2013 Draft Class Outliers
2013-06-11
A rare sighting of Stephen F. Austin's Taylor Smith.
Victor Oladipo and Nerlens Noel may be unicorns. I’ve been playing around with the season finder on sports-reference.com, after a long comments section discussion over their merits. They both had seasons last year that have never been equaled, at least not since the start of modern stat-keeping 1997.
First, Victor is the only player of significant minutes to average 59% from the field (actually .599), 44% from three, and 2 steals and 2 assists per game. This doesn’t even take into account the .6 blocks and the 6+ rebounds per game. At 28 minutes a game, that’s pretty impressive, and unbelievably unique. He’s a two way player like no other, at least in post-1997 college basketball history. Lest you think I’m completely in the tank for Oladipo (I am), let’s look at Nerlens Noel.
Noel is the only player since 1997 to average over 50% from the field (actually .590), 4 blocks per game, 2 steals per game, and 9 rebounds. Actually the steals and blocks by themselves are singularities. The only people to come close to this were all seniors from middling programs. UMass’s Tony Gaffney (2009), came close with 3.8 blocks. Anthony Davis is the only player with over 4 blocks per game who gets close to the steals number, and that is at 1.3 per game, well below Noel’s 2.1.
Otto Porter had some pretty unique numbers, right? Well, there are a handful of people who have duplicated them. There have been nine players since 1997 to shoot over 48% from the field, over 42% from 3, and get seven boards and 1.8 steals. The most significant? Ryan Bowen of Iowa in 1998, and Danny Granger in New Mexico in 2005. Granger tops the everyone in the group with his off the charts ’05 season. Per game: 18.8 points, 8.9 boards, 2.4 assists, 2.1 steals, 2.0 blocks, and shooting splits of .424/.433/.755. Though I fear Granger’s knee condition may irrevocably hobble him, I hope that he comes back as strong as ever. Supposedly, Wade had the same condition in 2007, and led the league in scoring after successful surgery.
Kelly Olynyk is one of 17 players with a TS% above .674, seven boards, one block, and one assist per game. Near the top of the curve, but not an outlier…
Mike Muscala is only one of four players to get 11+ rebounds, two assists, two blocks, and shoot 50% from the field in the last 15 years. In fact, he’s the only player to do it while while shooting over 75% at the line (.789). Out of this group, Jason Thompson is still in the league, and Marqus Blakely played briefly for Houston in 2011. All these players came from low-level conferences, which should tell you something about what those numbers mean.
There are a few more outliers in the draft. Stephen F. Austin’s Taylor Smith is the only player in 15 years to shoot a field goal percentage above 69% (.694), with nine-plus rebounds, and two-plus blocks per game. This doesn’t even mention his steal and 1.8 assists per game, or the fact that he shot 71% last year. Of course with a career .426 free throw percentage, there may be a reason he hasn’t gotten a lot of pre-draft buzz.
You want to talk outliers though, how about Memphis’s D.J. Stephens? Who as far as raw athletics, might be one of the biggest outliers in NBA history. Stephens has the highest vertical in the DraftExpress pre-draft database (which goes back to about 2000) at an astounding 46 inches. He’s also got the highest no step vertical at 40 inches. He has the fifth fastest 3/4 court sprint time at 2.98 seconds. The only guy who comes close to all three of these numbers is Nate Robinson who posted 43.5″/35.5″/2.96 seconds, but Robinson couldn’t come close to Stephens’ best feat: topping Shaq’s 12’5″ max vertical reach by a half an inch. Stephens really is a mythical beast: a 6’5″ power forward with shooting splits of .629/.361/.662. He only scores 7.6 points per game with 6.6 rebounds and 2.6 blocks in 23.6 minutes. He also has a 7′ wingspan. Fortunately, he has a fairly pedestrian hand width of 8.25″. What a weirdo.
