More Links to the Present: Big Love Edition
2014-06-12
Love
Kevin Love in USA Today’s thebiglead. “I don’t think the Cleveland [trade rumors] are outlandish at all. They have a great young foundation.” Let the world of Cavs fandom turn on its axis. Let the Cleveland media hysteria commence. Let Mallory read this article and have a five minute conversation with the life sized Kevin Love Fathead on his wall and, then, pen a sonnet… Jason McIntyre (interviewer) has rocked our worlds. If you don’t think KLove enjoys teasing everyone à la LeBron James circa 2009, then I have a social media IPO I’d like you to invest in.
Draft
More Embiid news from Chad Ford who’s moved Embiid to the top of his draft board (Insider required).
Big men always take a little longer to develop, and while Embiid is both athletic and skilled, his basketball IQ remains low, he can get frustrated when things are not going his way and many GMs are predicting he’s going to be a foul magnet as a rookie. “He’s going to foul out in about 15 minutes every night,” one GM said. “He’s overeager right now, and the vets will take advantage of that. In three years he has the chance to be the best center in the game, but Embiid is a long-term play. It’s going to take him several years to be an impact player on a playoff team.
This one is almost a couple weeks old, but it is one of the more interesting new draft analytics pieces I’ve seen. Jacob Frankel at Hickory High gave us a draft model for projecting NBA success.
The general format of the draft model is a massive multiple regression looking at the correlation between players’ NBA success and their college statistics (and some other info)…
The model sees this draft as reallllly deep. The first guy below a minus-one ASPM projection (which is still solid role player levels) is past the 20th spot on the board. And there are eight players with positive projections.
The takeaways? The model loves Jordan Adams (right?) and Marcus Smart, and thinks highly of Embiid and Parker (Wiggins stats aren’t awful, just not stratospheric — which we knew). And Frankel says this of Doug McDermott. “Nobody with combined block and steal rates as low as McDermott’s has been a valuable NBA player.”
And, of course, Joel Embiid visted with the Cavs, yesterday. Jason Lloyd provides the details. No word on whether he’s working out and meeting with doctors, Today.
Coaching
Also in that Lloyd article, there’s this tidbit.
One source with knowledge of the Cavs’ search, speaking on condition of anonymity because they aren’t making the search public, estimated the team has contacted about 11 coaching candidates. Three are expected to return for second interviews. Gentry is the first, and [then] fellow Clippers assistant Tyronn Lue.
Bob Finnan of The Morning Journal has this on Mark Jackson and Nate McMillan. Basically? McMillan: maybe; Jackson: probably not.
Warriors have been quietly confident they could land David Blatt. Blatt quoted today as saying it would be “no dishonor” to be NBA assistant
— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) June 12, 2014
Looks like Blatt is going to be a Warriors assistant, as he’s expected to announce he’s leaving Maccabi Tel Aviv, shortly.
Kawhi Leonard
Kawhi Leonard emerged from his genuflecting chrysalis in the first two games of the NBA finals to go on a Heat destroying rampage in the NBA finals, Tuesday. At this point, it looks like he might be the best player from the 2011 draft. His future is as bright as anyone’s from that class.
Tom Ziller of SBNation tells us we’re wrong to give all the credit for Leonard’s development to the Spurs and Leonard’s huge hands. Yes, the Spurs are a great organization, but Kawhi Leonard, the person, deserves a lion’s share of the credit.
How about giving Kawhi himself the credit for being a determined defender, a fearless attacker, a whipsmart theft artist? It’s almost as if some believe Kawhi’s hands are sentient, that they run him and not vice versa…
When NBA players get praised, their willingness to heed authority gets way too much credit at the expense of the player himself.Kawhi didn’t have a stunning Game 3 just because Pop told him to. Kawhi had a stunning Game 3 because he’s put in the work his entire career to prepare himself for these moments, and because he played his tail off.
If it weren’t for Anthony Bennett (and yes, the jury is still out on AB15), passing on Kawhi Leonard could be considered the greatest failure of the Chris Grant era. Let’s get in the time machine back and go back to 2011, and read what we were all saying about Leonard leading up to the draft. The talk that Leonard wasn’t in the conversation is bunk. Kawhi was certainly in the conversation before the lottery, according to WFNY’s Andrew Schnitkey. And he was certainly in that conversation early after the lottery, when Slam projected Leonard to go 4th to the Cavs.
