Links to the Present: Early, off-season trade rumors
2013-04-26
So what are we talking here? Tyler Zeller and the Lakers pick? It's a deal.
I don’t have anything particular to say about these recent rumors, and don’t want to write a thousand words about it anyways.
One is an unflattering take on Cleveland’s fantasy to obtain LaMarcus Aldridge. To summarize, the theme is that the Cavs are doomed.
And Chris Broussard at ESPN says Cleveland is eyeing Kevin Love and Aldridge, due to the franchise’s poorly kept secret that they want to lure LBJ back in 2014 (insider content). Ummmm…that’s a lot to chew on, too.
Barring details of what comprises these imaginary mega-deals, I’d rather think about the draft. Kevin Pelton thinks that Otto Porter is worth 3+ WARP next year; slightly less than expected from Love or Aldridge, but it is a reality that I can comprehend.
Sorry about the limited opinion here. Next week, I promise some draft related content. Hopefully twice.
Commenters, make sense of it all.
Kevin, don’t you know anecdotal evidence ALWAYS trumps actual data and cherry-picked small sample sizes ALWAYS trump large sample sizes?
People always do this silly shite Nate is know doing now. ‘Fraid they always will…
I kind of wish people would get over/past the Kevin Love thing. It isn’t happening.
Kevin, yup … and a cool dunk on YouTube, that’s it.
Ok, Nate. NOw Barnes has two good playoff games in a row. I am curious why your opinion is that one (or two) early first round playoff games supersedes an entire season of 13.8 PER vs 11.0 PER?
Minnesota doesn’t win because they have paper mâché Love, string cheese ACL Rubio, and the angry Russian grunt in most action flicks Pekovic …. And, like, some other white foreign dudes.
Sorry, Greg, Harrison Barnes’ 16 points, 4.5 rebounds in two games and a win just trumped everything Dion did in the regular season. If he keeps this up for the rest of the series starting for Lee, he leaves Dion in the dust.
Also, DON’T OVERPAY FOR POWER FORWARDS. Power forward is the deepest position in the league, and the easiest to fill. Scarcity dictates that elite centers and swing men are the guys worth overpaying for. It stands to reason that there’s a reason Portland and Minnesota don’t win.
Nate Smith,
Barnes’ first game was 8 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist and 4 fouls in 28 minutes. So, really he had one good game. That’s all you need?
I too agree and to bring this full circle, Porter’s college PER was pretty damn good. I wonder if Pelton will include PER in his version of Draft Rater?
@ Tom
Miami just got the title gift-wrapped, I agree. I think they’ll lose 5 games in the process.
Aldridge doesn’t make sense unless Grant would drastically overpay. Kahn is out in Minny. That could go either way with Love. The base for a trade would probably be Tristan and two first rounders. Depending on the picks I’d be okay with it. None of us know what Thompson’s ceiling is. I’d really like to see what Thompson can become, but if you can get an All-Star caliber player you do it. I assume Dion would be the player who is traded simply because I bought a Waiters jersey and he’s my favorite Cav. This isn’t based on analytics or… Read more »
Btw, reports out that Kahnis out at Minny and Saunders is in. Does this change the chances Love is traded? Void for thought…
With Westbrook needing knee surgery I predict the Heat will lose no more than 1 game en route to the title.
No fan base deserves it more.
Kevin, now that is seems Pelton is the man who hath replaced Hollinger as ESPN’s “advanced stats” guy, are you as confident in his draft predictions? I became so comfortable with Hollinger…
Kj,
I like Pelton and Basketball Prospectus’s Individual Win %’s and WARP, but I think an even more earth-moving development is about to occur soon in website-based advanced stats and analytics.
Regarding his prediction on Porter, I agree with him. Orlando and Charlotte will both pass on a small forward, right? I hope that Porter is available to Cleveland anywhere in the top five (someone probably said that earlier in the comments).
I didn’t get the Woj article. It reads like a rant and accuses the Cavs of making every move as part of some grand plan to lure Lebron back (tanking for draft picks, not signing free agents, trying to trade for good players), rather than a methodical rebuild. Maybe he’s got sources who are really tuned into this plan, but it seems more likely that he’s misinterpreting everything. This is exactly how Cleveland needs to rebuild, whether Lebron is coming back or not.
Seems like we would be selling low on TT and Dion, considering what I’ve read about their perceived value around the league.
Almost seems like we should wait until next season starts and they start really impressing (hopefully).
I’d take Love over Aldridge in a heartbeat. I don’t even think it’s close.
@Jash-
Aldridge/Love is a close call. I guess it depends on what you think is more valuable. Aldridge is a more well rounded, true post-up PF that can also play some center. Love is elite in a few categories (rebounding, range, passing) and deficient in others (defense, size, speed, skin color). Just depends on what you want. But if I have to give up two budding young players in TT and Waiters, personally I’d want something elite in return.
@Jash
He’s a good source for NBA news, but man that article just made me completely discount his basketball opinions for now on. It’s like he watched every team in the league besides Cleveland and then wrote an article about how Cleveland has no talent other than Kyrie.
Woj is a blowhard, seriously. Believe what he says at your peril. I would rather have Aldridge than Love- better defender, right Kevin?
Tristan came into the league with so little competitive basketball experience compared to Jonas. That was obvious his rookie year as he looked like a deer in the headlights..trying to dunk everything and block every shot.
Clearly Tristan is developing at a slower rate than we would like, but there is no question that he is developing. And let’s be honest…a legit 7-footer with offensive skill better have a higher FG% than a 6’9 PF who had zero offensive moves when the season started.
