Larry C. Morris/The New York Times
The Cavaliers have been an order of magnitude better since trading with the Grizzlies for Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington. But the trade deadline is nine days away. Should Cleveland be looking to keep Mo, or trade him for some more assets? Nate Smith and Mallory Factor square off.
Nate: It’s simple really. In all likelihood Speights will be a free agent this off season. Since being traded to Cleveland, he’s averaged 13.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1 assist, and .8 blocks with 1.3 turnovers in 22.9 minutes a night. He’s shooting .450/.333/.882 for a TS% of .526, with a PER of 19.6 according to basketball-reference. These are pretty good numbers. So now the Cavs have a bench player who can play both center and power forward, has a cap number of $4.2 million, and has a player option for $4.5 million next year. He’s certainly going to have value for a team looking to make a playoff run. Furthermore, the only way Speights doesn’t opt out is if he turns into Roy Tarpley, or if he gets hurt. If that happens, why would the Cavs even want to pay him $4.5 million next year?
Why wouldn’t Cleveland try to get an asset for him when they could just sign him in the off season anyway? At that point, it doesn’t matter if he’s a Cleveland free agent or a San Antonio free agent. Marreese Speights isn’t a sacred cow. He’s just a basketball player. If Chris Grant gets a chance at a 2014 pick, why wouldn’t he take it?
Oh, and the bloom is already coming off the rose. Speights has started regressing to his bad habits: drifting in games, and taking too many jumpers. In his first six games as a Cavalier, Speights averaged 14.7 points on .529 from the field, and 7.3 rebounds in 24.6 minutes. In his last three games? 11 ppg on .281 FG%, and 3.7 rebounds in 19.5 minutes. He is shooting well from the charity line, with a 12-12 game, and a 3-4 game, but the numbers back up the book on Marreese. He is a player who plays hard… sometimes. And he’s a player that takes too many jump shots. If Dani Socher has taught me anything, it’s sell high. The Cavs should trade Marreese Speights before his numbers plummet further.
Mallory: You make some excellent points, Nate, but you miss the overlying issue with trading Speights – it’s time for this team to not be a abysmal. It’s no coincidence that the recent success came off the heels of the trade. Speights has been an absolute beast for this team. When you consider what The Cavs’ bench was composed of before, versus now, it’s even more apparent that the real value from that trade came in the form of the big man. The fact is, the team’s bench looks better now than it has since the LeBron era. You yourself said that the bench outplayed the starters against the Timberwolves. You’re really willing to give up that cohesiveness for what will likely not match Speights’ output?
Nate: Yes, I’m absolutely willing to give up some of that cohesiveness for a couple months, and then get it back in the summer. I’m not too sold on the Cavs recent success, either. Monday’s game proved that the Cavs, especially the young players, have a lot of growing up to do. Ten weeks of Mo Speights is not going to turn a sniping Tristan and Kyrie into the zen of Larry Nance and Mark Price. Furthermore, why would Cleveland want to keep winning this season? They’re costing themselves ping pong balls with each win. True, this isn’t the greatest draft, but I’d rather a good player in a bad draft than a bad player in a bad draft.
The trade goal should be to flip Mo for some draft picks in 2014. What if the Cavs could trade Mo and a second round pick in 2014, to get a second 1st rounder? Something like this: Gibson, Speights, Casspi, and a 2014 2nd rounder (one of Cleveland’s two), for Nando De Colo, DeJuan Blair, Stephen Jackson (who’d be immediately bought out), and San Antonio’s 2014 first rounder, top 5 protected. It makes Cleveland worse short term and better long term. The trade nets the Cavs another misunderstood big man, a point guard prospect, and another chip in the loaded 2014 draft class, and if the spur falls off the boot next year for San Antonio, then it’s all the better. Do it for this year and next year’s draft. Do it for Shabazz! Do it for Nick Gilbert! Don’t deny him the draft lottery spotlight!