Our own Kevin Hetrick wrote of Leonard, “Leonard will be a valuable NBA player, but likely won’t be a top echelon offensive or defensive player.” Chris Grant must have read Hetrick’s piece and changed the pick. Kawhi Leonard obviously stares angrily at Kevin’s picture at each workout, but Kevin’s reasoning was sound. Kawhi did not shoot well in college, did not test extremely well for agility and leaping at the combine, and he wasn’t the most engaged defender in college. (The Aztecs were better with him off the floor than on). The lesson? The draft is an inexact science, but identifying the person your team wants to draft is just as important as that players’ measurable attributes. Draft a player with fantastic physical tools, a clearly defined role, and the work ethic and intelligence to improve. It’s for these reasons that, despite his struggles, I still haven’t given up Tristan Thompson, the person. (And, yes. I know this is a contradictory position.)
Miscellaneous
Summer Plans? The Cavs have released their Summer League schedule: July 11th-21st in Las Vegas.
Finally, The video from TheWaitIsOver party put on by Dion Waiters and friends this last weekend in Philly… It’s phenomenal. I can’t post the video here, because it’s R-Rated for language, but it’s a fantastic glimpse into Dion’s world when he decides to live the high life. Never change, Dion. (Should I be concerned that he looks a little doughy?)
FYI on first hour of The Really Big Show on WKNR: Tony Rizzo reported that Embiid was flagged w/ multiple medical issues by Cavs docs, Thurs. Will not be the No 1. pick. Rizzo said he had two seperate sources.
So Wiggins it is.
Thanks for sharing, Nate.
If that’s the case, I may finally be off the Embiid train and hoping for Wiggins.
That may be so . . . but I don’t believe in “sources” any more.
Its insane how much people undervalue Love. The “well, he has never taken his team to the playoffs” argument is so silly. He plays in the West and he has very mediocre teammates. He missed most of last year, played all of this year, and his team improved by 9 wins. In the west. He is clearly an elite player who paired with some decent players would win.
I hope the management doesn’t even consider trading the pick for Love, Kevin has been in NBA for six years and hasn’t been able to take his team to playoff, Bosh is a better player than Love and he took his team to playoff . Trading the pick + Waiter and TT for Love is stupid, if I was in charge of Timberwolves , I would trade Love for TT and Waiter in a heart beat. So please no more of this kind of Love. San Antonio has shown under Papa how to put a team together, Cavs should learn… Read more »
If the Cavs could actually get Love for TT and Wiaters, then they should aboslutely do that.
Love’s Minnesota Team >>> Bosh’s Toronto team . The Wolves would have been a third seed in the east…
Yeh, but that don’t mean nothing. We are talking playoff, playoff , playoff.
Underdog: I think getting Gilbert and Manziel was awesome, so I am ready.
So who’s going to make the pick? Griffin (Embiid) or Gilbert (Wiggins)?
It’s been fun talking about this for a month, but what’s going to play out will be just as surprising as CB Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel.
Where was Kyrie in that party video?!?!?!?!
It’s pretty remarkable just how foggy the future of this team is. We all have our opinions and we know what ‘sources’ are saying, but we really don’t know what Gilbert and Griffin are doing or thinking.
Somewhere deep inside of me thinks we are in for a shock, or three, before this month is over. And when they come, I hope for our sanity, that it turns out for the good.
“Draft a player with fantastic physical tools, a clearly defined role, and the work ethic and intelligence to improve.” This is why I’d take Embiid over Wiggins any day. If you told me Wiggins had given up an olympic volleyball career to try basketball 4 years ago, and Embiid has been a stud, can’t miss recruit, playing for the best youth coaches in the world for just as long, I’d believe you based on how they looked at KU. Wiggins is incredible, but he really doesn’t look the part of a guy who is pretty refined and has been honing… Read more »
“Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobilli, and Kawhi Leonard as a foursome might just be better than LeBron, Bosh and Wade right now.”
Well, they weren’t last year.
We’ll find out if that’s a true statement in about a week.
Right. It’s very close though. My main point is that the Spurs aren’t some rag tag bunch of nobodies. They have 3 HOF in Duncan, Parker, and Ginobilli.
People are acting like it’s some David vs Goliath situation. In reality the Spurs were favored to win.
3 HOF doesn’t remotely equate to 3 HOF in the prime of their careers. LeBron (29), Bosh (30), and Wade (32) compared to Parker (32), Ginobili (36), and Duncan (38).
It is REMARKABLE what the Spurs continue to do. It is REMARKABLE what the Spurs are able to get out of players like Mills, Diaw, Green, Splitter, Bonner, Bellinelli, etc.
How does Popovich not deserve a lion’s share of the credit for this?
Well, they definitely were last year. They were an easy defensive rebound away and then an easy tip in from a HOF who makes that shot 11 out of 10 times from winning the series in 6…
Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobilli, and Kawhi Leonard as a foursome might just be better than LeBron, Bosh and Wade right now.
I don’t think that’s all on the coach.
