3:48 Remaining in the 1st quarter
2013-11-25
It is possible that Saturday night’s effort by the Cavaliers makes this whole article a waste of my effort, basically only serving as a means to process my own fears & anxieties about the Cavs. If the performance against the Spurs didn’t reinforce this enough though, make no mistake, the early parts of this season are horrible for the Cleveland Cavaliers mission to build a contender. This early stretch of games has seen a regression during key developmental years for all of the Cavs’ core youngsters. Obviously that doesn’t help the on-court product, but it also hinders the franchise’s ability to find a way out, destroying trade values and disintegrating hope of a reasonable 2014 free agent haul. A vast deterioration of player development and player compatibility, on and off the court, is at hand. Things need to get better. Fast.
I say this as someone from whom, if there was a spectrum of “optimism / patience” from Cavs fans, I estimate my presence in about the 75th percentile for “don’t panic; give this some time”. Right now though, I feel really stupid. The team is currently on a 23-win pace. And that is with Kyrie playing every game, Andy trending towards 2500 minutes, and Bynum looking to hit the 1000 minute threshold. With those outcomes, one month ago, every Cavs fan would have been saying, “Playoffs, here we come (and not because 30 wins might do it in the Eastern Conference).”
On a slight tangent, I attended the Pacers – 76ers game in Indianapolis on Saturday night, instead of viewing the Cavs get steamrolled by San Antonio. What I saw from Philly contradicted many of the remaining reasons that are given for patience with the Cavs. The Sixers are young, not having suited up a player older than 25 this season, and were sans Thad Young and Spencer Hawes on this particular night. Featuring a new coaching staff, their squad deals with implementing a new system. Their primary 2013 lottery pick still sits on the shelf. On Saturday night against the Pacers, aside from Evan Turner, their entire rotation had played 4023 NBA minutes prior to this season. That is roughly equivalent to Tristan Thompson. And this team has six wins, on Saturday night playing tough against an Eastern Conference elite. On the road. On the second day of a back-to-back. When the first night went to overtime. In a similar situation, Cleveland was annihilated. Embarrassed in San Antonio. If play doesn’t improve next week from the Wine & Gold, this team definitely moved beyond the realm of patience and reasons, and onto excuses.
Every aspect of the young core that seemed promising last season has regressed. Dion’s 104 offensive rating, on 26 usage, from January through March of last season? Tristan’s per-36 minute averages of 15 & 11.3 on 52% true shooting from his last 50 games? Remember when Kyrie was an absolute beast on offense, a 20-year old among the most electric closers in basketball? And then the team adds Anthony Bennett: an explosive, multi-faceted forward — a guy throwing down one-handed dunks from outside the paint. He converted 38% of his NCAA threes, and despite being an offensive focal point as a freshman, of 128 power forwards in the DraftExpress 2012 – 2013 database, Bennett ranked 20th for points per possession used, and also 27th best for least turnovers per possession.
These were all real things that happened. Concrete indicators that the prior youngsters were developing, with hope that a dynamic new addition was coming aboard. With another year of improvement from those building blocks, the addition of Jarrett Jack & Andrew Bynum, and reasonable health from Anderson Varejao, the 2013 – 2014 Cleveland Cavaliers looked primed to make noise.
Instead, through one-sixth of the season, each of the youth have regressed mightily, and the team is in complete disarray.
Through 14 games, Tristan’s per-36 minute numbers average 12.5 and 10, with 50% true shooting. His offensive rebounding and block percentages decline for the third consecutive season, with an assist rate also plummeting to career lows. I like to think Tristan’s issues are tied to the team wide dysfunction, and with a better system engineering good looks near the basket, he will resume last year’s gains. Regardless of left-handed, right-handed, or under-handed, this start to 2013 – 2014 makes Tristan’s likely ideal role consist of converting opportunities created on the boards, or by others.
