Initial Thoughts on the Deng Trade
2014-01-06
Well, that was unexpected. After an extended dance with the Lakers about a possible Bynum-Gasol swap, the Cavs have decided to trade Andrew Bynum’s immediately erasable contract and 3 draft picks to the Bulls for Luol Deng and his $14.275 million expiring contract. I’m going to come right out and say it: This trade carries some long-term risks, but in the short-term, it’s an absolute coup for Chris Grant, and just might save his job. Here are the things I like about the trade:
1) Defense, Defense, Defense
As long-time readers of this blog know, I have always been a Mike Brown apologist, and feel he never gets the credit he deserves for turning the Cavaliers into an elite defensive squad during his first stint with the team. As short-term watchers of Cavalier basketball know, Mike Brown has been an absolute disaster on both ends of the floor this season, and the team has only been league-average defensively while being an absolute nightmare on offense. This trade gives Brown another really, really good defensive piece to play with, which he desperately needed. Deng is still an elite defender — the Bulls are 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency and they’re 4.5 points per 100 possessions better defensively when Deng is on the court. Having a stopper on the wing, as well as a high-profile player who buys in on defense, should help the Cavs tremendously on that end of the floor.
2) He comes from the right culture.
I alluded to this above, but I’ll give it it’s own paragraph here. Deng comes from the kind of team that the Cavaliers should aspire to be. They (were) built around a scoring point guard, they played brilliant, intricate, suffocating defense, and they out-worked their opponent almost every night. That’s how they won the most games in the East during Rose’s MVP year, and that’s how they stayed competitive when Rose got injured. If Deng can get Cavalier players to buy into that mentality, it’ll be a huge deal. (Short version: Luol Deng is the opposite of Rudy Gay.)
3) A target for Kyrie — on the wing!
Deng isn’t the prototypical #2 guy for Kyrie on the perimeter. He’s not a great shooter, he works in isolation a lot, and he generally likes the ball in his hands. Still, Deng is an above-average passer for a small forward, which is great considering he’ll be playing alongside of Irving and Waiters in crunch time, he’s a fantastic finisher at the rim, which is something the Cavaliers desperately need, and his combination of basketball IQ and toughness should be an absolute godsend after the parade of wings the Cavaliers have trotted out in the post-LeBron era. Deng’s relatively weak outside shooting keeps him from being a traditional sidekick, but he’s always found ways to score at a decent (if not thrilling) rate of efficiency, and there’s no reason to believe that won’t continue in Cleveland.
4) The only player the Cavs traded is one who they had banned from the team for the rest of time.
That sort of explains itself. So long, Bynum experiment.
5) According to the numbers, Deng is somehow not breaking down physically.
Deng has been playing “If he dies, he dies” minutes for the last few seasons, and missed time last season because of a BOTCHED SPINAL TAP. 28-year old male humans should not be needing spinal taps. That’s a bad thing. And Deng, when not playing 37.4 minutes per game this season because I CAN FEEL A PULSE NOW GET BACK OUT THERE AND SHOW HARD ON THAT DAMN PICK AND ROLL, has missed some games with injuries. However, when he’s played, he’s somehow been having one of his best seasons in years. His PER is as high as it’s been since the 06-07 season, and his TS% has only been higher in 06-07 and the year Rose was healthy and the league MVP. So, fingers crossed, we’re not getting a Luol Deng running on fumes here, which was a pretty major cause with Pau Gasol.
6) Expiring contract!
If Deng does break down, or doesn’t mesh with the team, or whatever, guess what? His contract is coming off the books after this season! It’s all the same! There’s no long-term risk financially here? (Again, I cannot tell you how thrilled I am that Deng is not Rudy Gay.) The only thing that’s happening here is that Dan Gilbert will have to spend more money. And we here at Cavs: The Blog are always willing to spend Dan Gilbert’s money in order to help the Cavaliers. It’s just the kind of giving souls we are. And this means the Cavs will still have the flexibility to sign LeBron! (Note: the Cavs are not going to sign LeBron.)
