Overview: The Cavs beat the Pistons with a stifling wire-to-wire effort, controlling the entire game and cruising to a 104-79 victory. In a balanced effort, six Cavaliers scored in double figures. Leon Powe led the way with 16 points, and LeBron James was able to sit for the entire fourth quarter.
Cavs-Related Bullets:
-Finally, 48 good minutes against an inferior team. If I had to sum up what the Cavs did tonight in one word, that word would likely be POWESMASH. The Cavaliers beat the Pistons up in the paint and on the boards, and nobody was doing that better than Leon Powe. Despite barely leaving the ground, Powe was grabbing rebounds left and right and wouldn’t be denied when he got the ball in the paint. Every time he got it down low, Powe either finished the play or got to the line, and the rest of the team matched Powe’s effort en route to an easy win. Powe ended up drawing eight fouls on Sunday, but the Pistons were the ones who came out looking worse for the wear.
-The Cavs also did a complete 180 with their ball movement, getting the ball from side-to-side with ease. 68% of the Cavs’ field goals were assisted, and Mo/LeBron/Parker combined for 20 dimes on their own.
-Great night for JJ Hickson, who did a great job finishing from odd angles inside and creating paths for players to get him the ball. The more JJ can do the things Powe does, the better he’ll get.
-Bit of a bounce-back game for AP, who scored in double figures for the first time all month. When he runs to his spots early and gets an open look at a three, he’s great. When he gets closed out on but still feels the need to get a shot up, problems arise.
-Mo did a great job getting inside and making the pass to the open man, never more spectacularly than his behind-the-back dime to Andy. His shot was also on, although the Godfather music and the honking geese after a made three by Mo is a little much.
-If Z’s minutes end up coming at the expense of Jawad so Powe can stay in the rotation, I’d be okay with that.
-I realized something about the way I watch LeBron tonight. I was absolutely thrilled with his performance, even though he put up one of his lowest scoring totals of the year. I’ll admit to having some LeAnhedonia about LeBron’s game — he makes the good things he does look so easy that I end up taking them for granted more often than not, as hard as I try not to. I often find myself basing my opinion of LeBron’s performance on how many bad things he didn’t do. Missed free throws, forced jumpers, bad passes, all of them stick in my mind while a crazy drive and finish for an and-1 just looks like something LeBron can do as easily as I turn on a light switch.
Tonight, LeBron played nearly mistake-free ball, missing zero free throws, only missing four shots, and not even turning it over once. I was as happy as a clam. A happy clam. Also, that lefty block of Jerebko was magnificent. And that play where he backed down Stuckey at least 10 feet with two dribbles, then turned and casually drained the lefty hook? Pure ecstasy.
-Defensively, the Pistons’ luck on mid-range jumpers finally ran out, and they couldn’t get anything going all game. By my unofficial eyeball count, the Pistons shot 9-35 on two-point jumpers outside of the paint, and they had trouble mounting any kind of solid offense. Rip and Tayshaun finally had a crappy game against the Cavs, combining to go 5-19 from the field.
Jawad was great when Mo was out and Jawario mania was in full swing, but I’ve kind of had enough. He’s on the court a little too much for my taste.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBYHXmPZK7w
…
is all I have to say for this week.
Wish I couldve seen this one. As a Cal alum I was excited to see Powe get traded to this team. He really hurt us in Boston. He looks a little skinnier since his Boston and Cal days. His post moves are real simple and require strength. I hope he replaces Jawad immediately. His time is up.
What do people think the season record is going to be? Im sort of assuming MB doesnt play lebron in the last game against atlanta, so that could be a loss but I definately think at least 65 wins is well within range. Freakin’ Hollinger and his playoff odds really dont like the cavs right now…
Hollinger’s playoff odds are based purely on his power rankings system which is why Orlando is favored over us, they currently have the #1 slot in his rankings. We are currently #2 and bear in mind that margin of victory is a key determiner in his system. His system obviously does not take into account our not having a true center, or when Mo and West were out, or when LeBron sat a couple games.
Given all of that, I wouldn’t put too much weight into the playoff odds at the moment. I looked at the actual power rankings and we are 1 full point behind Orlando, but tonight’s win jumped us half a point on its own. Again, his system loves high margins of victory. LA is now almost 2 full points behind us with the Jazz inbetween us. So, when you look at the playoff odds you’ll see his system favors the Jazz over the Lakers.
At times I like Hollinger’s system because it is purely mathmatical over Stein’s pure gut feeling rankings. But one of the largest flaws in Hollinger’s system is that it cannot adjust for details such as LeBron sitting 4th quarters, injuries that cut MoV but don’t impact wins and shouldn’t hinder the playoffs, etc. For instance, Shaq and Z being out hurts us against teams with a strong paint presence, but both should be back in time to contribute in the necessary playoff games. But his system obviously cannot account for this. Take it for what it is. Stats are valuable, but only so long as you understand what it is that they are and, as importantly, are not measuring.
It hasn’t happened yet, but I’d just like to intervene at this point and say I’d really hate to see any Hollinger-bashing here. He’s one of the absolute best, in more ways than he gets credit for, and Hollinger-bashing is the most prevalent sign of a maladjusted fanbase.
I agree that Hollinger bashing is just plain silly. I like alot of what he does and really am interested in some of his stat creations such as PER which really help to compare players who are too unalike to directly compare. LeBron vs Kobe for instance. LeBron rarely puts up Kobe style scoring numbers because he’s more of a team focused facilitator. PER helps to more directly compare their impact on team success. Even that isn’t a panacea stat but it certainly helps informed discussion. I also do actually like his ranking system in large part BECAUSE he doesn’t look to skew the numbers to favor this team or that because of his own preferences. That said, I simply point out that stats should not be looked at without understanding what it is they measure and how they do it.
