A look at the Combine Results
2013-05-20
Shane Larkin is poised to make noise in the NBA.
(This is Part 14, the final in the series that I published at Hardwood Paroxysm throughout the year.)
The 2013 NBA combine is behind us. After thirteen parts attempting to quantify what it all means, now it is time to declare winners & losers. Let’s start with the crew deserving a bump in their draft status.
Winners
Shane Larkin – If his NCAA-leading points produced through pick & rolls (scores plus assists) didn’t impress you, or his 24 points per game during Miami’s ACC Tourney run, then how about his joining this crew: Derrick Rose, Russ Westbrook, Mike Conley Jr, John Wall, Nate Robinson, and Jerryd Bayless? Those were the drafted underclassmen point guards with sprint speed below 3.15 seconds and no-step vert of 30” or more. Ignore concerns about his tiny stature; this Hurricane is primed to do big things.
Otto Porter – Tall small forwards rate as the NBA’s most-productive two-way players. Who stood tallest of the 2013 small forward class? Of course, Otto Porter, also the draft’s most productive 19-year old. I see a strong NBA career, despite middling athleticism tests…which aren’t consistently reflective of NBA success or failure for a small forward, anyways (actually, most of those correlations were negative).
Phil Pressey – He surpassed 3.2 seconds in the sprint and 11 seconds in the agility drill as a draft-worthy upperclassmen point guard. That’s been a can’t-miss combination over the last thirteen years and a great source of late value. Peyton Siva also bested these thresholds, but currently ESPN and Draftexpress include him outside the likely draftees*; at nearly 23, he has never been a particularly effective collegiate offensive player. This serves as opportunity to say, don’t overrate players that otherwise may not warrant drafting, just because of favorable combine results (obviously an Olympic track athlete isn’t likely to find NBA success).
Nerlens Noel – Did I bump my head? I am giving Noel the benefit of the doubt here. The small group of very long, very speedy prodigy centers is fairly glamourous. Nerlens’ 110” reach meets one criteria, and I have faith that his sprint speed bests 3.3 seconds.
Victor Oladipo – The complete list of underclassmen (Oladipo is still 21 as of February 1st, 2014) shooting guards with first-round talent and a 6’ – 9” wingspan, 31” no-step vert and 35” max vert in the last fourteen drafts is: James Harden, Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Joe Johnson, Eric Gordon, Ronnie Brewer and Jeremy Lamb. I expect the young Hoosier will fit nicely into this list. Ben McLemore also leapt over 31″ from a stand-still, exhibiting a trait often portending success for first-round, underclass shooting-guard talent. Allen Crabbe barely missed the combination of qualifiers that Oladipo met.
Cody Zeller – His sprint speed ties the third best of the centers evaluated by this study. His no-step vert rose the highest of the entire 2013 Combine. Given the precedent of these traits predicting success in underclassmen centers, this helps solidify Zeller in the top-ten. Norvel Pelle flashed an exciting blend of speed and length…who is he? I don’t know, but as a late second round project, he may be worth a look.
Losers
Rudy Gobert – Here’s the shocker; my big, contrarian view. Also, this may not be fair, because this project focused solely on NCAA players. But heading into May 16th, reports of his wingspan were 7’ – 9”…now it’s a confirmed 7’ – 8.25”. Why would this bump his draft stock? As an anecdotal case, the players in the draftexpress.com database with wingspan greater than 7’ – 8” include: Mamadou N’Diaye, John Riek, Alexis Ajinca, Saer Sene, Michael Olowokandi, Chris Marcus, and Boban Majanovic. Is this a list that inspires confidence? Detailed here and here, as a general rule, increased size did not correlate to improved offensive or defensive success for centers; instead, elite athleticism generally corresponded to raised performance.
Follow me on this gross simplification, as I attempt to illustrate a point. Of the players investigated in this study:
- Gobert’s reach of 9’ – 7” exceeds the 70th percentile of centers by 3.5”.
- His max vert of 29” falls below the 70th percentile by 4”.
