In December, I penned a two part series on the summer of 2013 free agency class. Click here for part 1, and here for part 2. It’s time to check in on these guys and note what is still relevant and what isn’t. The Cavs cap situation has changed a little bit. The Cavs have restricted free agents in Omri Casspi, and Wayne Ellington. No one expects the Cavs to extend a qualifying offer to Casspi, and Ellington’s offer is $3.1 million, but my bet is that his contract number will come in higher than that at around $4 million (I’d rather over-estimate than under-estimate). In addition, C.J. Miles has a team option for $2.2 million, which is fairly reasonable for a bench scorer. In addition, Kevin Jones’ team option is $788,000. Marreese has an ETO option for $4.5 million which most people expect he will exercise to get more long term money. The Cavs will have cap holds for their 2013 draft picks that I’m estimating at between $5-7 million (with four picks and many different slotting options, there’s a lot of flux). Which gives them salary commitments of between $39.5 – $41.5 million, assuming Speights opts out. With an estimated $60 million dollar salary cap, that gives the Cavs Approximate $20 million to play with. But…
We all know that the plan is to save cap space for 2014 when you know who is expected to opt out of free agency. I’m betting that it will take at least $19 million per year to sign him, unless he takes less money to build a better team. Furthermore, I’m assuming the Cavs will elect to keep Anderson Varejao in 2014, to both help lure a potential free agent, and because $4 million of his salary is guaranteed that year. Alonzo Gee’s $3 million is non-guaranteed that year, and I would put the odds of him seeing that money from the Cavaliers at around the same odds that Andy straightens his hair and frosts his tips in 2014. So the goal is to have about $42 million in cap commitments going into 2014. Without Gee, with Ellington’s $4 million, and with $9 million in cap holds from the 2013 and 2014 drafts (that’s being conservative), the Cavs will have $40.7 million in cap commitments in 2014. Whoa. $1.3 million is not a lot of spending room. Fortunately, the Cavs will be able to complete sign and trades in 2014, being so far below the cap, so they can ship out some salary to get some back. But one can see that planning for a future that may never happen can severely limit what a team can do in the present.
What does this mean for 2013 free agency? It means that the Cavs are going to have to get very creative with contracts. I don’t know how much the NBA salary cap allows them to front-load their contracts, but if they are able to offer players a $10 million dollar 2013 salary and a $1 million dollar 2014 salary, they ought to do it. In addition, offering players expensive one year deals with the promise to consider signing them to salary cap exceptions in 2014 is also a good plan.
Some other factors have come in to play too. With the development of Tristan Thompson, a power forward who will play more than 10 minutes a night is no longer really a necessity in free agency. As such, it makes much more sense to go after players who can play center, small forward, and guard. This rules out players like Maul Millsap, David West, Karl Landry, J.J. Hickson, and Jason Maxiell.
The Cavs Own Free Agents: The first thing the Cavaliers will have to consider is what to do with their own free agents. And yes, I realize I didn’t even cover any of them in the earlier iterations of this series. Of course, Ellington wasn’t playing well then, and Speights was so buried on the Grizz that I didn’t think he’d turn down $4 million next year. But it shows you what I know… We’ve already gone over what it will take to keep Wayne Ellington. The bet is three years, $12 million. With the way he’s played, he may get closer to $5 million per year from another team. That would be a hard offer to match. As for Marreese Speights, who can play both big man spots, what if Cleveland could offer him $15 million in year one, and $1 million in years two and three? Is this even possible? That would be the ideal contract: around $5.66 millon per year for three years averaged, but with low cap hits in years two and three. Someone with some salary cap brains answer this question for me, please. Otherwise, he is probably not worth paying him the long term contract he seeks. Signing Shaun Livingston to a similarly front loaded deal with maybe $4-5 million this year and league minimums in subsequent years (for a three year deal, total) would be a good answer to signing him long term as well. An average contract of just over $2 million per year seems about right. The final question here is, do the Cavs try to bring back Luke Walton? He certainly has outplayed all expectations this year, but to do it again at 33 is asking a lot. Still, he is a guy who can play both forward spots, and make the offense flow. Would he be worth a league minimum for another year or two before transitioning into coaching? Probably. (And yes, I can’t believe I just said that.)
Who’s worth spending long term money on in 2013? This is a very short list, populated with people who are supreme talents, and/or people who would be easy to move if the Cavs wanted to clear cap room in 2014. Dwight Howard would probably be at the top of it, but he’s not coming to Cleveland, and he is apparently a clown. Chris Paul is on that list, but he plays the same position that Kyrie Irving does. However, they could very easily play together, and CP3 could show Kyrie how to be GREAT. It’s an intriguing option, as Cp3 and an unnamed 2014 perspective free agent are reportedly good friends. But Cp3 will be looking for an $80 million over four years contract, and unless things absolutely blow up in Clipperland, he’s not leaving Los Angeles. If you’re the Clippers, do you swallow that contract and pray his knees hold out?
This leaves Josh Smith who can play the 3, but will also want $80 million over four years and plays the same position as 2014 Player X. If you’re the Cavs do you go after Smith, hoping you can move him in 2014, or because you’re afraid 2014 won’t pan out? Smith is a great two way player who can be electric at times, but can also be a headache who takes bad shots at times, and is not a go-to scorer.
Al Jefferson? He’s probably going to get too much money since he’s a legit center. Andre Iguodala? In the words of Bill Simmons, he’s a third banana making second banana money who wants first banana money. Andrew Bynum? Thank God for dodged bullets.