On similar usage as last year, Waiters’ offensive rating sits at a ridiculously low 90. Instead of building on his promising, pre-injury 33-game stretch from last winter, everything beside his three point shooting has been a regression. Last year, he continually showed increased propensity for getting to the basket and converting while there. This season, neither of those is going well, and his assist rate is declining too, as turnovers increase. The diminished ability to create for others and at the hoop are particularly alarming, as these two items will always be important for Dion to be an efficient second scorer. The fact that he appears to be learning nothing about off-ball movement is also concerning; getting an easy layup or two that way would go a long ways towards improving his scoring efficiency. If he can combine the attacking ability from late last season, with his three-point shooting from this November (38%), while also realizing that he is allowed to move without the ball, Dion can be what the Cavs need him to be. At this point, that just seems very, very far away. And that is fairly alarming.
Part of why is because right now is when perpetual improvement is expected. Currently, Tristan and Dion are in their age-22 seasons. Recently at gotbuckets.com, I have been looking at player aging. As a gross rule, on offense, age 22 and 23 are the final seasons of sharp improvement. These early years are when the noticeable improvement from last winter for Dion and Tristan could have been reasonably expected, and continued growth would be hoped for now. Instead, it has been the opposite.
Regarding Bennett, he has been an unmitigated disaster through fourteen games. His PER is 2.4. On pedestrian usage of 19%, his offensive rating is unfathomable 60. He clearly came into the season out of shape after rehabbing his shoulder injury and has no business playing in NBA games. A short D-League stint appears pretty reasonable until he increases his fitness and re-finds his explosiveness.
Finally, there is Kyrie. This was supposed to be the year that he made the leap. Instead, the early portion of the season has to be a disappointment. By any discernible measure, his play suffers: PER drops from 21+ to 19; Win Shares per 48 minutes nearly cut in half. He is now the NBA’s third highest usage player, and compared to his prior model of efficiency, his true shooting percentage ranks 211th of 316 NBA players.
And what of his clutch play? As a rookie in the final five minutes of games separated by five points or less, he was a maestro, a magician. Scoring 40 points per 36 minutes, with blistering 65% true shooting, he exploded into the league amongst the game’s most dynamic clutch scorers. His usage rate was a mind-blowing 47%, combined with offensive rating of 109; the stuff of dreams, and magic always felt possible. Last season, he was still exceptional, with usage increasing to astronomical 52%, and still producing 40 points per 36 minutes on elite 58% true shooting. Those numbers are crazy talk, and it was hugely exciting. At the end of games, when everyone dials the intensity up a notch, Kyrie was still the best player on the court! And he was 20 years old!! How could Cleveland experience this good fortune so shortly after Lebron leaving?!?
Chinks began to show in that armor though, as he showed a tendency to get sloppy with the ball, turning the rock over 27 times compared to 18 assists. In those “clutch” situations, that amounted to 7.5 turnovers per 36 minutes, and definitely a few losses were cemented by Kyrie over-dribbling. This season in the early going, things have gone off the rails in crunch time. Still with sky-high 46% usage, his offensive rating has plummeted to 88. The baskets aren’t falling, and when the game tightens up, the Cavs look brutal. Last season’s epic 20 point unravelling against the Pacers looks vaguely common place, with Cleveland routinely blowing double-digit leads in the waning minutes. It’s been one of the most unnerving aspects of this early season. When the opponent buckles down and kicks it up a gear, they are frequently able to destroy the Cavs; at those times, the young Clevelanders don’t look they belong in the same League. Against a team that relentlessly executes, like San Antonio, Cleveland isn’t even playing the same Game.
So what’s wrong? Each of the core players previously showed sustained stretches somewhere between “holy shit that guy is good (Kyrie)”, to “that is encouraging performance from a 21-year old (Tristan and Dion) to “I don’t know why we drafted another power forward, but hey, he’s explosive, dynamic offensively, and can stretch the floor”. Presently though, we are watching each of these guys massively regress. Why?
Were the sustained flashes of potential from the past two seasons a mirage? I don’t think so.
