Unsurprisingly, not much happened for the Cavaliers on trade deadline day. There were a few rumors about a possible Mo Speights-for-a-pick swap, but nothing concrete enough to get excited about. All is placid here at C:TB HQ. Kevin is conked out in an armchair, and Mallory’s half-heartedly trying to beat a difficult Super Meat Boy level. Cavs: The Cat is asleep by my feet as I type this. But before we join Kevin in dreamland, let’s examine what the Cavs have going forward, since we now know what the roster is going to look like for the rest of the season.
Starting Backcourt:
Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters aren’t going anywhere. Saint Weirdo is in the first season of a four-year rookie deal, and Chris Grant will likely extend a max contract offer to Kyrie in the middle of next season that’ll make him a Cavalier until his mid-20s. The children are our future, etc.
Starting Frontcourt:
Alonzo Gee is on the books for $3.25M next year and has a $3.25M team option for the 2014-15 season. Hopefully, the Cavs will make a signing or draft selection that relegates him to the bench sooner rather than later. I think nearly every Cleveland fan has a soft spot in their heart for AG, but he isn’t much more than a decent substitute. After showing considerable growth in his first two seasons with the team, he’s revealing this season that he’s just not good enough to run with your average starting NBA wing.
After this breakout year, I feel terrific about Tristan Thompson as the Cavs’ starting power forward for the next decade. Like Waiters and Irving, he’s still on his rookie deal, though he obviously won’t get a max extension offer like Irving will, so it remains to be seen if the Cavs will lock him up long-term during next season or wait until he becomes a restricted free agent. At any rate, unless he gets a phenomenally stupid contract offer from another team in the summer of 2015, he’ll be a Cavalier alongside Kyrie and Dion for a long time.
Anderson Varejao’s future with the team is precarious, though perhaps not as precarious as it was a few months ago. Cavs fans have always seemed split down the middle on this issue, but I was in favor of trading Varejao before he got hurt, even if it meant doing so for eighty cents on the dollar. I’ve reformed my position, though: I think this last injury drove down his value to the point that the Cavs are better off rolling the dice that he’ll stay healthy than shipping him out for a pittance. Regardless of whether Varejao can stay healthy, the team needs to start grooming a future starting center. (Unless you think Tyler Zeller is that guy; I don’t think he is.) Wild Thing will be 31 by the start of next season, when the Cavs will pay him $9.1M. That’s a bargain if he plays his best for 70 games; it’s a sunk cost if he ends up sitting out two-thirds of the season again. If he does stay healthy, he also has a $9.8M team option for the 2014-15 season.
Rotation Players:
Tyler Zeller is a backup center. That’s a fine thing to be. You can do worse with the 18th pick in the draft. I look forward to a future in which T-Zell steps off the bench for 18 minutes a game, knocks down a couple open jumpers, draws a charge, and grabs a few rebounds. Watching him have to match up against starting NBA centers for 30 minutes every night is rough. I feel for him. He’s on a rookie deal, obviously, so he’ll be a cheap bench player for the Cavs through the 2015-16 season.
Marreese Speights has a player option he can pick up this summer that will pay him $4.5M next season, but the conventional wisdom dictates that he’ll probably turn that down to become an unrestricted free agent and guarantee himself more money. It’s hard to know what the Cavs will do with Speights now that they’ve elected not to flip him for an asset. Is keeping him an indication that they intend to sign him in the offseason or did they just get lowballed when shopping him? How you feel about Speights going forward probably hinges around what sort of contract he’s on. Is two years and $12M palatable? Is four years and $21M a deal-breaker? It all depends on how much you value a bench big with a nice jumper and a nasty streak.
The Wayne Ellington situation is less complicated. I don’t see much reason why the Cavs wouldn’t match any reasonable offer Ellington receives in restricted free agency. They could use a spot-up shooter off the bench, and as much as I would like Boobie Gibson to be that player, Ellington is a taller, less frequently injured version of Gibson. I think unless an opposing GM confuses Ellington for O.J. Mayo, Ellington will be in wine and gold for the next couple of seasons.
C.J. Miles will likely be back next season at $2.25M. Do you really want me to break down C.J. Miles? I refuse. You can’t make me. (Fine: he shoots too much, and I kind of hate him. Moving on.)
