Revisiting Free Agency
2013-03-04In December, I penned a two part series on the summer of 2013 free agency class. Click here for part 1, and here for part 2. It’s time to check in on these guys and note what is still relevant and what isn’t. The Cavs cap situation has changed a little bit. The Cavs have restricted free agents in Omri Casspi, and Wayne Ellington. No one expects the Cavs to extend a qualifying offer to Casspi, and Ellington’s offer is $3.1 million, but my bet is that his contract number will come in higher than that at around $4 million (I’d rather over-estimate than under-estimate). In addition, C.J. Miles has a team option for $2.2 million, which is fairly reasonable for a bench scorer. In addition, Kevin Jones’ team option is $788,000. Marreese has an ETO option for $4.5 million which most people expect he will exercise to get more long term money. The Cavs will have cap holds for their 2013 draft picks that I’m estimating at between $5-7 million (with four picks and many different slotting options, there’s a lot of flux). Which gives them salary commitments of between $39.5 – $41.5 million, assuming Speights opts out. With an estimated $60 million dollar salary cap, that gives the Cavs Approximate $20 million to play with. But…
We all know that the plan is to save cap space for 2014 when you know who is expected to opt out of free agency. I’m betting that it will take at least $19 million per year to sign him, unless he takes less money to build a better team. Furthermore, I’m assuming the Cavs will elect to keep Anderson Varejao in 2014, to both help lure a potential free agent, and because $4 million of his salary is guaranteed that year. Alonzo Gee’s $3 million is non-guaranteed that year, and I would put the odds of him seeing that money from the Cavaliers at around the same odds that Andy straightens his hair and frosts his tips in 2014. So the goal is to have about $42 million in cap commitments going into 2014. Without Gee, with Ellington’s $4 million, and with $9 million in cap holds from the 2013 and 2014 drafts (that’s being conservative), the Cavs will have $40.7 million in cap commitments in 2014. Whoa. $1.3 million is not a lot of spending room. Fortunately, the Cavs will be able to complete sign and trades in 2014, being so far below the cap, so they can ship out some salary to get some back. But one can see that planning for a future that may never happen can severely limit what a team can do in the present.
What does this mean for 2013 free agency? It means that the Cavs are going to have to get very creative with contracts. I don’t know how much the NBA salary cap allows them to front-load their contracts, but if they are able to offer players a $10 million dollar 2013 salary and a $1 million dollar 2014 salary, they ought to do it. In addition, offering players expensive one year deals with the promise to consider signing them to salary cap exceptions in 2014 is also a good plan.
Some other factors have come in to play too. With the development of Tristan Thompson, a power forward who will play more than 10 minutes a night is no longer really a necessity in free agency. As such, it makes much more sense to go after players who can play center, small forward, and guard. This rules out players like Maul Millsap, David West, Karl Landry, J.J. Hickson, and Jason Maxiell.
The Cavs Own Free Agents: The first thing the Cavaliers will have to consider is what to do with their own free agents. And yes, I realize I didn’t even cover any of them in the earlier iterations of this series. Of course, Ellington wasn’t playing well then, and Speights was so buried on the Grizz that I didn’t think he’d turn down $4 million next year. But it shows you what I know… We’ve already gone over what it will take to keep Wayne Ellington. The bet is three years, $12 million. With the way he’s played, he may get closer to $5 million per year from another team. That would be a hard offer to match. As for Marreese Speights, who can play both big man spots, what if Cleveland could offer him $15 million in year one, and $1 million in years two and three? Is this even possible? That would be the ideal contract: around $5.66 millon per year for three years averaged, but with low cap hits in years two and three. Someone with some salary cap brains answer this question for me, please. Otherwise, he is probably not worth paying him the long term contract he seeks. Signing Shaun Livingston to a similarly front loaded deal with maybe $4-5 million this year and league minimums in subsequent years (for a three year deal, total) would be a good answer to signing him long term as well. An average contract of just over $2 million per year seems about right. The final question here is, do the Cavs try to bring back Luke Walton? He certainly has outplayed all expectations this year, but to do it again at 33 is asking a lot. Still, he is a guy who can play both forward spots, and make the offense flow. Would he be worth a league minimum for another year or two before transitioning into coaching? Probably. (And yes, I can’t believe I just said that.)
