A Grumpy Old Cavs Fan
2014-08-06Cleveland has three of the last four No. 1 draft picks on its roster. The best player in the NBA is putting on a Cavs uniform this fall. The Cavaliers are the most buzzworthy team in the NBA. So what’s my problem?
First, let me just get this out there. The “plan” to trade Kevin Love for Andrew Wiggins is the biggest example of groupthink since the invasion of Iraq. My thoughts on the matter are on record. But let me just reiterate the key points.
- Kevin Love won’t produce the same scoring and rebounding numbers on the Cavs as he did with the Wolves. His rebounding is redundant (Cavs were 10th in rebounding differential last year — without LeBron), and a large amount of his projected wins and PER that everyone is using to argue his effectiveness are based on rebounding that won’t be duplicated in Cleveland.
- Kevin Love is injury prone, and he’s being added to a team with three other injury prone players in Waiters, Irving, and Varejao.
- Kevin Love doesn’t solve the Cavs biggest weakness, interior defense.
- Andrew Wiggins gives the Cavs much more financial stability over the next four seasons, and provides perimeter defense and has the potential to be a star. (70% percent of No. 1 picks develop into stars, and 95% into solid starters according to Nate Silver).
- But I’ll be honest. There are counterarguments to all those points that are perfectly reasoned, and Love is among the best for his position as a shooter, finisher, and passer. But no one has any counterargument to fact that Kevin Love can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, that it is in his financial interest to do so, and that there is absolutely no guarantee that he or LeBron are coming back in the summer of 2015.
So why the hell would the Cavs entertain this insanely crazy risk? LeBron freaking James. According to the latest Windy/Simmons podcast, “At this point LeBron James is basically a functional co-owner of the Cavs.”
LeBron is basically saying, “Listen, we’re gonna trade for Kevin Love.”
“We’re trading for a potential all-star in Wiggins for a guy we only control for one year?”
“OK, well, we’re gonna trade for Kevin Love.”
Oy. This is the second thing sticking in my craw. After LeBron left in 2010, there were two types of Cleveland Cavaliers fans: people who watched for about 20 games before giving up in 2010 — we’ll call them Cleveland fans — and people that suffered through four brutal seasons of rebuilding — we’ll call them Cavs fans. Cavs fans formed a new relationship with the a group of young players and lived and mostly died with each game. After probably the roughest season of our fandom — the year the team was finally supposed to be good — the year we had to suffer through Mike Brown again — a miracle happened. The Cavs got the No. 1 pick in the draft. And not just any No. 1 pick: Andrew Wiggins, the most highly anticipated prospect since… LeBron freaking James.
So we lived through the giddiness of draft night, and then we were treated to a free agency period where we waited with baited breath to see if the best basketball player in the world really was “coming home.” For me, it was a bittersweet. When the announcement came out, I spent a lot of time thinking about how my life and the lives of die-hard Cavs fans would change. We would no longer have to root for a loser. The Cavs would no longer be provincial — for the good and ill that brings. Most importantly, this thing that we loved that was a badge of knowledge perseverance, would become something everyone would embrace… again. The almond-milk-sipping wannabe hipster in me resented that a little, and also, that we’d have to deal with the circus and the quest for control that is the LeBron James show.
Fast forward to now. Because LeBron wrote a letter to Northeast Ohioans that magically repaired two seasons of quitting in the playoffs, and four years rubbing our noses in the sands of South Beach, we fans who stuck with this team for four years are just supposed to say, “OK, LeBron, you run the team. So what if our team is trading the their ability to compete for a championship for seven straight years, for a one year shot?” There are those of us — myself included — who are emotionally invested in Andrew Wiggins. I was jumping up and down in my living room when Cavs got the number one pick. I barely slept at all that night. Dreams of ‘Drew danced in my head. Over the next few weeks, we fell in love with the kid. The pictures of his vertical leap and his mile wide smile were iconic. And then in Summer League, Wiggins flashed jaw dropping potential.
And after sitting through four years and days of speculation about James returning, it’s come to this. I just don’t know if I have it in me to give LeBron my heart again. I rooted against him for so long. It’s completely irrational, but I’d rather root for Andrew Wiggins on the Cavs than LeBron James.
Obviously, I’m in the extreme minority with that opinion. Everybody loves a winner. And now that people who haven’t watched a Cavs game in four years are back in the fold, I’m in the minority these days about most of the Cavs’ offseason additions. As Simmons said in that podcast, “When players make front office decisions, the history is not good.” Mike Miller? James Jones? They haven’t been able to guard anyone in years. Rumored deals with Ray Allen and Shawn Marion? I don’t hate the idea of Ray Allen. His influence on LeBron’s diet alone can be a benefit (LeBron’s lost over 10 pounds already this summer, by cutting the carbs). Allen is possibly the most well trained athlete in the NBA. But Shawn Marion? He’s 36, and he’s quietly slipped to a below average NBA player, with a combined RAPM of -1.77, including -.51 on defense — his supposed calling card. They say LeBron might have an eidetic memory, but that memory might be a curse when it comes to being a GM. ‘Bron probably remembers the Marion that beat him in the Finals, and not the one who posted a sub-14 PER last year, and posted .316/.167/.556 shooting splits in the playoffs.
What did we learn from the Spurs over the last two years? That a team with nine good players can beat a team with three great players, and that you can run to win. This Cavs team is shaping up to be kind of a mess: no defense shooters (Kyrie, Waiters, Jones, Allen, and Miller); average defenders (LeBron, Kevin Love, Dellavedova, and maybe Marion); Andy (a very solid 1.97 dRAPM); and odd duck, Tristan Thompson. Can this team run? You’d think with Kevin Love, LeBron, Waiters, and Delly, they might be able to, and Ray Allen is one of the best shooters in the game on the secondary break. They’ll rebound, but are they going to generate enough turnovers and blocks to run? Are they going to break Kyrie of his penchant for walking the ball up the court? I’m skeptical, and I seriously worry about getting past teams with good centers: Charlotte, Chicago, Washington, and San Antonio. Can LeBron and Blatt solve that problem?
Dan Gilbert has said “he’ll never allow another player to hold his organization hostage.” (Jason Lloyd paraphrased that quote). Technically, I guess Dan’s lived up to his word, since it’s the same player holding his team hostage that did it before. The madcap pursuit of LeBron’s wishes has already cost the Cavs a tragically ill-advised trade to clear cap space for James. That deal saw Zeller, Karasev, and a first rounder leave town. A two week search for a better partner would have made that trade not nearly so painful. Giving in to ‘Bron’s petulance cost Cleveland there, and now LeBron the Owner seems to be populating the team with a lot of his buddies who are the losing end of the age battle. It all comes back to the WWPD (What Would Pop Do) principle. Great organizations let people do their jobs and empower them to do them well. They don’t fill their ranks with cronies and has-beens. Pop doesn’t try to run everything. He’s not scouting the summer leagues, Europe, and colleges. He’s trusting the judgment of the scouts and front office people whose responsibility it is to gather that information. LeBron should heed that lesson. He can’t do everything, and running the team as his own personal party boat isn’t going to end well. He should let David Griffin do his job, but it looks like it’s too late now.
As Windhorst said at the end of that podcast, LeBron James is the second most powerful person in the NBA right now after Adam Silver. And Windhorst followed that up with LeBron’s word on the Wiggins for Love deal: “He says it’s done.” So there you go. People like myself are going to have to eventually tire of kicking and screaming. We’ll warn of our impending I-told-you-sos while secretly hoping we’re wrong, but there’s not much seemingly that can be done to fight the power on this one. The masses want “a title” and lots of people — seemingly LeBron included — have convinced themselves that this Wiggins & Bennett for Love swap is the way to bring Cleveland its first in over fifty years. I’m not one of those people. Not that I don’t think it can work, I just don’t want a title more than I want to watch the guys I love grow.