You can easily make the same argument for the Heat. They have one superstar in LeBron and 2 All-Stars. Maybe Spoelstra should be given more credit and Poppovich less.
The best player in the world + 2 All Stars > A 2nd Team All-NBA PG, A 2nd Team All-Defense SF, and two aging former stars Hands down. Not even close. But when you start to consider how the ancillary players are performing for each team and how prepared the respective benches are, how well the team is executing its offensive and defensive systems, and how much effort they are giving on the biggest basketball stage, so far it has clearly been Spurs > Heat. All of those factors are tied back to coaching. Popovich deserves all of the credit… Read more »
Such bunk to assume Leonard would be anywhere near the player he currently is on a crap team. Just a ludicrous assumption.
Agreed, Kj. Because you know Danny Green was so spectacular in Cleveland…
You’re arguing with Ziller on that one.
As it is in most cases, I think the truth lies somwhere between the two cases being presented. I think Kawhi clearly was worthy of a lottery pick – he wouldn’t be a scrub in Cleveland, Sacramento, or Milwaukee. But I also think it’s crazy talk to suggest that he would be the same player he has become at the age of 22 in San Antonio – with those Hall of Fame teammates and one of the best coaches in the history of the NBA – had he ended up in one of those aforementioned franchises mired in dysfunction.
It’s a chicken and egg debate. Is he the best “coach” because he finds the best players, or do the best players want to play for him because he’s the best coach?
He’s a really good coach. But Leonard seems like a guy who would’ve been good no matter where he ended up. Danny Green is a different story. He had to get cut multiple times before he figured it out.
And Pop is a good coach, but sometimes he gets way too much credit. Duncan, Parker, Ginobilli, Leonard are all great players, It’s not like he’s had the Cavs roster over the past decade.
Tim Duncan is the best power forward of all time, in my opinion. However, he hasn’t been in the prime of his career for quite some time. Ginobili is a sure fire Hall of Famer and arguably the greatest foreign SG to ever play in the NBA, but he is far past his prime as well. Tony Parker is among the best PGs in the NBA (when healthy – which is somewhat infrequent). Leonard is a promising young player. The rest are spare parts that San Antonio has either revitalized (see: Diaw, Boris) or developed that other teams seemingly could… Read more »
Tristan Thompson would currently be the envy of this draft had he fallen to the Spurs.
The point folks seem to be missing is that Leonard would HAVE to have been the 2nd offensive option immediately on the Cavs, something he still isn’t on the Spurs, for crying out loud! So, his whole damn development is up for debate after one considers that situation. Furthermore, you folks act like playing next to/with 3 future HOF’s has little effect on his development. We’ve seen what NOT having good veteran players had meant to Kyrie’s development. Again, it is ludicrous to even entertain the notion that Leonard would be the same player as a Cav as he is… Read more »
We still had Jamison
And Blatt did announce he is leaving for the NBA, but the press conference did not eliminate the possibility of him becoming the head coach of the Cavs in any way.
#TeamBlatt
#TeamEmbiid
“In three years he has the chance to be the best center in the game, but Embiid is a long-term play. It’s going to take him several years to be an impact player on a playoff team.”
I really want the Cavs to select Embiid, but can Griffin convince Gilbert that it’s in the best interest for the team if the above quote from a GM is the league consensus on Embiid? I hope so, but I have my doubts. Gilbert hasn’t exactly seemed like a patient man of late.
I can see the narrative already. If Griffin picks the guy people want him to pick then he made a great pick. If he picks someone you didn’t want, then it’s Gilbert’s fault. Just as drafting Tristan Thompson was Grant’s fault.
Gilbert does not seem to be deciding what players are picked. If Griffin screws it up it’s on him, not Gilbert. Unless evidence emerges that Gilbert told Griffin he had to pick a certain player.
I love Dan Gilbert. Although, he’s the one that has signed off on a number of rash decisions lately (not that I disliked all of them necessarily).
Such as?
Mike Brown was hired by the GM, Chris Grant. And subsequently fired by Gilbert because he was a horrible coach last year. I don’t think that’s a rash decision. He’s been fired plenty.
Well we can play a guessing game on who was behind each decision, but we don’t know for sure… However, the following moves have added to the reputation of Dan Gilbert starting to take a much more hands on approach and wanting the Cavaliers to find some “shortcuts” to contention: Starting with the proclamation at the 2013 Draft Lottery that the Cavs would not be back in the lottery in 2014 (oops!): 1. Fired Byron Scott (technically before the ’13 lottery but it fits the narrative – Scott was given a roster designed to tank and when it did, he… Read more »
LOVE LOVE LOVE!!!!!!!!!!
That is all…
DW has kind of a Napoleon look going.