Kevin’s Big Board, #31 – 40 (or, the tier where the Cavs pick their 2nd rounders)
2013-06-23
It’s draft week! After months of guessing and waiting, the climax is here! The next pieces of this Cavalier puzzle are en route. The possibilities seem endless, with rumors galore. Finally today, I reach the tier of interesting players for the Cavs with their second round picks. Let’s sort thru, before I make my officially sanctioned recommendations for picks #31 and #33 (non-trade edition).
#40 – Jackie Carmichael, Illinois State, PF, Senior – Another high intensity power forward racking up rebounds, steals and blocks, this senior separates himself from Roberson and Kazemi with his size (6′ – 9″ in shoes, 241 pounds).
#39 – Livio Jean Charles, ASVEL (French ProA), SF / PF, Age 19 – The posts about players #41 to 60 were full of 22, 23, and 24 year olds; players with fairly established track records and relatively close to their primes. Today, we start delving into the guys that are more unformed projections. This teenaged native of French Guiana is big (6’ – 9” in shoes, 7’ – 2.5” wingspan), with a tireless motor. At the recent Nike Hoop Summit, he blistered the high schoolers on the USA Select team, tallying 27 points and 13 rebounds in a win for the international squad. Playing 14 minutes per game in France’s top league, he averaged about 3 points and 3 rebounds a game (PER = 13.5). A prospect similar in style to Kazemi and Roberson, LJC is younger, longer, and easier to project development onto; he made 6 of 14 from three this year. Just signing a contract extension in France through 2015 – 2016, he offers an opportunity to stash until around his 24th birthday.
#38 – Isaiah Canaan, Murray State, PG, Senior – Reports say that Canaan looks strong in workouts; a great jump shooter, according to Synergy Sports (via draftexpress) he fired nearly ten per game this year and scored a tidy 1.10 points per possession. He is a sub-six footer, but packs 200 pounds of strength onto that frame, while maintaining acceptable athleticism. Downsides include poor passing for a 6-footer; of point guards that may be drafted, his assist to turnover ratio ranks last. Also an average finisher at the rim, this is particularly an issue considering he faced off against only the NCAA’s 215th and 228th toughest schedules over the last two years. A sampling of his few games against strong defenses in recent seasons:
- In back-to-back games against Colorado and St. Johns this past November, he struggled to 46% true shooting with two-game totals of 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 turnovers.
- Last season against Memphis, it was 15 points on 45% true shooting.
- In his two NCAA tourney games in 2012, he averaged 15.5 points on 42% true shooting, with more turnovers than assists.
A short, shoot-first point guard with poor performance against higher level defenses? I can’t sneak him into the first round.
#37 – Jeff Withey, Kansas, C, Senior – For a few reasons, I am not particularly high on Withey. He is already 23, and weighs a paltry 222 lbs. Of 16 centers in the draftexpress top 100, for pace-adjusted rebounding, he ranked third to last. With agility testing in the bottom ten of the entire draft class, there are questions about his ability to defend away from the basket. On the bright side, he blocks shots at an obscene rate and anchored a top NCAA defense. In the NBA though, his lack of bulk, toughness and athleticism seem likely to be exploited.
#36 – Ricky Ledo, Providence (?), SG, Freshman (?) – Ledo turns 21 in September and his track record above high school / AAU is…nothing. Apparently flourishing in workouts, following top-ten ranking in his high school class, I’ll put him here. I have no idea though.
#35 – Archie Goodwin, Kentucky, SG, Freshman – I paired Ledo with Goodwin for a reason. They were the 11th and 12th ranked players in the their high school class, but Ledo is 23 months older* than Goodwin. How does this happen? First, Ledo is a very old freshman. Second, like MKG last year, Goodwin sits borderline between which class he should be in. His efficiency wasn’t great this year, but what if someone told you that a high school senior was starting at UK and leading the Wildcats in scoring? The team drafting Goodwin will need patience, and he’s definitely a non-refined question mark, but his size (6’ 4”, 6’ 9” wingspan), athleticism and age / skill level make him worth the risk at this point in the draft.
#34 – Pierre Jackson, Baylor, PG, Senior – Young for a senior, not turning 22 until August, this year Jackson: averaged 20 points with 7 assists; posted a 115 offensive rating with 30 usage against the NCAA’s 50th best schedule, one of the more intriguing marks in the class; and guided his team with the fifth-highest Pure Point Rating in the DX top 100. Performing spectacularly in guiding Baylor to the NIT championship, he averaged 20 points on 63% true shooting, with 11 assists per game versus only 2.6 turnovers; Baylor won those five games by a total of 85 points. Basically he’s fast, possesses an accurate shot and a tight handle; his offensive acumen supercedes his defensive inabilities (5’ 9” height, periodic lack of effort) enough to make him a viable NBA point guard.