…but…
That’s not remotely fair to Cleveland fans. On the Dan Patrick Show, Scott Raab had one sentence to describe what it’s like to be a Cleveland fan.
The Sports Teams are only the most visible part of a 50 year downward spiral for that city, and now that, at least potentially, it will turn itself around, people will walk a little taller, and that’s a big deal in Cleveland.
I’m not a Clevelander, and I grew up 3000 miles away from here. So I don’t know what it’s like to feel like it did on the evening of July 8th, 2010 for 50 years straight. In my first blog post, I wrote then what made that moment so bad.
It sucked because it seemed as if the place I lived, the things I loved, the people I knew – they just weren’t good enough, and every time I turned on the TV, the radio, the computer… I was reminded of that.
So I get it. LeBron coming back is a big deal. I just want it to be for the right reasons, and want the guy to have a little humility. I don’t want to feel used again, and I fear LeBron doesn’t know what he’s doing as a GM and that he’ll stab me in the heart again. But I don’t have any control over how James lives his life or runs this team. I’ve just got to have faith, I guess. People in Cleveland and Northeast Ohio deserve to walk a little taller. Who am I to begrudge them their desire for that? The Wiggins thing sucks. It makes me mad. I don’t have to like it, but I’ll come to accept it. That’s what fandom is: a never-ending playoff game between acceptance and hope.
“There are those of us — myself included — who are emotionally invested in Andrew Wiggins. I was jumping up and down in my living room when Cavs got the number one pick.”
This is probably the telling line in the whole article. So many fans are more invested in being RIGHT about their player evaluations than actually having a winning basketball team. Those who believe in Bennett are hating that he’s getting traded. They so desperately want to be proven right, moreso than seeing what’s right for the franchise done.
I’m late to the party- I don’t like Nate’s implications that no true Cavs fan wants this trade or is happy LeBron is back. I sat through four years of Joey Graham, Jamario Moon, Alonzo Gee, and Earl Clark playing at the 3. I sat through four years of Byron Scott and Mike Brown looking like they’re trying to figure out where the heck they went wrong. I sat through 4 years of some of the worst basketball imaginable. I was actually concerned the Cavs would become the Clippers East. So yes, I am super happy that the best player… Read more »
I think a Lebron and Love team would win 60+ also but the team as is plus a few more scraps is a 57+ win team, except with a much brighter future.
Would anyone here suggest Washington go after Durant after this season when he has one year left with the Thunder and give up Beal, a SL surprise in Porter and a boat load of picks. No because they could,keep all that and get him next summer if he wanted to be there? Same for Love here, we have Haywood’s contract next summer.
If Lebron opted in to MIA and said he was coming here next year would we give up Wiggins to Miami to get him a year early or just wait till next summer?
The Cavaliers cannot sign Love outright. Even if he tries to force a trade, unless he agrees to sign for whatever open cap space the Cavs have (which will be well below the max), the Cavs will be unable to sign Love. Basically the Cavs have less leverage than everyone is crediting them. The Wolves can simply call Love’s bluff and keep him, forcing Love to sign with a team that has max space.
The Cavs could simply give away Wiggins and Bennett for future ones, even the 2015 first pick and clear space that way. But they would have Love and let’s say for instance the 20 future first rounders Boston would give for Wiggins and Bennett.
The Cavs could simply trade picks and scraps for Thad Young this year, then complete a sign and trade for Young and Love next year.
Haywood contract can be traded for a guy that makes 15 million next summer.
This is sure a fun debate!
I think it is safe to say that no one knows if the trade will turn out to be a good idea or not; short term and/or long term.
Either way, it will be a fun year. Go Cavs!!!
You always write exactly how I feel. Love the work, keep it up
People act like this team will be garbage without Love. I don’t get that. They are almost certainly going to win the East without him.
People forget how good Kyrie is, and how ridiculously elite the Kyrie/Lebron duo will be. Throw in Waiters, Wiggins, Varejao…team would still be spectacular without Love.
Even if Wiggins is just an “average” #1 overall pick, this team is a #1 or #2 seed in the east. And again, I don’t see a move for Love getting us over the Spurs/Thunder/Clippers hump this year either way.
I’d be 100% fine with moving AB, expirings, and a pick or even two for a big on a decent contract. We don’t need to go all in, at least not until we see what we have.
How about these Chauncey Billups rumors? Does this guy have anything left in the tank?
Meh. Pretty sure I’d rather see Joe Harris get some minutes than Billups.
He could be an okay coach, though.
Is it me, or is there something Stockholm Syndrome-like about rooting for losing teams? I remember talking to a long-time Red Sox fan after they won their most recent World Series and he was talking almost nostalgically about the days when they were forever cursed. When people start talking like this, or when Nate writes that winning the right way (paraphrasing here) is more important than winning at all, it’s the talk of someone who has lost for a long time. As a fan base, we have been horribly abused for a very long time. Fans of other teams are… Read more »
As I told Hot Sauce above, your side appears to have won the war. Is it required for the rest of us that you control our opinions, too? I don’t need your Soma prescriptions. :)
You’re right Nate. I fell into trap #1 in therapy 101: don’t tell the patient how to think or feel. I never was very good at therapy. And Xanax and Prozac, not Soma. Get your pharmaceuticals right, man.
Josh – SERIOUSLY? You consider Wiggins to be equal in value (in terms of potential, current ability, and contract) to the last two MVPs, the player universally acknowledged as the next transcendent talent, the best true PG since Stockton, and the best center since Shaq?
I have no words for this…Seriously…Wow.
Noel on that list for fit… I’d consider Noah, Blake, Mike Conley, Taj Gibson… Marc Gasoline too if he wasn’t on a one year deal. Heck I’d consider a locked up Love… Mal, your side is seriously underestimating the contract issue.
Yes Mallory, I would. I’d consider Noel as well, and Noah. Blake less so, but I’d think about it. Definitely not Conley or Gibson, but that’s just me. Gasol on an extended contract, sure, as long as it’s not a max deal. Love on a long term max? Yeah, I’d think about it. But even then, I’d probably prefer Wiggins on a rookie contract.
Sorry that economics is a thing I think about. It seems to offend some people. *shrug*
Even before they play a single minute in the pros, an NBA #1 overall draft pick is one of the most precious commodities in all of sports. The combination of contract and upside is generally unparallelled. The prospect of Wiggins someday turning into one of those greats you mentioned is reason enough for most GMs to want to hold onto that player, even when an elite in-his-prime player is being offered. Snagging the best player out of an entire year of prospects is always a big deal, and Wiggins is no ordinary #1 pick.
Mallory Factor II says: August 6, 2014 at 2:44 pm (Edit) I’m a little late to the whole conversation, but one that has jumped out at me is the argument that keeping Wiggins and Bennett allows the Cavs flexibility and retains assets. The question is what exactly do the Cavs do with the flexibility and assets? Wasn’t the whole point of gathering cap space and high caliber prospects to land a top player? Isn’t that what’s happening here? Everyone is over-thinking this WAY too much, which is bound to happen when there’s so much time between this trade discussion, the… Read more »
Anthony Davis, Lebron James if we didn’t have him, KD, CP3, maybe Dwight.
That’s probably about it, considering contracts.
You’d trade Wiggins for CP3? On what planet would that be a better trade than Wiggins for Love?