- OK. Ignore the second bullet point. Based on his sprint speed of 19.7 ft / sec, compared to 70th percentile speed of 21.2 ft / sec, it takes 1/5 of a second for the faster player to gain 3.5″.
While I’m not sure that solved anything, athleticism provided much more reliable prediction of NBA success for Centers. Gobert’s sprint speed was third-worst of the 2013 combine, his agility second from the bottom, with max-vert tied for last. He failed at the more important stuff. I don’t think the events of May 16 and 17 did anything to positively differentiate from May 15th .
Shabazz Muhammad – At the one position where size rated as consistently beneficial, the UCLA freshman comes up short. Turning 21 at the start of next season, combined with non-elite NCAA production, he is probably a reach in the top ten.
Late draft shooting guards – Snagging a “two” in the final quarter of the draft is a longstanding popular decision amongst NBA front offices; following that pattern, a recent draftexpress.com mock shows five coming off the board between picks 46 and 60. Invariably, these picks have not worked out…potentially bad news for Ricky Ledo, BJ Young, Vander Blue, Brandon Paul, or Michael Snaer. Rolling the dice on a fast point guard is historically smarter.
Myck Kabongo – In addition to the facts that he was not particularly productive at Texas, and that he technically qualifies as an upperclassmen (22 years old by February 1st), his athleticism results were gross. Not a good combination for a prospective point guard.
Upperclassmen Centers – Over the last 13 drafts, this has typically been the domain of marginally performing players. The exceptions are Joakim Noah, Roy Hibbert, Emeka Okafor, and Brendan Haywood. Accounting solely for defense, Jason Collins can be added to the list. Disappointing speed and leaping results from Kelly Olynyk and Jeff Withey do not help their case towards breaking into this tiny group of successes. Gorgui Dieng skipped the athleticism testing.
Neutral
Any sub-six foot point guard – Size showed zero inclination towards predicting offensive success for point guards, so if you like Trey Burke, Shane Larkin, Phil Pressey, Pierre Jackson or Isaiah Cannon, don’t be scared-off that they’re shorter than you.
Undersized big men – Richard Howell, Andre Roberson, DeShaun Thomas; if you liked these guys before the combine…carry on.
Anyone not listed here – Basically regardless of how amazing or disappointing the thing they did was…you shouldn’t let it dramatically change your perception of their draft stock.
*Casper Ware did not possess the necessary skill-set to get him drafted, hence he would not qualify in a re-do of this study in five years. As a small, fast point guard though, I featured him with a picture in the second part of this series. Due to that, I will always feel a small interest in his career. This year, in his rookie professional season in Europe, he sits as the second leading scorer (20.4 ppg) and fourth-best assist person in Italian Lega2. Despite struggling around the basket, he posted respectable true shooting of 55% to go with his bulk scoring. His team currently battles in their playoffs, clinching a first round series yesterday, behind Ware’s 20 points on 59% true shooting. Good luck in the semifinals, Casper. Come on, NBA cellar-dwellars and higher-level Euro teams…next year, we can do better than the Italian second-division for Mr. Ware!!
We are a very weak defensive team. Bennett doesn’t correct that. Bennett is a tweener. Name me the last successful starting 3/4 tweener please. I see Bennett as a sixth man, bench scorer. He is a guy you run with a small ball lineup…but you have to hide his defensive weaknesses in a regular lineup. Who do we have that can do that? A sixth man is very important when winning championships…but we need starters first…and that is what we should expect out of an early lottery pick.
The 1/2/13 DraftExpress.com bio had him with only 19 turnovers in 386 minutes . . . but his lack of assists hurts the ratio.
Even with Oladipo and McLemore – I know we’ll be getting somebody that will help us be more successful next year. As fans, we all have our personal favorites.
Nate Smith / Kevin Hetrick: Apologize for messing up the nice write up on the combine. Sometimes you get started down a path it’s difficult to turn back.