Shaun Livingston has been a revelation at the backup point guard spot. After picking through the scrap heap—Donald Sloan, Jeremy Pargo—it appears that Cavs have found their man. What I like best about Livingston is how well he complements the rest of the backcourt because of his versatility. He’s a nice defensive player who can guard multiple positions, and he’s happy to play off the ball or run the point. You can put him in three-guard lineups if you want. He just fits in well on this team, and he rarely makes mistakes. He’s like a guard version of Nick Collison, which is high praise. I hope the Cavs lock him up this offseason.
The Scrap Heap:
Omri Casspi is a restricted free agent but for whatever reason hasn’t been able to crack the rotation. (Okay, I’m being coy: he’s not very good, but the Cavs had the worst bench in the league before Speights and Ellington showed up.) I would imagine he’ll ply his trade elsewhere when the season’s over.
Everyone in Cleveland’s heart sings for Boobie Gibson, I’m sure. He’s overpaid at $4.5M this season simply because he can’t stay on the court. If he wants to sign a one-year or two-year deal at a discount, I’m all for it, but it’s hard to be optimistic about player who has a habit of missing big swaths of seasons.
Luke Walton, friend of Flemish Renaissance painter Pieter Breugel until Breugel passed away in 1569, is a free man after this season. If you put his brain in Andray Blatche’s body, he’d be a borderline all-star, but unfortunately Walton has the body of a particularly athletic gym teacher. I don’t know if he’ll try to prolong his NBA career (perhaps even with the Cavs), go to Europe, or retire, but I’ve noticed that he genuinely seems to get a kick out of playing with this young Cavs team. If I were Byron Scott or Chris Grant, I would ask if he wants to take up a coaching role in the organization whenever he decides to stop playing basketball.
* * * * *
So that’s more or less where the Cavs stand heading into the final third of this season. The obvious holes are at the starting center and small forward slots, but you knew that. What do you think the Cavs should do to patch those deficiencies? What sort of price would you pay for Marreese Speights? Was Sartre right when he argued that a text is not a concrete object, but something produced only through a dialogue between reader and language? Answer in the form of a sonnet.
“Walton has the body of a particularly athletic gym teacher”
That is fantastic.
I wish Walton all the best.
Nice post.
Backcourt is set and looks like it’ll be great
We could use a shiny new center. Hopefully we’ll get one in the draft.
As far as the bench goes, I think we’ll see big changes next year.
I can see the Cavs looking at Speights as a player they would love to have back for one more year at $4.5 million but they wouldn’t resign him to another contract for $6 million or more per year. It is now pointless to talk about trading Andy because he can’t have any tangible trade value. Andy should be a super sub off the bench on a minute count (20-25) to keep him in the lineup. Can you really spend a quarter of the salary cap on two bench bigs? I wouldn’t. If Speights opts out, I’d wish him well and use that salary space for a guy who can start at SF or C or use it via trade to land an impact player rather than a bit player.
Josh Selby?
Just kidding.
I got to catch Cavs at Wizards at Christmas, and did appreciate seeing Walton coaching our young bigs from the bench–between points, even just momentarily. I thought it was pretty cool, actually.
I love this, from HoopsHype: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/cleveland.htm
(What we like, what we’re stuck with, etc.)
I’m thinking that the Cavs might be in a position to keep Speights if he opts out of his current contract. They will have CAP room for next year and might be able to give him a 2-3 year contract with only year one guaranteed. They will have more CAP room than most teams so they can overpay if necessary. I don’t see too many scenarios where he gets a multiyear guaranteed contract from anyone, since most teams will want to keep their CAP space options open for the Great FA Migration of the summer of 2014. Those guaranteed contracts will be available only to big time players this summer.
Does anyone think the conventional wisdom that Speights will opt-out should be challenged? If GMs were equally convinced he would opt out then he is an expiring contract (valuable), and if he is better than his contract AND expiring he is even more valuable and yet, the Cavs didn’t move him or (at least publicly) have any potential offers for him.
I’m not saying he won’t opt out, but I just think this new CBA has GMs very reluctant to overpay for a 3rd or 4th big with an inconsistent jumper. I mean, the Grizzlies flipped him for nothing (albeit to cut costs) and the Cavs didn’t find any takers despite his supposed value and skill. I truly wouldn’t be surprised if he re-upped with the Cavs for one more year, and really wouldn’t mind paying him 4.5 next year if he did. Makes some sense too–with likely every team trying to create flexibility for the summer of ’14, it’s likely that his agent’s strategy would be to get paid 4.5 next year and then get one of the losers of the Lebron sweepstakes to overpay him as a consolation. Plus he’ll get some consistent burn next season with the Cavs to showcase his wares. Thoughts?
