Anthony Bennett: Comparisons to the Potential #1 Picks
2013-06-12
While not my most lazily researched, this probably qualifies as my most lazily written. Various media reports link the Cavs to half the NCAA with the first pick, but rarely does Anthony Bennett come up. During my comparison series on players last month, several commenters inquired about the UNLV freshman though. Due to surgery, he was unable to participate in athleticism drills at the combine, but here is his statistical profile:
Anthony Bennett – 6’ 7” in shoes, 239 lbs, 7’ 1” wingspan. 114 orating on 26 usage. Shooting percentanges = 53 / 38 / 70. Scoring Location Distribution = 59 / 19 / 22. Oreb% = 10.2. Dreb% = 21.8. ast% = 8.7. stl% = 1.4. blk% = 4.5. A:TO Ratio = 0.5. Age 20.4 at draft. NCAA’s 74th most difficult schedule.
A talented scorer, inside and out, his defensive numbers are marginal for a super-athletic forward against a middling schedule. He’s also old for a freshman, essentially the equivalent of a sophomore, nearly three months older than sophomore Otto Porter, and thirteen months older than Nerlens Noel.
He is unique though. A 6′ – 7″, 240 pounder that jumps out of the gym and strokes almost 40% of his threes? Pretty intriguing. In my pre-draft measurement series, I discussed how short power forwards didn’t produce worse, on average, than their taller, longer contemporaries. Almost exclusively though, these players were low to the ground bruisers, like Paul Millsap, Jason Maxiell, Dejaun Blair, and Craig Smith. None of these guys were hyper-athletic power forwards with a perimeter game, so as a comparison to Bennett, things fall apart quickly.
The two highly successful median height power forwards that helped keep the pre-draft measurement correlations low or negative were Kevin Love and Blake Griffin. Their numerical profiles look like:
Kevin Love – 6’ 9.5” in shoes, 6’ 11.25” wingspan, 255 lbs, 29.5” no-step, 11.17 agility, 3.22 sprint. Age 19.8 at draft. 127 orating on 27 usage. Shooting Percentages = 56 / 35 / 77. Scoring Location Distribution = 58 / 13 / 29. oreb% = 15.4. dreb% = 28.5. ast% = 14. 0. stl% = 1.4. blk% = 5.0. A:TO Ratio = 1.0.
Blake Griffin – 6′ 8.5″ in shoes, 6′ 11.25″ wingspan, 248 lbs, age 20.3 at draft. 118 orating on 32 usage. Shooting percentages = 65 / 38 / 59. Scoring Location Distribution = 75 / 1 / 24. oreb% = 14.2. dreb% = 32.2. stl% = 1.9. blk% = 3.6. ast% = 16.2. A:TO Ratio = 0.7.
Love had the perimeter shooting; Griffin the crazy athleticism. Despite Bennett combining these traits, these two players were eons ahead of him at a similar age; more efficient on offense and ridiculous rebounders. Anthony Bennett doesn’t stack up with this duo.
I’m running out of recent, productive, reasonably short forwards to compare him to. He is vaguely remiscinent of Thad Young’s production* as a freshman: 6′ – 7″ in shoes; scoring about one-quarter of their points from three; efficient on offense and marginal for the counting stats on defense. Young was thirty pounds lighter and a horrid rebounder, but he was also 15 months younger. Let’s set him as a preliminary marker for Bennett.
Next I moved onto small forwards that weigh more than 220 lbs, tested well athletically, and produced vaguely simlar to Bennett. This crew featured Harrison Barnes, Rudy Gay, Jeff Green, Shawne Williams and Richard Jefferson. I’ll go out on a limb and say at a similar age, he was more exciting as a prospect than Williams and Jefferson, roughly on par with Barnes and Green, and less enticing than Rudy Gay. See their numbers below and decide for yourself**.