What do these numbers mean? Probably nothing, but who knows. I’m sure in at least one of these cases, we’ll be looking back and wondering how we didn’t see these things coming. Some of these guys are one of a kind: mutants, gods, or aliens who’ve crept into mortal coils to become rare basketball creatures.
Jag – you’re making an argument that makes me want Porter as my 1B (behind Noel as a 1A.) Holy crap…I didn’t think anybody could make an argument that would cause someone to creep up on Noel so fast. LOL Well played.
Nate – were those players (Durant and company) 15-20lbs heavier than Porter when they came out…or is it that they’re 15-20lbs heavier now? Because I get the feeling that Porter will continue to add some weight once he gets some NBA training.
I want Portadipo #1.
Nate,
Porter is thin but still so young that I have no doubt will fill out to where he needs to be. He did a decent number on the bench presses so he is also reasonably strong.
I’m thinking he fits the current mold for success for a SF in the NBA as pointed out by Kevin’s metrics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=MgWJGiJJAwk I don’t quite see the same highlight film on Oladipo that you do, Underdog. I see a guy who is right hand dominant, but learning to go left, and just because he’s not getting assists in the highlight films doesn’t mean he’s not getting them. Also, his handle and passing abilities aren’t shabby. He still recorded 74 assists last year… As for not getting his own shot, he shot 60% off the dribble last year, which is excellent. One person sees a guy not getting his own shot, I see fantastic shot selection, a guy who plays team ball,… Read more »
Otto’s 15-20 pounds lighter than all those players, JAG. That would be my only argument. Also, to me he doesn’t pass the eye test. His offense near the basket revolves around floaters and hooks and weak shot attempts. Those two things combined make believe that he’ll be more easily taken out of his offense and effected by subtle defensive pushes than those other guys. I need to go watch some video of those other players to see how he compares. However, I am very impressed on Porter’s ability to change his shot mechanics. His freshman year mechanics were awful, and… Read more »
Kevin, Thanks for your research and article about athleticism not being a huge factor for an NBA s SF to succeed. I believe you did say length did. I looked up the pre-draft data on all the starting SF’s in the NBA and Porter would be one of the longest using height and wingspan as the primary criterion. Durant and Parsons are the only SF’s that start in the NBA who are about 6’10” or higher. George, Aminu and Prince are all within .25″ of being the same height as Porter. Of the six only Aminu and Durant have a… Read more »
LeBron is having a bad stretch of games, man, I knew he was the Worst of all Time. My buddy Kevin actually pointed out how he is shooting that goofy fade-away that he used to do in Cleveland, you know, as opposed to just running into the paint like he has all season. I really do like Oladipo, I really do. But in my opinion I think in a draft like this you just pick the best player available, which is clearly Porter, he has no major holes to his game and can contribute immediately. I’m still in the camp… Read more »
Fun stat of the night: LeBron posted a -32 +/-, Kawhi +29
Kevin: I’m wary of “special” freshman and sophomore seasons in the “one and done” era of college basketball, also, offensive and defensive ratings are a stat that is only 3 or 4 seasons old. But yes, Olynyk, Oladipo, and Porter are pretty special…
If Porter’s game fully translates to the pros, the Cavs sure could use him.
I probably don’t. But I probably will.
To make a long story short: Advanced statistics are only predictive when the athlete has the requisite physical traits to compete at the next level.
Underdog,
I disagree. I wrote a 15 part series on pre-draft measurements for Hardwood Paroxysm. Small forwards definitely had the lowest correlations between athleticism and production.
http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2012/12/13/kevins-summer-project-small-forward-offense/
http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2013/03/14/kevins-summer-project-part-10-small-forward-defense/
A short list of productive small forwards that did not test as great athletes includes: Kevin Durant, Luol Deng, Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy, Caron Butler, Chandler Parsons, Jared Dudley, Ryan Gomes, Kyle Korver…
You probably don’t want to argue with me about the impact of athleticism on NBA performance; I have a lot of information at my disposal.