Who’s worth spending long term money on in 2013? This is a very short list, populated with people who are supreme talents, and/or people who would be easy to move if the Cavs wanted to clear cap room in 2014. Dwight Howard would probably be at the top of it, but he’s not coming to Cleveland, and he is apparently a clown. Chris Paul is on that list, but he plays the same position that Kyrie Irving does. However, they could very easily play together, and CP3 could show Kyrie how to be GREAT. It’s an intriguing option, as Cp3 and an unnamed 2014 perspective free agent are reportedly good friends. But Cp3 will be looking for an $80 million over four years contract, and unless things absolutely blow up in Clipperland, he’s not leaving Los Angeles. If you’re the Clippers, do you swallow that contract and pray his knees hold out?
This leaves Josh Smith who can play the 3, but will also want $80 million over four years and plays the same position as 2014 Player X. If you’re the Cavs do you go after Smith, hoping you can move him in 2014, or because you’re afraid 2014 won’t pan out? Smith is a great two way player who can be electric at times, but can also be a headache who takes bad shots at times, and is not a go-to scorer.
Al Jefferson? He’s probably going to get too much money since he’s a legit center. Andre Iguodala? In the words of Bill Simmons, he’s a third banana making second banana money who wants first banana money. Andrew Bynum? Thank God for dodged bullets.
What about the restricted free agents? There are a few restricted free agents still worth looking at, most notably: Nikola Pekovic, Tiago Splitter, Tyreke Evans, and Gerald Henderson. Splitter and Pekovic because they play center, and are still relatively young, are going to make northwards of $10 million a year. Someone will pay them that. Their teams are going to have a very hard time matching this number. My bet is that Minnesota matches and that San Antonio doesn’t. If you’re Danny Ferry, would you pay Josh Smith almost $18 million a year, or would you try to get Splitter for $10 million and move Horford to power forward? If I’m Chris Grant, I’d be extremely tempted with both. I’d bid these guys up just to tie up other teams’ time and salary. I still think Splitter would be awesome with Varejao, but we’d have to take a Xanax every time that Brazil played international ball. I like Pekovic: his toughness, his ability to check opposing centers (at least in terms of body), but I just get this feeling that he’s likely to sign and retire: sign a big fat check and balloon up to 350. Though, he does look like a character from Grand Theft Auto IV, so maybe not.
As for Evans and Henderson, they both can play either wing spot, though they’re undersized for the 3. They both are players with very intriguing skill sets who are trapped on horrible teams. Someone will make a run at these guys, and both players should pray they can get off their current teams. But unless someone massively overpays, they won’t be going anywhere (though with the Sactown ownership situation, who knows). Still, it might be worth the Cavs time to throw offers their way to tie up their teams’ cap.
The Other Guys: So this leaves a chunk of players who the Cavs should go after via my plan: cheap players, and/or 1 year deals with the promise of future salary cap exceptions, or front-loaded contracts; who can play multiple positions, mainly at the wing and big man spots. Tony Allen, Anthony Morrow, Martell Webster, Al Harrington, Chase Budinger, Dorell Wright, DeMarre Carroll, Elton Brand, Josh McRoberts, Austin Daye, Earl Clark (yes please), Samuel Dalembert, Jermaine O’Neal, Cole Aldrich, Mike Dunleavy (my fave for this category), and Brandan Wright; and (if Livingston leaves) Randy Foye, Jarrett Jack, Devin Harris, Beno Udrih…
Final Thoughts: I’ve been giving a lot of consideration to Mallory’s ideas from Friday. While I don’t think that signing Iguodala is the right answer, the Cavs cap situation in 2014 allows one max player, and not multiple. This may not be ideal… The answer might be to trade in the 2013 draft. My trade? Both draft picks in 2013, plus a 2015, and Alonzo Gee and Tyler Zeller for? Jared Dudley and Marcin Gortat. Gortat’s contract doesn’t go past 2014, and Jared Dudley’s is uber reasonable for one of the best wing defenders in the league who can also hit open 3s and guard 4 positions. Would the Cavs get a player better than him in the 2013 draft? Doubtful.