Considering we already have a PG making max money (Irving) and sure as hell don’t need FOUR players who demand the ball to be effective (LeBron, Kyrie, Dion, CP3), I think that trading Wiggins for Paul would be an awful, awful trade.
I’m talking straight up value. If I was looking at fit CP3 might not be on that list, but as far as pure value I’d say he’s more valuable than AW. Not many others are.
Exactly. Maybe Kyle Korver+Al Horford in concert. But there would be no way to make that money work. Anthony Davis is the only player I’d rather have on this roster than Love. (If Howard hadn’t had back issues already he would merit consideration)
You need to talk to your co-writer. He’s the one that has no idea what he’s talking about. Most commenters are on board with getting Love. I hate losing Wiggins, but it gets us Kevin Love. It’s OK to have a little bit of hesitation but it’s going to get us 4-5 years of almost automatic Finals appearances. It’s awesome.
CtB needs someone to edit the content when a writer is so completely and obviously wrong.
Cols, give it a rest. I don’t agree with Nate’s opinion either, but it’s AN OPINION. I know you sometimes struggle with the difference between opinion and fact. It’s fine to disagree with someone’s opinion; it’s not fine to treat your own opinions as fact and to suggest that an opinion piece needs edited for content – so someone else should edit Nate’s opinion? It wouldn’t be Nate’s opinion then. LOL, you are a real trip, man.
Regardless of who is traded or not traded, the Cavs roster is going to look remarkably different this year than last. We have no idea how all the pieces will fit together with a new head coach making his own NBA debut. Since we have no idea how good or bad the team could end up being this year, I would say it is important to retain some degree of flexibility so that you can continue to shuffle the pieces and attempt to build the best final product.
At the very least, we have nothing to lose by letting LeBron play with the kids for a few months before deciding we should sell it all to get a player like Love. That’s the one thing that’s bugging me: if the trade goes down this month, then we’ll never know what could have been. If we aim for the midseason trade deadline at least we can have a preview of our other option
I don’t know enough about sign-and-trade specifics, but wouldn’t it be possible for the cavs to sign and trade for Love next season? They could package Heywood’s nonguaranteed deal plus a couple of other players, draft picks, etc. They’d get a guaranteed 5 years of Love and keep Wiggins. It seems to me that this is far better than completing a trade now. Also, it seems that Cleveland is bidding against itself here. None of the other offers for Love come close to what the Cavs are offering. Zach Lowe was discussing this on his podcast. If you look at… Read more »
I love you guys and am drawn to reading the articles and comments like moth to a flame. But am I the only one who wants this done and resolved so we can watch an exciting Cavs team PLAY? With Wiggins/Bennett OR Love, we will still be a VERY good team. The nitpicks are tedious and, working in the press, I understand the need to produce content that forces discussion, but lately it has been all the SAME discussion. How many more times can everyone rehash the same arguments? Whenever I had to deal with my unreasonable ex-wife, I always… Read more »
Me too, John. Me too. Part of this article was cathartic for me. I just had to exercise the angst I had over the way this whole process is is playing out. I can’t wait for October.
Amen to that John. I like to push back on Nate ’cause he brings strong opinions. But, like Nate, I think either outcome (trade or no trade) is an insane 1000% improvement over last year.
My ex-wife does not like sports.
My girlfriend likes Andy V, and the hippie looking kid who pitches for SF.
Why does everyone claim Kevin Love is injury prone? He only had 2 seasons where he played less than 83% of the teams games, and one season where he missed less than 73%. His injury was a fluke injury and not chronic. I think people forget there was a strike in 2011-12 season and there were only 66 games that year. Here is his career breakdown: Season Games Percentage 08-09 81 / 82 98% 09-10 60 / 82 73% 10-11 73 / 82 89% 11-12 55 / 66 83% (STRIKE SHORTENED YEAR) 12-13 18 / 82 22% 13-14 77 /… Read more »
83% is not good. That would be missing 4-5 games in a deep playoff run.
Why does everyone keep saying Kevin Love is a top 5 player? Maybe he is, I don’t know. Likewise, lots of people said AW was the best prospect since LeBron. Maybe he is, I don’t know. I did see the summer league highlights. If I was picking a team in a gym, I would say, “Gimme that guy”. Imagine what it was like for the guys picking up in the Univ Houston gym the day Hakeem walked in looking for a soccer game. I don’t think anyone in this “great debate” does not want KL. The issue is, are the… Read more »
Great article. This is a real angle. I do not wish for both Lebron and Kevin Love to leave after one season, but if they are both free agents it is a possibility. Kevin Love has no connection here, I believe has a fiance/girlfirend in LA,he is from the west coast, and will say anything to get out of Minnesota this year. If Love leaves, Lebron can go to another team that better fit his needs. As Windhorst said, he has an opt out to have maximum “flexibility.” That seems to indicate a willingness to leave. As far as backlash,… Read more »
The reports are that Love is only going to be traed for if he agrees to a long term deal. So the assumption that we may lose him after this season is just simply wrong.
Actually more recent reports have Love not committing to an extension with any team, because it would not be in his best interest financially. From what I’ve read, any team trading for him would have to gamble that he’ll resign.
Only Cleveland fans can actually be upset about adding a top 5 player in the league to play alongside the best player in the world. Oh, and that top 5 player is also 25 years old. Only 3 years older than Irving and Waiters. But yeah, let’s be upset at adding a guy that gives Cleveland it’s best title shot in 50 years. I get it. As Cleveland fans, we’re all used to the “worst case” playing out as reality. We all buy into the “us vs. them” mentality and for some reason, we feel like we must win a… Read more »
“nothing in sports is given” “if we add Kevin Love we are a finals team in those same seasons” Cummon man. Nothing in sports is given, which is why adding Love does not guarantee a title at any point. 29 teams every year fail to win a title; does that mean their season was a failure? The goal should be to remain as good as possible as long as possible, thereby delivering the best product to the fans. It takes a little luck to win a championship. Adding Love maximizes our potential for a chip in the next year or… Read more »
Why are you anticipating that this window ends in three years? Irving will be 25 Love 28 and Lebron 32. The window is open until Lebron retires.
This attitude of “if you don’t agree with this trade, you’re just a malcontent and a pessimist and also an idiot” is so condescending it makes me want to vomit. Yes, adding Kevin Love is a great thing. Yes, I think that keeping Andrew Wiggins is a much better option. Both things can be simultaneously true, and I can argue for the choice that I think is better and still recognize that either option is good. I can even get upset at making what I think is the wrong choice, even if it’s still a good option. And stop with… Read more »
Kind of like the hypotheticals of Andrew Wiggins someday being as good as Kevin Love already is today…
My hypothetical is actually more like by year three Wiggins is half as good and getting paid a quarter as much, meaning he’s giving you a better ROI, but whatever. Strawman if you’d like.
You’re right. I wasn’t fair on that one. My bad. I have heard you stating the exact hypothetical on several other posts.
Woah. I appreciate that you’re owning up to that. Thanks! Civility on the internet is so rare I don’t even know how to react to it.
You can take a post written using a keyboard and not spoken to you and try to clamor for a condescending nature all you want, but that’s just a baby attitude aimed at twisting my words into something that fits your argument and makes me out to be a bad guy. Get out of here. I understand arguments about the salary cap and I understand that Wiggins and Bennett could become very good players. I also agree that I would RATHER we not trade for Kevin Love and attempt to sign him in the offseason. But those beliefs are centered… Read more »
Five bucks says that Love doesn’t average 27/12 in a Cavs uniform.
