All You Need is Love?
2014-07-17
Was John Lennon full of it? There’s been a lot of debate of late on whether the Cavs should parlay some of their good draft fortune over the last three years into an elite, “win now” NBA talent. The trade target most emblematic of that “win now” ethos: Kevin Love. The below look at the Cavs salary cap, as of Thursday morning, is courtesy of Basketball Insiders. To make this a complete roster, the Cavs have several players to add, and not a lot of cap room to do it. The cap is set to $63.065 million, which leaves the Cavs approximately $2.44 million under the cap. (As I understand it*, the “room exception” that the Cavs have offered to Mike Miller will only be in effect after the Cavs reach the salary cap. Miller — and now James Jones on a league minimum– won’t sign a contract till after that.) Given those constraints, let’s examine how Kevin Love would fit on the Cavs.
What do the stats say about Kevin Love?
Kevin Love provides four things at an elite level for his position: three point shooting, rebounding, passing, and finishing at the basket. He’s an elite offensive player, as is evidenced by 26 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 4.4 assists last year. Kevin Love also operates at an incredibly high usage rate of 28.8%., but is this going to work on a team where Kyrie Irving has traditionally had 28% usage rate, and LeBron has a 32% usage rate? Certainly, a lower usage rate can help Love. As good as he is from three and around the basket, Love tends to launch his share of mid-range jumpers at a low rate. According to basketball-reference, Kevin was 46-130 (35%) from 10-16 feet last year, and 76-190 (40%) from 16 feet to the three point line. Currently, he’s his team’s No. 1 option on offense, so he forces some shots.
KLove’s 2014 shot chart.
Playing with Kyrie and LeBron would alleviate the need to take so many mid-rangers. Putting Love in post-ups, pick-and-roll, and pick-and-pop is a very nice option for the Cavs. Love finishes at the basket at 67%, and is a good three point shooter in pick-and-pops. But when he shoots mid-rangers, he can tend to pass up better options. That being said, having more potent partners in pick-and roll situations is going to help him get space.
As for other advanced stats, Love put up a monstrous .245 WS/48 and a PER of 26.9 last year, but both are stats that greatly favor volume rebounders. For a non-rebounding influenced stat, RAPM Favors love as well. He posted a 2.9 combined RAPM, good for 25th in the NBA, and his 2.81 offensive RAPM was good for 19th. His team did play better when he was on the floor. But strangely, his effectiveness as a floor stretcher was overrated. For another Gotbuckets stat, lets look at Randall Cooper’s four factors APM, which can measure a players’ overall effect on his team’s shooting. Love’s impact on his team’s effective field goal percentage only ranked in the 41st percentile in 2014 and in the 39th percentile in 2013. Part of that is probably the quality of the shooters that the Wolves put with him, but some of it was Love’s penchant for long twos.
What Love does do for his team is increase their offensive rebounding rate and the number of free throws they shoot. He was in the 88th percentile for improving his team’s offensive rebound rate in 2014, and 99th in 2013, 2012, and 100th in 2011. Suffice it to say, that he’s one of the league’s best at this. As far as drawing fouls, Kevin attempts about eight free throws a game over the last three seasons. And he was in the 86th, 84th, and 89th percentile in 2014-2011 at increasing his teams’ overall free throw attempts.
Defensively, Love isn’t a bad player. He’s not a good one either, but he has certainly improved. He posted a -2.16 DRAPM in 2011, -1.41 in 2012, -.36 in 2013, and .09 in 2014. Similarly Going from a net loss player to a break-even player on defense is commendable. He’s become a not awful system defender, and, given his age, he probably has a few years of defensive uptick left in him. ( Kevin Hetrick’s research on big man aging curves provides a good discussion of this phenomenon). According to NBA.com’s player tracking data, Love allowed opponents to shoot 57.4% at the rim this past season, which is roughly in the 30th percentile in the league for all positions, and correspondingly, pretty low for a center/power forward. He only provides .8 steals and .5 blocks per game. In terms of his ability to effect opponent team field goal percentage, Love has improved has a system player going from 63rd to 75th to 85th to 86th percentile in the NBA for all positions, which is reflected in his RAPM numbers. As far as effecting his team defensive foul rate, Kevin was at just about the 70th percentile over the last three seasons, which is meh for a big man.
What Love does do better than almost anyone is defensive rebound. With an almost 30% defensive rebound rate for his career, Kevin helps eliminate second chance opportunities for the other team. He has ranked no worse than the 96th percentile in helping his team’s overall rebound rate on the d-boards over the last three seasons, according to FFAPM.