Update: Thanks to frequent CtB commenter and collective bargaining consultant JAG, it appears I was wrong in the Cavs’ ability to frontload contracts. Here’s his note.
AFAIK Nate, decreases from year to year in a contract are subject to the same rules as increases. The standard raise/decrease limit is 4.5% but depend upon if any exceptions are used to sign the contract. The max increase/decrease available I’ve seen listed using certain exceptions is 7.5%. I don’t think Speights qualifies for any exceptions that could allow a 7.5% yr/yr change sice he had to waive his Bird Rights. Also note that because his time of service is between 0-6 years, his MAX contract is something like $13.668M for the first year. The poison pill type of contract that allowed Houston to steal Asik and sign Lin was a result of a part of the Gilbert Arenas Clause, which allowed Houston to average their salaries over the length of the contract for CAP purposes but not their original teams.
So it appears that outside of the Gilbert Arenas rule, there is no way for teams to jigsaw contracts to make them fit in the cap from year to year, as I was proposing. Thanks for clearing that up, JAG. The Cavs can overpay players in 2013 to play on one year contracts, but they have no leverage in keeping those players at lower salaries in years beyond that.
I wouldnt be ale to be as good as a fan for the cavs ever again if they made a trade like that! Gee is the kind of role player every championship team would love… in this draft we should have a top 5 pick shazz/otto and if the lakers make the push and grab the 8th seed they could be around 16-20 pick for the cavs trade that one and the two 2nd rounders up to around the 10 spot and they could grab len the Shapazz/otto with Len combo sounds alot more appealing and prmoising then dudley with… Read more »
@Mallory- The reason why the OKC comparison is thrown around by smart fans is for the similar influx of talent, not because of the 60 win transformation. Within three years OKC nailed four picks (Durant, Harden, Westbrook, and Ibaka) and used a few others to round out their core (Jeff Green/Perkins, 09 pick turning into Sefolosha, Reggie Jackson, etc). The Cavs have a CHANCE to have a similar run if they can get one more great starter and a rotation guy this year. There is depth at their positions of need, and player with complimentary skill sets. Further more Chris… Read more »
To give you an idea of there rarity with which a team plays 4 guys in their first or second years as much as the cavs, This year there are a total of 31 first and second year players who are averaging at least 20 minutes a game for at least 40 games, and 4 of the top 15 of those players in total minutes played this season are on the cavs. There will be significant growth internally next year, its as much of a certainty as you eating dinner tonight. Are there a myriad of unfortunate circumstances that could… Read more »
JHill, I agree that PG is the most overrate position in the nba, but Kyrie has a realistic chance to go down as one of the top 10-20 players the league has seen, TT.. not so much.
Mallory- that usually means every, single player has to improve simultaneously, which is asking for quite a bit. That is not asking for that much when 4 of your 6 top minute guys are rookies or sophomores. And really they don’t have to improve, they simply need to keep playing the level they have played at for the last month and not have their bench deteriorate again in the offseason. With Andy (maybe) coming back, the likelyhood we’ll sign one of Wellington or Speights, and the fact that as a whole those 4 recent draft picks are 99% likely to… Read more »
Am I the only one who thinks Tristan has the potential to be more valuable than Kyrie? I mean not necessarily a better player but there are like 5 great PGs, and 15 more good ones. With PFs there is what? 1 great one and a few good ones but that is it, and most of them are playing center now. Then at SF there is KD and LBJ and one former great in pierce the rest of them are essentially interchangable depending on what skillset you are looking for. C is a wash considering AV is succeeding at it… Read more »
Joey – I actually disagree strongly that next year’s playoffs are in the bag. The Celtics will have Rondo returning, for whatever that’s worth. Philly HAS (note, absolutely MUST) be better than they are this year, because they’re a mess right now. Atl will likely make a big off-season move that doesn’t involve draft picks, meaning they’ll probably slip into the playoffs, and obviously both NY teams, Indiana, and Miami will all be back in the mix. That leaves the Bucks, the Raps, and the Cavs (and maybe, to a lesser extent, the Pistons) fighting over 1-2 spots (depending on… Read more »
*’no reason to think …….will bring a playoff spot’ I meant to say I think the Cavs will be in the postseason next year.