Is it implementing a new coach’s system? As described briefly about Philly, lots of squads have new coaches, and most are not floundering as dramatically as Cleveland. Is it Coach Brown? I really hope not, because that deal is sealed. After several years of watching Coach Scott led teams appear to lack an offense, this is worse than ever, primarily because Kyrie isn’t acting superhuman. Very few of the players understand what to do or where to go when they don’t have the ball. The team remains poorly versed in making the extra pass, and at practicing a shot diet light on long twos. Have you seen this article from Ian Levy? Based on shot location, and expected points per shot from each place on the floor, the Cavs quantitatively grade out as the team with the NBA’s worst shot selection. How much of this is the fault of the players, and how much is a crisis of poor development and teaching? As we speak, for the second consecutive week, the team resides amidst a three day break, hopefully instituting an offensive scheme. Ideally the break involves much discussion, and understanding, of what all five guys need to do on offense, including a crash course in “Finding Your Team the Right Shot 101”.
That is, unless the problem is that several of them dislike each other, or the coaches. In that case, perhaps Dan Gilbert brought in a contingent of relationship counselors yesterday. Let the guys hug it out for a few days. What can’t a hug help, right?
Anyways, I don’t know the answer. Watching Kyrie, Dion and Tristan not improve from their prior seasons, while Anthony Bennett mildly struggles with conditioning, would have been a disappointing development, jeopardizing the legitimacy of the rebuild. Watching each member of that familiar trio worsen, while Anthony Bennett resembles waiver wire fodder, with Dion and Tristan approaching their primes, is a complete disaster that leaves this franchise in a massive bind.
In the ideal scenario from one month ago, the Cavs follow their 42 win playoff berth by offering Kyrie a 5-year max extension. With Tristan continuing his strong progress, the team offers him a reasonable extension, which he accepts, securing his future from injury without the Wine & Gold exposing a core player to restricted free agency. With those moves, Summer 2014 is also the time for a free agent strike, with the new extensions starting in 2015 – 2016. Forget Lebron, but find a strong free agent who wants to play with Kyrie, on a budding playoff team. That isn’t happening though, for a 28 win team. And trades? With the current situation, almost no one has trade value equal to what their worth should be if Cleveland could just figure out how to appropriately develop further on the skills they have shown in the past. Almost everyone on this team is at all time lows for trade value, and that will not fix itself without greatly improved play…at which point, there could be no need for a trade. If the issue is mainly one of player compatibility, perhaps the team needs to sell low on a guy or two. Obviously, that is not a good outcome either.
Time to wrap this up. This week, there are three games: Miami in Cleveland, and the Cavs with three-days of prep time; then a trip to Boston to play the 5-win Celtics; finally, a home affair against Chicago, sans Derrick Rose (sad face), on the final night of the Bulls’ six game “circus road trip”. All of those are games that an up and coming, soon to be contending, team should fair reasonably well in. If the Cavs do not, an adjustment to rebuilding expectations may be in order.
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The problem starts, and almost ends with Irving’s play. Our “superstar” went from 0.1 offensive WS/48 the previous two seasons to 0.05. People are going to blame this on Brown, because the answer to things they can’t explain always seems to be the coaches’ fault, but there’s not a damn thing Brown can do about Kyrie playing so awful right now. A lot of offensive problems are solved if/when Irving finds that 50 points of TS% that he lost.
I think it will be borne out that Mike Brown is the main reason for the Cavs’ difficulties. He is not a teacher. Not sure Scott was either, but Scott commanded respect. I think fans would see a different team if a coach with Brad Stevens-like qualities was at the helm.
Gilbert is going to have to eat Brown’s contract at some point, of that i am certain. Gilbert is not going to allow whatever shred of fan goodwill is left to vanish as Brown stays.
@scotch
With the right trade, they can get a lot of tax relief and an asset for him. He’s an expiring deal that they don’t plan to resign, and with Rose out for the remainder of the season, I think it’s almost a lock that Deng gets traded.
Who thinks the Bulls are ready to give up Deng for anything? If they had wanted to trade him, they would have taken an offer over the last couple years. They actively shopped him. He’s not going anywhere.
Talking about conventional wisdom and draft picks:
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/64262/re-ranking-the-2012-draft
Can’t really imagine Waiters has much trade value at all right now. Maybe a lottery protected draft pick at best right now…
@Cory Hughey
Miami might be due for a loss, but it’s a lot to put on a young team that hasn’t gelled well to try to raise the stakes that high on this week and in particular what will likely be a “weird” game due to the crowd and all the “LeBron 2014” talk.