Nate loves to use stats when he can complain about Cavs moves (such as who they “should” have drafted and why Shawn Marion would be a bad signing) and then dismisses statistics when he can still complain about Cavs moves (Loves statistics don’t count because he won’t get as many rebounds on this team). He has complained about just about every single move the Cavs have made since he started writing on this site. Last year he spent an entire season crying about who the Cavs drafted. Now we are trading that player and a guy who had a somewhat… Read more »
Yep. Yep yep yep yep
Maybe if he had hand problems once, it’d be a fluke. But he’s missed significant time for each hand. And he’s missed time for other reasons too. Dude has played 77+ games twice in 6 years.
And stats are big part of the strong push for Love. He’s not a good defender. If he were playing for the warriors and grabbing two less boards and getting 3-4 less shots all the while defending like David Lee, would people still be as frantic to acquire him for Wiggins?
He’s played 77 games twice in six years… what a misleading stat. First of all, you may remember there was a strike in ’11/’12. Kind of hard to play your arbitrary number of 77 games when only 66 total were played. The truth is he has missed significant time in only two of six years. And those were four seasons apart from each other. Other than those years, the lowest percentage of games he played was 83 percent. Then you factor in that Minny was terrible most of those years and not in any rush to send Love back out… Read more »
Love still missed 10 games in the shortened season, so he still wouldn’t have hit 77. 9-10 games is significant, especially when it is 10 ou of 66. Regarding Pelton, rather than taking a shot at you, I’ll point you to actual data.You already know Love’s an elite rebounder. Synergy rates him as an excellent post-up defender. But, in almost every other area he is below average or very bad. -Synergy ranks Love 49th out of 74 qualifying big men in PNR defense. Definintely below average. -Per NBA stats, Love ranks last in FG% allowed defending against shots at the… Read more »
He still played 83 percent of his games that season. His team was also 26-40 that year. Think they were rushing Love out on the floor after minor injuries? Losing teams keep their stars out longer than necessary. No use risking your best assets and ruining draft positions in lost seasons. The Cavs were pretty great at this the last four years.
Pelton wasn’t using his own stats. I’ll look up the article later to see exactly what he used. Regardless, my point wasn’t that Love WAS an above average defender, it’s that he’s not David Lee on defense.
Would it make any difference to you if Love was a defensive equivalent to David Lee? They both are god-awful at protecting the rim. (Love = ,6 blocks per 100 possession and 1.0 block%, Lee = .6 blocks per 100 possessions and 0.9 block%). Love definitely has the edge in rebounding- 29.5 DRB% vs 21.6 Lee plays on a better defense per Hollinger – 3rd most efficient vs 14th (tied with Atlanta) most efficient. In conjection with the last point, Lee possibly has a bigger impact on the defensive end- when Lee comes off GSW allows an extra 3.3 points… Read more »
@Josh. Great post. The irony of Nate being against a trade that involves Bennett is pretty amazing. I mean, Nate DOUBLED DOWN on his claim that Bennett was the “worst #1 pick ever” multiple times last year.
Another great point you make: Given that Nate shredded Bennett last year, this trade actually involves NONE of the young guys Nate has watched develop over the past few years. Its just Bennett (the worst #1 pick ever) and AW (who has never played for us). Amazing.
Hahaha! SO TRUE.
I agree. I truly believe that Love has been highy under rated by most Cavs fans. Dont just look at his stats, actually watch him play, and not just 1 or 2 games…watch him for 10-15 games. I think if you do, most who are opposed to this trade will change their minds.
Actually my statistics usage is very consistent. It’s been primarily informed by APM and RAPM for at least the last year. But, yes,, I realize the argument over whether Love is a top 10 player or a top 20 player is splitting hairs. I’ve never denied that Love is an excellent player. As for injuries: Love’s injuries mirror Andy’s a bit: fluke injuries that just keep piling up. I’ve not complained about every single move the Cavs have made since I started. I have offered my opinion on a lot of them, and my opinion was that many moves were… Read more »
The stats you use may be consistent. Where and when you choose to use them isn’t. You dismiss Loves previous stats by claiming he can’t put them up here, and then use other players previous stats to describe why they are terrible signings. Love’s injuries don’t mirror Andys in any way, shape or form. That is actually quite ridiculous. Varejao basically didn’t play for three straight seasons. Love’s second worst season injury wise was roughly the same as Varejao’s “healthy” season this year (60 games for Love 65 for Varejao). Basically Andy has had four consecutive seasons that are as… Read more »
Could not agree more.
Been reading this thread. I’m definitely in line with what Josh and Hot Sauce are saying. Thank you for taking the time to respond to this stuff, cause I’m at work right now and don’t have the time atm
I kinda have the same thoughts as to why dealing for Love is not the route I would favor. Would love to watch the young guns run around and play with Lebron leading them. Plus, a championship(s) with the Cavs core 4 would be so much sweeter than one where we bought players. (full disclosure: i’m also a yankees fan since the 80’s. Don Mattingly is my favorite player of all time. I love the Yankees teams of the late 90’s that were primarily built from within. I HATE these Yankees of CC Sabathia, Mark Texeira, ARod, and whoever else… Read more »
Your last point on TT is huge. I think most would agree that TT would be the easiest young player to part with, yet he’s never been mentioned in the trades. Whether this is because of the agent relationship or he’s that bad, is not a good sign.
Good post – rickoh. +1
Say the Kevin Love trade is a done deal and is the wise decision to make. What do the Cavs have to lose by waiting til the trade deadline to make the trade? Bennett’s value can ONLY go up after last year. LBJ will make all the young trade-bait look better. Do we really think that at this point another team is going to swoop in and snatch Love from the Wolves? We can always trump another offer with Wiggins if we catch wind of a move like that going down. I just don’t understand how the Wolves have gained… Read more »
How could you not want to at least see how LeBron James, top 5 all-time player, plays with 3 of the past 4 #1 overall draft selections before making such a huge move?
I like this idea a lot. Always have. Hold out as long as possible and see if you can keep AW somehow. My guess, though, is that the organization really sees this as a no-brainer. I think they view Love as essential and they want him in camp from Day 1 getting molded by Blatt, LBJ, etc. To me, the confidence and certainty with which they are executing this move says a lot about how they feel about Love vs. AW and AB. I think NBA guys like Griff appreciate how risky young talent is and how hard it is… Read more »
A good observation. Cavs brass must feel very strongly about the whole deal, not that they’ve ever publicly announced their intentions straight up. It assuages my fears a little seeing how confident and aggressive our front office has been
This whole piece boils down to this sentence:
“Not that I don’t think it can work, I just don’t want a title more than I want to watch the guys I love grow.”
This is why you’re against the trade? First of all, why is this an either/or proposition? Clearly, we can win and watch guys grow, even with a Love trade. Second, you clearly have issues. It’s ok to be a winner Nate. We don’t have to suffer anymore.
Yep. This is it exactly!!!!! Watching Love, Irving and LeBron over the next 4-5 years is going to awesome.
Sounds like we still have Waiters and Thompson and Delly too. Thats 5 guys 25 years or younger.
Clearly, Pouch. Even my issues have issues.
