Get nasty, Tyler! Play with some fire!!
Now, three-quarters through his age-23 season, many of those skills have not yet translated. According to draftexpress, Zeller scored an elite 1.67 points per possession in transition last year; this year that is a less stellar 1.02 points per play, as per Synergy Sports. From the same source, Tyler received only thirty-four post-up opportunities this year…but he hasn’t earned more that, making five of twenty-four field goals, and losing eight turnovers. Ouch. While still a 77% free throw shooter, opponents need not respect his jumper, which lands only 33% of the time from outside of ten-feet. Of 55 qualified centers, he ranks 49th for rebound rate. Consistently drawing charges stands as his most redeeming quality, where he ranks among the league leaders. In 63 games and 27 minutes per game, he averages 8 points and 6 rebounds on 48.5% true shooting, good for PER of 11.4 and RAPM calling him the league’s 347th best player.
So how can he improve, and what does the future hold for young Mr. Zeller? What can he do to turn his fortunes around, and salvage my opinion of him as a top-ten pick? Let’s peruse some game recaps:
March 1st vs LA Clippers – Facing the tandem of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan for the first time since they broke his face, Tyler struggled in this one. Starting 0 for 5, missing hook-shots, jumpers, tip-ins, and put-backs, Zeller was also abused early on defense. Jordan scored twice early, once hammering a dunk over Tyler’s head. Later, when assessing the harrowing choice between an uncontested Chris Paul lay-up or a Blake Griffin alley-oop, Zeller selected the former, letting CP3 stroll to the basket uncontested.
The second quarter featured more timid play; twice, after receiving a pass, he looked hesitant, one time losing the ball, while fortunately receiving a goal-tending call the other. On air, Austin Carr reprimanded him, imploring that Tyler “needs to throw everyone in the basket”. And of course, AC is right; Zeller must start trying to create some posters where he’s the focal point. On defense, the rookie also played tentatively, careening from unsure-responsibility to unsure-responsibility. Surely against the Clippers, they thrive at making opposing bigs look stupid, but Tyler can be more definitely aggressive at attacking whatever his assignment is.
I don’t know if TZ was intimidated by the Clipper bigs, or certainly a fifth game in seven nights proved tiring, but his non-physicality looked appalling. Whether ping-ponged around by picks and screens, routinely being out-muscled on the defensive boards, or rarely impacting Clipper shots at the basket, the second half looked like the first. When a shot goes up on defense, he needs to actively engage the opponent and move them away from the basket; oftentimes, he waits for the ball. When setting picks, he slips away too soon, without firmly impacting the movement of the player he is screening.
In a 16-point loss, Tyler did his share to help that; 9 points and 1 defensive rebound in 30 minutes with 41% True shooting. Generally, he looked tired and possibly overawed by the Clipper front-court duo. Two of his buckets came in garbage time, down twenty in the closing minutes. This sort of game needs to become much less frequent next year. As a side note, ideally the young-big-man also focuses on pick & roll play; he often pops, but developing solid timing and strength as a force when rolling, would greatly disturb opposing defenses.
March 16th at San Antonio – I didn’t give any easy nights; the Spurs suit-up twin seven-footers in Tiago Splitter and Tim Duncan, the likely NBA Defensive POY. Zeller’s night started bumpy, initially guarding their big Brazilian. Splitter posted, then faced-up, then left TZ in the dust, leaving the rookie grasping at a Spurs and-one. Around the same time, point guard Cory Joseph isolated on the Cavs big, easily beating him and leading the Spurs announcers to call Tyler “a big, tall stiff”, a comment that they humorously back-tracked-on for the remainder of the quarter. Off a pump-fake, Zeller drove the left wing, finishing with a ferocious slam, then later impacting two Spur-drives with nimble-baseline agility, before running the court and netting a transition dunk. While also draining a twenty-footer off a pick & pop, additional lowlights existed: lacking defensive awareness allowed a Duncan layup, and Timmy sealed-off the rookie in the post, finishing another easy opportunity. Overall, I’ll take this quarter from the rookie, as he scored some points and even showed some toughness, once holding his ground and forcing a Duncan air-ball and on another occasion, picking up his second foul by rocking a San Antonio guard with a screen; the guy crumbled to the ground, but really, it didn’t look like a foul to me, just a small player unexpectedly running head-long into an entrenched seven-footer. When Tyler sat after eleven minutes, Cleveland trailed 26 to 32.