7) No major assets were given up.
When I first saw that the Cavs had given up two second round picks, a first, and a right to swap for Deng, I thought Grant had gone into a Paxson panic and made a Jiri Welsch-esque “I’m fired if this doesn’t work, so who cares about the future?” trade. However, the “1st-round pick” is almost certainly not going to be in the first round, since it comes from Sacramento and is top-12 protected. (One more time: THANK GOD FOR RUDY GAY.) In fact, the pick is top-10 protected through 2017, which means that the pick won’t come back to bite the Cavs until Sacramento gets out of the cellar, which could take a while, or if Chicago hits the jackpot and finds a franchise-changing player outside of the top 10. As for the second-rounders, it’s hard to feel too bad about them when the Cavs have one lottery pick who can’t crack the rotation and another who shouldn’t be in the rotation. TYLER ZELLER IS A RELATIVE SUCCESS AMONG RECENT CAVS LOTTERY PICKS. As for the pick-swap, that’s pretty well protected too.
DOWNSIDES:
1) Spacing.
As mentioned above, Deng is a pretty poor shooter for a high-profile NBA wing. He’s shooting 27.4% from deep, and he’s not much better on long twos. Considering that the Cavs already have some pretty serious issues with spacing, that’s a legitimate concern, especially since you’d love to see someone able to give Waiters and Irving more space to work in in the paint.
2) Deng is an old 28.
I mentioned this above, but it’s concerning that Deng has been playing 38 minutes a night for the last few years, had a spinal tap procedure that almost killed him during last year’s playoffs, has missed games this year, and was given up for a player who will not be playing basketball anytime soon willingly. I can’t shake the feeling Deng is going to age like an NFL running back — one day, he’s just going to be DONE, and some team will be stuck with a substantial bill. I just hope it’s not the Cavs. That takes us to…
3) I am terrified of signing Deng to an extension.
As of now, I love this deal. The Cavs can get some pride back, some wins under their belt, make an actual run at a playoff seed, and feel like a real basketball team again. Despite the current theory that tanking is a panacea, that strategy generally works just as well for getting teams out of the gutter than bottoming out does. However, I will want to eat a compact fluorescent lightbulb if the team signs Deng at $15-17 million through his age 32 year, because he’s not going to take the team any further than the first round and at some point his next contract will become an albatross. (Joe Johnson is currently 32. That should terrify you.) If the Cavs extend Deng immediately, I will go insane. If they extend him on the strength of a first-round playoff appearance and exit, I will also go insane.
Fortunately, they probably won’t extend Deng right away, because they want to keep their slim hopes of getting LeBron alive (and honestly, LeBron is worth it, despite the odds), and won’t extend him on the strength of a first-round playoff birth, because I still don’t think the Cavs are making the playoffs. This trade will help, but the Hollinger odds have the Cavs with a 10.4% chance to make it in as of today. Only the Bucks have lower odds of making the playoffs in the East, and I don’t think Deng is enough of a game-changer to completely turn it around.
The bottom line, though, is that this move represents a step in the right direction for the Cavaliers, and I look forward to them getting much more watchable in the near future. Things will get squicky for me when the time comes to decide on re-signing Deng, but until them I’m happy about this one. Until next time, campers.
KJ, I’m not really sure I want the cavs to tank but I want to keep that door open unless we can add a KLove type. Most people didn’t over-rate last years draft pick. I was advocating trading the 1 overall for a top 3 protected 2014 pick. Most people thought that was nuts then but that’s cause they were in win now mode not because they thought the Cavs were going to get a franchise changing player. The expectation was if we got a starter it was a good pick. That was a fairly good bar to judge by.… Read more »
Raoul the Pistons did it. LBJ= Magic Johnson, Kobe= Jordan, Kevin Durant= Bird. At least that’s how I look at the classics comparisons. The simple point I’m trying to make is that MOST teams that win championships do not draft their entire roster like the Spurs do. Yeah they tend to draft at least one really great player. But it seems that Kyrie is a really good player who only needs to learn better D and how to trust his teammates. Good players will want to come play for a good team, There have been a LOT of great players… Read more »
Terrific write up John. I was okay with this being a development year or whatever, but I wanted them to make the leap. This deal had to happen now. The trade deadline would be too late. The difference between Deng and Gee is comparable to eating lobster rather than a hot dog. Spacing issues aside, the Cavs got significantly better. Deng is the best #2 for the Cavs in two decades. One of the issues I had with the Bynum signing was the youth of the roster. These guys are young and impressionable. Deng is one of the most selfless… Read more »
Nate,
Thanks for organizing my thoughts! You are a good writer.