“a difficult Super Meat Boy level”
I know what you mean, but that’s still pretty redundant.
One more year of development, and this team can compete for playoff berth.
Walton is gifted; check his assists/minutes played. He is the finest playmaker the Cavs have had since Andre Miller played here. Bring him back and let him help coach.
CJ Miles is a great shooter and a fine slasher.
Livingston is an excellent playmaker; Speights uses his body well and has a good touch.
All we need is for Zeller, Waiters and Thompson to refine their games, and for Kyrie Irving to begin creating shots for other players occasionally and improve his man defense.
If the young players continue to develop, the Cavs will be a good team in 2014-15.
I really don’t want Speights here. If we draft a big there is only going to be a limited amount of playing time available with Andy, Tristan, Zeller and our drafted taking up most of it, and I don’t think it is in the Cavs best interest to invest a lot of money on Speights.
I’m not a big fan of Speights game. Yes he brings in that toughness and grit (that I like) but he also hoists up way to many shots and never (and I truly mean never) looks to pass the ball. He is always forcing shots and there seems to always be a player open because the other team collapses when he gets the ball (because they also know he isn’t going to pass)
On a team that has to strive off ball movement, the ball always seems to get stuck when he has it. We have the cap space to be able to get another player that better fits this team. If Speights is willing to to 6 mill or less and is fine with playing limited minutes then I might be fine with it, but I wouldn’t overpay to have him on our team.
Andy (Wild Thing) is NOT a starting NBA center. He has filled in rather nicely due to not having a starting NBA C, but Andy is a PF. Just MHO.
Bric, No one more year. It should not take that. A couple of added pieces and the Cavs should be going to the playoffs next year. Kyrie is a budding superstar. You really want to give him a third year of losing basketball dude? Kyrie’s third year should be the year the Cavs make the leap. Barring serious injury to a core player, if the Cavs don’t get the 8th seed at worst next year, then this isn’t working. We are not in the Western Conference. The Cavs can, should and better get an 8th seed next year. That’s the REAL next step of “development”. These players need a taste of playoff basketball. Kyrie needs a taste of playoff basketball. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, unless you want to become the Sacramento Kings, u better start winning soon. It doesnt matter if they lose in the first round. OKC started in the playoffs as the 8th seed. But youve got to statt somewhere. Unless you know who comes back, the Cavs are still probably 3-4 years away from being a CHAMPIONSHIP caliber team. But in order to become a CHAMPIONSHIP caliber team u have to become a PLAYOFF caliber team first. The longer you wait to become a playoff caliber team, the longer it’ll take to become a championship caliber team. You willing to sell Kyrie on not even legitimately contending for a playoff spot until his 4th or even 5th year in the league? I didn’t think so. Next year: playoffs or bust.
With the natural development of Kyrie, Thompson, Waiters and Zeller they should be able to make the playoffs next year. Dion has already improved greatly from the start of the season. He was phenomenal in the win against the Hornets. Thompson is lightyears more polished on offense than he was at the start of this season. Kyrie’s been more engaged defensively. Zeller got a seat at the adults table when he should have been at the fold out card table, but he should improve as well.
They’ll have a bounty of trade assets to add around their young core along with most likely another top 7 pick. The Cavs have nearly been a .500 team since January. Between the pups natural progression, the return of Andy hopefully in a middle relief super sub role and their flexibility to add to the roster this should be a better team than the Bucks, Hawks and maybe the Celtics. The rebuild thus far appears to be working.
Jean-Christian says:
February 21, 2013 at 9:32 pm
“a difficult Super Meat Boy level”
I know what you mean, but that’s still pretty redundant.
What I would like to know is how do you half-heartedly play SMB?
Also for those of you who are terrified of the Cavs killing themselves in the lottery because of their improved play it’s pretty doubtful they will climb ahead of the 6th worst record. Detroit is 4 games ahead of them in the East. It’s pretty doubtful the Cavs will climb ahead of Detroit or Toronto (4.5). The Cavs probably will pass Phoenix (.5). As bad as that Kings (1.5) trade was long term, it probably improves them slightly this year. Robinson was giving them nothing. Patterson should be able to stretch the floor and Aldrich will give them a decent big off the bench. New Orleans is also a game and a half up on the Cavs. If the Hornets finish ahead of Cleveland it could come down to how much Eric Gordon plays over the rest of the year.