Mallory: You and I have greatly disagreed on the ultimate ends to this season, so I’m going to skip over the discussion about win now vs win later – it’s a much longer discussion for another time. The fact is that this team feels more fluid than it ever has before . The risk of disrupting a good dynamic for someone who would likely be less known than Speights (who, let me remind you, is only 25) is too high to make it worthwhile. The chance that Speights re-signs with whatever team he ends the season on is always going to be higher than it will be that he’ll sign with another team. Lets say Speights gets traded for a middling round pick in any given draft – isn’t the most likely scenario for whatever that player turns out to be worse than Speights himself?
Your hypothetical trade is great, yes, but I HIGHLY doubt any team gives up that much for Speights. He’s quickly turning into one of those guys who is worth endlessly more to this Cavs team (who need a multi-functional big) versus other teams. Additionally, with all the excitement over the 2014 draft, I doubt those picks will go for cheap – even if they’re middle round picks that, in all likelihood, won’t even end up being players better than Speights.
Basically, unless Cleveland can package Speights with some guys for a KNOWN player or a DEFINITE top 5 pick, there’s no reason to do it. His value in the short and long term is as a guy who helps the development of players like Kyrie, Dion (who has played MUCH better with Speights on the team than before), and TT. As guy who can be part of the not-so-distant future, that is substantially higher than what the Cavs would get in return.
Speights: Gellin'... like a felon.
Nate: The crux of your argument is, “Cleveland’s gelling right now. Getting rid of Speights could stop that and hurt their long term development.” I just don’t see it. Kyrie Irving is not going to look back some day when he actually turns into Uncle Drew and say, “that ten extra weeks I got to play with Mo Speights in the spring of ’13… it changed everything.”
The second focus of your argument is that Speights will be more likely to sign with the team the Cavs trade him to than with the Cavs. You might be right if it’s a team like the Spurs. Mo might get a taste of winning, and never want to leave. But, he could also get buried on some team and never want to re-sign there because he won’t get an opportunity like he would with Cleveland.
Your third argument is that Cleveland won’t get enough to make it worth their while: the trade has to be worth the increased risk of not signing him in the off-season. But you’re forgetting that the Cavs could decide not to trade Speights, and then get nothing if he leaves. The fact that the Cavs gave up little to get him doesn’t matter. He’s an asset, and letting him leave for nothing is a bad business decision – like the movie, Rock of Ages bad.
Chris Grant doesn’t know what other teams will offer him till he tries. A top five pick probably isn’t going to happen, but as the last few years have shown, having multiple first round picks greases the wheels in a lot of trades. One never knows if the jewel Cleveland gets for selling high on Marreese Speights is the extra little scale tipper needed to get a superstar in the future.
Mallory: Look, I get Speights isn’t a fanchise-changing guy. At least not in the superstar Kyrie way. (I’d argue that Mo’s arrival has changed the Cavs over the past month, but whatever). The point is that he’s become a big part of the way this team runs. His averages have been great, his tenacity is absurd, and he fits the team’s needs perfectly. If Cleveland trades him, I doubt he looks back and says “now that’s the team I want to go back to,” but if they keep him, I bet he ends up re-signing.
Chances are, whatever they get in a straight-up trade or a trade where Speights is the featured piece – whether it be a pick or a prospect – will not end up being up to his caliber as a bench guy. (Lets put it this way – who, in the last month, has been a better player: Tyler Zeller or Speights? Think that kind of pick.) Why would the Cavs risk losing Speights just because they want to keep making deals?
If a mind-blowing trade comes along, where the Cavs trade Speights, Zeller, Walton’s contract, plus their #1 pick for Cousins or something, then duh I’d pull that in a heartbeat (note: I have no idea if that trade works), but for another shot in the dark? No way. At some point they have to look at this roster, say to themselves, “This is the foundation for success. We’ll add another piece or two, and then we’re big time contenders.” Speights alone will likely not change that landscape. So why rock the boat?
…
So who wins, Commentariat? Should Cleveland keep Mr. Speights or attempt to trade him?
Andysav -
Agreed it’s irrelevant because he wouldn’t yield us that – but I used it for the sake of argument.
