No major content this morning, and so far it’s a slow news day for the Cavs. So we’re mailing it in. Open lines today, Cavalier fans. We could talk about unheralded gems in the draft, Shaun Livingston and his thoughts that there will be a bidding war for his services, your favorite Boobie Gibson memory, or the symbiosis between narrative and narrative structure in literature and blog posts. Carpe diem, my friends.
Pass it around:
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Kobe’s severe ankle sprain is potentially big news for the Cavs.
Will the Cavs actually keep any second round pick them make over the next four years?
I see the Cavs starting a trend of draft and stash this year, especially with second rounders. I’d love to see Brazil’s Lucas Nogueira fall to one of the Cavs’ second round slots. NBAdraft.net has them taking him with the Heat’s 30th pick on their latest mock draft.
I do agree that Livingston has earned himself a bigger contract, I still don’t think it will be too hard for the cavs to retain him. Teams won’t be bringing him in to be a starter, so everyone is going to be offering him backup PG money. With so many teams strapped for cash because of the CBA, smart teams will stray away from overpaying reserves. Our competition would be teams with not-so-great PGs with decent cap space who have been historically terrible at using their cap space (so basically just Detroit).
I think we went through the same ordeal last year when we heard that teams were going to go after Gee (ex. the Suns offering him something like 4 yrs/15 million) which never happened. The same will probably happen with Livingston.
@Jon – just read about Kobe’s ankle. Hopefully he can get back on the court soon. I wonder if the Lakers will run an offense through Howard now.
Tom
Luckily, Gasol might be back next week, and Howard is playing better. Both Utah and Houston have difficult schedule to finish up with. Still, it will be tough for them to hold on to the final spot. Darnit, we’ve got plans for that pick!!! lol
Fortunately, their next three games are at Pacers (probably a loss anyway), Kings, and at Suns. If Kobe misses all three, Accuscore simulations only drops the percentage of the Lakers making the playoffs from 71% to 69%. The Kings and Suns are very winnable without Kobe.
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/55778/lakers-may-have-to-move-on-without-kobe
Is it time to bring Sasha Kahn over?
I think the fact that Livingston realizes he fits our system and have good peices around him will help us retain his services. Not that he’ll give us a ‘discount’ but I don’t think many teams will be that interested in a backup PG who still has questionable knees, and the fact that he fits our system and has shown it makes him worth the Cavs keeping for a reasonable price. On the other hand, there are a few PG’s in the draft who we could turn to with our 3rd pick if he does walk.
Another minor thought, Livingston can help Oden on the mental side of his game coming back after serious knee injuries. Not that the injuries are similar, but the circumstances are comparable and as a player who’s gone through it, he may be able to help Oden get back in form with confidence.
Do you believe that Nerlens is similar to the player that Thabeet was in college (who was drafted second overall)?
no not at all noel is 100 times better athlete he is also not a terrible ball handler or passer for a big i think from the granted limited i saw gobert reminds me more of thabeet
Screw Oden, draft nerlens.
Spots – sure, teams will probably not start Livingston, but they will likely expect to play him more than the Cavs, with established young players who should be getting plenty of run at both guard spots. Now, if you’re expecting Kyrie to continue to get beat up and miss a lot of time, and need to cover for him, sure, pay extra for Livingston, but then I think we have a bigger problem to deal with.
Luis – not even close. Noel was one of the best players in college basketball this year and still hasn’t turned 19. At 18, Thabeet didn’t even play college ball until his age 19/20 season and put up 6 and 4.
If everything broke right for the Cavs:
1) Oden signs and is able to play 20 mins a night and stay healthy
2) AV comes back strong and plays 65+ games and stays healthy
3) They’re able to re-sign Livingston and Ellington to manageable contracts
4) The ping pong balls bounce right and they have a shot at Porter or Bazz
5) Tyler adds some bulk and gets to come off the bench in a less demanding role
6) Kyrie stays healthy enough to play most of the games next year
7) Dion and TT don’t regress
What’s the range of expectations? What’s the high end? Granted this assumes a ridiculously best case scenario that is unlikely to happen, but would this all just make them a low-seeded playoff team? Or is the ceiling higher?
If all those things hold true and we assume that our young guys continue to improve (which is a reasonable expectation), then yes, we are a playoff team. IF Dion becomes a beast, Porter/Bazz play and develop better than expected then we are a mid tier playoff team. continued growth after next season and a key FA pick-up (or two) and we can be a higher tier playoff team – with the ‘right’ FA then possibly a contender in 2015.