So we might get the best of both worlds. Improved play by the Cavs and a final record that shows growth and still have the 5th or 6th best odds in the draft.
Backcourt is Set
Draft Shabazz Muhummad/Otto Porter with our first pick
Ellington/C.J/Gee pretty good wing backups
Thompson has PF set
Resign speights
Andy Returns
Greg Oden flyer
Zeller gains 15+ pounds in his upper body
Agree with Luis,
Speights, Oden, Andy create a little bit of a minutes crunch but one will get hurt
Exciting team if everything works out…. Development determines playoff chances/spot
Cory Hughey: I agree with pretty much everything you just said. The thing I don’t agree with at all is your assertion that Kyrie “has been more engaged defensively. Even Kyrie rejects that notion. Now, I don’t ever expect him to be anything more than serviceable. He will be a legit MVP candidate once the Cavs make the playoffs, but they can’t make the playoffs until he is middle of the pack. Besides, for the Cavs to be any better as a team defensively, he needs to show the effort. Once your best player starts trying on the defensive end, the rest of the team follows. I’ll make it simpler: try as hard as Dion does and I’ll be satisfied.
Adam: Spot on my friend. I presented your exact lineup to my Dad yesterday, and we said natural progression makes us a 6-8 seed next year minus any long term injuries. Getting a 6 seed might even afford a realistic chance at winning a first round series.
Of course adding LBJ to a trending upwards young playoff team makes them an INSTANT contender. The absolute key in all of this is the first round draft picks that don’t belong to the Cavs. The crippler for good teams that are maxed out financially is that they always draft at the bottom of the first round. The Cavs will have the ability to be use their own pick as well as a late round lottery pick/mid round pick belonging to another team. To be a playoff team and add legit young talent is what will sustain the whole thing. I particularly like the 2015 Miami 1st round pick.
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed
As long as LBJ doesn’t stay in Miami, that looks like another lottery pick after the Heat has to detonate that squad. Lastly, LBJ is the game changer. IF he doesn’t come here, the Cavs future is still very bright. Solar flash bright like if we had LeBron? No. Young OKC bright? Quite possibly. Fun times ahead indeed.
EDIT::Of course adding LBJ to a trending upwards young playoff team makes them an INSTANT contender. The absolute key in all of this is the FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICKS THAT DON’T BELONG TO THE CAVS. The crippler for good teams that are maxed out financially is that they always draft at the bottom of the first round. The Cavs will have the ability to be use their own pick as well as a late round lottery pick/mid round pick belonging to another team. To be a playoff team and add legit young talent is what will sustain the whole thing. I particularly like the 2015 Miami 1st round pick.
What I meant was the picks that the Cavs didn’t originally own but procured via trades. Need more coffee.
I’m not against resigning Luke Walton for a minimum contract, just to fill out the team.
I think you are being far too harsh on Zeller. The guy may never be a starting caliber center, but to write him off now is premature. The guys biggest weaknesses are exactly what you would expect from a rookie big man (strength and defense). The guy hasn’t had an NBA offseason yet, a time when he can work on his biggest weakness (his literal weakness). He improved significantly every year at UNC in almost every catagory and shows a good work ethic as much as TT does. He’s had a hard (though not horrible) time playing as a starter at center the first half of his rookie year, and that tells us what exactly? That he’s not shaq or dwight? duh. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be a starting caliber center.
He’s older, so he has less expectation for growth, but he’s still about 4 years from his prime, he will get better. And no matter how seasoned you are in college, the NBA game is a different animal and most players have an adjustment period, especially defensively. If he keeps getting better at anything close to the pace he improved at UNC for the next 2 or 3 years, then he’ll be a solid, maybe even above average starting center. It might, and maybe even probably won’t happen, but its way to early to write it off.
Disagree strongly with the sentiments on Alonzo Gee. He’s the starting SF for the long run because A) with decent defenders on the inside, the Cavs need to start at least ONE defensive stopper playing the perimeter; Kyrie and Dion, who save themselves for offense anyway, do not provide much presently, and B) Kyrie and Dion are both excellent scorers who can create shots, etc, and TT and Varejao are active big men who can, as we’ve seen, chip in 10-15 points each per game… For those insisting on starting a scoring SF option, when is this player getting his touches playing with two other ball-dominant teammates in the backcourt? No, in this incarnation of the Cavs, a spot up 3 guy is all that’s needed from the starting SF on offense — granted, ‘Lonzo could stand to develop in this department (don’t forget, he’s young), he retains the starting job due to his vastly underrated ability to play 3-4 positions on D guarding the opponent’s best scorer.