What about the restricted free agents? There are a few restricted free agents still worth looking at, most notably: Nikola Pekovic, Tiago Splitter, Tyreke Evans, and Gerald Henderson. Splitter and Pekovic because they play center, and are still relatively young, are going to make northwards of $10 million a year. Someone will pay them that. Their teams are going to have a very hard time matching this number. My bet is that Minnesota matches and that San Antonio doesn’t. If you’re Danny Ferry, would you pay Josh Smith almost $18 million a year, or would you try to get Splitter for $10 million and move Horford to power forward? If I’m Chris Grant, I’d be extremely tempted with both. I’d bid these guys up just to tie up other teams’ time and salary. I still think Splitter would be awesome with Varejao, but we’d have to take a Xanax every time that Brazil played international ball. I like Pekovic: his toughness, his ability to check opposing centers (at least in terms of body), but I just get this feeling that he’s likely to sign and retire: sign a big fat check and balloon up to 350. Though, he does look like a character from Grand Theft Auto IV, so maybe not.
As for Evans and Henderson, they both can play either wing spot, though they’re undersized for the 3. They both are players with very intriguing skill sets who are trapped on horrible teams. Someone will make a run at these guys, and both players should pray they can get off their current teams. But unless someone massively overpays, they won’t be going anywhere (though with the Sactown ownership situation, who knows). Still, it might be worth the Cavs time to throw offers their way to tie up their teams’ cap.
The Other Guys: So this leaves a chunk of players who the Cavs should go after via my plan: cheap players, and/or 1 year deals with the promise of future salary cap exceptions, or front-loaded contracts; who can play multiple positions, mainly at the wing and big man spots. Tony Allen, Anthony Morrow, Martell Webster, Al Harrington, Chase Budinger, Dorell Wright, DeMarre Carroll, Elton Brand, Josh McRoberts, Austin Daye, Earl Clark (yes please), Samuel Dalembert, Jermaine O’Neal, Cole Aldrich, Mike Dunleavy (my fave for this category), and Brandan Wright; and (if Livingston leaves) Randy Foye, Jarrett Jack, Devin Harris, Beno Udrih…
Final Thoughts: I’ve been giving a lot of consideration to Mallory’s ideas from Friday. While I don’t think that signing Iguodala is the right answer, the Cavs cap situation in 2014 allows one max player, and not multiple. This may not be ideal… The answer might be to trade in the 2013 draft. My trade? Both draft picks in 2013, plus a 2015, and Alonzo Gee and Tyler Zeller for? Jared Dudley and Marcin Gortat. Gortat’s contract doesn’t go past 2014, and Jared Dudley’s is uber reasonable for one of the best wing defenders in the league who can also hit open 3s and guard 4 positions. Would the Cavs get a player better than him in the 2013 draft? Doubtful.
Update: Thanks to frequent CtB commenter and collective bargaining consultant JAG, it appears I was wrong in the Cavs’ ability to frontload contracts. Here’s his note.
AFAIK Nate, decreases from year to year in a contract are subject to the same rules as increases. The standard raise/decrease limit is 4.5% but depend upon if any exceptions are used to sign the contract. The max increase/decrease available I’ve seen listed using certain exceptions is 7.5%. I don’t think Speights qualifies for any exceptions that could allow a 7.5% yr/yr change sice he had to waive his Bird Rights. Also note that because his time of service is between 0-6 years, his MAX contract is something like $13.668M for the first year. The poison pill type of contract that allowed Houston to steal Asik and sign Lin was a result of a part of the Gilbert Arenas Clause, which allowed Houston to average their salaries over the length of the contract for CAP purposes but not their original teams.
So it appears that outside of the Gilbert Arenas rule, there is no way for teams to jigsaw contracts to make them fit in the cap from year to year, as I was proposing. Thanks for clearing that up, JAG. The Cavs can overpay players in 2013 to play on one year contracts, but they have no leverage in keeping those players at lower salaries in years beyond that.
Nate – Sry your getting lambasted for that trade, the FA stuff was fine, although kinda obvious… but im going to pile on… U’ve said 3 first rounders is too much, anything is too much, I wouldnt sign Dudley or Gortat in free agency, The Cavs have grown their youth with playing time this year (Except for maybe Zeller, this much playing time might have hurt him) Were drafting a SF, or a Center this draft (hopefully both) they need playing time, with Dudley/Gortat that soaks up 50 minutes a game from our young players to get better and grow together…
Porter/Bazz as rookies are better then Dudley and need the playing time
One more year of being young and growing together, and then you can make the James Harden trade if it shows itself…. You trade for a potential Star not two above average players one on a one year contract
But you trade for Demarcus Cousins or somebody on that level… Not Jared Dudley and one year of an overated Marcin Gortat
-Nate comment monster ate my comment
condensed version
You dont trade young assets for old above average players you trade for stars or potential stars
You trade three first round picks for Demarcus Cousins, or a Developed Andre Drummond, or you trade three later first round picks for the first overall in 2014, you dont trade for marginal players on short rentals
I thought we learned our lesson with Lebron. If he falls in the Cavs lap or they have to move guys to get him because he says he absolutely wants to come back, so be it. But don’t build a team around the IDEA that he is coming back. I’m not worried though because CG has shown competence in running the team.
I would hope Livingston comes back. He has a set role on the team and he will get a respectable salary for a couple more years. He’s been around the block and you’d think some stability would make him happy.
On that note, I think Walton could replicate this year’s performance on a small contract. Think of how much he played in the previous years. About 10 mpg since 2009 with only one season playing more than 1/4 of the season. He had to get into playing shape early this year.
Don’t agree with trading away picks + Zeller and Gee for current upgrades to the roster.
I agree with Cory Hughey, flexibility is the key for Grant and the Cavs next year.