If Speights opts out and Livingston finds an interested suitor and leaves, the Cavs may well be looking at using this draft just to replace their second unit, They will be hard pressed to even keep running in place with the current squad replacing a group of savvy vets with raw rookies. If the picks are high enough, they could even end up paying those rookies as much money as they would’ve had to pay those vets in order to re-sign them. Walton was useless working with a group of developmental players before the arrival of the current bench bunch. The bigs from this draft are overall multiyear projects and the wings will also take years to learn that they are no longer ther best players on the court. I don’t see them playing at any way near the level of the current bench for several years.
I’m a big believer in Grant and his plan to keep MAX CAP space availability, but Livingston, Ellington and Walton might be key players that the Cavs need to retain to keep the team’s development moving forward. That may even be wise, at the cost of saving enough room for the Great FA Migration of 2014.
All that being said another fly in the ointment could be drafting Noel, if the opportunity is there. Do the Cavs really want to count on a highly developmental player, with a bad knee? Not a big problem by itself but keeping in mind Kyrie and Andy’s injury histories, the possibility of adding Oden and keeping any or all out of Livingston, Walton and Gibson and the Cleveland Clinic might have to hire more staff just to deal with the Cavs injuries next year. That would be half a roster with high injury potential. At what point does that become something to consider, prior to making any moves?
Very astute observations, JAG. Furthermore, here’s the risk with Noel: he’ll be a rookie for the next two years. He won’t get a camp next year, he won’t even be at full strength until about this time next year (even if he comes back “early”). So basically, the Cavs will have two first round rookies in 2014. Now, given the amount of picks the Cavs have in this year’s draft, and the depth of it, this might not be the worst thing in the world. If they draft Noel, they can afford to take a keeper high in the second round and a draft and stash guy with their other high second rounder as well. But given the unwillingness of the Cavs to wait a year for Valanciunas, I doubt Gilbert and Grant are going to want to wait a year for Noel.
That being said, ACL guys often come back better shooters because they can’t work on anything else on the court while they’re rehabbing. It could help his development in the long term.
“Livingston, Ellington and Walton might be key players that the Cavs need to retain to keep the team’s development moving forward. ”
This is ludicrous. Whether or not these guys are back will not matter at all on the development of the Cavs. The Cavs will go as far as Kryie, Dion, TT, 2013 draft pick plus whatever free agents we sign over the next two offseasons. The idea that the Cavs future depends on 3 decent but hardly irreplaceable castoffs is crazy.
At this point, the most realistic scenario is Ellington and Livingston coming back. I don’t see either Walton or Speights being here next year. I think they sign Oden in the summer as well. As for the draft, I can honestly say I have no idea, mainly because the Cavs have “surprised” us each if the last two years. If one looks at college PER for a sign, the 7-footer from Gonzaga and Cody Zeller both have PER’s over 30…FWIW…
Im getting excitd about a possible Otto Porter/Bazz and Kelly Olynyk fjrst roundbut if we went center 1st (Noel, Len (eh)) then I’d like to see a Dario Saric at 16.
Thanks Jim and Steve. I was just a bit worried because before Thabeet was drafted Jim Calhoun said he was one of the most dominant centers to play the game, and although Nerlens put up better freshmen numbers, Thabeets Sophmore and Jr year look similar to what Nerlens has done. I have faith that Grant will pick the right player, but was just curious about what you guys thought.
JAG – brilliant comment. Really, it sums up my fears of this draft.
Evil Genius, it’s too much to ask that all of that falls into place. Realistically, you (or I) shouldn’t assume the worst either – reality falls someplace in between.
I know it’s not realistic, but given that it’s a slow mailbag day, I was curious to see what opinions were for the ceiling for this team if everything went favorably.
I wonder why it’s assumed in the article that there will be much higher bidders than the Crabs? He’s been great for the young guards, we aren’t spending much on guards b/c of the rookie contracts of Dion and Kyrie and Scott loves him. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he ended up resigning here on a 3-year/7-8mill contract, unless he just hates living in Cleveland.
And whatever happened to Milan Macvan (Sleeper according to Fraschilla) or Ejike Ugboaja (The African JJ Hickson, anyone?)?
And I posted this on FTS, but figured I’d share the wealth:
Since we all clearly have nothing to do—here is a link that is great news for #tankstrong-ers and #0tto-ers out there:
http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS
Thus far, the Cavs have had the 3rd easiest schedule in the NBA, meaning we play a lot of really good teams down the stretch without Kyrie—I smell a 5 or 6 game slide coming up here.