With that said, there is clearly some chance this will turn out to be a great trade. Might as well hope so!
It’s crazy to think that people believe this could be anything other than a fantastic move for us. Look, tanking sucks. We’ve been doing it. We have Kyrie Irving who, despite his lack of real improvement this year, could still be traded for just about any players outside of LBJ and KD right now for a team looking to build a winner. We just picked up an ALL-STAR SF to fill the biggest weakness on our team. Analysts on ESPN earlier today said they could see us being the #3 team in the East this year after this trade (seems… Read more »
Rescued your comment, Ross. To try to paraphrase Raoul and many others here, and to offer the counter-argument for Deng (which i don’t really believe); trying to compare the last three years of drafts to the current year, is folly. In 2011 and 2012 there was one player in each draft clearly superior to every other player, or at least that was the general thinking at the time, and it has proven to be true. The rest of those drafts have yielded some O.K. players, but no sure fire stars. Klay Thompson probably comes the closest out of the 2011… Read more »
Great pick up. Let’s win. Let’s enjoy watching the Cavs the rest of the season. Get some playoff experience. Keep Kyrie, Dion and others interested.
Deng is a well rounded player. Knows basketball and knows how to win. Those are the Cavs’ two greatest deficiencies.
Deng is a lot more than we got for the last 3 second rounders. Probably more than what we got all the way back to the Boobie Gibson selection.
JHill, LBJ was the only player in the draft that anyone thought was the “next MJ”. And guess what, he is. In twenty years, the debate will be between LBJ and Oscar, with MJ or Russell third.
Furthermore, winning culture is absolutely needed. But, it doesn’t do any good if you don’t have the horses. How often has a team made it to the finals by playing smart without top level talent?
Nobody in this or any draft is a sure A+. But the smart move is to be in on maybe the best lottery ever.
Anytime you write a long comment you should right click and save the draft, then click “submit comment.” If the monster gets it you come back to this box and just paste it. Get in the habit.
Save my recent comment from the Monster please!
I would also add that beyond culture, efficiency really matters in winning. The pistons have an awfully inefficient player in J. Smith who is truly hurting the team. Because he is such an efficient scorer and really good defender, I think Deng gets the Cavs a few extra wins and into the 8th playoff spot.
Wholeheartedly agree with JHill and Kj. We are LOADED with “draft assets” which I’m definining as the players we have drafted post-LeBron (Kyrie, TT, Dion, Zeller, AB, etc.) and the plethora of future draft picks we still possess. It’s unrealistic to think that this team is going to become championship caliber through draft assets alone, but it appears that’s what many of you want. Do you just want the Cavs to keep sucking, drafting unproven youngsters, and making trades for additional draft picks? That’s not the recipe for a winning organization. Trades and free agent signings are now needed to… Read more »
Only one team has won a championship almost entirely through the draft and player development: Spurs. How has every other championship been won? trades and FA signings. Boston, LA, Miami, Dallas. There are more than one way to skin a cat.
KSD: NOTHING IN THE DRAFT IS 100% CERTAIN this is not 2K14 where the draft automatically has 3 A+ players 3 A 4 B so on and so on. How many next comings of Jordan have there been? Probably 1 almost every draft in the past 20 years. And only 1, Kobe even came close. So lets slow our roll for a moment. People knew LBJ would be good, but no one had any idea he’d be a transcendent player that would change the way people even look at the SF position and how someone can build a team.