My guess is that there will be teams that will want to get under the cap in 2013 and position themselves for free agency in 2014. If maximum flexibility is maintained by Chris Grant he can swing a lopsided deal. The parameters of that lopsided deal are to be determined. I never imagined that the Leuer trade was remotely realistic before it occurred.
Let other teams fantasize about signing LeBron or Melo in 2014 and making moves to position themselves to do so. Rob them blind in a trade. When your competitors are in the process of doing something stupid, “help” them.
I said this once before. I think that Dan Gilbert would love to tell LeBron that he doesn’t fit what the Cavs are building. I doubt if it ever gets to that point.
My biggest issue with the trade is Jared Dudley is a highly replaceable player. If we want to truly contend, we need to get lucky (or get lebron). We’re in a small market, we’re unlikey to ever get the best free agents to come here. If we want star power or just borderline all-stars for at or below market, we need to draft them. Getting Dudley and giving away so many youthful assets would be waving the white flag, putting all our eggs in the lebron basket, and if it doesn’t work out we’d max out at a 3 or 4 seed in the weaker east with a team built on TT, Kyrie, Dion and Dudley. The Cavs need to keep swinging for the fences, they’ve been doing pretty well at it so far.
After the dust settles and if lebron doesn’t come back, we can always slightly overpay a jared dudley type if thats what we really need. I don’t know how you could justify the maybe $2 million a year we’d be saving on his friendly contract being worth Zeller, a #9, #31, and another draft pick. Its lunacy Nate. I like you, stop defending this trade.
And as for Mallory’s Constant fear of the draft bust, there are plenty of trade/free agent busts as well. Hickson, Omri being prime examples, but even more proven commodities like Bynum (rookies are called bust when they are injured too) , Elton Brand, Lamar Odom, Larry hughes and a host of others do terrible when put in new situations. Just because Dudley has a history of success in the NBA doesn’t mean he doesn’t also have a significant bust chance.
Think about this trade from the Suns perspective… the who says yes, the Suns say yes in .0001 seconds,
[Suns perspective] So your going to take two players who arent in our future plans; for three first round picks, and Alonzo Gee who does 75% of what Dudley does. Umm where can I sign, this is like the Leuer trade in reverse
LOL. Well, the trade parameters I described are probably the illogical extreme of the viewpoint, but I do find it it interesting how much draft picks are being treasured right now. I think the Cavs could probably leverage this to go the other way and pick up some very good pieces for their draft picks. Also, I don’t agree that Dudley is a highly replaceable player. He’s 90% of Iguodala at 1/3 the price. His contract is good and he can play 3 positions in a pinch. He’s a guy who doesn’t need to score or even to score to impact the game. The Cavs desperately need players like that. He’s a moneyball player. Those players don’t grow on trees, but as I always say, don’t overpay role players. Well, this is a non-overpaid role-player. Anyway, he’s probably not worth the lottery pick, but perhaps a pick swap, or the Lakers pick and a late #1 in the future? That’s not unreasonable. Anyway, it’s all food for thought. Thanks for the feedback, guys.
Tyler Zeller is not only hitting the rookie wall, but has lost any and all confidence in his game. The off season will do him a ton of good in multiple ways imo.
1. Work on his jump shot. Even if its from 15 feet out, just making the other team account for him will help immensely.
2. Gain some weight/muscle mass
3. Repair/restore some confidence in his game
Right now he’s ridiculously timid and unsure of himself (pump faking when he should go strong, hesitating on open jump shots). If he can do those 3 things after this season, I think he can be a solid starter for us.
Adam –
There is such a thing a mutually beneficial trade. Maybe not for three first rounders, but it’s possible the Cavs time has come, while the Sun’s time has not.
SwIrving, you’re definitely right, but there are two problems with the comparison. First, the probability of signing someone who works on a team, especially by a good GM who can evaluate what players are doing, is always higher when the talent is reaching their potential. What I mean by this is Grant should draft Noel, seeing how good he COULD become, but where Noel is now vs where he has to be to become a good NBA player is separated by the Grand Canyon. Added a guy whose already been in the league for years means a GM who understands how he constructed his team, and the system in place has the opportunity to add palpable, sustained talent that can perform well in that situation. There’s a big difference there. Second, the fear of the draft isn’t a fear, as much as a realization that, at a certain point, being “young and up-and-coming” isn’t really beneficial anymore. I keep hearing the phrase “Let the young guys grow.” They’re not flowering, guys. You can’t just leave them, throwing ‘em some water and sod once and a while, and expect them to blossom into full-fledged NBA star-flowers. These are humans who want to feel like their skills are appreciated. They’re guys who need top tier talent constantly teaching them how to become better. They need players to emulate.
That’s why guys like Iguodala make so much sense. We touched on it in our podcast last night – it’s time to turn on the jets. Two years ago everyone said THIS was the free agency year, the year the Cavs swung for the fences, the year they became the team they’d be for the foreseeable future. Obviously drafting a guy doesn’t preclude the Cavs from being competitive, but it surely slows the process, given that will mean there are 5(!) guys 23 or under on this roster. Talk about a handful of coaching…
There’s the final point about this draft, and these picks, that we discussed in the podcast that I think speaks louder than any – this is the apex of the Cavs’ trade-able assets. Right now, this team has the perfect mixture of young players, decent draft picks, and cap space. Next year that (hopefully) wont be the case, especially if there are a ton of teams with cap space hoping to land Lebron.
