Supporting cast could hold the key to LeBron’s 2010 decision
2010-04-01
I’m no mind-reader, and I won’t pretend to be one. But in my opinion, the biggest factor in LeBron’s 2010 decision will be deciding which franchise will give him the best chance to win as many championships as possible over the course of the next three to five years.
The Cavs currently have a much better team than any of LeBron’s potential suitors in the summer of 2010. However, what the Cavaliers lack is a true superstar or potential superstar under the age of 30 who could be LeBron’s running mate for the next few seasons. The lowly Nets have a potential star in second-year center Brook Lopez, as well as the chance of snagging John Wall or Evan Turner in the upcoming draft. The Knicks could potentially pair LeBron with a player like Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, or another of the marquee 2010 free agents. Even the dark-horse Clippers have quietly assembled a core of Chris Kaman, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, and a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft. The last few championships have been won by dynamic duos or trios; see Bryant and Gasol, Boston’s big three, Duncan/Parker/Ginobili in San Antonio, Wade and Shaq and Bryant and O’Neal at the beginning of the decade.
The Cavs don’t have any players other than LeBron who could be considered a true superstar. What Danny Ferry has assembled is a team of excellent role players and second-tier stars who play with LeBron extremely well. As the last two regular seasons have shown, LeBron doesn’t need another superstar to dominate the league over the course of 82 games.
As it stands right now, the Cavs’ “core” — players under 30 who play major roles on the team — consists of Mo Williams, Anderson Varejao, Delonte West, and JJ Hickson. All of them are good, all of them play well next to LeBron, and with the exception of West, all of them have long-term deals with the Cavaliers.
However, questions surround all of those players. One of the most painful things about the Cavs’ loss to the Orlando Magic in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals was that Williams and Varejao, their two best young players, both failed to come up big when it mattered most. Williams is a dead-eye shooter who is great at making the open shots LeBron creates and creating opportunities for LeBron in turn, but he was completely ineffective for long stretches against the Magic. He wasn’t hitting his shots, and he struggled to get where he wanted off the dribble. On paper, Williams is the perfect player to put next to LeBron on offense, but he has to make shots in big games.
Varejao’s struggles were more subtle than Williams’, but may have done even more damage to the Cavs’ championship hopes. Varejao was the backbone of the Cavalier defense all season, but against the Magic, he was regularly abused by Dwight Howard down low and struggled to keep Rashard Lewis from hitting shot after shot from the outside. One of Varejao’s biggest defensive mistakes came at the worst possible time, when he bit on a Lewis jab-step to free him up for a go-ahead three with seconds to go in Game 1.
The additions of veterans Shaquille O’Neal and Antawn Jamison will help Varejao out, but LeBron will likely be paying close attention to how Varejao fares in the postseason this year, considering the Cavs have him locked up through the 2014/15 season. Varejao has been the Cavs’ most consistent supporting player all season; like Williams, he must now get it done when it matters most.
Delonte West was a revelation at the 2-guard position last year, and his versatility and ability to play both guard spots make him a role player the Cavs will want to have around for a long time. West is a hard-nosed player with nothing resembling quit in him, and was a consistent contributor in each of the Cavs’ last two playoff runs.
Unfortunately, West had some serious off-court issues in the offseason and lost his starting spot to Anthony Parker, and has never found the consistency he had last season. Also, he still has a trial date at some point in the future. Another strong effort in the playoffs could make West an untouchable in the eyes of the Cavs and the clear long-term solution at the two. If he’s as inconsistent in the postseason as he was in the regular season, he could be seen as nothing more than an above-average rotation player.
JJ Hickson may be the most talented and least proven of the Cavs’ young players. The 21-year old Hickson has had a breakout sophomore campaign, and is likely be the most athletic frontcourt player LeBron has ever played with. He’s had big games against top competition, he finishes with authority, and he can be an absolute force running the floor, cutting without the ball, and working the pick-and-roll with LeBron. However, he’s never been in a postseason rotation, and he’s had some terrible stretches this year. His hands and defense are still question marks, as is his overall package of skills at the offensive end.
The Cavs think so highly of Hickson’s potential that they had no interest in giving him up in a potential Antawn Jamison trade. If Hickson can show why in the playoffs, he could become a very compelling reason for LeBron to stick around.
If those four players play like they’re capable of playing in the playoffs this season, LeBron could be compelled to stay with the Cavs because of the young core they have been able to assemble around him. If they disappoint and the Cavs lose while being forced to rely on veterans like Shaq, Anthony Parker, Antawn Jamison, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, LeBron may come to believe that the Cavaliers are a team who failed to get it done twice and are going in the wrong direction. If the worst were to happen, LeBron may be willing to leave and take a chance on the more unproven secondary players that New Jersey, New York, or even the Clippers could place alongside of him.
I assume ESPN told you to write this piece as part of their Lebron to NY coverage. I understand that a job = doing what your boss tells you to, but we tend think of bloggers as being independent. Can you talk about how often you write what you want vs what espn tells you to? How much does being part of the network influence what you have to/ want to write?
