MVP-ness, part one: Why LeBron James is the MVP of the league
2009-03-24
Well, it’s time to pull back the curtain a little bit: For his MVP post for TrueHoop, Graydon asked me to give a take on LeBron James and his credentials. I replied late and most of what I said ended up getting killed in editing, but then I saw Ben Q. Rock over at Third Quarter Collapse post the full transcript of what he sent to Graydon, and I realized I can do the same. There will be a post dealing specifically with Wade and the issue of defense sometime in the near future.
I actually run the MVP race for SLAM online , so you can check that out if it fits your fancy. But here’s a take just for you guys:
For me, there are three major factors to consider in an MVP race, and if you’re comparing two guys two out of three takes it (all of this assumes we’re talking about the best player on a team):
1. Size of Role On Team: Does the offense run through this guy on every play? Is he a good cog in a pre-existing system or is the system built around him? Defensively, is he hidden on the wings or is he in the middle? In crunch-time, is he the guy who’s the definitive difference between a win and a loss? (This one favors guys like Wade and LBJ and doesn’t work as well for guys like Kevin Garnett last year.)
2. Efficiency in performing role: Is this guy gunning for stats, or is he doing it all efficiently? Does he put in a commitment to his defensive role every night? How much does he turn the ball over? Does he choke the offense? For this one, TS% and turnover rate are the main things I look at.
3. Success of Team. Pretty self-explanatory.
If you’ve got two of three, you get it, which kind of explains itself: If you’re performing more efficiently than a guy putting up bigger numbers on a worse team, it’s reasonable to infer you’d be hurting the success of a team if you were shooting more with less efficiency, and the same goes for a guy with a bigger role on a better team. However, if you’re both doing more and doing it more efficiently than another guy, I think you can say the reason his team isn’t as good isn’t the best player’s fault.
And yeah, LeBron James is the MVP this year, and it’s really not all that close at this point. Frankly, I think Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade are the only other people who votes could legitimately go to if the season ended today.
Just quickly:
-In terms of role on team, only Dwyane Wade creates more points (Points+Ast*2) than LBJ, and it’s by a 2 point gap, with Wade playing many more crunch minutes , which are huge in terms of numbers. Add all that to what LeBron does on the boards and on the defensive end.
-When you look at +/-, it’s LeBron, CP3, and everyone else, with those two accounting for a positive value of 23.2 points per 100 possessions. When LeBron is off the floor, the Cavs are a -9.6 team. That would make them the worst team in the league. The second-best player on the team was dumped by the Bucks this off-season, and the Bucks weren’t lighting the world on fire when Mo Williams was their second-best player. The Cavs’ starters alone have missed 51 games this season. And this is the team with the best record in the NBA.
-In terms of efficiency, he’s on pace to set a PER record, and he’s got Kobe and Wade beat fairly handily in terms of TS%, with a turnover rate better than Wade’s, and on a per-possession basis his assist ratio is better than either of theirs.
-And in crunch time, LeBron’s numbers are better than anyone else’s (In “clutch” situations, he averages what would extrapolate to 53.2/13.5/12.1 on 53%/44.4%/85% shooting), and more importantly the Cavs are the 2nd-best fourth-quarter team in the league and have been absolutely phenominal in clutch situations, losing only two games by three points or less. (On two controversial referee decisions-the back-to-back alley-oop fouls and, yes, the infamous “Crab Dribble” game.)
-And defensively, he’s been phenominal, head and shoulders above any other candidate. Just as an afterthought.
I’ll leave you with a quick microcosm: During their current 9-game winning streak, the Cavs have entered 4 fourth quarters trailing and had one other overtime game. Within those games, LeBron:
-Directly accounted for (scored or assisted) 21 of the Cavs’ 35 points in a win over the Clippers
-Accounted for 34 of the Cavs’ 42 points in the fourth quarter and overtime to erase a 14-point fourth quarter deficit against the Kings.
-Accounted for 21 of the Cavs’ 25 points in the fourth quarter against the Magic, including a go-ahead g 28-foot three with the Cavs trailing with 47 seconds to go.
-Against the Blazers, accounted for the Cavs’ final 17 points, not including two Mo Williams free throws on an intentional foul to end the game.
This is the team with the best record in the league, and it’s almost entirely because LeBron is having an absolutely superhuman season in every imaginable facet of the game. I think that four players this season are having seasons that could have won an MVP award in previous years, and I think LeBron is head and shoulders above that pack. He’s been that good.
Hi, brother, please, help me.
My sickly old dad didnt read the label on the energy drink can before opening it and giving it to my 3 year?
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[…] years, and I think LeBron is head and shoulders above that pack. He’s been that good.” [John Krolik] – (Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty […]
So are you aware that the title of this article s essentially “MV Penis?”
If the pundits who decided the MVP had been watching LeBron all season there’d be no discussion. When he’s focused on both sides of the ball (depends on the game, but on average probably 60% of the time; 100% in the fourth quarter) he single-handedly takes over games and picks up W’s. Every basketball fan in the world should be forced to watch every Cavs playoff game because I think we’re going to see the coronation of the man that has a very good chance of being the greatest player ever to play the game. He’s already top 50 (in… Read more »
I look forward to the post about defense. I think this is the part of LeBron’s game that needs the most publicizing at this point (clutch play probably 2nd, and this does a good job on that), because everyone can see from a stat sheet that LeBron is a phenomenal offensive player. But a LOT of people (who must not watch many Cavs games) are clinging to this idea that LeBron is not a very good defender, presumably because that’s what they heard one time three years ago. His defensive rep is really lagging. And I think even Cleveland fans… Read more »
You spelled phenomenal wrong. Sorry to be that guy. I will be so pissed if anyone but lebron wins this year (even though it’s happened in the past, but this year it’s for sure). But all the espn guys with brains are saying lebrons the mvp, and so is john krolik, a god among men, so case closed
By the way, I copy-posted this from gmail and the thing will absolutely not have spaces in between paragraphs no matter how hard I tried.
Anyone who doesn’t vote LBJ for MVP hasn’t watched his games this year. It’s that simple, and if that’s the case they shouldn’t have a vote. Onto more pressing matters… I’ve been watching quite a few of the Bulls games since the trade deadline, and they’re really starting to gel. Even without Deng they’ve got talent at every position, and their young bigs seem to be playing much better without the likes of Gooden. They make me nervous as a first-round opponent. Not that the Cavs couldn’t get it done against them, but that it could take 6 or 7… Read more »
When people talk about Wade, they often point to the improvement of the Heat. Using Hollinger’s projected records, they should go from 15 wins to 44 (+29). Cleveland is projected to go from 45 to 66 (+21). However, consider that Miami was tanking it down the stretch last year, that will account for 3-5 games. And also consider that Wade missed 31 games, is it really that surprising they only won 15? If Lebron had missed 30 games would they even have 15? Then to go up to 66 would be nuts. Cleveland’s improved record is actually much more impressive… Read more »