In summary, Love is a very good finisher, three point shooter, passer, and elite rebounder. He has developed himself into an adequate system defender. His lowered usage with the Cavs would probably pump up his offensive efficiency, but this is not guaranteed. However, Love’s biggest value is that he would relegate Tristan Thompsan to the bench. The 2014 version of Thompson was not a good player. He posted a RAPM of -2.04, and was responsible for only two wins according to SWAgR. Tristan’s FFAPM puts him in the 44th percentile for helping his team lower eFG, which is lousy for a big. Replacing Thompson with Love would theoretically increase the Cavs scoring differential by five points per 100 possessions. I love Tristan, and I think he’ll eventually develop into a solid player, but… yikes.
What would the Cavs have to give up to get Love?
Let’s examine the purported “initial offer” of Dion Waiters, Anthony Bennett, and a first rounder to get Love. As the link shows, the Cavs are about $1.2 million dollars short on incoming salaries to make trade legal. In this case, they’d have to either send along Brendan Haywood and his contract, or Carrick Felix and Matthew Dellavedova. I’d vastly prefer Haywood go over Delly. From a basketball standpoint, the trade is in the Cavs favor in the short term.
Dion Waiters would be the centerpiece. As good as Anthony Bennett looks in summer league, he was also the worst player in the NBA last year of players who played significant minutes. So Dion… Dion posted a PER of 14 last year, and a WS/48 of .037. He averaged 15.9 points and three assists over 29.6 minutes, with a solid TS% of .508, that was mostly pulled down by his bad free throw shooting. RAPM was similar for Dion. He posted a -.09 RAPM, with a .92 ORAPM. Dion improved as the season went on and finished with a .530 TS% on a 28.6 usage. What is interesting about Dion is that he is a pretty effective floor stretcher. Dion shot 44-98 (45%) from 10-16 feet, and 125-290 (43%) from 16 feet to inside the three line. Then 37% from three. Dion’s finishing game is still a work in progress, but we all saw improvement as the year went on and Dion was able to get to the line, and pass out of drives instead of forcing shots. For a second year player, his outside shooting numbers are really good. No, they’re not Kyrie good, but we’ve been spoiled by him.
Dion was a solid catch-and-shoot player last year, dropping in 41.6% of his three point attempts and 41.9% overall. He shot 38.9% on pull-ups, including a bad 26% from three. But Dion’s ability to hit from 16 feet on did provide floor balance. His FFAPM ranks his ability to improve his team’s effective field goal percentage in the 82nd percentile. He also gets to the line at about 4.1 times a game, but his ability to help his team get to the line is also in the 82nd percentile
Dion is a nice player and he projects to keep improving for a couple years, and he’s already ahead of the curve, especially on his jump shot. If his defense improves with his offense, the Cavs or the Wolves will have a nice player on their hands. But for Minnesota, a Dion Waiters centerpiece trade seems a little short of the value they’d want to receive in return for Love. To get a better idea of what would be a “fair” trade, lets look at a couple blockbuster trades for comparison.
In 2011, Utah traded Deron Williams to the Nets for Derrick Favors (third pick, 2010), Devin Harris, and two first round draft picks. Harris was a very solid point guard in 2011, who scored 15 points and dished out 7.5 assists for New Jersey. This was the equivalent of four first round picks. The Cavs would have to add another first rounder to match this deal.
Also in 2011, Denver traded Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks for Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, the Knicks 2014 first-round draft pick, the Warriors’ 2012 second-round pick, the Warriors’ 2013 second-round pick and $3 million in cash. This was because Straight Shot frontman, James Dolan, couldn’t wait for ‘Melo to be a free agent the following summer. If you consider Chandler, Gallinari, and Mozgov as first round pick quality, you can consider this a trade for four first rounders, three second rounders, and $3 million. Suffice to say, New York destroyed their team to get Melo and have been paying for it ever since.
In 2012, Oklahoma City moved James Harden to the Rockets for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, two first rounders, and a second rounder. These are four equivalent first rounders and one second. It’s becoming clear: the going rate for a star in his prime is four first round quality players and a little bit more. The current Waiters, Brennett, and a first offer falls short.
The Cavs have the ability to add two more draft picks (they have future firsts from Miami and Memphis), and another first in 2017. Cavs should add another first and a second to their initial offer. Anything more than that is overpaying. There’s also another problem: this trade would leave the Cavs woefully thin at guard. Instead of being deep at guard, suddenly, the Cavs would have to add a third ball-handler. Harris and Wiggins aren’t ready to assume that role yet.
Should the Cavs trade Wiggins?