I say we keep mo unless we can get a solid, young, cheap asset or a near sure lottery pick. Neither is likely, so I side with keeping him. I think there is a much bigger chance of Marreese resigning in Cleveland for a reasonable number than a 20-30 pick in 2 years being of better use. Everything depends on the specifics, but I see no reason running around with our pants on fire trying to get rid of Marreese before we lose him for nothing. He’s not exactly a huge asset, if you are willing to trade him for a low 1st round future draft pick, then really its not much of a step back, and certainly worth the cohesion he currently brings, the chemistry he helps us build, and the not unrealistic chance he sticks around. Then again, I’m not of the opinion that chemistry, teamwork, defense, effort and thusly winning, are switches that can simply be flipped. The fact that we are learning how to win earlier will make our guys more excited to go to work, trust each other more, put forth more effort throughout practice, and pay dividends down the road. Trading speights and going on a 30 game losing streak to end the season (exaggeration here people) would have many more effects than just the assets we bring back and the better draft odds.
People
Keeping Speights at the deadline does not make him more likely to sign here. Trading Speights does not make it less likely that he signs here.
What part of he is going to be a free agent after this season don’t we get?
Here’s the thing about trading Speights for picks. Given the sort of picks we would get for him, what are we going to do with them? We already have more draft picks then we will ever have roster spots. Sure packaging those picks for a better pick sounds great but at best that’s gonna get you what a 15th pick at best most likely. I love this bench (even Walton, I just cried a bit at saying that) and it’s chalk full of savvy veterans who know how to play as a cohesive unit. Gibson, Casspi (tear…), and either miles or Ellington will probably be gone so we have the ability to add young guys to the bench or fill holes in the bench/starting unit. We are at the end of assert building let’s keep a bench that is tough, entertaining and good together.
@Cols714
While in theory trading Speights does not change his ability to sign with the Cavs in the offseason, you’re being a bit disingenuous when you say it doesn’t make him less likely to sign here. I don’t know him personally but I would think that with most people the team that traded you for a late first round pick (if that) after you came in midseason and played well for them would not be your first choice.
Besides that I think the most valuable possible asset we can get from Speights is if he decides to pick up his player option. Another year of him at 4.5 million dollars is most likely better than better than any pick we could get without taking back a terrible contract (and most likely better than the pick we would get if we did take back a terrible contract). Giving up the possibility of having him pick up his option next year or negotiate an affordable long term deal in the offseason isn’t worth the assets we would get back from trading him.
Um no. He will sign with the team that offers him the best contract.
Just to be clear, we are arguing about a guy whose career averages are 7.6 pts and 4.4 rebounds per game.
@Cols714
I would say that more that money goes into who signs where. Take Ray Allen, he left his team and took less money this offseason, because he felt disrespected by his benching (to be fair Miami also gave him a better shot at a ring). Just saying that these are real people, and just like anyone of us, can possibly be motivated by things other than money.
But even if we are talking purely on terms “best contract”, you have to take into account that Cleveland and other small market teams traditionally have to overpay to sign free agents. It is easier for these teams to get people to resign with the team for a lower rate than it is to try and get a free agent to do so. Keeping him here in the future without having to overpay him is much more likely if he isn’t traded.
@Cols in 16.4 minutes per game. Hey, those stats look pretty good now!
7.6 and 4.4 in 16.4 mins per game btw Cols
That’s 16.8/9.6 per 36 minutes.
OK. Then think to yourself why he only gets 16 minutes per game if he’s all that.
And no Andysav, the Ray Allen comparison is not remotely comparable. He already had a long career and made tons of money. This next contract might be the only decent one Speights gets to sign. He’s not going to take a discount to play for Cleveland just because they didn’t trade him.
Anything other than Speights agreeing to sign off on his opt out option probably means the end of the Speights era in Cleveland. I just don’t see Grant being willing to guarantee anything beyond next year to anyone who isn’t a franchise cornerstone. The sad part is if Mo opts out of his contract he may be hard pressed to get much more than that $4.5M his current contract would give him. There will be only 10-15 teams that will have CAP space available next year and there will be almost that many quality PFC FA’s. Factor in that most teams will want to retain CAP space for the Great FA Migration of 2014 and his contract will probably only have one year guaranteed anyway. Those potential FA’s that the 10-15 teams will be bidding over could include Al Jefferson, Millsap, West, Josh Smith, Elton Brand, Kaman, Blatche, Landry, Hickson, Mullens. Lamar Odom, Pekovic, Mosgov, Splitter and a few others who are possibly breaking out. Remember to that a draft deep in bigs will fill some of those roster holes and much less expensively. There are a half dozen or more potential NBA role playing bigs who will be available for about $1.5M give or take .5M. As a good fit skillset-wise Speights might be best served to stay put.