#33 – Nate Wolters, South Dakota State, PG, Senior – With good size, standing 6′ – 3.5″, and strong point-guarding skills, averaging 22 points with nearly 6 assists and only 2.3 turnovers, this 22-year old looks like a viable NBA player. And that’s all I have to say about that.
#32 – Raul Neto, Lagun Aro Gipuzkoa (Spanish ACB), PG, Age 21 – Turning 21 on the day of his team’s final game of the season, Raul Neto lead his Spanish ACB squad in minutes played. Blending his 6’ – 2” height, with solid speed (sprint time and agility similar to Michael Snaer, Phil Pressey, Isaiah Canaan), the young Brazilian posted respectable 13.6 PER behind 46 / 39 / 79 shooting and 1.6:1 assist to turnover ratio. Combining that with defense that draftexpress described as, “extremely aggressive…putting excellent pressure on the ball and getting right up in his opponent fearlessly. He has quick feet and good hands…”. The combination of early reps against high level competition; his commitment to defense; size; and athleticism make for an enticing draft & stash.
#31 – Marko Todorovic, Barcelona (Spanish ACB), C, Age 21 – The more I looked at Todorovic, the harder it was to not like him. Playing for Barcelona, a finalist in the Spanish ACB and semi-finalist in the Euroleague, he experienced the absolute upper echelon of international competition despite not turning 21 until April. As a low-minute sub, in both league’s he posted PER of 18. As the season concluded, he appeared to be improving; in 39 minutes in the ACB Finals series, he provided 11 points on 62% true shooting, with 10 rebounds, 5 blocks, 5 fouls and 2 turnovers. In 22 minutes at the final four of the Euroleague, the line was: 22 minutes, 13 points on near perfect shooting (3 of 3 from field and 7 of 8 from the line), 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 1 turnover and 2 fouls. Pretty solid for a youngster playing in a championship series. Finally, in 2011 – 2012, playing most of the season as a 19-year old, he received MVP honors in the Spanish third division, averaging 16 points and 8 boards on 55% true shooting in 26 minutes per game. Lauded as mobile, and able to play inside and out, I think he could show up in the NBA in five years as a great addition to an already solid team.
Wrapping it up: And here we are! Someone call Chris Grant! Time for my thoughts on who the Cavs need to look at with #31 and #33! And the answer is…
Two of the four of Alex Abrines, Livio Jean-Charles, Raul Neto or Marko Todorovic. I gave Abrines a hard time last week, but ultimately, he’s an occasionally stellar youngster playing in the highest levels of international basketball. Looking a bit deeper, he won MVP of the 2011 U18 Euro Championship, following the path of top-five picks Enes Kanter and Jonas Valanciunas. In the far fetched scenario where the Cavs use these picks, forming a small battalion of stashed players in Europe could reap serious longterm benefits. Obviously having no idea what trades have been agreed to, I prefer the double Euro-stash with #31 and #33.
Anyways, the speculation is almost over. Three more days and we will have big, exciting news to talk about.
*Ledo’s birthday is different at draftexpress and espn: September 1992 at DX, January 1993 at ESPN.
I definitely like the idea Griffin to Cavs! What I meant in my comment, though, is that in your example we get Griffin by trading the #1 pick. Given that, even in your example, we would not end up with both Len and Griffin. We would just have Griffin. Unless I am reading it wrong.
I said it was a stretch. Every asset we have would have to be moved just right. And even then it probably wouldn’t work. It just sounded cool to hear “Griffin to Cavilers”.
How do we end up with both Len and Griffin, if we trade the #1 pick to get Griffin?
I love the idea of a veteran SF, although I prefer Pierce over Marion. I also think Len helps us make the playoffs this year better than Noel would. Len comes back from his injury sooner than Noel and his offense is better. If we don’t bring in a veteran SF, I’d like to see the Cavs find a way to draft Len and Porter/Caldwell-Pope. I was at work talking about the Cavs, and someone mentioned a three team trade they would like to see with the Clippers and Lakers. It went like this: Clippers get: Dwight Howard (in a… Read more »
@Kj, as you requested…
“Josh says:
June 6, 2013 at 6:22 am
In case anyone was getting [worried] as a result of KJ’s claim that the 16 oldest teams all made the playoffs this year, it is wildly false.
Houston, OKC and Denver were all in the bottom five of the NBA in average age. GS seems to be in the bottom 10. I didn’t bother looking any more after that.
We don’t need to get older we need to get more talented.”