Two fouls in less than a minute during the second quarter guided Tyler to the bench with four for the half. A strong box-out of Duncan allowed Boobie to clean up the glass. Potentially due to the foul trouble, Zeller looked particularly inept defending the basket in the third quarter; on several occasions, he allowed an easy Spur-waltz to the hoop. Tiago Splitter backed-him down for an easy hook, and with twenty minutes remaining in the game, TZ headed to the pine with five fouls. He did not return.
With a tough matchup, he finished with 6 points and 1 rebound in 16 minutes. There were highlights, but certainly difficulties manning-up with one of the NBA’s bigger frontcourts.
Summary: Tyler needs to bulk-up, and get meaner. When he plays, Cleveland’s defensive rebound rate is 70%, which cellar-dwells amongst all NBA teams. The Cavs grab more offensive boards when he plays though, and over the last twenty-two games, his true shooting rises to a very acceptable 55.7%, thanks to consistently improved finishing. Finally, some of that collegiate offensive skill is shining through. Along those lines moving forward, an absolute must includes knocking down 40+% of his jumpers. I definitely want to see the 2013 – 2014 season start with TZ getting solid rotation minutes and a chance to prove himself. He hit a wall this season, and hopefully returns next season stronger and refreshed. If January 17th approaches though, with Tyler still getting tossed-around on his 24th birthday, that sentiment will end quickly. So, hit the weight-room this summer, drink some protein shakes, climb Mount Everest with a Sherpa on your back…just come back a ripped, potentially scowling, mean s.o.b. next year. That would be cool.
Not worried about him. TT looked similar in his first year. Young bigs have a harder time adjusting. I don’t think he will ever go Hansbrough on anyone but some muscle would help.
I think everyone agrees he needs to bulk up because the DUDE HAS HUGE POTENTIAL!!! . You cherry picked his worst games. How about the highlights? 1st Clippers game Nov 5th Zeller had 15 pt, 7 reb. Spurs you say? Feb 13th He had 16 points, 9 rebounds (we lost by 1 pt). MAgic game 16 points, 7 rebs, Dallas he had another double , double. ANd this last game against Heat, (i.e NBA Champs) He had a a respectable 12 pts, 11 reb. Many wonder why the hell he wasn’t put in the last 10 mins. It’s his first year only, add some more bulk, better shooting and confidence, he will be a beast. I’m going out on a limb but I think he will be better than punk Hanbrough in time.
My basic take on Zeller: We gave up basically nothing valuable to get him, so if he’s in any way a serviceable center it’s a win for the team. I agree he’ll need to get stronger, but that’s something that can happen in the weight room, and he’s hardly the first NBA center to be out-muscled inside.
Just give him plenty of lessons from Andy and Zydrunus on how to do the job well, and he’ll be if nothing else someone we can trade.
He had a super effective post hook in college. We see it every now and then, but he doesn’t get the ball in spots to take advantage of that skill and shouldn’t until he adds some muscle.
I’m pretty amazed at how good his hands are. He constantly catches fastballs, either in transition or way late in his roll to the basket, and has the awareness to squeeze in a last second layup (that usually goes in) before running out of real-estate. Varejao has this same skill.
I watch every game, most with my GF on the couch next to me. She very rarely watches though. Against the heat, she looked up and commented that Zeller had lost a ton of weight, as if she hadn’t seen him in a month or more (probably true.) I trust her judgment on that. The rookie wall has not been kind to him, and playing him 25 minutes a game or more isn’t exactly fair to him. Hope he has a good offseason.
TV63,
I agree he has potential; I haven’t flip-flopped in eight months…next year, serious strides need made though.
My selection of games is pretty random; it basically comes down to, “when do I have time to really focus on, and takes notes about Player X during a game.” Watching one specifc player and note-taking involves alot of pausing and rewinding. Maybe I just work slowly though.
Youth is on Zeller’s side but, *he is a guy that should comes off the bench and gives you 15 hard minutes thats it. I’m tired of the cavs GM and coach trying to make ok – average players into superstars because it takes 5 years and is a waste of time and money. I played streetball forever and it can tell you from an non-pro baller point of view the “Kid is not a true hardcore banger under the boards /byron scott doesnt want him to score he wants him to block shots, play defense and fight for rebounds. Get with me Cleveland.
-GBRJR cavs fan since World B. Free was on the squad………..
