighting over who gets to have his retired Jersey.
Bobby Phills was undrafted? Wow, didn’t know that. *RIP Bobby*
If he was drafted, he was cut, because the Cav’s picked him up from the D-League, or whatever they had back then. As I recall, he was an instant rotation player, and a starter the following year.
Andy playing more than 75 games is more likely than LBJ breaking the single-game scoring record? You guys are nuts. The single-game scoring record is Wilt’s 100. LBJ is not breaking that.
LeBron’s single game scoring record. Sorry if that wasn’t clear.
Ah, thanks. That makes more sense.
Starting lineups: I think Delly barely sees the floor this year (5-8 mins per game). I appreciate the love for him, but if Dion is not going to start, Miller will start at SG.
In terms of crunch time lineups, I think it will depend on the game. I think there will be lots of games where Miller is in there, or Marion is in there.
You would start an end of career guy whose best skill is some long range clutch shooting over an ultra high energy pesky defender? Have you ever played basketball?
Not sure if you listened to the podcast, but their was an argument made that Delly should start over Dion. I think Dion should start. BUT, if Dion were not to start, I think Miller is a much better fit with the starting lineup. That is my point. Do you really think Delly is going to start? Again, I like Delly, but the dude’s PER last year as 10.7. And he shot 37% from deep. He is not that good. He is a change of pace guy off the bench at most. Miller shot 46% from deep last year in… Read more »
Yep. And Delly’s defense is being overstated. He’s pesky, be he’d b exposed playing against starting two guards.
Miller’s TS was 62% last year! WOW.
Below are Delly and Miller’s stats from last year. Raoul, your position seems to be that it is crazy to even consider the notion that Miller is better than Delly. I would love to learn more about your basis for that. Are there Defensive metrics you can point to that would allow Delly to make up for the massive offensive advantage Miller has over him?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dellama01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millemi01.html
First, PER is not a great stat for guards. If you look at John Hollinger, its inventor, even he now seems to favor the Bayesian regression based stats like RAPM in the players he acquires… Second, when is 37% from deep a bad stat? Delly was also was 47% from the corners… Yes, Miller was a good shooter, but that’s all he was and he gave up more than he got… I’ve mostly abandoned PER as a stat, especially when it comes to guards. Delly posted a RAPM of 0 last year, and led all rookies with a SWAgR (wins)… Read more »
“Mike Miller’s true shooting was great, and Dion is great too. But the starting lineup doesn’t need four high usage starters. It needs defense. As to your point about two guards, the Delly game against Bradley Beal in Washington last year blows that out of the water.” Agreed – just look at the Miami lineups. They all fared better without Wade. It’s not that Wade isn’t the better player, it’s that there is a law of diminishing returns effect when lots of high usage players share the court together. People can rag on Delly all they want. If you watched… Read more »
Not “ragging on” Delly. He is one of my favorite Cavs. I just think lots of people are over weighting his value. Again, we are arguing about whether Delly should start on THIS YEAR’s Cavs. Not about whether he was a key bench player on LAST YEAR’s Cavs. The latter is not disputed. The former I feel is highly unlikely.
We’ll see how Blatt decides to use him. Not going to get into this long back and forth.
