LeBron James’ MVP qualifications
2010-04-07
To make sure we have all of this on the record, let’s take a look LeBron’s case for the 09-10 MVP. This seems like as good a time as any to do this; the Cavs have clinched the league’s best record, and LeBron will probably be playing limited minutes for the rest of the year. However, I will add the disclaimer that this is assuming nothing crazy happens. By “crazy,” I mean something like Kobe hitting a game-winner in every remaining game, Dwight Howard scoring 84 points, LeBron getting injured, or Kevin Durant winning the Masters.
Let’s break it down:
Conventional Statistics:
LeBron’s triple crown statistics are currently 29.7/7.3/8.6.
-He will likely lose a close scoring race to Durant, who has something to play for over the final few games of the season.
-He will shatter the record for APG by a forward. Durant’s season high for assists is eight, and his career high is nine. LeBron is averaging 8.6 assists.
-He is shooting over 50% from the field.
-He is second only to Durant and Gerald Wallace in terms of rebounds per game for small forwards.
Team Success:
The Cavs are 61-17, and have already clinched the best record in the league. This has happened despite LeBron being the only All-Star on the roster. The Cavs have been riddled by injuries all season, but never took their foot off the gas pedal. They are tied with the Magic for the best point differential in the league. They also had to integrate Antawn Jamison after a major mid-season trade.
Advanced Statistics:
-LeBron’s 31.37 PER absolutely destroys the rest of the league, and is one of the best PER marks of all time.
-He is one of six players to ever average more than 29.5 points per game with a TS% over 60%.
-Only Chris Paul, Carlos Arroyo, Luke Ridnour, Jose Calderon, and Mike Bibby have a higher assist ratio and lower turnover ratio than LeBron does.
-The gap in EWA between LeBron and the #2 player is the size of the gap between the #2 player and the #8 player.
Defense:
This one is a little mixed. I believe LeBron’s defense took a step back this season, but he’s still a wonderful defender.
The Cavs are a top-10 team in defensive efficiency once again, and LeBron played the most minutes.
LeBron’s defensive +/- isn’t where it was last season, but that’s mostly due to the Hickson effect. Hickson improved his defense tremendously in the second half of the season, but his ineptitude early on killed LeBron’s +/- on defense. Last season, LeBron’s defensive +/- looked phenomenal because he rarely played with Hickson. This year, his defensive +/- looks pedestrian because they played together so much. Every lineup LeBron played in that didn’t include Hickson was great defensively.
-LeBron doesn’t go 100% on defense for much of the game, and his defensive fundamentals are suspect at times. However, he’s proven capable of locking down superstars in crunch-time, he doesn’t commit fouls, and his chase-down blocks are perhaps the most spectacular defensive plays in the league.
Crunch-Time Performance:
The Cavs are 5th in the league in fourth-quarter margin, and absolutely unparalleled in crunch time. LeBron averages 66.1 points and 8.3 assists per 48 minutes of crunch time, with an eFG% of 55%, a foul rate of 15.1%, and an 80% mark from the line. The Cavs outscore their opponents by 37 points per 48 minutes of crunch time.
As someone who watched every Cavs game, I can tell you those aren’t just empty numbers. The Cavs would often keep the game close for the first 3.5 quarters, then pull away as LeBron took over the game in the final 5-7 minutes. This happened all the time. At some point, it stopped being suspenseful. Kobe’s game-winners were amazing, and I don’t want to take anything away from them. But LeBron was money when the game was on the line all season. He just didn’t quite have that same flair for the dramatic.
Intangibles:
LeBron is a leader of the team, all of his teammates seem to love him, and he’s been proactive in leading the team. I don’t think there’s any player who has as much influence on his team as LeBron does. In the regular season, it’s hard to say that that influence has been anything but positive.
LeBron probably won’t be the unanimous MVP choice because of one or two votes that will go to Howard, Bryant, or Durant from writers in their markets. But if any player ever deserved the honor of a unanimous MVP choice, it’s LeBron. He was off-the-charts amazing when he won his first MVP last year. This year, he’s been better. That should be recognized.
@Windhorst: “Fair”, “Ethical”? LMAO. Who cares about other teams chances? Would any of those teams sit/play guys to help us?