We have the “bigs develop slower” mulligan to give us hope for him. I’m not really that worried about Zeller. He wasn’t drafted to be a star and wasn’t expected to be a starter this season. Most bigs struggle a lot their first year in the league. Jordan, Splitter, Hibbert, etc took a few years to come into their own. The same will probably hold true for Zeller. As he develops he should be a solid asset on a cheap contract. I’m for them grabbing a center prospect every couple years in the draft. Big men seem to get crazy overpaid in free agency. Look at the worst contracts in the league, a lot of them are in the front court. Pekovic is probably going to get $13 million plus. He’s a nice player but he’s not a major game changer. I’d rather pay stars and develop a cycle of bigs. Maybe you take one every other year or you strike when he’s just a good value in the draft. The Cavs have more than enough draft picks in the coming years to do it. A Euro stash center would be ideal like Gobert with the Lakers pick. Let him develop for a few years and bring him over as Zeller or whomever approaches free agency.
The key descriptive words in the summary are “timid” and “tentative”. That’s Zeller’s season in a nutshell.
I am also disappointed, but given a few flashes of brilliance, I know the talent is there. He just has to gain confidence and assert himself. Not everyone is able to do that successfully; but I think mentions on this board of him looking similar to TT in his first year are reasonable comparisons.
Am I disappointed? Yes, especially given his age. Worried he won’t pan out? A little. Do I think he can develop into a servicable NBA center? Yes. I’d say the odds are slightly better than 50/50. Maybe even a really good center? Possible, but less likely. Willing to be patient and give him another year or two and see how he pans out.
However, I am reasonably certain that he will never be the lane-clogging intimidator that every team needs, who will throw Duane Wade down to the ground every once in a while. I don’t think TT will be that guy either. That’s not something you find in the draft; we need to acquire a player like that….the NBA equivalent of the 4th-line goon in hockey that is only brought in to scare the other team and start a fight. We should be trolling the FA list for that guy this offseason.
@grover – That guy is Speights right now.
I could be concerned with the team signing a free agent big man this off-season (including Speights), depending on whether the Cavs pick a big with their lottery pick (unless they trade Andy). If the team has Tristan, Andy, a lottery pick rookie, and free agent X…basically all of those players could have at least two years on their contracts, and Zeller becomes the fifth big man. Basically, the 17th pick from the prior season’s draft is buried, before figuring out what what the team has. I would like to see Tyler begin his second season as the 3rd or 4th big man and give that a couple more months.
Tyler’s inability to keep weight on is a huge problem. I actually thought he looked a bit filled out against Miami, and that was the first time in a month he hasn’t looked emaciated. Flu like symptoms likely hit him hard. Getting him to work with a nutritionist is going to be crucial next year or he’s going to to end up running all his weight off as the season goes on. TT gained a good bit of muscle in the offseason and ended up playing a little heavy in the beginning of the season. When he got about halfway between last year and the offseason, he started to play better. And yes, this is all anecdotal observation. I think we’ll know by December whether Zeller is up to the task of rotation NBA player. The burn this year will be good for building his muscle memory and experience.
I’m not opposed to packaging him in a trade this offseason or at the draft, because despite his below average numbers, he does have some fans in the league. Tyler and the Lakers pick for Gortat and Dudley?
Just a little FYI. on this whining over Zeller. Put things in perspective to the 2012 draft on who was picked before Zeller. #9 Center Andre Drummond stats PPG 7, R 7 #11 Center Meyers Leonard stats 4.5 ppg, R 3 #17 Zeller 7.9 ppg, R 5.9 He’s ahead of Leonard and Drummond. (yeah he’s hurt & better player we know but stats are stats) And that isn’t enough to silence you a little . COmpare him to Austin Rivers at 10th, Jeremy Lamb 12th (in and out of D-League), John Henson 14th stats 5ppg, 4 R: Maurice Harkless at 15th 6.9 ppg, 4R and for the finally drum roll please at 16th was epic failed pick of Royce WHite. Why the hell Cavs fans would complain is just stupid when you look at how everyone else is doing compared to him in this draft class. Cavs did a fantastic job selecting him and developing him. He’s ahead of the majority of his draft class and I’m sure the Blazers would agree they would have loved to picked Zeller. He will get better and fans should get excited at his potential. Stop putting a nail in his coffin. He’s not done yet.
” Tyler and the Lakers pick for Gortat and Dudley”
Wow. Just wow.
The issue I have is that Zeller is well into his age 23 season, and despite four years at a big time program, hasn’t shown the tools to take him to the next level. This isn’t just a guy who gets caught missing rotations on defense, or needs to add another move on the block. We’re talking about a guy who is getting routinely beat on the glass, lets athletic big men abuse him, and can’t hit even a short jumper. There is so much work that needs to be done to make this guy a useful player, and again, this is after four years at a big time college program. Sure, I think the guy can end up a decent bench big, but you’re going to spend a lot of time on not a lot of payoff.