Cols, attacking Nate Smith as a writer without addressing his main concerns brings nothing of value to this blog. I agree with you that the center position is not a concern, but he said “interior defense.” Think Birdman, especially during their last championship winning run. Or simply acknowledge that the Cavaliers, as constructed, have no rim protection at all and Love adds nothing to that facet of the game. Also, did you ever address the fact that Kevin Love has NEVER played a full 82 game season in his career? I’m with you in the sense that I would embrace… Read more »
My stance is that I would like to keep Wiggins because I think he’s going to be very good. But I also feel that if we trade him for Love that’s also a good move. Having 3 great players is what wins championships. Especially when those 3 great players are surrounded by the secondary talent that the Cavs currently possess. I can understand wanting to keep Wiggins, I don’t understand this idea that having Kevin Love on the team, a top 5-10 NBA player makes the team worse or somehow lessens the impact of winning a title. It’s hogwash and… Read more »
The “3 great players” theory is the biggest bunch of crap in all of sports. For every winning team, someone anoints the best three players as “The big 3”. Every other team also has 3 best players, and do not win it all.
If any quants want to try to prove the “big 3” theory is correct, you will have to do some analysis showing that the gap between players 3 and 4 is somehow much bigger than the gap between 1 and 2, 2 and 3, 4 and 5, etc. Obviously no one has done such a study.
I don’t think so. Having 3 great players including one super duper star equals title. See the past however many NBA championship winners. The only team that won without a big 3 of late was the Mavericks.
Did you even read Raoul’s comment?
Fair. I look forward to being perennial contenders again!
Couldn’t have said it better.
Cols is justified this time. Nate sets up a bunch false narratives here. Lebron and Love aren’t leaving a potential 70 win team in a year or two. Even if one of them gets hurt they aren’t untradable like Dwade. His analysis of the past 2 finals was very weak. The fact is a big 2 and some shooters nearly beat a far deeper and overall more talented team 2 times. Wade was a poor man’s version of Dion Waiters in this years finals. The Spurs are also the greatest anomoly in sports. Its impossible to what the spurs do… Read more »
The most depressing part of listening to the Windy/Simmons podcast was when they theorized that the Miami Heat set the stage for losing LeBron when they gave up 6 draft picks in the sign and trade deals. They traded away their chances to grow young talent on cheap contracts. So…the Cavs are going to trade away the last two number one picks and potentially another first round choice which will trade away their chances to grow young talent on cheap contracts. I’m not saying the Cavs with Kevin Love aren’t a great championship contender. I’m saying the Cavs with Bennett,… Read more »
That was complete speculation on their part. I don’t want this to become one these “facts” that isn’t true. Just like the specuation that it was an owner to owner transaction to get Kevin Love. It was all BS and speculation and not based in any real reporting.
It was two dudes offering theories and rumors. let’s not pretend otherwise.
Also, the trading away of picks by Miami was particularly devastating for them because they had zero young talent in 2010, and Wade was clearly a risk to get old quickly. The Cavs situation is completely different. Love is in his prime and Kyrie, Dion, TT, Delly are young guys under contract who are already key contributors. LBJ is walking into a young team that has tons of organic growth built into its roster, so picks are much less important. Very different scenarios. The biggest risk of the Cavs situation, as I see it, is that the young talent doesn’t… Read more »
The reason Lebron left is D Wades knees. Period. End of Story.
Yep. Which is fine.
But if they had, say, four young first round draft picks on the team, how likely is it that Wade’s knees would have mattered that much? Or even been that bad, considering his wear and tear would be significantly reduced?
These things are connected.
Josh, are you comparing 2-4 late first round picks to D Wade in his prime?
We’re DRAMATICALLY overstating the value of late first round picks, guys. The Thunder just drafted a total project in order to not spend the money to sign him – it’s not like having late first rounders guarantees you a great player.
Umm….no? I’m saying that the combination of the fact that Wade’s knees were bad AND the fact that they had no first round picks made the situation worse than it would have been if they simply just had Wade’s bad knees. What I’m saying is that their replacement for Wade when he wasn’t playing well was much worse than it could have been, if they had picks, not that those picks would produce everything Wade did. Also I’m saying that if they had those players they could have probably played DWade (especially) and LBJ (somewhat) less in the season and… Read more »
The cap problem Kevin Love brings is huge and cannot be overcome for YEARS if things fall apart (or someone gets injured).
A month and a half ago over half of the Cavs fans were saying that Wiggins was going to be Lebron II. Their arguments were relentless and frequently derisive. It took resilience to stand against that onslaught.
WHERE DID ALL THOSE PEOPLE GO?
When you have Lebron, Love, and Kyrie, for the next 4-5 years, that’s excactly what you are supposed to do with the salary cap. Sign great players in their prime.
It wasn’t me or Cols or Hot sauce. From what I can tell the only guys who watched Wiggins at kansas this year. The salary cap will be a problem one way or the other. ANd if it does become an issue we can trade Irving or Love for a haul. Probably Irivng
So I take it that when Thompson, Waiters, Bennett and Wiggins are due for raises, you will let them walk? Those four are going to cause cap problems if we want to keep them around.
“Lebron II” is a little extreme but I think Wiggins is going to be a star and I’m opposed to trading him.
“But no one has has any counterargument to fact that Kevin Love can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, that it is in his financial interest to do so, and that there is absolutely no guarantee that he or LeBron are coming back in the summer of 2015.” This is dead wrong. The very simple counter-argument is that he has told his agent, LeBron, and Cavs he wants to be in Cleveland for the long haul, but that he also wants to wait another year to sign to get a better max deal. This seems… Read more »
” he has told his agent, LeBron, and Cavs”. How do you know this?
Maybe he has. Maybe not. The “experts” claiming inside info are all over the place about what Love will do.
Even if Love has in fact said that, how do you know he will not change his mind? Guess what? His agent will make more $ for himself if he talks Love into opting out.
I don’t know this. But Nate’s claim was that “no one has any counterargument.” The purpose of my post is to present a counterargument that is based on as much info as Nate’s “the sky is falling” argument. I believe I have done that. I am not implying there is no risk. I am implying that Nate is dramatically overstating the risk, which, in turn, distorts his argument. BTW, I assume he is opting out. I think that is given. My point is that once he opts out it is almost a certainty he will re-sign with the Cavs because… Read more »
What part of that statement that you quoted is an exaggeration? You didn’t have a counterargument. No one does. It’s the only part of my article that’s fact and not opinion. That’s the risk the Cavs take if they trade for Love: giving up guys they control for 5-7 years for a guy they control for one.
That can’t be argued. It just is. Though I guess the Monstars could come down and steal ‘Drew’s talent and rule as our basketball overlords. So that risk, which can’t be understated, is real.
The first part of the sentence is fact, but the last part is pure argument: “and that there is absolutely no guarantee that he or LeBron are coming back in the summer of 2015.” First, we can all agree that nothing is truly guaranteed in life. The world could explode tomorrow. So making the claim that there is “no guarantee” is silly. The question is: what is the probability that Love or LeBron leave after this year? The front office needs to gage that probability and make a risk/reward decision. To me, the chance LeBron leaves is 0%. The chance… Read more »
“But no one has has any counterargument to fact that Kevin Love can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, that it is in his financial interest to do so, and that there is absolutely no guarantee that he or LeBron are coming back in the summer of 2015.” 1. Kevin Love can opt out of his contract at the end of the season. – TRUE 2. It is in his financial interest to do so. – TRUE 3. There is absolutely no guarantee that he or LeBron are coming back in the summer of 2015.… Read more »
Do you guys know what guarantee means?
guarantee: a formal promise or assurance (typically in writing) that certain conditions will be fulfilled Interesting definition seeing as LeBron WROTE THIS: “what’s most important for me is bringing one trophy back to Northeast Ohio. I always believed that I’d return to Cleveland and finish my career there…I’m not promising a championship. I know how hard that is to deliver. We’re not ready right now. No way. Of course, I want to win next year, but I’m realistic. It will be a long process, much longer than it was in 2010. My patience will get tested…I want kids in Northeast… Read more »
Look, you guys brought up the semantic argument. If we’re arguing semantics, let’s do it. A guarantee is a formal commitment/promise/assurance. We don’t have that from either guy. Period.