Of course this all changes when Lebron comes back, but it’s usually okay to reshuffle your team’s system when the #[1-10] player of all time comes back to town. In conjunction with all that, I don’t think the team would end up keeping Dion if (when) Lebron comes back to the Cavs.
KyrieSwIrving, you just took the words out of my mouth. Way too harsh on Zeller. All he needs is confidence and a bit of weight. When you watch him play, he doesn’t look confident like he did last year in college. He just needs to hit the gym and get used to being on the court. He’ll be a starting center for a decade.
For Speights, I wouldn’t tie big money up on him. He doesn’t give a consistent effort. If he takes the option, cool. I can’t see paying more than $5 mill for a streaky 2nd big off the bench (when Varejao is back).
CJ Miles, yes he shoots a lot but that’s why he’s in the NBA. I love having a veteran scoring off the bench for just over $2 mill. He’s not great, but he provides offense off the bench.
Livingston has played alright but I really don’t think he’s a point guard at this point. The guy doesn’t look comfortable taking more than 2 dribbles. He can’t shoot well. He’s a versatile guy off the bench but I think some people here are getting a little caught up. If we can keep him for $2-3 mill a year like Miles, it’s worth it but I wouldn’t offer more.
To fill the SF spot, how about drafting Victor Oladipo from Indiana? An elite defender who can guard PG-SF and knock down the 3 ball. He loves to run and score in transition. He’s only 6’5″ so that calls in to question his ability to guard big SFs, but I think he’s the best fit for this team. The guy barely made the top 150 prospects coming out of high school. He’s improved greatly due to his hard work in the gym. He’s shooting up the draft boards (9 on DraftExpress, 5 on Chad Ford’s). What do you guys think?
I will never be able to understand why ANYONE ANYWHERE would want Daniel Gibson on this team. He contributes nothing….one of the few players in the league who peaked as a rookie and has been a disaster ever since. Useless player.
Good article, though.
Vesus, I disagree. Gibson isn’t worth $4 million a year, but I’d like to keep him for $1.5. He’s just a good team guy, and a big CLE supporter. One of the few guys that spoke up when Lebron left. He’s still useful as a 3 pt specialist. A good guy to have in the locker room.
@ Luis
I sort of agree on Speights. Dude needs to start passing more. You would think playing with Walton and Livingston would help that but maybe not.
Also, if we are following the OKC blueprint, then we absolutely must make the playoffs next season. 8th seed and Miami matchup is fine with me. OKC had a very nice 2nd half run in Durant’s 2nd year and I think they finished with 30 some wins. We should get close to that mark and then snatch a playoff berth in Kyrie’s 3rd year ala OKC and KD.
Agree with people defending Zeller. You would think CtB would learn that players can and do get better.
I agree with Vesus, but i do still have a soft spot for Gibson. I don’t want us to sign him, don’t want to see him on the court, but wouldn’t be opposed to having him on a cheap contract to watch from the bench either.
Carson, we don’t need or want a ball dominant SF (unless its some sort of transcendent talent now residing on south beach) but a SF who could hit a 3 would be nice. Alonzo Gee is not that (career 33% hitting a career low 31%) . He’s not that young either, at 26 and in his 4th year, his play has leveled off and he’s probably just about as good as he’s going to get. His defense is inconsistent and overrated anyways. He’s the cavs best perimeter defender, but not by much now that we have Ellington, and once Dion gets better with off the ball defense he’ll be just about as good as gee (though less versatile). Overall Gee is just an above average defender who doesn’t really have any other above average skills. We can and should strive to do better for a starter on what we want to be a championship caliber team. I still like him as a backup though.
As far as Speights goes, even 4-5 million is a lot to spend on your 4th (or 5th if we draft a C and keep andy) big man. Grant loves his Cap flexibility and doesn’t want to overpay role players, so I think if we sign him its an indication they are going to be trying hard to move Andy.
Also regarding my defense of Zeller, that doesn’t mean I’d be opposed to drafting a Center if that’s the best player available with our top 10 pick, but I think SF is definitely our biggest need.