As for the comparisons to Hibbert, Jordan, and Splitter? What? Hibbert came in and put up a 16 PER right away. Jordan put up a 14 PER as a 20 year old, and 16.4 as a 23 year old (Zeller’s age), Splitter put up a 16 PER as a rookie. These guys absolutely blow away Zeller’s 11.4 PER as a 23 year old rookie.
TV63 – A big part of the raw numbers is that Zeller was pressed into a lot of minutes. Among rookies, Zeller is 29th in TS%, 11th in REBR, and 21st in PER. And this is as one of the oldest players in the draft, who should have been one of the most polished.
Basically the CAVS got the 2nd best center this draft class had to offer. And he’s healthy. . So you could say… with Drummond out we that right now we have the #1 Center 2012 draft class. Not too shabby
@Steve This is about the 2012 Rookie class I’m specifically commenting about. That was made very clear. You are the one inserting veterans Hibbert, Jordan, Splitter making this a strawman’s debate now because you changing the argument. Of course he cannot compare to them. That was never the issue. I’m taking stats from ESPN NBA. on rookies. They didn’t mention the age of rookies in their stats. Don’t know why it wasn’t included. Look Steve, anyone can pull stats to make a person look bad or good. Just want to see a balance here. That’s all. Not everyone views Zeller a wash in the overall picture throughout the NBA on this 2012 rookie class. . Again when it all said and done at the end of this season, Zeller will be looked at as big positive not some failure. like some of these Negative Nancy’s on here.
TV63 – That is one warped viewpoint. Drummond, despite the injury, has easily provided much more value this season than Zeller. And is almost certainly going to down the road. And, while the Hornets may be able to put a guy taller than Davis on the court next to him, wouldn’t you take him as a C? And Leonard is two years younger than Zeller with a higher PER. The only difference is that Leonard plays for a team with a couple solid big men, so he isn’t forced to play the minutes that Zeller is.
TV63 – Cory brought up those names.
And just because you didn’t bother to check other numbers doesn’t mean they aren’t very important. And not all stats are created equal. It is ridiculous to ignore a lot of the context (Zeller’s age and minutes) when looking over the data. That’s not “balance” to do so, that’s warping the argument, and I don’t even understand the effort to do so. Skewing and ignoring numbers doesn’t make Zeller any better, it just sets us up for inappropriate expectations.
@TV63-
The flaw in your reasoning is that you are comparing a 5th year senior with a bunch of one-and-done types. Zeller is supposed to be more filled out and/or advanced than his draft peers, and he doesn’t appear to be. That’s the concern, and it’s a legit one.
The nuanced analysis I just read paints Zeller as a player with some weaknesses, but also potential. Where’s the “Zeller sucks” article that some others seem to have read?
Zeller will be good once he gets confidence. Not worried. I don’t think he’ll be an all-star, but I think he’ll be a starter for close to a decade
People suggesting to trade Zeller are silly. You don’t trade a 7′ center after a lackluster rookie season. His value now is as low as it will ever be. You guys would’ve said the same thing about TT after last season.
Steve… the PER comparisons aren’t fair because those other rookie centers (Hibbert, Jordan, Splitter) were playing 12-14 minutes a game against bench players. Zeller is banging 27 minutes a night against starting centers.
Actually, if Zeller has an underwhelming season next year – his value will be significantly lower.
I like what I’ve seen from Andrew Nicholson, who seems to already have the range on his jumper that I expected from Zeller. He would be great for this team.
That being said, we drafted Zeller and he has some tools. Just need him to work on his game (and his body) extensively this summer. Give up on these guys too early and you may look like a moron 6 months later.
*cough* Tristan *cough*
@Steve “Warped viewpoint” Lol Yeah That’s why he was so damn awful that coaches voted him in Rookie All Stars. Bryon Scott certainly isn’t joining throw Zeller under the bus bandwagon either. So by your logic; he must be warped too. Bother to check? Did You Steve on the entire stats on ROOKIES THIS YEAR? Instead you put a strawman argument wanting to compare EXPERIENCED NBA veterans like HIbbert. Newsflash ….HIBBERT isn’t a rookie!! All I’m saying is compare apples to apples in this Rookie class like ESPN stats do. When you pull up Zeller’s stats there isn’t a exclusion there that says oh we can’t put anything there because he’s considered a 5th year senior. I never at any point said to ignore your stats only to look at the whole picture for balance. That means not to EXCLUDE the current rookie stats either. That’s also skewing. No matter how much you hate on this guy; at the end of the day Cavs (are going “Warped”) keeping Zeller with a smile on their face. Being hasty and getting rid of young players in the past such as Danny Green and Shannon Marshall didn’t work out so well.