Bennett actually had a much worse AST/TO ratio than I thought, .9/1.9. So yeah, he’s a ball stopper. And he had an excellent handle… for a PF in a weak conference. He may end up the best of the bunch, but its far from obvious now. I won’t cry either if Grant picks him. I’ll probably cuss a little if porter/Noel is still on the board, but only a little and then I’ll get over it and excited to see how he translates. You may have talked him up to #3 on the all important big board in my head,… Read more »
If I’m not mistaken, he has a surprisingly good assist to TO ratio. He handles the ball extremely well. “If Bennett played for Georgetown . . .” I can only judge what by what I see and not what others surmise. The dude can do things offensively at 19 that very few can. He’s light years ahead of Tristan Thompson now. He’s a load. He’s nimble. He’s creative. He has a pretty shot. If he goes in the top 5 (which he will) – he would have played prominently for Georgetown. If Derrick Williams wasn’t a disappointment . . .… Read more »
I look at it the other way. Instead of seeing our team as “Soft” I see them as “terrible at defense and short”. This is something Porter will help with a bit more than Bennett. Being that heavy doesn’t help much on defense if you aren’t going against centers, which he won’t be. We already have plenty of guys on our team who should be ball-dominant, add another high usage guy, who has less than a 1:1 assist/TO ratio isn’t ideal.
Bennett is a lot less impressive if you actually go through his game log and see the teams he put up his stats against. If Bennett plays for Georgetown he probably doesn’t come close to Porter’s production.
Nate Smith. Point taken. But in response to replies – no way Bennett will be a bench player. At worst, he’s a defensive liability against highly skilled small forwards. On the other hand he’s long, has ups, is incredibly athletic for his size, and does have good defensive anticipation and makes good plays when interested. I like that he’s a “powerhouse.” I’m tired of Cavs being pushed around . . . of Zeller being abused and Irving getting knocked down. Let’s stop being reactive to everybody. Let’s dictate and force other teams to deal with what we bring. He might… Read more »
@underdog. The article/series was about combine athletic testing results and how they project success in the NBA. Since Bennett didn’t participate in the combine due to injury, he was omitted. As for Gobert, almost every rookie big is a project. There are very very few who aren’t a risk. As someone mentioned, there seem to be just as many quality bigs who come from late rounds as from early, so perhaps an early pick on him may not be wise. But to say the team does not have time for a big man project is silly. True quality centers in… Read more »
A huge selling point for Otto is his outside shot, something livingston will never have. Bennett’s freshman season stats are damn impressive though. The more I think about it, the less opinionated I feel. I just hope Grant picks well, its going to be a crap shoot, even with Nerlens. I think there will be at least a perenial all-star or two from the top of this draft, but hell if I know which players they’ll be, maybe outside of McLemore (SG suck right now). They all have a lot of potential, and a lot of risks. My worries for… Read more »
@ JoeyJoe
I think you nailed it with the Derrick Williams comparison. That “tweener” label gives GMs pause. Look at Paul Millsap. I think he dropped all the way to 40 because of it (although, he’s worked out quite well). It’s amazing how one inch of height cost him darn near 20 draft positions.
Joey Joe – Odds of finding a perennial all-star in this draft (particularly at the 3 position) are practically nil. The SF is one of the deepest positions in the NBA…and a great many of them are entering their prime. Underdog – With Bennett…his offensive prowess isn’t really a question…it’s his defensive capabilities. Smalls can out quick him – and at 240 lbs PF’s will run through him. Basketball is a two way sport. Unless he is an absolute beast on one end of the floor (either offensive or defensive) he is a bench player at best. You’ll have to… Read more »
@Underdog. From what I’ve read its motor (I agree that Bennett looked disinterested for stretches of games that I watched) but also the stigma attached to offense first undersized PF’s. GM’s and scouts are reactive and Derrick Williams’ struggles make people worry about Bennett. He would be an interesting fit next to our current bigs, BUT if his flags are motor and defense do the Cavs want to roll the dice on him when those were two of their flaws last year? On the reactive point the success of Paul George and development of Jeff Green show that Porter is… Read more »
Finally, if you want an Otto Porter type you don’t have to use an elite draft pick – resign Shaun Livingston. He’s coming into his own. It’ll take Porter three years to get there.