Culture does matter. Drummond most definitely is helping the pistons win though. Without him they would be much worse.
You guys who think we shouldn’t make the playoffs this year are delusional. So often I see this “fantasy basketball” mentality amongst commenters on Cavs-related blogs and this is a prime example. Always over-rating draft picks. Always looking at players in a statistical vacuum. Always under-rating veteran players. The Cavs have talent. They need help on the MENTAL and EXPERIENCE/LEADERSHIP side. You can be skeptical of the “leadership” thing all you like but every single winning team mentions it in interview after interview, so clearly it matters to the actual players. Again, we have more talent on this team than… Read more »
@zeek: This draft is incredibly deep. As long as we are in the bottom 5-6, we’re going to get an awesome player 100% for sure, even if the top 3 picks go to teams better than us, and if we are doing that badly, chances are we will get a much better pick than that. That’s why I think tanking is a good idea. As for Dion/TT, I would snap trade either of them in a heartbeat if it meant we were going to get Parker or Wiggins or Randle or Exum even Embiid. In particular, from watching Dion, I’m… Read more »
The Cavs playing with a live body at SF might show the young players and the management how close they are to competing. If they suck it up even with Deng, than at least Grant knows that this version of the rebuild project is a failure(or needs a ton of work). If they have some success, make the playoffs even, then Grant knows the team is a little closer than the 11-whatever record they had to start. I don’t see why they should have cut Bynum for nothing. Call me out if the Cavs championship was lost on a 2017… Read more »
I like Deng but I don’t like this trade. The only real positive I take from this is that he’s a defensive beast that should help us win this year. He may be expensive to resign (which is part of why Chicago let him go) and it’s likely we that whatever we offer him after this season we could have offered anyway as Chicago wasn’t likely going to be able to keep him. So in short, we got him 6 months earlier than we would have and cost us 3 picks more. Not a great deal for a team that… Read more »
How is Dengs body going to react to not playing 48 minutes a night?
I don’t think getting an 8 seed is the end all be all. I think you can cut into CJ’s, Clark’s, and Andy’s minutes (unless you want him hurt again) to get 10-15 for AB. Optimally Delly won’t be needed for his defense as much either with Deng in the fold. I love the Delly story, but he’s not a piece for the long term future. If its him or AB, I’d give the minutes to AB for development. (obviously not play AB at the 2, but slide CJ over there more.)
I’m excited to see it on the court.
Very good chance we are still a lottery team w/ Deng and still have a chance at this heralded draft class. Regardless of what happens we replaced Bynum (aka Jack Parkman from Major League II) with a pro’s pro, we filled a HUGE positional need, and hopefully we breathed some fresh life into a team that desperately needs it.
Agree with Rodney Mac: How is it Grant’s fault that the last three years have been the historic worst three year stretch? And that he didn’t guess the one or two surprises that no one else saw? Naturally we don’t like the idea of tanking, but what else could possibly get the Cavs to contender status in a couple years? Furthermore, this is the best year ever to tank, and now the Cavs have helped the Bulls do it. On the other hand, Deng appears to be a model team player. If he is a good influence on KI and… Read more »
I think this trade signifies “win now”, and given AB’s performance you can’t play him over any of the players above can you?
No minutes for GDB?
Since this move clearly signifies “win now” what do you think should be MPG breakout? My preferred (assuming injury free):
Guards:
Kyrie 32
Dion 30
Jack 15
Miles 10
Delly 9
Forwards:
Deng 32
Miles 16
Thompson 32
Clark 16
Center:
Andy 32
Zeller 16
I think Bennet/Gee are the odd men out. Clark was decent as a backup PF, but given AB15’s struggles, I don’t think you can continue to play him given this trade. Thoughts?
There 10 players in this draft rated way higher than anyone in last years draft. 5 potential superstars and a Westbrook prototype in Smart. I see why some people want to tank
Deng’s 3pt percentage went down because he injured his shooting wrist and never got the surgery the doctors recommended because it was during the playoffs.