This slants toward WC teams because the East is trash, but the Jazz have played almost the easiest schedule so far of Western Conference teams, so they have a tough road ahead.
The Lakers have played the 6th most difficult schedule in the league so they have some statistically easier games coming up.
Nawlins, Philly, Minny, (Nut)Sactown and Phoenix (all teams we need to win) have played significantly harder schedules than the Cavs, which hopefully means that they have some easier and therefore winnable games against one another coming up.
Take it or leave it.
My Big Board:
1. Victor Oladipo. The dude is so nasty I just want to see him play on our team. He’s crazy athletic and never stops running. He’d be so much fun to watch run the fast break with Neon Dion and K Swirves
2. Nerlens Noel. Yeah he’s got a f*cked up knee but he’s got so much potential. Maybe like Amare Stoudamire type game. He probably will have trouble guarding big centers, at least at first, but he will make up for it by his tenacious scoring.
3. Cody Zeller. He’d be exciting to watch play next to his older brother. Just kidding… that’d be awful. One is plenty.
4. Otto Porter. Seems like he could be comparable to a Danny Granger type player. That’ d be alright.
I don’t really want anyone else.
What do you guys think?
Uhhhhhh $, Nerlens Noel is supoer raw offensively, like raw to the point that I feel like I could beat him at HORSE. That’s not too say I don’t like him. He moves defensively amazingly well and defends the rim. I see him having aspects of Tyson Chandlers game and aspects of Ben Wallace’s game (I can’t think of anyone other than Wallace who moved as well on pick and rolls). The knee injury could leave him limited but if he’s okay he should be a dyanmite defender. As for Oladipo I agree with everything you said. The guy just seems to be playing faster, harder, and with more purpose than anyone on the court. He absolutely passes the ‘could you see this guy playing against NBA Finals competition’ test. Cody Zeller confuses me, he makes plays and is extremely efficient but I’m always wondering what happens when he’s playing against better athletes, he might be a bit of a hansborough. I’m excited at the prospect of Noel, Oladpo, or Porter, but the 3.6% chance of winning the lotto have be hoping we don’t end up with Poythress as our first.
Count me as one who thinks we need to retain a significant portion of the bench bunch. Theses are the guys that are making the difference. But if we get a bunch of guys who don’t know how to play, the Livingston and Walton, in particular, will be useless if surrounded by guys who don’t know how to play.
As for the stretch run, nice post on the schedules. I think we are a bottom 5 team w/out Kyrie playing much. That will give us a chance to either get lucky (draft Noel) or have a decent shot at Shabazz or Porter if the balls don’t bounce our way. If we get really unlucky, the it looks like Len. I’d much prefer to get the SF with our pick, and then take a flier on a rim protector or center (Austin, Gobert, Olynyk, Cauley-Stien). Let that kid have a couple year to develop while Andy/T2/Zeller + Oden play and Walton/Speights teach them to play.
If we get lucky and draft Noel, then I think we’ll look at taking a backup/3rd PG with the Lakers pick. 2nd rounders are purely stash picks, unless we use them to trade up.
@$
Victor Oladipo: I love his game and think the Cavs would have possibly the best guard rotation in the league with him. If you played against a smaller SF you could run all three. He’s relentless and an above the rim player and Cleveland needs one.
Nerlens Noel: They’ll have to get a top two pick to get him so I’d say it’s doubtful. I can’t see Grant passing on Noel if he’s available. I’d go with Tyson Chandler maybe as a comp, but Noel can handle the ball really well for a big. Big time above the rim player. Oops away.
Cody Zeller: One is plenty. I could see it being possible if they draft like 8th or something.
Otto Porter: He might be the best fit for the team. Long 3D SF.
If Len shines in workouts he’ll be a possibility too.
Thorpe moved Dion up to 3rd in his rookie rankings behind Lillard and Davis….
Keeping the bench intact is not necassary. Its not guys, sorry. If we were to replace these guys (speights, Walton, Livingston, Ellington) with D-Leaguers like pargo, it would be a huge problem, yes. But if we replace these guys with a top 10 pick, a mid first rounder, and 2 decent low-end free agents ala Miles, we’ll be just fine. Andy is coming back for some portion of the season, TT Kyrie Dion and Zeller should all be improved, and they’ll all have a lot more experience playing with each other regardless of if the second unit is new. Do I want to bring Ellington and Livinston back? You bet. But I’m not gonna blow more money than they are worth to retain them. They certainly aren’t the missing piece to a playoff team, they are simply replaceable parts of an adequate bench.