For example of why I prefer Holinger’s to Stein’s, even though Stein had us 1st last week, Stein had refused us 1st place the week LeBron sat out because LeBron wasn’t in the games. Not because of losses occured during that time period, but instead he stated he couldn’t give us 1st place until LeBron was confirmed playing again. That is just a tantrum style call that he made irrelevant of the fact we only lost 1 game that week and even won 1 without LeBron active. I can live with us being marked down in Hollinger’s for not running up the score because it is at least a measurable argument to make.
John, no intention of Hollinger bashing. Just aggravated that everytime i look at the playoff odds they make me feel all doubtful and confused : ) I love what he’s done with stats in basketball, but as Rick just said above, sometimes it helps to add perspective to his purely stat based work. Even he points out somewhere ( i think its in the playoff odds explanation link) that it doesnt take account of injuries etc.
On a related note, could someone explain this for me: Hollinger said recently in the article about why the mavs were so low, that when he is predicting a win, he looks at who has the higher power ranking rating, then adds 3 points for the home team. Following that logic, right now as the Cavs are higher seeded, and less than a point below the Magic, they ought to win a 7 game series 4-3. But as previously mentioned, he has orlando as more likely to reach the finals. Do the playoff odds have a different algorithm? what gives?
Isaac, I’ll try to explain as best I can though I don’t claim to be an expert on his methods…
Who would win is not cut and dried ranking score vs ranking score, nor is the 3 points mentioned added to the ranking. Hollinger’s power rankings are calculated on some formula of Offensive Efficiency vs Defensive Efficiency factoring pace and likely other factors. To do his odds of who would win a game between the two he calculates those factors in conflict with a random factor involved. That is, in an Orlando vs Cleveland match-up, Cleveland’s Off Eff would go against Orlando’s Def Eff with pace and whatever included to determine a guess at how many points Cleveland would score. Orlando’s points scored would be factored similiarly. Home court team would then gain a bonus 3 points. Run this say 1000 times with a different random factor each time and you can figure a rough guess of how likely either team is to win.
If it wasn’t done in this manner, but rather hard rankings were employed, then there could only be 1 team that is 100% likely to win it all in the end. It might be Orlando as the top ranked team at the moment or as you point out Cleveland for having home court to skew the end result.
Also of note, I do believe that last year Hollinger did put his finger on the scales as it were to account for injuries and the like, but he didn’t do so until the Playoffs had actually started and the questions of who can or cannot play were firmed up when it came to any particular series. For instance, how do you skew the Cle-Orl series without knowing if Shaq will indeed be back and healthy or not? So right now the playoff odds are purely based on the hard numbers which in turn are affected as much by margin of victory as anything else. His calculated strength of schedule and a myrid other factors as well. My details above are highly simplified, but hopefully will explain his general process.
Cheers Rick, makes sense. I absolutely cannot wait for the playoffs. These last 11 games cant go soon enough.
It is finally Z-DAY!!!!!
I disagree. I wish I could watch this team for another 50 games :)
My thoughts:
Jawad’s time is up, yes it is. Powe should steal his minutes – no huge need for Jawad anymore. And, give a bit more time to Jamario at Jawad’s expense as well.
Powe does concern me – am I the only one who thinks he looks like he moves in slow-motion anymore. He makes up for some of his lack of quickness in positioning and strength, but Powe is no potential all-star talent anymore. Watch him move up the court in transition – you won’t want to do it again.
Hollinger’s PER, rankings, etc are PURE STATISTICS. Take them for what they are. The point of his systems are that they are 100% statistical, not taking into account injuries, etc. If you really want, start adjusting his numbers. Although since the Magic has been ranked 1 for a while above the Cavs, maybe it is time for him to find out why. Every so often, it does get muddled up at the top when there are 1-3 clear top-3 teams.
I cringed a time or two at LeBron’s jumpers last night. True, they did go in, but taking jump shots from 1 foot inside the 3-point line? That is the most inefficient shot in the entire game. Does that even keep anyone “honest” on D? I think not, I’d give LeBron that jumper all day long, rather than have him hit 3′s and finish at the basket.
I wish I could have seen this one too. As a Cal alum, I’ve been waiting to see Powe get back in form for some Pownage (it’s just too hard to resist saying it). I haven’t seen enough of him recently to know if he is moving too slow, but maybe he’s still not 100% on his leg. KG looked pretty bad a few weeks ago but he’s looking better now.
As for Hollinger, I love his work but like everyone’s saying, it’s just numbers. I think Hollinger also said that his championship predictions basically reflect how often a team wins in his simulations. So in some of those simulation scenarios, teams not likely to win a series advance and create different outcomes. Tallying all the different possible outcomes, Orlando would win in the highest percent of those. It may not be perfect, but it’s still an amazing way to crunch the numbers into something more meaningful and predictive than just a number and a rank.
Powe is never going to impress any one with style or quickness Dan, that’s for sure. How ever, other than Shaqtastic I thought that Powe was the most significant pick up for us in the off season. I remember how he was such a thorn in our side a couple of years ago and thought that if he can bring that to the Cavs, he would have a Horace Grant on the Bulls type of effect on the Cavs. I smell championship gentlemen, and it’s been a long time
a comin. BIG DADDY.
i will neverget sick of the godfather music or the goose eye when Mo hit a three. haters to the left.