You can argue that it’s incredibly unlikely LeBron leaves again (I would wholly agree with you) or that it’s incredibly unlikely Love leaves (I generally agree, but can easily think of a several hypotheticals where he doesn’t), but the fact is that we don’t have a guarantee, by the definition you provided.
@Josh VS – I completely agree. There is no guarantee. But we can discuss probabilities. While LBJ does not have a contractual guarantee to stay, I think he is 100% likely to stay for at least another contract. The basis of my claim is this SI article that Ross cited above and the aggressive way in which he has started doing community work in Akron since signing. I think Love is 95% likely to stay if he comes for the reasons I listed above Given that you are afraid Love will leave, what is the basis of that fear? Do… Read more »
I won’t put a percentage on it, but I am fairly confident that if Love comes, he won’t leave. I can, however, see a situation where he gets injured and misses major time, opts out, demands a max, and the Cavs decide they can’t afford it for another injury prone big and let him go, though. I can see a situation where the Lakers clear cap space, pull off a miracle trade to get someone Love really likes, and he decides he’d rather go home. I’m actually inclined to agree that he probably doesn’t leave. But let’s not argue that… Read more »
I sense you just love to argue. I’m not sure what you want from me. I’ve admitted that Love is probably coming to the Cavs and there’s nothing I can do to stop it. So all you’re railing against are my fears (which I wasn’t mongering, TYVM) and my opinions. Your side won the war. Leave us our angst.
Ha. I will leave you to the angst. Go Cavs!
I would also add that the one part of the post I did like was the obscure Dana Carvey reference. Good work there ;)
Thanks. I may have been a tad melodramatic. Appreciate the engagement.
Please tell me if I’m missing something: Kevin Love WILL NOT sign an extension upon being traded to the Cavs if he and his agent want to maximize profit. Kevin Love WILL seek a maximum contract following the 2014-15 season if he is not extended. IF Kevin Love signs a maximum contract the Cavs will have roughly $55 million tied up in 3 players (LeBron, Kyrie, Love) in the 2015-16 season. Other players signed through the 2015-16 season include Dion ($5.1 mil), Tristan ($6.8 mil), Haywood ($10.5 mil), Mike Miller ($2.9 mil), and Dellavedova ($1.1 mil), raising the salary total… Read more »
Yes. You are correct. Above Apron is punitive. But, again, we need to drill down on precisely how much Love’s deal would increase our Cap number vs. keeping AW, AB, and 1st round pick. AW+AB will make $11M this year, $11M in 2015, $13M in 2016, and $17M in 2007. Add another $1-2M for the first round pick we trade, and you end up with $12M, $12M, $14M, $18M, So Love is going to cost us nothing this year, and maybe $4-5M a year moving forward. That is not a huge difference. Anyway, I agree we need to be careful… Read more »
Thing is everyone keeps comparing AW, AB and those picks as the alternative to having Love. The way I see it is Wiggins will not be due a pay raise for 4 years. Bennett and those picks can be shopped in another trade for all I care and we could grab a rim protecting center. AW, AB and #1 picks are not one player, and can be divided up inter more components. That is where my concerns of flexibility come in. The goal should be to build a COMPLETE team and we still could use some interior and wing defenders… Read more »
That is a different argument. Your original argument was about how the Love move would devastate our salary cap position. And even if we pursue a strategy of keeping AW and trading just AB, the trade involving AB would need to bring back similar salary to what AB has. So, again, based purely on the salary cap perspective, there isn’t a huge difference between the two paths in front of us. In terms of your new argument about flexibility and depth, it really hinges on your valuation of AW and AB as players. I am much less sanguine than most,… Read more »
Agreed, most of the arguments have hinged on how the individual values Wiggins vs. Love, now and in the long term. My other main point is moreso that having the same amount of $$ tied up in one player vs. multiple players is that the multiple pieces can be shuffled to meet circumstances that we can’t predict as of right now. The salaries remain the same, but AB and those picks can be traded for, say, a backup C if one of the guys gets hurt or doesn’t pan out. We couldn’t (wouldn’t) trade Love to gain depth; we could… Read more »
“What did we learn from the Spurs over the last two years? That a team with nine good players can beat a team with three great players”
Probably the key point in all of this, besides that pesky fact that Love can leave after one season.
Good article, Nate. Glad to see there are Cavs fans who can think past next season.
This is not what we learned. We learned that having 3 Hall of Famers is incredibly important. Having a Big 3 seems to be the key to winning these days.
Do players win because they are Hall of Fame talents? Or are they Hall of Fame talents because they won? If Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli had never won those championships in San Antonio, they probably wouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame discussion. The same goes for Scottie Pippen if he had never played with MJ’s Bulls. That is a chicken or egg argument. If the Cavs happened to rake in a few titles as currently constructed, suddenly Kyrie, Wiggins, and maybe others are sure-er locks for the Hall than Love is. Every situation is unique; the Cavs are… Read more »
Look what the Bulls did without Jordan for those two years. They were still a top tier team. Yes, Pippen is easily a HoFer. I would say Parker and Ginobili are too. They were big reasons why San Antonio is so good.
If the Cavs rake in a few titles with Irving and Wiggins, it will be because those two were really damn good, a lot better than what we’ve seen from them so far.
My point is you don’t truly know how good a player is until he wins. Like I said, chicken or egg. Is Phil Jackson the best coach ever because he had the luxury of coaching Jordan, Kobe, and Shaq? Or are those players some of the best ever because they played for Phil Jackson? Or both? Winning is what defines greatness, and if any of the individuals mentioned had not been fortunate enough to be in a winning position we wouldn’t still be talking about them. That’s all I’m saying.
You certainly can gain an idea of how good a player is outside of team achievements. Titles and being in the HoF come from being really damn good. If you really need to see rings on fingers before you can admit someone is a top class talent, I feel bad for you. But hey, you probably root for the Lakers anyway.
Considering basketball is a team game and the purpose of playing the game is to win, then yes I would say that winning is the ultimate measurement of greatness. Not the only one, just the best one. The greatest people are ones who lift those around them. Being able to score, rebound, and pass well are just individual brushstrokes on a bigger picture.
STAAAAAAHHHHHPPPPPP!!!!
They don’t have a big 3 anymore. Just because they have had hall of fame careers doesn’t make them top 10 or 15 in the league currently. They had absolutely no one that I would put as a top 10 player right now. Come on, man.
Then you are lacking in basketball knowledge. Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili are all really great players,
Really great =/= top 10. Parker and Duncan are probably in the 15-25 range, Manu is in the 25-50 range.
Let’s put it this way: if it was just those guys with a pile of veteran minimum players, would they be even close to a championship team? That’s completely laughable.
Just to put it in perspective, here are guys that are definitively better than anyone on the Spurs right now, in roughly the order I’d rank them:
LBJ
KD
CP3
Howard
Griffin
Carmelo
A Davis
Westbrook
Noah
(healthy) Rose
Love
Curry
(healthy) George
At that point, you can start talking about Parker and Duncan, but they’re in the mix with a bunch of other guys, like Dirk, Aldridge, Lillard, Harden, and Bosh. So again, somewhere 13-20 for those guys.
The Cavs as currently constructed are probably the favorites in the East. The Cavs with Love win the East in a cakewalk. No one worries about centers when you have LeBron James. The Heat went to 4 straight Finals without a center. The Cavs with Love can do the same thing.
Stop worrying and love the Big 3 they are putting together to rival the Spurs Big 3.
