Northwest Division Preview

2014-10-09 Off By Ben Werth

Skinny no more.

Editor’s Note: This is the first in a six part series of division previews, here at CtB. Ben Werth tips it off with a Northwest Division preview. Key to every team in this series will be the teams’ additions, subtractions, storylines, and most importantly, the threat level they represent to the Cavs championship hopes (on a scale of 1-10).

Oklahoma City Thunder:

Coming off his first MVP award, Kevin Durant is poised to take the next championship step in his NBA career.  At least that is the narrative for an OKC Thunder squad that remains largely intact after a quiet off-season. The 2013-2014 team was arguably the second best team in the NBA after losing a tough Western Conference Finals to the Spurs. A rested Kevin Durant(sans USA play) and healthy seasons from Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka should ensure another 60 win season.

Additions: Mitch McGary (rookie), Anthony Morrow (New Orleans), Sebastian Telfair.

Subtractions: Caron Butler (Detroit), Thabo Sefolosha (Atlanta) Derek Fisher (Knicks coach) Hasheem Thabeet (Pistons)

Storylines:

1. How much better will Steven Adams be in year two? The 21 year-old Kiwi should play big minutes and establish himself as an effective two-way center. One would assume Kendrick Perkins will be demoted from the starting lineup sooner rather than later.

2. Of course, any logical assumption that relies on Scott Brooks’ basketball acumen is dicey at best. Brooks probably received too much criticism early in his career than was warranted. However, recent seasons have seen little strategic progress. The Thunder continue to rely purely on the incredible individual talent of its stars. I am not one to bash Russell Westbrook’s shot selection. What is more disappointing is the lack of creativity in the Thunder offense. Brooks hasn’t helped Durant to establish better pre-catch position with any interesting off-ball action. As Scott Brooks enters his seventh NBA season as head coach, he is rightfully on a short leash.

Cavs Championship threat level: 9

If Brooks ever figures out how to harness the talent on this squad, the NBA will be in trouble. With insane length and athleticism at every position, the Thunder could negate the Cavs’ transition game (all Cavalier strengths are theoretical). David Blatt would do his best to bait Russell Westbrook into taking deep jumpers. The Cavs new head coach absolutely subscribes to the Popovich line of thinking. Regardless of occasional success, Blatt will play the percentages. The Cavaliers depth advantage would be challenged by the possible emergence of the Thunder’s youth. Perry Jones could be primed to make big strides with increased playing time a year after Reggie Jackson’s coming out party.  Durant vs ‘Bron, Kyrie vs Westbrook and Ibaka vs Love? That would be some entertaining basketball.

Prediciton: 63-19  Lose Conference Finals.

Alas, Scott Brooks will put a roof on this seemingly limitless team. Even with a healthy Ibaka, the Thunder don’t get past the Spurs.

Portland Trail Blazers:

 

Get over that pick!

As the Blazers got off to a 9-2 start last season, many NBA gurus questioned whether it could last. The answer, of course, was “yeah, kinda!”  Coach Terry Stotts and LaMarcus Aldridge led a dynamic starting five to 54 wins and a trip to the second round of the playoffs. LA had a breakout season by drilling an obscene number of deep jumpers with a sweet flick of the wrist. Damian Lillard become a sensation and Nicolas Batum continued to be overlooked.

Additions: Steve Blake (Golden State), Chris Kaman (Los Angeles Lakers).

Subtractions: Mo Williams (Minnesota)

Storylines: 

1. Has Aldridge really turned himself into a Nowitzkian assassin, or was his 2013-2014 season a fluke? The answer is neither. The only real difference in LA’s production last year from his previous seasons was his usage percentage. Yes, his monster first round performance against the Rockets was a joy to watch. He is certainly a very good player. But he is not truly an MVP type talent.

2. Guard production: Damian Lillard is a talented 24 year old guard. Has he already peaked? Is C.J. McCollum ready to contribute? How much better is Steve Blake than Mo Williams for this squad. Answers: Yes, yes, and slightly.

Cavs Championship threat level: 5

The Blazers’ starting lineup is incredibly talented, but has a definitive limit. No one in that five is about to take a leap.

Prediciton: 51-31 Lose Second Round.

The offense will continue to hum. Chris Kaman could actually provide some good minutes as a post threat when Aldtridge sits. It is still not enough in a tough conference.

Denver Nuggets:

 

Missing piece?

 

A season after winning 57 games with George Karl at the helm, the 2013-14 Nuggets stumbled to an injury and identity plagued 36 win season. Brian Shaw finally got his shot at the top position and failed pretty spectacularly. His slow-it-down approach didn’t sit well with an active squad. Despite (or because of) all the “Shaqtin a Fool” highlights that the venerable JaVale McGee provides, he was sorely missed last season. A healthy McGee coupled with Arron Afflalo’s return should help Shaw improve in his second campaign. The Team USA version of Kenneth Faried wouldn’t hurt either.