@everyone else
I agree the team can’t afford a misstep like a panic trade. But it is worth exploring if there’s a batch of assets that can secure a player like Luol Deng in exchange for cap relief for example, etc.
The biggest change from last year to this year is Mike Brown. At best, he could be defensive coordinator or something. The Cavs are not going to improve under him.
Turner has upped his field goal percentage because Philly plays at such a fast pace, and he’s getting more opportunities in transition. They’ve way upped his usage too, and he’s become the primary scoring option. For a good comparison to Turner, look at Larry Hughes in Washington in 04-05. He had a similarly raised field goal percentage and across the board numbers, but he still couldn’t hit threes, despite taking way too many of them (much like Turner). Part of this is, admittedly, by design. http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/11/4/5044364/philadelphia-76ers-brett-brown-michael-carter-williams “More threes means a faster game and increased variance” variance to overcome Philly’s lack… Read more »
Completely agree with Underdog. The start has been disheartening, but a panic trade isn’t the answer either. Trading Waiters for a quarter on the dollar isn’t going to help this team longterm. Turner isn’t exactly Cedric Ceballos. He needs the ball in his hands to be successful. I wouldn’t be against that trade though. Turner has already gone through his growing pains, discovered humility and isn’t undersized. Dion could play for the city he loves and have all the Marco Polo Martell pool parties his heart desires. Better offball movement from Kyrie and Dion has been needed since their union… Read more »
“Bynum, Delly, and Karasev are the only not terrible moves, and the last one is an incomplete.”
Umm.. ALL the moves are an incomplete. It’s been 14 freaking games Nate. My God.
You can’t shop Kyrie Irving unless it’s for something like Utah’s first round pick (unprotected). Period.
You don’t trade a young superstar like that.
Luol Deng is a really interesting trading idea. Maybe trade TT for him to try to get AB more time at the 4, and to get a veteran 3.
Grover you forgot to mention terrible use of timeouts’s and poor chemistry.
I would be shopping KI. He’s the only piece we have except maybe Andywith any value and I think that he is a major part of the chemistry problem. Would Utah trade their 1st pick and Heyward for KI and Andy. I’d do that today but preferably in January to maximize the value of the pick.
@Ross-
We’re not writing off Mike Brown because of 14 games. That would be absurd.
We’re writing off Mike Brown because his entire coaching career has been littered with what we’re seeing. Stagnant offenses. Inconsistent rotations. Poor substitution strategies. Non-existent in-game management. No ability to develop young players.
The difference is he doesn’t have a Lebron or Kobe to bail him out anymore. He is being exposed for what he is: a solid defensive tactitian that can’t manage a team in its entirety.
1)Have the core play as much as they can together to see if they can figure it out. (Kyrie, Dion, TT)
2)Insist on ball movement and defensive intensity.
3)Give some other coach total control of the offense.
4)See what you got at the trade deadline, but don’t make any desperate move until year end.
And oh yeah, Turner’s numbers have been plummeting of late.
Last week (4 games): 21.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.3 SPG
Year to date: 21.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.0 SPG
Shaking my head…
Ridiculous. Some of you guys are just haters and trolls masquerading as intelligent bloggers so you can say inflammatory things. We are 14 games into an 82 game season. Give me a freaking break. We aren’t even a fifth into this season yet. I guess you love or hate Mike Brown, but some of these comments are absurd. We’re writing off Mike Brown because of 14 games? He’s had a training camp and 14 games to institute a new system into a team that A) is one of the youngest in the NBA, B) has never committed to playing defense… Read more »
Nice summary, Nate. Sadly thought….I couldn’t even get excited about a roster blow up and a #4 pick that nets Jabari Parker. Because at the end of all that….we’re still going to be coached by Mike Brown. Gilbert basically married himself to Brown. He said all the glowing things, all the apologies, and clearly made a statement by not even considering anyone else in the process. We’re going to be suffering through five years of Mike Brown. No question. After everything Gilbert said and did, and as bullheaded of a man he is, he’d rather burn down the Q than… Read more »
It is a sad testament that almost every move this off-season has been an unmitigated disaster: Mike Brown, Bennett, Jack, Clark. Bynum, Delly, and Karasev are the only not terrible moves, and the last one is an incomplete. Letting Livingston walk, losing Elliott Williams, the complete and total mis-handling of the Casspi situation: those moves don’t help either, but while I’d like to see them have done those things, they are are fairly minor sins. I wonder if part of the problem is that the Cavs do not have the right mix of veterans. Certainly one less Carrick Felix and… Read more »
Evan Turner for Dion… I think it could work. Especially if we use his point forward ability… he does that, right?