I will admit that Kobe has made a career of hitting last second shots. If you have to choose between Kobe and LBJ to take the last second shot, then Kobe edges out LeBron. But not by much. LeBron has hit some big last second shots. (Game 2 vs. the Magic in the Conference finals last year.) But lets look at it from another angle. As dominant as the Lakers have been over the course of Kobe’s career, why have they been in the position so often to need a last second shot? I personally prefer a player and a… Read more »
@Excl – what’s funny is that LeBron has been no slouch on game winners either. He’s hit as many playoff game winners as Kobe in the last 4 years.
Kobe fans cling to last second shots and Championship stats because it’s basically the only thing they have left to cling to in a “who’s better” debate. They must think Robert Horry is a god among men.
Sure, if you have to pick one guy for “the last shot of the game” … you can have Kobe. I’ll take Lebron for the other 47:58, and that last shot should pull you within 10.
@Issac – That’s the KOBE SIGNAL!
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/GTAS-comics-MVP-couch-rage?urn=nba,149327
How about couple of blocks, steals lebron made when game was on the line as “GAME WINNERS”.
I have this image of a sort of Kobe themed Thunderbird 5 constantly circling the earth listening for anti-kobe talk, and sending in morons like Laker Dan here to post a few incoherent comments.
We need to attract more Kobe fans like Dan to this blog. Then we could really watch some fireworks.
Kobe is clutch – except when he’s not clutch – which everyone conveniently erases from their memories.
The most clutch “chucker” of all time.
Any word yet on James playing in the WNBA this summer?
Kobe’s a chucker. I don’t even think he’s the best player on the Lakers.
kobe fans need to stop already lebron is clearly better
Does Lebron top his 37.4 playoff PER from last year?
The point with LeBron is that he doesn’t have to hit game winners because the game is usually already won. Here’s what I want from John Krolik: can you compute heat checks and give up jumpers? I want to know LeBron’s percentages on heat checks (pull-up 3s with plenty of time on the shot clock, or a man in his face). I also want to know LeBron’s percentages on give-up jumpers (Jumpers where LeBron has held the ball for 5 or more seconds and just pulls up because he’s wasted the shot clock). The 3-8 bad shots per game are… Read more »
Just saw “More Than a Game” last night, and beyond the obvious tribute to his virtues as a teammate (which I think are unmatched in this league) it was surreal to see him dominate high school opponents in much the same way that he dominates the world’s best now. Of course he is smarter and more efficient now but, damn, it’s like he is in an entirely different class of being, from another planet or something. Alas, he won’t be a unanimous MVP but that is still to come, I think. This young man is not done growing as a… Read more »
Kobe fans are trying to still annoint their guy as the best ever even though right now Lebron is clearly an all around better player and has done so much with very little (at least to this year). If Lebron was on the Lakers they would have won the title the last 3 years and been unstoppable. Kobe on the Cavs would have been decent but leading to Kobe shooting all the time and leaving his teammates to stand and watch all game. I do agree Kobe is a great player but Lebron is just all around better. Last second… Read more »
ps: He’s been doing this for years now, too, only with a worse team they were usually down 7-10 to start the fourth, so he couldn’t do it all the time
Last weekend I got in an argument with my friend, who’s a Kobe fan, about who’s better at winning games, and of course his argument was “how many game-winning shots does Lebron have this year?” I tried to explain to him how ridiculously dominant Lebron was when his team needs a win, and he simply didn’t believe me. It was actually during last Friday’s Atlanta game, and in the first half when it was relatively tied the whole way (as i remember), I said that if it’s still close in the 4th Lebron will come in, the Hawks will stop… Read more »
My favorite LeBron “game winner” was in Indiana this year when he drained that three from well behind the line. He even did a one-footed twirl afterward then strutted back to the bench with 2 minutes left on the clock. Incredible. The amazing thing this season, in my observation, is how quietly dominant LeBron has been. Last year it was like I was watching a revelation, full of suspense and fear that they would lose the game before LeBron’s heroics kicked in. This year, when games were tight or when the team was behind, I had no fear. You just… Read more »
Considering I’ve watched every game this season you hit the nail on the head. LeBron hit plenty of “game winners”, it’s just that they were with 3 minutes left on the way to putting the opposing team away by 7 or 8 instead of having it be a one possession game at the buzzer.
“He just didn’t quite have that same flair for the dramatic.”
except for the occasional pujit with the game on the line lol