Right but how is Nate’s example not a great argument for starting Delly? Danny Green was a 4 year college player that couldn’t (still can’t) create his own shot but with good shooting numbers. The Cavs cut him (give me a second to wipe my tears). He starts for the World Champion Spurs, provides solid defense and knock down shooting. He’s no where near Manu Ginobili in terms of talent or skillset. Yet, it works out great there. I mean that’s just a great example – whether you think it will shake out that way on the Cavs is your… Read more »
The only position I am defending is that it is very unlikely Delly will start. I believe that is so because Dion is going to start. If Dion does not start, I think Miller will start. I have stated my reasons above. Miller stretches the floor MUCH more than Delly does, and with LBJ and Kyrie on the floor, stretching the floor is critical. Delly is CERTAINLY a better defender than Miller. But Miller certainly stretches the floor much more than Delly. Based on what Blatt has said about his vision of basketball, I think Miller will start over Delly… Read more »
Well now you are misrepresenting your original argument, which, for me, boiled down to this: “Not sure if you listened to the podcast, but their was an argument made that Delly should start over Dion. I think Dion should start. BUT, if Dion were not to start, I think Miller is a much better fit with the starting lineup. That is my point. Do you really think Delly is going to start? Again, I like Delly, but the dude’s PER last year as 10.7. And he shot 37% from deep. He is not that good. He is a change of… Read more »
Right Hot Sauce. There’s no way Delly is starting. Not over Dion. Certainly not over Miller. Can’t the season begin so we can stop this Delly nonsense?!
I agree with your points about Miller as a floor stretcher. But I don’t know how much floor stretching the starters are going to need. I’ll also admit that I didn’t watch a lot of Memphis last year to judge Mike Miller’s lofty shooting percentages, but I do know that James Jones was a beneficiary of the lack of attention paid to him. Who’s to say that Delly wouldn’t benefit similarly? He did shoot 47% from the corners last year: nothing to sneeze at.
The lineup stuff is hard to predict. The only known in this equation is LeBron imo. Love could transform his game away from post play, Varejao, Love, and Kyrie could all suffer injuries. Dion could take that next step and start finishing at the rim (and the foul line). Kyrie could shore up the defense and become much better off the ball. My prediction is that Kyrie, Dion, and Tristan will look a lot like they did last season with moderate efficiency increases across the board. In that event, guys like Varejao and Delly are going to help a lot… Read more »
I guess arguing about Delly vs. Miller is a good problem to have. We can all agree on that.
Generally, it will be fascinating to watch how Blatt uses the roster and which lineups evolve as “regular lineups.
First off, I don’t watch nearly as many games as most of you do, so I might not have as good an idea of the details of various players strengths. But I know the value of a fast pest who can consistently play a one man press. You ever try to bring the ball up the floor when the other team has a guy like that? You want Delly in the game early so he can tire out the other team’s ball handlers, for as many minutes as he can go full tilt. Miller’s value increases as the game goes… Read more »
Wait, they don’t actually think that Delly is going to start do they? Please please tell me that’s not on the podcast. Delly is going to be lucky to get 5-10 minutes a game. We have Mike Miller, Dion Waiters, Shawn Marion, we don’t really have a lot of minutes for a limited player like Delly. The Cavs spent the offseason shoring up the backup guard position by signing Mike MIller and James Jones. They are also still trying to get Ray Allen. If they actually thought that Delly was starting material, they wouldn’t have spent the time and money… Read more »
Those guys are on the team cause they’re ‘Bron’s buddies, not because they’re actually still good… Actually, James Jones was never good in the first place.
Delly is going to play by default. The only other point guard on the team aside from Kyrie is AJ Price. Furthermore, what backcourt player would you label defensive, rather than offensive? Not every guy can score thats on the court or else you get some grumpy guys. Delly will help keep people un-grumpy, which is always a good thing.
Except Delly is a tremendously bad point guard who had trouble dribbling up the court in the summer league. He can’t be counted to bring it up.
He can be counted on to provide energy! and hustle! which is why I think people are trying to make him to be more than what he is. What he is not is talented. And talent wins out generally in the NBA. It’s great that he tries hard, but it’d be better if he could actually play well.
5-10 minutes a game at most for that guy.
What are you talking about? Delly had 14 assists to 12 turnovers in summer league — not great numbers — but I saw nothing in summer league or in FIBA play that led me to think he was turnover prone. He was also third in assists in Summer league. Most of his problems were from guys being out of position, and, well, it being summer league. You know — practice. His assist to turnover ration in FIBA was 1.8. His assist to turnover ratio last season was an excellent 3.25. With better teammates? It could be even higher. I just… Read more »
Well, if that’s the case, they’ll lose some more games than they would have otherwise, cause Miller’s pretty washed up defensively. And it’s not like the Cavs have fantastic help defenders. I see Miller being the guy who plays 10 minutes a game…
Well, you are going to be very disappointed then. My guess is Waiters starts, Miller plays a lot, and Delly plays very little if at all.