@Bill, I love Oladipo, But I think we would start him at the 2 and bring Dion off the bench… Backup both guard positions, and Play all three in small ball situations/Coming down the stretch
@Carson, Gee has made himself a real player in this league, but I really think he is vastly overrated as a Defensive player, he has a defensive mindset and Byron puts him on the opponent’s best wing/guard because Kyrie/Dion are not committed defenders, He really doesn’t have the quickness to guard smaller players, plays passing lanes well, and guards bigger wings pretty well
I could be wrong based on advanced metrics, but watching him he tries really hard to D people up but they score on him more then people should score on a “Defensive Stopper”
Agree with SwIrving, give Zeller some time, and still have a soft spot for Gibson, but thats all it is
I wish I could join everyone in the hope and dream phase of Zeller’s future. He’s not four years from his prime, he’s just about to hit it.
http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/
The guy spent four years at a top tier college program, there shouldn’t need to be so much of an adjustment period that everyone wants to give him. And besides, it’s not like he’s just having trouble with a quicker game or getting caught out of position defensively. He isn’t shooting or blocking out well, and those are the skills that more easily translate from college to the pros.
I know, I know, everyone will want to give me a “give the guy time to develop”. Sure, he’s a worthwhile backup, so keep him on the roster and hope and pray, that’s fine. But I have no idea where such optimistic projections come from. A starting center for a decade? Do people even realize how few guys actually do that?
Re: NBA players aging like milk, it’s interesting to me that APM numbers usually indicate the opposite — older players have a greater impact on +/- numbers than their box score stats would lead you to believe. But I guess Wages of Wins bases their analyses on box score stats. Or two of them, anyway, rebounds and fg%.
It’s weird to me that Zeller is apparently a divisive player and yet there seems to be agreement that Waiters is the future. Are we watching the same guy? You really have to be accentuating the positive to see a long-term starter there. If you watched tape of 2001 Dejuan Wagner and 2012 Waiters back to back, I don’t think anybody would pick 2012 Waiters first in the Altered Timeline Redraft.
Considering that both scouts and advanced metrics like Hollinger’s draft ratings liked Waiters coming out of college, I think the Dejuan Wagner comp is dumb.
And yeah, this draft we’ll be looking SF and C. I think center if Noel or Len is there, if not they’ll probably go SF.
Good point about Zeller being older. Beyond that though, he will definitely be a good rotation big guy. So he sin’t shooting or blocking out well AS A ROOKIE. What is it that makes people think going from college to the NBA would be easy?
It’s not. Almost every rookie struggles, even at the stuff they are supposed to be good at. So yeah, I think Zeller will develop just fine. But what do I know, I thought Waiters would develop just fine too and he already is!
What is it about Waiters that people don’t get? Is it that he can get to the hoop against anyone? That he has been shooting 49% over his last ten games? That he’s been getting more calls as he gets used to the NBA? That he isn’t bad from the outside?
Why do people insist on seeing the glass as half empty on Waiters? What did the guy do to you?
JDW – It helps Waiters a lot that is two years younger than Zeller. That is a huge difference in development (and potential development) at this point.
And I think a lot of the areas we see Waiters struggling are where we see a lot of young players having to adapt to the NBA. Being able to harness the athleticism is one of the last skills learned. On the other hand, where Zeller was supposed to succeed, hitting mid range jumpers and grabbing rebounds, are skills that guys take much more seamlessly to the NBA.
@SwIrving & Adam: I just respectfully disagree that Alonzo is overrated on defense — he’s powerful and athletic, and the guy picks up a lot of slack for Kyrie and Dion, so he doesn’t always look so good. And advanced stats won’t cover the little things we don’t see off the ball, in transition, etc; I put some degree of faith in Byron Scott’s assessment of his player as a top perimeter defender. At 26 years old, Alonzo might not be “fledgling” anymore, but shooting and defense are two of the facets players actually do tend to continue improvement on later in careers. Of course that doesn’t mean he WILL improve, and agreed, his shooting IS subpar at the present. Regardless, he’s no abyssmal shooter, and defense is half the game; I still say he can be a starting 3&D guy on a playoff team. #CavsOptimist
Steve, no matter how long you spend in college, you are still playing against college players. Its very different, especially defensively, when all of a sudden everyone you play against is bigger/better/more athletic than the very best players on the college teams you faced. Pardon me for giving him more than half a season before I come to a conclusion.
Some guys can come in and dominate offensively in the NBA right away, but almost no one comes in and dominates defensively right away, and almost everyone that is a decent NBA defender today is much better now than when they entered the league, regardless of how old they were when they entered the league. Also your link is chalk full of un-backed statements, and doesn’t take into account the difference between big men and gaurds, or how old the player was when drafted, which will make a difference. The article also seems to make no mention of how much of that decline can be attributed to borderline NBA players and journeymen who work themselves out of the league in their mid twenties (we can probably assume that Zeller will, barring injury, still at least be a backup into his 30s). For that matter, how much of that decline is from injuries as well? Yes, zeller isn’t immune to injuries, but at the same time you can’t really handicap his ceiling based on the misfortune of others.