I don’t think anyone can say Grant’s a shoddy drafter. The only player he’s clearly missed is Drummond and that would of been a reach at 4. But he did sign Jack and I really don’t think Deng fits. You can only cut and slash if there is space on the floor. Watching the cavs this year I’ve never seen and NBA offense create this less space. (well memphis this year, and Philly last year and the bobcats but you get my point). Deng for the last 4 season has shot 34, 36, 32, and 27 none of those create… Read more »
Grats on getting a class act player. He is the kinda guy every team needs. As a Bulls fan I’m going to miss rooting for Deng. I hope he gets everything he deserves. And it sounds like he is exactly what this team needed.
@ksd Tanking guarantees nothing. The 6-7 teams in the East, and 2 out West are already tanking the season hard. There’s no guarantee that the Cavs land a top 3-4 pick that gives a true franchise player. All these losses are really lowering the value that Dion and TT have especially. Kyrie’s an All-Star so his “value” is more immune to that effect, but at the same time, the losses are demoralizing and damaging to him too. This team has a lot of talent and assets, but right now some of that talent doesn’t fit together. Devaluing the talent with… Read more »
I know a bunch of you criticized me bringing up WP/48 for Dion, but here I go anyway for Deng. Deng is pretty solid and efficient. His WP/48 is .148, so he should help the Cavs win a few extra games.
Hate this. Why are the Cavs trying to win games when it’s obvious our core (with or without Deng) is nowhere close to championship caliber, and the strongest draft class in years is coming up? Grant and Gilbert should see the writing’s on the wall and tank hard.
One other point here: If you learned during this past off season that the Cavs traded 2 second round picks (of the 7 that they had over the next 3 years), the Sacto conditional pick, and $6 million for Deng without giving up any players, would you be happy? How could you not? If so, that is exactly what Grant just did. Bynum is the only player given up, and he was signed as a free agent in the off season and costed us only $6 million. I am not saying this will work out perfect, but its a no-brainer… Read more »
Wish Krolik would stay away. He followed Lebron’s jockstrap out of here to write about the Heat. Now he keeps his name on the blog and comes back now and then when there is a big story and he know there will be lots of eyeballs?? No thanks. Lots of good writing going on without you John. Please don’t come back
One other point here: If you learned during the past off season that the Cavs traded 2 second round picks (of the 7 that they had over the next 3 years), the Sacto conditional pick, and $6 million for Deng without giving up any players, would you be happy? How could you not? If so, that is exactly what Grant just did. Bynum is the only player given up, and he was signed as a free agent in the off season and costed us only $6 million. I am not saying this will work out perfect, but its a no-brainer… Read more »
Like was said, I think Grant is great at making moves outside of draft night.
As for the Bynum contract. It takes a player like Bynum to make that work. No fully healthy, capable player is going to give so many outs in his contract if he doesn’t have to do so. Bynum also has the security of knowing that someone will sign him to some kind of contract until he is 40 if he really wants to keep playing.
@Ben – A key point you raise: Deng’s three point % was lower the last two years, which were the years Rose was out. My guess is that his catch and shoot percentage is 35-40%. He is still a threat, and I am expect him to get his three point percentage back up to 33-35% with us.
Does anyone know where we can see catch and shoot %’s for the Dengster?
Nice summary Ben. And I dissagree with John about this not making us a playoff team. I mean, Deng is going to be probably our best two way player, and he’s replacing our 9th best player in the starting line-up and while it’s only been 4 games, Not playing Bynum is addition by subtraction. Add in the fact that TT, Kyrie, Dion, and Zeller should continue to improve as a group and might actually develop chemistry and trust with a winning presence like Deng around, and I think the cavs will easily make the playoffs in the weak east. Certainly… Read more »
@a thompson
It was only the Sacto first, which will never come, and 2 2nd rounders
@Ben-
You are correct in your assessment of the Bynum signing.