For all the yelling and screaming at Nate/Me about pushing against the status quo, there’s an awful lot of wait-and-see, and only wait-and-see being preached. Draft picks are fun, exciting, and do give you the opportunity to swing for the fences. But they also often mean extreme patience, slow progress, and a win-later mentality. If you, or any one else, believes TT or Dion are stars (regardless of whether or not they actually are – that’s a different debate) does not mean Grant will necessarily get another star. And that player could, and likely would, take quite a bit of time to develop if they were to even reach that point. After three abysmal years, aren’t you all ready to stop convincing yourselves Ls are good for the future, and kick things to a new level?
Losing sucks we can all agree with that but a Win Now mentality with a team that is 20 games under 500 is silly, I see the point of the trade I really do, Dudley is younger then I thought which is helpful
[“Let the young guys grow.” They’re not flowering, guys. You can’t just leave them, throwing ‘em some water and sod once and a while, and expect them to blossom into full-fledged NBA star-flowers.]
Couple of things about that statement…. Dudley and Gortat are not Stars either, and they have reached their ceiling, especially Dudley
So the idea of not letting the young guys grow? How about Tristen last season compared to this, Dion 20 games ago compared to now, the list goes on and on, Give them another off season to add to their games then we can talk…
Statement that kinda sucks, Teaching is more important then winning right now, because building a GREAT team in 2014/15(***The year Kyrie is up for a contract extension***) is more important then building the sixth seed in 2013/14
Mallory, that is where we disagree. This team, as currently built, is going to win more games than it loses next season barring a large injury. If Andy somehow stays healthy the whole year, we’ll probably even be a 5 or 6 seed. You say the younging’s aren’t blossoming, but you must have your eyes closed. We’re about .500 in the last month, we have a positive plus minus, we’re light years ahead of where we were at the beginning of the year. Dion is progressing, TT looks like a legit player, and now we have probably at least one solid bench player going forward in Ellington. Tyler will be better next year, Dion and TT and kyrie will be better. How much goes a long way in determining what seed we get, but baring a huge string of significant injuries, we’re going to be playing better than .500 ball if we just resign ellington and walton and draft at least one guy who isn’t a complete and utter scrub.
I know the OKC thunder model is overdone, but young stars like Kyrie and maybe dion don’t need the tutelage of some all-star vet. KD and company had only themselves to feed off of and it worked out great. Lebron certainly wasn’t looking for some Andre Igoudala type on the roster to unlock his potential. I’m not advocating we suck another year, or even hoard cap space for 2014, I just want us to maximize our assets. Throwing a bunch of first round picks at one above average cap friendly role player is not doing that for me. In the end, I have no desire to “Kick things to a new level” if that level plateaus us well short of true contention.
And the fact that dudley does 90% of what igoudala does at 1/3 the price speaks more to how overpaid igoudala is than how valueable dudley is. Again, don’t get me wrong, he’s a bargain I’d like to have, but so are the last four 1st round draft picks currently on the Cavs. If we could trade Zeller and the Miami/lakers pick for him I would, but throwing in a lotto pick on top of that is too much.
@KyrieSwIrving: Great points couldn’t agree more with your sentiments.
@Mallory Piggy backing off KyrieSwIrving’s idea Duncan is really the only superstar that learned from a veteran. KyrieSwIrving mentioned Durant, and Lebron but I would add Rose, Wade, Kobe, (you can’t say Shaq because of his personality and questionable leadership), Pierce, Nash, Harden, Paul, Dirk, Bosh, and the list goes on. I’d argue the opposite that being in a position where players are responsible for their teams success early on, allows them to become a superstar and team leader.
Teams improve year by year. The Cavs first half to now has been a huge improvement, and there’s no reason to think with more development, health, and a good draft will bring a playoff spot. HOWEVER ‘turning on the jets’ as you put it will jump start the teams assent to the 4th or 5th spot but plateau their future potential. The best asset in the nba is players on their rookie contracts. You don’t give those away.
*’no reason to think …….will bring a playoff spot’ I meant to say I think the Cavs will be in the postseason next year.
Joey -
I actually disagree strongly that next year’s playoffs are in the bag. The Celtics will have Rondo returning, for whatever that’s worth. Philly HAS (note, absolutely MUST) be better than they are this year, because they’re a mess right now. Atl will likely make a big off-season move that doesn’t involve draft picks, meaning they’ll probably slip into the playoffs, and obviously both NY teams, Indiana, and Miami will all be back in the mix. That leaves the Bucks, the Raps, and the Cavs (and maybe, to a lesser extent, the Pistons) fighting over 1-2 spots (depending on the Celtics.) Throw in FA, and who knows how things shake out. I realize we all want to think as positively as possible, but I wont say a playoff spot is definite until we enter the season winning games.
With regards to adding big name/not huge name players (like Iggy, Gortat, etc.) – those are the kinds of moves that usually move teams into the playoffs. It’s MUCH rarer that a young, homegrown team, having made no substantially off-season moves beyond drafting, make large, substantial improvements – that usually means every, single player has to improve simultaneously, which is asking for quite a bit.
Generally what happens is a team, with some young, growing assets, add a few vets who bring toughness/professionalism. Those vets take some of the pressure off the development of the young guys, which allows for a nice balance. If that team makes the playoffs, it’s usually somewhere in the 6-8 range (see the Pacers when they added David West)
Guess what happens? The young guys make SMALL, INCREMENTAL improvements from playoff year 1 to playoff year 2. That’s when you see the Derek Roses really making an impact – not because the team surrounding them is filled with young guys who are all exploding onto the scene at the same time, but because those young guys, learning what it takes in the playoffs, adjust.
But getting to the playoffs with a VERY young team is incredibly difficult. We are not OKC – I don’t know how many times I can say that. There is no perfect formula to building an NBA team – just because one team was able to do it does not make it the rule. The rule tends to be the Pacers and Nuggets and Hawks (back when they added Joe Johnson…) etc.