“The Cavs as currently constructed are probably the favorites in the East”
I agree. So why decimate your depth and youth to add an injury-prone guy who could leave after one season? At the very least, see if the young guys show some development before flipping them.
What depth? your trading a fringe NBA player and a probable 25 minute a night guy for a top 5 player? You dont want to lose Bennett off the bench? Thats whats going to doom us?
It’s not simply losing Bennett and Wiggins. It’s also losing the flexibility and picks needed to add young talent to this core in the future. Moves like the Zeller trade and letting Hawes/Miles go are the types of space-creating moves that ended Miami’s title window prematurely. Yes, Wade’s knees were a major reason as well.
Also, I disagree with your statement that Bennett is a “fringe NBA player”. It’s ridiculously early in his career to make that assessment.
Vesus, in order to sign Lebron James, the best basketball player in the world, the Cavs had to make cap space. This required trading Jarrett Jack, which required additional assets to make any trade of his contract palatable. It also included not taking on added salary in the interim. Are you saying the Cavs should have re-signed Hawes and Miles instead? We saw how that played out last year; a 30+ win team and no playoffs.
There is nothing to lose and everything to gain by waiting to get Love at the midseason trade deadline. If LeBron is really as good as we all think, and if the young players on the Cavs improve by playing with him and growing a year older/wiser/refined, then why sell the farm right NOW? The trade value of those guys can ONLY go up; it’s not like Bennett is going to have a worse season than he did last year. No team is going to swoop Love at this point. If they do, then hey, we can still offer Wiggins… Read more »
Agree with Swagger and others. No need to rush into this. Who knows, if Bennett plays well enough, and Minnesota starts to sweat about him leaving and stating he won’t sign with anyone but Cleveland – the trade may end up being Bennett & a #1 for Love.
There’s half a season to lose. Integrating high usage players is not a turn-key process. Especially with a new coach. All sides want this deal done now for those reasons. Minny wants to move on, Cleveland wants to start preparing.
I don’t think they are the favorites if Rose is actually as healthy as he’s looked early on.
I disagree. he Bulls (Rose, Noah & Gasol) are the clear cut favorite right now. If the Cavs land Love, then we will have the slight edge over them, but it won’t be easy.
It will be easy. LeBron is miles better than those guys. Love is better than those guys, and Irving is just as good as those guys. You can Sharpie them into the Finals right now.
You can sharpie them into the Finals without Love. Which is why I feel he is a luxury we simply don’t need.
ok Hope you’re right. But Chicago plays D. Noah was the Defensive player of the year and 1st team all NBA. Butler was 2nd team all NBA def. Pau G will only improve their D. Add Rose – an MVP – and is reportedly back in rare form. All I am sayin is we NEED KLove.
Stop it with the “Spurs Big 3” bull. They have nobody who is a top 10 player currently, though Kawhi could get there. What they have is a (relatively) huge number of top 50 players. I would say last year they had probably five guys in the top 50, and maybe one that broke the top 15 last year. That’s not a big three. That’s a team.
(Top 50 players on the Spurs I would say are Tim, Kawhi, Parker, Manu, and maybe Green)
Nate is completely wrong here. And citing Scott Raab about anything Cleveland sports is citing a guy who has been wrong as well (and a hack who made money off of Cleveland’s pain when LeBron left).
I think Nate needs to be given a time out from writing about the Cavs.
Denigrate me all you want, but Raab’s appearance on Dan’s show was note perfect, and he’s a friend of the site. I doubt you watched. Heck, i doubt you read the book. The book was as much about Scott Raab and his failings as it was about LeBron. It takes an unbelievable amount of guts to expose himself the way that Scott did in that book, and anyone who takes those kind of authorial risks has my respect. And by the way, he probably captures the feeling of “the fan of the street” better than anyone about LeBron’s return and… Read more »
OK. But you are wrong on this. Raab was wrong about LeBron before and he’s wrong now. By the time he’s through, he will deserve a statue. If you don’t want to enjoy this season because LeBron hurt your feelings, be my guest.
The rest of us are going to enjoy the heck out of the next 4-5 years watching the Cavs compete and win a title. It’s going to be awesome. We will have no bittersweet feelings we will just be happy. You and Raab can drown your sorrows while we celebrate.
Stop commenting when you have no idea what you’re talking about. Raab is ecstatic LeBron is back and said “I love the guy.”
Yeah, LeBron might leave. He also might not care about legacy as much as he says and he might just want to screw Cleveland again. Come on everyone. LeBron isn’t leaving unless he retires or at least wins a title in Cleveland. Wiggins might be the next Kobe. But that’s the only way Love doesn’t make sense. He fits the roster better than Wiggins (who can’t shoot yet), and he’s already one of the top 5 most talented players in the league. That’s likely Wiggins’ ceiling. We could waste 3-4 years of LeBron’s fading prime waiting for it to develop,… Read more »
Someone said that Wiggin’s Cleveland memorabilia was discontinued on the NBA store. Well it’s back now. I hope all of these reports are rumors. I think I could fall in with any trade for Love now (begrudgingly) if he was under contract. The opt-out is a real concern. Sure history shows you pay up 3-4 #1s for that caliber of player but not for a rental. And this real fact is what it means to be a fan in Cleveland. Something could go wrong? the Drive, the Fumble, the Shot, the Decision, Jose Mesa in 1997, 2007 Indians up 3-1… Read more »
Commentarial P.S.: It’s still not too late to change your mind, LeBron… About Wiggins, I mean.
I have always preferred FTS or WFNY, but you Nate Smith are my new favorite writer. The Blog gained an active reader and poster today. I am a Cavs Fan for Life not a Cavs fan for Lebrons prime.
Thanks a lot! Happy to have you aboard.
I will admit that I’m not sure if you guys drew straws and you ended having to be the token trade Love trade hater. If that’s not how you guys chose who gets to have what perceptive so that all bases are covered (for diversity sake) then The Blog should consider it.
I think most of us are more or less against the trade as it has been discussed. I’m firmly with Nate here unless we get Dieng in the deal. It would then become more acceptable. This trade is less about established all-star vs potential as it is about offense vs defense. I am a defense first guy, so I prefer Wiggins. That being said, the 2008 Celtics were predicted to have an awful defense and we saw how that turned out. Sure, that team featured an all time defensive great in KG, but much of their success was predicated on… Read more »
Great article and my sentiments exactly.
We are giving up too much for a “superstar” unwilling to commit to this great team next year.
It’s not worth the risk. Let Wiggins prove himself and stay loyal to our youthful core.
There is a reason we were forced to rebuild four years ago and it is a shame we have not learnt from past mistakes.
The problem with your argument is so much of your evidence hinges on Windy’s reporting — the same guy who reported LeBron was staying in Cleveland days before the decision, and who would be staying in Miami before the essay. Also the same guy who reported LeBron would never play with Kyrie. Someone out there is spoonfeeding him misinformation, and none of his editors have the decency to call him out on it.
Totally agree that Windy might be on the outs with the Cleveland Cartel. He’s had mediocre info months and was shut out if The Return. If he’s lost the connection to Lebron his role at ESPN could change drastically.