Won’t be disappointed or not disappointed. Analytics dictates that they’ll be outscored a bit more with Miller getting Delly’s minutes. But again, I think you’re just trolling for an argument.
“Analytics dictates”? To what Analytics do you refer? Plus/Minus stuff from last year’s Cavs lineups?
I think those states are why everyone here loves Delly, but not sure why you think those numbers have any predictive power for the lineups of the 14-15 Cavs.
In terms of individual advanced metrics (PER, win shares, etc.) Miller last year dominated Delly.
See above. PER and win shares are so four years ago.
Hot Sauce, it’s not possible for us to win this argument. Once the season starts and Delly gets 5-10 minutes per game, then everyone will understand that the Delly starting nonsense was crazy talk. The Cavs front office is very analytics friendly and they realize that they needed more from the backup shooting guard positions. Which is why Miller and Jones and hopefully Ray Allen were brought in. If the FO thought that Delly was half as good as some at CtB seem to think, they would not have made those moves. Delly is an interesting bench/energy guy who is… Read more »
How often do 34 year old shooting guards contribute much to NBA teams? Not often. And the fact that you’re favoring James Jones, a guy who was healthy and played in only 58 games during the last two seasons over Delly kind of proves how far out in left field you are on this one.
How often do undrafted shooting guards who didn’t play all that well when going against backups or in garbage time contribute much to NBA teams? Not often. And the fact that you are favoring Delly to be considered a starter when the team has gone out of its way to bring in free agents who play the exact same position as he does kind of proves how far out in left field you are on this one.
No one they’ve brought in plays “the exact same position” as Delly. James Jones will never be a ball handling guard, neither will Miller. Delly, is a guard. Those guys are shooting wings. As I’ve said before, Delly was among the best rookies in the league in an admittedly underwhelming rookie class. I don’t know where you’re getting any of your “didn’t play that well” nonsense. For a rookie, Delly played very well. He just didn’t have huge box scores, but he was on some of the Cavs best lineups last year, and generally played his opponent to a draw,… Read more »
“How often do undrafted shooting guards who didn’t play all that well when going against backups or in garbage time contribute much to NBA teams?”
Here’s a quick list:
Wes Matthews
Jose Calderon
Jeremy Lin
JJ Berea
Cols, I’ll wait for your list of 34 year old shooting guards who contribute as a counter.
Delly will get about 15-20 minutes a game; Miller will get about 10. James Jones will be a DNP-CD for the majority of the season.
Darrell Armstrong
Raja Bell
Avery Johnson
Bruce Bowen
John Starks
David Wesley
Grover13.
There’s almost zero chance, unless he’s gotten much much better, that Delly is going to get 15-20 minutes a game. There’s also zero chance, unless injures of course, that Delly is going to get more minutes than Miller. Miller is by far the superior player.
Yes, keep repeating the same things over and over as opposed to countering our actual arguments.
The Cavs signed two players and are trying to sign anaother for backup SG. They clearly do not believe like you do that Delly is adequate.
I will be proven correct on the playing time thing. I’m done with this Delly nonsense.
You may be right in who plays, but I doubt it. Blatt is smarter than that, and will love having a low usage glue guy on the floor. As for your point about the Cavs signing other players. It’s simply the case that the Cavs only have three ball-handling guards likely to get any playing time — four if you count LeBron. Everyone else is a floor spacer/shooter, not an offense initiator. But Delly’s also great because he can play with or without the ball. Delly is not a pure one or two, he’s a combo guard, just like Kyrie,… Read more »
Your link to Kyrie’s “surreal” comment is broken!
Fixed. Thanks.