For the record, what prevented the Hawks from becoming a perennial contender was NOT the lack of young guys developing at the same time. It was the lack of a true number one. If Kyrie is that, it shouldn’t be an issue.
Am I the only one who thinks Tristan has the potential to be more valuable than Kyrie? I mean not necessarily a better player but there are like 5 great PGs, and 15 more good ones. With PFs there is what? 1 great one and a few good ones but that is it, and most of them are playing center now. Then at SF there is KD and LBJ and one former great in pierce the rest of them are essentially interchangable depending on what skillset you are looking for. C is a wash considering AV is succeeding at it and the best one isn’t even that good in my opinion. SG there are 3 great ones and 2 of them are on their way out. The rest are either varying versions of combo/undersized or vastly overpaid like Joe Johnson.
Mallory- that usually means every, single player has to improve simultaneously, which is asking for quite a bit.
That is not asking for that much when 4 of your 6 top minute guys are rookies or sophomores. And really they don’t have to improve, they simply need to keep playing the level they have played at for the last month and not have their bench deteriorate again in the offseason. With Andy (maybe) coming back, the likelyhood we’ll sign one of Wellington or Speights, and the fact that as a whole those 4 recent draft picks are 99% likely to be better next year (barring significant injury) and oh ya we’ll probably have at least one productive bench level player come from this draft, I don’t think its a stretch to say we’ll make the playoffs.
Generally what happens is teams only have one or two guys playing significant minutes in their first or second years, so the incremental improvement of 1 or 2 is only a quarter or half that of the incremental improvement of 4 guys.
Lastly, none of this is to say we shouldn’t go after a proven veteran this year via Trade or Free agency, I think we should, and think waiting on Lebron is foolish. But we’ll be ok regardless, and valuing the ability to add a player worthy of a max deal while nothing else tantalizing presents itself isn’t foolish. We’re certainly not desperate enough for veterans to acquire them regardless of the price, and the price of 4 (Zeller +3) first round picks for Jared Dudley is exorbitant. The fact that you and Nate write for this site multiple times a week has gotten you impatient, and I understand that you’d rather be pondering potential playoff matchups now than draft strategy, but buckle in. Grant has given every indication that he wants a contender, not mere playoff fodder. If it takes longer to build such a team, I doubt your impatience will have much sway.
JHill, I agree that PG is the most overrate position in the nba, but Kyrie has a realistic chance to go down as one of the top 10-20 players the league has seen, TT.. not so much.
To give you an idea of there rarity with which a team plays 4 guys in their first or second years as much as the cavs, This year there are a total of 31 first and second year players who are averaging at least 20 minutes a game for at least 40 games, and 4 of the top 15 of those players in total minutes played this season are on the cavs. There will be significant growth internally next year, its as much of a certainty as you eating dinner tonight. Are there a myriad of unfortunate circumstances that could derail that? yes, but you should still feel safe taking it to the bank. Its more likely we trade for Dudley and he larry hughes/Elton Brands/Andrew Bynums out on us than that those 4 as a whole aren’t significantly better next year.
http://bkref.com/tiny/aAqT5
@Mallory- The reason why the OKC comparison is thrown around by smart fans is for the similar influx of talent, not because of the 60 win transformation. Within three years OKC nailed four picks (Durant, Harden, Westbrook, and Ibaka) and used a few others to round out their core (Jeff Green/Perkins, 09 pick turning into Sefolosha, Reggie Jackson, etc). The Cavs have a CHANCE to have a similar run if they can get one more great starter and a rotation guy this year. There is depth at their positions of need, and player with complimentary skill sets. Further more Chris Grants has been great at finding value (complain all you want about Zeller but I’m glad we have him over with Royce White, Terrence Jones, Fab Melo, or Meyers Leonard).
Teams do make big jumps (in the last decade teams ascending to the #1 seed in the east have improved by 21 wins that season), and for all the Hawks, Mavs, and Nuggets examples of grinding out improvements, there are OKC, Indiana (both with this team and the Artest/Oneal team), Chicago, Orlando, Charlotte (under CP3), San Antonio, and Memphis. It goes both ways and the more the young guys play together and marinate the better the chances for a big jump.
I still like their playoff chances, I’m not saying 53 win 2 seed, but I think with a good offseason the 5 or 6 seed is a possibility and getting in at all should be better than 50/50. I see too much development to think otherwise.
I wouldnt be ale to be as good as a fan for the cavs ever again if they made a trade like that! Gee is the kind of role player every championship team would love… in this draft we should have a top 5 pick shazz/otto and if the lakers make the push and grab the 8th seed they could be around 16-20 pick for the cavs trade that one and the two 2nd rounders up to around the 10 spot and they could grab len the Shapazz/otto with Len combo sounds alot more appealing and prmoising then dudley with gortat…ideal starting line up 2013-2014
PG. Uncle Drew Sg Dion SF Shazz/otto PF T.T C Andy V 6th man Gee 7th man Zeller
Dream 2014-15 starting line up we would aquire Kevin Love by trading our 2014 1st rounder the griz pick andy v along with lets say gee
PG. Uncle Drew SG Unnamed FA SF Shazz/Otto PF T.T C Love 6th man Dion 7th man Zeller
that there is a very talented promising title contending team
KyleJohnson – I like what your saying but Len is going top 8, if the Bobcats pick at #1 they could take him there… No way he is around at 16
Agree. Len is a possibility for their first pick but will be long gone by their second. There are some intriguing prospects in the teens this year with Gobert, Sario, Cauley-Stein etc. This could easily be a draft similar to 2006 where the best players are drafted at 6 and 21 instead of in the early lottery. I have faith in Grant whether he trades the picks or keeps them. I wouldn’t mind a Euro stash either. It could be a nice to have a Kukoc-like infusion of talent in three years on a rookie scale contract. I loved Grant’s 2011 draft, but it would nice to have a Mirotic coming over as a finishing piece in a couple years.