None of this comes close to gauranteeing that Zeller ever becomes a good/decent center, but you can’t write him off.
Right, like I predicted, the argument simply is something to the extent of ‘lets see him develop and see what happens’. That, to put it simply, is a non-answer. You can say that about anyone under 25 in this league if you really wanted to.
And you’re right, the study isn’t perfect. I’ll wait for your highly detailed analysis proving it wrong or your admittance that perfect isn’t the enemy of good. If we’re counting on mediocre looking players to break the model curve, we’re going to end up pulling our hair out in frustration.
And if it simply was Zeller having trouble dominating defensively, I would be ecstatic with his results. But, you’ve created a ridiculous strawman. I hate repeating myself, but you’ve attacked a point I did not make and ignored the one I did, the kid is not hitting mid-range jumpers or getting good position on rebounds. Those are skills that good-enough players do generally demonstrate fairly soon.
And I never wrote him off, another strawman. I’m questioning where people see this long-term starting center, other than in their wishcasting.
I’m inclined to think Zeller will be okay. He’ll be a quality starter by his third year as he fills out and adjusts. I’m not at all worried about him.
Here’s how I see our depth chart next year:
PG: Irving, Livingston, Waiters
SG: Waiters, Ellington, Miles
SF: Gee, Robinson III, Ellington
PF: Thompson, Speights, Varejao
C: Zeller, Varejao, Noel or Len
Here’s how I see the draft going down, to make this happen:
Cavs end up in the top 5 and take Noel or Len, whichever is available. Assuming the Lakers end up with an 8th seed, we then trade back up into the top 12 or so to take Robinson III, our SF of the future. His comp is Iguodala, which is exactly the type of guy we need to take over for Gee eventually.
This is a roster that I see as 6-8 seed next year. We become a serious contender the year after that.
Josh
Speights and Varejao will not be on the team next year.
Speights I’d say is 50/50.
Varejao will be here. You can count on it.
“And I think a lot of the areas we see Waiters struggling are where we see a lot of young players having to adapt to the NBA.” Oh and Zeller struggling at defensive awareness and handling stronger post players can’t be attributed to this? Cause I know the vast majority of young big men usually struggle to adapt in those areas.
Yes, Zeller’s jump shot isn’t where we want it and it may not get better, but its not as awful as people make it out to be either, and he was quite effective in college without using it much. Also it situationally is decent, as long as he’s looking to splash it and isn’t distracted by the potential for a bank shot. http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/player/shotchart/1408-Tyler-Zeller/season/2012-2013-REG
You can see from the chart that straight on and from the baseline he’s above average at shooting long 2′s, and abysmal from the 45 degree angle areas. If he can’t figure out how to shot from there, he could just reduce his shots there and still be a stretch player. I’m gonna give him more than 50 games to prove himself.
Carson, outside of J-Kidd, very few players go from a never-even-been-average-at-3-point-shooting-26-year-old to an above average long range threat. Ya, he’s not abysmal, but the only season he shot better than 33% he only took 9 threes. He’s bad at threes. You can call him a D guy, but 3 and D simply doesn’t fit. With Tristan’s limited range, and the frequency with which Dion and Kyrie should be driving, I want a SF that can hit 3′s at an above average rate to give them room to go to work. If Alonzo develops that, great, but I wouldn’t alter my roster decisions based on the slim chance that happens. Also, Byron was talking about Alonzo being best perimeter defender on the team, which I agree with, but its not saying much. And given Dion’s intensity, age, and current performance, I’m confidant in time he’ll become a better option for defending opposing 1′s and 2′s than Alonzo, and as long as our replacement SF is at least average on D, it won’t be much of a drop off on opposing 3′s.
KyrieSwIrving: “Carson, outside of J-Kidd, very few players go from a never-even-been-average-at-3-point-shooting-26-year-old to an above average long range threat.”
Of course, that could just be because they all die before they get that far out on the age curve.
Fair enough steve. I can’t be mad at people named steve.