I’m going to keep this article short…based on these comparisons of production, size, age and athleticism, I say he’s far lesser than Kevin Love and Blake Griffin. Behind Rudy Gay. Equivalent-ish to Thad Young, Jeff Green, and Harrison Barnes. Ahead of Richard Jefferson and Shawne Williams*** at a similar age. My official projection…ceiling of “borderline, but probably not an all-star”.
For a floor…something worse than that****. I’m so good at analytics.
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*Young – 6’ 7.5” in shoes, 210 lbs, 6’ 11.5” wingspan, 34.5” no-step, 11.06 agility, 3.19 sprint. 19 at draft time. 113 orating on 23 usage. Shooting Percentages = 48 / 42 / 74. Scoring Location Distribution = 62 / 26 / 12. Oreb% = 9.4 dreb% = 10.3. ast% = 12.9. stl% = 2.4. blk% = 1.5. A:TO Ratio = 0.9.
**Harrison Barnes – 6’ 8” in shoes, 228 lbs, 6’ 11.25” wingspan, 38” no-step, 10.93 agility, 3.16 sprint. Age 20.1. 108 orating on 26 usage. Shooting Percentages = 44 / 36 / 72. Scoring Location Distribution = 56 / 23 / 22. dreb% = 11. ast% = 7.2. stl% = 2.0. blk% = 1.1. A:TO Ratio = 0.6.
Jeff Green – 6’ 9.5” in shoes, 7’ 1.25” wingspan, 228 lbs, 33.5” no-step, 12 lane agility, 3.34 sprint, age 20.8 at draft. (20.8 season) 115 orating on 25 usage. Shooting Percentages = 51 / 38 / 78. Scoring Location Distribution = 61 / 20 / 19. dreb% = 16.3. ast% = 20.7. stl% = 1.6. blk% = 4.2. A:TO Ratio = 1.2.
Shawne Williams – 6’ 8.75” barefoot, 7’ 3” wingspan, 227 pounds, 32” no-step, 10.69 agility, 3.30 sprint. 20.3 at draft time. 108 orating on 23 usage. Shooting Percentages = 42 / 31 / 79. Scoring Location Distribution = 46 / 30 / 24. dreb% = 16.9. stl% = 2.7. blk% = 5.1. ast% = 12.6. A:TO Ratio = 0.8.
Richard Jefferson – 6’ 8.5” barefoot, 7’ 0” wingspan, 223 lbs, 33” no-step, 11.19 agility, 3.15 sprint. Age 21 at draft time. (age 20 season) 103 orating on 24 usage. Shooting Percentages = 50 / 43 / 71. Scoring Location Distribution = 58 / 22 / 20. dreb% = 13.6. stl% = 0.6. ast% = 23.7. blk% = 4.4. A:TO Ratio = 1.1.
Rudy Gay – 6’ 8” barefoot, 222 lbs, 7’ 3” wingspan, 33” no-step, 11.03 agility, 3.32 sprint. Age 19.8 at draft. 108 orating on 24 usage. 46 / 32/ 73. 63 / 17/ 20. dreb% = 13.7. ast% = 12.6. stl% = 3.2. blk% = 4.6.
***Williams has thrice been arrested for drug possession. Also, while playing for the Pacers, an acquaintenace was arrested for murder outside Williams’ home. I don’t include these details to besmirch him, but merely to provide some background for the “which of these names is not like the others?”
**** About Bennett’s defense, draftexpress.com said “He often looks like he’s only going half speed here, jogging the floor lackadaisically, relaxing in his stance whenever he can, and losing his focus easily.” So, he’ll need to work on that.
@Underdog You keep saying things like ‘eye test’ and ‘what I’ve seen’…… I have no idea what games you watched of Bennett. I watched his final two games and two games during the year around the time he started getting hype. I know that’s only about 1/10 of his games but and I’d describe him as ‘listless’ and ‘disinterested’. Just wondering if you’re basing your thoughts on his effort on a youtube highlight tape or if there was actually a game that you watched and ignored him sulking when he didn’t have the ball or not helping on defense? If… Read more »
Thank you HoopsDogg – that is an excellent point.