@KyrieSwIrving: Great points couldn’t agree more with your sentiments. @Mallory Piggy backing off KyrieSwIrving’s idea Duncan is really the only superstar that learned from a veteran. KyrieSwIrving mentioned Durant, and Lebron but I would add Rose, Wade, Kobe, (you can’t say Shaq because of his personality and questionable leadership), Pierce, Nash, Harden, Paul, Dirk, Bosh, and the list goes on. I’d argue the opposite that being in a position where players are responsible for their teams success early on, allows them to become a superstar and team leader. Teams improve year by year. The Cavs first half to now has… Read more »
Mallory, that is where we disagree. This team, as currently built, is going to win more games than it loses next season barring a large injury. If Andy somehow stays healthy the whole year, we’ll probably even be a 5 or 6 seed. You say the younging’s aren’t blossoming, but you must have your eyes closed. We’re about .500 in the last month, we have a positive plus minus, we’re light years ahead of where we were at the beginning of the year. Dion is progressing, TT looks like a legit player, and now we have probably at least one… Read more »
Losing sucks we can all agree with that but a Win Now mentality with a team that is 20 games under 500 is silly, I see the point of the trade I really do, Dudley is younger then I thought which is helpful [“Let the young guys grow.” They’re not flowering, guys. You can’t just leave them, throwing ‘em some water and sod once and a while, and expect them to blossom into full-fledged NBA star-flowers.] Couple of things about that statement…. Dudley and Gortat are not Stars either, and they have reached their ceiling, especially Dudley So the idea… Read more »
Adam – There is such a thing a mutually beneficial trade. Maybe not for three first rounders, but it’s possible the Cavs time has come, while the Sun’s time has not. SwIrving, you’re definitely right, but there are two problems with the comparison. First, the probability of signing someone who works on a team, especially by a good GM who can evaluate what players are doing, is always higher when the talent is reaching their potential. What I mean by this is Grant should draft Noel, seeing how good he COULD become, but where Noel is now vs where he… Read more »
Tyler Zeller is not only hitting the rookie wall, but has lost any and all confidence in his game. The off season will do him a ton of good in multiple ways imo. 1. Work on his jump shot. Even if its from 15 feet out, just making the other team account for him will help immensely. 2. Gain some weight/muscle mass 3. Repair/restore some confidence in his game Right now he’s ridiculously timid and unsure of himself (pump faking when he should go strong, hesitating on open jump shots). If he can do those 3 things after this season,… Read more »
LOL. Well, the trade parameters I described are probably the illogical extreme of the viewpoint, but I do find it it interesting how much draft picks are being treasured right now. I think the Cavs could probably leverage this to go the other way and pick up some very good pieces for their draft picks. Also, I don’t agree that Dudley is a highly replaceable player. He’s 90% of Iguodala at 1/3 the price. His contract is good and he can play 3 positions in a pinch. He’s a guy who doesn’t need to score or even to score to… Read more »
Think about this trade from the Suns perspective… the who says yes, the Suns say yes in .0001 seconds,
[Suns perspective] So your going to take two players who arent in our future plans; for three first round picks, and Alonzo Gee who does 75% of what Dudley does. Umm where can I sign, this is like the Leuer trade in reverse
My biggest issue with the trade is Jared Dudley is a highly replaceable player. If we want to truly contend, we need to get lucky (or get lebron). We’re in a small market, we’re unlikey to ever get the best free agents to come here. If we want star power or just borderline all-stars for at or below market, we need to draft them. Getting Dudley and giving away so many youthful assets would be waving the white flag, putting all our eggs in the lebron basket, and if it doesn’t work out we’d max out at a 3 or… Read more »