I’m thinking the maximum increase or decrease that the Cavs could give a player like Speights is 4.5% so the front loaded contract that was suggested would not be possible. There are some scenarios where a 7.5% increase/decrease are allowed by I don’t think he would qualify for any of them.
My guess is that the only way the Cavs can sign Speights, Ellington and Livingston and still have CAP room for a MAX FA with league service similar to LBJ’s, is to sign them to multiyear deals with only year one guranateed. Those contracts could be quite large as the Cavs have CAP room for them next year. The catch being that the players would know they would not be guaranteed in the second year if a major player became available as a FA in 2014. The flipside is that knowing this might motivate them to play incedibly well next year, to actually earn having their contracts become guaranteed in year 2 of their new contract. If that happened, plus a good draft in 2013, and there might not be a need to sign a major FA in 2014. Imagine Gilbert/Grant holding a news conference announcing a “decision” on whether or not they really needed LBJ to come back, after he opted out of Miami.
Ha JAG FTW! Yes!
Nate with his stupid trade is a troll. Lets see if I can get 50 comments with some dumb stuff. A bunch of people fell for it and argued. Mallory fell for it and agreed haha. What a joke…
Cory,
As a UK student whose watched nearly every game this year… I honestly like the “Value” of picking Cauley-Stein in the teens as opposed to picking Noel top 5… Noel is slightly more athletic… Which is an incredible statement because Cauley-Stein could have played D-1 football at Wide Receiver at 7 feet tall, But Stein’s shot is much cleaner… although still doesnt go in much, He is more competitive, and thicker… while still very skinny, and he is obviously taller… Noel projects to guard PF’s in the NBA while WCS will guard centers eventually… While Noel +40 pounds might be Dwight Howard, WCS +10 pounds is Tyson Chandler
Let’s trade Dion Waiters, Zeller, Gee, a first round pick and a second round pick for Nicolas Batum and JJ Hickson. We don’t need so many 22 year olds! Actually Batum and Hickson are not mediocre and old enough. Maybe Tristan, Dion and a second rounder for Mbah a Moute and Samuel Dalembert. Something about salaries and saving money + LeBron James. Where is my article?
Mo, best comment yet. Lets just trade Kyrie straight up for Derrick williams
Adam,
I’ve only caught one post Noel injury game of UK’s and I was really impressed with Cauley-Stein. He might actually climb the boards as we get closer to the draft. Even if he’s out of reach, there’s still of guys who could have impact in the teens. What are your impressions of Poythress and Goodrich?
Poythress has all the tools you can ask for but man is he shy or something just isn’t there, a whole lot of Marvin Williams, after a couple games his season I had him at number one overall thinking he would get more comfortable and more intense and he’s just inconsistent, best strength right now is offensive rebounding and put backs… Because he doesn’t have to think, just go get the ball and put it back up, he will put up a 26 pt 12 rb game one night then have three straight 6 and 4′s, of all the kids I hope he stays in school the most to develop some confidence/bb IQ, he may not be as great an athlete as he looks like, it’s hard to tell… Sorry that was so long
Goodwin Cal compared to Russell Westbrook but I don’t see it…. He can drive the ball to the hoop, but his shot is currently broken, he isn’t as explosive as Westbrook at all… Noel and WCS you can see it when they run and jump… Crazy athleticism, Goodwin and Poythress look great but seem to get their shot blocked too much, Goodwin consistently plays out of control, going to the basket with blinders on and getting double and triple teamed while still throwing up a superman shot…
That being said, if we had a serviceable pg to get every body where they should be we would still be in good shape, I think the cavs should stay away from these two because they are projects, and Poythress ‘ attitude, idk how you fix that
Ctown, I’m glad you liked my comment but it was not intended to attack anyone as much as it was to try to maintain the accuracy of CtB. If you look at the article you will see that Nate asked for clarification, if anyone had additional insight. Not being sure of all the nuances of the actual NBA CBA my post is just my take on what information is out there on the internet.
The proposed trade is a good example of the kind of out of the box thinking Grant may have to do,and has done,, to keep improving the team. To Cavs fans he flleeced Memphis, but in reality the “Griz seem to have gotten what they wanted/needed. They reduced their salary and adequately replaced the players they lost by acquiring Davis and Daye in the Gay deal. Who’s to say that any deal is definitely one sided, until all the smoke clears. Memphis is 9-1 over their last ten games, despite the original angst of their fans after the Cleveland deal. They did lose to Miami, which may be a bad sign, however. Their team, prior to their trades, had been Miami’s Kryptonite.
I guess I am a little worried about what KI will think of all this. Remember how happy he was when we got MoSpates? He thanked the ownership during a postgame interview. How long does KI wait for us to bring in some talent. Waiting ANOTHER year for player X is a tough pill to swallow.
JAG- I mostly liked your idea of a gilbert/grant decision press conference, although your quick internet search of actual facts instead of speculation is nice too.
Dude, don’t defend this trade. 3 first rounders plus two young players gets you Pau Gasol or Dwight Howard or Melo or Harden. If anyone supports that for dudley they should be fired as a gm, fired as a blogger, or fired as a commenter.
Ctown – Memphis gave the Cavs a first rounder AND Speights AND Ellington AND Selby for Leuer – trust me, late first rounders aren’t exactly a selling point.