How many roads must a man walk down before they call him a man? Why is Mona Lisa smiling? Who shot JFK? What the hell was the end of Lost about?… The Wiggins question is more polarizing than any of those dilemmas. If you’ve listened to Cleveland sports radio in the last week, it may have caused you to pull your hair out. To answer the question, one needs to project the player Andrew Wiggins will be this year, and the player he’ll be in three, five, and seven years. One way to do this is to take our opinions of Wiggins out of the equation and just look at No. 1 NBA draft picks overall. In 2009, 82games calculated that a No. 1 pick traditionally has a 70% chance of being a star and a 95% chance of being solid or better. More recently Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com calculated the average value of a No. 1 pick using wins shares. He calculated that an average NBA top pick is worth 33.9 wins over the first five seasons of his career, an average of 6.83 wins per year. By comparison, Kevin Love contributed 47 wins over the course his first six years: an average of 7.83 wins per year. However, in three of the last four years, Love contributed over 10 Wins Shares, including 14.3, last year.
Silver noted that the market for wins is about $1.75 million per win. At Gotbuckets, we’ve noted that $1.6 million per win is solid value, and $2 million per win is overpaying (we calculate wins differently, but the price per wins theory is the same). A No. 1 overall pick generates 33.9 wins and costs $35 million over those first five years. That computes to a jaw-dropping value of $1.03 million per win.
Of course, Anthony Bennett blows this theory out of the water, as he produced -.04 wins total last year. He might have to pick up the pace to live up to this trend… Bennett aside, a number one pick produces such a high value that he is definitely worth much more than an “average” first rounder. If NBA team salaries were unlimited, this wouldn’t matter. But the cap system forces teams to be frugal. It can be argued that a big reason the “Big Three” era fell apart in Miami was because the team couldn’t add enough quality players around three $20 million dollar contracts, and remain competitive. They added veterans on low money contracts, and when those players “aged out,” fielding a championship team became difficult.
The question is, how close is Wiggins to an “average ” No. 1 pick. My bet: average or better in terms of wins (though I’m betting his wins will grade out better via RAPM than wins shares, given my hunch that ‘Drew will be defensive savant). Hence, Wiggins plus a first or two is more than “fair” value for Love.
How many wins is Kevin Love worth? Let us assume that using Wins Shares he will be worth 9.4 wins: the average of his last four seasons. Let us also assume that he’ll sign four year, $80 million dollar contract after he opts out of his current one, for a total of $96.74 million. That makes, with his current deal, an average of $2.06 million per win: a high number. But if Love averages closer to his peak of 14 wins, he’s a steal. Averaging 11 wins per season (a realistic number), Love provides average value. But that’s using wins shares, and as I’ve noted, Wins Shares tends to favor high volume rebounders. Love is not going to get as many rebounds with the Cavs as he did with the T-Wolves. Using RAPM and SWAgR, Love’s numbers are much more pedestrian. By this metric, Love produced 4.63, 7.41, 2.3, and 11.9 wins in each of the last for seasons for a total of 19.57 wins, and an average of 4.89 wins per season. Using that average, he’s costing a whopping $3.96 million per win on his new contract. Even his peak of 11.9 provides only a slightly better than average value of $1.74 million per win. That means Kevin Love, given his defense and injury history is a huge risk to give that kind of money to. But, he is the only player in the top 20 in wins from 2014 available.
Conclusions
Most of this debate comes down to our biases and how we project them on to players. If we believe Dion, Wiggins, and Bennett will all develop into good to great NBA players, and sooner rather than later, then it’s a dumb trade. If we believe Kevin Love is a player who averaged a .245 wins per 48 minutes (which puts him No. 4 in the NBA in WS/48), and he can stay healthy, and he can maintain his usage rate, then he can be considered a very elite player, then he is a “must get.” By that logic, a trade would put two of the top four players in the NBA on the same team.
The other factor is the “win now” versus “win later” mentality. Love, the argument goes, gives the Cavs the opportunity to compete for an NBA championship now. If the Cavs don’t “go for it” now, they may never have the opportunity again. LeBron could be fickle and leave again. The Cavs might not solve their defensive woes, and Dion, TT, Tristan, and ‘Tony might not develop into anything great… There are just so many variables that are simply unknown when it comes to Kevin Love and these young players we’re talking about. We all hold strong opinions, but if any of us could predict the future accurately, we wouldn’t be wasting our time reading or writing this blog.
I’m against trading for Love for a few reasons.
- Most importantly, There’s absolutely no guarantee that he re-signs with the Cavs if/when he enters free agency next summer, and he’s not going to sign an extension, nor would it be in his interest to. Conversely, the Cavs have Waiters rights for at least three more seasons; Bennett’s for four; and Wiggins’ for five. That level of risk would be unacceptable for any billion dollar company, and it should be unacceptable for the Cavs.
- Love’s injury history is not insignificant. It’s just as checkered as Andy’s, and Love is younger…
- Love’s numbers are inflated. Kevin’s not going to have as high of usage with the Cavs, and he’s not going to duplicate his rebound rate. His shot efficiency may improve, but there are no guarantees.
- Kevin’s biggest strength is rebounding, which is not an area of weakness for the currently constructed roster. Kevin doesn’t solve the Cavs biggest need: interior defense, at which Love is adequate, not great.