I think I made the point. Of the undersized pfs who’ve excelled, the vast majority were excellent rebonders. Bennett isn’t.
And when I compared Bennett with Barkley – it wasn’t because I tried to find a great player with a similar stat line. It was the “eyeball” test that brought Barkley to mind. He looks like and plays like and has a similar skill set to Barkley. I’m going to have to find some Barkley pro highlights so that they can be played side by side with Bennett’s. I want to qualify all this by saying that Barkley was tremendously skilled, but that’s not what got him into the hall of fame – Barkley was a hall of fame competitor.… Read more »
I don’t rely on stats like you guys do. They’re your bible.
You just showed stat lines that show the two are strikingly similar. Bennett was matching Barkley in his freshman year. Then you forsook the stats and spent two paragraphs explaining why they weren’t comparable.
BTW – When you referred to a tubby forward was it Bennett – or the “round mound of rebound” that you meant?
Nate, are you saying drafting Richardson wasn’t a good idea? Why in the world would you say that? Its not like he’s hobbled and there are about nine cheap veteran options that could do 80%-90% of what he does.Sheez I for one can’t wait for him to play between 8 and 12 games this season.
Great stuff on the Barkley/ undersized PF stuff.
Comparing Bennett to a hall of famer like Barkley just because both are around the same size, faster than they look, and would conceivably play the same position, is interesting, but ultimately, I think folley. Just because they’re both husky power forwards with some speed, doesn’t mean Bennett’s in the same stratosphere as a hall of famer. Comparing Minutes 2Pt% 3Pt% FT% Reb Blocks Stl Ast. TO PF Pts. Barkley (FR) 26.6 .595 N/A .636 9.8 1.8 .7 1.1 1.6 3.5 12.7 Barkley (SO)27.9 .644 N/A .644 9.5 1.6 1.1 1.8 2.9 3.6 14.4 Barkley (JR) 28.4 .638 N/A .638… Read more »
Regardless of ability I’m concerned about Bennett NOT WEARING HIS SHOULDER SLING PROPERLY ON NATIONAL TV AT THE DRAFT LOTTERY. He’s a 20 year old who had a rotator cuff repair and was wearing his sling like he was holding the damn thing up with his hand.
@Kyle – the only problem I have with that thought process is this: Let’s say we have grades of the following for our team (not saying this is how I grade them: PG: A SG: B- SF: D- PF: C+ C: D- Adding Bennet (who his rookie season would maybe be a B- if you graded him highly) still leaves us with terrible talent at the 3 and 5. Adding noel (who his rookie season would maybe be a C- once he this the ground) improves your C by a larger margin while also filling a hole. I’d rather see… Read more »
Ben, I was not making a statement about taking Bennett over Noel. Just saying you don’t pass on someone with the first overall pick just because you have someone at that position. You draft on BPA. I would say Noel has a higher ceiling, but Bennett has a very high ceiling as well. Noel also has injury issues which concern me. But bennett should definitely be in the conversation at 1. And I entirely agree that not only will Oladipo be better than Mclemore, he fits our team better. Well still need a more true SF size wise, but oladipo… Read more »
Kyle, you said: “But if you’re convinced he’s an all star caliber player on the offensive end and Brown can get him to play D, you don’t pass on him with 1 based solely on need.”
If you’re convinced that Noel is an All-Star caliber player on the defensive end…you probably shouldn’t pass him because he is a perfect fit on our team.