While Grant’s performance as a drafter is shoddy at best….his performance in trades and managing cap space has been brilliant. I think the Bynum deal will actually be a paradigm-shifter. Get ready to see similar copy-cat contracts pop up all over the league going forward.
Grant was magical. Let’s properly appreciate what he did. 1. The entire Bynum deal was genius. By signing a player to that kind of contract, we could offer instant cap relief to any team that needed it. The fact his contract technically counted as 12 mil for trade purposes, but also immediate cap relief with the opt out clause, allowed us to acquire a real player without having to package anyone else. We basically created a trade exception with Bynum. A manufactured chip. 2. If only for the contract, the Bynum deal was amazing, but considering he did show some… Read more »
I like Deng – He is a smart, successful player and will bring a needed veteran presence. If we really wanted him, I’d have preferred to sign him as a free agent. The downside of this deal is that it likely means the Cavs will miss out on a potential superstar/all-star in the best draft class since Lebron joined the league. Before this trade, the Cavs were in a good position to have a top 5 pick. With Deng, the Cavs might eek into the play-offs as a 7-8 seed. Make no mistake, the 2014 draft class is LOADED with… Read more »
Zero –
Couldn’t agree more. Hoarding picks/assets is only effective when they’re still picks/assets – the time was quickly approaching when they’d soon be meaningless. Grant finally pulled the trigger on a major trade. Love it.
Deng is a winner, comes from the perfect team model for the Cavs, and plays in the position the Cavs most needed. What about this trade does not scream “perfect?”
I like the deal the Cavs bring in a player who’s known for playing team ball it reduces the three guard line up. What’s wrong with the Cavs being average on defense, last three seasons they been historically bad on defense league average is a HUGE improvement for this team. Deng may not space the floor well at least the defense has to worry about him scoring compare to all the players who have been playing the 3 this season.
Enjoy your all-star rental thru April. No way Deng, a free agent July 1st, resigns w/ the Cavs. He rejected a last minute $30 million/3 years deal from the Bulls, which is why they agreed to this trade. Cavs shouls of stuck with their plan of collecting & drafting players, all star free agents don’t sign w/ Cleveland.
bad trade 3 first round picks come on man
Good running back analogy, John. I can’t imagine a scenario where Deng WANTS to resign with Cleveland anyway, but if we got into a bidding war and couldn’t find another wing to replace him soon enough to stop bidding, a contract for Deng will be really annoying. Like the time we gave Boobie Gibson (even though I LOVE Bobbie) a rather too large extension after he had largely passed his effective years.
Rodney Mac you can think of it this way, he doesn’t shoot well from the 3 but he still manages 45% FG on the season. Kyrie is the outlet that he never had in Rose and we all know that Dion and Miles can hit spot ups. He knows how to win games though and that’s why we need him.
I am just happy to see Krolik writing
The one positive is that If Clark, Waiters, and Irving play with Deng and AV or TT when Deng has the ball there should be a little more space. It’s a shame though that that lineup won’t ever be used.
I would rather of grabbed Jefferson while giving up no 1st. At least he can shoot even if he needs a wheelchair on defense.
I hate this move. We need shooters so bad. So Bad. And we bring in a slashing/post Iso 3 who can’t shoot. I’d a rather seen miles get some minutes at the 3. The reason this team is shooting a league worst 51% from the restricted area is because there is no room in it. Even Kyrie who is an incredible finisher is struggling at the rim this year. Get some shooters and Dion, Kyrie, And TT will all improve down there
Tyler Zeller was picked like 17th, right? That is outside the lottery, John…
This is the first move CG has made this year that gets a perfect grade from me. This had to be done. Hoarding assets is nice, but we needed to start piecing together a winning culture. I’m of the mindset that nothing is guaranteed if we try to tank another year. Putting more losses on Kyrie/Dion/TT just doesn’t sound like the right way to build them up. Bringing in a veteran like Deng is a smart move. And he’s not that old. It’s not like the Jefferson move that was being contemplated earlier (which made no sense to me). Deng… Read more »