Flip that around and all of those players and draft picks are options for the Cavs as well. Considering that Zeller, TT and Varejao are already in the barn, plus the Oden situation, the Cavs will have options also.
In the last 10 games its 22.8 mpg, 13.4 and 6.1
I’d like to see them find a way to keep Speights. But the guy I really hope they find a way to hang onto is Livingston.
@cols714
He’s averaged 16.4 minutes a night because he’s a bench player. That’s what were talking about. Whether we should keep a solid bench player or try and trade him for a future pick or other assets. No matter what you think the Cavs need to do this year (and for the record I am solidly with you on the development of the young guys should be the focus front) they need to be able to compete for a playoff spot next year. Good teams have good players coming off the bench. A future late first round pick won’t help us compete for a playoff spot next year. Speights will.
Also just for the record I am not convinced that Speights will not pick up his player option for next year. As Jag pointed out a lot of teams will be saving their money this offseason and there are a number of bigs that are gonna get big money deals before Speights.
Completely with you, Evil Genius – LOVE Livingston.
I hope they trade Speights. I think they will. No need to overpay for guys like that.
I agree with Mallory here, i love Livingston as well.
Evil Genius and Mallory are all over it with their thinking on Livingston. He is the perfect third wheel in a guard rotation with Kyrie and Dion. His court vision and distribution skills would be hard to replace and add in his size and he may be a one of a kind good fit. Speights is a great fit also but there are others who will be available with similar skillsets that the Cavs could add to their mix.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t trade Speights under any circumstances, but we should at least acknowledge that he’s a better than average bench player. If it were so easy to find guys like that we wouldn’t have had to play Hollins, Erden, Gody, etc (who else am I missing?) so many minutes the past few years.
Not trading Speights does not equal overpaying Speights. Especially if he picks up his player option. If he doesn’t and ends up getting a big offer from a different team then we let him walk.
I absolutely love Livingston and I think shouldnt be that hard to keep. He’s a minimum contract guy whose been bounced around the league and has about as big of an injury history a player can have.
I also think its a no-brainer to extend the QO to Ellington is the offseason. $3.5 Mill isnt anything for a knock down shooter off the bench and we have to spend to reach the salary floor anyway.
If you guys all remember right before his injury livingston used to be the next magic johnson. I say hold onto him even if you have to overpay by a few hundred thousand dollars, I mean we have to spend cap anyways right?
so why aren’t the cavs showing any interest in trying to make a move for josh smith? it seems to me this is an area that helps now and next year with a team that has alot of young assets that they could put togethor to acquire him and still have cap space left over. like giving up gee, one of our many big’s not named zeller which could leave a nice starting core of waiters, irving, smith and zeller for next year which in the east could easily put the cavs into the playoffs. you even can give up an early pick this year with the overall quality of this draft being nothing the cavs could really plug into their rotation that would contribute anytime soon.
“The fact is that this team feels more fluid than it ever has before . ”
Er, that’s definitely not a fact. I know it’s a lot more fun for you to talk about the Cavs winning but the bench is the last piece you build not the first.
I could be wrong, but I was under the impression that you can’t sign a player for a year after you trade him away now. I recall something along that line being said about Derek Fisher when the Lakers traded him last year.
I’d like for the Cavs to resign Mmaarreessee but I’m completely against them overpaying to keep him. $6 million would be about as far as I’d go for the guy. Love his game, but overpaying for marginal talent is one of the most dangerous sins you can make running an NBA team. We’ll have a better idea of what he is with a larger sample size. He’s cooled off a bit after his hot start.
Cory –
Totally agree. I think 6 mil is overpaying, but not criminally. Any more is definitely outside of what I’d pay.
Cory, a player who is traded and then waived cannot re-sign with the team that traded him until July 1 at the earliest.
http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2011/11/28/two-new-trade-rules-in-the-new-cba/
So after July 1st, it’s all good.