@Gordon – when you say someone is a tweener, you are basically saying they are a PF/SF, or a SF/SG or a PG/SG…though it is almost always used to describe a PF/SF. If you are telling me Bennett is a PF, that’s fine. If you are telling me he’s a stretch-4, that’s fine too. @Underdog – There is a laundry list of undersized PF’s who never made it in the NBA. I’m a skeptic until proven otherwise. Same with Euro-Bigs. Until they prove themselves, I’m a skeptic…because there are far more flops that fit those criteria than fixes. McLemore has… Read more »
I really want nothing to do with McLemore. Nothing about him screems all-star. He can hit a 3, and can jump out of the gym. He doesn’t have much of a handle, and plays OK defense. I see him being a solid SG in the league, but probably not even better than Dion. And we already have Dion. Oladipo will be a much better player than McClemore, both offensively and defensively, if we wanted to go for a small wing. At least that’s how I see it. And Oli will be able to match up with opposing SF’s a lot… Read more »
Enough with this tweener talk. Bennett is a PF. His wingspan, strength, and athleticism make up for the couple inches he’s missing. He’s not a big pf, but he’s not going to be outmatched there. And he will be able to score as soon as he enters the league. He can stretch the floor and play above the rim, and he’s not terrible in the post, but could use work. 6’7″ shouldn’t scare you, you don’t play with the top of your head. His biggest issue is defensive effort, and frankly I think we have the perfect coach for that… Read more »
Bennett’s bigger than Lebron was his first couple of years. He’s 240 lbs with 7’1″ length and can jump. That and talent will overcome height issue.
It’s Noel, Bennett & McLemore because those are the three that possess NBA all-star qualities. Nobody knows whether they’ll get there or not – but they top all the lists.
Even Porter and Oladipo supporters don’t claim that they’ll one day be all stars.
You pick all stars with the first pick in the draft.
Ben F I never said Barkley was a SF/PF. I said he was one of the best PF of all time, but I guarantee the same conversation was had about him by some that we are having about Bennett. He is 6’6. Bennett is 6’6. Bennett will be drafted to play PF. If the Cavs draft him, they MIGHT try him out at SF, but again, he is a PF. Which is why I said if they did try him at SF, knowing he was a PF, it isn’t likely we pass on him just because we have Tristan Thompson… Read more »
A comment: the debate here, I think, is what will Chris Grant do. All of these guys have some weaknesses, which is what makes the top pick so tricky. But Grant has a history of identifying players who are less esteemed by the broader media/punditry, and rolling the dice with them. Bennet seems to be a guy that fits that description. Grant does not care who the consensus pick is. He will roll with the dude he thinks is the most talented. I think its reasonable to think Bennet is in the convo. I tend to think that Noels will… Read more »
@Gordon – Barkley was a PF. He occasionally played Center and occasionally played SF, but he was a PF. He was drafted to be a PF. He wasn’t one of the best PF/SF of all time. He was one of the best PF of all time. I’m not saying he can’t play PF because he is 6’6. I’m saying he doesn’t have the strength/size to defend the PF spot…or the quickness to defend the SF spot. I’ll gladly eat crow if I’m wrong. But it’s been a long time since I’ve had to do that. In today’s NBA, you could… Read more »
Ben F You asked to name the last tweener worthy of a lottery pick. A HOF by the name of Charles Barkley was a tweener and is one of the best PF all time. If we are arguing about drafting Bennett only to play SF, then I would agree it isn’t a smart pick. But regardless of position, if you think the guy can be a star then you take him (other than PG). Tristan Thompson is not an all-star, yet, so my point is that Anthony Bennett could be the pick if Grant and Co. believe he is the… Read more »
Gordon – Charles Barkley was an undersized PF…I don’t think anyone ever believe he was going to play SF. If you can find something that says that he was considered for SF, I’ll be highly impressed. It’s also hard to compare games for players from that era to players from the current one. The rules are more geared towards offense now…allowing for inflated stats (which is sad when you think about the lack of inflated stats.) As for size being similar…that’s great. Bennett might be great as a PF back in Barkley’s days. But players are so much bigger, stronger… Read more »
Also, the point that Bennett is an “old” freshman is kind of irrelevant. Charles Barkley played 3 years in college and never scored as much as Bennett. Barkley’s FG% was better his freshman year and was basically 60% for 3 years in college, which is awesome. Rebounding is very similar. Blocks and steals are very similar. Bennett was a better FT shooter.
Not saying Bennett is Barkley. Just saying their size and stats are similar. I wish we had a pre-draft review of Barkley to compare to Bennett (ala draftexpress).