The only question I have about Bennett is “what type of motor does he have?” If he has anywhere near Charles Barkley’s motor, I laugh at an Otto Porter selection. Get the best player at 3. Defensive specialists and play makers at 19.
How is it possible that Anthony Bennett is hardly mentioned here? He may be a “tweener” but he’s powerful and athletic, with advanced offensive skills – inside and out. Don’t ask – “Can he match up with small forwards?” Ask, “Can small forwards match up with him?” He can out quick bigs – at 240 lbs run through smalls – and has beautiful form on the three. He’s a risk, but has the most potential of this year’s group to emerge as the star of this draft. I’m shocked he’s barely mentioned. Don’t be surprised if the Cavs end up… Read more »
Does this change how anyone feels about Zeller? As a “skilled big” I always felt like he would be a nice fit next to Tristan, I just wasn’t sure he’d be good enough overall to help us get to the next level. With him measuring as an elite athlete, I like him a lot more as a prospect–especially given that he’s already shown a high level of skill and coordination. He might be a reach in the top 3, but he’s an intriguing option if we fall outside of that. But here’s another question: are we building a starting lineup… Read more »
RE; Steven Adams -A couple of months back he was listed as 50/50 to enter to the draft and supposedly was swayed quickly when he got a guarantee from a low lottery team that he wouldn’t fall past them….. This might be a smoke screen but I feel like if the Cavs really felt he was their future starting C, it might take moving up to maybe 13 to do that (I’d be in favor if of moving if it only cost us the Sacto pick and one of our second rounders or taking on a small salary) RE: Oladipo… Read more »
Did you turn up any correlations regarding weight Kevin? For instance, does Oladipo’s additional 20 pounds of muscle give him a significant advantage over McLemore? Should we be worried about Porter and especially Noel because of their unusually light weights?
If they don’t get Noel I’m fine with them going Porter, McLemore or Olapido with their pick and finding the value of one of the centers in the teens. Centers are such a mystery now because it takes them so long to figure out their bodies and refine their skills.
My comment got eaten…it may appear later but I’ll just condense it:
1) Wish Oladipo could play SF because I would prefer his motor and defensive intensity over what Porter brings
2) Please don’t take Gobert…I’d rather two perimeter college guys than Porter and a Euro-stiff project. Zeller is enough of a project big man. Trade for an established big or sign one…we don’t have time to start another big man project.
I’m not pushing for the Cavs to take Leslie at 19. But if he’s available at 31 or 33 (and the Cavs still have those pick), it’s an idea. It’s low risk at that point.
Anyways, my original point was that he might have boosted his stock from mid 2nd round with that workout. If he does well in the 5-on-5 drills, then definitely.
Well, a lot of this Kevin, though is arbitrary slotting into positions… I think we’re evolving towards a much less “position” oriented NBA. But I understand what you’re saying. Caldwell Pope’s speed won’t help him if he doesn’t have the ball in his hands…
Nate,
I disagree that “a lot” of it is “arbitrary” slotting into positions. There is certainly some of that, but it’s normally founded on a best-estimation (not arbitrary). My inclination is that the position-less NBA is more narrative than reality.
It’s impossible to perfectly accomplish what I was trying to assess; there are too many factors influencing these players that are more important than their sprint speed. I think what I accomplished definitely provides better context for the value of these measurements than existed before though.
Also Nate,
Didn’t you read part 10? I discussed the difficulties involved in assigning some players to positions. I can’t believe someone missed even one of the amazingly riveting 14 parts.
Re: CJ Leslie I watched him play for NC State in last 2 years (I’m a grad school there). He is the definition of a tweener. Not enough perimeter skills to play SF but not strong enough to guard PFs in the NBA. NC State used him mostly at the 4 position. Pros: -Dynamite shot blocker thanks to leaping ability -Tenacious dunker -For a PF, good ball handler -Runs the floor -Solid defender thanks to length Cons: -No shot outside 10 feet -Can’t shoot free throws -Doesn’t have body type to guard strong NBA PFs -Inconsistent Effort He might be… Read more »
great stuff Kevin. i agree on Leslie. Athletic, but what NBA skills are really there?