I do not think it is only about what team can show him the best chance at winning multiple championships as he once stated,”no matter where I am, we’ll win!”No, I think he considers a number of factors like becoming a billionaire. Does Cleveland afford him the best chance at reaching his financial goal? I honestly feel he does not consider “being from here” so much..he is a grown man, has traveld the planet, is friends with some of the most famous, richest people in the world..that said, what do you think those people blow in his ear about living… Read more »
Bradley: I mentioned Wall & Turner because Krolik did, and he mentioned them because they’re a good bet to be drafted by the teams that are going after LBJ. They might be superstars one day, but there’s no guarantees. And we can split hairs about whether Bosh and Johnson are superstars in the sense that LBJ and Kobe are superstars … but why should we? Let’s enjoy LBJ and the team he plays for NOW, and not have our dialogues dictated by ESPN. This is a non-story. Nothing has changed since the “LBJ to New York” talk intensified this offseason… Read more »
“I still don’t understand the whole marketing thing being bigger in new york” Bottom line … it isn’t. It’s just a myth perpetrated by BSPN because they are DESPERATE to get Lebron into New York. The real fact of the matter is that BSPN needs Lebron in New York way more than Lebron needs to be in New York. Lebron in NY would mean higher ratings for NBA televised events … in fact, they probably get decent NY ratings now, just from continously inflating Knicks fans’ hopes of getting him next year. Which is why the constantly peddle this crap.… Read more »
“The best scenario — maybe the only one that keeps LeBron — is to win it all this year and have Mo, Delonte and Hickson come up big in the playoffs.” I agree with you, Ed (although I’d also add Varajeo). I don’t think it’s the only scenario where he stays, but if you want the ideal formula, I think that’s definitely it. As others have mentioned, the other key is somehow getting a guy who can guard guys like D12. I think the sentiment from the comments echoes a lot of what was in the post. The probabilities are… Read more »
I still don’t understand the whole marketing thing being bigger in new york. I mean, is state farm, nike, and mcdonalds only local to Ohio…and New York has the really big companies??I don’t get it. It isn’t like LeBron isn’t already marketed by the world’s largest companies in their respective fields…wtf does New York have to offer that he doesn’t already have in terms of marketting?
JK,
You know, you don’t have to write a blog to follow up to some nonsense ESPN post(s).
The idea that New York is a bigger market in 2010 is ridiculous… it no longer matters which city you’re associated with, as long as LBJ keeps wining, he’ll continue to be a global icon and sell his damn shoes
So ESPN.com’s main picture today is of LeBron in a Knicks jersey. If this bigger market is so great, then why do they have to rely on hypotheticals to sell it? If winning championships is important to NYC (as it is to LeBron), then maybe they should have put a picture up of the Yankees for ESPNNewYork, not a wish list for the Knicks. This isn’t the 70’s, a player can be big anywhere. LeBron transcends the game and doesn’t need New York to help him get bigger. At this point he just needs rings.
krolik, it is almost criminal to do an article like this and NOT mention ferry and gilbert as part of the equation. they have a TRACK RECORD of bringing in pieces and ferry KILLS other teams on trades. those are FACTS. LBJ has seen it. so trying to project this cavs teams two years fro now is an exercise in futility! again, look at the roster two years ago! would YOU have predicted this current roster then?? of course not! the fact is ferry and gilbert are just an important to mention as JJ and andy are in when discussing… Read more »
A few things: -Agreed that this year LeBron’s supporting cast is the best is has been in years, but with all the expiring deals/old players on the team (Parker, AJ, Shaq) who knows where the Cavs will be in 2-3 years -Dan Gilbert has deep pockets and has clearly shown he will be willing to make moves to help the team-it’s a win-win for DG because he is helping the team and with LBJ he guarantees that the seats will be filled. -The teams that are targeting LBJ (New York, New Jersey, Chicago) are more works in progress (albeit Chicago… Read more »
Charlie, “superstar” is just an abstract word that anyone can bend the meaning to. The fact is Bosh is one of the best players in the league, so yeah, that’d a very nice player next to LeBron. And I don’t know how you could say “John Wall? Evan Turner?” when they haven’t even been drafted yet.
Look-out on espn home page. Front page has LeBron in a Knicks jersey. ESPN REALLY wants LeBron to go to New York with all of their heart.