The more I watch LeBron, the more I suspect he’s just legendarily fickle. Windy is in the business of reporting about what’s going on in the moment, and the thought processes of people in that moment. As he has said, things can change unbelievably quickly in the NBA. If Wade’s knee holds out in the finals, we’re probably talking about a Wiggins and Bennett future. From a distance, it’s only natural that players whose lives depend on whether a round ball falls inside a cylinder when launched from 25 feet away, have a binary and capricious attitude about how they… Read more »
Fickle? This dude just walked away from two established players in Miami to come home to CLEVELAND to a team whose best players have never played on a winning team. If you follow him on FB or Twitter, you will see that since making the decision he is amping up his amazing efforts to help kids in Akron and be a leader in the community. From the moment he left Cleveland in 2010, there have been reports that he missed home and wanted to come back (the national media decided to ignore them because they didn’t want to believe them).… Read more »
I am with you on LeBron being basically an excellent person. I also think it is about 99% certain that he stays with the Cavs.
On the other hand, I agree with all Nate’s comments.
Another aspect is that in many decades of being a BB+FB+BB fan, I have seen many huge trades of young talent for an established or aging star. I don’t have any numbers, but my perception is that it is usually a big mistake.
Re: trades, I think Basketball is unique because the value of one elite player is more than multiple average players. I am trying to think of a trade in recent basketball history involving a star entering their prime in which the tam aquiring the star got the worse end. Its hard. The Lakers trading for Horward is the big one, but that was more about their inability to keep him then about the value of the the pieces in the trade. And then the Harden trade, the Garnett trade, the Gasol trade, the Shaq trade to Miami all were wins… Read more »
Hot Sauce, how about this one from Cavs history: We dealt rookie Kevin Johnson and a draft pick (that became Dan Majerle) for Larry Nance, who was one of the best PF in the game at the time. Yeah, our team was decent, great even, but long term we would have been much better with KJ and DM. We didn’t win a championship, but our run of contention could have been significantly longer with those two. Or how about the Knicks trading for Steve Francis, who was an all-star until he got to New York, and was on a terrible… Read more »
“I don’t have any numbers, but my perception is that it is usually a big mistake.”
You mean like the Lakers trading for Gasol? The Celtics trading for Garnett? Miami trading for Shaq? (There’s four titles right there.) Houston trading for Harden?
Sure, there have been many failures as well (Carmelo, Deron Williams, Howard to the Lakers). But the failures will always outnumber the succeses because- well- every year there is only one champion and 29 losers.
It can succeed or fail. Its a caluclated risk. I think it’s a risk worth taking.
I don’t deny that he clearly has some love for NE Ohio, and that that essay was moving. But like Nate, I’m still not ready to forgive him entirely and let him back in my heart. What’s stopping me from doing that, you ask? I want him to admit that he made a mistake, and more importantly I want him to say sorry. He says “mistakes were made” and “I probably would have done things differently”, but there is a difference between saying “mistakes were made” and saying “I made mistakes”. More to the point, there’s even a difference between… Read more »
Wow. You set high standards for judging the character of men you have never met – your judgment is so precise that it hinges on semantic interpretations of phrases. Again, if the act of coming home to Cleveland, and taking on major professional risk in doing so, does not convey an appropriate amount of remorse and love for NE Ohio, its culture, its people, etc., then I don’t know what to say. Those of us from NE Ohio love the sports teams because we love where we are from. LeBron’s letter was as direct a statement as you will ever… Read more »
Wanting anyone to say “I am sorry” is for losers. That is like being a brokenhearted teenager listening to sappy songs about someone who “done you wrong”.
In about 50% of all pickup basketball games, two people (sometimes on the same team) get shouting at each other and making threats. You don’t apologize after the game, you laugh about it when you are at the drinking fountain together.
The right thing to do is to acknowledge a mistake, go on from here, and try to do better.
He can’t be all those things and fickle too? Ask Mo Williams how fickle LeBron is. Ask Dwyane Wade. LeBron has a lot of great qualities, but he doesn’t walk on water. He’s human. Let’s treat him as such.
Absolutely crushed it. Amazing article. I share a lot of these same insecurities with the move but I’m not as pessimistic. Totally dig the point that we’ve become accustomed to having hope in the future of our young players that we don’t want to give up on Wiggins. We see a wink of potential and see the spectrum of possibilities. We’re conditioned for tomorrow. We don’t know another way anymore. I never read CtB until the lost season of 2011 when I took my I unmarketable set of talents elsewhere. You summed up how I’ve felt in LA for the… Read more »
Well said..we’ve been starving for star power here in NE Ohio..get it while it’s hot
If there’s room on this bandwagon, I’m joining in. Nice job writing down the reasons this Love deal just isn’t appealing to me as a Cavs fan. And I really hope I’m wrong about that.
Biggest problem: Always worst case scenario argument from the keep Wiggins side. “Kevin Love could leave after 1 season!!” What about the worst case scenario from the other side? You know, Andrew Wiggins can’t dribble a basketball and we’ll miss our ONE chance to add another superstar to the team? Or, worse yet, Wiggins gets hurt, our best trade asset loses all of its value and that’s that. Just want to see some consistency. Don’t give me the “Love and LeBron might leave” and then never pretend that there are no major risks the other way. First and foremost being… Read more »
In 2009, 82games calculated that a No. 1 overall pick has a 70% chance of being a star, and a 95% chance of being a solid starter or better. http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
The odds that Wiggins ends up a star are higher than that, I’d wager. You see a guy who can’t really shoot, or dribble in traffic. I see a guy who in summer league reshaped his game inside of four games and will have no problem in the NBA, and can add facets to his game at his pace. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
This article does not address HOW LONG it takes for a player to become “solid or better.” LeBron has 4-5 years of awesomeness left. Watching Wiggins holistically across all of his games at Kansas (rather than just staring at one dunk he made in Summer League), I view Wiggins as a guy who will certainly be solid in 2-3 years, and COULD be a star in 5. For me, that makes him not super valuable to the Cavs situation right now. Also, a “star” in this article is a PER of 20. Love blows that out of the water, even… Read more »
Hot Sauce its really funny. Everyone who watched more a few games of college basketball this year has been really cool on Wiggins. I thought that Parker was the better player and was devastated when Embiid broke his foot. In college Wiggins wasn’t that great. He couldn’t dribble, had very inconsistent shot and disappeared in games. Nate when we won the Lottery I tweetd “Welcome to Cleveland Kevin Love” so this is what I knew and wanted to happen since then. Nate if Lebron and Kevin love leave next year Lebron will face a backlash never before seen. It will… Read more »
One Love, Rodney Mac. One Love.
That’s exactly it Rodney. Wiggins went from #3 to #1 because of Embiid. If Embiid stayed healthy and the Cavs and Sixers swapped spots and we got Wiggins at #3, is everyone clamoring to keep him so much? We need to see past the shine of being the #1 overall.
Is summer league performance predictive of future success in the NBA? Hardly. The idea that glimpses Andrew Wiggins showed in summer league portends superstardom is absurd. He was playing against other rookies and second rounders, journeymen, or foreign players looking to get a spot at the end of an NBA bench. I also disagree that keeping Wiggins over Kevin Love will somehow give the Cavs more financial flexibilty. With Lebron and Kyrie making max money for the forseeable future, the team will be at or near the cap regardless of any Kevin Love trade. Either way, future transactions will be… Read more »
One other comment on the 82games article. Accoring to the “rating” metric used in the article (ppg+apg+rpg), both Dion and Tristan were “stars” last year. So the fact that 75 percent of #1’s turn into “stars” doesn’t really mean much.
Andrew Wiggins only needs to be able to dribble once and dunk. I’m pretty sure he will be able to handle that.
His won’t be able to guard elite wings right away, but he has the tools to do so, and that will extend Lebron’s career. Which is invaluable.
Oh, and Love leaving after one season isnt the worst case scenario because we would still be a Finals team in that season. Worst case is he gets HURT and then leaves. He hasn’t been an Iron Man.