@ Ben F
Charles Barkley was a “tweener”.
@Underdog – of course you disagree with his observations/conclusions. They are refuting almost everything you posted earlier. Nobody is 100% sure what positino Bennett will play. He’s undersized for the 4 and there are serious questions marks as to whether he can guard 3’s at the next level. That makes him a tweener. Name me the last tweener who was worth a lottery pick. The closest that I have been able to think up (in recent memory) is Jeff Green…but even then, he’s a good bench guy (which is hardly what we want to spend a lottery pick on.) How… Read more »
Typical ESPN/media pumping a story about Noel’s growth plate being a “new rumor” and “sending tremors throughout the league”. It’s hilarious what ESPN does to get news stories. There’s a new Insider article by Chad Ford that states Noel broke his growth plate in high school and that teams are backing away from him, but passing it off as new news. It’s been common knowledge on this blog for 3-4 months now.
Joey Joe – Are you sure you are talking about Anthony Bennett? Disagree with most of your observations and conclusions. On the other hand, Noel is the pick if deemed healthy. Bennett is the fallback if Grant thinks he’ll compete (something GM’s learn – but we fans don’t know the full story). Believe or not – McLemore is the next fallback if there’s nothing wrong with his head (passivity – failure to take charge in big moments). Those are the 3 that look like potential all stars at this point. A healthy, 255 lb Noel will dominate the league defensively… Read more »
If he can play the 3 or play defense at all, he’s the pick outside of McLemore and Nerlens that would be deemed worthy of a Chris Grant surprise pick.
@Underdog You say people are ‘oversimplifying things to support bias’ yet you do it with multiple points that you make: 1.”Every player has something that needs to be checked out……. it’s a matter of want to.” Of course every player has question marks. However most don’t have questionable passion that could get more questionable once he’s getting guranteed millions. Its apparent in watching him play and reading scouts takes on him that the guy has considerable mental lapses, its not simple to fix typically so you can’t just right it off as something correctable. 2. “The Cavs are soft.” I… Read more »
I also think that – given Bennett’s production, athleticism, and upside – GM’s have been strangely silent on him. Nobody’s really talking about him like they talk about Noel, Oladipo, Porter, McLemore, and Len. He should be mentioned with all those names.
The reason GM’s aren’t leaking any buzz to reporters about Bennett is because he is the guy they all are hoping that will fall to their pick. They don’t want any attention brought to him.
And I don’t know how good Derrick Williams is going to eventually be. He had some really nice games. All I know is that when I saw him on the floor with Minnesota – they seemed to play keep away (from him) and he stood away on the perimeter with a pretty disgusted look on his face. Maybe Minnesota didn’t know how to use him, maybe he didn’t endear himself to his teammates, maybe when things didn’t start the way he expected he soured on things. So he’s the same height as Bennett. That could be where the comparison ends.… Read more »
Every player has something that needs to be checked out. For Bennett, it’s is motor and competitiveness. The highlight film shows him using his length and anticipation to make a few good defensive plays. So as far as I can tell – it’s a matter of want to. His general attitude and demeanor is not unlike Tristan Thompson’s. No way he’s a bad attitude guy – so stop that talk right now. He is a little “straight line-ish” – but not totally. That’s the only physical/athletic weakness I see in him. Seriously. Who doesn’t have a weakness? Again . .… Read more »
@Gordon – here’s a difference between being “freakishly athletic” at the PF spot and “freakishly athletic” at the SF spot. Also, there’s a huge difference between straight line speed and lateral quickness…and lateral quickness is what he’ll need to play defense against other 3’s. I really think he is (as others have already stated) something along the lines of Derrick Williams. Maybe he finds a niche role on a team as a backup…but I really don’t see more out of him than that. I wish he had been able to do some of the other combine drills, particularly the ones… Read more »
@ Cols714
Once again, you don’t know that. Everyone thought they were drafting Barnes last year and they didn’t. Stop pretending you know what Grant is thinking.