Additions: Arron Afflalo (Orlando), Erick Green (rookie). Gary Harris, Jusef Nurkic

Subtractions: Aaron Brooks (Chicago), Evan Fournier (Orlando), Anthony Randolph, Jan Vesely. Jordan Hamilton (Raptors)

1. The Nuggets starting backcourt is a treat to watch. Both Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo somehow continue to be underrated every season. Can Afflalo improve his scoring average for the seventh consecutive year? The fiery duo should be a headache for opposing teams.

2. Which center gets traded to help a real team? Timofey Mozgov and JaVale McGee seem to be discussed in every trade involving the center position. Either player would be incredibly helpful for a championship contending team. Mozgov grew as a rim protector and rebounder last season with McGee out. JaVale is still only 26 and though he is unlikely to develop into a fantastic positional defender, his ridiculous athleticism still makes him a force on both ends.

Cavs Championship threat level: 2

The Nuggets are in no danger of getting out of the first round. A playoff appearance would be a victory after the turmoil in Shaw’s first season. However, the Nuggets are more likely to punt this season if a good trade opportunity comes.

Prediction: 38-44  Brian Shaw is given a “vote of confidence” before being fired next summer.

 

Minnesota Timberwolves: 

 

We’re number ones!

The 2013-2014 Wolves featured a bruising frontcourt and a Spanish pretty boy who…. oh who am I kidding? Cavs: The Blog really only cares about two guys.

Additions: Thaddeus Young (Sixers), Andrew Wiggins (rookie via Cleveland), Anthony Bennett (Cleveland), Zach LaVine (rookie), Mo Williams (Portland).

Subtractions: Kevin Love (Cleveland) A.J. Price (Cleveland), Alexey Shved

Storylines:

1. Andrew Wiggins. Remember him? Cavs fans have gone very quickly from refusing to part with him in any trade talk to completely and utterly denying his existence. Let’s be honest. He is going to be great. We will never know how great he would have been next to LeBron, regardless of how well he develops in Minny. Rubio should set him up with bevy of highlights. He will likely win Rookie of the Year. I wish him all the best. Hopefully, he will lose to the Cavs in a future Finals.

2. Anthony Bennett. See above and replace the word “great” with “pretty ok!” I’m a fan of the player we have affectionately called “Gum Drop Bear.” He can still develop into a high level starter in the league, if not the borderline All-Star that we envisioned. His ability to rebound and defend the post is underrated.

Cavs Championship threat level: 0  (or *10)

*Depending on how one interprets “threat level,” the Love/Wiggins trade affects the Cavs’ championship future more than any other team.

Somehow Flip Saunders is the Head Coach, President of Basketball operations and part owner of an NBA team in 2014. This does not bode well for a team’s championship aspirations. But, heck he’s from Cleveland, so GO FLIP!!!

Prediction: 24-58. The Wolves will be entertaining to watch with all the talent on the wing. I love watching Nikola Pekovic pound people under the rim without ever seeming to jump. Rubio continues to be a mystery for better and for worse. But, youth gets hammered in the NBA.

 

 Utah Jazz:

We’ll miss you, Andris.

Also mildly interesting.

How this team expects to compete without Andris Biedrins is a total and utter mystery. In less exciting news, the Jazz drafted an Aussie phenom and matched the Hornet’s restricted offer to Gordon Hayward. Still, someone will be charged with taking Biedrins’ place. It will be a difficult task for new Jazz coach (frantically googling “Utah Jazz new head coach”) Quin Snyder!!!  He has great hair.

I’m not Tyrone Corbin!

Additions: Dante Exum (Rookie) Trevor Booker (Washington), Carrick Felix (Cleveland), Steve Novak (Toronto). Jack Cooley!!!

Subtractions: Diante Garrett (Toronto), Richard Jefferson (Dallas), John Lucas III (Boston via Cleveland), Erik Murphy (Boston via Cleveland), Brandon Rush (Golden State), Malcolm Thomas (Boston via Cleveland), Marvin Williams (Charlotte) Andris Biedrins!!!

Storylines:

1. Full disclosure: I love Rudy Gobert. His game against Spain might have been the most entertaining thing about the FIBA World Cup. Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter will be less boring to watch with Gobert suited up beside them.

2. The law firm of Burke and Burks is likely going to make it difficult for Exum to see extended playing time in his first year. I think the rookie guard will end up being a good player, but agent, Rob Pelinka deserves some kind of award for work he has done inflating Exum’s profile. You may remember Pelinka from 2012. He was the genius that moved Dion Waiters all the way to number 4 overall.

Cavs Championship threat level: -2

No analysis needed.

Prediction: 21-61. There is some good talent on this team, but not nearly enough shooting. Exum averages fewer than 20 MPG and is prematurely called a bust.

Share