Don’t agree with trading away picks + Zeller and Gee for current upgrades to the roster. I agree with Cory Hughey, flexibility is the key for Grant and the Cavs next year. My guess is that there will be teams that will want to get under the cap in 2013 and position themselves for free agency in 2014. If maximum flexibility is maintained by Chris Grant he can swing a lopsided deal. The parameters of that lopsided deal are to be determined. I never imagined that the Leuer trade was remotely realistic before it occurred. Let other teams fantasize about… Read more »
I thought we learned our lesson with Lebron. If he falls in the Cavs lap or they have to move guys to get him because he says he absolutely wants to come back, so be it. But don’t build a team around the IDEA that he is coming back. I’m not worried though because CG has shown competence in running the team. I would hope Livingston comes back. He has a set role on the team and he will get a respectable salary for a couple more years. He’s been around the block and you’d think some stability would make… Read more »
-Nate comment monster ate my comment
condensed version
You dont trade young assets for old above average players you trade for stars or potential stars
You trade three first round picks for Demarcus Cousins, or a Developed Andre Drummond, or you trade three later first round picks for the first overall in 2014, you dont trade for marginal players on short rentals
Nate – Sry your getting lambasted for that trade, the FA stuff was fine, although kinda obvious… but im going to pile on… U’ve said 3 first rounders is too much, anything is too much, I wouldnt sign Dudley or Gortat in free agency, The Cavs have grown their youth with playing time this year (Except for maybe Zeller, this much playing time might have hurt him) Were drafting a SF, or a Center this draft (hopefully both) they need playing time, with Dudley/Gortat that soaks up 50 minutes a game from our young players to get better and grow… Read more »
I agree in principle that you have cap room for 2014 not necessarily just for Lebron. That’s also the year that Kyrie and TT will be eligible for their extensions. Kyrie will get the max (possibly the Rose max). It’s hard to say what you offer TT in two years. He’s grown a ton in one year. I think his ceiling is a better Waymand Tisdale. I don’t care if they drastically overpay a couple guys on one year deals who are trying to build their value for another contract. We could call them Juan Gonzalez deals. If you’re trading… Read more »
C’mon Nate, there’s no amount of equivocation that justifies any version of the trade you mentioned. There’s no sense trading youth and draft picks for middling role players and rentals. Granted Gee and Zeller may not = Dudley and Gortat right now, but they’re certainly younger and have potential. And after the amount of work CG has put in to get all of these number ones, there’s no reason to trade them for middling scrap. If he’s packaging them for a budding star or major piece, then sure. Otherwise, it makes no sense to pull that kind of trigger.
Rodney, you’re forgetting Atlanta, and you’re also counting on Mark Cuban not to overpay an aging offensive oriented center. I don’t like your odds.
JHill, thank you. I absolutely do not get what the big deal about Drummond is. He’s guarding scrubs, he’s not played many minutes, he can’t make free throws, and he can’t stop fouling. Sure, he has some blocks. Does he look at all like a player who could help a team win games on more than a marginal level? No. But everyone slow your roll on the Le2014 thing. I should have made this more clear, but I’m not advocating saving everything till 2014 and then trying to sign he who shall not be named. I’m saying that the perception… Read more »
Some of the writers keep claiming that Al jefferson is going to get overpaid. First i’d like to hear what numer is to much. Then who will pay it to him becuz dont see it happening. Niether the pistons or wizards are lo oking for a center. That leaves us houston and dallas as destinations. Houston is already paying asik 8 per. So unless they land howard I see them going after a wing or pf. That leaves us and dallas as the last teqms with big time money and reason to throw it at 28yr old center who is… Read more »
Perry Jones is a homerun??????