I certainly haven’t penciled t-zell in as our answer. My original defense of Zeller, who has certainly been underwhelming, was to the tone the article stating that Zellers future is a bench player so matter of factly. Fact is, we don’t know yet. If the article stated he was probably going to be a backup, that’d be fine. But it doesn’t, it groups him with backups, gives condolences to those who wanted more from the 18th pick, and mentions that we must find our next target to groom into a starting Center since its so obviously not Zeller. I have no problem picking another center in the draft since Zeller is definitely risky at this point, but I don’t think trying to groom him for a year if we pick a SF is a bad option either.
And Cols, Verajoa will be here, unless you actually have a trade you’d like to propose.
SwIrving,
Cols would trade Varejao and Speights for a stick of bubble gum and a charms blow pop, the rational of how they will be leaving the cavs will be interesting at least
Yeah, I guess I’m just hoping. Speights, I don’t think has been good since his first 2 or 3 games here and Andy is constantly injured. I’m tired of him.
And no, I don’t have to propose a trade. No GM is going to pick up the phone when I call them. I just think they should be traded.
And really, getting a good backup center, if that’s all Zeller is, with the 18th pick in the draft would be fantastic.
I don’t understand why there is so much pessimism in regards to Zeller. We picked him with the 17th pick in a decent draft, similar to where Speights was picked (16th in 2008), who happens to be a 3rd/4th big man on most teams. Don’t get me wrong, Zeller has struggled at times this year but I also think he has shown some great flashes. When/if he turns into a more consistent player he can’t be any worse than a backup center, I would say that’s his floor. Are we all hoping for much more than that? Of course, but I think we need to keep our expectations in check.
Interesting, I was trying to find a player in a similar situation to Zeller, and Andrea Bargnani was easily the closest I found based on 6’10+ 21yr+ rookie scoring 8 pts a game and <43fg%. He had incredibly similar rookie year at one year younger. Bargnani scored more, rebounded a lot worse, had a worse Ast/TO ratio, and shot 3's instead of long 2's, but other than that pretty similar.
Bargnani being grossly overpaid aside, if Zeller became that type of player down the line, (but a better rebounder, better defender (charges!), and definitely a worse scorer due to long 2's instead of 3's, better passer) that would certainly be a starting caliber if unspectacular center.
I know the 3's vs. long 2's is a big difference, but other than that the comparison was pretty interesting to me. I see them both having the same purpose on the floor to similar net results in their first year. If Zeller continues along that path but with better rebounding, defense, and passing, but worse scoring efficiency, I could live with that. I think replacing Alonzo in the starting lineup would definitely take precedence at that point.
@SwIrving, No sane GM would alter roster decisions based on Gee, but at the same time the Cavs roster given its current personnel needs one thing at starting SF: the best possible defender who can drive down open lanes and hit 3′s once and again — a 3&D guy. And you’re right, it is a stretch to call Gee a 3&D guy at this point, but of all the potential starting SF’s that could (realistically) be traded for/scooped in free agency, the only ones I can think who would shoot better drive-and-kick 3′s don’t play better D than G. Forget draft options, rookies suck at defense — and right now the Cavs need defense more than that floor-spacing 3 on offense, especially considering they have excellent shooters at other positions and very few high level wing defenders. Now, how good is Alonzo actually at defense, I don’t know. Better than the other guys starting in the backcourt with him. I also agree that Dion has the attitude and ability to be a real good defender, which would in turn phase out much of Gee’s importance. But I still think we should get comfortable watching ‘Lonzo start for the Cavs the next season or so, and I guess my whole thing is that that’s a better situation than people think
@SwIrving, No sane GM would alter roster decisions based on Gee, but at the same time the Cavs roster with its current personnel needs one thing at starting SF: the best possible defender who can drive down open lanes and hit 3′s once and again — a 3&D guy. And you’re right, it is a stretch to call Gee a 3&D guy at this point, but of all the potential starting SF’s that could (realistically) be traded for/snagged in free agency, the only ones I can think who would shoot better drive-and-kick 3′s don’t play better D than G. The Cavs need defense more than that floor-spacing 3 on offense; they have excellent shooters at other positions and very few high level wing defenders. Now, how good is Alonzo actually at defense, I don’t know. Better than the other guys starting on the outside with him. I also agree that Dion has the chops to be a real good defender, which would in turn phase out much of Gee’s importance. But I still think we should get comfortable watching ‘Lonzo start for the Cavs the next season or so, and I guess my whole thing is that that’s a better situation than people think.
Carson you just fed the comment monster for a year. Hopefully he goes into hibernation. Sorry about that.