I can see your enthusiasm for Porter . . . but pro athletes are better than college athletes and the stats don’t always carry forward. There are some Heisman trophy winners with incredible stats that don’t have a dominant physical trait that enables them to succeed at the pro level. If Porter could have the same productivity as a pro – I’d like to take him with the first pick. However, he’s the least athletic of the top five prospects. Occasionally, one has such a great feel for the game – it doesn’t matter. Larry Bird, and maybe Jason Kidd… Read more »
If I open it up to Juniors and increase the usage to 22, the list over the last four seasons increases to 7 (including Oladipo and Olynyk), but Porter is the only non-Junior to have played more than 22 minute
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=&year_max=&conf_id=&school_id=&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&class_is_jr=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=off_rtg&c1comp=gt&c1val=120&c2stat=usg_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=22&c3stat=ast_pct&c3comp=gt&c3val=15&c4stat=blk_pct&c4comp=gt&c4val=2.5&order_by=pts
How about…Freshman and Sophomores with orating above 120, usage above 20, blk% above 2.5 and assist percentage above 15.
Porter bests most of those pretty easily, and he is the only guy that played more than 330 minutes in the last four years that meets those thresholds.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=&year_max=&conf_id=&school_id=&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=off_rtg&c1comp=gt&c1val=120&c2stat=usg_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=20&c3stat=ast_pct&c3comp=gt&c3val=15&c4stat=blk_pct&c4comp=gt&c4val=2.5&order_by=pts
Also, I never would have guessed that Ryan Bowen played in ten different NBA seasons.
Of Porter’s group, only three shot more than 15 three-point attempts. Three of the nine shot 1 or 2 threes for the season. They were also all mid-major players besides Bowen, who was 2.5 years older than Porter.
I had to stick up for my guy Otto.
There’s no denying the special qualities that Oladipo possesses. He has rare explosion and defensive skills that guarantee him success in the NBA. Like many of you, much of what I have to go by is the draftexpress.com scouting reports and highlight films. When I watch the highlight film I largely see Oladipo exploding by people on the fast break and to his right. I admit – it is rather impressive. However, he’s a guard. There’s not a single highlight of him handling the ball in any capacity except for taking it directly to the basket. There’s not a single… Read more »
For the Granger talk: I think we need to stay away. Best case we’re getting a one year rental of a recovering player (abet a good one) who gives us a stop gap at the three and gives us the spacing and leadership we want, while giving a divison rival and a budding championship contender a cap space and an asset, and freeing up their potential chemistry issue at SF. Worst case same benefits to the Pacers, but we get a (moody) veteran that negatively impacts chemistry, and is never physically right but they feel his name and salary dictate… Read more »
Good stuff. I’m glad that the numbers coincidence, with the eye test when it comes to Dipo and Noel. I have been all in on Nerlens since I first saw him play at UK but I gotta say this information on Oladipo makes me feel much better about his ceiling. I think he’s a bit reluctant to look for his own offense at times but that might be a good thing with the Cavs, as he would be content to fill lanes, master the corner three, and defend like crazy. Ceiling wise its Nerlens and Oladipo in a group and… Read more »
@Cols714 – That is why I said that Noel would be better. But if another team had won the lottery then Oladipo would have been a legitimate option. That was my only point.
If D.J. Stephens can kiss the rim I’ll take him in the second round. Damn kid! He’ll be fun in D-League at least. I don’t know how he was playing PF though..
“Sources tell ESPN that the Cavs are now considering Indiana SG/SF Victor Oladipo at No. 1 overall.”
Not a big deal though, they are “considering” every top prospect with the apparent exception of Bennett.
I like Oladipo a lot. I like Noel more. I still think the Cavs need to make all the moves necessary to draft Noel, and then move back into the top 5 to grab a player like Oladipo. That would be outstanding.
eraulli
Oladipo is not worht the #1 pick.
Nice research. I really feel like Oladipo is being underrated. Not sure he’s worth taking with the #1 when Noel fills a need so much better, but I think those two will be by far the best players in this class.