Why does anyone think that Noel won’t be soft like Zeller? I mean he weighs less and has a major injury now. Everyone is judging Zeller against Drummond. Well Drummond is guarding backups, Zeller is going against Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson. He wasn’t meant to play this much this year. ,,
@ Mallory, I think the fact that people would argue over four potential players at 2 different positions shows exactly why we need to hold onto picks. There’s depth, not sure fire all star depth, but building block starter depth. I completely disagree with the “fair chance he could be a MASSIVE BUST”. The only way I don’t see him being a contributor is if his ACL doesn’t get reattached. If you watch the move he moves defensively, he’s a shot blocking anchor, that moves his feet to the point that teams couldn’t target him in the pick n roll.… Read more »
We can not setup this franchise and fan base for another huge disappointed. *We can not setup this franchise and fan base for another huge DISAPPOINTMENT*. Why just throw 7 feet after his ROOKIE year? **Why just throw *AWAY* 7 feet after his ROOKIE year?** But, who is to say he can not become a serviceable rotation player over the next few seasons. ***But, who is to say he can not become a serviceable rotation player over the next few seasons?*** If he do that, and get burned, Kyrie Irving will be none to happy. ****If WE do that, and… Read more »
I have been a reader of CtB for along time now. Before LeBron left town. I must say, John Krolik must not read this blog anymore, it is terrible. I have noticed that the readers are more knowledgeable than the writers. I can no longer read this blog, after seeing a proposed trade, in which, sure, we trade Zeller and Gee, but also, two 1st round draft picks, this year, for Marcin Gortat and Jared Dudley, just to have bloated contracts for 2014. Why? Because LeBron James is going to resign with Cleveland? No. We CAN NOT prepare for that.… Read more »
Now if we could use picks with Zeller and whatever else it takes for Granger, I’m all for it.
I’m fine trading Zeller and 1st round picks but not for Dudley and Gortat.
– Keith, II agree with all your posts really. I just didn’t read the first couple.
Keith, Jarded Dudley aint no James Harden though. If that were the trade proposal then yes.
I would take either Bazz or Porter over Dudley and Noel or Len over Gortat.
Finally, we keep revisiting the fact that the Cavs don’t have the roster space / need for rookies or young players. These guys are called flexible assets. Look at Houston, they traded picks / young guns for James Harden. AND, they still have more assets / flexibility / space. It just got them Thomas Robinson.
Making good picks and keeping them on your team is much smarter than dumping the picks for veteran role players!
Second, this blog often seems to overlook the fact that the Cavs are not OBLIGATED to sign anyone to hit the salary floor. They are not forced to use their cap space.
If they are under the cap floor, the players on their roster receive the difference between the floor and our salary. This is a great BONUS for Kyrie, Dion, TT and others. Grant, with Gilbert’s approval, won’t push just to add useless money.
The Cavs have ZERO interest in Dudley / Gortat. Let’s stop that right now. Why would be kick away first rounders, which are now MORE valuable under the new CBA, for two vets without upside? Who comes with that stuff…
Shipping that #7 pick is effectively shipping Bazz, Len, no? Trading last years #11, and 2 firsties in this draft is a lot for Dudley and Gortat. Dudley can play but he’s little more than a role player. Trading 1 old center on the decline of his career for 1 rookie center just starting his career out doesnt make sense, especially when you are adding 2 other firsties and a second, and your other center is a player most feel is better at the 4 and is coming back from a paper mache quad and a blood clot.. Selling on… Read more »
Holy cow! Cavs have 52 pts with 8 minutes left in first half!
Are you actually advocating giving up a very high lottery pick and then ANOTHER pick in the first round and then one more pick for good measure for two role-players, one of which we would lose after a year? And then we give them a young first-rounder we drafted on top of that after 3/4 of a season playing? That trade is just so, so bad thankfully Chris Grant has never had such ideas even in his darkest opium-induced nightmares.
Or (given how tonights game started) maybe they should just give Speights a deal to be the starting C.