I’ve wanted a veteran rental SF since January. This team needs veterans who can lead, not just teach the kids where to buy the best weed in LA (Walton). I would be happy with Marion or Pierce and they both have their advantages. Marion’s probably the better defender at this point, and Pierce could give you more scoring-wise. Either way, both would be a drastic improvement over Gee. It’s not about having five starters with 20 PERs. It’s about not giving significant playing time to guys with a PER under 15. I’ve bounced around between Noel and Len. I’ve thought… Read more »
Btw, some said I was crazy to compare Bebe Noguierra to Noel. Well, read this: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/page/PerDiem-130624/ranking-prospects-warp
He is #6 OVERALL.
Few thoughts: I counted about 52 ish useful players that have been drafted in the 2nd round since 2003. So on average you could say there will be around 5 useful players drafted in the 2nd round. PLUS, our 2 picks are at the top of the 2nd round. The Paul Pierce scenario reminds me of the Baron Davis year. Everyone was saying he would be a cancer, but he ended up having a pretty nice second half of the season. A Cody Zeller/Nerlens Noel combo looks so intriguing on paper. Their skills would complement eachother very well. If we… Read more »
Furthermore, this seems to buttress my contention: http://www.sbnation.com/2013/3/21/4130932/nba-age-lakers-knicks-rockets-thunder
Btw, in the “renting a SF for a year” sweepstakes, give me Pierce over Deng, anytime.
I was using data from iirc, hoopshype that showed the 16 teams who made the playoffs where the 16 oldest teams. I did not see any rebuttal to that. Please re-post.
Kj,
why do you continue to perpetuate that myth? you were proven wrong with actual data to back it up on another thread and yet you still try to pass it off as truth. the number one factor in being a playoff team is not age, it’s talent. the cavs need to continue to add talented players and develop the talented players they have. they don’t need to get add veterans for the sake of being older.
Kj,
That’s what I want to know about Pierce. Would he come to Cleveland to collect a paycheck and then retire or would he be here to earn the next contract? He brings good value if he wants to play and adds the kind of heart Rivers’ Celtic’s were known for. Ray Allen taught that kind of determination to the rest of the Heat in game 6 this year. Would Pierce do the same for the Cavs? If not, draft and stash looks good. In reality probably good options either way, courtesy of Grant’s long meticulous planning.
I find it puzzling that many of you question the value of a championship-winning player on a young team. As I pointed out sometime ago, the NUMBER ONE factor is figuring out what a playoff team is by looking at their average age! We need to get OLDER! Furthermore, to believe that Pierce in a contract year, surrounded by good talent would be “just collecting a paycheck” is borderline ludicrous!
Kevin, Thanks for bringing up Hanga. He was one of the players that the Spurs considered bringing over this past year. I wanted the Cavs to draft him also. Someone made a comment that implied that the Spurs were good at stashing while the Cavs haven’t been. The truth is that, so far, they are like a player who decides to be the best FT shooter in the league and so starts shooting 100 FT’s a day to perfect his craft. All the while the current FT% leader continues to do his usual 1000 FT’s per day to stay on… Read more »
“You can NEVER have too many bigs on the roster.”
The Milwaukee Bucks prove your emphatic statement to be false.
Kevin I don’t disagree with you. I’m not even sure what the point behind my argument was. In summary, I have no issues trading our second rounders. I’d like Cleveland to do everything they can to move back into the top 10. If we could pull off #1, #13, and #19, I’d be very excited, because we’d have the ammo to do that. One player I really hope falls and ends up in a Cavaliers uniform is Cody Zeller. I know there are a lot of people who don’t think he’s strong enough to be good in the NBA, but… Read more »
The choice for Pierce will come to: does he want to chase a ring, or does he want to collect a paycheck? If he wants a paycheck he’ll be fine with a trade to the Cavs, if he wants a ring, he’ll ask Boston to cut him. Given what he’s meant to the organization, I imagine they will oblige his wishes. There’s also a third possibility: Boston contends this year. They cut Pierce, he comes back at a lower rate, and they use the savings to surround Garnett and him with some players to help. Anyway, it’s not as if… Read more »
I think better players than the ones listed will be available. (I guess Erick Green has moved up the draft boards enough so that he won’t be available at 31.) If we keep the two picks, one US player (from this deep draft) and a stash makes sense. There’s no reason to think that Paul Pierce, after the teams he’s played on, will want to do anything more than collect a paycheck in Cleveland. He’d poison what we’re trying to do. Plus, if he doesn’t have something to play for he’ll be fading fast from here on out. No way… Read more »
@Kevin I guess my issue is that Grant does not seem to have the personality make-up or maybe just the desire to stash well. I hope he gets your memo about these guys because I’m thinking the Cavs pull a repeat of last year and go 3-for-1. I’d rather do that then throw away choices on Macvans or more trades for future 2nd rounders.