- “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket,” the old cliché goes… The Cavs just don’t have enough quality NBA players to give up two or three for Love. Keeping Wiggins, Bennett, and Waiters provides three bodies that can all play two positions. The odds are that at least one of those players develops into someone who can come close to matching Love’s peak wins contributions. Keeping the youngins and coaching them up follows the WWPD (what would Popovich do?) credo.
From a roster construction standpoint, If the Cavs give up Dion, they’re down a starting two guard. Yes, they could start Delly and Kyrie, but that leaves Joe Harris as the top backup guard. If the Cavs give up Wiggins, they’re down their top reserve wing. Meanwhile, the Cavs have LeBron, Tristan, and Andy who can all play the power forward position (assuming Bennet leaves, cause Tristan isn’t going anywhere. With Rich Paul as his agent, Tristan is protected like Kaiser Söze). If the Cavs do end up with Love, he’ll have to spend at least half his time at center. But without him, they remain woefully thin at the spot, with only below average options for augmentation. It’s not a pleasant dilemma, but at least we no longer have to watch Alonzo Gee play 36 minutes a night.
Alternatives
Trading for Love will be much easier next summer, when the Cavs have Brendan Haywood’s non-guaranteed $10 million dollar contract to dangle. The Cavs will also have fear on their side. Whatever team hold’s Kevin’s contract risks Love’s loss without compensation. The Cavs should not duplicate James Dolan’s mistake of giving up a third of their roster for a guy who could join next off-season anyway.
Ekpe Udoh, Cover Boy
Another alternative would involve the Cavs turning their attention to an interior defender with adequate offense instead of towards Love. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of those guys available, and almost no palatable options in free agency. Omeka Okafor, Jermaine O’Neal, Greg Oden, Ryan Hollins, Nazr Muhommed, Elton Brand, Tree Rollins, Patrick Ewing comes out of retirement, Block-bot 2000… Despite my distaste, the Cavs are going to end up with one or two of those guys on vet minimums. There are younger options who are not good at offense, like Greg Stiemsma. IMO, Ekpe Udoh remains the best current option on free agency market, at least as a player who can continue to grow. But he’s also thin, has an injury history, and is Hollinsian at times on offense.
Another option would be to trade for the shot-blocker the Cavs need. The only player I’ve identified that might be gettable is Charlotte’s Bismack Biyombo. He has steadily improved over the last three seasons, is only 21, and was one of the league leaders in blocking shots without fouling. However, he’s still raw after three years, and given the departures of Josh McRoberts and Anthony Tolliver, Charlotte is now thin up-front. Al Jefferson doesn’t exactly have the most reliable body, either. But do Zeller and Vonleh make Bismack expendable now? Would they trade? What about this swap? Speaking of Zellers, this is making me miss Tyler.
It would take a first+ to get Biyambo. Maybe the Cavs should look at Kyle O’Quinn? Jeff Whithey? Ugh. We’re scraping the barrel’s bottom. The discussion of a defensive presence is probably a side note to the Love debate, not a replacement. (And no, I’m not going to pitch a Larry Sanders trade. Let’s move on).
Getting back to Love, a reader, Matthew, gave me an idea: instead of looking to trade for Love, the Cavs should be looking at fellow 2015 free agent, Marc Gasol, either at the trade deadline if Memphis is floundering, or through a sign-and-trade next summer. He fills some of the Cavs defensive needs much better than Love. Sadly, Marc doesn’t have nearly as fun of a name. There are so many fun article titles that could be punned with the name “Kevin Love.” “Gasol,” just doesn’t have the same ring. But, you know, that probably won’t stop us from debating Marc’s merits every waking minute next week or next summer…
Don’t do this, Cavs. Even with Love or another star player, it will take time to gel. Better to work with the young guys and build a team that could compete for a few years, even if that take a year or two to get rolling. Love will take up all your cap room, so you will not be able to bring in any more top players for years to come. DON’T DO THIS TRADE.
Dont include wiggins whatever you do not him he has too much potential I would rather wait a year and sign him next season prob a sign and trade he probably won’t sign long term anywhere but here so the cavs and love can force the wolves hand and get him for less than wiggins he should not be touched we need defense and love isn’t it kyrie isn’t it we can’t get rid of wiggins he’ll I think this team as of now can win it all
I haven’t been a Cleveland sports fan for long as I’m a transplant from Charlotte but I always hated lebrons move to Miami so I feel I shared some Cleveland love even before I got here. It just feels to me that a trade for Love would be against everything I’ve come to love about the Cleveland sports scene. Cleveland doesn’t take shortcuts by attracting players with beautiful weather and even more beautiful women like Miami, or shortcuts by overpaying players that have already established themselves and buy rings like the Yankees. In my opinion Cleveland is the exact opposite… Read more »
Nate, this is absolutely fantastic. I especially enjoyed (almost said Loved but then thought better of it) the bit about expected value and $/win projections. I hope Dan Gilbert comes and reads that part. And I hope Lebron isn’t going to be whiny if he doesn’t get his way on this one.