I think you’re greatly overrating draft picks in general and greatly overrating Zeller and Gee. Look at the Deron Williams trade as an example of what teams can get when they trade a star – a young, VERY high potential PF/C, Devin Harris who, at the time, was a pretty decent PG, and two first rounders, one of which ended up being pretty high. It’s hard to use the Melo/Howard trades as examples because in both cases those players FORCED their ways off the teams, holding franchises hostage, meaning the price was driven down by lack of any real competition.
In what world are a 5-10th overall pick in a weaker draft, two late first rounders, a backup center who’s current PER is 11, and an 8th man on a good team for a top 10 center and a swing man with ELITE defensive skills and a great 3-point stroke completely out of a realm of possibility? It’s fine to disagree with the details of the trade, but the overall structure is exactly what smart teams do to become elite – make moves for guys that fit their need/their system. It’s possible to have a nuanced argument without attacking.
To clarify, if teams are willing to give away late first rounders, like Memphis did, as a salary dump, then it’s clear they don’t value those picks as much as we all think other teams do.
Obviously, if you’re the Cavs, you take that pick. Especially if it makes them better.
except Nate admitted the center was a one year rental, and his top 10 status isn’t really saying all that much, even if he is in fact top 10 which is debateable. There aren’t a lot of difference making centers in the league right now. You also fail to mention the center we are giving up is a rookie playing more minutes than he should be and logging that 11 PER not as a backup but against starters. Taking all that into account, no amount of nuance makes this trade make any sense unless you are looking solely to how to make the cavs as good as possible next year and next year alone without crippling cap space in 2014, which most definitely should not be anyone’s priority unless you think the world ends in 2014, in which case we wouldn’t need the cap space, so again, it makes NO SENSE.
I also question dudley’s ELITE defense. Its good, I don’t think its anywhere close to Lebron/Igoudala Prime good.
And just because memphis doesn’t value first rounders doesn’t mean we can’t find someone who does. Also the contention that this is a weaker draft only applies at the top and could be proven flat out wrong, no one knows. Regardless, most of the experts think you can get a better player than typical in the 6-20 range this year because it is deep.
I agree the problem with Zeller is confidence more than anything else. Yes, he needs to put on weight, but his biggest issue is that he looks way too timid. He just needs to believe in himself. That will come as he grows (hopefully). Nothing is wrong with his skills- it’s just that he’s playing like a scared, tired rookie.
Mallory really? Jared Dudley? Marcin Gortat? C’mon man… Throw those ideas back on the scrap heap along with $15 mill to Igoudala.
And c’mon man… “is Tyler Zeller going to be on this team next year?” You’re just trolling. Of course he is. Do you have another free agent idea… sign Byron Mullens for $20 mill/4 years?
Gortat isn’t top ten. 32nd in PER for C’s, 28th in TS%,
Here are bigs I would think almost any rational person would want instead of him (I used BIG to mean someone that has played the post and defended Centers for substantial minutes don’t debate semantics please)
Without Question Better: Duncan, Noah, Bosh, both Gasols, Howard, Chandler, B. Lopez, Garnett, Horford
Clearly Better:Aldridge, Ibaka, Hibbert, Pekovic, Nene, Asik
Better in most peoples eyes:Jefferson, Jordan, Pekovic, Vucevic, R. Lopez
I dunno maybe people are basing their opinion of Gortat on his performance against the Cavs in the ECF, but I don’t see any evidence that he is a top 20 big man, let alone a smart trade target that would allow a team to make a jump to the next level.
Joey Joe, Kyrie, etc.
I’m playing heavy devils advocate on this trade. I don’t nec think getting Gortat would be as bad as you all say it would be, but I’m not tripping over myself to make this trade. I do, however, think it’s the kind of trade, in the structure and thought process, that makes sense for this team. Obviously Grant wants to get as much for his assets as possible, but getting a starting center and starting SF for a non-starting center, a non-starting SF, and a bunch of picks that may or may not develop into stars isn’t exactly unfathomable.
Also it’s a stretch to call Aldridge, Ibaka, and Bosh centers. I think I’d take Gortat, at least in the short run, over Asik and Jordan.
There is a lot of conjecture going on here about player rankings, defensive ability, etc. and as the article’s author, I’m as guilty as anyone. I did some research on Synergy today. In summary, Dudley is a good defender and not great. Part of the problem is that the scheme Phoenix runs is terrible. The bigs do not help much. According to Synergy, Dudley is good in isolations and on the ball handler in pick and roll situations. Giving up 38.5, and 34.8 field goal percentages and .76 and .71 points per possession respectively. He is much worse closing out spot up shooters and dealing with off ball screens, giving up 41.5% and 60.4%, and 1.04 and 1.29 points per possession respectively. Phoenix’s bigs do not help much on off ball screens and Dudley has had to face a lot of very good shooters, so this number is probably inflated. Still, he’s good, not great.
Offensively, he’s good at cuts, spot up shots, offensive rebound shots, and finishing in transition: a perfect compliment to Kyrie, Dion, Tristan, and Center X.
As for Gortat, offensively, he’s good in pick and roll, cuts, putbacks, awesome in transition (71%), and pretty bad in isolations and post ups (45%). Defensively, he’s very good in isolation and post up defense, with a stifling 32.8% and 35% for .68 and .65 points per possession, respectively, and a 8.5% and 10.1% turnover rate He’s average at best in the pick and roll with a 50% shooting, and .96 points per possession rating. He’s also not good at closing out shooters or fighting through off ball screens. His rebound and block numbers are very solid, and on a team that values him would easily be a double double guy. He also has a low foul rate, though this may be scheme based.
Both players have positive ratings from 82games.com and are currently devalued by their current team…
Hence my usage of ‘big’ rather than ‘center’. If Bosh isn’t a center than is Lebron? Based on their starters its one or the other, also NBA.com, and ESPN.com both list Bosh as a C.