Cough, Cough, the cavs are the only team with three players invited to Team USA mini-camp… Zeller is def the worst player there, lol, im not a Huge Gordon Hayward guy but hes prolly better at his position then Lil Z
http://www.usabasketball.com/mens/national/13_mnt_27players.html
@Kj
His Wingspan is very good, Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, and Elton Brand’s wingspan’s are redic
Once again. The Cavs are drafting Noel. Actually anyone that trades for the 1st pick are also drafting Noel. He’s the best prospect in the draft.
Fear the Sword had a good article on this by WitMi.
His wingspan is ridic for a guy of his height!
Derrick Williams shot 56.8% on three pointers his sophomore season Bennett shot 37.5%. Williams was higher from the floor and frow throw line by about 5% each. If Derrick Williams is still struggling (maybe Minnesota is a factor) to find his place I really don’t see this high ceiling that keeps getting mentioned.
He seems to be more fluid and smooth with the ball in his hands than Derrick Williams is. I also think he is as athletic and explosive as Derrick Williams is and more skilled. So probably a better prospect. He is a tweener though, and it seems as if they don’t have a great success rate.
Don’t be surprised if Bennett is the Cavs’ Waiters/Thompson pick this year (if Noel fails his physical). Tremendously advanced offensive skills for age, an “all star’s” athleticism, and just a physical force.
People worry about how he might match up with a small forward. For once, I want other teams worrying about how they can match up with us. At least he has the mass and athleticism to not be run over by the likes of LeBron and some of the other elite not-so-small forwards.
Hahaha, priceless. The Browns are pretty light at TE. Our hopes at the position rest with the unproven Jordan Cameron!
If he drops, the Browns should trade up to get him. Bennett could be Antonio Gates 2.0.
Good idea, Nate.
He also was clearly not as in shape as you would hope and NBA player to be last year. Get his body fat down to around 10% and he may be able to do a better job keeping the effort level up and stay with SF. I also don’t know how he doesn’t compare favorably to Rudy, athleticism (his isn’t listed) and height/length aside. Half a year older, 8 better O-rating, much more efficient scorer, better rebounder, worse passer and stealer. Obviously rudy is a great defender and Bennet is not considered that, but he’s not as abysmal as you… Read more »
Yeah I want no part of Bennett, everybody keeps talking about his elite athleticism, and I just dont see it translating, I like Joey’s comp to Derrick Williams, But less athletic, and a crappy motor… but probably a better shooter I watched an interview on DraftExpress, i believe, where he said he would eventually play 3/2 aka SF/SG I know all big guys want to be small guys but him believing that he is a guard is just laughable, I think he would be a fantastic small ball 4 if a team wanted to go that way, I just will… Read more »
I really hope he doesn’t end up on the Cavs. He’s Derrick Williams with less athleticism, and a crappy motor…. and he can’t work out because of the shoulder injury. Even if we somehow had a shot at him with our second pick I would rather just stick with one of the guys mentioned (Bullock/ Karasev/ Caldwell-Pope). I watched the Mountain West Championship game and he looked so disinterested whenever he didn’t have the ball. I think he’s a good stats bad team guy, seems like he’ll fit great next to Tyreke Evans and Demarcus Cousins in Sacto.
@ Ben F
Isn’t he freakishly athletic, though? Sure the effort wasn’t there in college, but in the NBA you have to assume a player is going to give 110%, or he’ll never make it. His height is not ideal for PF, which is why I feel as though he could play SF. I thought he was decently athletic for his size. Maybe I’m wrong, though!
Gordon – I’m not sure he has the athleticism to guard most 3’s…especially when you combine that with his lackadaisal effort there. I could be wrong, but I’m completely sold against Bennett as having a place in the NBA. He’s like the ultimate tweener.
I haven’t read much about this, but is Bennett absolutely a PF in the NBA? Is there any chance he moves to SF, or is that simply a pipe dream of mine if we were to draft him?
What’s Bennett’s no step?