Great article.
I’ll fully support the Love trade if it goes through. But I prefer we hang onto Wiggins.
Defense wins in this league. I can’t remember how many times I would get frustrated watching the Heat’s opponents in the ECF and Finals the past 4 years turn the ball over left and right in crunch time. It was because of LeBron and Wade. Wiggins could provide something similar there.
For (probably not) the last time. The Heat weren’t hamstrung by the Big 3 as much as the Big 3 was really the Big 1.5. If Wade didn’t get injured and was still a superstar and if Bosh was playing at a high level we wouldn’t be even having this discussion because LeBron would not be here. He’d still be in Miami.
That being said, I don’t want to trade Wiggins for Love because I think Wiggins will be a superstar. But if we can get Love without including Wiggins we should do it in a heartbeat.
If the Heat were a big 1.5, what will the Cavs be with KL and KI? If KI decides to try to play D, he might get up to average. There is no hope of KL ever being average on D, but maybe his rebounding makes up for it. But under the best outcome, you have one great 2 way player, but getting into his 30’s, and two really good 1 way players. Maybe Wiggins will be better than Love, maybe not. But you cannot ignore that salary considerations will force the Cavs to give up several other players. That… Read more »
In 2010, the Heat couldn’t have predicted Wade would suffer such a sharp decline in play but they still signed the Big Three to expensive contracts. The franchise was unable to adapt to the Big Three’s decline, in part due to a lack of $ flexibility. Therefore, the Heat were financially hamstrung.
Man’s greatness is how mighty his task is, I don’t see a very big task for LBJ with the current roster, frankly it’s much better than Cheats roster and no pressure what so . LeBron can win with the current roster, it took Cavs four years to assemble this talented group of first rounders, you ask any GM would love to put their hand on any of them and if you can find one say no to them ,then I show you an idiot. I love LBJ, don’t get me wrong, when he committed to Cavs a couple weeks ago… Read more »
“any GM would love to PUT their hand on any of them” — sounds like the GMs trying to molest the players! I’m sure you meant “get”. Made me LOL.
:)
I meant the Plain not the girl !!!!!!!!
Our front office have done everything right these past few months. Surely they can see that there is virtually no benefit to pulling this trade now. If Minny gets an acceptable offer they will clearly call and give us as opportunity to trump it.
As I’ve said above I don’t believe LeBron is making demands. There’s always a source reporting something.
Of course, there hasn’t been much to do the past few months other than have Wiggins and Lebron fall into their laps. Their previous decisions though have left some heads being scratched.
Haha that’s true I guess.
No no to Wiggins for love, it reminds me of Danny Ferry’s trade and giving up a lot for nothing. Love is a great player, Bosh was a great player when he was with Raptors but in Heat’s uni he was average. I don’t think LBJ wants Wiggins because he may turn out to be as good or close to himself . Giving up so much for Love sounds like panicking , you can’t win with a depleted roster. If I was LBJ, I would take the current roster and direct them to the promise land. It will be a… Read more »
Lebron James wanted to ship Wiggins out because he is afraid Wiggins’ talent will surpass his own is ludicrous
It’s human nature !
Great read. Another reason to keep wiggins is his defense on the perimeter (and hopefully ability to be a quasi rim protector as a help defender) will help make up for the lack of a traditional shot blocker. The main argument for love is his ability as a floor spacer (fair) but it ignores 50% of the game. When the heat went on their 27 – 0 run I remember during crunch time (if the game was close) LBJ, wade etc would ratchet up the defense, force gobs of turnovers and rip off 8 – 0 runs like it was… Read more »
Nate – really great work here.
1. It is possible for a team to have 0, 1, 2, or 3 max players. Having 3 totally hamstrings a team. It is true the Heat had a nice run when LeBron, in his 20’s far better than any other player, Wade was a top 5 player, and Bosh a top 20 or so player, but that combination might never happen again. On the other hand, without any, you are either way young, or just pretty weak. So probably having 1 or 2 works best. Anyone want to check how this matches reality? 2. Assuming you buy part 1,… Read more »
If the Cavs signed Kyrie to a huge extension then moved him to NBA Sibera, no agent would ever trust them again. The Cavs aren’t trading Kyrie for Love.
Even if they did matching salaries would require ths Cavs to add in more players!!! Everyone also needs to realize that if Kyrie gets voted in as a starter on this years all star team his contact goes up by 5% of the cap or over $3M/yr. That even makes the team more salary cap locked if they add Love.