I guess the bottom line is how many guys from that list would you rather than as the token ‘big’ in you’re lineup. If I’m looking for a compliment for Kyrie, Waiters, Gee, and TT. I would take every guy on my list over Gortat. I’ll give up some muscle in Aldridge and Bosh for their abilites to deliver on offense, and I’d say the same thing about R. Lopez and Jordan on D, and Vucevic and Pekovic because of their ages.
Marcin Gortat doesn’t do anything that jumps off the page. He in the words of the Wire’s Stringer Bell is a ’40 degree day’ and as Stringer was happy to point out ‘Nobody gives a (expletive) about 40 degree days.’ The Cavs need an impact player and they SF and C are the spots that are available to find those guys. The consensus of the fans on this board is that we’ll roll the dice on a bust in order to potentially find one. Gortat and Dudley turn us into a team with the ceiling of the Pacers AT BEST and everyone is holding out hope for a title team.
Joey Joe -
I’m not going to argue the merits of this trade anymore because I think both Nate and I have made it clear that the price tag wasn’t really the point, more that good upgrades, that weren’t nec blockbusters on paper, could be major moves for this team in the short and long term. Finding misused players on bad teams could be a smart way to build the team. Are you strictly against trading the pick unless it nets us Kevin Love or better?
With regards to the Pacers, the problem isn’t that the Pacers as a TEAM aren’t good, it’s that the Pacers are missing the alpha dog. As much as I love Paul George, and I do a lot, he’s probably best suited a second-option guy, who can spot up shoot, defend, and score in transition. He’s great with the ball in his hands too, but he’s just not big/strong enough yet. The point is the Pacers, as a team, are great. The issue is their best player just isn’t that good yet.
@Mallory. Yes I’m firmly against trading our draft pick unless it nets a starter level proven commodity. The reason is simple: the best way for the Cavs to become a contender is to find another young stud. If we got the Lakers pick this year I’d move that for a cost cutting deal for a starter. Those types of deals are out there, I’m not saying the Twolves are going to be dumb enough to say “Hey Chris Grant Love for the #30 pick”. BUT what I am saying is with cap penalties being on GMs minds, we should ONLY sell high on draft picks because recent trades have shown their value.
I don’t understand how you constantly go back to your Chicken Little ‘they could be a bust’ approach, when we have shown to have an extremely saavy GM guiding our rebuild. I promise he wont be David Kaahn doubling down on PG’s. Grant has done well so far and I don’t see your fear of trusting him to continue his track record of good decision making. Maybe you just have some repressed memories leading to your fear of draft picks. Did a bully at your school always wear flashy suits and nba hats while tormenting other students????
Joey –
1. Kevin love is NOT a “starter level proven commodity.” Kevin love is a franchise player. He’s a star, boarding on superstar. He’s AT LEAST as big of a star, at least at this moment, as Kyrie. Gortat is a “starter level proven commodity.” I agree we can probably do better than Gortat, but I just wanted to be clear.
2. I love the job Grant has done – I think TT and Waiters still have a ton of progress to make before I shake Grant’s hands and say “job well done,” but I’m pleased for the time being. The problem is even the BEST GMs screw up draft picks. A lot. Why? Because it’s almost impossible to know what a 19 year old kid is going to look like in four-five years. Grant could literally be the best GM in the history of the league, be the most amazing at talent evaluation, and understand the cap more deeply than anyone EVER, and he’d STILL make mistakes. That’s just the nature of the beast.
Your bullying comment was great. Seriously, I loved it. Thanks for the laugh.
@Joey Joe: Loved the Stringer Bell reference and it totally applies. Gortat had one solid season and fell out of favor. Even giving Gortat credit that the Suns are in the debate for being the most dysfunctional franchise in the league. I liked the Rockets signing of Asik. The first two years he’s a bargain at $5 million a year and the third year he is a large expiring deal that you can sit on for cap relief or use in a big fish trade. Sadly this year there will be few if any poison pill restricted players that will interest Grant.
Grant has operated from a position of strength in all of his deals thus far. He’s going to use his cap room as an asset and not just fill it because he can. If Grant is salivating over a prospect in this draft, I’m all for him drafting him to be part of the core going forward. Some of these guys Grant has drafted will be traded in the future.
I get that the Suns deal was just an idea. Hey, we need a SF and a C and Phoenix is finally rebuilding. I’d be down for say Otto Porter in the draft and trading away the Lakers pick for Gortat if that’s how it plays out. Teams are hoarding first rounders for a reason. They need cheap, young talent they can control for multiple years.
The more I read about this Free agent class the more I’m inclined to stay away. Guys are going to get overpaid. It’s a seller’s market.
Cory -
RE: the hoarding of picks – all that means, to me, is there’s a disproportionate amount of value placed on picks right now. Which should be exploited.
Once the market corrects for guys like Speights, Gee, etc. (and I believe it will, to some degree) those picks will become a lot less valuable.
Agreed, for the most part, Tom. There’s a LOT of money this year. Next year is likely the same situation.
I don’t like this free agency crop at all. I’d be fine with them overpaying Speights or Carl Landry on a one year deal. It would satisfy the playoff push next year and leave their options open for 2014. I’m sure Grant has a one, three and a five year plan. The flexibility will be gone in two years. Irving is obviously in the cards going forward. The other kids could be part of a package.
If the value of first round picks is at an all-time high that should be a good thing for Grant in his future negotiations. It really hasn’t been brought up much but it is possible that if Lebron comes back it could be a sign and trade and not as a free agent. I just hope that Grant offers Miami a similar poo poo plater in return.