I think both draft picks are developing well- TT will average a double double next year and Dion should have been in the discussion for ROY. That dunk over birdman was awesome and I expect Dion to posterize more than a couple shot blockers next season. Since Woj made the comparison I guess he missed a couple important stats: TT PER 16.12, 11.7/9.4, Per 48 17.9/14.5 > JV PER 15.62, 8.9/6, Per 48 17.9/12 And for anyone doubting Dion over Barnes: DW PER 13.77, 14.7 ppg, 24.4 ppg per 48 > HB PER 11.08, 9.2 ppg, 17.4 ppg per 48… Read more »
@Witmi
I don’t think you could say that Jonas or TT is CLEARLY the better prospect.
And even if you prefer Jonas to TT, as Woj does, it’s still completely moronic to say that the Cavs blew that pick. TT has already proven that’s a farce.
Witmi, just from the stats I would certainly side with Jonas, but TT does have a pretty significant edge in Rebounds to make up for his lower of percentages, and their other stats have been a near wash on a per minute basis with TT actually playing more minutes and more often against starters, but again we’re comparing TT’s second year in the league to Jonas first, but Jonas has actually been playing against pro’s longer, but he’s also a year younger. Its tough to say, Thats why its still a toss up. I’ll wait a couple more years before… Read more »
Oh, and that Woj article was one of the worst pieces of sports journalism I’ve read all year. That type of uninformed drivel belongs on Bleacher Report, honestly – it read like something from someone with a very specific agenda.
Oh, and the comments were even worse. Can’t believe how many people think Harrison Barnes had (without question) a MUCH better season than Waiters. Some people just don’t know what’s going on.
Speaking of Minnesota, it will be very interesting to see what kind of offers Pekovic gets. For the right price, I would bring him in. Then Andy could move to the bench and backup Tristan – hopefully preventing him from sustaining another season-ending injury
That’s one thing Mike Brown had going for him during his tenure – no season-ending injuries for Andy. Won’t be so easy to build an elite defense if he spends 60 games in a suit.
I think you’re all delusional and Jonas is clearly a better prospect.
Right now, its still a tossup and all depends on how they develop.
Now I don’t mean to bring up this debate again, but it hasn’t been mentioned since TT cooled off after the first few weeks without Andy. On the season, Jonas had about the same overall per minute production on significantly better percentages. I don’t claim to watch a lot of Raptors games or have any idea how he is on Defense, but for essentially his rookie year, the guy did impress more than TT’s rookie year and is pretty on par with his sophomore year. But yes, for Woj to flat out state it was a mistake then to draft… Read more »
The Love triangle (get it? Ha! I kill me.) may be a possibility. Kahn screwed up massively in Love’s contract, who can now opt out in two years, and likely will. So he’s going to have to trade him at some point. He’s got Pekovich that he’s got to pay this year, and Rubio in two more years, so he can’t afford them all. As much as I’d hate to give up TT, because I just like him so damn much now, you’d have to do it for a top NBA rebounder and also elite 3-point range, even if he… Read more »
LAL #1, Memphis #1, our #1 (next year), and one of the Miami #1’s along with Zeller for Love. Alright. Minnesota would never bite, though.
When healthy, Love is one of the game’s best. I am not overly interested in the team making a big trade this summer though.
I’ve heard opinions of Aldridge being a poor man’s Chris Bosh. Aka, not a tough player.
If the T’Wolves want the LAL pick, next year’s #1, and the Memphis pick along with Zeller for Love, great. Otherwise, I don’t want to be trading Dion/TT + picks to get him. He’s injury prone and we already have Kyrie and AV with injury issues.
You really should not associate yourself with this woj article…he makes himself and yahoo sports look more foolish than usual with his assessment of TT not even comparing to Jonas valanciunus…anyone who would write that obviously did not watch either of them play this year…where does yahoo get these guys?
Jeff,
I don’t agree with any of the sentiment from the Yahoo article, but it also wasn’t worth elaborating on.
That Yahoo and ESPN were reporting on Cavalier interest in Aldridge and / or Love seemed interesting enough though.
It’s still way too early to talk draft (players are going to rise/fall a LOT this year due to no clear “studs”), but I like that we are likely to be top-4. Unless Porter tests out as great-to-elite at the combine, he’s a pretty good bet to be available even if we are stuck at pick 4 or 5 based on what the scouts are saying. Noel seems to be a lock at the #1 pick though no matter what team gets the pick. Scouts seem to be in agreement that he’s the only guy here who has a reasonable… Read more »
Haha, if we trade for Love, Kyrie and Andy will have another bro in the trainer’s room every morning.
I was joking but I just made myself sad.
I thought the general opinion among both bloggers and commenters was that Woj is all wrongheaded opinions and snark.
Woj is a moron. Can’t stand that guy sometimes.
Ridiculous take on Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters. Did he watch the Cavs this year? They have made plenty of good decisions other than drafting Kyrie since LeBron left. TT and Waiters are both very good young players, the team has stockpiled draft picks and carved out a load of cap space. They have managed the rebuild quite nicely and it will start showing up in the W-L column, probably as soon as next year.
The Aldridge rumor makes no sense. Portland has had terrible luck with injuries, but they aren’t outright stupid. Love could carry some weight, but that’s a long shot too unless he beats his fists on Kahn’s Light Bright and demands a trade. I still think a team who accepts that is looking to shed salary/tank is the most likely scenario. 2014 might be the best year for a team to rebuild ever between the deep draft, compelling free agency class and other teams being strangled by the punitive luxury tax. If Atlanta loses Smoove and signs Milsap are they really… Read more »