“It is true the Heat had a nice run when LeBron,”
Nice undersells it a bit. Three teams have gone to four straight Finals since the Russell Celtics went to 10 straight. Magic’s Lakers and Bird’s Celtics both did it in the 80s. What Lebron’s Heat just did is quite impressive.
And I’m guessing that by this analysis, when Wiggins is up for a second contract, you’d suggest that the max should definitely be off the table.
People keep looking at the Miami “big three” as an isolated instance, and not a repeatable model….while forgetting that they weren’t even the first ones to do it that way. Boston was (KG, Allen, Pierce), and they won two titles in three years. Prior to that, you could throw the Lakers in there as well (Kobe, Gasol, Bynum). It looks like a pretty successful model to me. What it boils down to, I think, is this: do you take the surer bet for the short term (Love), who will be able to contribute most in the tail end of Lebron’s… Read more »
Boston won the title in 2008 (first year of the Big 3), made the finals again in 2010 but lost to the Lakers in 7.
You are also forgetting that was before the most recent CBA…. other than this year’s Spurs, all those teams were constructed under the premises of the old CBA. Having 3 max salary players leaves you with a crappy bench, see: 2014 Heat.
My problem with trading for Love is that it certainly makes us the East favorites THIS year, but beating the West team in the Finals? Where is the defense going to come from??
The Spurs also have a big 3. Every team needs 3 stars.
Yes, the Spurs do have a big three…but they evolved into that as lower draft picks. They were grown organically, and therefore more affordable. Neither Parker or Ginobli ever made max money their entire careers.
The Spurs didn’t just go out and buy stars on the open market for top dollar was my point.
Who cares how they got their players? Trades, drafts, free agents, it’s how teams get built. The Spurs got lucky that their stars didn’t want the money and chose to be paid less.
Cols, developing players in-house — as the Spurs did with Parker and Ginobli — gives the franchise a much better idea of how the player fits on the team because they’ve been playing on that team. There is no guarantee a trade or free agent signing works out. Similarly, the risk a team takes in drafting a player is significantly lower than whatever would have to be given up in a trade or in free agency. It is generally more expensive to bring in a player from outside as opposed to extending the contract of a guy you already have… Read more »
Like others here I’d just like to see how the team does with Wiggins and Waiters with LBJ and Kyrie. No need to trade away all the young assets we’ve gotten over the years for one superstar. LBJ came back knowing that we were young and a title was probably a couple years away. Lets grow and see what happens.
I know right? This is really beginning to piss me off again. I’m glad LBJ is back, but the whole euphoria behind it is fading away, especially if he is making demands behind the scenes. Kyrie is in Vegas and is bonding with the young guys and cheering them on. The coach is saying Wiggins won’t be traded and is already allegedly being told his words carry no weight with the team…what Lebron says and wants is what will happen. Why all the talk about patience and how hard it is to win in the return letter when that’s just… Read more »
I doubt LBJ is making demands. This is just NBA lull period where “sources” just pop up saying anything. LeBron is one of the smartest players out there – I doubt he is pressuring them into making a dumb decision (trading all our assets without seeing how well they play with him).
Where is KJ? I miss having somebody so certain that they know everything. Maybe he’s disappeared because Wiggins is playing well in summer league? Wiggins could still be bust. You can still call people delusional like you always do. Where are you? I miss you and the tension you create.
LIKE MAN ” SO CALLED ” EXPERTS ARE SAYING ( AND THIS TIME I AGREE WITH THEM ) —WHAT IS THE RUSH TO MAKE THE TRADE—-LET THESE GUYS PLAY TOGETHER 1ST—–LEBRON AND WIGGINS MIGHT BE A VERY DYNAMIC TANDEM BOTH OFF. AND DEF——CAN SEE MANY A LOB TO A HIGH FLYING WIIGINS ——EVERYONE IS SAYING CLEVELAND HAS TO WIN RIGHT NOW —-WHO SAYS WE CAN’T AND I THINK IF WE DON’T THIS COMING YEAR THE PIECES WILL BE THERE NEXT SUMMER TO PUT TOGETHR A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM
ESPN reports that the Cavs are willing to include Wiggins for Love…I hope my gut is wrong here, but adding Love doesn’t make the Cavs a more complete team than one with Wiggins… the thought of him, Dion, Andy and LeBron locking down four-fifths of the opposing team while convincing Kyrie to do the same is much more titillating than Love spotting up for threes and throwing an occasionally jaw-dropping outlet to LeBron. The offense under Blatt won’t require superstars, just willing passers and smart IQs–which Wiggins has. Do Dion and Bennett have that? I would like a year to… Read more »
The Cavs hold all the cards here. I don’t understand forcing this trade. The Cavs could play til Feb without Love and be in the playoffs. Minny would be sweating by then if no one else comes close to a deal they want. And it seems a bit uneven to be after GS for Klay but demanding Wiggins from Cle. Sure Klay is a pretty solid player but why are they balking at Dion AND Bennett(if these sources are correct). I really hate this Love talk. The Cavs better force a 4-yr deal before he comes over.