None of these FA’s seem all that enticing. It may be boring, but it sure seems like staying the course is the best course of action. Not to beat a dead horse, but this team is playing .500 ball since the beginning of the year, even better since the Memphis Two and Livingston came. This is all without arguably their best or second best player (AV) who was having an all-star caliber season before he went down. I agree with most of the rest of the comments that Nate’s Phoenix trade is ludicrous. I like to think the man who… Read more »
Jon –
I agree – like I said, maybe the Gortat trade falls a little short of what they’d hopefully get. But the idea works nicely – it fills both of the major team needs without giving up too much youth. The Cavs just don’t have the roster space/need for more 22 year olds.
Mallory,
I’m not against trading picks in principle, but I think 3 first rounders is too much for Gortat and Dudley. I think some of our picks should be used in trades, in fact, since we have more than we need.
@Mallory
You dont trade a lottery pick and 2 other first round picks for roll players because you’re afraid of drafting a bust. Honestly role players are not incredibly difficult to find in the league and certainly not worth giving up assets that have the potential to turn into star players (or at least well above average players).
As much as I like Marreese when he plays smart basketball, he just doesn’t play with his head enough to warrant keeping him. Since his hot start, he as gone back to his jump shooting tendencies. He has been this way his whole career so I don’t see it ending anytime soon. He is a fine for 4 or 5 mil, but he is too much of a chucker to be a piece of a championship team. Zeller has struggled mightily with his frame and general soft play, but I think he can still be a very solid backup center… Read more »
Agree with Vedwin. Lunacy. Gortat and Dudley aren’t great players, they are decent players who are guiding the suns to a terrible record and have 0 expectation of future growth. Jared dudley is losing minutes for crying out loud. Don’t get me wrong, Dudley would look good in a cavs uniform, but throwing away Zeller, gee, a nice lottery pick and another 1st in a promising draft to get him is crazy. Seems like you and mallory have been talking too much. Don’t worry, with internal improvement and a little health the cavs will make the playoffs next year, we… Read more »
Venwin – You’re right to a certain degree – like I said above, the possibilities of a high draft pick make us all lick our chops. But what happens if the pick flops? Everyone freaked out when I proposed keeping Ramon Sessions instead of getting assets for him – how is playing the lottery any different? The reward is high, but the risk is equally high and has massive repercussions. The Cavaliers are NOT in need of a home run anymore. Maybe the Gortat trade doesn’t work, because he’s only a few years worth of play, but this insistence that… Read more »
I think most would agree that, provided we keep the bench together, we probably have a playoff team next year. Does it matter if we are mediocre right now? I’m not sure how 1 year of Gortat helps this team in anyway beyond next year, if that. Especially with what Chris Grant has shown with the Dion and Tristan picks, throwing away a lottery pick for the chance to pay Jared Dudley 4 mill+ for the next 3 years and Gortat 7 mill next year seems like lunacy.
Depends on where the picks are, it’s true. If it’s the Miami first rounder… Who cares? The Cavs have two 2nd rounders a few picks later. If it’s LA’s, then it’s more valuable. If lottery the pick is in the top 3, then we’re talking. If it’s #7, eh… ship it. But 3 first rounders is probably a bit much. 2 first rounders should do it. Might even be able to get away with selling them on Sacramento’s pick…
I like Dudley, but Gortat isn’t playing so well this year and there are a lot of center prospects in this year’s draft class. We have Andy to fill in until Zeller or whoever we draft develops. We’ll be better next year, but not ready to contend, so we shouldn’t throw away so many assets for a year of an underachiever like Gortat. Before I said we shouldn’t give away 2 2013 first rounders, but now I’m thinking 2 first rounders overall is too many. If we were almost-contenders and Gortat and Dudley put us over the top, then maybe,… Read more »
While I do like several points in this article, I really don’t agree with the idea of trading our two picks in this year’s draft. There’s no way CG gives up our top lottery pick. Personally, I’m completely sold on Shabazz and think the Cavs need to everything in their power to get him. Somehow, his draft stock has fallen, but that might be a good thing if he falls to number seven or so due to our recent winning ways. I’m a firm believer that if we draft Mohammad, our offense is top 8 in the league NEXT year,… Read more »
To clarify – Zeller’s production/impact (especially on D) are such that, by feeling the need to play him just because he COULD be good in the future, the Cavs would be weighing their lineup down with mediocrity.