Thought-provoking analysis as usual, John. It truly is depressing to think about Jamison, Ilgauskas, Shaq and Parker a year or two from now. All four are clearly in decline. Z seems to have particularly little left. Imagine the Cavs don’t win it all this year (although there’s a good chance they will). Now imagine looking at those four and considering whether that group and the younger players will be enough to win multiple championships next year and beyond? This would not be a reason for LeBron to be optimistic. And if LeBron signs, what more could Ferry add over the… Read more »
Thought-provoking analysis as usual, John. It truly is depressing to think about Jamison, Ilgauskas, Shaq and Parker a year or two from now. All four are clearly in decline. Z seems to have particularly little left. Imagine the Cavs don’t win it all this year (although there’s a good chance they will). Now imagine looking at those four and considering whether that group and the younger players will be enough to win multiple championships next year and beyond? This would not be a reason for LeBron to be optimistic. And if LeBron signs, what more could Ferry add over the… Read more »
I know it isn’t the main point of the article, but the best team with cap room to sign LeBron this summer was left off the list. I would argue that Chicago does have a better supporting cast than Cleveland. Rose is better than any player LeBron has played with before. Noah is a good big and Deng would probably be the most versatile teammate LeBron has ever had. Also, they seem like they will have a lottery pick in this year’s draft along with a talented young big in Gibson. The rest of the article was spot on though.… Read more »
I think if LeBron stays or not is most reliant upon what Danny Ferry and the owner do. If Miami get’s Stat or Bosh and the Cavs (who will be even further over the cap) don’t get the other nor another premier big (and someone to guard Howard), then Lebron will leave. Shaq may have enough left in the tank for 1 or t years, but that’s a ‘may’. I would love to see Joe Johnson running along side LeBron (which I think may be the most likely star/superstar they could get) but I think they would still need to… Read more »
Dave, can you say China?? We now have oweners that have bigger connections than anyone else in the NBA. Between Gilbert and his billionares club that he got Lebron invited to attend the meetings to the new Chineese Cavs minority owners. Cleveland has bigger global connections right now than New York.
FUTURE!! GLOBAL MARKETING! and exactly where does Cleveland fit in that picture?
Honest assessment of LeBron leaving… First, should it happen I won’t think less of him unless he pulls a Bell. Say it isn’t about the money but demand you be the highest paid player in the league. Be honest about it and I for one won’t think less of you. Now, will it happen? I doubt it but let’s look at the reasons put forth for it. 1) Money. He’s got plenty by most standards already, but the fact remains that salary wise no one can beat a Cleveland deal due to how things are structured. That leaves endorsements. Alot… Read more »
I wonder what would happen to the guys in that locker room if LeBron left? Imagine the reaction of Mo Williams. What would he do without LeBron? Or JJ Hickson? Hell, even Mike Brown. What would they think? If he does leave, I want to know their true reactions, which we probably would never get. Except for maybe Z’s.
Meh … this article actually makes me feel better about LeBron’s odds of staying. Chris Kaman? John Wall? Evan Turner? Eric Gordon? These are not “superstars” LeBron’s going to bolt Cleveland for. Even Joe Johnson & Chris Bosh are great players … but “superstars”? I don’t know. The logic in this article strengthens my belief that what LeBron will do is sign a medium-range extension, just like he did last time. The reality is that no team can offer the quality of supporting cast he has now (something that definitely couldn’t be said the last time he re-upped), and it’s… Read more »
Brian Windhorst brought up a small point that I think LeBron needs to consider, and that is how badly the Browns move to Baltimore hurt Cleveland. Can you imagine how impossible it would have been for Art Model to keep “roots” in Cleveland if he’d had them? If LeBron leaves Akron for the bright lights of NY or any other place, I’m afraid he better kiss his home in Akron goodbye, as well as his “roots” in that city. He will certainly be persona-non-grata in Ohio for the rest of his life. This is by no means a threat by… Read more »
One other thing no one ever mentions, or are even aware of… Akron is hood. Bron grew up hood. In hood circles, Clevelanders have flaunted a NY-style superiority complex over the smaller Akron for years. Having lived in both places, I can tell you that a LOT of Akronites don’t like Cleveland or Clevelanders, much like some folks hate the arrogant NY’er. LeBron always makes a point to say he’s not from Cleveland, he’s from Akron. His loyalty is there, in the 330. *If* Bron shares that attitude -a very real possibility based on his upbringing – snubbing CLE for… Read more »
I find it interesting that not one superstar has signed, or even shown interest in signing up to play with Bron here in C-town. Our biggest FA haul has been…Larry Hughes?! As a CLE diehard, it frightens me that a few of his potential suitors not only have better talent on the roster, but are also much easier to sell FA’s on.
John’s just being a realist. The fact is, while the Cavs are set-up good for the next 2 years for sure, some of the teams he mentioned set-up better beyond that. I don’t think John is saying those teams would be better NEXT year, but if Lebron is looking at “which team am I going to win multiple championships on in the future,” there’s no question those teams are in the conversation. And yes, of course Wall doesn’t make any team an NBA champion. He’s not saying that. But add Lebron to any equation and the teams are going to… Read more »
I think Lebron is going to stay, and I think no matter what the Cavs will definitely be a great team for the next few years if Lebron stays. But once they lose Shaq and Jamison (2 more years of this year’s production is probably pushing it a lot), I think they still need a tall center who can guard guys like Dwight Howard and Bynum. I don’t know too much about contracts and cap room and stuff, but I was looking at the Cavs’ contracts and it doesn’t look like we have enough financial flexibility to get anyone new… Read more »
I couldn’t disagree more with most of this, but there’s one point I need explained to me in detail. Wall is a phenomenal, but how does he make any team an NBA champion? Who was the last PG that a team could not have won a championship without? Billups, I guess? Parker at a stretch? Before that….Isaiah, Magic? That’s 20 years of championships won by defensive systems (coaches), big men and amazing wing players. You could have plugged any average guard at the 1 and gotten by. For that matter, look at how many #1s have won a championship in… Read more »