Why are they balking at two guys with a .037 and negative WS/48?
And the Cavs don’t hold any cards once Minnesota decides they’ll take one of the other offers out there.
Pero Antic, Paul Millsap, Brook Lopez, Al Jefferson, Tyson Chandler, Roy Hibbert, Deandre Jordan, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Omir Asik, Samual Dalembert, Lamarcus Alderidge, Tim Duncan. That is the list of free agent big men for next year that could be targets of the Cavs. Not all are an amazing choice but there are some great players and all but one of those guys is an unrestricted free agent and only a few are player options. It is almost completely screwed in half retarded to give up anyone for Love when there are actually better fits out there.
The difference with those guys and Love is that Cleveland will be absolutely capped out next summer, and they’d need a team to be willing to work with them on a sign-and trade using Haywood’s contract. Minnesota would (theoretically) be more likely to work with Cleveland because they’re losing Love by then anyway.
A lot of those guys will be available for cheap. Plus we have haywoods contract to use in a sign and trade.
As was mentioned above, you should really edit the article to note that the Cavaliers are not going to execute a trade for Love without a long-term extension already in the offing. And while it could be smoke, Love stated that he would sign long-term in Cleveland if traded there.
Oy. Just because you believe that Cleveland wouldn’t trade for him without an extension, doesn’t make it a reality. And just because it was “reported” Love would sign long term in Cleveland, doesn’t make that a reality either. The reality is Kevin Love would be stupid to limit his options by signing an extension for two extra years once traded to Cleveland. He’d be leaving an unbelievable amount of guaranteed money and freedom on the table by not exercising his free agency rights in 2015. There are a lot of Cleveland fans with illusions of knowledge who seem to know… Read more »
It intrigues me that the situation could end up with both LeBron and Love being FA’s after a year then both opting out to form a new super team elsewhere…e.g Lakers
Oy, indeed. Believing doesn’t make reality, you are correct. Which means you saying Love would be “stupid” to not sign an extension, by the same logic, doesn’t make that a reality. The Cavs would be stupid to trade for Love without an extension, and Love would be stupid to sign an extension since he can make much more money next summer. Both statements are true, but obviously both will not remain true if this trade goes through. So please don’t parade your idea around as the only logical on. It is debatable which one will happen (if Love is traded),… Read more »
Danny, I have to agree with your sentiments. We are not trading for Love without an extension.
You make a good point. Considering that both parties would be “stupid” to not best serve their own interests makes me believe that Love will not be coming to Cleveland. If Love wants money and Cleveland wants commitment, both can search elsewhere.
I wonder if thats going to be the major sticking point in this trade: we would basically want a sign-and-trade where love signs an extension with us right now and he will want to wait until next year making trading for him a lot riskier. If we can’t get that guarantee right now, I don’t think we pull the trigger on this trade. I still think it would be insanely stupid to up our offer (to wiggins) and get love now. Send both the miami and memphis picks +dion and Bennet, fine. But We can also make that offer in… Read more »
I don’t like including Wiggins for Love, but it’s a very debateable topic based on how we anticipate Wiggins to perform. We don’t need a PF and with Kyrie, Miller and possibly allen we aren’t hurting for shoothers. Interior D and Rebounding won’t greatly improve because of Love – So in general I’d rather take the chance that Wiggins lives up to or relatively resembles his potential. However, if we can get Pekovic included in the trade, then I’d be a lot more recetptive. Having a ‘legit’ C and Love with LeBron et. al., That would be a high quality… Read more »
Pekovic makes $12M a year (give or take). To get him we’d have to trade Wiggins, Waiters, Bennett, and others. I don’t think there’s any real possibility of Pekovic returning in a deal.
skip love, waiters for mozgov…
They just traded for affalo, drafted gary harris, and have randy foye, nate robinson, and wilson chandler who could all see time at SG.. They won’t miss mozgov too much either, but I don’t see why they’d trade.
Kosta Koufos? Could we pry him away from the grizzlies? As good oer minute numbers, better contract, and 3 years younger than mozgov… For what it’s worth..
I like Kosta Koufos, but he’s not going anywhere. He’s a bargain for a backup center. John Hollinger is no dummy.
So average Wiggins productions in 2 years equates to one ideal year of Love? And Wiggins will provide 4 years much cheaper? Why is debating this even a thing?
Agree with Nate. Thanks for doing the work to back up my intuition with data. I suspect the “Trade for Love” bots are actually Minnesota fans, hoping to fleece the Cavs.