Ah Dammit I met Shannon Brown not Marshall, My bad!!
It’s the same story here as it was with TT and DIon. Everyone knocks the pick and criticizes the GM, thinking they know better. There’s a reason why Grant traded up for Zeller.
You don’t build a winner by giving up on rookies and trading them for 40 cents on the dollar.
One big thing everyone is overlooking:
Zeller has played 63 of 68 games for the Cavs this year as an underweight rookie banging with starting centers every night. Four of those games were at the start of the season when he broke his face and the other was the flu. That’s a lot better than Drummond and Davis have done.
Plus Zeller is one of the few centers that makes FT’s at a good rate. The jumper will start falling and he’ll be a 15 pt/8 rb player in a couple years.
Yes Thank you $(akaBill) Another stat for thought for this Rookie Class. Zeller was ranked #8 Nov 2012 Rookie Ladder and #5 yes 5!! Jan 2013 Rookie Ladder. He just recently missed top 10 Rookie Ladder March 6th coming in I believe at 12th behind Harrison Barnes. NOt too shabby!
I think all Cavs are rooting for Zeller. I was near the floor at a recent Cavs game and he was so thin that it just wasn’t fair pitting him against established NBA (No Boys Allowed) posts. His body language reveals that he knows he is overmatched and plays with the effort of one who knows he’s defeated. My problem with Zeller coincides with streetballin’ GBRJR (above) – “He aint no banger.” If you ranked NBA players by their toughness he would be at the bottom of the league. You can never win with a starting post like that. My hope is that he becomes a backup that can hold the line. If he lasts 7-8 years he may grow into a starter. But the Cavs aren’t going anywhere in any playoffs with Zeller playing a prominent role. We need bruisers.
You can manipulate stats however you want to make your case. Would Zeller’s PER be higher than it is if he was playing solely against reserves and less minutes? Probably. He wasn’t supposed to be playing 27 minutes a night. He wasn’t supposed to be starting. They really don’t have an option other than starting Speights. I still don’t think this is a lost season. Tristan’s development has been phenomenal since last season. My only regret is that he isn’t getting more touches with Dion and Kyrie out.
Not worried, we can always plug in Greg Oden for 40 mins a game
For those who say TZ looks similar to TT in his first season, that isn’t true. While both looked mostly lost in their first season, TT never got pushed around and bullied like TZ does. Despite TT`s first year struggles he still was physical and tried to dunk everything, although he often got those attempts blocked.
One more thing…while TZ can bulk up, it will probably be difficult to make him tougher. That has nothing to do with the weightroom…that’s a mentality.
$/Bill – Since 2000, here is the list of guys who qualify as a C and have 600 starts (about 8 seasons, close enough to a decade)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2001&year_max=2013&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=gs&c1comp=gt&c1val=600&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=per
Which guy does Zeller remind you of?
And, of course, Zeller’s PER off the bench was only a tick higher, and still nowhere near the three names mentioned above. Sure, Zeller’s been healthy, which is all fine and dandy, but the value he’s provided pales compared to those two. You’re really reaching to find something there. And again, with the expectations that are out of control. Six C this year are getting 15 and 8. It’s not easy to do.
TV63 – I can barely understand what you’re trying to say. I didn’t initiate the Hibbert comparison, and I compared Zeller to Hibbert’s rookie year No one is excluding any stats, but we have to have the proper context for them. Looking at simply points and rebounds is not that useful. We need to account for the fact that Zeller is quite old for a rookie and that most of his numbers are a function of opportunity, not skill. His rate and per possession stats tell us that. And, I’ve never said to get rid of the guy. We’re pretty much stuck with him. No one is going to give you much for him anyway (and if you can only get 40 cents on the dollar, maybe you’ve mistaken how valuable your dollar actually is). But these predictions of starting for a decade and 15 and 8 are sky high, and so out of line with what he’s shown so far. We need to curb those.
Steve- Zeller reminds me most of Zydrunas. Not a banger but a guy that relies on a quality 15 foot jumper while making FT’s. A center that can spread the floor a bit.
Zeller can shoot the mid-range J. He did it in college. He’s been better in the second half of the season. It’s not a skill thing, just a confidence thing.
You don’t have to be a punishing force down low to be a 15/8 guy. Zydrunas put up those numbers and Zeller can too. As our other young guys develop, and we get a real SF, that shot will open up and TZ can knock it down.
$Bill – the only thing TZ has in common with Ilgauskas is he’s a 7 footer. He’s nowhere close to the shooter, offensive rebounder, or low post player that Z was. Those comparisons really need to stop until he proves something in the NBA because his tarheel accomplishments don’t mean anything.