This draft is unique in the fact that it’s not top-heavy, but it’s very deep. The odds of finding quality bench players after the first round is better this year than in previous ones. With that in mind, maybe this isn’t the year for stashing. As far as bringing in a vet for a one year rental, would trading for Shawn Marion and the #13 pick make more sense than giving up 31 & 33 for Paul Pierce? Costs less, and shot better this season (although not from 3 pt range). Gordon has a point that with 2 or 3… Read more »
Regarding stashing, for me it all boils down to JAG’s first comment, allowing a franchise to build a minor league team of sorts. Utilizing the D-League or keeping a project as the 14th and 15th men only provide limited ability to do that (those things can still be done, but then the stashed players effectively double or triple the young prospects available to the team). Cody, I prefer the Marion rumors to the Pierce rumors, but I don’t think the team needs three more rookies next year. Someone mentioned Macvan below. After the 2011 draft, I said “there is no… Read more »
Kevin Those 5-10 non-first rounders per year are not per draft. Bonner, Lewis, and Blair did not see the court at all (Bonner might have gotten a minute of garbage time in one of the games). Ginobili was a Euro stash by arguably the best franchise in the NBA. He was not drafted to play in the NBA right away. Haslem has been solid for Miami. Andersen was solid as well. However, these guys are also playing for a “strange” team in the NBA – one who has three superstars (or at least paid like them), so they are forced… Read more »
Gordon, I guess we disagree. In my opinion, the 5+ useful non first rounders is per draft. Take a look (although accounting for nondrafted players can be difficult). My basic point was that from only two teams, I was able to list nine players with decent NBA careers that were not first round picks. And there was a reason I said the teams “rostered” those players. Once the finals are reached, most teams dial into a 7 or 8 man rotation, but each of the players I listed was helpful towards their team winning 60 games this season. Well, maybe… Read more »
I have no memory. D’oh.
I find Nate Wolters to be the most efficient player out of this group. It’s probably a name thing. Anyway, two keepers and two stashers out of this draft would be a fine if the Cavs stand pat. Ricky Ledo is going in the first round, though. I’ve read several reports that have the Cavs taking him at 31 if he doesn’t…
The most interesting thing about the first three posts from this series? You must have D.J. Stephens in the top 30.
Found this interesting… http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Just-By-the-Numbers-the-2013-Small-Forward-Crop-4277/
This has to be the strangest small forward class in many years.
Nate,
Regardless of where Ricky Ledo goes, I am fine with placing him 35th.
I had D.J. Stephens at #58. I wasn’t sure exactly what to make of him.
2nd rounders in the NBA are like 6th-7th rounders in the NFL. Rarely do they make a legitimate impact on the NBA roster.
I’m all for trading them away if we can get someone useful. Paul Pierce could be a great 1 year rental.
SA is good at stashing. The Cavs have Macvan. He should be over any year now, right? Let’s hope they flip these 2nd round picks. The Cavs need talent now. You stash when you are already loaded with talent.
DaveR, In 2011, my thoughts on Macvan were that he would never play in the NBA; those are not my thoughts on the four players referenced here. Gordon, Every year there are 5 – 10 non first rounders that make an impact in the NBA. We just watched a great NBA finals featuring teams rostering: Ginobli, Danny Green, Matt Bonner, Dejuan Blair, Mario Chalmers and Rashard Lewis. Chris Anderson, Udonis Haslem and Gary Neal were undrafted. With the 31st and 33rd picks, if a team is good at drafting, you should expect them to find good players there. Steve, I… Read more »
Kevin, I understand your thought process, and while admittedly you have a much greater level of knowledge about these European players than I do (excellent post by the way, I love the level of commitment you bring to these scouting reports), I’m going to have to disagree with you about what this team needs. Like all Cavs fans I’m excited about the future of this team, but the young players need some serious leadership. While I understand that Walton, Gibson, and Varejao might be excellent role models and teach the young Cavs the right attitudes, who is teaching Kyrie (and… Read more »
1) Turn #31 & 33 into Paul Pierce
(http://hoopshype.com/rumors/tag/cleveland_cavaliers)
2) Trade #19 for Thomas Robinson – he can be had for a mid-1st rounder, google it (can’t post the Yahoo link b/c of the comment monster, but it’s there)
3) Draft Noel #1
Steve,
Faced with a choice of one year of Pierce instead of stashing two players and signing a veteran free agent small forward (and probably saving $10 million next year), to me, it is an easy decision to draft the young Euro-based players.
Before anyone complains about stashing too many players, look at how many SA currently has stashed and how well they have done both as a winning team and with their talent mining via stashing. I’m thinking they have eight currently stashed. De Colo was one of 4 or 5 they considered bringing over this year. I would say that SA is proving that stashing is a numbers game. Players can’t be really stashed in the D-league, where anyone can sign them, or at the end of the bench, where they end up being lost in the numbers game of roster… Read more »
JAG,
Obviously, I agree.