Haha these boards have certainly gained a few new Cavs “fans” this past week…
I AM INTRIGUED WITH UDOH —–VERU ATHELETIC/ RUNS THE FLOOR WELL / RIM PROTECTOR —-NOT REALLY OFFENSIVE MINDED —–REALLY DON’T THINK YOU NEED A POST TO SCORE 20 PTS A GAME TO CONTIBUTE—-ATHELETIC / RIM PROTECTOR ARE THE MAJOR NEEDS FOR A POST ON THIS TEAM——QUESTION IS HIS HEALTH—– I PREFER CAVS GOING AFTER HIM AND KEEPING THIS LINEUP INTACT———SEE WHERE WE ARE AT TRADE DEADLINE AND POSSIBLY MAKE A MOVE THEN
Give up the CAPS, please. I appreciate what you have to say, but that’s just too obnoxious.
Very difficult to read and follow.
Although, I don’t feel as strongly about your ultimate conclusion as you do (I’m not completely opposed to it either), Nate, I am most appreciative that you have pushed the Kevin Love trade debate to a much more intelligent place. THANK YOU!!!
I do believe the 5 points in the conclusion above were presented by different commenters in the prior post – and you adamantly hated/laughed at all of them.
Love, Wiggins, whoever – let’s all just enjoy the fact that the Cavs are ’bout to be BADASS for years to come.
haha I doubt this was the case but when I read the 5 points I totally thought “was Nate reading my comments from the other day before writing this?” especially the WWPD – I live my life by the What Would the Spurs Do credo. LOL!!
Your first point against trading for Love is completely moot. There will be no trade for Love w/o a signed, sealed and delivered extension at the exact moment the trade is made. If this is not done, it is on a level of stupidity never before seen in sports. And being a Cleveland fan, we’ve seen a lot of stupidity in all 3 sports. If the Cavs trade any number of assets for a season of Love or half-season of Love, Lebron should be allowed to opt out at that moment and all of us turn in our fan cards… Read more »
Thank you! Personally I would like to see at least one year of Bennett, Wiggins, and Waiters playing on a LeBron James led Cavs team so their real value can be evaluated!
Well, if there is a trade for Love before next July 1, it won’t come at the exact same time as an extension. I believe that Love can’t even sign a new deal until he opts out of his current one, but even if he could, it makes more sense financially to wait until he completes this next season to sign a deal.
Yet the rumors persist. Love is not signing an extension. Why would he? Love would be forfeiting a big pay increase in 2015-2016. Just because the Cavs and their fans would want Love to sign an extension, doesn’t make it a reality. You probably read Pluto’s article from earlier today. Let’s just say I disagree with his points, but not his conclusions.
Additionally, if Love- who I assume would be seeking a max contract- bides his time for another year by taking the 1-year player option, then he won’t sign his max deal until 2016-17, after the new TV deal that will drive the salary cap much higher.
No, no, and no. There is no way in hell the Cavs should be looking to move Bennett for Biyombo. That’s worse than giving up Wiggins for Love, and even worse than swapping one Gasol brother in his prime for another fat and out of shape Gasol brother
Why not? It worked out pretty well for Memphis.
It gave two titles to the Lakers. I think it worked out much better for them.
I was being tongue-in-cheek. The Grizz got an unexpected all-star.
Does that mean Tony will be a two time all-star because he shares the fat and out of shape moniker…?
Just keep Wiggins. Getting Love would be great, but I don’t want to give up Wiggins.
Don’t trade Wiggins. Let’s see what we have. I’m sure if a deal is imminent, the Wolves will give us a chance to beat it.
“Trading for Love will be much easier next summer”
Taking the bold assumption that he won’t be moved before the summer.
“the Cavs should be looking at Marc Gasol”
Absolutely, but I again ask, why would Memphis be looking to move him?
Because, like Love, he’s a free agent next summer.
With the key difference being that Love wants out, while Gasol seems to want to stay. That might only be a minor issue though.
And the second key difference being Memphis believes they can contend for the West, and Minnesota hopes they can simply make the playoffs for the first time in forever. The Grizz aren’t looking to blow things up – they signed Vince Carter, extended Randolph, etc.
Yes, the Grizz surely don’t want to trade Gasol now. But, every playoff team in the west is either better or the same except Houston, but they are still making the playoffs either way. The Suns and Pelicans are going to be better than the Grizz. Miller and Davis are gone, the front office is a mess and a new / not great new coach. High chance they miss the play-offs. From there they are not getting better only worse. Can’t attract free agents. Gasol will see the writing on the wall and want to play for a winner. Either… Read more »
The new ownership has been talking about a rebuild for a while now. It’s why there was so much uncertainty about Zach Randolph’s contract.
Jordan Adams is going to be a game change for the Grizzlies. They will surprise a lot of teams. They’re a dark horse in the west.