It’s too bad that Oladipo doesn’t really measure out as a SF. I feel like his motor and defensive intensity would fit better with the Cavs than Porter. And please, no more of this Gobert talk. Last thing this team needs is some Euro-stiff…we already have Zeller essentially filling that role. I would rather add 2 less-risky college perimeter guys than take a chance on some overseas project – hell, I would rather take a chance on 2 risky perimeter guys (like Glen Rice) than take a flyer on Gobert. Find a quality big man in free agency or via… Read more »
Yeah, the more I examine Leslie’s game, the more he seems like Jamario Moon.
Hmmm. As I said yesterday, Gobert’s sprint/agility times should be taken with a grain of salt, as players this big rarely even sprint. But yes, I’m tempering my enthusiasm. As much as I hate to do it, If Cody Zeller is sitting there late, it might be worth it to move up and grab him. I had no idea he was this athletic. http://www.draftexpress.com/article/NBA-Combine-Athletic-Testing-Analysis-4195 gives a nice picture of aggregated results. Shane Larkin just made himself a couple million dollars. I could see him moving up into the 20s. How badly would the Lakers like their pick back? He’d be… Read more »
Nate, Some players with great size and athleticism will stink as pros. Some players with marginal size and athleticism will be great pros. The point of this series was to differentiate which traits most reliably result in high performance and note the players that met those criteria. Players that don’t meet the thresholds outlined could be very good, but there is not a historical trend towards their particular trait consistently equating to success. Regarding the players you list (many of whom I like): Michael Carter Williams sprint time of 3.22 is actually around the 40% percentile of the 54 results… Read more »
Tim Hardaway’s results left him as one of my “final-cuts” from the article.
And again, low correlations basically mean that the same number of players were able to succeed who were poor at the trait, as the number able to succeed that were strong at the trait (same with failures).
@ Kevin
True. But didn’t MKG have similar criticisms last draft? He wasn’t a great ball-handler, nor did he shoot well. However, there was no talk about moving him to PF because of that.
I’m not really trying to compare them as players. I know there’s a lot of difference between those two. I’m saying that the lack of skills you mentioned might not keep him from playing SF…a la Tayshaun Prince.
Cody,
Obviously there is a gray-area between every position. MKG was a pretty decent passer, averaging more assists than Leslie in less minutes. MKG took 51 three-point attempts, compared to 6 for Leslie. He strikes me as having a more-perimeter oriented skill-set. Also, MKG was 40 months younger at draft time than Leslie is. It’s easier to see him improving his shooting, dribbling, passing.
Maybe I’m way off-base, but I don’t see Leslie as an effective NBA wing.
No I meant Adams… Idk I would really expect him to move up draft boards beyond Gobert, could be wrong, I would be pleasantly surprised if he is there at 19
@ Adam
“@RB we will probably have to package picks and move up to get Adams… but im also fine with that”
Did you mean Gobert? I’d be a little surprised if Adams went higher than 19.
From reading the Part 6 and Part 12 Blogs, it seems as like you should be Favoring Steven Adams because of his age, strong speed scores, and overall good combine results, but no mention here?
Is something else sticking out that you are not liking… lack of numbers in College?
@RB we will probably have to package picks and move up to get Adams… but im also fine with that
Shouldn’t C. J. Leslie have been listed as a winner?
Cody,
As a tall SF, then he would have been a winner. I considered Leslie a PF…so no, he’s neutral. I mean, he’s 6- 9″ (in shoes); he doesn’t shoot, pass or dribble particularly well. That’s a PF, right? I can’t see him being an effective wing in the NBA.
Adam,
I like Adams. As it relates to his combine results, those were good, and are a positive, but they weren’t extremely notable.
He missed the “final cut” as I edited the article.
Reach whoops. Nevermind i need to learn how to read…
Rudy “The Helicopter” Gobert with his 9′ 7″ wingspan haha. Those arms would be dragging on the floor :P Otherwise interesting stuff. I’m all for Porter with pick 1 and I’m hoping for Steven Adams with pick 2.