That would probably mean Delly gets a permanent starting spot and Jack, Miles, Gee, Clark and AV are off the bench first. I kinda like it.
Nice article. Things are truly a mess with this team. It’s painful to watch this team. Dion and others standing in place for several seconds, watching the game, seemingly detached from the offense. Jarrett Jack ignoring Kyrie and throwing up long jumpers. No inside presence unless Bynum is on the floor. Even the evident better play of CJ is a mirage. My issues with CJ, as a player, is that he’s a bit likel Michale Beasley – he has confidence that far exceeds his ability to hit long jumpers. He’s shooting better this year, but his shot selection isn’t great.… Read more »
Well we’ve seen Kyrie freeze out Dion before so there is something there. It sucks, if Kyrie isn’t going to find the open man trade HIM, he’s the one that puts in the least effort it seems like. Seriously this sucks, we should not be at a 28% win percentage, the bobcats hired a rookie coach from some college and they are at .500. This is just ridiculous. Earl Clark what the hell does he even do? Why is Mathew Delevadova our best player right now? What he needs to do is trot out Delevadova, Jack, Gee, Sims and Varejao… Read more »
This is really as sad article. It’s not about the losing as much as why/how is it that we aren’t developing our players and how they seem unable to play/adjust to each other. When the fans start losing hope (which is starting to happen it seems), then the sadnes and then anger – calling for MB’s job or to trade ____ will kick in. Slumps are just something a player can work through, but chemestry, scheme, and understanding issues are the worst kind of issues to have. I still think TT is solid and that a lot of his numbers… Read more »
There is a piece on ESPN’s rumor mill that suggests the Sixers might want to send up Evan Turner for Dion? I don’t know about you guys, but that sounds like a great deal for us. A 3 that is finally finding his way in the league and fills a huge need on the Cavs in exchange for a 2 that is struggling but has enough talent to entice interest. Yes please
Is it possible that some of the team’s energy problems are due to the lack of an offensive system? I think most players enjoy playing offense more than they enjoy playing defense (certainly, players like Waiters certainly seem to). If Mike Brown wants them to buy in on defense, he at least needs to have a system in place that allows them to open up and have fun on offense.
Really great article Kevin. The trade-value problem seems soooo familiar. How many times has a cleveland franchise failed to develop a talented young player, only to trade him to a team where he finds his legs and produces? It will be interesting to see if Tristan is one of the guys that leaves, and if that he ends up becoming a major producer because MB has now given him a better idea of how to play defense, and another team’s offense will find him opportunities that he doesn’t get here. In a well run offense he gets 15 a night… Read more »
OUCH that hurts but ten the truth often does
Beyond his inability to field an offense, the biggest problem with Mike Brown has always been that he wants to be the players’ friend and therefore renders himself incapable of being their leader. He doesn’t inspire fear, confidence or inspiration the way that even mid-level coaches always do. Byron wasn’t the answer but what he had that MB lacks is the players’ respect. Every time someone says that “Mike Brown is one of the true good guys in this league,” I cringe and think of Lenny Wilkens — excellent human being, but no doormat. That is what it means to… Read more »
That’s it in a nut shell.
All we can hope for at this point is progress. Something needs to be done if the regress continues. Nobody seems to know what, though. I just know that I don’t want to tank again.
Insightful post, Kevin. Sums up and explains our seemingly unexplainable predicament well.