Right now the Cavs are very bloated around the middle – there’s a lot of potential but not very much consistent production. The hope is the players grow, but there’s no promise of that…
Vedwin – There just aren’t (and shouldn’t) be enough minutes on this team for Zeller until he becomes a legit NBA player. Log jams, my friends. Log jams.
I think Tristan Thompson is exhibit A, B, C and D of why you don’t give up on a rookie big especially after less than a whole season. I’m not saying that Zeller is definitely our center of the future but I don’t think there is enough evidence available to say that he definitely isn’t.
Just to clarify you want to trade a total of 3 first round picks including one in this years lottery (that has a very high chance of being in the top 5) Zeller and Gee for Jared Dudley and one year of Marcin Gortat? That is absolutely insane. I agree that Dudley would be a great 3 and D guy for the Cavs but that price is way too high.
I agree with Nate (tho apparently as a mallory puppet?). Zeller hasn’t developed much, to be honest. Watching him now vs early in the season actually makes me think he is the same player with just a little more fear added in. He’s less aggressive and not more. Since it is decided already that he’ll be around next year, we will have to wait and see what this offseason does for him. Otherwise, he’s not going to be a part of the core going forward. Just not all that valuable. Gee has picked up his shooting, but he still plays… Read more »
i love the trade dont think i would give lottery pick but lakers and 2nd rounder sounds good
Sure. I guess i should put .8*(Dudley + Gortat) + random replacement player. My point being that strictly speaking, Zeller and Gee are not any better than random replacement players. They’re probably worse. I would take 80% of two very good players over two below average ones + a rookie who may or may not be good. *shrug* I’ve probably been talking to Mallory too much.
@Nate Smith
Seriously?
Zeller + Gee + (Porter || Noel) < .8*(Dudley + Gortat)
My response got eaten so I apologize if I double post some ideas. 1. The old CBA manadated that salaries couldn’t increase or decrease by more than 10.5% year to year. I couldn’t find the info from the present CBA but I doubt it changed much, so the super front loaded deals propbably wouldn’t work. 2. I think Shaun Livingston would be cheaper than guys like Jack and Foye. Livingston’s value is in his poise and leadership and that would be undersold on a 30 win team. Jack and Foye both have stats and cleaner injury histories so I think… Read more »
No Gerald Henderson for the simple fact that I do not like him. Based solely on reading a book only by looking at its cover.
Yeah, in re-reading it did seem like a lot to give up. We shall see what happens. I don’t give up that second pick if the Cavs have a chance to draft Rudy Gobert. Otherwise, the guys in the 2nd round will be just as good.
Also, good read and I like your trade, except I wouldn’t trade BOTH 2013 draft picks. Agree that Iguodala isn’t the answer.
D’oh. Thanks Jon. Fixed.
This isn’t to be a dick, just to be helpful:
(Paul) Maul Milsap…. (Carl) Karl Landry…
Nate good overall idea about mainitain cap flexibility but you took some crazy routes to get there. To answer your question about salaries: In the old CBA it looked like salaries could increase or decrease by about 10% year to year. I couldn’t find the new CBA but my guess is something similiar exists in it. So we couldn’t do the types of deals you proposed. I think you’re market for some of the free agents might have been a little off. Jarrett Jack, Randy Foye, and Devin Harris should all be considerably more expensive than Shaun Livingston next season.… Read more »
Loved absolutely everything in here, Nate – it’s really the best of all worlds. 1. Improve now, 2. fill holes 3. don’t bloat the middle too much (we’ve got a lot of middle level talent – no need to keep signing bench guys) 4. Get more experienced, not younger. Really, it’s the perfect plan. Also love the front-heavy contacts, if they’re possible. Speights probably deserved 4.5-5.5 mil a year, so if you can frontload it it’s a low risk/high reward scenario. Livingston is less likely to take the deal, in my mind. I see him doing another 1-2 year one… Read more »